DUBLIN — The Irish capital, which doubles as Europe’s de facto tech capital,
hosted two very different AI summits in the past week.
Most eyes were on the International AI Summit, the signature tech event of
Ireland’s six-month presidency of the Council of the EU, where top brass from
the world’s biggest tech firms discussed ways to harness artificial intelligence
and minimize safety risks.
But the weekend before, a very different conversation was taking place at the
Workers’ AI Counter Summit, as Ireland’s tech workers demanded a say in how the
burgeoning technology reshapes the workplace and society.
Ireland’s lucrative tech sector has been rattled by waves of AI-driven layoffs —
and the country’s fledgling tech union has seen an exponential spike in sign-ups
from workers who are worried about their future.
There’s an “awakening” happening right now among workers in Ireland’s tech
sector, and a growing “awareness that they’re not bulletproof,” said Sinéad
Gibney, a social democrat lawmaker who previously worked for Google.
“I do think what we will see is that parts of roles will be automated, which
means that people will be competing more heavily for the same roles,” she said.
“They won’t have the same labor power and therefore we’re going to see a drop in
quality of work, we’re going to see more zero-hour contracts, in more places
than we already see it.”
The labor movement brewing in Ireland, where many of the world’s tech giants
have their EU bases, is part of a wider trend among tech workers globally, who
have seen their work disrupted by rapidly evolving AI.
RISE IN LAYOFFS
Ireland’s dedicated union for tech workers, the Digital and Techworker Alliance
(DATA), has seen a five-fold increase in membership since it was first founded
in 2023.
In its first year and a half of existence, membership hovered around 270 people.
In the past year-and-a-half, it’s jumped to more than 1,350 members, DATA
organizer John Bohan told POLITICO. He added that this number tends to spike
around layoffs and other actions.
“The tech industry was founded on the idea that it would never have a union,
because they’re making people rich, and treat them really well,” Bohan said.
“But post-Covid, workforce adjustments happened again and again, with layoffs
and declining conditions in the sector. We started to see more people wanting to
get organized around redundancies.”
The spike in sign-ups coincides with a wave of layoffs in Ireland’s tech bubble
(and the tech sector globally), as companies corrected pandemic-era overhiring,
and diverted investment to AI.
Ireland hosts the EU headquarters of most of the world’s largest tech companies,
and more than 170,000 people are employed in the tech sector, according to the
country’s statistics institute.
Social media giant Meta has roughly halved its workforce in Ireland since the
pandemic, axing well over 1,000 roles to offset AI investment and boost
efficiency. Separately, Meta subcontractor Covalen also announced massive
layoffs earlier this year, cutting more than 700 people.
Video-sharing platform TikTok announced this year it would shed around 300 Irish
jobs, mostly from its trust and safety team, shifting the work to other
countries, outsourced vendors or automated AI solutions.
A report by the IMF earlier this year warned that Ireland’s labor market is
“relatively more exposed” to AI than many advanced economies, partly due to its
concentration of tech workers.
The AI race is also creating new jobs on the Irish market – as AI firms like
Anthropic and OpenAI are setting up Irish bases and trying to lure Big Tech
workers with even bigger salaries.
Amid the uncertainty and volatility of the AI boom, tech workers are turning to
unions for the first time as a safety net. One tech worker who used to work in
trust and safety at a big tech firm told POLITICO that there used to be a
feeling that as a “pampered” tech worker you “can’t ask for your rights, because
you already have it so much better.”
But as layoffs continue and teams get leaner, workers in fields like trust and
safety “now have to deal with these issues with fewer and fewer resources”, and
face a “constant threat of being chopped,” the worker said.
That’s causing an “undoing of a certain perspective that we have of ourselves as
tech sector workers,” they said, “because of undeniable experiences that now put
us in situations where we clearly see our rights being violated, even if we may
have it so much or somewhat better than most people.”
A different tech worker who currently works for Covalen told POLITICO that there
is a sense that “if they believe they can replace you with AI, they will do
that.”
“All these Big Tech firms only care about profit, and what I have realized is
the Irish government protects that Big Tech capital [rather than workers],” the
Covalen worker said. “But the question is, what’s the government going to do
when the tech bros change their mind and move elsewhere?”
