BRUSSELS ― EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas privately told lawmakers the state of the world meant it might be a “good moment” to start drinking. Kallas told leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament that while she is not much of a drinker now may be the time to start given events around the globe, according to two people who were in the room. She was speaking around the same time as foreign ministers from Greenland and Denmark were meeting U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Donald Trump’s threats to seize the Arctic island. The EU’s top diplomat ― who coordinates the bloc’s foreign policy on behalf of the 27 governments and the European Commission ― cracked the joke in a meeting of the Conference of Presidents, a meeting of the Parliament’s group leaders. Her comments came after top MEPs started wishing each other a happy new year. The same MEPs added that global events meant it wasn’t that happy, according to people in the room. With fears in Europe that Trump might annex Greenland, mass protests against the Islamist regime in Iran, as well as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the U.S. operation in Venezuela, geopolitics has become the EU’s most pressing issue. One of Kallas’ most recent moves was to tell POLITICO that she was prepared to propose fresh sanctions against Iran following the government crackdown that has reportedly killed hundreds of people. Kallas’ spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

European diplomats were summoned to a closed-door meeting in Tehran with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at which they “forcefully” objected to Iran’s crackdown on anti-regime protests, according to European officials. An EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, said all European ambassadors still active in Tehran had been summoned to the highly unusual meeting with Araghchi. The U.K. was also invited. The meeting started with Araghchi presenting the Islamic regime’s version of the uprising, describing protesters as rabble-rousers and anti-regime forces supported from abroad, the diplomat said. However, the European and British envoys used their speaking time to push back strongly against the minister’s account, voicing outrage over what Britain’s Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called the “brutal repression” of protests. “The ambassadors forcefully expressed their concerns” during the Monday meeting, a spokesperson for France’s foreign ministry said in a statement. The closed-door meeting in Tehran was part of a piecemeal but escalating European response to the crackdown on protests, in which at least 2,571 people have been killed, according to the U.S.-based HRANA rights group. Speaking to journalists in India, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the Islamic regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was “finished,” adding that “we are now witnessing the final days and weeks of this regime.” Several EU countries, including Spain, France, Belgium, Czechia and the Netherlands, have summoned Iranian ambassadors to condemn the violence. Germany and the Netherlands are now pushing to get the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) listed as a terror organization in the EU, according to statements from the German and Dutch foreign ministers. That comes after EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she will soon propose fresh sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The proposal for new sanctions will be put forward at a gathering of European foreign ministers in Brussels on Jan. 29, an EU official said. Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel said Tuesday he had summoned Iran’s ambassador to the Netherlands to “formally protest the excessive violence against peaceful protesters, large-scale arbitrary arrests and internet shutdowns.” The EU’s cautious approach contrasts with that of Trump, who is reportedly reviewing options to act against Tehran, including military strikes. Trump’s moves have been welcomed by Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former shah, who has emerged as a possible successor to Khamenei. “Mr President,” Pahlavi posted Sunday on X. “Your words of solidarity have given Iranians the strength to fight for freedom. Help them liberate themselves and Make Iran Great Again!” In several conversations with POLITICO over the past year, Pahlavi said Iran’s military would either have to cooperate with protesters or stand aside if the current wave of protests is to succeed. Tehran has a history of brutal crackdowns on protests, with the last wave ending in a series of public hangings that brought formal protests from EU governments.

