Global central banks rallied behind Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, pushing back against a perceived political attack on the independence of the world’s most important financial institution. “We stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell,” the officials said in a joint statement. “The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve. It is therefore critical to preserve that independence, with full respect for the rule of law and democratic accountability.” The statement was signed by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on behalf of the ECB’s Governing Council, by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey as well as the heads of the Swiss, Swedish, Danish, Australian, Canadian, South Korean and Brazilian central banks. Pablo Hernández de Cos, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements and François Villeroy de Galhau, chair of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, also signed the statement. Over the weekend, Powell disclosed that the Fed had been served with grand jury subpoenas by the Department of Justice, raising the threat of a criminal indictment tied to his congressional testimony on the ongoing renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. In what amounted to a dramatic escalation in the standoff between the White House and the central bank, Powell used an unusually direct video message to argue that the legal action is politically motivated and part of a campaign of “intimidation,” designed to push the Fed into cutting interest rates more aggressively. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” Powell said in language rare in its starkness for a serving Fed chair. Trump, a longtime critic who has piled personal insults on Powell since his reelection both through ad hoc comments and through his social media feed, denied any role in the investigation. Speaking to NBC News on Sunday, Trump said he was unaware of the probe but added that Powell is “certainly not very good at the Fed, and he’s not very good at building buildings.” The joint statement on Tuesday took a different view. “Chair Powell has served with integrity, focused on his mandate and an unwavering commitment to the public interest,” it said. “To us, he is a respected colleague who is held in the highest regard by all who have worked with him.” Expressions of support for Powell from around the world had already begun on Monday, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel telling POLITICO that: “The independence of central banks is a prerequisite for price stability and a great public good. Against this background, the recent developments in the U.S. regarding the Fed chairman are cause for concern.” Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau, meanwhile, had told a  new year event at the ACPR regulator that Powell was “a model of integrity and commitment to the public interest.” POLITICO reported on Monday that the decision to subpoena the Fed had also raised concern among various White House officials, who are concerned that it may trigger volatility in financial markets and complicate efforts to keep the economy on track in an election year. Senior Republican Party lawmakers have also spoken out against the move.

LONDON — Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice has floated replacing the Office for Budget Responsibility with a rotating panel of experts to produce economic forecasts for the U.K. government.  In an interview with POLITICO, Tice attacked the OBR’s “woeful” forecasts and proposed replacing it with a revolving panel of the top economic forecasters in the country, who would produce their own estimates of the U.K.’s fiscal health. “What’s the point of them if you’re not going to do your job properly?” Tice said of Britain’s under-fire fiscal watchdog. “There is a turgid reluctance to accept the process of continuous improvement.” “If you didn’t have the OBR, what are you replacing [it with]? Well, maybe you could have a revolving panel of the top eight economic forecasters who have, twice a year, a mandate to produce their own estimate of the key six [to] eight metrics,” he added. His comments follow previous suggestions from Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage to abolish the body, but it has not yet been clear what the party would propose to take its place. As Reform continues to top U.K. opinion polls, the development of the party’s economic agenda has been closely watched by the financial sector and beyond. The OBR has come under attack for its forecasting record from both sides of the political aisle. It faced significant scrutiny in November after its economic and fiscal outlook, which contained detailed information on the contents of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget, was accidentally made accessible hours before she began her official announcement. OBR Chair Richard Hughes stepped down as a result of the leak. The OBR has also been criticized for its outsized influence on government spending, given that its forecasts can have a significant impact on which policies the Treasury decides to include in the budget. “The OBR is literally telling the government how to run its policy,” Tice said. “The government comes up with an idea, and it says to the OBR ‘what’s the consequence of this?’” “[The OBR] say this is our forecast, so the government says I can’t do that or I can do that, and then you find out that the OBR forecast was useless, not worth the paper it’s written on.” Tice joins former Prime Minister Liz Truss in his criticism of the independent body. Truss, who also called for the OBR to be abolished, shunned the watchdog’s provision of an independent economic forecast and analysis for her 2022 mini budget, leading to market turmoil. One of the Labour Party’s first acts upon reaching government in July 2024 was to put in place a “budget responsibility” bill to enable the OBR to produce of its own volition a forecast on major government tax or spending plans.

