BRUSSELS ― EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas privately told lawmakers the
state of the world meant it might be a “good moment” to start drinking.
Kallas told leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament that
while she is not much of a drinker now may be the time to start given events
around the globe, according to two people who were in the room.
She was speaking around the same time as foreign ministers from Greenland and
Denmark were meeting U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco
Rubio over Donald Trump’s threats to seize the Arctic island.
The EU’s top diplomat ― who coordinates the bloc’s foreign policy on behalf of
the 27 governments and the European Commission ― cracked the joke in a meeting
of the Conference of Presidents, a meeting of the Parliament’s group leaders.
Her comments came after top MEPs started wishing each other a happy new year.
The same MEPs added that global events meant it wasn’t that happy, according to
people in the room.
With fears in Europe that Trump might annex Greenland, mass protests against the
Islamist regime in Iran, as well as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza
and the U.S. operation in Venezuela, geopolitics has become the EU’s most
pressing issue. One of Kallas’ most recent moves was to tell POLITICO that she
was prepared to propose fresh sanctions against Iran following the government
crackdown that has reportedly killed hundreds of people.
Kallas’ spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Tag - Parliament
BRUSSELS — The European Parliament’s leading trade lawmakers on Wednesday
postponed a decision on whether to freeze a U.S. trade deal over Donald Trump’s
threat to annex Greenland.
MEPs are due to hold a vote on Jan. 26, laying out the European Parliament’s
position on lifting tariffs on U.S. industrial goods — one of the key planks of
a deal struck between Brussels and Washington last summer. But some MEPs, angry
at Trump’s behavior, don’t want the vote to go ahead, thereby freezing the
decision on lifting the tariffs.
But at a meeting of lawmakers leading on the topic, they decided to delay taking
a decision on whether to postpone or go ahead with the vote, awaiting the
outcome of high-stakes meetings between Washington, Nuuk and Copenhagen taking
place later Wednesday.
“We are not in a position to move the agreement to a vote today,” lead trade
lawmaker Karin Karlsbro, of the liberal Renew Europe, told POLITICO, adding that
clarity from the U.S. on Greenland was essential.
Discussions will continue next Wednesday, the chair of the international trade
committee, Bernd Lange, told POLITICO as he left the room.
Political groups are divided over what to do in response to Trump’s threats to
annex European territory.
The Socialists and Democrats, of which Lange is a member, are leaning toward
freezing the vote on the trade agreement.
“One camp is more like, OK, let’s cooperate with the U.S. in order to get the
maximum out, and there’s the other camp that says, OK we also need to show teeth
and not give in on everything,” explained Green lawmaker Anna Cavazzini, who is
also the chair of the internal market committee.
Cavazzini, who is in favor of freezing the deal, added that lawmakers agreed to
delay the decision to “observe the global situation,” adding that the groups
also need to agree on specific clauses in the final Parliament text.
The U.S. deal “will not be postponed,” assured EPP lawmaker Željana Zovko,
telling POLITICO on Wednesday that any delay would hurt businesses as it would
bring instability to transatlantic relations, while only Russia and China would
benefit from it.
Under the deal struck in July, the EU committed itself to legislation lifting
tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and lobsters, in exchange for Washington
reducing tariffs on European cars.
The deal is seen as lopsided in favor of Washington across party lines, but
lawmakers were willing to put up with it in exchange for having Trump commit to
protecting European security. As Greenland annexation threats continue, some no
longer see the point of the deal.
While the U.S. has upheld its end of the bargain on the car tariffs; the EU, so
far, has not, because its institutions must still approve their positions on the
Commission’s proposal. The lengthy process has already tested Washington’s
patience, with Trade Representative Jamieson Greer telling POLITICO in December
that the U.S. wouldn’t grant further tariff exemptions unless the EU keeps its
end of the bargain.
After the Council of the EU agreed on its position in late November, pressure is
rising on the European Parliament to vote on its own stance.
PARIS — Marine Le Pen conceded Tuesday that she may have unwittingly broken the
law on the tense first day of an appeals trial that will determine whether she
can stand in France’s presidential election next year.
The surprising comments from the longtime face of the French far right signal a
major shift in strategy as she attempts to get a French court to overturn a
five-year ban on running for office after she, her party — the National Rally —
and several other codefendants were found guilty of embezzling European
Parliament funds.
