BRUSSELS — The EU’s centrist powers need to move to the right to reflect the new political reality, according to Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People’s Party. The EPP caused uproar in Brussels last year when it voted alongside the far right rather than with its traditional allies, the socialists and liberals. Weber’s remarks are the strongest signal yet that he wants to repair bridges with the other two parties that have ruled the EU for decades. However, he made clear that those same allies must be willing to adapt, in an exclusive interview with POLITICO, reflecting on 2025 and looking forward to 2026. The S&D and Renew were furious at the perceived betrayal, saying the EPP had gone too far by voting with the far right and smashed the firewall meant to keep the far right away from decision-making. But Weber was adamant he had done nothing wrong, saying: “I want to stop populism and anti-Europeans,” and adding that he’s happy to work alongside the centrist parties, but they need to listen to voters. The outcome of the 2024 EU election, which changed Parliament’s arithmetic in favor of right-wing and far-right parties, “has to be reflected” and “translated” into policy to show that Brussels is listening to its citizens, Weber said. There are more challenges to come for the old coalition — a deregulation package targeting environmental rules, a reversal of the ban on combustion engines, and a bill to boost deportations of migrants. “We can solve problems in the center when it is about the questions of migration, the big fear and uncertainty for a lot of people who are afraid to lose jobs … we have to take this seriously.” According to Weber, the way to fight Euroskeptic and populist parties is by tackling the issues they campaign on: “Please also consider … what we have to do to take away the campaign issues from the populists, that is what is at stake,” he added in the interview, which took place in late December. In his logic, if citizens are worried about migration, the EU should deport more people who are in Europe illegally; if people see green policy as hampering economic growth, Brussels should scrap environmental reporting requirements; and if thousands of jobs are being lost in the car sector, Brussels should give industry more leeway in the transition to electric vehicle production.   “My invitation goes really to the socialists and liberals and others: Please come back to this approach.“ MEET ME HALFWAY Weber — who has been an MEP since 2004, leader of the EPP group in the Parliament since 2014 and leader of the Europe-wide EPP since 2022 — said the center-right is “delivering via successes” and that he “will not be stopped by anyone” in implementing the party program. He argued that when the EPP has voted alongside the far right — to dilute an anti-deforestation bill, to pass green reporting requirements for businesses, and to ease rules to deport migrants to third countries — these were not “radical positions” and reflected the views of national governments and the European Commission. The votes are “not a kind of radicalization.” He said half of the liberal Renew Europe group voted in favor of slashing green reporting requirements for businesses and the EPP has voted with the S&D on “more than 85 percent of all votes in the European Parliament,” on issues ranging from housing to climate, including on a 2040 carbon reduction target, which he said should remain in place, even though parts of his group want to scrap it. Manfred Weber has called for the centrists to work with the Brothers of Italy, the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which is to the right of the EPP. | Ettore Ferrari/EPA “The EPP delivered on this, we are committed to the 2040 targets … It was also not easy in my party, I have to be honest.” MAKING FRIENDS WITH MELONI Since the start of the 2024 EU election campaign, Weber has called for the centrists to work with the Brothers of Italy, the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and a member of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which is to the right of the EPP. This has angered Socialists and liberals, who argue that Meloni is a far-right populist who should be excluded from EU decision-making. When Commission President Ursula von der Leyen granted Italy an executive vice-presidency in her second team, Meloni nominated Raffaele Fitto for the role, prompting an unsuccessful bid by Socialists and Liberals to block his appointment. The EPP defended Fitto’s candidacy, citing Meloni’s pragmatism and reliability at the EU level. Fitto is now executive vice-president for cohesion and reforms. Weber said time has proven him right. A year-and-a-half after the election, “I think nobody can really say that Raffaele Fitto is a right extreme populist … he’s a very serious colleague.” He blamed his centrist allies for focusing on rhetoric and “ideological debate” instead of looking at the “reality on the ground” and understanding Europe’s new right-wing political reality. Meloni is “behaving,” Weber said, and “she’s ready to find compromises.”

BRUSSELS — The European Parliament’s leading trade lawmakers on Wednesday postponed a decision on whether to freeze a U.S. trade deal over Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland.  MEPs are due to hold a vote on Jan. 26, laying out the European Parliament’s position on lifting tariffs on U.S. industrial goods — one of the key planks of a deal struck between Brussels and Washington last summer. But some MEPs, angry at Trump’s behavior, don’t want the vote to go ahead, thereby freezing the decision on lifting the tariffs.  But at a meeting of lawmakers leading on the topic, they decided to delay taking a decision on whether to postpone or go ahead with the vote, awaiting the outcome of high-stakes meetings between Washington, Nuuk and Copenhagen taking place later Wednesday. “We are not in a position to move the agreement to a vote today,” lead trade lawmaker Karin Karlsbro, of the liberal Renew Europe, told POLITICO, adding that clarity from the U.S. on Greenland was essential.  Discussions will continue next Wednesday, the chair of the international trade committee, Bernd Lange, told POLITICO as he left the room. Political groups are divided over what to do in response to Trump’s threats to annex European territory. The Socialists and Democrats, of which Lange is a member, are leaning toward freezing the vote on the trade agreement. “One camp is more like, OK, let’s cooperate with the U.S. in order to get the maximum out, and there’s the other camp that says, OK we also need to show teeth and not give in on everything,” explained Green lawmaker Anna Cavazzini, who is also the chair of the internal market committee.  Cavazzini, who is in favor of freezing the deal, added that lawmakers agreed to delay the decision to “observe the global situation,” adding that the groups also need to agree on specific clauses in the final Parliament text.  The U.S. deal “will not be postponed,” assured EPP lawmaker Željana Zovko, telling POLITICO on Wednesday that any delay would hurt businesses as it would bring instability to transatlantic relations, while only Russia and China would benefit from it.  Under the deal struck in July, the EU committed itself to legislation lifting tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and lobsters, in exchange for Washington reducing tariffs on European cars. The deal is seen as lopsided in favor of Washington across party lines, but lawmakers were willing to put up with it in exchange for having Trump commit to protecting European security. As Greenland annexation threats continue, some no longer see the point of the deal. While the U.S. has upheld its end of the bargain on the car tariffs; the EU, so far, has not, because its institutions must still approve their positions on the Commission’s proposal. The lengthy process has already tested Washington’s patience, with Trade Representative Jamieson Greer telling POLITICO in December that the U.S. wouldn’t grant further tariff exemptions unless the EU keeps its end of the bargain. After the Council of the EU agreed on its position in late November, pressure is rising on the European Parliament to vote on its own stance.