LONDON — Choosing your Brexit camp was once the preserve of Britain’s Tories. Now Labour is joining in the fun.  Six years after Britain left the EU, a host of loose — and mostly overlapping — groupings in the U.K.’s ruling party are thinking about precisely how close to try to get to the bloc. They range from customs union enthusiasts to outright skeptics — with plenty of shades of grey in between. There’s a political urgency to all of this too: with Prime Minister Keir Starmer tanking in the polls, the Europhile streak among many Labour MPs and members means Brexit could become a key issue for anyone who would seek to replace him. “The more the screws and pressure have been on Keir around leadership, the more we’ve seen that play to the base,” said one Labour MP, granted anonymity like others quoted in this piece to speak frankly. Indeed, Starmer started the new year explicitly talking up closer alignment with the European Union’s single market. At face value, nothing has changed: Starmer’s comments reflect his existing policy of a “reset” with Brussels. His manifesto red lines on not rejoining the customs union or single market remain. Most of his MPs care more about aligning than how to get there. In short, this is not like the Tory wars of the late 2010s. Well, not yet. POLITICO sketches out Labour’s nascent Brexit tribes. THE CUSTOMS UNIONISTS  It all started with a Christmas walk. Health Secretary Wes Streeting told an interviewer he desires a “deeper trading relationship” with the EU — widely interpreted as hinting at joining a customs union. This had been a whispered topic in Labour circles for a while, discussed privately by figures including Starmer’s economic adviser Minouche Shafik. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said last month that rejoining a customs union is not “currently” government policy — which some took as a hint that the position could shift. But Streeting’s leadership ambitions (he denies plotting for the top job) and his willingness to describe Brexit as a problem gave his comments an elevated status among Labour Europhiles.  “This has really come from Wes’s leadership camp,” said one person who talks regularly to No. 10 Downing Street. Naomi Smith, CEO of the pro-EU pressure group Best for Britain, added any Labour leadership contest will be dominated by the Brexit question. MPs and members who would vote in a race “are even further ahead than the public average on all of those issues relating to Europe,” she argued. Joining a customs union would in theory allow smoother trade without returning to free movement of people. But Labour critics of a customs union policy — including Starmer himself — argue it is a non-starter because it would mean tearing up post-Brexit agreements with other countries such as India and the U.S. “It’s just absolutely nonsense,” said a second Labour MP.    Keir Starmer has argued that the customs union route would mean hard conversations with workers in the car industry after Britain secured a U.K.-U.S. tariff deal last summer. | Colin McPherson/Getty Images And since Streeting denies plotting and did not even mention a customs union by name, the identities of the players pushing for one are understandably murky beyond the 13 Labour MPs who backed a Liberal Democrat bill last month requiring the government to begin negotiations on joining a bespoke customs union with the EU. One senior Labour official said “hardly any” MPs back it, while a minister said there was no organized group, only a vague idea. “There are people who don’t really know what it is, but realize Brexit has been painful and the economy needs a stimulus,” they said. “And there are people who do know what this means and they effectively want to rejoin. For people who know about trade, this is an absolute non-starter.” Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said a full rejoining of the EU customs union would mean negotiating round a suite of “add-ons” — and no nations have secured this without also being in the EU single market. (Turkey has a customs union with the EU, but does not benefit from the EU’s wider trade agreements.) “I’m not convinced the customs union works without the single market,” Menon added.  Starmer has argued that the customs union route would mean hard conversations with workers in the car industry after Britain secured a U.K.-U.S. tariff deal last summer, a person with knowledge of his thinking said. “When you read anything from any economically literate commentator, the customs union is not their go-to,” added the senior Labour official quoted above. “Keir is really strong on it. He fully believes it isn’t a viable route in the national interest or economic interest.” THE SINGLE MARKETEERS (A.K.A. THE GOVERNMENT) Starmer and his allies, then, want to park the customs union and get closer to the single market.  