PARIS — Marine Le Pen conceded Tuesday that she may have unwittingly broken the law on the tense first day of an appeals trial that will determine whether she can stand in France’s presidential election next year. The surprising comments from the longtime face of the French far right signal a major shift in strategy as she attempts to get a French court to overturn a five-year ban on running for office after she, her party — the National Rally — and several other codefendants were found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds. The case has loomed large over Le Pen’s political future and its outcome will likely determine whether she or her protégé Jordan Bardella will represent the far-right party in the 2027 presidential race. Both are polling as front-runners in the contest. Le Pen had for months protested innocence and framed the case against her as politically motivated, but her comments and stoic behavior Tuesday differed markedly from the combative face she wore at the start of the initial trial in 2024. When the judge asked Le Pen why she was appealing, she insisted that any criminal act they may have committed had not been intentional — a departure from her impassioned claims of innocence throughout the initial trial. “I would like to say to the court right now that if a crime has been committed … so be it, but I want the court to know that we never felt like we had committed even the slightest offense,” she said. Le Pen dodged questions from reporters as she arrived and left court. She also declined to talk informally with the press during recesses, as became customary in the first trial. In a rare pre-trial statement, Le Pen told reporters Monday that her “only line of defense for this appeal will be the same as it was during the initial trial: telling the truth.” “The case will be reset and judged by new magistrates. I hope to be better heard and to convince them of my innocence,” she said.

PARIS — A court appeal begins on Tuesday that will determine whether Marine Le Pen or her protégé Jordan Bardella will head into next year’s presidential election as favorite from the far-right National Rally party. While Le Pen has been a decisive force in making the anti-immigration party the front-runner for the presidency in 2027, she is currently unable to succeed Emmanuel Macron herself thanks to a five-year election ban imposed over her conviction last year for embezzling European Parliament funds. She is now appealing that decision in a case that is expected to last one month, although a verdict is not due until the summer. Le Pen looks set to fight her appeal on technical legal objections and an argument that the ban is disproportionate, rather than going out all-guns blazing and insisting she is the victim of a political hit job. If she does overcome the very steep hurdles required to win her case, she will still have to deal with the political reality that the French electorate are leaning more toward Bardella. The party’s supposed Plan B is starting to have the air of a Plan A. A poll from Ipsos in December showed the 30-year-old overtaking Le Pen as the French politician with the highest share of positive opinions. And a survey from pollster Odoxa conducted in November showed Bardella would win both rounds of the presidential contest.  The National Rally continues to insist that Le Pen is their top choice, but getting her on the ballot will likely require her to win her fast-tracked appeal by setting aside her personal grievances and perhaps even showing a measure of uncustomary contrition to ensure this trial does not end the way the embezzlement case did.  Le Pen is not famous for being low-key and eating humble pie. Shortly after her conviction, she said her movement would follow the example of civil rights’ icon Martin Luther King and vowed: “We will never give in to this violation of democracy.” That’s not the playbook she intends to deploy now. Her lawyers will pursue a less politicized strategy to win round the judges, according to three far-right politicians with direct knowledge of the case, who were granted anonymity to discuss it freely.  “We’ll be heading in with a certain amount of humility, and we’ll try not to be in the mindset that this is a political trial,” said one of trio, a French elected official who is one of the codefendants appealing their conviction.  LINE BY LINE Le Pen and 24 other codefendants stood trial in late 2024 on charges they illicitly used funds from the European Parliament to pay party employees by having them hired as parliamentary assistants. But those assistants, the prosecution argued, rarely if ever worked on actual parliamentary business.  The National Rally’s apparent defense strategy back then was to paint the trial as politicized, potentially winning in the court of public opinion and living with the consequences of a guilty verdict.  The attorneys representing the defendants could did little to rebut several pieces of particularly damning evidence, including the fact that one assistant sent a message to Le Pen asking if he could be introduced to the MEP he had supposedly been working with for months.  Given how severely the defense miscalculated the first time around, lawyers for many of the 14 codefendants in court this week will pursue more traditional appeals, going through the preliminary ruling “line by line” to identify potential rebuttals or procedural hiccups, the trio with direct knowledge of the case explained.   A survey from pollster Odoxa conducted in November showed Bardella would win both rounds of the presidential contest.  | Telmo Pinto/NurPhoto via Getty Images Defense lawyers also plan to tailor their individual arguments more precisely to each client to avoid feeding the sentiment that decisions taken at the highest levels of the National Rally leadership are imposed on the whole party. The prosecution during the initial trial successfully argued that National Rally bigwigs hand-picked assistants at party headquarters to serve the leadership rather than MEPs.  Le Pen’s lawyers will also argue that her punishment — barring a front-running presidential candidate from standing in a nationwide election — was disproportionate to the crime for which she was convicted.  