PARIS — France will open its first consulate in Greenland Feb. 6, French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said in a radio interview Wednesday. Barrot said the creation of a French diplomatic outpost in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, is a “political signal” as threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to seize the Denmark-administered territory rattle European capitals. French President Emmanuel Macron previously announced plans to open a consulate in Greenland when he visited Nuuk in June. Macron last week criticized Washington for having designs on Greenland in a major foreign policy speech. A French foreign ministry official said at a Senate hearing in November that the consulate’s opening was a geo-strategic decision aimed at countering “expansionist ambitions expressed by the US president. She said it will cost French taxpayers €500,000 and that Denmark would assist in the process. The United States and Iceland are among the small group of countries who already have consulates in Greenland. Canada is also planning on opening one in the coming weeks. Paul de Villepin contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — European governments are pressuring the EU to appoint a negotiator to represent their interests on Ukraine, fearing the United States will stitch up a deal with Russia behind their backs. Supporters of the plan — including France and Italy — have secured support in the European Commission and among a handful of other countries for the post, according to three diplomats and officials with direct knowledge of the talks who were granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO. They say Europe can only maintain its red lines, such as Ukraine’s potential future membership in NATO, if the EU has a seat at the table. The unprecedented move would mark a major shift in how Europe engages with the string of bilateral talks brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, and comes as the continent works to demonstrate it is ready to play a major role in any settlement to end the four-year war. French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have joined forces in recent weeks to call for the opening of diplomatic channels to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, even as White House peace talks falter. “Macron has been advocating in the last days that, in view of the bilateral discussions between the Americans and the Russians, it is important to play at least a role in the discussion,” a senior French official said. “Meloni very much supported that … they’re not naive about what can be reached through these discussions, but on the balance between not engaging and engaging, there’s a growing appreciation [of the merits of engaging] in some capitals.” Major disagreements remain over the details of the position. Critics say appointing a negotiator would imply that Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith and would accept anything other than Ukraine’s total subjugation. Trump’s efforts to broker a deal have failed so far, with the Kremlin refusing to budge from its demand that Ukraine hand over swaths of territory that Russian troops have been unable to conquer. MESSAGE TO MOSCOW Discussions have been taking place in Brussels about what the bloc would contribute to any talks, and how they could be used to ensure Trump doesn’t sideline its concerns. “There are some issues which cannot be discussed with [only] the U.S. when they have direct implications on our security as Europeans,” the official said. “The message to Washington is as important as [the message] to Moscow.” Kurt Volker, who served as U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations in Trump’s first term and as ambassador to NATO in 2008-2009 under then-President George W. Bush, told POLITICO that Brussels has to be more assertive if it wants to be included in the talks. “It’s been made clear Trump is going to keep up his dialog with Putin both directly and through [U.S. envoy Steve] Witkoff,” he said. “That’s not going away. So you have to have your own communication if it’s going on — it’s not about being in the same room as the Americans and the Russians, it’s about having any kind of communication.” JOB CREATION European leaders first discussed the idea of a special envoy at an EU summit last March, a senior EU official confirmed. Despite getting broad backing, no decision was taken and the proposals were left out of the subsequent joint statement. The role would have been narrowly focused on representing Brussels in talks alongside Kyiv — an altogether different proposition to Meloni’s suggestion of an interlocutor for Moscow. “Countries that were supportive of a Ukraine envoy may not be supportive of an envoy to speak with Russia,” the official said. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, has consistently positioned herself as the only candidate for any role in negotiations over Ukraine’s future. | Filip Singer/EPA Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, has consistently positioned herself as the only candidate for any role in negotiations over Ukraine’s future. The former Estonian prime minister has been a steadfast ally of Kyiv and has used her role to corral capitals into backing stronger sanctions designed to force Russia to end its war of aggression. “If Europe were to name a special envoy, the question is who does that person represent? Who do they report to?” Volker asked. “If it were [Commission President Ursula]von der Leyen, that sidelines Kaja Kallas and the External Action Service [the EU’s diplomatic corps] — most envoys have typically been within the action service, but then that would be at such a low level when they need to talk to Putin directly, it wouldn’t work. “But then I can just imagine the discussions in the Commission if it were to be the Council who had an envoy. That would never fly.” Officials confirmed that key aspects of the job — such as whether it would represent just the EU or the entire “coalition of the willing,” including the U.K. and others — have yet to be worked out. Ditto the diplomatic rank, and whether to formally appoint a bureaucrat or informally delegate the role to a current national leader. Italian government minister Giovanbattista Fazzolari — an influential ally of Meloni whose Ukrainian wife is credited with building support for Kyiv within Rome’s governing coalition — said over the weekend that former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi should be offered the special envoy job. Another four diplomats, meanwhile, noted that Finnish President Alexander Stubb has often been considered a potential representative for Europe in any talks with Washington and Moscow. The center-right veteran diplomat has struck up friendly relations with Trump while playing golf, while his country shares a border with Russia and has been on the receiving end of hybrid campaigns from the Kremlin. According to one of them, relying on “a sitting leader” means they could be “a bit more free in what they say.” However, “another question is figuring out what is the moment to speak with Putin. Is there a risk that if you do so, you’re also in a way legitimizing his positions?” Two EU officials underlined to POLITICO that no special envoy role exists and that any talk of candidates was premature. That said, a third noted, “none of these jobs exist until they do.” Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting. 