Europe’s biggest ever trade deal finally got the nod Friday after 25 years of negotiating.  It took blood, sweat, tears and tortured discussions to get there, but EU countries at last backed the deal with the Mercosur bloc — paving the way to create a free trade area that covers more than 700 million people across Europe and Latin America.  The agreement, which awaits approval from the European Parliament, will eliminate more than 90 percent of tariffs on EU exports. European shoppers will be able to dine on grass-fed beef from the Argentinian pampas. Brazilian drivers will see import duties on German motors come down.  As for the accord’s economic impact, well, that pales in comparison with the epic battles over it: The European Commission estimates it will add €77.6 billion (or 0.05 percent) to the EU economy by 2040.  Like in any deal, there are winners and losers. POLITICO takes you through who is uncorking their Malbec, and who, on the other hand, is crying into the Bordeaux. WINNERS Giorgia Meloni Italy’s prime minister has done it again. Giorgia Meloni saw which way the political winds were blowing and skillfully extracted last-minute concessions for Italian farmers after threatening to throw her weight behind French opposition to the deal.  The end result? In exchange for its support, Rome was able to secure farm market safeguards and promises of fresh agriculture funding from the European Commission — wins that the government can trumpet in front of voters back home. It also means that Meloni has picked the winning side once more, coming off as the team player despite the last-minute holdup. All in all, yet another laurel in Rome’s crown.  The German car industry  Das Auto hasn’t had much reason to cheer of late, but Mercosur finally gives reason to celebrate. Germany’s famed automotive sector will have easier access to consumers in LatAm. Lower tariffs mean, all things being equal, more sales and a boost to the bottom line for companies like Volkswagen and BMW. There are a few catches. Tariffs, now at 35 percent, aren’t coming down all at once. At the behest of Brazil, which hosts an auto industry of its own, the removal of trade barriers will be staggered. Electric vehicles will be given preferential treatment, an area that Europe’s been lagging behind on.  Ursula von der Leyen Mercosur is a bittersweet triumph for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Since shaking hands on the deal with Mercosur leaders more than a year ago, her team has bent over backwards to accommodate the demands of the skeptics and build the all-important qualified majority that finally materialized Friday. Expect a victory lap next week, when the Berlaymont boss travels to Paraguay to sign the agreement. Giorgia Meloni saw which way the political winds were blowing and skillfully extracted last-minute concessions for Italian farmers after threatening to throw her weight behind French opposition to the deal. | Ettore Ferrari/EPA On the international stage, it also helps burnish Brussels’ standing at a time when the bloc looks like a lumbering dinosaur, consistently outmaneuvered by the U.S. and China. A large-scale trade deal shows that the rules-based international order that the EU so cherishes is still alive, even as the U.S. whisked away a South American leader in chains.  But the deal came at a very high cost. Von der Leyen had to promise EU farmers €45 billion in subsidies to win them over, backtracking on efforts to rein in agricultural support in the EU budget and invest more in innovation and growth.   Europe’s farmers  Speaking of farmers, going by the headlines you could be forgiven for thinking that Mercosur is an unmitigated disaster. Surely innumerable tons of South American produce sold at rock-bottom prices are about to drive the hard-working French or Polish plowman off his land, right?  The reality is a little bit more complicated. The deal comes with strict quotas for categories ranging from beef to poultry. In effect, Latin American farmers will be limited to exporting a couple of chicken breasts per European person per year. Meanwhile, the deal recognizes special protections for European producers for specialty products like Italian parmesan or French wine, who stand to benefit from the expanded market. So much for the agri-pocalpyse now.  Mercosur is a bittersweet triumph for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. | Olivier Matthys/EPA Then there’s the matter of the €45 billion of subsidies going into farmers’ pockets, and it’s hard not to conclude that — despite all the tractor protests and manure fights in downtown Brussels — the deal doesn’t smell too bad after all.  LOSERS Emmanuel Macron  There’s been no one high-ranking politician more steadfast in their opposition to the trade agreement than France’s President Emmanuel Macron who, under enormous domestic political pressure, has consistently opposed the deal. It’s no surprise then that France joined Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary to unsuccessfully vote against Mercosur.  The former investment banker might be a free-trading capitalist at heart, but he knows well that, domestically, the deal is seen as a knife in the back of long-suffering Gallic growers. Macron, who is burning through prime ministers at rates previously reserved for political basket cases like Italy, has had precious few wins recently. Torpedoing the free trade agreement, or at least delaying it further, would have been proof that the lame-duck French president still had some sway on the European stage.  Surely innumerable tons of South American produce sold at rock-bottom prices are about to drive the hard-working French or Polish plowman off his land, right? | Darek Delmanowicz/EPA Macron made a valiant attempt to rally the troops for a last-minute counterattack, and at one point it looked like he had a good chance to throw a wrench in the works after wooing Italy’s Meloni. That’s all come to nought. After this latest defeat, expect more lambasting of the French president in the national media, as Macron continues his slow-motion tumble down from the Olympian heights of the Élysée Palace.  Donald Trump Coming within days of the U.S. mission to snatch Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and put him on trial in New York, the Mercosur deal finally shows that Europe has no shortage of soft power to work constructively with like-minded partners — if it actually has the wit to make use of it smartly.  Any trade deal should be seen as a win-win proposition for both sides, and that is just not the way U.S. President Donald Trump and his art of the geopolitical shakedown works. It also has the incidental benefit of strengthening his adversaries — including Brazilian President and Mercosur head honcho Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — who showed extraordinary patience as he waited on the EU to get their act together (and nurtured a public bromance with Macron even as the trade talks were deadlocked). China  China has been expanding exports to Latin America, particularly Brazil, during the decades when the EU was negotiating the Mercosur trade deal. The EU-Mercosur deal is an opportunity for Europe to claw back some market share, especially in competitive sectors like automotive, machines and aviation. The deal also strengthens the EU’s hand on staying on top when it comes to direct investments, an area where European companies are still outshining their Chinese competitors. Emmanuel Macron made a valiant attempt to rally the troops for a last-minute counterattack, and at one point it looked like he had a good chance to throw a wrench in the works after wooing Italy’s Meloni. | Pool photo by Ludovic Marin/EPA More politically, China has somewhat succeeded in drawing countries like Brazil away from Western points of view, for instance via the BRICS grouping, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and other developing economies. Because the deal is not only about trade but also creates deeper political cooperation, Lula and his Mercosur counterparts become more closely linked to Europe. The Amazon rainforest  Unfortunately, for the world’s ecosystem, Mercosur means one thing: burn, baby, burn. The pastures that feed Brazil’s herds come at the expense of the nation’s once-sprawling, now-shrinking tropical rainforest. Put simply, more beef for Europe means less trees for the world. It’s not all bad news for the climate. The trade deal does include both mandatory safeguards against illegal deforestation, as well as a commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement for its signatories. 

