BERLIN — A German parliamentary delegation visiting Washington late last month saw center-left MPs frozen out by the U.S. State Department, people familiar with the matter told POLITICO. German MPs refused to take part in the meeting after their colleagues were blocked — a highly unusual step. U.S. authorities insisted there had been no effort to favor right-leaning parties and that they speak to a “wide spectrum” of politicians during such visits. In a separate encounter, an MP with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), Peter Felser, who was also part of the delegation, arranged a meeting at the Pentagon where he talked with a U.S. official about Germany’s defense posture. The clash over the visit comes in the wake of a new National Security Strategy from December that harshly criticized U.S.-allied nations in Europe for their efforts to rein in far-right parties; denounced their high rates of migration; and called for the continent to “correct its current trajectory.” The German lawmakers were supposed to be on a routine visit, during which they would take part in the German-American Dialogue on China. The delegation included two senior lawmakers from Germany’s governing coalition — Norbert Röttgen with the center-right Christian Democrats and Siemtje Möller for the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), as well as MPs from the opposition center-left Greens and the AfD. The plan had been for lawmakers from all parties to attend a meeting with Brendan Hanrahan, a senior official at the State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, on Jan. 21 before the China event. Five people with knowledge of the matter, who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity, said the planned meeting collapsed after State Department officials told the German Embassy in Washington that it was prepared to receive only Christian Democratic and AfD lawmakers, excluding the SPD and the Greens. Röttgen rejected that format, saying he would not proceed without his coalition partner, four people familiar with the matter said.  It’s unclear, however, who ultimately cancelled the appointment. In response to POLITICO’s request for comment, Germany’s foreign ministry declined to explain the cancellation, saying only that the State Department had called off the meeting for “scheduling reasons.” The State Department denied any preference for particular parties during delegation visits, saying in a statement that “senior State Department officials engage regularly with representatives from a wide spectrum of political parties and leaders, and we do not comment on private diplomatic meetings.” Norbert Röttgen, who rejected the meeting format, saying he would not proceed without his coalition partner, four people familiar with the matter said. | Elisa Schu/picture alliance via Getty Images Such parliamentary trips are normally built around engagement with both sitting governments and opposition — and the episode left German officials privately uneasy about how parts of the Trump administration are approaching Europe. Möller and Röttgen nonetheless went on to hold meetings with U.S. lawmakers and officials at the National Security Council during their visit. Röttgen’s office did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.  In a statement to POLITICO, Möller said the episode showed that “even a year into office, parts of the U.S. administration still lack clear coordination and reliable alignment,” but stressed that talks with administration officials and Republican members of Congress nevertheless took place. PENTAGON BRIEFING In the separately arranged Pentagon visit, the AfD’s Felser held a one-on-one meeting with David A. Baker, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy.  Felser had requested the appointment roughly two weeks earlier through the German embassy, people familiar with the arrangements on both the U.S. and German side said. The conversation focused on the new U.S. National Security Strategy and Washington’s expectations that Germany take on a greater leadership role in European defense. The AfD has surged in popularity and is now Germany’s most popular party, according to POLITICO’s poll of polls. Last year, Vice President JD Vance sharply criticized European centrists for excluding the far right and later met with AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel.  Felser told POLITICO that Washington’s willingness to meet him showed the U.S. was not “falling for” what he called the coalition’s attempt to sideline the AfD, adding that the “channel of conversation” the U.S. had opened amounted to “important support” for his party. Speaking about the Pentagon meeting, a Department of Defense official said that its officials “meet with allied parliamentarians regularly to discuss defense issues of mutual concern.” Both Felser and Gerald Otten, the other AfD politician who was present in Washington with the parliamentary delegation, said that U.S. officials had over the last months actively reached out to their party to establish whether future cooperation would be viable. For now, the conversations revolved around pinning down the AfD’s positions on a range of issues that included the EU, NATO, and the promise of NATO member countries to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP.  Back in Berlin, Röttgen told reporters he had been surprised at what he described as the “entrenched, virtually impenetrable worldview” of members of the pro-Trump MAGA camp — including the diplomats, politicians and lobbyists the German delegation had met over a lunch in the U.S. That was something, Röttgen said, he had “never encountered in all the years I have traveled to Washington.”

