THE PUBLIC IS CLEARLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH JAILING PEACENIKS FOR TRYING TO STOP WEAPONS SUPPLIES TO A GENOCIDAL REGIME ~ Andy Meinke ~ Woolwich Crown Court is a grim place even if you’re not on trial. No history like the Old Bailey or even a duck pond like Snaresbrook. Just a concrete block on land reclaimed from the marshes, which you have to walk past two prisons to reach and is connected by a tunnel to a third, so those sentenced can’t be rescued from the Serco van by their terrorist accomplices. Small chance of that from the peace campaigners and human rights activists gathered outside yesterday — so all hopes rested with the jury. And Glory Hallelujah did they deliver! Despite being caught red handed with actual paint and on camera smashing up an arms factory with sledgehammers, the twelve good and true found all six activists not guilty of Aggravated Burglary, three not guilty of Violent Disorder, and were unable to reach a majority of at least 9 to 3 on three remaining charges of Violent Disorder, six of Criminal Damage and one of inflicting Grievous Bodily Harm with Intent.  Sadly we anticipate the Crown Prosecution Service, pushed by the Government, will put them all through a retrial. But five of the six have been granted bail, a decision rather forced on Mr Justice Johnson because they’ve served more time in jail than he could give them without ripping up the sentencing guidelines. Sam Corner remains inside as the offence under section 18 Offences Against the Person Act 1861 carries a maximum life sentence. Jury’s do not give reasons for their verdicts and are not allowed to reveal their deliberations. Nor is anyone allowed to carry out any form of research on actual jury decisions, so we cannot tell why they came to these conclusions. But we can guess pretty good, can’t we kids! With due respect to the forensic oratory of the team of barristers from Garden Court Chambers and thorough research by solicitors from Irvine Thavis Natas (ITN), the obvious truth is the great British public is clearly uncomfortable with jailing peaceniks for trying to stop weapons supplies to genocidal regimes. We shouldn’t get carried away, this is a London jury, I wouldn’t have fancied their chances in Canterbury or Stafford where other anti Elbit cases are due. But by making a spurious ‘terrorist connection’ the trial had to be held at the Bailey or Woolwich — and they didn’t choose Woolwich for the greater security. While we’re showing some objectivity: These defendants would still have got a jury trial under the current Levison/Lammie proposals to restrict peoples’ right to chose one. While not firmed up, the suggestion is that only cases with a prospective sentence of three years or more would entitle you to choose a Jury. Aggravated Burglary has a life maximum. In this case where it’s clearly ‘high harm’ and ‘high culpability’, the sentencing guidelines give a starting point of 10 years with a range of 9 to 13 after a contested trial. There are 18 people awaiting three further trials for the same incident, due between April and September. Their lawyers will be scrambling to Court to make bail applications in the aftermath of yesterdays’ verdicts (or failure to reach them). Trial 4 has a preliminary hearing on Friday. There are also the people awaiting trial for pouring paint in plane engines at RAF Brize Norton. Even those advocating resurgent British militarism may consider it cheaper to pay a sentry to guard the Nations’ hardware than to prosecute the scooter-born menace trying to graff it. To misquote Lloyd George, “A fully equipped Judge costs twice as much as a Dreadnought and is nearly as terrible”. It’s a lot to expect more miracles in quick succession, but in a year already filled with horrible shocks we can take hope that we may be seeing the start of a sea change in public opinion, not unlike that towards South Africa in the 1980’s, which will make the British state’s support for the overtly racist Israeli regime untenable. The post Filton acquittals: The start of a sea change appeared first on Freedom News.