LONDON — Choosing your Brexit camp was once the preserve of Britain’s Tories. Now Labour is joining in the fun.  Six years after Britain left the EU, a host of loose — and mostly overlapping — groupings in the U.K.’s ruling party are thinking about precisely how close to try to get to the bloc. They range from customs union enthusiasts to outright skeptics — with plenty of shades of grey in between. There’s a political urgency to all of this too: with Prime Minister Keir Starmer tanking in the polls, the Europhile streak among many Labour MPs and members means Brexit could become a key issue for anyone who would seek to replace him. “The more the screws and pressure have been on Keir around leadership, the more we’ve seen that play to the base,” said one Labour MP, granted anonymity like others quoted in this piece to speak frankly. Indeed, Starmer started the new year explicitly talking up closer alignment with the European Union’s single market. At face value, nothing has changed: Starmer’s comments reflect his existing policy of a “reset” with Brussels. His manifesto red lines on not rejoining the customs union or single market remain. Most of his MPs care more about aligning than how to get there. In short, this is not like the Tory wars of the late 2010s. Well, not yet. POLITICO sketches out Labour’s nascent Brexit tribes. THE CUSTOMS UNIONISTS  It all started with a Christmas walk. Health Secretary Wes Streeting told an interviewer he desires a “deeper trading relationship” with the EU — widely interpreted as hinting at joining a customs union. This had been a whispered topic in Labour circles for a while, discussed privately by figures including Starmer’s economic adviser Minouche Shafik. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said last month that rejoining a customs union is not “currently” government policy — which some took as a hint that the position could shift. But Streeting’s leadership ambitions (he denies plotting for the top job) and his willingness to describe Brexit as a problem gave his comments an elevated status among Labour Europhiles.  “This has really come from Wes’s leadership camp,” said one person who talks regularly to No. 10 Downing Street. Naomi Smith, CEO of the pro-EU pressure group Best for Britain, added any Labour leadership contest will be dominated by the Brexit question. MPs and members who would vote in a race “are even further ahead than the public average on all of those issues relating to Europe,” she argued. Joining a customs union would in theory allow smoother trade without returning to free movement of people. But Labour critics of a customs union policy — including Starmer himself — argue it is a non-starter because it would mean tearing up post-Brexit agreements with other countries such as India and the U.S. “It’s just absolutely nonsense,” said a second Labour MP.    Keir Starmer has argued that the customs union route would mean hard conversations with workers in the car industry after Britain secured a U.K.-U.S. tariff deal last summer. | Colin McPherson/Getty Images And since Streeting denies plotting and did not even mention a customs union by name, the identities of the players pushing for one are understandably murky beyond the 13 Labour MPs who backed a Liberal Democrat bill last month requiring the government to begin negotiations on joining a bespoke customs union with the EU. One senior Labour official said “hardly any” MPs back it, while a minister said there was no organized group, only a vague idea. “There are people who don’t really know what it is, but realize Brexit has been painful and the economy needs a stimulus,” they said. “And there are people who do know what this means and they effectively want to rejoin. For people who know about trade, this is an absolute non-starter.” Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said a full rejoining of the EU customs union would mean negotiating round a suite of “add-ons” — and no nations have secured this without also being in the EU single market. (Turkey has a customs union with the EU, but does not benefit from the EU’s wider trade agreements.) “I’m not convinced the customs union works without the single market,” Menon added.  Starmer has argued that the customs union route would mean hard conversations with workers in the car industry after Britain secured a U.K.-U.S. tariff deal last summer, a person with knowledge of his thinking said. “When you read anything from any economically literate commentator, the customs union is not their go-to,” added the senior Labour official quoted above. “Keir is really strong on it. He fully believes it isn’t a viable route in the national interest or economic interest.” THE SINGLE MARKETEERS (A.K.A. THE GOVERNMENT) Starmer and his allies, then, want to park the customs union and get closer to the single market.  Paymaster General Nick Thomas-Symonds has long led negotiations along these lines through Labour’s existing EU “reset.” He and Starmer recently discussed post-Brexit policy on a walk through the grounds of the PM’s country retreat, Chequers. Working on the detail with Thomas-Symonds is Michael Ellam, the former director of communications for ex-PM Gordon Brown, now a senior civil servant in the Cabinet Office. Ellam is “a really highly regarded, serious guy” and attends regular meetings with Brussels officials, said a second person who speaks regularly to No. 10.   A bill is due to be introduced to the U.K. parliament by summer which will allow “dynamic” alignment with new EU laws in areas of agreement. Two people with knowledge of his role said the bill will be steered through parliament by Cabinet Office Minister Chris Ward, Starmer’s former aide and close ally, who was by his side when Starmer was shadow Brexit secretary during the “Brexit wars” of the late 2010s. Starmer himself talked up this approach in a rare long-form interview this week with BBC host Laura Kuenssberg, saying: “We are better looking to the single market rather than the customs union for our further alignment.” While the PM’s allies insist he simply answered a question, some of his MPs spy a need to seize back the pro-EU narrative. The second person who talks regularly to No. 10 argued a “relatively small … factional leadership challenge group around Wes” is pushing ideas around a customs union, while Starmer wants to “not match that but bypass it, and say actually, we’re doing something more practical and potentially bigger.”  A third Labour MP was blunter about No. 10’s messaging: “They’re terrified and they’re worrying about an internal leadership challenge.” Starmer’s allies argue that their approach is pragmatic and recognizes what the EU will actually be willing to accept. Christabel Cooper, director of research at the pro-Labour think tank Labour Together — which plans polling and focus groups in the coming months to test public opinion on the issue — said: “We’ve talked to a few trade experts and economists, and actually the customs union is not all that helpful. To get a bigger bang for your buck, you do need to go down more of a single market alignment route.”  Stella Creasy argued that promising a Swiss-style deal in Labour’s next election manifesto (likely in 2029) would benefit the economy — far more than the “reset” currently on the table. | Nicola Tree/Getty Images Nick Harvey, CEO of the pro-EU pressure group European Movement UK, concurred: “The fact that they’re now talking about a fuller alignment towards the single market is very good news, and shows that to make progress economically and to make progress politically, they simply have to do this.”  But critics point out there are still big questions about what alignment will look like — or more importantly, what the EU will go for.  The bill will include areas such as food standards, animal welfare, pesticide use, the EU’s electricity market and carbon emissions trading, but talks on all of these remain ongoing. Negotiations to join the EU’s defense framework, SAFE, stalled over the costs to Britain. Menon said: “I just don’t see what [Starmer] is spelling out being practically possible. Even at the highest levels there has been, under the Labour Party, quite a degree of ignorance, I think, about how the EU works and what the EU wants.   “I’ve heard Labour MPs say, well, they’ve got a veterinary deal with New Zealand, so how hard can it be? And you want to say, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but New Zealand doesn’t have a land border with the EU.”  THE SWISS BANKERS Then there are Europhile MPs, peers and campaigners who back aligning with the single market — but going much further than Starmer.  