BRUSSELS — EU leaders are scrambling to come up with a deal on Greenland’s future that would allow Donald Trump to claim victory on the issue without destroying the alliance that underpins European security.  From proposals to using NATO to bolster Arctic security to giving the U.S. concessions on mineral extraction, the bloc’s leaders are leaning heavily toward conciliation over confrontation with Trump, three diplomats and an EU official told POLITICO. The race to come up with a plan follows the U.S. president’s renewed claims that his country “needs” the island territory — and won’t rule out getting it by force. “In the end, we have always come to a common conclusion” with Washington, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, adding that their talks on the Arctic territory were “encouraging.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he hopes “a mutually acceptable solution” will be found within NATO. The foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark will meet U.S. Vice President JD Vance alongside Rubio at the White House on Wednesday. They are hoping for “an honest conversation with the administration,” according to another EU diplomat familiar with plans for the meeting. THE ART OF THE DEAL Asked to describe a possible endgame on Greenland, the first EU diplomat said it could be a deal that would give Trump a victory he could sell domestically, such as forcing European countries to invest more in Arctic security as well as a promise that the U.S. could profit from Greenland’s mineral wealth. Trump is primarily looking for a win on Greenland, the diplomat said. “If you can smartly repackage Arctic security, blend in critical minerals, put a big bow on top, there’s a chance” of getting Trump to sign on. “Past experience” — for example when EU allies pledged to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense — showed “this is always how things have gone.” On defense, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte laid the groundwork for a deal when on Monday he said countries in the alliance were discussing ways of bolstering Arctic security. While the shape of the “next steps” touted by Rutte remain to be defined, a ramped-up investment by European NATO members is one possibility that could fit with Trump’s desire to see Europe shoulder greater responsibility for its security. On mineral extraction, details are blurrier. But a deal that guarantees the U.S. a share of profits from extraction of critical raw materials is one possibility, said the EU official. For now, capacity to extract critical raw materials from Greenland is limited. Denmark has spent years seeking investment for long-term projects, with little luck as countries have preferred obtaining minerals at a much cheaper rate on global markets. The EU is planning to more than double its investment in Greenland in its next-long term budget — including funds oriented toward critical raw materials projects. This could be a hook for Trump to accept a co-investment deal. Yet, if Trump’s real aim is the island’s minerals, Danes have been offering the U.S the chance to invest in Greenland for years — an offer refused by American officials, several diplomats said. If Trump’s push on Greenland is about China and Russia, he could easily ask Copenhagen to increase the presence of U.S troops on the island, they also say. A third EU diplomat questioned whether Trump’s real aim was to get into the history books. Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan “has become a geographical concept; he wants to go down in history as the man who has made America ‘greater’ — in geographical terms,” they said. PRESERVING NATO Above all, governments are trying to avoid a military clash, the three diplomats and EU official said. A direct intervention by the U.S. on Greenland — a territory belonging to a member of the EU and NATO — would effectively spell the end of the postwar security order, leaders have warned.  “It would be an unprecedented situation in the history of NATO and any defense alliance,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Tuesday, adding that Berlin is talking with Copenhagen about the options at Europe’s disposal if the U.S. launches a takeover. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius and Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen both said a military intervention would be the end of NATO. “Everything would stop,” Fredriksen said. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte laid the groundwork for a deal when on Monday he said countries in the alliance were discussing ways of bolstering Arctic security. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images “No provision [in the alliance’s 1949 founding treaty] envisions an attack on one NATO ally by another one,” said a NATO diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. It would mean “the end of the alliance,” they added. Trump said “it may be a choice” for the U.S. between pursuing his ambition to take control of Greenland and keeping the alliance intact. Preserving NATO remains the bloc’s top priority, the first EU diplomat said. While both privately and publicly officials have forcefully rejected the idea Europe might “give up” Greenland to the U.S., the comments underscore how desperate governments are to avoid a direct clash with Washington. “This is serious – and Europe is scared,” said a fourth EU diplomat involved in discussions in Brussels on how the bloc responds. A fifth described the moment as “seismic,” because it signaled that the U.S. was ready to rip up a hundred years of ironclad relations.  STILL REELING While European leaders are largely on the same page that a military conflict is unconscionable, how to reach a negotiated settlement is proving thornier. Until the U.S. military strike on Venezuela on Jan. 3, and Trump’s fresh claims the U.S. needs to “have” Greenland, the Europeans were very conspicuously not working on a plan to protect Greenland from Trump — because to do so might risk making the threat real. “It’s been something we’ve anticipated as a potential risk, but something that we can do very little about,” said Thomas Crosbie, a U.S. military expert at the Royal Danish Defense College, which provides training and education for the Danish defense force. “The idea has been that the more we focus on this, and the more we create preparations around resisting this, the more we make it likely to happen. So there’s been anxiety that [by planning for a U.S. invasion] we may accidentally encourage more interest in this, and, you know, kind of escalate,” Crosbie said. But the problem was that, having spent six years studiously avoiding making a plan to respond to Trump’s threats, Europe was left scrabbling for one. Europeans are now faced with figuring out what they have in their “toolbox” to respond to Washington, a former Danish MP aware of discussions said. “The normal rulebook doesn’t work anymore.” Officials consider it the biggest challenge to Europe since the Second World War and they’re not sure what to do.  “We know how we would react if Russia started to behave this way,” the fourth diplomat said. But with the U.S, “this is simply not something we are used to.” Victor Jack, Nette Nöstlinger, Chris Lunday, Zoya Sheftalovich and Seb Starcevic contributed reporting.