COORDINATED ACTIONS FOLLOW ENDING OF PALESTINE ACTION PRISONERS’ HUNGER STRIKE ~ Scott Harris ~ Hundreds of activists yesterday (28 January) blockaded entrances to arms factories in Lancashire, Newcastle and Edinburgh, shutting down the sites from early in the morning. Workers at the sites were unable to gain access, some for an entire shift. The factories targeted were BAE Systems in Samlesbury, Leonardo in Edinburgh and Rafael in Newcastle. “Parts of being made in this factory that are used on the F-35 fighter jet, used in Gaza and beyond”, said a protester in Lancashire, “Doing this on a regular basis means supply and production is being severely affected”. Groups from across the UK joined, travelling hours at a time to support the blockades. Police used force against protestors in Lancashire, manhandling them off the entrances and violently moving people along. In Edinburgh, despite their best efforts, police could not break the blockade, and the factory was closed all day. “The genocide is ongoing, we just can’t let capitalism continue as normal”, said a participant, “Our government is specifically supporting the Israeli government, everybody that is out on the streets need to be proud of being on the right side of history”. The previous night in London, swarms of campaigners targeted a luxury dinner attended by a number of arms dealers leading to arrests of protesters. A focus on arms manufacturers has significantly increased as the last two years and a half have exposed the UK’s deep relationship with Israel, including their surveillance flights and monitoring that have been exposed by declassified.  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Top photo: Blockade of Leonardo in Edinburgh The post Activists disrupt arms factories, industry dinner appeared first on Freedom News.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music What a week! Tariff threats, Greenland brinkmanship and a dramatic Trump U-turn in Davos: EU leaders gathered in Brussels for an emergency summit meant to pick up the pieces of the shattered transatlantic relationship and figure out what to do next. In this episode of EU Confidential, we’re on the ground, right next to the European Council meeting as it unfolds. Unpacking how Europe can move forward after Trump escalated fast, reversed course even faster — and still left allies rattled. What did the EU learn? Did standing up work? And is Brussels finally rewriting its playbook for dealing with Washington? Joining host Sarah Wheaton are POLITICO’s own Zoya Sheftalovich, Nick Vinocur and Tim Ross to break it all down. We also dig into other issues looming over the summit: Trump’s Gaza “Board of Peace,” which has split European capitals; the sudden derailment of the Mercosur trade deal; and Ukraine’s abandoned hopes for a security deal.

Mario Monti is a former prime minister of Italy and EU commissioner. Sylvie Goulard is vice president of the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University and a former member of the European Parliament. In just the last few days, U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated his determination to take over Greenland, announced a 10 percent tariff on NATO allies who disagree with his will and threatened a 200 percent tariff on French wine because French President Emmanuel Macron refused a seat on his “Board of Peace” meant to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction. But for once, the EU isn’t chasing behind events. Indeed, the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) that the EU may use in response to Trump’s repeated threats over Greenland is ready. Introduced in 2023 with the support of all 27 member countries, the ACI — although nicknamed the “bazooka” — is a framework for negotiation in situations where a third country seeks to pressure the EU or a member country into a particular choice by applying — or threatening to apply — measures affecting trade or investment. It enables the EU to deter coercion and, if necessary, respond to it. Before any action is implemented, the EU will first engage in consultations with the coercing third country — in this case, the U.S. And at any rate, whatever steps the bloc may eventually introduce will be compatible with international law. So, nothing as abrupt, unpredictable and arbitrary as some decisions the current U.S. administration has taken in relation to Europe. It is unlikely that when crafting this instrument, EU legislators had such a variety of coercion cases in mind — or that they would come from the American president. It is worth noting, however, that Trump’s actions and threats meet all five of the conditions set out in the ACI to determine if economic coercion is taking place. And having for once been prescient in endowing itself with a policy instrument in line with the times, it would be irresponsible and cowardly if the EU were to give up just because the coercion at hand is heavy and, unexpectedly, comes from the most powerful third country in the world — whether friend or foe, only history will tell. In line with the ACI, the countermeasures the EU may decide to take after consultations could involve tariffs — including suspending the ratification of last July’s trade agreement — restrictions on trade in services and certain aspects of intellectual property rights, or restrictions on foreign direct investment and public procurement. In view of the potential impact of current U.S. financial policy, it would also make sense for the bloc’s financial institutions to review their resilience with respect to  developments that might intervene in the U.S. financial landscape as a result of current economic policies and the relaxation of supervisory rules. The fact of the matter is, if the EU sidesteps the ACI and genuflects, Trump will feel encouraged to be even more disrespectful toward Europe than he already is. | Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images The regulation has another interesting feature: It can create links between the EU and other countries affected by the same or similar coercion. The idea being that when a dominant power tends to follow the principle of divide et impera, it may