Paymaster General Nick Thomas-Symonds has long led negotiations along these lines through Labour’s existing EU “reset.” He and Starmer recently discussed post-Brexit policy on a walk through the grounds of the PM’s country retreat, Chequers. Working on the detail with Thomas-Symonds is Michael Ellam, the former director of communications for ex-PM Gordon Brown, now a senior civil servant in the Cabinet Office. Ellam is “a really highly regarded, serious guy” and attends regular meetings with Brussels officials, said a second person who speaks regularly to No. 10.   A bill is due to be introduced to the U.K. parliament by summer which will allow “dynamic” alignment with new EU laws in areas of agreement. Two people with knowledge of his role said the bill will be steered through parliament by Cabinet Office Minister Chris Ward, Starmer’s former aide and close ally, who was by his side when Starmer was shadow Brexit secretary during the “Brexit wars” of the late 2010s. Starmer himself talked up this approach in a rare long-form interview this week with BBC host Laura Kuenssberg, saying: “We are better looking to the single market rather than the customs union for our further alignment.” While the PM’s allies insist he simply answered a question, some of his MPs spy a need to seize back the pro-EU narrative. The second person who talks regularly to No. 10 argued a “relatively small … factional leadership challenge group around Wes” is pushing ideas around a customs union, while Starmer wants to “not match that but bypass it, and say actually, we’re doing something more practical and potentially bigger.”  A third Labour MP was blunter about No. 10’s messaging: “They’re terrified and they’re worrying about an internal leadership challenge.” Starmer’s allies argue that their approach is pragmatic and recognizes what the EU will actually be willing to accept. Christabel Cooper, director of research at the pro-Labour think tank Labour Together — which plans polling and focus groups in the coming months to test public opinion on the issue — said: “We’ve talked to a few trade experts and economists, and actually the customs union is not all that helpful. To get a bigger bang for your buck, you do need to go down more of a single market alignment route.”  Stella Creasy argued that promising a Swiss-style deal in Labour’s next election manifesto (likely in 2029) would benefit the economy — far more than the “reset” currently on the table. | Nicola Tree/Getty Images Nick Harvey, CEO of the pro-EU pressure group European Movement UK, concurred: “The fact that they’re now talking about a fuller alignment towards the single market is very good news, and shows that to make progress economically and to make progress politically, they simply have to do this.”  But critics point out there are still big questions about what alignment will look like — or more importantly, what the EU will go for.  The bill will include areas such as food standards, animal welfare, pesticide use, the EU’s electricity market and carbon emissions trading, but talks on all of these remain ongoing. Negotiations to join the EU’s defense framework, SAFE, stalled over the costs to Britain. Menon said: “I just don’t see what [Starmer] is spelling out being practically possible. Even at the highest levels there has been, under the Labour Party, quite a degree of ignorance, I think, about how the EU works and what the EU wants.   “I’ve heard Labour MPs say, well, they’ve got a veterinary deal with New Zealand, so how hard can it be? And you want to say, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but New Zealand doesn’t have a land border with the EU.”  THE SWISS BANKERS Then there are Europhile MPs, peers and campaigners who back aligning with the single market — but going much further than Starmer.  For some this takes the form of a “Swiss-style” deal, which would allow single market access for some sectors without rejoining the customs union.   This would plough through Starmer’s red lines by reintroducing EU freedom of movement, along with substantial payments to Brussels.  But Stella Creasy, chair of the Labour Movement for Europe (LME), argued that promising a Swiss-style deal in Labour’s next election manifesto (likely in 2029) would benefit the economy — far more than the “reset” currently on the table. She said: “If you could get a Swiss-style deal and put it in the manifesto … that would be enough for businesses to invest.”  Creasy said LME has around 150 MPs as members and holds regular briefings for them. While few Labour MPs back a Swiss deal — and various colleagues see Creasy as an outlier — she said MPs and peers, including herself, plan to put forward amendments to the dynamic alignment bill when it goes through parliament.  