The case has loomed large over Le Pen’s political future and its outcome will
likely determine whether she or her protégé Jordan Bardella will represent the
far-right party in the 2027 presidential race. Both are polling as front-runners
in the contest.
Le Pen had for months protested innocence and framed the case against her as
politically motivated, but her comments and stoic behavior Tuesday differed
markedly from the combative face she wore at the start of the initial trial in
2024.
When the judge asked Le Pen why she was appealing, she insisted that any
criminal act they may have committed had not been intentional — a departure from
her impassioned claims of innocence throughout the initial trial.
“I would like to say to the court right now that if a crime has been committed …
so be it, but I want the court to know that we never felt like we had committed
even the slightest offense,” she said.
Le Pen dodged questions from reporters as she arrived and left court. She also
declined to talk informally with the press during recesses, as became customary
in the first trial.
In a rare pre-trial statement, Le Pen told reporters Monday that her “only line
of defense for this appeal will be the same as it was during the initial trial:
telling the truth.”
“The case will be reset and judged by new magistrates. I hope to be better heard
and to convince them of my innocence,” she said.
EU PARLIAMENT’S MOST TOXIC DUO BRINGS TROUBLE FOR VON DER LEYEN
Social Democrat chief Iratxe García and center-right boss Manfred Weber’s dire
relationship is Brussels’ worst-kept secret.
By MAX GRIERA
in Brussels
Illustration by Natália Delgado/ POLITICO
A confrontation six years ago poisoned a relationship at the heart of the EU
that remains toxic to this day.
Manfred Weber, the powerful German head of the center-right European People’s
Party, the largest political family in Europe, knew something was wrong when
Iratxe García walked into his office shortly after the 2019 EU election.
García, a Spanish MEP who leads the center-left Socialists and Democrats group
in the Parliament, was accompanied by Romanian former liberal chief Dacian
Cioloș. The pair told Weber that they wouldn’t support his bid to become
president of the European Commission, despite the Parliament’s longstanding
position that the head of the party receiving the most votes in the election
should get the job.
While Cioloș is long gone from the EU political scene, García and Weber remain
in post — and the animosity between them has only grown, especially now that the
EPP is aligning with the far right to pass legislation.
García’s move killed Weber’s Commission ambitions, souring relations between the
two and threatening Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s ability to deliver
her second-term agenda, as she needs the support of senior MEPs to pass
legislation.
The pair are like “two toxic exes who had a good relationship, but Weber cheated
on García with the far right, and this makes it hard for the Socialists,” said
Manon Aubry, co-chair of The Left group in the Parliament.
Today, the dire relationship between Weber and García is the talk of the town.
For decades, the EPP and S&D — the two largest political families in Europe
— have worked hand in hand to provide stable majorities in the Parliament,
including backing a second term for von der Leyen at a time of unprecedented
crises facing the bloc. Now that stability is in doubt.
POLITICO spoke to 12 officials and lawmakers who are or have been close to the
pair. Some say the problem is personal, while others blame politics and argue
that anyone in their position would have the same relationship issues.
“Weber and García have become a problem for von der Leyen,” said a senior
Commission official, granted anonymity to speak freely, as were others in this
piece.
That’s because disagreements between their two groups could lead to less
predictable voting in the Parliament, as happened in November with the
simplification bill on green reporting rules for businesses, when the EPP sided
with the far right rather than with the centrists.
Tensions have also spilled toward von der Leyen herself, with García accusing
her of “buying into Trump’s agenda” by pushing deregulation. Center-left MEPs
have urged the Commission president to rein in Weber over his cooperation with
the far right.
RELATIONSHIP TAKES A DOWNTURN
Verbal attacks in the Parliament’s hemicycle, tensions over Spanish politics,
opposing views on the EU’s green ambitions and migration policy, and the fact
that the EPP is voting for laws with the far right have eroded what started as a
promising relationship.
Weber “will never get over the big treason when Iratxe backstabbed him on the
Commission presidency,” said a senior EPP MEP.
“Everyone needs to stay calm and keep emotions out of it,” said a senior
Socialist MEP, noting that many lawmakers, including commissioners, often
express concern about the emotional undertones of the relationship.