be wise for its designated prey, both within and outside the EU, to seek a coordinated response. The fact of the matter is, if the EU sidesteps the ACI and genuflects, Trump will feel encouraged to be even more disrespectful toward Europe than he already is; the EU will lose all credibility as a moderate but forceful player in a world of autocrats; and European citizens will be even more disillusioned with European institutions unwilling to protect them and their dignity. It could also make them more likely to seek protection from nationalist parties and governments — those that may well be against triggering the ACI in the first place, devout as they are to Trump’s hostility toward the EU. Many in Europe are, indeed, adopting an attitude of subordinate acceptance when it comes to Trump’s wishes, either because of ideological affinities or because they feel more comfortable being close to those in power — as political theorist Etienne de La Boétie stated in the 16th century, servitude is generally based on the “voluntary” acceptance of domination. Then there are those who are ready to align with Trump invoking Realpolitik — a group that seems to have forgotten that 80 years of peace since World War II provide a clear reading of reality in which peace and prosperity are better safeguarded through cooperation than the use of force. History’s judgement on that is clear. Finally, there are also EU leaders who, when siding with the U.S. over European interests, are driven by the intention of preserving the West’s or NATO’s unity. But while this may be a laudable intention, they’re falling blind to the fact that, in the last year, most of the breaches of this unity have come from the American side. To be sure, much of Europe’s reluctance to engage with Trump in a less subordinate manner has a lot to do with the continent’s weakness in defense and security. The U.S. is right in asking Europe to bear a higher proportion of that burden, and Europe does need to step up its preparedness. But the readiness of many to accept virtually any demand, or coercion, because the U.S. may otherwise withdraw its security umbrella from Ukraine or EU countries is no longer convincing. Much is made of the NATO Treaty’s Article 5 providing a collective security guarantee. However, the credibility of this guarantee relies on shared values and mutual respect. And with Trump constantly displaying his adversarial and contemptuous feelings toward Europe — seemingly more aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin — how much can the continent really count on the U.S. umbrella in case of Russian intervention? What price should the EU be ready to pay, in terms of foregone sovereignty, to hold onto a guarantee that may no longer exist? Moreover, a Europe less acquiescent to Trump’s requests would be a strong signal to the many Americans who still believe in rule of law and the multilateral order. When Alexis de Tocqueville traveled to the U.S. in the 1830s to study the young democracy, he was impressed by the strength of its civil society and institutions — at the same time, he feared “the tyranny of the majority.” And one might wonder whether a system where the winner of an election can govern with no respect for the country’s institutions, violating the independence of its judicial system and central bank, is still a model of democracy. After World War II, the U.S. contributed generously to the relaunch of the European economy. It also massively influenced new democratic institutions in Germany and the nascent European Community. Maybe now it’s Europe’s turn to give something back and defend these values — and that means taking action. This is, after all, what the ACI was meant for.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday in a statement that he will join U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial Board of Peace, which is tasked with overseeing the ceasefire and reconstruction in Gaza. Netanyahu is the latest leader to confirm his participation in the body, which Trump formally established last week as part of his 20-point plan to end the war between Israel and Hamas. The board — described by Trump as “the Greatest and Most Prestigious Board ever assembled at any time, any place” — currently includes a motley mix of countries, among them the United Arab Emirates, Belarus, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Canada and Vietnam. Several other leaders have received invitations but have so far declined to commit or said they are still mulling their participation, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Some fear Trump could seek to create a shadow United Nations, which he has long lambasted as ineffective, as the board’s charter makes no direct reference to Gaza and gives it a broad mandate to resolve global conflicts. Trump for his part said Tuesday his board “might” replace the U.N. but added, “I believe you got to let the U.N. continue because the potential is so great.” French President Emmanuel Macron rejected the offer outright, with his office saying the board’s charter “goes beyond the framework of Gaza and raises serious questions” about whether it could undermine the U.N. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he is considering an invitation but criticized Trump’s decision to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin. “For me, it is very difficult to imagine how we and Russia would be together on a board,” Zelenskyy said. “And this isn’t about the ‘Board of Peace.’ It’s just that Russia is all about a ‘board of war.’ And Belarus as well.” Putin’s potential inclusion drew further backlash from Poland, where an aide to President Karol Nawrocki, a Trump ally, said the Kremlin was “at odds” with Warsaw. According to the Trump administration, countries seeking a permanent seat on the board must contribute at least $1 billion. Those that do not will be limited to a three-year term. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that while he would join, Ottawa would not cough up the membership fee. The board’s executive committee is set to include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and World Bank President Ajay Banga.