Tom Baldwin, Starmer’s biographer and the former communications director of the People’s Vote campaign (which called for a second referendum on Brexit), also suggests Labour could go further in 2029. “Keir Starmer’s comments at the weekend about aligning with — and gaining access to — the single market open up a whole range of possibilities,” he said. “At the low end, this is a pragmatic choice by a PM who doesn’t want to be forced to choose between Europe and America.   “At the upper end, it suggests Labour may seek a second term mandate at the next election by which the U.K. would get very close to rejoining the single market. That would be worth a lot more in terms of economic growth and national prosperity than the customs union deal favoured by the Lib Dems.”  A third person who speaks regularly to No. 10 called it a “boil the frog strategy.” They added: “You get closer and closer and then maybe … you go into the election saying ‘we’ll try to negotiate something more single markety or customs uniony.’”  THE REJOINERS? Labour’s political enemies (and some of its supporters) argue this could all lead even further — to rejoining the EU one day. “Genuinely, I am not advocating rejoin now in any sense because it’s a 10-year process,” said Creasy, who is about as Europhile as they come in Labour. “Our European counterparts would say ‘hang on a minute, could you actually win a referendum, given [Reform UK Leader and Brexiteer Nigel] Farage is doing so well?’”  With Prime Minister Keir Starmer tanking in the polls, the Europhile streak among many Labour MPs and members means Brexit could become a key issue for anyone who would seek to replace him. | Tom Nicholson/Getty Images Simon Opher, an MP and member of the Mainstream Labour group closely aligned with Burnham, said rejoining was “probably for a future generation” as “the difficulty is, would they want us back?” But look into the soul of many Labour politicians, and they would love to still be in the bloc — even if they insist rejoining is not on the table now. Andy Burnham — the Greater Manchester mayor who has flirted with the leadership — remarked last year that he would like to rejoin the EU in his lifetime (he’s 56). London Mayor Sadiq Khan said “in the medium to long term, yes, of course, I would like to see us rejoining.” In the meantime Khan backs membership of the single market and customs union, which would still go far beyond No. 10’s red lines.  THE ISSUES-LED MPS Then there are the disparate — yet overlapping — groups of MPs whose views on Europe are guided by their politics, their constituencies or their professional interests. To Starmer’s left, backbench rebels including Richard Burgon and Dawn Butler backed the push toward a customs union by the opposition Lib Dems. The members of the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group frame their argument around fears Labour will lose voters to other progressive parties, namely the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP, if they fail to show adequate bonds with Europe. Some other, more centrist MPs fear similar. Labour MPs with a military background or in military-heavy seats also want the U.K. and EU to cooperate further. London MP Calvin Bailey, who spent more than two decades in the Royal Air Force, endorsed closer security relations between Britain and France through greater intelligence sharing and possibly permanent infrastructure. Alex Baker, whose Aldershot constituency is known as the home of the British Army, backed British involvement in a global Defense, Security and Resilience Bank, arguing it could be key to a U.K.-EU Defence and Security Pact. The government opted against joining such a scheme.   Parliamentarians keen for young people to bag more traveling rights were buoyed by a breakthrough on Erasmus+ membership for British students at the end of last year. More than 60 Labour MPs earlier signed a letter calling for a youth mobility scheme allowing 18 to 30-year-olds expanded travel opportunities on time limited visas. It was organized by Andrew Lewin, the Welywn Hatfield MP, and signatories included future Home Office Minister Mike Tapp (then a backbencher).  Labour also has an influential group of rural MPs, most elected in 2024, who are keen to boost cooperation and cut red tape for farmers. Rural MP Steve Witherden, on the party’s left, said: “Three quarters of Welsh food and drink exports go straight to the EU … regulatory alignment is a top priority for rural Labour MPs. Success here could point the way towards closer ties with Europe in other sectors.”  THE NOT-SO-SECRET EUROPHILES (A.K.A. ALL OF THE ABOVE) Many Labour figures argue that all of the above are actually just one mega-group — Labour MPs who want to be closer to Brussels, regardless of the mechanism. Menon agreed Labour camps are not formalized because most Labour MPs agree on working closely with Brussels. “I think it’s a mishmash,” he said. But he added: “I think these tribes will emerge or develop because there’s an intra-party fight looming, and Brexit is one of the issues people use to signal where they stand.” A fourth Labour MP agreed: “I didn’t think there was much of a distinction between the camps of people who want to get closer to the EU. The first I heard of that was over the weekend.”  