For some this takes the form of a “Swiss-style” deal, which would allow single market access for some sectors without rejoining the customs union.   This would plough through Starmer’s red lines by reintroducing EU freedom of movement, along with substantial payments to Brussels.  But Stella Creasy, chair of the Labour Movement for Europe (LME), argued that promising a Swiss-style deal in Labour’s next election manifesto (likely in 2029) would benefit the economy — far more than the “reset” currently on the table. She said: “If you could get a Swiss-style deal and put it in the manifesto … that would be enough for businesses to invest.”  Creasy said LME has around 150 MPs as members and holds regular briefings for them. While few Labour MPs back a Swiss deal — and various colleagues see Creasy as an outlier — she said MPs and peers, including herself, plan to put forward amendments to the dynamic alignment bill when it goes through parliament.  Tom Baldwin, Starmer’s biographer and the former communications director of the People’s Vote campaign (which called for a second referendum on Brexit), also suggests Labour could go further in 2029. “Keir Starmer’s comments at the weekend about aligning with — and gaining access to — the single market open up a whole range of possibilities,” he said. “At the low end, this is a pragmatic choice by a PM who doesn’t want to be forced to choose between Europe and America.   “At the upper end, it suggests Labour may seek a second term mandate at the next election by which the U.K. would get very close to rejoining the single market. That would be worth a lot more in terms of economic growth and national prosperity than the customs union deal favoured by the Lib Dems.”  A third person who speaks regularly to No. 10 called it a “boil the frog strategy.” They added: “You get closer and closer and then maybe … you go into the election saying ‘we’ll try to negotiate something more single markety or customs uniony.’”  THE REJOINERS? Labour’s political enemies (and some of its supporters) argue this could all lead even further — to rejoining the EU one day. “Genuinely, I am not advocating rejoin now in any sense because it’s a 10-year process,” said Creasy, who is about as Europhile as they come in Labour. “Our European counterparts would say ‘hang on a minute, could you actually win a referendum, given [Reform UK Leader and Brexiteer Nigel] Farage is doing so well?’”  With Prime Minister Keir Starmer tanking in the polls, the Europhile streak among many Labour MPs and members means Brexit could become a key issue for anyone who would seek to replace him. | Tom Nicholson/Getty Images Simon Opher, an MP and member of the Mainstream Labour group closely aligned with Burnham, said rejoining was “probably for a future generation” as “the difficulty is, would they want us back?” But look into the soul of many Labour politicians, and they would love to still be in the bloc — even if they insist rejoining is not on the table now. Andy Burnham — the Greater Manchester mayor who has flirted with the leadership — remarked last year that he would like to rejoin the EU in his lifetime (he’s 56). London Mayor Sadiq Khan said “in the medium to long term, yes, of course, I would like to see us rejoining.” In the meantime Khan backs membership of the single market and customs union, which would still go far beyond No. 10’s red lines.  THE ISSUES-LED MPS Then there are the disparate — yet overlapping — groups of MPs whose views on Europe are guided by their politics, their constituencies or their professional interests. To Starmer’s left, backbench rebels including Richard Burgon and Dawn Butler backed the push toward a customs union by the opposition Lib Dems. The members of the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group frame their argument around fears Labour will lose voters to other progressive parties, namely the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP, if they fail to show adequate bonds with Europe. Some other, more centrist MPs fear similar. Labour MPs with a military background or in military-heavy seats also want the U.K. and EU to cooperate further. London MP Calvin Bailey, who spent more than two decades in the Royal Air Force, endorsed closer security relations between Britain and France through greater intelligence sharing and possibly permanent infrastructure. Alex Baker, whose Aldershot constituency is known as the home of the British Army, backed British involvement in a global Defense, Security and Resilience Bank, arguing it could be key to a U.K.-EU Defence and Security Pact. The government opted against joining such a scheme.   Parliamentarians keen for young people to bag more traveling rights were buoyed by a breakthrough on Erasmus+ membership for British students at the end of last year. More than 60 Labour MPs earlier signed a letter calling for a youth mobility scheme allowing 18 to 30-year-olds expanded travel opportunities on time limited visas. It was organized by Andrew Lewin, the Welywn Hatfield MP, and signatories included future Home Office Minister Mike Tapp (then a backbencher).  Labour also has an influential group of rural MPs, most elected in 2024, who are keen to boost cooperation and cut red tape for farmers. Rural MP Steve Witherden, on the party’s left, said: “Three quarters of Welsh food and drink exports go straight to the EU … regulatory alignment is a top priority for rural Labour MPs. Success here could point the way towards closer ties with Europe in other sectors.”  THE NOT-SO-SECRET EUROPHILES (A.K.A. ALL OF THE ABOVE) Many Labour figures argue that all of the above are actually just one mega-group — Labour MPs who want to be closer to Brussels, regardless of the mechanism. Menon agreed Labour camps are not formalized because most Labour MPs agree on working closely with Brussels. “I think it’s a mishmash,” he said. But he added: “I think these tribes will emerge or develop because there’s an intra-party fight looming, and Brexit is one of the issues people use to signal where they stand.” A fourth Labour MP agreed: “I didn’t think there was much of a distinction between the camps of people who want to get closer to the EU. The first I heard of that was over the weekend.”  The senior Labour official quoted above added: “I don’t think it cuts across tribes in such a clear way … a broader group of people just want us to move faster in terms of closeness into the EU, in terms of a whole load of things. I don’t think it fits neatly.” For years MPs were bound by a strategy of talking little about Brexit because it was so divisive with Labour’s voter base. That shifted over 2025. Labour advisers were buoyed by polls showing a rise in “Bregret” among some who voted for Brexit in 2016, as well as changing demographics (bluntly, young voters come of age while older voters die).  No. 10 aides also noted last summer that Farage, the leader of the right-wing populist party Reform UK, was making Brexit less central to his campaigning. Some aides (though others dispute this) credit individual advisers such as Tim Allan, No. 10’s director of communications, as helping a more openly EU-friendly media strategy into being. For all the talk of tribes and camps, Labour doesn’t have warring Brexit factions in the same way that the Tories did at the height of the EU divorce in the 2010s. | Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images THE BLUE LABOUR HOLDOUTS  Not everyone in Labour wants to hug Brussels tight.  A small but significant rump of Labour MPs, largely from the socially conservative Blue Labour tribe, is anxious that pursuing closer ties could be seen as a rejection of the Brexit referendum — and a betrayal of voters in Leave-backing seats who are looking to Reform. One of them, Liverpool MP Dan Carden, said the failure of both London and Brussels to strike a recent deal on defense funding, even amid threats from Russia, showed Brussels is not serious.   “Any Labour MP who thinks that the U.K. can get closer to the single market or the customs union without giving up freedoms and taking instruction from an EU that we’re not a part of is living in cloud cuckoo land,” he said. A similar skepticism of the EU’s authority is echoed by the Tony Blair Institute (TBI), led by one of the most pro-European prime ministers in Britain’s history. The TBI has been meeting politicians in Brussels and published a paper translated into French, German and Italian in a bid to shape the EU’s future from within.   