MADRID — Spain’s conservatives hope a trio of impending regional elections will collapse the government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the EU’s only remaining heavyweight national leader from the center left. First up this Sunday is the northeastern region of Aragón, dubbed the “Spanish Ohio” thanks to its track record as a barometer of the national mood. The center-right People’s Party (PP) appears to be heading for victory, but a surging far right is likely to make the biggest gains. Aragón will be followed by two more elections in PP-held regions — Castilla y León in March and Andalusia in June. For the conservatives, the goal is to seize on the corruption scandals in the Socialist party, which have severely weakened Sánchez, to confirm the PP’s regional dominance and dial up pressure on the government in Madrid. Speaking to supporters on the campaign trail in the town of Calatayud, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the PP, called on Aragón’s voters “to be the spokespeople of all Spaniards on Sunday at the ballot box.” “Friends, vote to stop the lies, to stop the corruption, to stop the arrogance and to stop the discredit into which national politics has fallen,” he said. Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at Barcelona’s Autonomous University, said the key across these regional elections was to build momentum at the national level. “The [PP’s] intention is to convert all these elections into a national story,” he said. “If the PP wins and the Socialists suffer a bad defeat, that will be used to say that Sánchez must step down because his party is in freefall.” PILING ON THE PRESSURE Sánchez’s coalition is already on the ropes following a storm of scandals. Probes into a kickback scheme implicating two former senior Socialists, as well as sexual harassment allegations concerning other figures in the party, have been hogging headlines in recent months. An ongoing investigation into the business dealings of Sánchez’s wife and the upcoming trial of his brother on charges of influence peddling have given the opposition further ammunition. Meanwhile, two January train crashes that killed a combined 47 people and triggered rail chaos in some parts of Spain have added to the government’s woes. A ballot held in the western region of Extremadura in December handed the PP electoral momentum: The party made modest gains while the Socialists lost 10 of their 28 seats. The Aragón election is a snap ballot called by regional president Jorge Azcón amid a parliamentary impasse that followed a decision by the far-right Vox to withdraw support for the conservatives. “Friends, vote to stop the lies, to stop the corruption, to stop the arrogance and to stop the discredit into which national politics has fallen,” Alberto Núñez Feijóo said. | ZIPI/EPA Polls suggest Aragón is heading for a similar result to Extremadura, with the PP clearly ahead and possibly making slight gains. The Socialists, meanwhile, are left hoping to avoid their worst-ever result in the region. Polls have the PP on track to win about 28 seats in the 67-seat assembly, with Vox taking 12 to 14 and the Socialists 17 or 18. In every general election since the country’s return to democracy in 1977, the winning party in Aragón has been the national overall victor, earning it the “Spanish Ohio” nickname — although analysts say its capital Zaragoza and the province that surrounds it currently provide a more reliable measure of the national vote. With a surface area slightly greater than that of Switzerland, the region borders Catalonia to the east and France to the north, encompassing vast rural areas. But it has also developed a reputation as a technological hub, and Zaragoza is Spain’s fifth-largest city. WARNINGS ABOUT VOX The Socialists have also given the election a national dimension by deploying the former minister of education, training and sport, Pilar Alegría, as their candidate. The warning from the Socialists is that Vox — which triggered the regional election in a clash with the PP over the acceptance of unaccompanied migrant children — could still ultimately agree to form a majority with the PP after extracting concessions. The Aragón election is a snap ballot called by regional president Jorge Azcón amid a parliamentary impasse that followed a decision by the far-right Vox to withdraw support for the conservatives. | Chema Moya/EPA Prime Minister Sánchez has campaigned alongside Alegría, urging voters to mobilize against the prospect of a consolidated PP-Vox majority, which he casts as part of an international radical right-wing tide. “The question we have to ask ourselves here in Aragón is: What you don’t want for the rest of the world, do you want that for Europe, for Spain and for Aragón?” the prime minister said at a campaign rally in the city of Teruel. He condemned the “misogyny and hate” of Vox, which he warned could form part of a coalition with the PP if they secured a majority. Tomás Guitarte, the leading candidate for Aragón Exists, which seeks to represent voters in rural areas, said such debates have distracted from more pressing concerns. “Sixty percent of the population of Aragón lives in two percent of its territory, while the rest are suffering serious problems related to depopulation,” he told POLITICO.  “They should be talking about this but instead the national leaders come here and turn the campaign into a national debate, focused on what concerns them in Madrid more than the real concerns of Aragón,” he said. Guitarte also pointed to housing as a serious concern for voters. Describing itself as cutting across party lines, Aragón Existe presents itself as a potential coalition partner for the PP, which is unlikely to secure an outright majority. However, Vox is likely to be the PP’s only viable partner and the one set to make the most substantial gains. The national conservative party has been courting the region’s farming sector with attacks on EU agricultural policy while condemning the central government’s willingness to welcome migrants. Polls show Vox could come close to doubling its seven seats, echoing its strong performance in national polls. The Socialists have also given the election a national dimension by deploying the former minister of education, training and sport, Pilar Alegría, as their candidate. | Mariscal/EPA Bartomeus said the PP was struggling to fend off the electoral threat posed by Vox, which divides the right. “The more Vox’s support increases, the worse the PP will perform,” he said. “The PP doesn’t go up substantially because part of its voter base is going to Vox.” Political analysts don’t generally believe the Aragón result alone could force Sánchez to bring forward the general election, scheduled for 2027. But the cumulative effect of defeats there, in Castilla y León and, above all, in the former Socialist stronghold of Andalusia could make it very hard for Sánchez to hang on.