WORKERS AT THE CENTER
The speaker list at this week’s AI summit was a flex of the country’s strength
as a tech hub, as top names from the world’s biggest companies like Google and
Microsoft took to the stage.
Fionnuala Ní Bhrógáin, head of organizing and campaigning at Ireland’s
Communications Workers’ Union (DATA’s parent union), was the only union voice on
the line-up.
“The fact that 36 executives and industry bosses featured on the program,
compared with just one trade union speaker — invited at the last minute after
attention was drawn to the absence of workers’ voices — says a lot about the
value the Irish government places on AI’s impact on workers,” she told POLITICO.
“The reality is that a meaningful conversation about AI’s future can only happen
through genuine engagement with workers and collective bargaining,” Ní Bhrógáin
added. “Without that voice, we risk deepening mistrust and resistance rather
than creating the conditions for workers to shape these changes collectively.”
DATA organized its counter-AI summit the previous weekend, to put “workers at
the center of the debate about power, AI, technology and the future of work.”
The event cut through the “hype and futurism of politicians and industry figures
to focus on the real present harms faced by ordinary workers and communities,”
DATA’s Bohan said.
The union is pushing for stronger legal protections for tech workers caught up
in AI-driven layoffs in Ireland, including making it mandatory for employers to
recognize unions during collective bargaining. It is also calling for a ban on
cooling-off clauses that prevent laid-off workers from moving between Big Tech
subcontractors.
A spokesperson for Ireland’s department for enterprise told POLITICO in a
written statement that the government is “committed to strengthening collective
bargaining and industrial relations” and has published an action plan to do so
between now and 2030.
They said that employers already have to comply with obligations under Irish
employment law, including consultation and notification procedures for
collective redundancies, and workers who feel those rules have been broken can
complain to the Workplace Relations Commission.
Firefighting to future-proofing
Naoise Ó Cearúil, a center-right Fianna Fáil lawmaker who chairs the AI
committee, pointed out that while there have been high-profile job cuts in
Ireland’s tech sector, “the actual net is that there has been an increase [in
jobs], particularly over the past year and even five years.”
According to Ireland’s central statistics office, total employment in tech and
related sectors surpassed 177,000 in the second quarter of this year, up from
around 144,000 at the same time in 2021.
Ó Cearúil pointed out that many job losses were in trust and safety jobs like
content moderation that are “very difficult mentally,” and now tech firms are
able to “utilize AI and software to be able to do a lot of detection, rather
than using humans.”
He has called for a national program to be established, to support workers whose
jobs are at risk due to AI and automation.
A spokesperson for Ireland’s department of enterprise acknowledged that the
country’s tech sector has “experienced significant adjustment in recent years,”
but said the changes were generally part of wider global restructuring “rather
than reflecting any Ireland-specific weakness.”
They said the Irish government is currently focused on “ensuring workers and
businesses are equipped to adapt to technological change through investment in
education, training, lifelong learning and digital skills.”
Tag - Markets
BRUSSELS — France and Germany said Friday they had struck a deal to favor
European-made cars under a landmark EU industry bill in exchange for weakening a
2035 vehicle emissions target, ending months of wrangling between the bloc’s two
biggest economies.
Under the agreement, Germany would accept stricter “Made in Europe” — or local
content — requirements for the automotive industry in the proposed Industrial
Accelerator Act, a longstanding French demand, while France would back Berlin’s
push to relax the EU’s plan to phase out new combustion-engine cars.
The EU’s current target is for companies to reduce emissions from new vehicles
by 100% from 2021 levels by 2035, with the possibility to “earn” 10% of
emissions leeway through initiatives like offsets and investments.
France and Germany now want to soften the 2035 target to 90% but without having
to offer investments in alternative fuels to compensate the remaining 10%, as
proposed by the European Commission.
“This balanced approach will enable the European Union to pursue its climate
objectives while strengthening the technological sovereignty, industrial base
and international competitiveness of its automotive industry,” the two countries
said in a joint statement.
The agreement, first reported by POLITICO in July, was due to have been
announced Thursday, during a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels. But it was held
up at the last minute by disagreements within Germany’s governing coalition.