The senior Labour official quoted above added: “I don’t think it cuts across tribes in such a clear way … a broader group of people just want us to move faster in terms of closeness into the EU, in terms of a whole load of things. I don’t think it fits neatly.” For years MPs were bound by a strategy of talking little about Brexit because it was so divisive with Labour’s voter base. That shifted over 2025. Labour advisers were buoyed by polls showing a rise in “Bregret” among some who voted for Brexit in 2016, as well as changing demographics (bluntly, young voters come of age while older voters die).  No. 10 aides also noted last summer that Farage, the leader of the right-wing populist party Reform UK, was making Brexit less central to his campaigning. Some aides (though others dispute this) credit individual advisers such as Tim Allan, No. 10’s director of communications, as helping a more openly EU-friendly media strategy into being. For all the talk of tribes and camps, Labour doesn’t have warring Brexit factions in the same way that the Tories did at the height of the EU divorce in the 2010s. | Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images THE BLUE LABOUR HOLDOUTS  Not everyone in Labour wants to hug Brussels tight.  A small but significant rump of Labour MPs, largely from the socially conservative Blue Labour tribe, is anxious that pursuing closer ties could be seen as a rejection of the Brexit referendum — and a betrayal of voters in Leave-backing seats who are looking to Reform. One of them, Liverpool MP Dan Carden, said the failure of both London and Brussels to strike a recent deal on defense funding, even amid threats from Russia, showed Brussels is not serious.   “Any Labour MP who thinks that the U.K. can get closer to the single market or the customs union without giving up freedoms and taking instruction from an EU that we’re not a part of is living in cloud cuckoo land,” he said. A similar skepticism of the EU’s authority is echoed by the Tony Blair Institute (TBI), led by one of the most pro-European prime ministers in Britain’s history. The TBI has been meeting politicians in Brussels and published a paper translated into French, German and Italian in a bid to shape the EU’s future from within.   Ryan Wain, the TBI’s senior director for policy and politics, argued: “We live in a G2 world where there are two superpowers, China and the U.S. By the middle of this century there will likely be three, with India. To me, it’s just abysmal that Europe isn’t mentioned in that at all. It has massive potential to adapt and reclaim its influence, but that opportunity needs to be unlocked.”  Such holdouts enjoy a strange alliance with left-wing Euroskeptics (“Lexiteers”), who believe the EU does not have the interests of workers at its heart. But few of these were ever in Labour and few remain; former Leader Jeremy Corbyn has long since been cast out. At the same time many Labour MPs in Leave-voting areas, who opposed efforts to stop Brexit in the late 2010s, now support closer alignment with Brussels to help their local car and chemical industries. As such, there are now 20 or fewer MPs holding their noses on closer alignment. Just three Labour MPs, including fellow Blue Labour supporter Jonathan Brash, voted against a bill supporting a customs union proposed by the centrist, pro-Europe Lib Dems last month.  WHERE WILL IT ALL END?  For all the talk of tribes and camps, Labour doesn’t have warring Brexit factions in the same way that the Tories did at the height of the EU divorce in the 2010s. Most MPs agree on closer alignment with the EU; the question is how they get there.  Even so, Menon has a warning from the last Brexit wars. Back in the late 2010s, Conservative MPs would jostle to set out their positions — workable or otherwise. The crowded field just made negotiations with Brussels harder. “We end up with absolutely batshit stupid positions when viewed from the EU,” said Menon, “because they’re being derived as a function of the need to position yourself in a British political party.” But few of these were ever in Labour and few remain; former Leader Jeremy Corbyn has long since been cast out. | Seiya Tanase/Getty Images The saving grace could be that most Labour MPs are united by a deeper gut feeling about the EU — one that, Baldwin argues, is reflected in Starmer himself. The PM’s biographer said: “At heart, Keir Starmer is an outward-looking internationalist whose pro-European beliefs are derived from what he calls the ‘blood-bond’ of 1945 and shared values, rather than the more transactional trade benefits of 1973,” when Britain joined the European Economic Community.  All that remains is to turn a “blood-bond” into hard policy. Simple, right?