PARIS — Marine Le Pen recent public statements seem to indicate that she’s losing faith in her effort to quash the five-year election ban standing in the way of her becoming France’s next president. In her latest comments Tuesday, outside the gilded Parisian courtroom where she has been appealing since January an embezzlement conviction that knocked her out of the 2027 election, Le Pen told reporters: “I never expect a good surprise when I step into a courtroom.” But, she added: “I am a believer. I still believe in miracles.” The dour pessimism in those and similar comments is striking coming from a leader who had vowed to fight what she framed as politically motivated hit job. Le Pen even held a Stop-the-Steal-type rally last year after she and her codefendants were found guilty of misappropriating €4 million of European Parliament funds. But as the months have dragged on, Le Pen has seemed increasingly resigned, recognizing that her shot at the French presidency is slipping away just as her party, the National Rally, is enjoying an historic surge in popularity. Nonetheless, it’s possible the doom and gloom are all part of her strategy to express more contrition to get a more favorable verdict. Whatever it is, Le Pen has presented this appeal as her last chance to mount a bid for the Elysée Palace and acknowledged publicly that she may be forced to step aside in favor of her 30-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella.  Tuesday’s sentencing recommendations appeared to confirm her suspicions at first.  Prosecutors asked the court to uphold her five-year electoral ban, but in an unexpected twist, argued against its immediate implementation.  Should the court agree, it offers Le Pen a small glimmer of hope. But it’s a legally complex and politically risky path back into the race, and one that Le Pen herself appears to be placing little hope in.  WHAT’S THE DEAL WITH IMMEDIATE IMPLEMENTATION?  In French criminal law, penalties are typically lifted when a defendant appeals a verdict to a higher court.   Part of the reason Le Pen’s initial sentence drew so much backlash is prosecutors argued — and the judges agreed — that her crimes were so grave that her ban on running for public office should be handed down immediately, regardless of whether she appeals.  But during the appeal the prosecution did not recommend immediate implementation because there was insufficient proof that Le Pen could commit further crimes if she is not sanctioned immediately.  SO, CAN LE PEN RUN FOR PRESIDENT?   In theory, if the appeals court rules in a manner that bars Le Pen from running in 2027 but does not order immediate implementation, she could appeal again to an even higher court — thereby lifting her ban temporarily. She would then need to hope that the gears of the justice system grind slowly enough to push the issue past the next election. But it’s not clear cut. Some French legal scholars have debated if and how a new appeal would lift her electoral ban at all. Le Pen has said she will make a final call once there is a verdict in the current appeal. She has also said she would drop out of the running if the electoral ban is upheld to avoid the risk of having the National Rally run its presidential campaign with no guarantee of who the candidate would be until the last minute — an ignominious end to a career dedicated to dragging her far-right party from the political fringes into the mainstream. It is unclear if a ban without immediate implementation, as sought by the prosecutors, changes her reasoning — but her comments to French broadcaster TF1-LCI after the prosecutors made their recommendation seemed to indicate that she’d still rule herself out in that eventuality. “If the prosecutors’ recommendations are followed, I won’t be able to run,” she said. Le Pen now has to hope that she’ll be acquitted, which appears unlikely, or that the case’s three-judge panel reduces or scraps her electoral ban. The judges are under no obligation to follow the prosecution’s recommendations. WHEN WILL THIS BE RESOLVED? The judges hearing the case are expected to render a verdict before the summer.   The Cour de Cassation, which would take up any ensuing appeal, has said it would aim to examine the case and issue a final ruling before the 2027 election “if possible.” 