The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland will make their case against Donald Trump’s threats over the Arctic island when they meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday, according to an EU diplomat familiar with the plans. While the talks have been mooted for some days, there was no confirmation of the details. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt will hold the discussions at the White House. The talks come after Trump ramped up his rhetoric on Greenland in a series of saber-rattling statements in recent days following his administration’s bombing raid on the Venezuelan capital and capture of leader Nicolás Maduro. In a sign of the increasing diplomatic activity, Motzfeldt and Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen will travel to Brussels on Monday for a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Both Copenhagen and Greenland, a self-ruling Danish territory, have rejected Trump’s designs on the island, which he has repeatedly stated is vital to American security interests. “I’d love to make a deal with them. It’s easier. But one way or the other, we’re going to have Greenland,” Trump said aboard Air Force One on Sunday. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that a U.S. invasion would lead to the end of NATO. European leaders have also pledged their support for Greenland’s right to self-determination, amid fears U.S. operation in Venezuela on Jan. 3 could embolden Trump to go after Greenland next.

KYIV — Russia’s relentless assault killed at least 2,500 civilians and injured 12,000 in Ukraine last year, according to a new report published this week. Those figures made it the deadliest year for Ukraine’s civilian population since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission said. The U.N. monitors included only deaths and injuries they were able to verify, noting the total dead and injured toll in 2025 was still 31 percent higher than in 2024, and 70 percent higher than in 2023. The vast majority of casualties, around 97 percent, occurred in Ukraine-controlled territory due to attacks launched by Russian armed forces. Russia’s army increased its efforts to capture Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions in 2025, with the campaign resulting in the killing and injuring of civilians, destruction of infrastructure and new waves of displacement. The aggression continues as Russian leader Vladimir Putin brushes off U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war. More than 9,000 people were injured in 2025 in frontline areas, with the elderly most affected. Civilian casualties by short-range drones increased by 120 percent last year, with 577 people killed and more than 3000 injured by FPV drone attacks, compared to 226 killed and 1,528 injured in 2024.  Russian Ambassador to the U.N. Vasilii Nebendzia denied that Russia ever targets civilians, blaming Ukrainian air defense for the death toll during the U.N. Security Council meeting on Monday.   Russia attacked Ukraine with more than 20 different missiles and 293 killer drones on Monday night, killing four and injuring six people in Kharkiv alone, said local governor Oleh Synehubov.  The Kremlin has bombarded Ukraine’s energy system during freezing temperatures, leaving hundreds of thousands of families without heating and electricity. “Every such strike against life is a reminder that support for Ukraine cannot be stopped. Missiles for air defense systems are needed every day, and especially during winter,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday. “The world can respond to this Russian terror with new assistance packages for Ukraine. We expect the acceleration of deliveries already agreed with America and Europe. Russia must come to learn that cold will not help it win the war,” Zelenskyy added.