Manfred Weber “will never get over the big treason when Iratxe backstabbed him
on the Commission presidency,” said a senior EPP MEP. | Filip Singer/EPA
Publicly, both insist relations are just fine. “I really appreciate the strong
leadership of Iratxe, she’s a tough representative,” Weber told POLITICO,
describing the relationship as in a “great state.”
“I can confirm that we have good and regular talks to each other, but we also
see our different political positioning,” he added.
García also played down the perceived friction, saying the pair have a “working
relationship” and “try to understand each other,” while stressing that despite
their differences, it is “much more normalized than you might think from the
outside.”
The reality, according to MEPs and staffers close to the pair, is that six years
of working side by side have eroded trust.
Weber sees García as incapable of delivering on her promises due to the S&D’s
internal divisions and weakness, as it has lost power and influence across
Europe; García views Weber as power-hungry and willing to empower the far right
at the expense of the center.
PERSONAL ATTACKS
In her September 2025 State of the Union address, von der Leyen tried to bridge
the widening rifts between the EPP and the Socialists by giving policy wins to
both sides and calling for unity.
But her efforts came to nothing as Weber and García exchanged personal attacks
on the hemicycle floor, each blaming the other for the instability of the
pro-European coalition.
Weber accused Garcia and the Socialists of “harming the European agenda.” During
her remarks, the S&D chief shot back: “You know who is responsible for the fact
that this pro-European alliance … does not work in this Parliament? It has a
name and surname. It is called Manfred Weber.”
The exchange reflected a relationship under strain, as the EPP pushed
deregulation, weaker green rules, and a crackdown on migration backed by
far-right votes after the 2024 election shifted the Parliament to the right.
Sidelined by that new math, the Socialists have increasingly felt alienated and
have hardened their attacks on von der Leyen for embracing a right-wing
deregulation agenda, and on Weber for empowering the far right in general.
“The only way for Iratxe to survive is to be more aggressive with EPP and with
Manfred,” said a former centrist lawmaker, who argued that García is leaning on
rhetoric to rally her base as concrete wins are in such short supply.
For his part, Weber is unapologetic about sidelining traditional centrist
allies, arguing that the end — tackling policy issues the far right has
weaponized against the EU, notably migration and overregulation — justifies the
means.
“He could not be Commission president so he has been pushing to be a power
broker from the Parliament, which means he needs to show he can push for
whatever EPP wants, which includes using the far right,” a second senior EPP MEP
said of Weber.
BETRAYAL
Weber and García started their collaboration after the election in 2019, when
the latter was chosen as the group leader of S&D after serving as an MEP since
2004 and chair of the committee on women’s rights between 2014 and 2019.
For the first two years they were united in their goals of delivering on the
Green Deal and addressing the Covid-19 pandemic, but the relationship began to
deteriorate in the second half of the term.
In a mid-term reshuffle of the Parliament’s top posts, Weber struck a backroom
deal with the liberals of Renew and The Left to keep the powerful position of
the Parliament’s secretary-general in the hands of the EPP. García had wanted
the job for S&D because the previous secretary-general was from the EPP, as is
Roberta Metsola, who was about to become the Parliament’s president.
Ursula von der Leyen tried to bridge the widening rifts between the EPP and the
Socialists by giving policy wins to both sides and calling for unity. | Ronald
Wittek/EPA
“This was a moment of tension because she really thought she would get it … she
took it very personally,” said the senior Socialist MEP. “Her position in the
group was also affected by that; she got a lot of criticism.”
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s reelection in 2023 further strained
relations. Weber has for years been betting on the fall of Sánchez, backing
Spain’s EPP-aligned opposition (the People’s Party, or PP) and giving them free
rein in the Parliament to attack the Spanish Socialist Party, knowing that the
EPP would be boosted with an EPP party in power in Madrid.
“He does everything the People’s Party wants,” said a liberal Parliament
official, who added that “every time Spain is on the agenda, it becomes a
nightmare, everyone screaming.”
The most recent example came in November, when the EPP sided with far-right
groups to cancel a parliamentary visit to Italy to monitor the rule of law in
the country, while approving one to Spain — sparking an outcry from García, whom
EPP MEPs frame as Sánchez’s lieutenant in Brussels.
“It generates a toxic dynamic,” echoed the first senior EPP MEP.
BREAKING POINT
The Spanish issue came to the fore during the 2024 hearings for commissioners,
when MEPs grill prospective office-holders to see if they are up to the task.