U.S. President Donald Trump invited Russian leader Vladimir Putin to join his “Board of Peace” to oversee next steps in Gaza, the Kremlin said Monday. “Indeed, President Putin also received an offer through diplomatic channels to join this Peace Council. We are currently studying all the details of this proposal,” Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a media briefing. “We hope for a contact with the American side so that we can clarify all the details,” he added. Trump announced the establishment of the board — which he touted as “the Greatest and Most Prestigious Board ever assembled at any time, any place” — on Friday as a key part of his 20-point plan to end the war between Israel and Hamas. The committee, chaired by Trump, will oversee the transitional governance of Gaza. The U.S. embassy in Brussels did not immediately respond to questions about the invitation. Putin, for his part, has spent the last four years waging a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has killed thousands of civilians, and demolished towns and cities. Invitations to join the board were also addressed to countries including Argentina, Egypt, India, and Turkey among others. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also received an invitation, as has Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Those who want a permanent membership beyond the three-year term will have to cough up $1 billion, Bloomberg first reported. Canada will join but won’t pay for the permanent seat, Carney said. So far, the leaders of Hungary, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam have accepted the invitation. “Hungary’s efforts for peace are being recognised. President Trump has invited Hungary to join the work of The Board of Peace as a founding member. We have, of course, accepted this honourable invitation,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said. The executive committee of the board will include, among others, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Ajay Banga, the head of the World Bank. 

EXCESSIVE POLICING OF PENTONVILLE DEMO IN SOLIDARITY WITH PALESTINE ACTION HUNGER STRIKERS ~ Blade Runner ~ The traditional anarchist New Year’s Eve gathering outside HMP Pentonville was joined on December 31, 2025 by a solidarity demonstration for remand prisoners currently on hunger strike, organised by Palestine Pulse alongside other grassroots groups. Hundreds of people assembled on Caledonian Road carrying Palestinian flags and banners, with the demonstration centred on solidarity with prisoners rather than disruption. Nevertheless, police responded with a large and visibly disproportionate deployment. Protesters counted at least 21 police vans in the immediate area, equating to roughly 170 officers. Many were deployed in boiler suits and carrying long batons, signalling a preparedness for confrontation rather than assembly facilitation. Despite the heavy police presence, passing drivers repeatedly sounded their horns in support of the demonstration. Officers attempted to confine protesters behind railings on a narrow stretch of pavement, but as numbers grew this quickly became untenable. Protesters spilled onto the road and began a spontaneous march around the prison block, entering Wheelwright Street. Police reinforcements arrived as officers moved to block surrounding streets, fragmenting movement and preventing the crowd from circulating freely. > The march was halted and forced back towards Caledonian Road. Further attempts > to move south were blocked by additional cordons, leaving protesters penned-in > on the carriageway. The aggressive policing approach generated predictable > friction, resulting in minor injuries and two arrests, both reportedly > released in the early hours of 1 January. Following the standoff, demonstrators regrouped and moved away from the prison under continued police pressure, later continuing through central London and dispersing at Piccadilly Circus. At the centre of the protests is a coordinated hunger strike involving eight remand prisoners held in multiple UK prisons, including Pentonville, Bronzefield, New Hall and Peterborough. All are being held without conviction for alleged offences linked to Palestine Action. Several prisoners are approaching 60 days without food, while two others previously paused their hunger strike following severe health deterioration after more than seven weeks. The hunger strikers’ demands include the closure of Elbit Systems’ UK sites and an end to prolonged pre-trial detention. Doctors, families and supporters have repeatedly warned of escalating health risks, with hospitalisations reported and serious concerns raised about irreversible damage. > Recent demonstrations outside Pentonville have already focused on solidarity > with one of the hunger strikers, Kamran, who is among the Filton 24 arrestees > and has been hospitalised for the fifth time after more than 50 days on hunger > strike. NYE demonstrations were also planned outside prisons in Brixton and > Peterborough this year. Since the proscription of Palestine Action earlier in 2025, the British state has increasingly relied on remand, isolation, and restrictive custodial regimes against those accused of involvement in the group. Supporters describe a pattern including censorship of books and correspondence, denial of prison work, transfers far from family networks, and repeated refusals of bail. > Taken together, activists view the policing of demonstrations and the > treatment of remand prisoners as part of a domestic counter-insurgency > strategy, in which overwhelming police presence, pre-emptive containment and > punitive detention function to send a broader warning to those considering > militant solidarity with Palestine. > In this context, the hunger strike has become a focal point, seen as exposing > how prisons and public order policing are being used to suppress dissent and > discipline political resistance. > > As the new year begins, the prisoners’ fast continues. > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Photos: Blade Runner The post Hundreds at New Year’s Eve London prison protest appeared first on Freedom News.