A Hungarian court on Wednesday sentenced German national Maja T. to eight years in prison on charges related to an assault on a group of right-wing extremists in Budapest two years ago. The case attracted national attention in Germany following the extradition of the defendant to Hungary in 2024, a move which Germany’s top court subsequently judged to have been illegal. Politicians on the German left have repeatedly expressed concern over whether the defendant, who identifies as non-binary, was being treated fairly by Hungary’s legal system. Hungarian prosecutors accused Maja T. of taking part in a series of violent attacks on people during a neo-Nazi gathering in Budapest in February 2023, with attackers allegedly using batons and rubber hammers and injuring several people, some seriously. The defendant was accused of acting alongside members of a German extreme-left group known as Hammerbande or “Antifa Ost.” The Budapest court found Maja T. guilty of attempting to inflict life-threatening bodily harm and membership in a criminal organization. The prosecution had sought a 24-year prison sentence, arguing the verdict should serve as a deterrent; the defendant has a right to appeal. German politicians on the left condemned the court’s decision. “The Hungarian government has politicized the proceedings against Maja T. from the very beginning,” Helge Limburg, a Greens lawmaker focused on legal policy, wrote on X. “It’s a bad day for the rule of law.” The case sparked political tensions between Hungary and Germany after Maja T. went on a hunger strike in June to protest conditions in jail. Several German lawmakers later visited to express their solidarity, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called on Hungary to improve detention conditions for Maja T. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s illiberal government is frequently accused of launching a culture war on LGBTQ+ people, including by moving to ban Pride events, raising concerns among German left-wing politicians and activists over the treatment of Maja T. by the country’s legal system. Maja T.’s lawyers criticized the handling of evidence and what they described as the rudimentary hearing of witnesses, according to German media reports.

ATHENS — Greece’s parliament is expected to pass double-edged legislation on Wednesday that will help recruit tens of thousands more South Asian workers, while simultaneously penalizing migrants that the government says have entered the country illegally. Greece’s right-wing administration seeks to style itself as tough on migration but needs to pass Wednesday’s bill thanks to a crippling labor shortfall in vital sectors such as tourism, construction and agriculture. The central idea of the new legislation is to simplify bringing in workers through recruitment schemes agreed with countries such as India, Bangladesh and Egypt. There will be a special “fast track” for big public-works projects. The New Democracy government knows, however, that these measures to recruit more foreign workers will play badly with some core supporters. For that reason the bill includes strong measures against immigrants who have already entered Greece illegally, and also pledges to clamp down on the non-government organizations helping migrants. “We need workers, but we are tough on illegal immigration,” Greece’s Migration Minister Thanos Plevris told ERT television. The migration tensions in Greece reflect the extent to which it remains a hot button issue across Europe, even though numbers have dropped significantly since the massive flows of 2015, when the Greek Aegean islands were one of the main points of arrival. More than 80,000 positions for immigrants have been approved by the Greek state annually over the past two years. There are no official figures on labor shortages, but studies from industry associations indicate the country’s needs are more than double the state-approved number of spots, and that only half of those positions are filled. The migration bill is expected to pass because the government holds a majority in parliament. Opposition parties have condemned it, saying it ignores the need to integrate the migrants already in Greece and adopts the rhetoric of the far right. Under the new legislation, migrants who entered the country illegally will have no opportunity to acquire legal status. The bill also abolishes a provision granting residence permits to unaccompanied minors once they turn 18, provided they attend school in Greece. “Whoever is illegal right now will remain illegal, and when they are located they will be arrested, imprisoned for two to five years and repatriated,” Plevris told lawmakers. Human-rights groups also oppose the legislation, which they say criminalizes humanitarian NGOs by explicitly linking their migration-related activities to serious crimes.  The bill envisages severe penalties such as mandatory prison terms of at least 10 years and heavy fines for assisting irregular entry, providing transport for illegal migration, or helping those migrants stay. “Whoever is illegal right now will remain illegal,” Thanos Plevris told lawmakers. | Orestis Panagiotou/EPA Wednesday’s legislation also grants the migration minister broad powers to deregister NGOs based solely on criminal charges against one member, and will allow residence permits to be revoked on the basis of suspicion alone — undermining the presumption of innocence. Greece’s national ombudsman has expressed serious concerns about the bill, arguing that punishing people for entering the country illegally contravenes international conventions on the treatment of refugees. Lefteris Papagiannakis, director of the Greek Council for Refugees, was equally damning. “This binary political approach follows the global hostile and racist policy around migration,” he said.