Under pressure from his Spanish peers, Weber and the EPP went in hard on
Sánchez’s deputy Teresa Ribera, blaming her for deadly floods in Valencia in
October 2024.
While the EPP wanted to take down Ribera, the Socialists hoped to make life
difficult for Italy’s Raffaele Fitto, who was put forward by Prime Minister
Giorgia Meloni. While Fitto is not from the EPP (he’s from the European
Conservatives and Reformists), his nomination was supported by Weber. In the
end, the S&D went easier on Fitto in order to save Ribera from further attacks.
After weeks of tensions — with both Weber and García visibly furious and
blasting each other in briefings to the press — both Ribera and Fitto were
confirmed as commissioners.
The struggle highlighted that the old alliance between the EPP and the S&D was
cracking, with Weber snubbing García and instead teaming up with the far right.
While they still meet to coordinate parliamentary business — often alongside
Renew leader Valérie Hayer and von der Leyen — the partnership is far less
effective than before.
“It’s very clear they’re no longer running Parliament the way they used to,”
said The Left’s Aubry.
The breakdown has injected instability into the Parliament, with the once
well-oiled duo no longer pre-cooking decisions, making outcomes more
unpredictable. Aubry said meetings of group leaders used to take place with a
deal already struck — “political theater,” as she put it.
“Now we walk in and don’t know where we’ll end up,” Aubry added.
“While they get along personally, the results of that cooperation are not that
good,” said the second EPP MEP, adding that the alliance between the EPP and the
S&D has “not really delivered.”
LOOKING AHEAD TO YET MORE BATTLES
The next reshuffle of top Parliament jobs is in 2027, and Weber and García are
already haggling over who will get to nominate the next Parliament president.
The EPP is expected to try to push for Metsola getting a third term, but the
Socialists claim it’s their turn per a power-sharing agreement after the 2024
election. Officials from the EPP deny such an agreement exists while officials
from Renew and the S&D say it does, although no one could show POLITICO any
documentation.
The EPP is expected to try to push for Roberta Metsola getting a third term, but
the Socialists claim it’s their turn per a power-sharing agreement after the
2024 election. | Ronald Wittek/EPA
That’s a major headache for García. The S&D’s Italian and German delegations are
itching to get leadership positions, and if the Parliament presidency is off the
table they could try to replace her as party chief.
With tensions simmering, one Parliament official close to the pair half-joked
that García and Weber should settle things over an after-work drink — but it
seems the détente will have to wait.
“I’d definitely go for a drink,” Weber said with a nervous laugh before noting
that both are “so busy” it probably won’t happen. García, also laughing, was
even less committal: “I’ve become a real homebody. I don’t go out for drinks
anymore.”
BRUSSELS — Even after most member countries backed the EU’s landmark trade
accord with Latin America, opponents of the deal in France, Poland and the
European Parliament are still determined to derail or delay it.
As a result, even after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flies
to Paraguay this Saturday to sign the accord with the Mercosur bloc after over
25 years of talks, it could still take months before we finally find out when,
or even whether, it will finally take effect.
The culprit is the EU’s tortuous decision-making process: After the curtain came
down on Friday on deliberations in the Council, the intergovernmental branch of
the bloc, a new act will now play out in the European Parliament. Ratification
by lawmakers later this year is the most likely outcome — but there will be high
drama along the way.
“It has become irrational,” said an EU diplomat, speaking on condition of
anonymity. “If the European Parliament refuses, we will have a European crisis.”
Proponents argue that the deal with Mercosur — which groups Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay and Uruguay — is the bloc’s best shot at rallying friends across the
world as the EU tries to counter Donald Trump’s aggressive moves (the latest
being the U.S. president’s threats to annex Greenland).
But more than 140 lawmakers are already questioning the legal basis of the
agreement, concerned that it breaches the EU treaties. They want it sent to the
Court of Justice of the EU for a legal review, which could delay it for as long
as two years.
Political group leaders agreed before the Christmas break to submit this
referral to a vote as soon as governments signed off on the deal. That vote is
now expected at next week’s plenary, a official with the Parliament said.
Yet while the rebel MEPs have enough votes to call a floor debate, they likely
lack the majority needed in the 720-seat Parliament to pass the resolution
itself.