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS? ANALYZING SIX GLOBAL SCENARIOS FOR 2026.  A series of inflection points await the world. Here’s our view of what might happen next year. By JAMIE DETTMER Illustration by Michael Waraksa for POLITICO Last year, POLITICO chose to be boosterish about the future as it outlined some not entirely tongue-in-cheek reasons for optimism about 2025. Some predictions were spot-on, though others less so: Donald Trump did manage to end (maybe) the war in Gaza, but peace in Ukraine is proving more elusive.   This P28 we’re taking a different tack by offering odds on some 2026 scenarios — from the political survival of both Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu to the chances of a financial crash and the likely winners of the mid-term elections in the United States.   Is the author prepared to bet his own salary on any of the episodes sketched below? Hell no! The most common mistake when it comes to gambling is to start in the first place. Just ask Harry Kakavas, one of Australia’s smartest real-estate salesmen, who made a fortune selling property on the Gold Coast only to lose tens of millions of dollars at the Baccarat tables.  But if you want to place some wagers, be my guest. There are plenty of online gambling sites that’ll be happy to take your money.   Here’s a caution though. Politics in this topsy-turvy era is even less predictable than sports. And even more so with the ever-unpredictable Donald Trump in the White House. After a whirlwind year at the start of his second term, here’s how we see things unfolding across the globe in 2026.   TRUMP PULLS OFF AN END TO THE WAR IN UKRAINE For all the talk of Western sanctions crashing the Russian economy and bringing the Kremlin to heel, Vladimir Putin seems unperturbed. Regardless of the carnage on the frontlines or Russians queueing for gas because of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, he has remained fixed on pressing his maximalist demands.   Meanwhile, there are domestic political limits on what Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy can agree to without triggering a public backlash.   Nonetheless, Trump often seems more inclined than not to think a deal might be possible. After his Alaska summit with Putin, Trump was heard on a hot mic explaining to France’s Emmanuel Macron that he thinks Putin really wants to “make a deal for me.” “I think he wants to make a deal with me. Do you understand that? As crazy as it sounds,” Trump added.   Of course, the stubbornness of the Russian leader has left Trump frustrated and occasionally musing about whether he’s being played — which is what Melania Trump reportedly thinks Putin is doing.  The Russian leader is adept at stringing Trump along — and his timing is impeccable when reaching out to his US counterpart. Take his two-hour-log phone call last month dangling the prospects of a summit just as Trump hinted he might give Ukraine Tomahawk Cruise missiles.   Arguably, prolonging the war is useful for Putin. It has the benefit of further straining cash-strapped European nations (see below), and risks fracturing the transatlantic alliance. A distracted West also helps Putin’s ally Xi Jinping as he calculates whether, or when, to make a move on Taiwan.  Arguably, prolonging the war is useful for Putin. | Sputnik And Putin’s regime could be imperiled if he ends the conflict abruptly. A rapid shift out of a war economy would likely trigger some dangerous sociopolitical infighting, according to Ella Paneyakh, a sociologist at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank. She says it would spark “cruel and vicious competition for diminishing resources.”  With Ukraine’s severe manpower shortage — Ukrainian units are able to deploy just a dozen troops per kilometer of front — there’s always the chance of a frontline breakthrough. In short, Putin may well calculate he can get more by persisting: more land, Western security guarantees so watered down they’re worthless and a cap on the size of a postwar Ukrainian army. That would handily set the stage for a later resumption of Russian revanchist hostilities.   The counter-argument? The Russian economy is struggling with high interest rates, labour shortages and soaring government borrowing costs. There’s alarm about the bad debt Russian banks are shouldering. The status quo may not be able to last forever. Likewise, though, Ukraine could be on the ropes this winter with Russia’s relentless targeting of the country’s energy infrastructure and the Europeans unable to bankroll Kyiv sufficiently.   Odds: 4/1 2026 IS THE YEAR THE BOND MARKET SAYS ENOUGH IS ENOUGH  Bill Clinton’s campaign guru James Carville once suggested it would be fun to be reincarnated as the bond market. “You can intimidate everybody,” he said.   Even Trump appears to appreciate he’s outranked by the real masters of the universe — the bond vigilantes, hedge and pension fund bosses and high financiers. In the spring he had to pause his signature policy of “reciprocal tariffs” when the bond market frowned.   