LONDON — The U.K. government has increased the threshold at which farmers and businesses pay inheritance tax following significant pushback. The Agricultural and Business Property Reliefs threshold — where 100 percent rate relief is capped — will be increased to £2.5 million when it is introduced from next April, which is a large hike from the original £1 million level proposed by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her 2024 autumn budget. Reeves’ original plan sparked intense backlash and protests from British farmers. 50 percent relief will apply to qualifying assets above that level, and spouses or civil partners will be able to pass on up to £5 million of agricultural and business assets tax-free, on top of existing nil‑rate bands, following the government U-turn.  The government said on Tuesday that it changed tack after listening to concerns from the farming community and businesses about the reforms. “We have listened closely to farmers across the country, and we are making changes today to protect more ordinary family farms,” said Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds.  The government estimates only 185 farming estates will now fall into scope, down from 375, and 1,100 estates overall will pay more inheritance tax in 2026-27, down from an initial figure of 2,000.

LONDON — Chancellor Rachel Reeves will make a statement responding to new assessments of the U.K.’s finances on March 3, the U.K. Treasury said on Monday. In a statement, the Treasury said it had asked the U.K.’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), to prepare an economic and fiscal forecast for that date. However, it said the forecast will “not make an assessment of the government’s performance against the fiscal mandate and will instead provide an interim update on the economy and public finances.” “This approach gives families and businesses the stability and certainty they need and supports the government’s growth mission,” it said. The Labour government has previously said it intends to only hold one “major fiscal event” per year. However, a worsening financial outlook forced the chancellor into announcing significant tax and spending changes at last year’s spring statement. At the most recent government-wide budget in November, Reeves increased taxes by a further £22 billion per year. She refused to rule out further tax increases in an interview last week.

LONDON — Frontrunner Varun Chandra has been dropped from the final list of three candidates to replace Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. Chandra, the favored pick of ministers and business-backers who wanted a “trade first” ambassador in D.C. to complete the U.K.’s tariff negotiations with the Trump administration will remain in Downing Street in an enhanced role – and continue with frequent visits to the U.S. Chandra, whom No. 10 Downing Street had ranked as a leading candidate as recently as this week, was superseded in the pecking order by Nigel Casey, the U.K. ambassador to Moscow and Christian Turner, Britain’s designated representative to the United Nations. A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office official familiar with the final shortlist process, and granted anonymity to speak freely, described a “massive fightback in the past days” to sway Prime Minister Keir Starmer towards a diplomat candidate and rule out Chandra. They put the shift in direction in No. 10 down to a mix of “assiduous lobbying” about both the risks of another political appointee and the importance of a pick with security and tough negotiating experience – as well as the advantages of lifting Foreign Office morale in the midst of job cuts. The key diplomatic post has been vacant since Mandelson, a long-serving Labour politician, resigned from the role amid fresh scrutiny of his friendship with late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Burning issues in the in-tray of the winner will including resolving a fresh dispute with the Trump administration over a flagship Tech Prosperity Deal the two sides landed on earlier this year — and which has been put on ice by Washington. No. 10 has tried to downplay the spat, saying it is all part of “complex” and “active” discussions with the U.S.