“I don’t think that the substance of the legal challenge is going anywhere. This
is fabricated, it’s a lot of hot air — both in terms of environmental [and]
health provisions, in terms of national parliaments. All of this has been tried
and tested,” said David Kleimann, a senior trade expert at the ODI Europe think
tank in Brussels.
LEGAL ROADBLOCKS
The challenge in the Parliament is only one front. The deal’s biggest opponents,
Poland and France, are also fighting back.
Polish Agriculture Minister Stefan Krajewski said Friday he would push for the
government to also submit a complaint to the Court of Justice.
“We will not let the deal go any further,” he said, adding that Poland would ask
the court to assess whether the Mercosur pact is legally sound. On the same day,
protesting farmers spilled manure in front of his house.
“We will not let the deal go any further,” said Polish Agriculture Minister
Stefan Krajewski. | Olivier Matthys/EPA
Polish MEP Krzysztof Hetman, a member of the center-right European People’s
Party and a political ally of Krajewski, said the referrals of the Parliament
and of member states would play out separately with the same aim in mind.
“If one succeeds, the other might not be necessary,” he said, adding that while
the court considers the complaint, the deal would effectively be on ice.
French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, is under huge pressure from his
political opponents to do more to stall the deal. France, Poland, Austria,
Ireland and Hungary voted against the deal last week while Belgium abstained.
That left the anti-Mercosur camp shy of the blocking minority needed to kill the
deal.
On Wednesday, the National Assembly will vote on two separate no-confidence
motions submitted by the far-right National Rally and the far-left France
Unbowed.
Even if opposition to the Mercosur deal remains unanimous, the two motions have
little to no chance of toppling the French government: The left is unlikely to
back the National Rally text, while the center-left Socialists are withholding
support for the France Unbowed motion. But nothing can be ruled out in France’s
fragmented parliament.
REALITY CHECK
Even some of the rebel MEPs admit their challenge is unlikely to succeed — and
that the Parliament might still back the overall deal in a vote later this
year.
“It will be very difficult now that the Council has approved it,” said Hetman,
the Polish MEP. “The supporters of the agreement know this, which is why they
sabotaged the vote on the referral in November and December.”
Others opponents still see a chance to topple it, and are optimistic that the
legal challenge can gather enough support.
“We want to delay the Mercosur adoption process as long as possible,” Manon
Aubry, co-chair of The Left group, told POLITICO before the Christmas break. She
also saw signs that a majority of MEPs could come out against the deal: “I bet
there are even more MEPs willing to make sure that the agreement is fully in
line with the treaties.”
If the judicial review is rejected, the Parliament would hold a yes-no vote to
ratify the trade agreement, without being able to modify its terms.
Such a vote could be scheduled in the May plenary at the earliest, Bernd Lange,
the chair of the chamber’s trade committee, told POLITICO. Lange, a German
Social Democrat, said he was confident of a “sufficient” majority to pass the
deal.
Pedro López de Pablo, a spokesperson for the EPP — von der Leyen’s own political
family and the EU’s largest party — vowed there was a majority for the agreement
in the EPP and dismissed the legal maneuvering.
“It is clear that such a move is politically motivated to delay the
implementation of the deal rather than the product of a legal analysis,” he
said.
Giorgio Leali contributed to this report.
LONDON — U.K. ministers are warning Elon Musk’s X it faces a ban if it doesn’t
get its act together. But outlawing the social media platform is easier said
than done.
The U.K.’s communications regulator Ofcom on Monday launched a formal
investigation into a deluge of non-consensual sexualized deepfakes produced by
X’s AI chatbot Grok amid growing calls for action from U.K. politicians.
It will determine whether the creation and distribution of deepfakes on the
platform, which have targeted women and children, constitutes a breach of the
company’s duties under the U.K.’s Online Safety Act (OSA).
U.K. ministers have repeatedly called for Ofcom, the regulator tasked with
policing social media platforms, to take urgent action over the deepfakes.
U.K. Technology Secretary Liz Kendall on Friday offered her “full support” to
the U.K. regulator to block X from being accessed in the U.K., if it chooses to.
“I would remind xAI that the Online Safety Act Includes the power to block
services from being accessed in the U.K., if they refuse to comply with U.K.
law. If Ofcom decide to use those powers they will have our full support,” she
said in a statement.