The awesome collective power of the global investment giants and traders was demonstrated three years ago when they reacted adversely to the poorly sequenced tax-cutting mini-budget of Britain’s Liz Truss. Her premiership was the shortest-lived in British history; Truss’s brief 49 days in office broke the previous record of George Canning, who served for 119 days in 1827 — but he had the excuse of dying on the job.   How many other Western heads of governments might be ushered to the door next year by the bond market as they fail to reduce rising budget deficits?   How many other Western heads of governments might be ushered to the door next year by the bond market as they fail to reduce rising budget deficits? | Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images The parlous state of public finances — from Japan to Britain and the United States — has kept long-dated borrowing costs at near multi-year peaks this year. The fiscal challenges of high levels of government borrowing, slow growth and sluggish productivity are only mounting. And it is going to be an uphill battle to keep the bond markets reassured.   Demand for government bonds worldwide has cooled with institutional investors put off by the outlook for some major governments being able to maintain their finances, including the United States. “The economic reforms needed to really cover increasing debt are lacking, and the capital market sees that,” Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing said in September.   With its exploding public debt, France has been the canary in the mine with a succession of Emmanuel Macron-appointed prime ministers unable to muster parliamentary — or public — support for serious debt-reduction. Britain is closely following. Financial crisis and political crisis go hand-in-hand, reinforcing and fueling each other. For electoral reasons, governments are equally loath to hike taxes or cut spending, but something has got to give.   Odds: 5/1 NETANYAHU SURVIVES AGAIN They call him “the Magician” for a reason. When all has seemed lost in Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career, he has implausibly bounced back. “An obsessive, relentless fighter, failure is not a legitimate option for him,” noted one of his biographers, Ben Caspit.   The Israeli leader was first nicknamed “Bibi the Magician” in the 1990s, after beating Shimon Peres in elections held months after the assassination of then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Later, few believed he could pull off a win in 2015 given talk of criminal investigations and allegations of breach of trust and bribes. Still, Bibi pulled another rabbit out of his hat and secured reelection by courting the Israeli far right and religious nationalists — a tactic he repeated in 2019 to claw his way back.   The political obituarists were quick to declare him finished two years ago after Hamas rampaged through the kibbutzim of southern Israel. His government was widely blamed for a catastrophic failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attack, seen as the worst security lapse since the 1973 Yom Kippur war that ended the legendary Golda Meir’s career.  They call him “the Magician” for a reason. When all has seemed lost in Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career, he has implausibly bounced back. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Parliamentary elections have to be held by October next year. The smart money is on a vote being held sooner, likely Netanyahu’s preferred option. And despite Oct 7 and Netanyahu’s legal travails, he has slowly improved his political position. The rock-bottom poll ratings of his ruling Likud party started to lift after the military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon and they continued to rise with the humbling of Iran.   And Trump may have done Bibi a big favor by pushing him into accepting the Gaza peace plan and agreeing to a ceasefire. Netanyahu was able to use Trump as the excuse for halting the military campaign in Gaza, allowing him to overrule the religious nationalists and far-right partners in his rambunctious coalition who wanted the war to continue.  Netanyahu’s political opponents are drawing comfort from the fact that Likud appears to be running short of the 35 seats it secured in the last election. Opinion polls are showing his right-wing coalition would struggle to secure 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. But so too would the opposition bloc. And a poll last month for Zman Yisrael, a Hebrew-language media site, suggested Bibi was enjoying increased support in the wake of the ceasefire and hostage release deal. Likud appears on course to once again emerge as the largest party in the Knesset.  The best hope for Netanyahu’s opponents is to unite and offer Israelis a simple choice. That’s the strategy former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is pursing; he’s wooing Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of the Israeli Defense Forces, in a bid to shape the election as a head-to-head fight between himself and Bibi. Does Netanyahu have another card up his sleeve?  Odds 3/1 HUNGARY’S VIKTATOR WINS REELECTION Who would bet against Viktor Orbán leading his national conservative party, Fidesz, to another parliamentary victory?  The Viktator — a pun combining his first name and the Hungarian word for dictator — has been victorious in the past last three elections. The bête noire of Europe’s centrists and leftists, they will be determined to see him tripped up this time when Hungarians go to the polls in April, eager to be free of his EU obstructionism.   