The appeals’ court ruling will have seismic consequences for French politics and Europe ahead of one of the continent’s most important elections. The path toward the presidency will be nearly impossible for Le Pen if her election ban is upheld. Le Pen has indicated in past interviews that she would throw in the towel if she received the same election ban, given that she wouldn’t have enough time to appeal again to a higher court.   Should Bardella replace her and win, the consequences for the French judicial system could be profound. One of the codefendants floated the possibility of a response along the lines of what U.S. President Donald Trump did to those who prosecuted him before his reelection.   “The lingering sense of injustice will remain and can eventually evolve into a quest for revenge,” the codefendant said.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. 2026 is here, and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world. And none of this shows signs of slowing down. In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K. Looking forward, the greatest existential risks for Europe will flow from the transatlantic relationship. For the bloc’s leaders, keeping the U.S. invested in the war in Ukraine was the key goal for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad-hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that has defined the last 12 months. However, if new threats emerge in this relationship — especially regarding Greenland — this balancing act may be impossible. The year also starts with no sign of any concessions from Russia when it comes to its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point U.S.-EU-Ukraine plan. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate to territorial demands. I believe Putin is wrong — that backed by Europe, Zelenskyy will continue to resist U.S. pressure on territorial concessions, and instead, increasingly target Russian energy production and exports in addition to resisting along the frontline. Of course, this means Russian aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase in kind. Nonetheless, Europe’s growing military spending, purchase of U.S. weapons, financing for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia — which also target sources of energy revenue — could help maintain last year’s status quo. But this is perhaps the best case scenario. Activists protest outside Downing street against the recent policies of Donald Trump. | Guy Smallman/Getty Images Meanwhile, European leaders will be forced to publicly ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, which was clearly spelled out in the new U.S. national security strategy, while privately doing all they can to counter any antiestablishment backlash at the polls. Specifically, the upcoming election in Hungary will be a bellwether for whether the MAGA movement can tip the balance for its ideological affiliates in Europe, as populist, euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently poised to lose for the first time in 15 years. Orbán, for his part, has been frantically campaigning to boost voter support, signaling that he and his inner circle actually view defeat as a possibility. His charismatic rival Péter Magyar, who shares his conservative-nationalist political origins but lacks any taint of corruption poses a real challenge, as does the country’s stagnating economy and rising prices. While traditional electoral strategies — financial giveaways, smear campaigns and war fearmongering — have so far proven ineffective for Orbán, a military spillover from Ukraine that directly affects Hungary could reignite voter fears and shift the dynamic. To top it all off, these challenges will be compounded by the E3’s weakness. The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has already been a decade in the making. But France, Germany and the U.K. each entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments besieged by the populist right and left, as well as a U.S. administration rooting for their collapse. While none face scheduled general elections, all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one leader — namely, Britain’s Keir Starmer — could fall because of an internal party revolt. The year’s pivotal event in the U.K. will be the midterm elections in May. As it stands, the Labour Party faces the humiliation of coming third in the Welsh parliament, failing to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish parliament and losing seats to both the Greens and ReformUK in English local elections. Labour MPs already expect a formal challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of surviving seem slight. France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget for the second consecutive year. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government will probably achieve a budget deal targeting a modest deficit reduction by late February or March. And with the presidential election only 16 months away and local elections due to be held in March, the opposition’s appetite for a snap parliamentary election has abated. However, this is the best he can hope for, as a splintered National Assembly will sustain a mood of slow-motion crisis until the 2027 race. Finally, while Germany’s economy looks like it will slightly recover this year, it still won’t overcome its structural malaise. Largely consumed by ideological divisions, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will struggle to implement far-reaching reforms. And with the five upcoming state elections expected to see increased vote shares for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, pressure on the government in Berlin will only mount A historic truth — one often forgotten in the quiet times — will reassert itself in 2026: that liberty, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always brittle. The holiday from history, provided by Pax Americana and exceptional post-World War II cooperation and integration, has officially come to an end. Moving forward, Europe’s relevance in the new global order will be defined by its response to Russia’s increased hybrid aggression, its influence on diplomacy regarding the Ukraine war and its ability to improve competitiveness, all while managing an increasingly ascendant far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the U.S. This is what will decide whether Europe can survive.