Ryan Wain, the TBI’s senior director for policy and politics, argued: “We live in a G2 world where there are two superpowers, China and the U.S. By the middle of this century there will likely be three, with India. To me, it’s just abysmal that Europe isn’t mentioned in that at all. It has massive potential to adapt and reclaim its influence, but that opportunity needs to be unlocked.”  Such holdouts enjoy a strange alliance with left-wing Euroskeptics (“Lexiteers”), who believe the EU does not have the interests of workers at its heart. But few of these were ever in Labour and few remain; former Leader Jeremy Corbyn has long since been cast out. At the same time many Labour MPs in Leave-voting areas, who opposed efforts to stop Brexit in the late 2010s, now support closer alignment with Brussels to help their local car and chemical industries. As such, there are now 20 or fewer MPs holding their noses on closer alignment. Just three Labour MPs, including fellow Blue Labour supporter Jonathan Brash, voted against a bill supporting a customs union proposed by the centrist, pro-Europe Lib Dems last month.  WHERE WILL IT ALL END?  For all the talk of tribes and camps, Labour doesn’t have warring Brexit factions in the same way that the Tories did at the height of the EU divorce in the 2010s. Most MPs agree on closer alignment with the EU; the question is how they get there.  Even so, Menon has a warning from the last Brexit wars. Back in the late 2010s, Conservative MPs would jostle to set out their positions — workable or otherwise. The crowded field just made negotiations with Brussels harder. “We end up with absolutely batshit stupid positions when viewed from the EU,” said Menon, “because they’re being derived as a function of the need to position yourself in a British political party.” But few of these were ever in Labour and few remain; former Leader Jeremy Corbyn has long since been cast out. | Seiya Tanase/Getty Images The saving grace could be that most Labour MPs are united by a deeper gut feeling about the EU — one that, Baldwin argues, is reflected in Starmer himself. The PM’s biographer said: “At heart, Keir Starmer is an outward-looking internationalist whose pro-European beliefs are derived from what he calls the ‘blood-bond’ of 1945 and shared values, rather than the more transactional trade benefits of 1973,” when Britain joined the European Economic Community.  All that remains is to turn a “blood-bond” into hard policy. Simple, right?

BRUSSELS — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is determined to travel to South America next week to sign the EU’s long-delayed trade pact with the Mercosur bloc, but she’s having to make last-minute pledges to Europe’s farmers in order to board that flight. EU countries are set to make a pivotal decision on Friday on whether the contentious deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — which has been more than a quarter of a century in the making — will finally get over the line. It’s still not certain that von der Leyen can secure the majority she needs on Friday; everything boils down to whether Italy, the key swing voter, will support the accord. To secure Rome’s backing, von der Leyen on Tuesday rolled out some extra budget promises on farm funding. The target was clear: Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose refusal to back the Mercosur agreement forced von der Leyen to cancel her planned signing trip in December. At its heart, the Mercosur agreement is a drive by Europe’s big manufacturers to sell more cars, machinery and chemicals in Latin America, while the agri powerhouses of the southern hemisphere will secure greater access to sell food to Europe — a prospect that terrifies EU farmers. While Germany and Spain have long led the charge for a deal, France and Poland are dead-set against. That leaves Italy as the key member country poised to cast the deciding vote. Von der Leyen’s letter on Tuesday was carefully choreographed political theater. Writing to the EU Council presidency and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, she offered earlier access to up to €45 billion in agricultural funding under the bloc’s next long-term budget, while reaffirming €293.7 billion in farm spending after 2027. POLITICO was the first to report on Monday that the declaration was in the works. She insisted the measures in her letter would “provide the farmers and rural communities with an unprecedented level of support, in some respects even higher than in the current budget cycle.” The money isn’t new — it’s being brought forward from an existing pot in the EU’s next long-term budget — but governments can now lock it in for farmers early, before it is reassigned during later budget negotiations. Von der Leyen framed the move as offering stability and crisis readiness, giving Meloni a tangible win she can parade to her powerful farm lobby. WILL MELONI BACK MERCOSUR? The big question is whether Italy will view von der Leyen’s promises as going far enough ahead of the crunch meeting on Friday. Early signs suggested Rome might be softening. Meloni issued a statement saying the farm funding pledge was “a positive and significant step forward in the negotiations leading to the new EU budget,” but conspicuously avoided making a direct link to Mercosur. (French President Emmanuel Macron also welcomed von der Leyen’s letter, but there’s no prospect of Paris backing Mercosur on Friday.) taly’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose refusal to back the Mercosur agreement forced Ursula von der Leyen to cancel her planned signing trip in December. | Tom Nicholson/Getty Images Nicola Procaccini, a close Meloni ally in the European Parliament, told POLITICO: “We are moving in the right direction to enable Italy to sign Mercosur.” Right direction, but not yet at the destination? The government in Rome would not comment on whether it was about to back the deal. Germany, the EU’s industrial kingpin, is keen to secure a Mercosur agreement to boost its exports, but is still wary as to whether sufficient support exists to finalize an accord on Friday. A German official cautioned everything was still to play for. “A qualified majority is emerging, but it’s not a done deal yet. Until we have the result, there’s no reason to sit back and relax,” the official said. Optimism is growing regarding Rome in the pro-Mercosur camp, however. After all, the pact is widely viewed as strongly in the interests not only of Italy’s engineering companies, but also of its high-end wine and food producers, which are big exporters to South America. Additional curveballs are being thrown by Romania and Czechia, said one EU diplomat, who expressed concern they could turn against the deal on Friday, reducing any majority to very tight margins. The diplomat said they believed Italy would back the deal, however. FINAL STRETCH? The maneuvering is set to continue on Wednesday, when agriculture ministers descend on Brussels for what the Commission is billing as a “political meeting” after December’s farm protests. Officially, Mercosur isn’t on the agenda. Unofficially, however, it’s expected to be omnipresent — in the corridors, in the side meetings, and in the questions ministers choose not to answer. Farm ministers don’t approve trade deals, but the optics matter. Von der Leyen needs momentum — and cover — ahead of Friday’s vote. France — the country most hostile to the deal — will be vocal. On Wednesday, French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard is expected to open yet another offensive — this time for a lower trigger on emergency safeguards related to the deal. This would reopen a compromise already struck between EU governments, the Parliament and the Commission. It’s a familiar tactic: Keep pushing. “France is still not satisfied with the proposals made by the Commission,” a French agriculture ministry official told reporters on Tuesday, while acknowledging that there has been some improvement. “Paris’ strategy for this week is still to continue to look for a blocking minority.” “Italy has its own strategy, we have ours,” added the official, who was granted anonymity in line with the rules for French government briefings. France’s allies, notably Poland, are equally blunt. Agriculture Minister Stefan Krajewski said the priority was simply “to block this agreement.” If that failed, Warsaw would seek maximum safeguards and compensation. That means it’s all coming down to the wire on Friday. A second failure to dispatch von der Leyen to finalize the agreement would be deeply embarrassing, and would only stoke Berlin’s anger at other EU countries thwarting the deal. For now, it’s still unclear whether von der Leyen will board that plane. Bartosz Brzeziński reported from Brussels, Giorgio Leali reported from Paris, and Nette Nöstlinger reported from Berlin.

Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People’s Party, will not rule out further votes with far-right parties in the European Parliament. “What matters to me is that we do not have any structured collaboration with radical right parties in the European Parliament,” the German politician told the Funke Media Group. “But we will not allow ourselves to be stopped by anyone when it comes to halting illegal migration and securing our prosperity.” Weber’s remarks land amid an intensifying debate in Brussels over whether the long-standing cordon sanitaire around the far right is fraying in practice, even as mainstream parties continue to deny formal cooperation. That debate was triggered after the EPP broke with its traditional centrist partners and relied on far-right backing to push through rollbacks of EU green rules, including cuts to corporate sustainability and deforestation legislation, a moment far-right lawmakers openly described as a breakthrough. Far-right groups have since made clear they intend to cash in. Leaders from the Patriots and ECR groups said they are pressing for tougher migration policies, deregulation for industry and the reversal of the EU’s planned 2035 ban on combustion-engine cars, signaling that future votes would come at a political price. Centrist lawmakers, meanwhile, say they feel boxed in. Socialists, liberals and Greens accuse the EPP of leaning right when convenient, while insisting the old governing coalition still exists on paper — a dynamic one senior lawmaker described as an “abusive marriage.” Weber has rejected claims that the EPP is dismantling its refusal of cooperating with the far right. “The firewall stands. We know who our enemies are,” he said. He insisted that any organized cooperation would have to meet strict conditions, naming three red lines: being “pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law.” Far-right parties failing those tests, he said, could not be partners. Pressed on whether the EPP would actively seek far-right votes to overturn the phase-out of combustion-engine cars, Weber sought to redirect attention to the political center. His “invitation,” he said, was aimed at centrist forces, thanking Social Democrats for “very positive first signals.”

Anchal Vohra is a Brussels-based international affairs commentator. On a smog-filled day in New Delhi, I watched as a few German cars struggled to navigate a massive traffic jam. A British SUV was also in the mix, trailing not so far behind. Last year, these foreign cars accounted for only 0.1 percent of India’s imports, with Germans in the lead and the British coming in a near second. However, British businesses have gained an edge ever since the U.K. and India inked a free trade agreement earlier this year, with India finally lowering its protectionist guard. Once this deal fully comes into effect, overall bilateral business is expected to grow by more than 50 percent in about a decade-and-a-half, as New Delhi slashes its car tariffs from 100 percent to 10 percent, and its tariffs on scotch from 150 percent to 40 percent over a period of 10 years — all despite the cost to its domestic industries. It also gains particular advantage for its textile sector, which was hard hit by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50-percent tariff, removing tariffs on Indian textiles exported to the U.K. The EU, meanwhile, remains the single largest market in the world, with a much higher chance of growing its exports to a country packed with over 1.46 billion consumers. Yet, negotiations between New Delhi and Brussels are forever hitting roadblocks, even as negotiators shuttle between the two capitals to get a deal across the finish line — a deadline that’s now been postponed to Jan. 26. And as these talks continue, the bloc could stand to learn from the flexibility of its former member. According to an Indian official in New Delhi, granted anonymity in order to speak freely, the biggest barriers to an agreement are currently the EU’s insistence on greater market access in the politically sensitive agriculture sector, and its insistence on a carbon tax under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). On top of all this, the bloc’s protectionist tendencies — displayed by its higher tariffs on steel and its recent decision to curb rice imports from India — are also unexpected hurdles. In contrast to this rigidity, India’s concessions in its deal with the U.K. emerged from the flexibility it was granted in the agriculture sector, which was largely insulated from British products, the official said. “For all its faults, [the U.K.] understands India and Indians better.” Nearly half of Indians depend on agriculture for their livelihood, and farmers make up a strong voting bloc that holds strong political clout. Back in 2021, farmer protests even forced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to withdraw agricultural reforms and apologize. In fact, I have been told by former Indian officials and experts that the U.S. tariffs on India weren’t punishment for the country’s purchase of Russian oil, as Trump has claimed, but rather for its refusal to let U.S. food products flood the country. Nearly half of Indians depend on agriculture for their livelihood, and farmers make up a strong voting bloc that holds strong political clout. | Jagadeesh Nv/EPA “The interests of our farmers are top priority. India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, dairy farmers and fishermen,” Modi had said at the time. But these same differences now threaten the EU-India relationship before it even properly takes off. “The Europeans could learn from the British,” the Indian official noted. “They excluded dairy, chicken and apples from the deal,” he explained, listing products particularly important to India. “In exchange, we let them bring in salmon, cod and lamb.” He also alluded that India could consider dropping tariffs on cars and wine if the bloc kept out of agriculture: “In liquor, luxury cars and wine, there is always room, since that doesn’t affect our most vulnerable people.” Instead of any such changes,, however, India is now growing peeved by what it sees as last-minute pressure tactics by Brussels. Just this month, the EU decided to “limit rice imports from India” and other Asian countries to the benefit of domestic rice growers and millers. And the bloc’s unexpected decision to spike tariffs on steel imports outside its quota to up to 50 percent has rattled Indian negotiators. New Delhi was already opposed to the EU’s incoming carbon tax, believing it would make its steel exports uncompetitive. The Secretary of India’s Ministry of Steel Sandeep Poundrik described the European carbon tax as a bigger threat to Indian exports than Trump’s tariffs. On top of all this, the bloc’s protectionist tendencies — displayed by its higher tariffs on steel and its recent decision to curb rice imports from India — are also unexpected hurdles. | Piyal Adhikary/EPA Moreover, some experts like former trade negotiator for India Sangeeta Godbole argue the EU stands to gain more from an FTA whereas India stands to lose if the carbon tax provision isn’t reconsidered. “Nearly 80 percent of Indian exports to the EU even now face miniscule tariffs below 1 percent,” she noted recently, demanding India shield exports “from excessive environmental rules” the EU is trying to impose. To that end, the country has decried the bloc’s tax on carbon intensive imports via CBAM as a violation of the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) principle, which doesn’t hold developing countries equally responsible for climate change due to differences in historical contributions and the state of their economic development. And here, too, India argues, the understanding with the British could be emulated. Although it failed to gain an exemption on the U.K.’s version of the carbon tax, India has reserved the right to retaliate if the FTA’s benefits are negated by this tax. For its part, the EU claims the carbon tax is intended to encourage the use of clean energy in heavy polluting industries. And as Commissioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič said back in September: “We also need an understanding from the Indian side that we also have our constituency, we also have our audience” to consider — especially after the farmer protests over the recent deal with Mercosur nations. Meanwhile, the EU is also concerned about whether a deal with India might end up benefiting China. The bloc is desperately trying to reduce its dependence on Beijing in strategically important sectors and hoping India could replace it, but India itself is heavily reliant on China as well — for example, nearly half of the components in Indian semiconductors are imported from there. It also gains particular advantage for its textile sector, which was hard hit by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50-percent tariff, removing tariffs on Indian textiles exported to the U.K. | Divyakant Solanki/EPA However, speaking with a highly placed EU insider who was granted anonymity, I learned the bloc is now ready to make concessions, offering to jointly manufacture cars to encourage India to lower its tariffs, to leave out access to certain agricultural products, and to possibly even relent on garment duties. And last week, negotiators went through sector by sector once more, trying to get a better deal for their domestic industries, trying to keep the balance sheet even. The truth is, India — home to a large number of people living below the poverty line despite its rapid economic growth — needs an FTA with the single largest market to attract foreign investment. But the EU needs India too.