PARIS — French prosecutors on Tuesday recommended that a five-year electoral ban on far-right leader Marine Le Pen should be confirmed — a move that, if accepted by the court, would likely prevent her from running in next year’s presidential election. Le Pen’s far-right National Rally is comfortably ahead in polls ahead of the first round of the 2027 election but she is currently looking unlikely to be able to stand as the presidential candidate herself thanks to a five-year election ban, imposed over her conviction last year for embezzling European Parliament funds — a ban she is now appealing. In that appeal proceeding on Tuesday, the prosecutors sought not only the electoral prohibition but four years jail, with one served as a custodial sentence. In an unexpected twist, however, prosecutors did not insist that the ban should be immediately implemented. This could offer her a theoretical long-shot back into the race, but it appears legally complex and politically risky. Le Pen herself did not signal any major shift in the case. In remarks to BFMTV, Le Pen said the prosecution in the appeal was “following the path taken” during the first trial. The court is due to make a final decision on the appeal this summer. When it came to her narrow route back to the presidential race, the prosecutors said the court should not impose the five-year ban immediately because there was insufficient proof that the three-time presidential candidate could commit further crimes if she is not sanctioned immediately. This means that, even if found guilty at appeal, Le Pen could still try to have the penalty lifted by bringing the case before a supreme court. The supreme court which would look into the case, the Cour de Cassation, said it would examine the legal challenge and make a final ruling before the 2027 election “if possible.” That timing could be politically problematic for Le Pen, if the supreme court does not come to a decision until shortly before the race. Le Pen had said she would drop out of the running if her electoral ban was upheld. It is unclear if a ban without immediate implementation, as sought by the prosecutors, would now change her reasoning. Le Pen has been increasingly expected to be replaced by her 30-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella because of her legal woes. Although he originally triggered doubts within his own political camp on his ability to stand the rigors of a presidential election, he has surpassed Le Pen as France’s most popular politician according to recent polling. Le Pen has already run for president three times, making the runoff in the last two elections and losing to Emmanuel Macron. The 2027 election is widely seen as the best shot yet for a National Rally candidate to win and become the first democratically elected far-right leader in France since World War II. Le Pen has shifted her defense strategy since the start of her appeal trial, with a partial acknowledgement that some wrongdoing may have been committed unintentionally. The National Rally has described the case as politicized. Le Pen and her co-defendants are accused of having embezzled funds from the European Parliament by having party staff hired as parliamentary assistants, while working solely on domestic affairs rather than legislative work.

Italian MEP Roberto Vannacci on Tuesday formally broke with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party, capping weeks of internal turmoil and exposing a widening rift on Italy’s right. “I’m chasing a dream, and I’m going far. National Future,” Vannacci, who was Salvini’s deputy, wrote on X. He confirmed plans to move ahead with a new political project to the right of the League, called National Future. The split followed a League federal council meeting and a late-night face-to-face between Salvini and Vannacci on Monday that failed to heal the divide between League moderates, led by Salvini, and Vannacci’s extremists. Vannacci led a faction of the party that had openly challenged policies of the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, including its support for Ukraine. In his announcement, Vannacci drew a sharp ideological line, rejecting what he called a diluted right. “My right is not an à la carte menu … and above all it’s not moderate,” he wrote, describing it instead as “true, coherent, nationalist, strong, proud, convinced, enthusiastic, pure and contagious.” In response, Salvini wrote on X : “Angry? No, disappointed and bitter.” The message was also circulated in the party’s internal WhatsApp channels to confirm the break. The League leader stressed that the party had embraced Vannacci when others shunned him, offering him broad electoral opportunities and senior roles. “Being part of a party, a community, a family means not only receiving but work, sacrifice and above all loyalty,” Salvini wrote, adding that recent months had been marked by “rows, problems, tension” and signs of potential splinter movements. The split raises fresh questions about Vannacci’s political future, after the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament removed him from its ranks. In a statement shared with POLITICO by League officials, the group said his departure from the League party made his continued presence incompatible with the group’s political structure, while stressing that cooperation with Salvini’s League remains unchanged at European level. It is also unclear how many lawmakers will follow Vannacci. All eyes are now on several Italian MPs close to him — including Domenico Furgiuele, Rossano Sasso and Edoardo Ziello.

ROME — Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini faces a battle to save his far-right League party from electoral oblivion. The party’s internal crisis exploded into public view last week after Salvini’s maverick deputy, Roberto Vannacci, an ex-general and defender of fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, threatened to form a splinter party to the right of the League called National Future. Salvini seeks to play down the split with his No. 2, but Vannacci’s move revealed starkly how the League — a key part of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing ruling coalition — risks disintegrating as a political force before next year’s elections. Current and former party members told POLITICO that Salvini’s rift with Vannacci had exposed a deeper and potentially devastating factional struggle at the heart of the party — between moderates and extremists, and over whether the League should return to its roots ad seek northern autonomy from Rome. In the short term, weakness in the League could bring some relief to the Atlanticist, pro-NATO Meloni, who is prone to irritation at the anti-Ukrainian, Kremlin-aligned outbursts of Salvini and Vannacci, who are supposed to be her allies. In the