PARIS — France will delay this year’s Group of 7 summit to avoid a conflict with the mixed martial arts event planned at the White House on June 14, two officials with direct knowledge of G7 planning told POLITICO. Paris had previously announced that this year’s gathering of G7 leaders would take place from June 14 — which is both Flag Day in the U.S. and President Donald Trump’s 80th birthday — to June 16 in Evian-les-Bains on the shores of Lake Geneva. But Trump in October announced that the White House would host a “big UFC fight” on June 14. Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White told CBS News Thursday that the logistics of the event have been finalized. White said the event will gather up to 5,000 people on the South Lawn of the White House. The G7 will now run from June 15 to June 17. French President Emmanuel Macron’s office declined to confirm whether the change, which has now been made official on the G7’s website, is directly linked to the UFC event and said the new schedule is “the result of our consultations with G7 partners.” The U.S. Embassy in Paris did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment. The possibility that the G7 summit could be postponed because of Trump’s birthday was first reported by local media LeMessager.

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron criticized the Trump administration for defying the rules-based global order after toppling Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and renewing his threats to annex Greenland. “The United States is an established power that is gradually turning away from some of its allies and breaking free from the international rules that it used to promote,” Macron said during his annual foreign policy address. Macron used the speech to paint an image of predatory global powers seeking to divide the world into spheres of influence, with the U.S. dominating Western Hemisphere under the so-called Donroe Doctrine. “We are evolving in a world of great powers, where there’s a real temptation to carve up the world,” he said. “What has happened these last few months, and sometimes last few days, does not diminish this assessment.” The French president initially came under fire for his emollient reaction to Maduro’s ouster. He wrote online that the Venezuela “can only rejoice” with his departure, omitting to mention whether the method broke international law.  In his speech Thursday, Macron accused the U.S. of breaking rules on trade and “some elements of security.” The French president did not specifically mention Venezuela or Greenland, though both are top concerns for Paris, which is helping to craft a European response to Trump’s threats against the self-ruling Danish territory.

PARIS — French Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin refused on Thursday to rule out using a controversial constitutional maneuver to pass a state budget for the year, despite her boss’ vow not to do so. France entered 2026 without a proper state budget after talks in parliament broke down in December, and the new year has brought little assurance that the government can put together a package that would pass France’s hung parliament. Given the impasse, some lawmakers have called on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to employ the clause, Article 49.3 of the French constitution, to pass a proper state budget. De Montchalin was asked specifically about that possibility during an interview with radio station RTL, to which she replied: “I am not ruling out anything that could provide France with a budget.” Lawmakers last year voted to effectively roll over the 2025 budget into the new year to avoid a government shutdown, but that stopgap solution does nothing to bring down France’s massive budget deficit. Lecornu promised not to use the clause last year to ensure the immediate survival of his minority center-right government. But using the mechanism now would be risky, and not just because it might look like going back on his word. Employing it would dramatically raise the stakes of the debate, as lawmakers’ only remaining option to block the legislation would be to respond with a no confidence motion that, if successful, would leave France with neither a government nor a proper state budget. The center-left Socialist Party, a member of the opposition that has proven more willing to engage in talks than other parties, said it could refrain from backing a motion of no confidence even if the government were to use Article 49.3, provided the legislation forced through parliament included some of its policy requests.