LONDON — Reza Pahlavi was in the United States as a student in 1979 when his father, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in a revolution. He has not set foot inside Iran since, though his monarchist supporters have never stopped believing that one day their “crown prince” will return.  As anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people, despite an internet blackout and an increasingly brutal crackdown, that day may just be nearing.   Pahlavi’s name is on the lips of many protesters, who chant that they want the “shah” back. Even his critics — and there are plenty who oppose a return of the monarchy — now concede that Pahlavi may prove to be the only figure with the profile required to oversee a transition.  The global implications of the end of the Islamic Republic and its replacement with a pro-Western democratic government would be profound, touching everything from the Gaza crisis to the wars in Ukraine and Yemen, to the oil market.  Over the course of three interviews in the past 12 months in London, Paris and online, Pahlavi told POLITICO how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be overthrown. He set out the steps needed to end half a century of religious dictatorship and outlined his own proposal to lead a transition to secular democracy. Nothing is guaranteed, and even Pahlavi’s team cannot be sure that this current wave of protests will take down the regime, never mind bring him to power. But if it does, the following is an account of Pahlavi’s roadmap for revolution and his blueprint for a democratic future.  POPULAR UPRISING  Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran, and in his interview with POLITICO last February he made it clear he wanted foreign powers to focus on supporting Iranians to move against their rulers rather than intervening militarily from the outside.  “People are already on the streets with no help. The economic situation is to a point where our currency devaluation, salaries can’t be paid, people can’t even afford a kilo of potatoes, never mind meat,” he said. “We need more and more sustained protests.” Over the past two weeks, the spiraling cost of living and economic mismanagement have indeed helped fuel the protest wave. The biggest rallies in years have filled the streets, despite attempts by the authorities to intimidate opponents through violence and by cutting off communications. Pahlavi has sought to encourage foreign financial support for workers who will disrupt the state by going on strike. He also called for more Starlink internet terminals to be shipped into Iran, in defiance of a ban, to make it harder for the regime to stop dissidents from communicating and coordinating their opposition. Amid the latest internet shutdowns, Starlink has provided the opposition movements with a vital lifeline. As the protests gathered pace last week, Pahlavi stepped up his own stream of social media posts and videos, which gain many millions of views, encouraging people onto the streets. He started by calling for demonstrations to begin at 8 p.m. local time, then urged protesters to start earlier and occupy city centers for longer. His supporters say these appeals are helping steer the protest movement. Reza Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran. | Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA The security forces have brutally crushed many of these gatherings. The Norway-based Iranian Human Rights group puts the number of dead at 648, while estimating that more than 10,000 people have been arrested. It’s almost impossible to know how widely Pahlavi’s message is permeating nationwide, but footage inside Iran suggests the exiled prince’s words are gaining some traction with demonstrators, with increasing images of the pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag appearing at protests, and crowds chanting “javid shah” — the eternal shah. DEFECTORS Understandably, given his family history, Pahlavi has made a study of revolutions and draws on the collapse of the Soviet Union to understand how the Islamic Republic can be overthrown. In Romania and Czechoslovakia, he said, what was required to end Communism was ultimately “maximum defections” among people inside the ruling elites, military and security services who did not want to “go down with the sinking ship.”  “I don’t think there will ever be a successful civil disobedience movement without the tacit collaboration or non-intervention of the military,” he said during an interview last February.  There are multiple layers to Iran’s machinery of repression, including the hated Basij militia, but the most powerful and feared part of its security apparatus is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pahlavi argued that top IRGC commanders who are “lining their pockets” — and would remain loyal to Khamenei — did not represent the bulk of the organization’s operatives, many of whom “can’t pay rent and have to take a second job at the end of their shift.”  “They’re ultimately at some point contemplating their children are in the streets protesting … and resisting the regime. And it’s their children they’re called on to shoot. How long is that tenable?” Pahlavi’s offer to those defecting is that they will be granted an amnesty once the regime has fallen. He argues that most of the people currently working in the government and military will need to remain in their roles to provide stability once Khamenei has been thrown out, in order to avoid hollowing out the administration and creating a vacuum — as happened after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.  Only the hardline officials at the top of the regime in Tehran should expect to face punishment.  In June, Pahlavi announced he and his team were setting up a secure portal for defectors to register their support for overthrowing the regime, offering an amnesty to those who sign up and help support a popular uprising. By July, he told POLITICO, 50,000 apparent regime defectors had used the system.  His team are now wary of making claims regarding the total number of defectors, beyond saying “tens of thousands” have registered. These have to be verified, and any regime trolls or spies rooted out. But Pahlavi’s allies say a large number of new defectors made contact via the portal as the protests gathered pace in recent days.  REGIME CHANGE In his conversations with POLITICO last year, Pahlavi insisted he didn’t want the United States or Israel to get involved directly and drive out the supreme leader and his lieutenants. He always said the regime would be destroyed by a combination of fracturing from within and pressure from popular unrest.  