longer term, however, the party’s full implosion would potentially make it harder for her to build coalitions and to maintain Italy’s unusually stable government. PUBLIC FEUD The tensions between Salvini and Vannacci became impossible to disguise last month. On Jan. 24 Vannacci registered a trademark for his new National Future party. He later distanced himself from an Instagram account announcing the party’s launch, but hinted on X that he could still turn to social media to launch a party when the time was ripe. “If I decide to open such channels, I will be sure to inform you,” he said. By Jan. 29 Salvini was in full firefighting mode. Speaking before the stately tapestries of the Sala della Regina in Italy’s parliament, he insisted there was “no problem.” “There is space for different sensibilities in the League … we want to build and grow, not fight,” he added, vowing to hold a meeting with Vannacci to set the relationship back on course. Many in the League are more hostile to Vannacci, however, particularly those alarmed by the former paratrooper’s placatory language about Mussolini and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. A powerful bloc in the League that is more socially moderate — and deeply committed to northern autonomy — is pressing for Salvini to take the initiative and fire Vannacci, according to two people involved in the party discussions. Daniele Albertazzi, a politics professor and expert on populism at the University of Surrey, said a schism looked imminent. “[Vannacci] is not going to spend years building someone else’s party,” Albertazzi said. “It’s clear he doesn’t want to play second fiddle to Salvini.” FROM ASSET TO LIABILITY Vannacci emerged from obscurity in 2023 with a self-published bestseller “The World Back to Front.” It espoused the Great Replacement Theory — a conspiracy that white populations are being deliberately replaced by non-whites — and branded gay people “not normal.” More recently he has stated he prefers Putin to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Vannacci emerged from obscurity in 2023, with a self-published bestseller “The World Back to Front.” | Nicola Ciancaglini/Ciancaphoto Studio/Getty Images Albertazzi said Vannacci was positioning himself on the extreme right. “You can see it even in the typography of his symbol [for National Future], which evokes the fascist era,” he said. Salvini originally identified the military veteran as a lifeline who could reverse the League’s flagging fortunes. Salvini had early success in transforming the League from a regional party “of the north” into a national force, and it won a record 34 percent of the Italian vote in the 2019 European elections. But by 2022 things were souring, and support collapsed to about 8 percent in the general election. Vannacci was brought in to broaden the party’s appeal and shore up his own leadership. The gamble initially paid off. In the 2024 European elections, Vannacci personally received more than 500,000 preference votes — roughly 1.5 percent of the national total —validating Salvini’s strategy. But Vannacci has since become a liability. He was responsible for a failed regional campaign in his native Tuscany in October and has flouted party discipline, building his own internal group, opening local branches and organizing rallies outside the League’s control, operating as “a party within a party.” In recent interviews Vannacci has increasingly flirted with the idea of going solo with his own party. For the traditional northern separatist camp in the League, Vannacci has gone too far. Luca Zaia, head of the Veneto regional assembly, a towering figure in northern politics, and three other major northern leaders are now demanding privately that he be expelled, according to two League insiders.  “His ideas are nationalist and fascist, and have never been compatible with the League,” said a party member, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal disputes. “The writing is on the page. Since the first provocation it has been clear that it is only a matter of when, not if, he starts his own party.”  An elected League official added: “Now if he gets votes it’s Salvini’s fault for giving him a ton of publicity. No one had heard of him before. He basically won the lottery.” Attilio Fontana, a senior League official who is president of the Lombardy region, said Vannacci’s actions raised questions for Salvini. “I think that if inside the party there are differences, that can enrich the party. But creating local branches, holding demonstrations outside the party, registering a new logo and website, this is an anomaly … these are issues that [Salvini] will be looking at,” he told reporters in Milan on Friday.  EVERY VOTE COUNTS There’s no guarantee any party Vannacci launches will be a success. Three leaders in his “World Back to Front” movement — seen as a precursor to his National Future party — quit on Friday, issuing a statement that described a lack of leadership and “permanent chaos.” But his party could upset the political landscape, even if he only peels off relatively minor support from the League. Meloni will have a close eye on the arithmetic of potential alliances in the run-up to next year’s election, particularly if left-wing parties team up against her. Giorgia Meloni will have a close eye on the arithmetic of potential alliances in the run-up to next year’s election. | Simona Granati/Corbis via Getty Images Polling expert Lorenzo Pregliasco of You Trend, which is canvassing a potential new party led by Vannacci, said it had a potential electorate on the right of the coalition of about 2 per cent,  among voters who had supported [Meloni’s] Brothers of Italy, League voters and non-voters with an anti immigrant, anti-political correctness stance, who are attracted by Vannacci’s outspokenness.  The potential party “poses some risks for Meloni and the coalition … It’s not a huge electorate but in national elections two points could make the difference between winning and not winning, or winning but with a very narrow majority that could mean you were not able to form a government.”  Vannacci “has been clever in putting himself forward as a provocative opinion leader and converted this into electoral success … He has the potential to be a strong media presence and central to political debate.” The northern separatist Pact for the North movement, led by former League MP Paolo Grimoldi, said Salvini’s reputation was now damaged because of the faith he put in Vannacci. While Salvini could resign and support an alternative figure such Zaia as League leader, this was extremely unlikely, Grimoldi told POLITICO. “If not, there aren’t tools to get rid of him before the next election,” he added.  “The result will be political irrelevance and electoral defeat [for the League].”