It was the crown jewel of a climate agenda that defined Ursula von der Leyen’s first term as Commission president. But a little over two years after it was enacted, the European Union’s 2035 ban on gasoline-powered cars is dead. Its killers: Germany, home of Europe’s largest car industry, and the center-right European People’s Party, the pro-business political family to which von der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz belong. It was their pressure that forced the Commission’s hand, after Berlin went from potentially abstaining on a vote to undercutting the entire combustion engine ban — all within three weeks.  Under the new proposal, the ban would be replaced by a target to reduce emissions by 90 percent in all cars sold after 2035. That means a range of vehicles will be part of the mix long past 2035, including pure combustion engines and plug-in hybrids that have both a combustion engine and an electric motor —  as long as they are offset with made-in-EU green steel and alternative fuels derived from non-fossil sources. Germany and the EPP argued the outright ban constrained the ability of European automakers to compete and took the freedom of choice away from consumers.  “Six months ago, it was unthinkable that the Commission would make this course correction,” an EU diplomat said, calling Germany’s “decisive intervention” a game changer in the fate of the law. “The ideology of pure electric is ending.”  After winning the majority of seats in the European Parliament in 2024, EPP chief Manfred Weber, also from Germany, said overturning the ban would be his top priority in the new era.  Weber claimed victory on Tuesday, calling the reformed legislation cutting the 2035 emissions target from 100 percent to 90 percent a “massive reduction.”   “We only can win the fight against climate change if we combine it with an economically reasonable approach. The combustion engine is allowed to be sold in the European Union after 2035,” he told a Tuesday press conference ahead of the announcement.  Cars account for 16 percent of EU emissions, making the ban an important — and certainly the most visible — pillar of the EU’s climate policy of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. By the Commission’s own calculations, dropping the emissions target to 90 percent means that 25 percent of the cars sold after 2035 would emit CO2, equivalent to roughly 2.6 million vehicles. The new targets are part of a broader automotive package put forward by the European Commission on Tuesday that included a new regulation mandating zero-emissions corporate fleet targets for each EU country, a battery booster to increase supply, and a regulatory red-tape cutting measure that introduces a new small-car initiative.  German Chancellor Merz, who also advocated reversing the ban in his bid for office, took a more measured tone, calling the revised ban “a clear signal” that it is the right way to “better align climate targets, market realities, companies and jobs.| Kay Nietfeld/Getty Images) The combined measures are meant to boost Europe’s automakers, which are facing a trade war courtesy of U.S. President Donald Trump, stiff competition from Chinese incumbents with high-tech electric vehicles, and stagnant sales across the bloc.  German Chancellor Merz, who also advocated reversing the ban in his bid for office, took a more measured tone, calling the revised ban “a clear signal” that it is the right way to “better align climate targets, market realities, companies and jobs.” For months Merz had tried to corral his governing coalition — which combines the conservative Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats — into a common position on the ban. While the CDU pushed hard for it to be overturned, the SPD wanted to hold the line. Ultimately the conservatives won, putting forward a request for regulation that walks a line between industrial competitiveness and protecting the climate. NO ONE’S HAPPY While the Commission calls it a balanced approach that still paves the way for electric vehicles to take over from CO2-emitting cars, political groups across the spectrum call it a disaster — albeit for different reasons.  The left says reversing the ban will deal a blow to the climate and yet fail to give Europe’s automakers a competitive boost.  “The real problem facing Europe’s car industry is not a law that takes effect in 10 years. It is the collapse of European car sales in China and the steady global decline of combustion-engine markets,” said German Greens MEP Michael Bloss. “Continuing to bet on combustion engines is not an industrial strategy — it is a failure of one.” For the far right, meanwhile, the measures don’t go far enough. MEP Volker Schnurrbusch, a member of Germany’s opposition AfD party, said in a debate in the Parliament that the real issue is the Commission “dictating” what form of transport consumers use. The European Conservatives and Reformists, meanwhile, called the reformed 2035 law a missed opportunity that “falls short of providing the bold actions” needed to make the sector more globally competitive. The differing views on the ban’s reversal will continue to be heard in negotiations among the EU’s institutions, particularly in the Council where EU capitals will battle it out with Cyprus — a small country with no automotive sector — acting as referee. Already, France is gearing up for a fight. “The negotiations are just beginning,” a Paris officials said, adding that allowing combustion engine cars to be sold past 2035 is a red line for the country, even as it gets its desired European preference requirements. Behind the scenes, the automotive sector will continue to lobby to undercut the regulation even more. “The announced measures to mandate the greening of corporate fleets risk running counter to the necessary market and incentive-based approach,” EU car lobby ACEA said in a statement.   Yet that is exactly what the Commission is hoping, with multiple industry officials telling POLITICO that the corporate fleets measure is meant to act as a backstop for the gutting of the combustion engine ban. Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra admitted as much in his remarks before the Parliament Tuesday evening.   “Corporate fleets will steer the clean transition and will help the automakers meet their targets,” he said. The proposal must now be debated by member countries and in the European Parliament.