He’s also been critical of the reluctance of European governments to challenge the regime and of their preference to continue diplomatic efforts, which he has described as appeasement. European powers, especially France, Germany and the U.K., have historically had a significant role in managing the West’s relations with Iran, notably in designing the 2015 nuclear deal that sought to limit Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.  But Pahlavi’s allies want more support and vocal condemnation from Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. He ordered American military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, as part of Israel’s 12-day war, action that many analysts and Pahlavi’s team agree leaves the clerical elite and its vast security apparatus weaker than ever.  U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. | Pool photo by Bonnie Cash via EPA Pahlavi remains in close contact with members of the Trump administration, as well as other governments including in Germany, France and the U.K. He has met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio several times and said he regards him as “the most astute and understanding” holder of that office when it comes to Iran since the 1979 revolution.  In recent days Trump has escalated his threats to intervene, including potentially through more military action if Iran’s rulers continue their crackdown and kill large numbers of protesters.  On the weekend Pahlavi urged Trump to follow through. “Mr President,” he posted on X Sunday. “Your words of solidarity have given Iranians the strength to fight for freedom,” he said. “Help them liberate themselves and Make Iran Great Again!” THE CARETAKER KING  In June Pahlavi announced he was ready to replace Khamenei’s administration to lead the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.   “Once the regime collapses, we have to have a transitional government as quickly as possible,” he told POLITICO last year. He proposed that a constitutional conference should be held among Iranian representatives to devise a new settlement, to be ratified by the people in a referendum.  The day after that referendum is held, he told POLITICO in February, “that’s the end of my mission in life.”  Asked if he wanted to see a monarchy restored, he said in June: “Democratic options should be on the table. I’m not going to be the one to decide that. My role however is to make sure that no voice is left behind. That all opinions should have the chance to argue their case — it doesn’t matter if they are republicans or monarchists, it doesn’t matter if they’re on the left of center or the right.”  One option he hasn’t apparently excluded might be to restore a permanent monarchy, with a democratically elected government serving in his name.  Pahlavi says he has three clear principles for establishing a new democracy: protecting Iran’s territorial integrity; a secular democratic system that separates religion from the government; and “every principle of human rights incorporated into our laws.” He confirmed to POLITICO that this would include equality and protection against discrimination for all citizens, regardless of their sexual or religious orientation.  COME-BACK CAPITALISM  Over the past year, Pahlavi has been touring Western capitals meeting politicians as well as senior business figures and investors from the world of banking and finance. Iran is a major OPEC oil producer and has the second biggest reserves of natural gas in the world, “which could supply Europe for a long time to come,” he said.  “Iran is the most untapped reserve for foreign investment,” Pahlavi said in February. “If Silicon Valley was to commit for a $100 billion investment, you could imagine what sort of impact that could have. The sky is the limit.”  What he wants to bring about, he says, is a “democratic culture” — even more than any specific laws that stipulate forms of democratic government. He pointed to Iran’s past under the Pahlavi monarchy, saying his grandfather remains a respected figure as a modernizer.  “If it becomes an issue of the family, my grandfather today is the most revered political figure in the architect of modern Iran,” he said in February. “Every chant of the streets of ‘god bless his soul.’ These are the actual slogans people chant on the street as they enter or exit a soccer stadium. Why? Because the intent was patriotic, helping Iran come out of the dark ages. There was no aspect of secular modern institutions from a postal system to a modern army to education which was in the hands of the clerics.”   Pahlavi’s father, the shah, brought in an era of industrialization and economic improvement alongside greater freedom for women, he said. “This is where the Gen Z of Iran is,” he said. “Regardless of whether I play a direct role or not, Iranians are coming out of the tunnel.”  Conversely, many Iranians still associate his father’s regime with out-of-touch elites and the notorious Savak secret police, whose brutality helped fuel the 1979 revolution. NOT SO FAST  Nobody can be sure what happens next in Iran. It may still come down to Trump and perhaps Israel.  Anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people. | Neil Hall/EPA Plenty of experts don’t believe the regime is finished, though it is clearly weakened. Even if the protests do result in change, many say it seems more likely that the regime will use a mixture of fear tactics and adaptation to protect itself rather than collapse or be toppled completely.  While reports suggest young people have led the protests and appear to have grown in confidence, recent days have seen a more ferocious regime response, with accounts of hospitals being overwhelmed with shooting victims. The demonstrations could still be snuffed out by a regime with a capacity for violence.  The Iranian opposition remains hugely fragmented, with many leading activists in prison. The substantial diaspora has struggled to find a unity of voice, though Pahlavi tried last year to bring more people on board with his own movement.  Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iran should do better than reviving a “failed” monarchy. She added she was unsure how wide Pahlavi’s support really was inside the country. Independent, reliable polling is hard to find and memories of the darker side of the shah’s era run deep. But the exiled prince’s advantage now may be that there is no better option to oversee the collapse of the clerics and map out what comes next. “Pahlavi has name recognition and there is no other clear individual to turn to,” Vakil said. “People are willing to listen to his comments calling on them to go out in the streets.”