The U.K. government issued the sanctioned Russian oligarch, Roman Abramovich, a final warning to pay £2.5 billion to Ukraine or face court action. In a statement, British Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said a license had been issued to permit the £2.5 billion proceeds from Abramovich’s sale of Chelsea Football Club to be transferred to humanitarian causes in Ukraine. If he fails to comply, the government is prepared to take the matter to court, they said. The multi-billion-pound proceeds of Abramovich’s sale of Chelsea Football Club are frozen in a bank account, where they have been since 2022, when the government sanctioned Abramovich over his ties to Vladimir Putin. Chelsea was sold by Abramovich to an American consortium after the U.K.’s sanctions watchdog permitted the sale. Abramovich had to demonstrate he would not personally benefit from the transaction — but the proceeds have remained untouched in a bank due to uncertainty over how exactly they will be used to support Kyiv. Previously, Abramovich said he would use the funds to help “all victims of the war.” This had been interpreted as help for both Russians and Ukrainians. Today, the government said it would consider any proposal toward humanitarian causes in Ukraine, as long as the funds do not benefit Abramovich or other sanctioned individuals. It added that any future gains earned by the funds can be spent more broadly, on “victims of conflict worldwide.” Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the government is “prepared to enforce” the commitment for the funds to reach Ukraine, “so that every penny reaches those whose lives have been torn apart by Putin’s illegal war.” Seizing the assets from Abramovich has presented a legal minefield. He has never been charged with a crime related to his sanctioned assets, which means the British government needs Abramovich’s consent to use the money as it remains his property. In both the U.K. and the European Union, the profits on sanctioned assets have been used to guarantee loans for Ukraine. Recently, European allies have drawn up plans to use the assets themselves to guarantee loans for Ukraine, though they have yet to reach a deal on frozen assets worth around €210 billion. Ukraine faces a projected budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year.

The Bank of England is set to cut interest rates on Thursday, after lower-than-expected inflation figures and signs of a weakening jobs market. Headline inflation slowed to 3.2 percent in November, from 3.6 in October, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. That was the lowest since March and a much clearer drop than predicted by analysts, who had forecast a rate of 3.5 percent. “A cut tomorrow should be a no-brainer, with another to follow in February,” Peel Hunt chief economist Kallum Pickering said via social media, pointing to “No growth since summer, a labor market that is rapidly cooling, and a big downside surprise to inflation across the board in November.” The news comes only a day after labor market data from the ONS showed the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in over four years in October. The economy has struggled for growth in the second half of this year, after a sugar rush in the first quarter in which exporters rushed to get their goods to the U.S. before President Donald Trump could impose trade tariffs. The hangover from that — and the lingering uncertainty over the global economic outlook caused by Trump’s trade policy — has been severe. But at the same time, an unwelcome rise in inflation has stopped the Bank of England from cutting interest rates more quickly to support the economy. A raft of hikes in government- controlled prices such as energy bills and rail fares meant that inflation was rising for much of the year, leading it to peak at 3.8 percent in September. That was also partly due to companies passing on increases in labor costs due to a 6.7 percent hike in the National Living Wage and an increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions. Panmure Liberum chief economist Simon French said the wide range of goods and services now showing softening price trends showed that demand is now so weak that companies are having to absorb those price increases themselves instead. The government will be particularly relieved to have seen politically sensitive food prices, which have been a constant bugbear for the last couple of years, making the biggest contribution to the slowdown in inflation in November. Prices for clothing and footwear and for discretionary services such as restaurants and hotels also fell slightly. “As Christmas gifts go, this is a most welcome one,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell. “It’s the time of year when people put a few more things in their supermarket trolley, so news that food and alcohol inflation has fallen will be a boon for cash-strapped families.” The Bank has consistently said that inflation would fall once those factors passed out of the annual calculations, given that the underlying weakness of the economy. However, with the worst bout of inflation in half a century still fresh in everyone’s minds, it has been forced to keep the pace of policy easing “gradual and cautious”. Peel Hunt’s Pickering said that the scale of the slowdown could be enough to have some members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting for a half-point cut in the Bank Rate to 3.5 percent on Thursday. However, the consensus remains for a quarter-point cut to 3.75 percent. The pound still fell over half a cent against the dollar in response to the numbers, as traders penciled in more scope for easing next year, while the government’s borrowing costs in the bond market also fell.