Who would bet against Viktor Orbán leading his national conservative party, Fidesz, to another parliamentary victory?  | Pierre Crom/Getty Images “The election isn’t going to be hermetically sealed off from the rest of Europe,” chuckles Frank Furedi, who heads the Brussels branch of the Hungarian government-backed college Mathias Corvinus Collegium. Furedi predicts Hungary will be the venue for a massive ideological brawl, further polarizing an already highly divided country.   Trump, MAGA influencers and Orbán’s allies in the Patriots for Europe group will be equally determined to see him remain as prime minister. They’re already drawing comfort, says Furedi, from the result in October of the Czech Republic’s parliamentary election, which saw right-wing populist Andrej Babiš’s ANO party secure a big win. The presidential election victory by a national conservative in Poland this year is also a source of confidence. But even Orbán loyalists don’t doubt this is going to be the toughest election he has faced in the past 15 years with incumbency proving a disadvantage.  And election campaigning is already underway. Péter Magyar, an MEP and former Fidesz insider, is Orbán’s main rival and hopes to capitalize on widespread public dissatisfaction with record inflation, economic woes and a series of political scandals. He’ll hope Orbán fatigue will kick in. His pro-Western and center-right party, Tisza, is running neck-and-neck with Fidesz in many polls, although some independent pollsters reckon Magyar is ahead.   But one in four Hungarians remain undecided. “A bit of trickery and a lot of campaigning” could shift the polls, according to political analyst Péter Krekó of the Budapest-based think tank Political Capital. “Tisza’s lead is not unchangeable.” Orbán is casting Magyar as a puppet of the EU and even a Ukrainian agent of influence who wants to push Hungary into war. He will hope his populist EU-baiting narratives, helped by a media controlled by his friends, shift the focus of the election toward the culture wars. It just may work, again.  Odds: 2/1 A SHADOW BANKING CRISIS ERUPTS And spare a worrying thought for the unregulated private credit market and the so-called shadow banks. The usually staid Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has already tolled the alarm bell.  In October, he warned of parallels with the 2008 financial crash, which was sparked by an American housing bubble fueled by easy credit and the issuance of risky subprime mortgages, with their subsequent bundling into opaque financial products that spread risk throughout the global financial system. Risk turned to contagion.  Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warned of parallels with the 2008 financial crash. | Oli Scarff/Getty Images Will the global financial system once again be brought to its knees? The private credit markets have become a major source of funding for businesses. That’s partly because traditional banks never regained their appetite for riskier lending after the 2008 crisis, and they have also been restrained because of greater regulatory scrutiny.   The hedge funds and private equity firms comprising the shadow banking sector now account for just under half of the world’s financial assets, worth around $250 trillion, according to the US Financial Stability Board.   The good news is that unlike traditional and investment banks they’re not using consumer cash deposits to invest in long-term, illiquid assets; they raise and borrow funds from investors, who in large part agree for their investment to be locked up for long periods. That reduces the short-term risks for the shadow banks — so in theory there shouldn’t be massive runs on them, like, say, what happened to Lehman Brothers in 2008.   But that’s in theory. If the private credit market is roiled, there’s bound to be an impact on other parts of the global financial system. And cash-strapped governments will be in no position to organize a bailout like in 2008, particularly at a time of even greater populist revolt. Furthermore, shadow banks have bet heavily on AI — and the AI boom might be a bubble ready to pop. It might soon be time to take cover.  Odds 3/1 DEMOCRATS VS. REPUBLICANS It will be a tall order for the Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives.   The incumbent president’s party invariably loses control of the House in the midterms — only twice since 1938 has that not been the case. “Both exceptions reflected unusual circumstances,” according to William A. Galston of the Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank.   It will be a tall order for the Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives.  | Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images In 2002, President George W. Bush’s Republicans surfed a rally-round-the-flag wave following the 9/11 attacks; and in 1998, Bill Clinton’s Democrats benefited from the unpopular effort by Republicans to impeach him.  Complicating the task for Democrats next year is a controversial redistricting scheme pushed by Trump in Texas and other states that should net Republicans additional seats, though some of that will be offset by Democrats redistricting in California. Nonetheless, with Republicans only enjoying a slim majority in the House, Democrats have to be odds-on favorites to win back control, especially if Trump’s net approval rating remains negative. In a reassuring sign for the party, Democrats scored big wins in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia in November.  The Senate is another matter. The GOP has a six-seat majority currently, and they’re playing on much safer turf. Although they will be defending 22 seats next year compared to the Democrats’ 13, most of their incumbents are considered secure. Only one Republican senator is running in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. Two Democratic incumbents will be running in states that Trump won last year.   All in all, Republicans in the Senate look to be in a much stronger position than their counterparts in the House. For Democrats to win the Senate would require a giant wave of anti-Trump fervor sweeping into even some of the most conservative states in the country. It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened.  Democrats seize the House: 2/1 odds; Republicans keep the Senate: 2/1 odds  