LISBON — To stop the explosive growth of the ultranationalist Chega party, Portugal’s leading conservatives are doing the previously unthinkable: endorsing the center-left candidate for president. Last week, Portugal’s prominent center-right politicians are publicly backing António José Seguro — a former secretary general of the Socialist Party — in the runoff presidential election on Feb. 8. The conservative endorsement is a collective rejection of the opposing candidate, far-right Chega leader André Ventura, who was the runner-up in the first round of voting in January. Although current polls indicate Ventura has no real possibility of winning the second round, the conservatives publicly backing Seguro say they’re doing so to underscore the center-right’s commitment to democratic values. Those who have spoken out include former President and Prime Minister Aníbal Cavaco Silva, former Deputy Prime Minister Paulo Portas, as well as former European Commissioner for Research and current Lisbon Mayor Carlos Moedas. Thousands of electors have also signed an open letter of support for Seguro, which was issued by a group of self-declared “non-socialist” public figures. Ventura secured nearly a quarter of the ballots in the first round of voting, and his performance highlights Chega’s remarkable ascent. By campaigning against minority groups such as the Roma community, increased immigration and denouncing government corruption, the ultranationalist group has gone from having just one lawmaker in parliament to being the country’s leading opposition party in just six years. “We have to draw a red line between liberal and illiberal forces,” said political consultant Henrique Burnay, a signatory of the open letter backing Seguro. “And my center-right democratic and liberal values have no connection with the positions the radical right defends.” André Ventura secured nearly a quarter of the ballots in the first round of voting, and his performance highlights Chega’s remarkable ascent. | Zed Jameson/Anadolu via Getty Images This is a clear choice between “a candidate for whom I may not feel enthusiasm, and one who is bent on polarizing the public, unilaterally deciding who are good or bad citizens, and who earnestly worries me,” he said. Luís Marques Mendes, who ran an unsuccessful presidential campaign on behalf of the governing center-right Social Democratic Party, said he would also commit his vote to Seguro because “he is the only candidate who comes close to the values I have always defended: defense of democracy, guaranteeing space for moderation, respect for the purpose of representing all Portuguese people.” PRIME MINISTER UNDER PRESSURE The avalanche of conservative support for Seguro is a source of discomfort for Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, who is declining to endorse either candidate in the presidential runoff. During a session of the Portuguese parliament, lawmakers lambasted the center-right leader for failing to choose between “a democrat” and someone who wants to “end the democratic regime.” The country’s political analysts interpret the prime minister’s refusal to back Seguro as a tactical decision aimed at not alienating the most conservative wing of his party, which would consider any support for a former socialist leader unacceptable. João Cotrim de Figueiredo, one of the most prominent figures in the economically liberal Liberal Initiative party, was similarly criticized for not explicitly backing the center-left candidate. Last week, however, he tacitly admitted he would vote for Seguro by declaring he’d neither cast a ballot for Ventura nor abstain from voting — a pragmatic approach, as his party’s voter base is made up of right-leaning young men who could defect to Chega. The avalanche of conservative support for António José Seguro is now a source of discomfort for Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, who is declining to endorse either candidate in the presidential runoff. | Rita Franca/LightRocket via Getty Images According to António Costa Pinto, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences, the center-right’s decision to mobilize against Ventura makes sense because of the power accorded to the president, who can veto laws, appoint members of key state and judicial bodies, and dissolve parliament. “In the unlikely scenario that Ventura secured the presidency, there is little doubt that he would use it to do everything to give his party control of the government … and pose a serious threat to the institutional functioning of Portuguese democracy,” he said. But, Costa Pinto explained, the conservatives’ decision to publicly back Seguro could end up paradoxically benefiting Ventura, as he will likely use their endorsements to reaffirm his claim that the country’s center-right and center-left parties are virtually identical mainstream entities. “This allows Ventura to reinforce his image as an anti-establishment leader who represents the people and fights the elites,” he said. “As long as he obtains between 35 and 40 percent of the vote when the runoff is held — which is to say, more than the 32 percent Prime Minister Luís Montenegro secured in last year’s parliamentary elections — he’ll also be able to claim he’s the true leader of the Portuguese right.”