French far-right chief Marine Le Pen was one of the few politicians to attend movie legend Brigitte Bardot’s funeral on Wednesday. Le Pen was spotted by French media arriving at a Catholic church in Saint-Tropez, southern France, where Bardot spent most of her later years before she died on Dec. 28. The politician described her attendance as a “private and amicable” gesture to express her “affection, gratitude, and admiration” for the former actress and singer, who died aged 91. Bardot rose to prominence as a star of French New Wave classics by cult filmmakers such as Jean-Luc Godard in the 1950s and 1960s. Politically, she began backing Le Pen during her first presidential run in 2012, and her fourth and final husband, Bernard d’Ormale, was a former adviser to Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie. While Bardot was widely known for her advocacy for animal rights, she also made headlines on several occasions for racist, Islamophobic and homophobic remarks — which earned her five separate criminal sentences for “incitement to hatred.” While conservative and far-right figures flooded social media with glorifying homages after Bardot died — one of Le Pen’s allies, Éric Ciotti, even called for a national tribute, though Bardot’s own family opposed the gesture — reactions on the left were more nuanced, or absent. French President Emmanuel Macron did not mention Bardot’s incendiary remarks in his eulogy — paying tribute instead to a “legend of the century.”

PARIS — A senior French judge warned Tuesday against “unacceptable” foreign interference after the U.S. reportedly considered sanctioning members of France’s judiciary. “If such facts were true or were to materialize, they would constitute unacceptable and intolerable interference in our country’s internal affairs,” Peimane Ghaleh-Marzban, president of the Paris court that handled a contentious case involving far-right chief Marine Le Pen, said in an inaugural speech to new magistrates, according to AFP. His comments come after German news outlet Der Spiegel reported that the U.S. State Department considered imposing sanctions on the judges who sentenced Le Pen to a five-year election ban last spring over embezzlement of EU funds, preventing her from running in the presidential election planned for 2027. Le Pen, who denies all charges, will face an appeal trial from next week, with a decision expected ahead of the summer. U.S. President Donald Trump had slammed the earlier verdict as “another example of European leftists using lawfare to silence free speech” and added “free Marine Le Pen” in a post on Truth Social. The Trump administration recently pledged to support “patriotic European parties” that seek to fight Europe’s “civilizational erasure” in its controversial National Security Strategy. The U.S. in recent months sanctioned 11 judges from the International Criminal Court, including a French magistrate who green-lighted an ICC arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes in Gaza. The U.S. Embassy in Paris did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

PARIS — Parisian voters will in March choose a new mayor for the first time in 12 years after incumbent Anne Hidalgo decided last year against running for reelection. Her successor will become one of France’s most recognizable politicians both at home and abroad, governing a city that, with more than 2 million people, is more populous than several EU countries. Jacques Chirac used it as a springboard to the presidency. The timing of the contest — a year before France’s next presidential election — raises the stakes still further. Though Paris is not a bellwether for national politics — the far-right National Rally, for example, is nowhere near as strong in the capital as elsewehere — what happens in the capital can still reverberate nationwide. Parisian politics and the city’s transformation attract nationwide attention in a country which is still highly centralized — and voters across the country observe the capital closely, be it with disdain or fascination. It’s also not a winner-take-all race. If a candidate’s list obtains more than 10 percent of the vote in the first round, they will advance to the runoff and be guaranteed representation on the city council. Here are the main candidates running to replace Hidalgo: ON THE LEFT EMMANUEL GRÉGOIRE Emmanuel Grégoire wants to become Paris’ third Socialist Party mayor in a row. He’s backed by the outgoing administration — but not the mayor herself, who has not forgiven the 48-year-old for having ditched his former job as her deputy to run for parliament last summer in a bid to boost his name recognition. HIS STRENGTHS: Grégoire is a consensual figure who has managed, for the first time ever, to get two key left-wing parties, the Greens and the Communists, to form a first-round alliance and not run their own candidates. That broad backing is expected to help him finish first in the opening round of voting. Emmanuel Grégoire. | Thomas Samson/AFP via Getty Images His falling-out with Hidalgo could also turn to his advantage given her unpopularity. Though Hidalgo will undoubtedly be remembered for her work turning Paris into a green, pedestrian-friendly “15 minute” city, recent polling shows Parisians are divided over her legacy. It’s a tough mission, but Grégoire could theoretically campaign on the outgoing administration’s most successful policies