“We hope that this Franco-German dynamic can swiftly lead to an agreement with
our partners, for our jobs and our industry,” French President Emmanuel Macron
said in a post on social media.
An Elysée official on Friday made clear that, under the Franco-German deal, the
scope of Made in Europe for automotive can be extended to the U.K. and
Switzerland under certain conditions. — addressing a key concern of Prime
Minister Andy Burnham’s government ahead of a Nov. 20 U.K.-EU summit in
Brussels.
The agreement was reached after the German Social Democratic Party, the junior
partner in Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition government, dropped its
opposition.
“This is a modern realignment of German industrial policy that places
significantly greater emphasis on preserving jobs and production sites,” said
German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider, who is from the SPD.
“The clear expectation for German companies is that they will use these new
opportunities to make investments and guarantee jobs here in Germany,” he added.
CORRECTION: This article was updated on Oct. 16 after an earlier version
misrepresented the figures in the Franco-German proposal on the softening of
2035 targets.
LONDON — Britain has signed a new critical minerals partnership with the Trump
administration, as it seeks to diversify supply chains away from China.
Foreign Minister Seema Malhotra signed the partnership in Washington with U.S.
Under Secretary of State Jacob Helberg on Wednesday night.
“As demand for critical minerals around the world continues to rise, this
Memorandum of Understanding with the United States underscores our commitment to
working as close allies to build resilient, diversified global supply chains,”
Malhotra said in a statement.
Under the terms of the deal, the two countries have agreed to use economic
policy tools and coordinated investment to secure supplies of critical minerals
and crack down on subsidized imports that risk undercutting domestic production.
They will jointly identify priority projects, mobilize financing for
developments, and share intelligence on investments that could threaten domestic
capabilities in either country.
The partnership signals a tougher stance on market distortion, with both sides
pledging to protect their industries from “non-market policies and unfair trade
practices” — including by working with allies on a global approach to pricing
challenges.
The agreement also states both sides will use existing legislative and
diplomatic tools to review, deter and potentially block critical minerals and
rare earths asset sales on national security grounds.
U.S. and U.K. ministers are expected to convene within the next six months to
take the partnership forward.
The Trump administration, which has announced similar agreements with Mexico,
the European Union and Japan, ultimately wants to establish a critical minerals
trading bloc, first floated on Wednesday by Vice President JD Vance to 54
countries.
Speaking to reporters in London on Thursday, U.K. Trade Secretary Peter Kyle
said the trading bloc with Washington “makes perfect sense.”
“On critical minerals, the alliances make perfect sense, as long as they take
into account the specific peculiarities of domestic markets,” Kyle said.
“In all of the alliances, all of us have different needs, and all of us are
producing different minerals, so we have to make sure that it’s completely
cooperative, but we should be approaching it with a ‘how do you make it work?’ —
rather than how to avoid it,” he added.
The German competition authority hit Amazon with a €59 million fine on Thursday
after finding the e-commerce giant’s pricing rules for third-party vendors to be
in breach of national and EU competition rules.
The authority determined that Amazon’s practices, and in particular its use of
algorithms to influence pricing by sellers and the enforcement of its Fair
Pricing Policy, are in breach of Germany’s digital dominance rules as well as EU
competition law.
“Amazon competes directly with marketplace sellers on its platform and
influences the prices of its competitors, including through price caps, which is
problematic from a competition standpoint,” Andreas Mundt, president of the
Federal Cartel Office, or Bundeskartellamt, said in a statement.
The agency takes issue with Amazon’s pricing restrictions, and in particular its
pricing cap, on what third-party sellers can charge without being penalized
under the platform’s rules.
“We will vigorously challenge the FCO’s conclusion, which is based on unique
German regulation and directly conflicts with EU competition law consumer
standards,” said Rocco Bräuniger, Amazon’s country manager for Germany, in a
statement.
Per Bräuniger, the agency is forcing Amazon to promote uncompetitive prices to
customers.
The decision follows a preliminary assessment sent to Amazon in June 2025, after
which the company submitted comments.