Russia’s central bank on Friday filed a lawsuit in Moscow against Brussels-based Euroclear, which houses most of the frozen Russian assets that the EU wants to use to finance aid to Ukraine. The court filing comes just days before a high-stakes European Council summit, where EU leaders are expected to press Belgium to unlock billions of euros in Russian assets to underpin a major loan package for Kyiv.   “Due to the unlawful actions of the Euroclear depository that are causing losses to the Bank of Russia, and in light of mechanisms officially under consideration by the European Commission for the direct or indirect use of the Bank of Russia’s assets without its consent, the Bank of Russia is filing a claim in the Moscow Arbitration Court against the Euroclear depository to recover the losses incurred,” the central bank said in a statement. Belgium has opposed the use of sovereign Russian assets over concerns that the country may eventually be required to pay the money back to Moscow on its own. Some €185 billion in frozen Russian assets are under the stewardship of Euroclear, the Brussels-based financial depository, while another €25 billion is scattered across the EU in private bank accounts. With the future of the prospective loan still hanging in the air, EU ambassadors on Thursday handed emergency powers to the European Commission to keep Russian state assets permanently frozen. Such a solution would mean the assets remain blocked until the Kremlin pays post-war reparations to Ukraine, significantly reducing the possibility that pro-Russian countries like Hungary or Slovakia would hand back the frozen funds to Russia. While Russian courts have little power to force the handover of Euroclear’s euro or dollar assets held in Belgium, they do have the power to take retaliatory action against Euroclear balances held in Russian financial institutions. However, in 2024 the European Commission introduced a legal mechanism to compensate Euroclear for losses incurred in Russia due to its compliance with Western sanctions — effectively neutralizing the economic effects of Russia’s retaliation. Euroclear declined to comment.

BRUSSELS — The EU has struck a political agreement to overhaul the bloc’s foreign direct investment screening rules, the Council of the EU announced on Thursday, in a move to prevent strategic technology and critical infrastructure from falling into the hands of hostile powers. The updated rules — the first major plank of European Commission President’s Ursula von der Leyen’s economic security strategy — would require all EU countries to systematically monitor investments and further harmonize the way those are screened within the bloc. The agreement comes just over a week after Brussels unveiled a new economic security package. Under the new rules, EU countries would be required to screen investments in dual-use items and military equipment; technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and semiconductors; raw materials; energy, transport and digital infrastructure; and election infrastructure, such as voting systems and databases. As previously reported by POLITICO, foreign entities investing into specific financial services must also be subject to screening by EU capitals. “We achieved a balanced and proportionate framework, focused on the most sensitive technologies and infrastructures, respectful of national prerogatives and efficient for authorities and businesses alike,” said Morten Bødskov, Denmark’s minister for industry, business and financial affairs. It took three round of political talks between the three institutions to seal the update, which was a key priority for the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU. One contentious question was which technologies and sectors should be subject to mandatory screening. Another was how capitals and the European Commission should coordinate — and who gets the final say — when a deal raises red flags. Despite a request from the European Parliament, the Commission will not get the authority to arbitrate disputes between EU countries on specific investment cases. Screening decisions will remain firmly in the purview of national governments. “We’re making progress. The result of our negotiations clearly strengthens the EU’s security while also making life easier for investors by harmonising the Member States’ screening mechanism,” said the lead lawmaker on the file, French S&D Raphaël Glucksmann. “Yet more remains to be done to ensure that investments bring real added value to the EU, so that our market does not become a playground for foreign companies exploiting our dependence on their technology. The Commission has committed to take an initiative; it must now act quickly,” he said in a statement to POLITICO. This story has been updated.