The suggestion has drawn Musk’s ire. The tech billionaire branded the British
government “fascist” over the weekend, and accused it of “finding any excuse for
censorship.”
With Ofcom testing its new regulatory powers against one of the most
high-profile tech giants for the first time, it is hard to predict what happens
next.
NOT GOING NUCLEAR — FOR NOW
Ofcom has so far avoided its smash-glass option.
Under the OSA it could seek a court order blocking “ancillary” services, like
those those processing subscription payments on X’s behalf, and ask internet
providers to block X from operating in the U.K.
Taking that route would mean bypassing a formal investigation, but that
is generally considered a last resort according to Ofcom’s guidance. To do so,
Ofcom would need to prove that risk of harm to U.K. users is particularly
great.
Before launching its investigation Monday, the regulator made “urgent contact”
with X on Jan. 5, giving the platform until last Friday to respond.
Ofcom stressed the importance of “due process” and of ensuring its
investigations are “legally robust and fairly decided.”
LIMITED REACH
The OSA only covers U.K. users. It’s a point ministers have been keen to stress
amid concerns its interaction with the U.S. First Amendment, which guarantees
free speech, could become a flashpoint in trade negotiations with
Washington. It’s not enough for officials or ministers to believe X has failed
to protect users generally.
The most egregious material might not even be on X. Child sexual abuse charity
the Internet Watch Foundation said last week that its analysts had found what
appeared to be Grok-produced Child sexual abuse material (CSAM) on a dark web
forum, rather than X itself — so it’s far from self-evident that Ofcom taking
the nuclear option against X would ever have been legally justified.
X did not comment on Ofcom’s investigation when contacted by POLITICO, but
referred back to a statement issued on Jan. 4 about the issue of deepfakes on
the platform.
“We take action against illegal content on X, including Child Sexual Abuse
Material (CSAM), by removing it, permanently suspending accounts, and working
with local governments and law enforcement as necessary. Anyone using or
prompting Grok to make illegal content will suffer the same consequences as if
they upload illegal content,” the statement said.
BIG TEST
The OSA came into force last summer, and until now Ofcom’s enforcement actions
have focused on pornography site providers for not implementing age-checks.
Online safety campaigners have argued this indicates Ofcom is more interested in
going after low-hanging fruit than challenging more powerful tech companies. “It
has been striking to many that of the 40+ investigations it has launched so
far, not one has been directed at large … services,” the online safety campaign
group the Molly Rose Foundation said in September.
That means the X investigation is the OSA’s first big test, and it’s especially
thorny because it involves an AI chatbot. The Science, Innovation and Technology
committee wrote in a report published last summer that the legislation does
not provide sufficient protections against generative AI, a point Technology
Secretary Liz Kendall herself conceded in a recent evidence session.
POLITICAL RISKS
If Ofcom concludes X hasn’t broken the law there are likely to be calls from OSA
critics, both inside and outside Parliament, to return to the drawing board.
It would also put the government, which has promised to act if Ofcom doesn’t, in
a tricky spot. The PM’s spokesperson on Monday described child sexual abuse
imagery as “the worst crimes imaginable.”
Ofcom could also conclude X has broken the law, but decide against imposing
sanctions, according to its enforcement guidance.
The outcome of Ofcom’s investigation will be watched closely by the White House
and is fraught with diplomatic peril for the U.K. government, which has already
been criticized for implementing the new online safety law by Donald Trump and
his allies.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy raised the Grok issue with U.S. Vice President JD
Vance last week, POLITICO reported.
But other Republicans are readying for a geopolitical fight: GOP Congresswoman
Anna Paulina Luna, a member of the U.S. House foreign affairs committee,
said she was drafting legislation to sanction the U.K. if X does get blocked.
PARIS — A court appeal begins on Tuesday that will determine whether Marine Le
Pen or her protégé Jordan Bardella will head into next year’s presidential
election as favorite from the far-right National Rally party.
While Le Pen has been a decisive force in making the anti-immigration party the
front-runner for the presidency in 2027, she is currently unable to succeed
Emmanuel Macron herself thanks to a five-year election ban imposed over her
conviction last year for embezzling European Parliament funds.
She is now appealing that decision in a case that is expected to last one month,
although a verdict is not due until the summer.
Le Pen looks set to fight her appeal on technical legal objections and an
argument that the ban is disproportionate, rather than going out all-guns
blazing and insisting she is the victim of a political hit job.