The Bundeskartellamt had designated Amazon as a company of paramount
significance for competition across markets in July 2022, a finding upheld by
the Federal Court of Justice in April 2024.
BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU
envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia,
the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday.
“The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face
of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a
statement.
Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would
have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its
negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia.
EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the
conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money
on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s
seven-year budget.
A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend
the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal
budgetary needs and the rest for defense.
France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU
defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion
annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan.
However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give
Ukraine as much flexibility as possible.
The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from
third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent
product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also
strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations.
The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and
missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike
capabilities.
If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed
security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in
procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help
cover interest payments on the loan.
The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the
legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images
The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed
in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional
to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme.
Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion
SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the
Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by
Kyiv.
NEXT STEPS
Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine
the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure.
If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches.
The remaining cash will arrive in 2027.
Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and
pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the
Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc.
While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover
Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8
billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund.
By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its
military and budgetary needs this year and next.
Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that
aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that
to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at
this point.
Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.
LONDON — Victory is finally in sight for the Bank of England. But rate cuts
aren’t.
It’s taken Britain’s central bank longer to bring inflation under control than
any of its peers on the global stage, but on Thursday economists expect
forecasts to show that inflation in the U.K. will return to the government’s 2
percent target within the next two years, having overshot it for almost all of
the last four.
The pound surged to its highest level against the dollar in five years last
month, as global confidence in the anchor of the world’s financial system
appeared to fray due to the news flow out of the U.S.
But there will be little else to set the pulse racing: Financial market
participants are almost unanimous in expecting no change in the Bank rate from
its current 3.75 percent.
Even the extraordinary events of January, which saw the U.S. seize Venezuelan
leader Nicolas Maduro and U.S. President Donald Trump threaten military force
against his NATO allies over Greenland, seem unlikely to induce a shift in the
Bank’s communication about the U.K.’s economic outlook.
Extrapolating how these seismic events will translate into the U.K. economy has
been hard. One of the more hawkish members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy
Committee, Megan Greene, argued in a speech last month that while a stronger
pound should help keep the cost of imports down, it could easily be offset by
other factors, especially if the U.S. Federal Reserve were to be pressured by
the White House into cutting U.S. interest rates more aggressively.
Greene argued the MPC should focus on what is in its power to control. Here, the
Bank is facing a familiar conundrum: growth is sluggish and unemployment is
trending higher, but inflation is coming down — even if painfully slowly — and
most business surveys suggest wage growth will continue to outstrip what is
justified by productivity.
Headline inflation ticked up again in December to 3.4 percent, still far above
the 2 percent target. The latest data suggest that the economy is still more or
less ticking along, growing at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the three months
through November.
STILL ‘GRADUAL AND CAUTIOUS’
The narrow vote by the MPC to cut the Bank rate to 3.75 percent from 4 percent
at its last meeting in December — and the unwavering message from the Bank that
it will take a “gradual and cautious” approach to easing policy — means the
committee will stay put on Thursday, according to Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay
Raja.
UBS economist Anna Titareva, meanwhile, reckons the vote will be split, with
both Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden capable of voting
again for a cut alongside Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra, the two external
members most concerned about the risks of a slowdown and an accompanying rise in
joblessness. But that scenario would still leave Bailey in the minority against
the remaining five of nine members in the committee.
Most analysts still expect the Bank to cut interest rates twice this year.
Inflation is set to fall from April as Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to
strip green levies off energy bills causes a drop in final prices for
electricity.
Deutsche’s Raja expects cuts in March and again in June, but says rates are
unlikely to fall any further after that.
BRUSSELS — The EU and U.K. must overcome historic gripes and “reset” their
relationship to be able to work together in an increasingly uncertain world, the
bloc’s top parliamentarian said.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola used an address to the Spanish
senate on Tuesday to call for closer ties with the U.K. as London steps up
efforts to secure smoother access to European markets and funding projects,
after the country voted to leave the bloc in 2016.
“Ten years on from Brexit … and in a world that has changed so profoundly,
Europe and the U.K. need a new way of working together on trade, customs,
research, mobility and on security and defense,” Metsola said. “Today it is time
to exorcize the ghosts of the past.”