while simultaneously distancing himself from Hidalgo herself. ACHILLES’ HEEL: Grégoire can seem like a herbivorous fish in a shark tank. He hasn’t appeared as telegenic or media savvy as his rivals. Even his former boss Hidalgo accused him of being unable to take the heat in trying times, a key trait when applying for one of the most exposed jobs in French politics. Polling at: 32 percent Odds of winning: SOPHIA CHIKIROU Sophia Chikirou, a 46-year-old France Unbowed lawmaker representing a district in eastern Paris, hopes to outflank Grégoire from further to the left. HER STRENGTHS: A skilled political operative and communications expert, Chikirou is one of the brains behind left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s last two presidential runs, both of which ended with the hard left trouncing its mainstream rival — Grégoire’s Socialist Party. Sophia Chikirou. | Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images She’ll try to conjure up that magic again in the French capital, where she is likely to focus her campaign on socially mixed areas near the city’s outer boundaries that younger voters, working-class households and descendants of immigrants typically call home. France Unbowed often performs well with all those demographics. ACHILLES’ HEEL: Chikirou is a magnet for controversy. In 2023, the investigative news program Cash Investigation revealed Chikirou had used a homophobic slur to refer to employees she was feuding with during a brief stint as head of a left-wing media operation. She also remains under formal investigation over suspicions that she overbilled Mélenchon — who is also her romantic partner — during his 2017 presidential run for communications services. Her opponents on both the left and right have also criticized her for what they consider rose-tinted views of the Chinese regime. Chikirou has denied any wrongdoing in relation to the overbilling accusations. She has not commented on the homophobic slur attributed to her and seldom accepts interviews, but her allies have brushed it off as humor, or a private conversation. Polling at: 13 percent Odds of winning: ON THE RIGHT RACHIDA DATI Culture Minister Rachida Dati is mounting her third bid for the Paris mayorship. This looks to be her best shot. HER STRENGTHS: Dati is a household name in France after two decades in politics. Culture Minister Rachida Dati. | Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty Images She is best known for her combative persona and her feuds with the outgoing mayor as head of the local center-right opposition. She is the mayor of Paris’ 7th arrondissement (most districts in Paris have their own mayors, who handle neighborhood affairs and sit in the city council). It’s a well-off part of the capital along the Left Bank of the Seine that includes the Eiffel Tower. Since launching her campaign, Dati has tried to drum up support with social media clips similar to those that propelled Zohran Mamdani from an unknown assemblyman to mayor of New York. Hers have, unsurprisingly, a right-wing spin. She’s been seen ambushing migrants, illicit drug users and contraband sellers in grittier parts of Paris, racking up millions of views in the process. ACHILLES’ HEEL: Dati is a polarizing figure and tends to make enemies. Despite being a member of the conservative Les Républicains, Dati bagged a cabinet position in early 2024, braving the fury of her allies as she attempted to secure support from the presidential orbit for her mayoral run. But the largest party supporting President Emmanuel Macron, Renaissance, has instead chosen to back one of Dati’s center-right competitors. The party’s leader, Gabriel Attal, was prime minister when Dati was first appointed culture minister, and a clash between the two reportedly ended with Dati threatening to turn her boss’s dog into a kebab. (She later clarified that she meant it jokingly.) If she does win, she’ll be commuting from City Hall to the courthouse a few times a week in September, when she faces trial on corruption charges. Dati is accused of having taken funds from French automaker Renault to work as a consultant, while actually lobbying on behalf of the company thanks to her role as an MEP. Dati is being probed in other criminal affairs as well, including accusations that she failed to declare a massive jewelry collection. She has repeatedly professed her innocence in all of the cases. Polling at: 27 percent Odds of winning: PIERRE-YVES BOURNAZEL After dropping Dati, Renaissance decided to back a long-time Parisian center-right councilman: Pierre-Yves Bournazel. HIS STRENGTHS: Bournazel is a good fit for centrists and moderate conservatives who don’t have time for drama. He landed on the city council aged 31 in 2008, and — like Dati — has been dreaming of claiming the top job at city hall for over a decade. His low profile and exclusive focus on Parisian politics could also make it easier for voters from other political allegiances to consider backing him. Pierre-Yves Bournazel. | Bastien Ohier/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images ACHILLES’ HEEL: Bourna-who? The Ipsos poll cited in this story showed more than half of Parisians said they “did not know [Bournazel] at all.” Limited name recognition has led to doubts about his ability to win, even within his own camp. Although Bournazel earned support from Macron’s Renaissance party, several high-level Parisian