BERLIN — Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is heading back to the Munich Security Conference (MSC) — reclaiming a seat at one of the world’s most prestigious security forums after being banished for three straight years. The decision to invite AfD lawmakers to the mid-February gathering marks a significant reversal for the conference and a symbolic win for a party eager to shed its pariah status by rubbing shoulders with global leaders. The AfD mounted an aggressive campaign beginning late last year to regain access to the MSC, including legal action against conference organizers and attempts to capitalize on relationships with Trump administration officials. That effort appears to have paid off, at least in part. MSC organizers have invited three AfD parliamentarians to attend this year’s conference, though the party has pushed for more prominent figures — including national co-chair Alice Weidel — to be included. “The invitations were issued because we made an impression with our contacts to the Americans,” Heinrich Koch, one of three AfD parliamentarians who received an invite, told POLITICO. Koch, by his own account and that of one of the AfD’s legal representatives, was deployed by the party to gain access to the MSC. Wolfgang Ischinger, the prominent German diplomat acting as MSC chair this year, denied that conference organizers invited the AfD due to a pressure campaign, framing the decision rather as one that acknowledges a simple political reality: that the AfD is the largest opposition force in Germany. “It is a decision that we took on our own conscience, if you wish, trying to do the right thing in order to make sure that we would be able to reflect the current reality,” he told POLITICO. “It would be very difficult for the Munich Security Conference — which brings together so many opposing views, adversaries, people who accuse each other [of being] murderers or genocidal people — for us to justify categorically excluding the largest German opposition party.” LEGACY OF NAZI RESISTANCE This year won’t be the first time AfD politicians have attended the MSC. During Ischinger’s previous tenure as head of the conference, which lasted from 2008 to 2022, AfD politicians with a focus on defense were invited to the conference. But since that time, the AfD has come under the increasing scrutiny of national and state domestic intelligence agencies tasked with monitoring groups deemed anti-constitutional, culminating last year in the party’s federal classification as a right-wing extremist organization. Ischinger’s successor, career diplomat Christoph Heusgen, refused to invite AfD leaders for the past three conferences, arguing that a party deemed at that point to have been at least partly right-wing extremist by intelligence authorities had no place at the event. After all, he argued, the conference was founded after World War II by Ewald von Kleist, one of the aristocratic Wehrmacht officers now revered in Germany for having partaken in the failed 1944 plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler. “I can well imagine that Ewald von Kleist would have supported my decision against the AfD,” Heusgen told German newspaper Tagesspiegel. Wolfgang Ischinger speaking at the 2023 Munich Security Conference in Munich. He denied that conference organizers invited the AfD this year due to a pressure campaign. | Johannes Simon/EPA Heusgen stepped aside after last year’s conference, and this year Ischinger is back at the helm. But it was in response to Heusgen’s rejection of the party that the AfD sued late last year to get into the conference this February. The AfD said it was a victim of “targeted exclusion,” according to documents from the Munich regional court seen by POLITICO.  “The plaintiff wishes to be involved in foreign policy and security policy issues in order to have a say as an opposition faction,” the court said. But the court ultimately rejected the AfD’s argument, ruling last December that the MSC, as a private organization, is free to choose whom to invite. Koch, who was in court on behalf of the AfD parliamentary group, says he pressured the MSC side during the proceeding to invite party members by threatening to come to the conference anyway as guests of the American delegation. Soon after, his party received three invitations, he said.  The MSC denied in emailed comments to POLITICO that such threats had led to the invites. EMPTY THREATS? The AfD’s threats appear to have consisted mostly of bluster. Koch said he reached out to the office of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, who is set to attend the conference, but never heard back from the Republican lawmaker. Graham did not respond to three requests for comment. The threat nevertheless illustrates how the AfD has sought to utilize past support from the Trump administration to pressure the MSC and, more broadly, to end its domestic political ostracization. The AfD’s effort to get into the MSC can be seen as part of a larger push to knock down the so-called firewall mainstream forces have erected around the far right, precluding close cooperation with the party despite its rising popularity. In that effort, the AfD has received support from the highest rungs of the Trump administration. At last year’s MSC, U.S. Vice President JD Vance sharply criticized European centrists for excluding the far right, declaring “there’s no room for firewalls.” Following his speech, JD Vance met with AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel in a Munich hotel.  Koch said the AfD would attempt to organize a similar high-level meeting this year, though it’s not clear Vance will attend the February conference. Koch said he has also sought an invitation for Weidel, but the MSC had denied it. The MSC’s Ischinger said he and his team would not issue any further invitations to AfD politicians. Weidel’s spokesperson, Daniel Tapp, denied that the AfD had used the prospect of another meeting with a high-level Trump administration official to press for invites to the MSC, but said a “certain pressure” had led to three of its lawmakers being invited. Weidel’s plans for the conference remain unclear. “We will wait and see over the next few days whether anything else develops in this matter,” said Tapp late last month. As of Friday, no meeting involving Weidel and U.S. officials during the MSC had been planned, according to Tapp. Ischinger said any AfD events occurring outside the confines of the MSC are irrelevant to the conference. “They can organize a huge conference, you know, if you ask me,” he said. “And it’s not my business to stop them or discuss this with them. It’s their business, but it has nothing to do with the Munich Security Conference.” POLITICO is an official media partner of this year’s Munich Security Conference.