If she does overcome the very steep hurdles required to win her case, she will
still have to deal with the political reality that the French electorate are
leaning more toward Bardella. The party’s supposed Plan B is starting to have
the air of a Plan A.
A poll from Ipsos in December showed the 30-year-old overtaking Le Pen as the
French politician with the highest share of positive opinions. And a survey from
pollster Odoxa conducted in November showed Bardella would win both rounds of
the presidential contest.
The National Rally continues to insist that Le Pen is their top choice, but
getting her on the ballot will likely require her to win her fast-tracked appeal
by setting aside her personal grievances and perhaps even showing a measure of
uncustomary contrition to ensure this trial does not end the way the
embezzlement case did.
Le Pen is not famous for being low-key and eating humble pie. Shortly after her
conviction, she said her movement would follow the example of civil rights’ icon
Martin Luther King and vowed: “We will never give in to this violation of
democracy.”
That’s not the playbook she intends to deploy now. Her lawyers will pursue a
less politicized strategy to win round the judges, according to three far-right
politicians with direct knowledge of the case, who were granted anonymity to
discuss it freely.
“We’ll be heading in with a certain amount of humility, and we’ll try not to be
in the mindset that this is a political trial,” said one of trio, a French
elected official who is one of the codefendants appealing their conviction.
LINE BY LINE
Le Pen and 24 other codefendants stood trial in late 2024 on charges
they illicitly used funds from the European Parliament to pay party employees by
having them hired as parliamentary assistants. But those assistants, the
prosecution argued, rarely if ever worked on actual parliamentary business.
The National Rally’s apparent defense strategy back then was to paint the trial
as politicized, potentially winning in the court of public opinion and living
with the consequences of a guilty verdict.
The attorneys representing the defendants could did little to rebut several
pieces of particularly damning evidence, including the fact that one
assistant sent a message to Le Pen asking if he could be introduced to the MEP
he had supposedly been working with for months.
Given how severely the defense miscalculated the first time
around, lawyers for many of the 14 codefendants in court this week will pursue
more traditional appeals, going through the preliminary ruling “line by line”
to identify potential rebuttals or procedural hiccups, the trio with direct
knowledge of the case explained.
A survey from pollster Odoxa conducted in November showed Bardella would
win both rounds of the presidential contest. | Telmo Pinto/NurPhoto via Getty
Images
Defense lawyers also plan to tailor their individual arguments more precisely
to each client to avoid feeding the sentiment that decisions taken at the
highest levels of the National Rally leadership are imposed on the whole party.
The prosecution during the initial trial successfully argued that National Rally
bigwigs hand-picked assistants at party headquarters to serve the
leadership rather than MEPs.
Le Pen’s lawyers will also argue that her punishment — barring a front-running
presidential candidate from standing in a nationwide election
— was disproportionate to the crime for which she was convicted.
The appeals’ court ruling will have seismic consequences for French politics and
Europe ahead of one of the continent’s most important elections. The path toward
the presidency will be nearly impossible for Le Pen if her election ban is
upheld.
Le Pen has indicated in past interviews that she would throw in the towel if she
received the same election ban, given that she wouldn’t have enough time to
appeal again to a higher court.
Should Bardella replace her and win, the consequences for the French judicial
system could be profound. One of the codefendants floated the possibility of a
response along the lines of what U.S. President Donald Trump did to those who
prosecuted him before his reelection.
“The lingering sense of injustice will remain and can eventually evolve into a
quest for revenge,” the codefendant said.
At least two members of the Slovak government responded on Sunday to a violent
attack on a prominent journalist by criticizing his writing.
Slovak political commentator Peter Schutz, 70, was attacked by an unknown
assailant on Saturday afternoon at a shopping center in Košice, eastern
Slovakia. He required hospital treatment including surgery on a broken femur.
The assault happened in a public washroom in a well-frequented mall in
Slovakia’s second-largest city, according to the Sme national daily. Schutz, a
leading comment writer for Sme since the 1990s who frequently appeared on
political talk shows, has been roundly critical of the current government, led
by Prime Minister Robert Fico, now in his fourth term.
Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok, who heads the country’s police force,
condemned violence in general but added “it must be noted that the public space
[in Slovakia] has long faced polarizing and dehumanizing statements, which
increase tensions in society. Not even an alleged attack on a commentator can
diminish his responsibility for words that helped inflame emotions and divide
the public.”