party figures, such as Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad, have stuck with the conservative Dati instead. Macron himself appears unwilling to back his party’s choice, in part due to Bournazel being a member of Horizons, the party of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe — who turned full Brutus and publicly called on the president to step down last fall. “I don’t see myself putting up posters for someone whose party has asked the president to resign,” said one of Macron’s top aides, granted anonymity as is standard professional practice. Polling at: 14 percent Odds of winning: ON THE FAR RIGHT THIERRY MARIANI Thierry Mariani, one of the first members of the conservative Les Républicains to cross the Rubicon to the far right, will represent the far right National Rally in the race to lead Paris. Though the party of the Le Pen family is currently France’s most popular political movement, it has struggled in the French capital for decades. Thierry Mariani. | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images HIS STRENGTHS: The bar is low for Mariani, as his party currently holds no seats on the city council. Mariani should manage to rack up some votes among lower-income households in Parisian social housing complexes while also testing how palatable his party has become to wealthier voters before the next presidential race. ACHILLES’ HEEL: Mariani has links to authoritarian leaders that Parisians won’t like. In 2014, he was part of a small group of French politicians who visited then-President of Syria Bashar al-Assad. He has also met Russia’s Vladimir Putin and traveled to Crimea to serve as a so-called observer in elections and referendums held in the Ukrainian region annexed by Russia — trips that earned him a reprimand from the European Parliament. Polling at: 7 percent Odds of winning: SARAH KNAFO There’s another candidate looking to win over anti-migration voters in Paris: Sarah Knafo, the millennial MEP who led far-right pundit-turned-politician Éric Zemmour’s disappointing 2022 presidential campaign. Knafo has not yet confirmed her run but has said on several occasions that it is under consideration. HER STRENGTHS: Though Zemmour only racked up around 7 percent of the vote when running for president, he fared better than expected in some of Paris’ most privileged districts. The firebrand is best known for popularizing the “great replacement” conspiracy theory in France — that white populations are being deliberately replaced by non-white. She appeals to hardline libertarian conservatives whose position on immigration aligns with the far right but who are alienated by the National Rally’s protectionism and its support for the French welfare state. Sarah Knafo. | Bastien Ohier/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images Knafo, who combines calls for small government with a complete crackdown on immigration, could stand a chance of finishing ahead of the National Rally in Paris. That would then boost her profile ahead of a potential presidential bid. If she reaches the 10 percent threshold, she’d be able to earn her party seats on the city council and more sway in French politics at large. ACHILLES’ HEEL: Besides most of Paris not aligning with her politics? Knafo describes herself as being “at an equal distance” from the conservative Les Républicains and the far-right National Rally. That positioning risks squeezing her between the two. Polling at: 7 percent Odds of winning: EDITOR’S NOTE: Poll figures are taken from an Ipsos survey of 849 Parisians released on Dec. 12.

U.S. President Donald Trump wants to grow Europe’s right-wing populist movement but he might have a harder time than he expects winning over European voters. The MAGA leader is unpopular in Europe, even among the supporters of right-wing populist parties he sees as allies, according to the new POLITICO Poll in partnership with Public First, which surveyed more than 10,000 people across five countries earlier this month. His biggest fans are in Britain, where 50 percent of Reform-aligned respondents had favorable views of Trump. However, in France and Germany, only about a third of people who said they had supported right-wing parties reported seeing Trump in a favorable light.  The poll findings come after the Trump administration rolled out a new national security strategy aimed at cultivating the “growing influence of patriotic European parties,” which have drawn increasing support in France, Germany and the U.K., though they haven’t yet translated that into electoral wins.  The new POLITICO Poll data offers a potential warning to right-wing populist parties trying to attract broader support while also getting closer to Trump, as people who said they would support such parties in a new vote were more negative about Trump than those who supported them in the past across the U.K., France and Germany. The U.S. president is even more unpopular across the general population. In France and Germany, two-thirds of respondents held a negative opinion of him. In the U.K., 55 percent reported negative views; barely more than in the U.S., where 50 percent said they had negative views. Trump is least popular in Canada, where 72 percent of respondents held a negative opinion.  