The European Commission on Tuesday reversed its flagship ban on producing new combustion engine cars by 2035, even as it vowed to meet its ambitious climate targets. In a major win for industry, the current requirement for automakers to reduce tailpipe emissions from new vehicles by 100 percent by 2035 is now gone. The reformed legislative proposal, published Tuesday, will now call on companies to lower these emissions by 90 percent from 2021 levels. “This will allow for plug-in hybrids, range extenders, mild hybrids, and internal combustion engine vehicles to still play a role beyond 2035, in addition to full electric and hydrogen vehicles,” the Commission said in a press release unveiling its automotive package on Tuesday afternoon. The package, which includes a new regulation on greening corporate fleets, a battery initiative and regulatory simplification measures, marks a major victory for the automotive industry and the center right, which had campaigned ahead of the 2024 European election on overturning the ban. European People’s Party chief Manfred Weber was elated by the changes, telling media on Tuesday morning that the 90 percent target was “clearly an EPP request. We were amending this also when the legislation was first time discussed in the Parliament four years ago. So we are coming back to our original EPP positioning.” For its part, the Commission staunchly maintains the ban is still in place but with added flexibilities for European automakers struggling with a U.S.-led trade war, lackluster car sales and stiff competition from Chinese incumbents with their glitzy electric vehicles. ALL ABOUT AVERAGES The Commission is also watering down its target of a 50 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 by allowing automakers to calculate average emissions over three years (2030 to 2032). The change mirrors an amendment signed into law earlier this year that averaged the 2025 emissions target over three years after intense lobbying from the industry and their political allies. Both the 2025 and 2030 targets are part of the overarching 2035 law that banned new CO2-emitting vehicles, with the interim targets intended as goalposts to keep automakers on track. The EU executive is also altering the 2030 emissions-reduction target for light-commercial vehicles, such as delivery vans, lowering it from a 50 percent reduction to 40 percent of 2021 levels. CREATING DEMAND The measure for greening corporate fleets — vehicles owned or leased by companies for business purposes — sets targets for what proportion of each EU country’s fleet should be zero- or low-emission, based on their GDP. It is hoped the regulation will create a second-hand market for EVs to foster a “swifter transition away from older combustion engine” cars, and act as a demand mechanism to complement the 2035 law. While the targets are binding, the Commission says it is giving discretion to the capitals on how the targets should be achieved. It anticipates most will incorporate favorable tax policies for companies, pointing to Belgium as an example, which has boosted its share of EVs on the road through tax breaks. Under the proposal, plug-in hybrids, range extenders and combustion engine vehicles would all count toward the target but with the same caveats. Under the reform, all powertrains will be available as part of the 10 percent, but the Commission is mandating that automakers offset the emissions with made-in-EU green steel and alternative fuels. Small and mid-sized companies will be exempt from the law, a Commission official said in a media briefing Tuesday ahead of the Parliament presentation. SMALLER IS BETTER The automotive omnibus — a regulatory red-tape cutting scheme — focuses on a small-car initiative that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced during her September State of the Union address. A small EV will be defined as measuring 4 meters and 20 centimeters in length, the size of a compact car. The cars have their own regulatory category in the legislation and have been given specific concessions like subsidies and reserved parking spaces. Companies that produce small cars would also get a coefficient of 1.3 in the emissions target calculations, meaning that if a carmaker sold 10 small EVs they would get emissions credits worth 13 cars. But the initiative will only be in place until 2034, the EU executive said. As with corporate fleets, manufacturers will have to comply with local content requirements when manufacturing small EVs in order to get the emissions credits. France has long demanded that any flexibilities around the ban be tied to local content requirements — a request it put forward in October alongside Spain.

The European Commission is set to water down the EU’s 2035 de facto combustion engine ban by requiring automakers to lower their emissions by 90 percent instead of the original 100 percent, multiple officials with knowledge of the discussions told POLITICO. The change effectively marks the end of the ban, giving the center-right political parties and the automotive sector a massive win after months of heavy lobbying. Under the deal, which is still being negotiated at the time of publication, automakers can sell plug-in hybrids and range extenders after 2035. But those flexibilities will be tied to automakers “offsetting” the 10 percent extra emissions by using green steel and alternative fuels. How the offsets will work and what percentage of fuels or steel will need to be consumed in production is still being negotiated. The industry argues the law banning the new sale of CO2-emitting vehicles cuts them off at the knees and makes them less able to compete against Chinese incumbents that are ahead of them on electric vehicles.  Automakers are facing further headwinds courtesy of a trade war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump and sluggish sales at home. Climate advocates say the Commission needs to stay the course.  “The EU is playing for time when the next game has already started. Every euro diverted into plug-in hybrids is a euro not spent on EVs while China races further ahead,” said William Todts, executive director of green NGO Transport & Environment. The deal mirrors one announced by Manfred Weber, head of the European People’s Party, on Dec. 11. He told German media that the combustion engine ban had been overturned, with the 2035 target of 100 percent CO2 reduction cut to only 90 percent. The Financial Times was the first to report the 10 percent reduction. New details are emerging, however, about what powertrains will be allowed after 2035. In the current plan, range extenders — small combustion engines that give batteries more range — will count for a further emissions reduction than plug-in hybrids, which have both a combustion engine and an electric motor. Essentially, the scheme would give automakers more emission credits for range extenders than plug-in hybrids because they emit less CO2 than the hybrids, two officials said. The 2035 reform is part of a broader automotive package being put forward by the Commission on Tuesday that will include a new regulation on greening corporate fleets — vehicles owned or leased by companies for business purposes — and an automotive omnibus that was obtained by POLITICO. Essentially, the scheme would give automakers more emission credits for range extenders than plug-in hybrids because they emit less CO2 than the hybrids, two officials said. | Lorenzo Di Cola | Getty Images For the 2035 legislation, automakers will be allowed to pool, meaning that a brand that doesn’t meet the 90 percent target can buy credits from an automaker that over delivers. The pooling scheme is a lucrative business for all-electric manufacturers like Tesla. A separate initiative will focus on boosting small electric vehicles — a demand put forward by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her State of the Union address in September. Companies that produce the small cars would get a coefficient of 1.3 in the target calculations. So if a carmaker sold 10 of the small EVs, they would get the emissions credit of 13 cars. Manufacturers will have to comply with yet-to-be-defined local content requirements when creating the small EVs in order for the automaker to get the emission credit. France has long demanded that any flexibilities around the ban be tied to local content requirements — a request it put forward in October alongside Spain. The draft marks the first step in a long, politically fraught journey to becoming law. It will now go to Parliament and the EU capitals, where political groups remain divided over how far the Commission should go to rescue the automotive sector. The EPP has pushed hard to overturn the ban and the far right has campaigned on the issue, too, which could prompt yet another alliance between the two in Parliament to push to further weaken the law. EU capitals also have competing ideas. Spain wants the target to remain unchanged, while Germany is balking at France’s push for “Buy European” requirements, over fears it will spark a global trade war with the U.S. and China.