Metsola called for a “reset” in the partnership between Britain and the EU as
part of a policy of “realistic pragmatism anchored in values that will see all
of us move forward together.”
Her speech comes after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he intended to
try and ensure his country’s defense industries can benefit from the EU’s
flagship SAFE scheme — a €150 billion funding program designed to boost
procurement of military hardware.
That push has been far from smooth, with a meeting of EU governments on Monday
night failing to sign off U.K. access to SAFE, despite France — which has
consistently opposed non-EU countries taking part — supporting the British
inclusion.
Starmer has also signaled in recent days that he is seeking closer integration
with the EU’s single market. Brussels has so far been reluctant to reopen the
terms of the U.K.’s relations with the bloc just six years after it exited.
While those decisions lie with the remaining 27 EU member countries, rather than
the Parliament, Metsola’s intervention marks a shift in tone that could bolster
the British case for closer relations. In the context of increasingly tense
relations with the U.S., capitals are depending on cooperation with British
intelligence and military capabilities and in key industries.
Europe must take “the next steps towards a stronger European defense, boosting
our capabilities and cooperation, and working closely with our NATO allies so
that Europe can better protect its people,” Metsola said.
LONDON — Keir Starmer will draft a new law to strip Peter Mandelson of his right
to sit in Britain’s House of Lords after new revelations about the former
British ambassador to Washington’s links to convicted sex offender Jeffrey
Epstein appeared in the Epstein files.
The British prime minister has asked officials to draft legislation to remove
Mandelson from the House of Lords “as quickly as possible,” his spokesman told
reporters Tuesday afternoon.
No.10 Downing Street said the Cabinet Office has also referred material to the
police after the newly released files appeared to show Mandelson sharing
live government policy deliberations with the disgraced financier.
The Metropolitan Police said Monday it is reviewing allegations of misconduct in
a public office.
Starmer’s spokesperson said the Epstein file documents “contain likely market
sensitive information surrounding the 2008 financial crash and official
activities thereafter to stabilize the economy.”
“Only people operating in an official capacity had access to this information,
[with] strict handling conditions to ensure it was not available to anyone who
could potentially benefit from it financially,” the spokesperson said, adding:
“It appears these safeguards were compromised.”
Mandelson, a former Labour Cabinet minister who twice had to resign from Tony
Blair’s government, was given a seat in the House of Lords by Gordon Brown in
2008 — a move which allowed Brown to appoint him as business secretary.
More recently, the peer was made U.S. ambassador by Starmer as he sought to
build strong ties with Donald Trump’s administration. The British prime minister
sacked Mandelson last year after the release of U.S. Department of Justice files
which shed new light on Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein.
The former ambassador quit the ruling Labour Party on Sunday— but Starmer is
under mounting political pressure to go further.
Starmer “regards it as ridiculous that a peerage cannot be removed, except with
primary legislation, something that has not happened since 1917,” his spokesman
said Tuesday.
“The prime minister believes there is a broader need for the House of Lords to
be able to remove transgressors more quickly,” the spokesperson added.
Downing Street has called for cross party support for its bid to modernize the
unelected House of Lords. Currently peers can retire from the upper chamber
— but they cannot be removed.
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Zittern um die Versorgungssicherheit:
Deutschlands Gasspeicher sind nur noch zu einem Drittel gefüllt. Während
Wirtschaftsministerin Katherina Reiche beschwichtigt, warnt die Branche vor
Engpässen an extrem kalten Tagen. Joana Lehner von “Energie und Klima am Morgen”
berichtet im Gespräch mit Gordon Repinski über die Sorgen der Energiebranche und
wie Unternehmen mit kurzfristigem Bedarf in finanzielle Nöte geraten könnten.
Ein kostenloses Probe-Abo des Pro-Newsletters gibt es hier.
Im 200-Sekunden-Interview erklärt Netzagentur-Chef Klaus Müller, warum er trotz
leerer Speicher keine Mangellage sieht, aber mit steigenden Preisen rechnet,
wenn auch nicht für private Haushalte.
Beben in Washington:
Drei Millionen neu veröffentlichte Seiten der Epstein-Akten erschüttern das
Machtzentrum der USA. Mittendrin: Präsident Donald Trump.