Supporters of the “patriotic” right-wing populist parties the U.S. administration name-checked in its security strategy are far more supportive of the U.S. president than others but, crucially, not even they delivered a ringing endorsement. In France, voters of the National Rally of French right-wing populist firebrand Marine Le Pen were broadly appreciative of her. But when it came to the U.S. president, more voters said they held a negative view (38 percent) than reported a positive one (30 percent). Alternative for Germany supporters overwhelmingly approved of party leader Alice Weidel, but were also divided over Trump, with 34 percent thinking well of him and 33 percent opposed. The findings underscore the challenge facing the National Rally, which isn’t just catering to its past voter base but also trying to win broader backing ahead of local elections next year and a key presidential election in 2027. The party of right-wing populist firebrands Le Pen and Jordan Bardella is the third political force but the largest single party in the National Assembly, and is currently polling well ahead of other parties. Its leaders were quick to dismiss White House efforts to support Europe’s right-wing forces. Bardella told The Telegraph that he rejected the “vassalage” of “a big brother like Trump,” and Thierry Mariani, a member of the party’s national board, told POLITICO that “Trump treats us like a colony — with his rhetoric, which isn’t a big deal, but especially economically and politically.” The exception was Britain, where 79 percent of Reform supporters reported holding favorable views of their leader Nigel Farage as Trump found a bare majority of favorable views.  AMERICA FIRST, FRIENDS SECOND? Across the U.K., France and Germany, right-wing populist supporters stood out because of their strong demand that political leaders put their own country first. Fifty percent of National Rally voters, 47 percent of AfD voters, and 45 percent of Reform UK voters singled it out as one of the most important attributes in political leaders.  Right-wing populist respondents overwhelmingly agreed that this is a quality Trump possesses over French President Emmanuel Macron (88 percent), German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (93 percent) and U.K. PM Keir Starmer (91 percent). And a clear majority said they want their leaders to try and get along with Trump.  Local right-wing populist movements have a “nationalist instinct” in common, according to Jules Walkden, research manager at Public First — but that might ultimately put them on a collision course with Trump’s MAGA movement favoring U.S. interests.   “Supporters of Europe’s right-wing parties clearly want to see their leaders put their own country first, and they may see Trump as a champion of this approach,” Walkden said. “But once elected, the practical demands of delivering on a ‘country first’ promise may quickly expose the limits of this alignment.” The POLITICO Poll data also suggests that right-wing populist supporters may admire Trump’s policies, but they don’t trust him. Right-wing populist voters in France and Germany were likelier than others to think that Trump’s policies benefit the U.S. but also likelier to say that they harm other countries while doing so. Again, Reform UK supporters were most open to Trump, with 42.8 percent saying everyone would benefit from Trump’s policies. Across Germany, France and the U.K., right-wing populist supporters were far likelier to agree that when a country’s interests clash with allies, the country should come first. They were also more likely to say that domestic industry should be protected, if need be to the detriment of its global competitiveness. Nearly 67 percent of Reform UK voters, 71 percent of National Rally voters, and 72 percent of AfD voters indicated this in the POLITICO Poll.  In spite of that, supporters of those parties tended to be more accepting of the tariffs the Trump administration has put on European industries.  Sixty-five percent of AfD voters said the tariffs were bad for Germany but just 37 percent thought Germany should slap tariffs on the U.S. in return — well below the overall 47 percent of German respondents who favored this. In Britain, just 45 percent of Reform UK voters considered the tariffs a bad thing and just 35 percent said that the country should match U.S. tariffs with its own tariffs on U.S. imports. But in a sign that right-wing populist supporters’ appreciation of Trump would only go so far, 60 percent of National Rally voters said Trump’s tariffs on imports from Europe were a bad thing for France’s economy. And while they were less likely than others in France to say that their government should match those tariffs, 48 percent still favored retaliation. This edition of The POLITICO Poll was conducted from Dec. 5 to Dec. 9, surveying 10,510 adults online, with at least 2,000 respondents each from the U.S., Canada, U.K., France and Germany. Results for each country were weighted to be representative on dimensions including age, gender and geography, and have an overall margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points for each country. Smaller subgroups have higher margins of error. The survey is an ongoing project from POLITICO and Public First, an independent polling company headquartered in London, to measure public opinion across a broad range of policy areas. You can find new surveys and analysis each month at politico.com/poll. Have questions or comments? Ideas for future surveys? Email us at poll@politico.com.