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Rixa Fürsen nutzt die ruhigen Stunden für ein Gespräch abseits des hektischen Tagesgeschäfts. Zu Gast ist Constantin Schreiber, Global Reporter bei Axel Springer und Nahost-Experte. Gemeinsam blicken sie auf ein Jahr zurück, das von Kriegen und Krisen geprägt war – von der Ukraine bis nach Israel. Ein Blick in die Welt: Schreiber berichtet von der rasanten Entwicklung in der arabischen Welt und der Stimmung in Israel nach dem 7. Oktober. Er analysiert, wie das Trauma der Geiselnahmen noch nicht verarbeitet ist und welche neuen Konfliktlinien sich in der israelischen Gesellschaft auftun. Und: Constantin Schreiber wünscht sich einen „Wahrheitstrank“ für Berlin und kritisiert leere Worthülsen und Stanzen. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. Legal Notice (Belgium) POLITICO SRL Forme sociale: Société à Responsabilité Limitée Siège social: Rue De La Loi 62, 1040 Bruxelles Numéro d’entreprise: 0526.900.436 RPM Bruxelles info@politico.eu www.politico.eu

ONE DAY THERE WILL BE A RECKONING — BUT IT WON’T BE A WHITE BOY WITH A WAND AND A SCAR ~ Kell w Farshéa ~ This is a government of death. A cabinet of death-eaters who put the needs of capital and state above our humanity, and reactionary ideas about race, gender, sexuality, and disability above our shared solidarity. Death eaters who even now would rather prop up the genocidal state of Israel than attend to 8 activists on hunger strike who are being denied medical treatment or a judgement of their peers. People who have not even had a trial for crimes invented to suit the needs of Western geopolitical imperialism. People who saw the complicity of this British state and capital and fought back at source to intervene on behalf of humanity. The death-eaters manufacture consent through media as diverse as the BBC and GB News, the Guardian or the Express. Rationing social media and parliamentary questions for silence. So whilst basic access to medicine or a fair trial is denied — there is a mighty absence of the inquiring investigative journalism that the British press pretends to care about. There they are — the death eaters: Starmer, Lammy, Reeves, Mahmood, Streeting, Cooper — presiding over a cabinet of death. They take life-saving medical care from trans children and young people whilst praying to their gods in the name of love. They deport asylum seekers whilst claiming the mantle of liberalism. They pander to fascism and flag shagging, dangling the possibilities of mass deportations in the name of British fairness and British decency. A very British form of fairness built on the backs of colonial and imperial asset-stripping of half the world, of the third passage, the enslavement of millions, the cotton and sugar plantations, the indentured labourers, the gerrymandering of tribes, polities, countries and whole regions — all for the benefit of British capital and British power. The death eaters in Parliament — Farage, Badenoch, Starmer etc, — sidle up to the kleptomaniac fascist in the White House. They flatter him with baubles, monarchal fantasies of the divine right of kings, back when dictators dressed up their crimes with God (but don’t mention Charles I). Meanwhile they cut benefits for the dis/abled, play cheap tricks to push more gig economy working class people into tax brackets they cant afford. They promise whole new towns but do nothing about 700,000 empty buildings in the UK. They promise to bulldoze nuclear power stations through planning committees but still keep the oil and gas flowing from the North Sea. They demonise people who survive the prison system whilst doing nothing to address why so many veterans, ex-criminals, and people with mental health conditions will be the ones freezing on our streets this Christmas And still they cannot speak of Gaza. Gaza flooded. Gaza freezing. Gaza starving. The fake ceasefire and the Gaza land grab. Children shot for walking over invisible lines. Instead, the death eaters make political capital out of antisemitic hate crimes and mass shootings to avoid talking about Gaza. They’re all so pleased with themselves. And then there’s us. Spending our wages and benefits to keep people alive in Gaza in a global act of international solidarity. Brave comrades: arrested, harassed, punched in the face, laying down in the streets, slandered, occupying buildings, smashing the windows of the ECHR and Elbit. Same tactics, same struggles. One day there will be a reckoning. It won’t be a white boy with a wand and a scar though. It will be the whole damn world, and we will want justice. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Photo: House of Commons on Flickr CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 The post Governed by Death-eaters appeared first on Freedom News.