Washington-Korrespondent Jonathan Martin von POLITICO analysiert, warum der
Zynismus der US-Wähler gegenüber den Institutionen einen neuen Siedepunkt
erreicht.
Außerdem im Podcast:
Zahnarzt nur noch für Selbstzahler? Die Aufregung um den Vorstoß des
CDU-Wirtschaftsrates.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international,
hintergründig.
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Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.
Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski:
Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.
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PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron’s celebrations over the imminent
passage of the 2026 budget will be short-lived. Once it’s approved, he’s going
to be a lame duck until the presidential election of spring next year.
Current and former ministers, lawmakers and political aides — including three
Macron allies — told POLITICO that now that the budget fight is over and the
concerns of angry citizens and jittery markets are assuaged, the whole cycle of
French politics will shift to campaign mode at the expense of the dirty work of
lawmaking.
First will come next month’s municipal elections, where voters in all of
France’s 35,000-plus communes will elect mayors and city councils. Then all
attention will flip to the race for the all-powerful presidency, Macron cannot
run again due to term limits, and polls show he could be replaced by a candidate
from the far-right National Rally.
“It’s the end of [Macron’s] term,” a former adviser close to Prime Minister
Sébastien Lecornu said of the budget’s passage.
Gabriel Attal, Macron’s former prime minister who now leads the French
president’s party, confirmed in an interview with French media last month that
he told his troops the budget marked “the end” of Macron’s second term.
“I stand by what I said,” Attal told FranceInfo.
As president, Macron continues to exert a strong influence over foreign affairs
and defense, two realms that will keep him on the world stage given the
geopolitical upheaval brought on by U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term.
Domestically, however, he’s been hampered by the snap election in 2024 that
delivered a hung parliament.
Lecornu was only able to avoid being toppled over the passage of the budget, as
his two immediate predecessors were, thanks to his political savvy, some
compromises and a few bold decisions. These included pausing Macron’s flagship
pension reform that raised the retirement age and going back on his promise not
to use a constitutional backdoor to ram it through without a vote.
“Lecornu was smart enough to make the budget phase pass and end on a high
note. That’s commendable, given that [former Prime Ministers Michel] Barnier and
[François] Bayrou didn’t manage to do so, and he did it with considerable
skill,” said a ministerial adviser who, like others quoted in this piece, was
granted anonymity to speak candidly.
But Lecornu’s decision to prioritize uncontroversial measures in the coming
weeks speak to the difficulties that lie ahead.
These priorities include defining the division of power between the central
government and local authorities, and streamlining and centralizing welfare
payments that are currently doled out in an ad hoc fashion. Lecornu is also
planning to get to work early on France’s 2027 fiscal plans to try to prevent
the third budget crisis in a row.
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu leaves the Elysee Palace in Paris after
a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 28. His decision to prioritize uncontroversial
measures in the coming weeks speak to the difficulties ahead. | Mohammed
Badra/EPA
“There will be a presidential election in 2027. Before then, we need to agree on
a bottom line which allows the country to move forward,” government spokesperson
Maud Bregeon said Thursday on Sud Radio.
Lecornu has repeatedly stressed that his government should be disconnected from
the race for president, blaming “partisan appetites” for both the budget crisis
and the collapse of his 14-hour government, which was eventually replaced with a
suite of less ambitious ministers.
But it’s ironic that some French government officials and MPs are now saying the
self-described warrior-monk prime minister may have vaulted himself into the
realm of presidential contender with his budget win.
Mathieu Gallard, a pollster at Ipsos, said Lecornu had clearly become a
more viable presidential candidate but noted that the jump from prime minister
to president “is always a hard task.”
One parliamentary leader was much less sanguine. They said the same “partisan
appetites” Lecornu has long warned about will likely cost him his job
before voters head to the polls to choose Macron’s successor.
“[Lecornu] has few friends … And now that the budget has passed, every political
group can have fun throwing him out of office to plant their flag before the
next presidential election,” the leader said.
Anthony Lattier, Sarah Paillou and Elisa Bertholomey contributed to this
report.