European Union Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said the bloc should consider establishing a standing military force of 100,000 troops and overhaul the political processes governing defense. Faced with Russian aggression and the U.S. shifting its focus away from Europe and threatening Greenland, Kubilius argued for a “big bang” approach to re-imagining Europe’s common defense. “Would the United States be militarily stronger if they would have 50 armies on the States level instead of a single federal army,” he said at a Swedish security conference on Sunday. “Fifty state defence policies and defense budgets on the states level, instead of a single federal defense policy and budget?” “If our answer is ‘no,’ [the] USA would not be stronger, then — what are we waiting for?” Kubilius said Europe’s defense readiness depends on three pillars: more investment in production capacity; institutions that are prepared and organization; and the political will to deter and, if needed, fight. Merely increasing funding for Europe’s existing defense setup won’t meet these requirements, he said, in part because of a lack of unity. Andrius Kubilius said Europe’s defense readiness depends on more investment in production, institutions that are prepared and the political will to deter and, if needed, fight. | Antonio Pedro Santos/EPA “We need to start to invest our money in such a way, that we would be able to fight as Europe, not just as collection of 27 national ‘bonsai armies’,” he said, borrowing a phrase from former EU High Representative Josep Borrell. Europe could instead create — “as Jean-Claude Juncker, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel already proposed 10 years ago” a powerful, standing “European military force” of 100,000 troops, he said. To help solve the issue of political will, Kubilius wants to establish a European Security Council. The idea has been talked up by French President Macron and former German Chancellor Merkel. “The European Security Council could be composed of key permanent members, along with several rotational members, including the member state with the Council presidency,” said Kubilius. “Plus the leadership of the EU: Commission and Council presidents.” The proposed security council should also include the United Kingdom, Kubilius said. “In total around 10-12 members, with the task to discuss the most important issues in defense, some of which I just mentioned before,” Kubilius said. “And not only discussing, but also swiftly preparing important decisions.”

Nordic governments are rejecting U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertions that Russian and Chinese vessels are operating near Greenland, warning that the claims are not supported by intelligence and are fueling destabilizing rhetoric, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. Two senior Nordic diplomats with access to NATO intelligence briefings told the FT there is no evidence of Russian or Chinese ships or submarines operating around Greenland in recent years, directly contradicting Trump’s justification for U.S. control of the Arctic territory. “I have seen the intelligence. There are no ships, no submarines,” one diplomat told the paper. Trump has claimed that Greenland is “covered with Russian and Chinese ships” and argued that the U.S. must take control of the island for national security reasons — rhetoric that has intensified in recent weeks. Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide also told Norwegian broadcaster NRK that there was “very little” Russian or Chinese activity near Greenland, despite ongoing Russian submarine movements closer to Norway itself. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, meanwhile, said at an annual security conference in northern Sweden that Stockholm was “highly critical” of what the Trump administration was doing and had done in Venezuela, in regards to international law. “We are probably even more critical of the rhetoric that is being expressed against Greenland and Denmark,” Kristersson added, explaining that the rules-based international order is under greater strain than it has been in decades. Kristersson said the U.S. should recognize Denmark’s long-standing role as a loyal ally, instead of agitating about Greenland. “On the contrary, the United States should thank Denmark,” he said. Leaders of all five parties in Greenland’s parliament reiterated that stance late Friday, saying in a joint statement: “We do not want to be Americans, we do not want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders.”