Environment Minister Tomáš Taraba, meanwhile, wrote on social media that
“Commentator Schutz” is known for his “extremely aggressive statements toward
people.”
Taraba, who was elected to the Slovak parliament in 2020 for the far-right Our
Slovakia People’s Party, said “such violent attacks must be condemned, even with
people who belong in the hands of the law.” He added that the Slovak justice
system “does not work and pretends that journalists are above the law.”
Police in Košice said they were “actively and intensively” investigating the
attack on Schutz as an assault, with spokesperson Jana Illésová saying the
journalist had been discovered by a passerby on the floor of the washroom.
Slovakia has experience of violence on media, none more shocking than the 2018
murders of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina
Kušnírová, which led to the resignation of the government at the time, also led
by Fico.
The prime minister himself was severely injured in a shooting in May 2024 that
he blamed at least partly on Slovak media.
“Why did they shoot me in the stomach? You hounded us like bloodthirsty bastards
from morning to night,” he told journalists in October 2024 after having
recovered from his wounds.
General Prosecutor Maroš Žilinka wrote on Facebook following the attack on
Schutz that “physical attacks on another person must not be a means of
ventilating the tensions and frustrations that have accumulated in society.”
Roman Krpelan, Sme editor-in-chief, wrote that “we want to believe that this
attack on our colleague was not related to his work.”
Nordic governments are rejecting U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertions that
Russian and Chinese vessels are operating near Greenland, warning that the
claims are not supported by intelligence and are fueling destabilizing rhetoric,
the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
Two senior Nordic diplomats with access to NATO intelligence briefings told the
FT there is no evidence of Russian or Chinese ships or submarines operating
around Greenland in recent years, directly contradicting Trump’s justification
for U.S. control of the Arctic territory.
“I have seen the intelligence. There are no ships, no submarines,” one diplomat
told the paper.
Trump has claimed that Greenland is “covered with Russian and Chinese ships” and
argued that the U.S. must take control of the island for national security
reasons — rhetoric that has intensified in recent weeks.
Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide also told Norwegian broadcaster NRK
that there was “very little” Russian or Chinese activity near Greenland, despite
ongoing Russian submarine movements closer to Norway itself.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, meanwhile, said at an annual security
conference in northern Sweden that Stockholm was “highly critical” of what the
Trump administration was doing and had done in Venezuela, in regards to
international law.
“We are probably even more critical of the rhetoric that is being expressed
against Greenland and Denmark,” Kristersson added, explaining that the
rules-based international order is under greater strain than it has been in
decades.
Kristersson said the U.S. should recognize Denmark’s long-standing role as a
loyal ally, instead of agitating about Greenland. “On the contrary, the United
States should thank Denmark,” he said.
Leaders of all five parties in Greenland’s parliament reiterated that stance
late Friday, saying in a joint statement: “We do not want to be Americans, we do
not want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders.”
The leaders of the five political parties in Greenland’s parliament have a
message for U.S. President Donald Trump: Leave us alone.
“We do not want to be Americans, we do not want to be Danes, we want to be
Greenlanders,” the party leaders said in a joint statement Friday.
The statement comes after Trump has become increasingly explicit about his
desire to take over Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of the Kingdom of
Denmark — a desire made more real by recent U.S. strikes in Venezuela.
“We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not, because
if we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland, and we’re not going
to have Russia or China as a neighbor,” Trump told reporters during an event at
the White House on Friday.
“I would like to make a deal the easy way, but if we don’t do it the easy way,
we will do it the hard way,” he said.
But the Greenlandic leaders pushed back, repeating their request to be left
alone to manage their own affairs. “We would like to emphasize once again our
desire for the U.S.’s disdain for our country to end,” they said. “The future of
Greenland must be decided by the Greenlandic people.”
They added that they have increased their “international participation” in
recent years. “We must again call for that dialogue to continue to be based on
diplomacy and international principles,” they said in the statement.
Taking over Greenland would be relatively simple, according to officials and
experts, though Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that doing so
would spell the end of NATO.
Eight of Europe’s top leaders backed Greenland earlier this week, saying
security in the Arctic must be achieved “collectively” and with full respect to
the wishes of its people.