BERLIN — One of Hungary’s most outspoken critics in Brussels has filed a criminal complaint against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán following a failed attempt to hack his email account using spyware in the run-up to the European Parliament elections. German Green MEP Daniel Freund and German NGO the Society for Civil Rights named “Viktor Orbán and unknown” in the complaint, which was seen by POLITICO, and requested that the state prosecutor in the western German city of Krefeld and cyber crime authorities launch an investigation. “There are indications that the Hungarian secret service is behind the attack,” Freund and the NGO said in a joint statement on Wednesday. The complaint gives details about an email that someone claiming to be a Ukrainian student sent to Freund’s parliamentary email address at the end of May 2024. The message asked the MEP to write a short message in which he would share his “beliefs concerning the accession of Ukraine to the European Union,” as well as a link. Freund did not click on the link. The complaint said that Parliament warned Freund that the link contained spyware likely made by the Israeli company Candiru, which was blacklisted by the U.S. government in 2021 for human rights violations. “According to the EU Parliament’s IT experts, the Hungarian government could be behind the eavesdropping on me,” Freund said in a statement. “This comes as no surprise: Orbán despises democracy and the rule of law. If the suspicion is confirmed, it would be an outrageous attack on the European Parliament.” Freund and the NGO asked prosecutors to open an investigation to clarify “the facts of the case” through investigative measures including the questioning of witnesses and conducting an independent forensic analysis. The Hungarian government had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication. If a device is infected with spyware, attackers can access all stored data and communications. They can also activate the camera and microphone to listen in on conversations. Freund has been one of the key players to have successfully advocated for EU funds for Hungary to be frozen. He also led a push to suspend Hungary’s presidency of the Council of the EU last year.

Leaked audio exposed Donald Tusk, when he was European Council president, commenting on his party’s candidate list ahead of Poland’s 2019 parliamentary election — despite his EU role requiring political neutrality. In a recording of a private call, Tusk expressed support for certain candidates and sided with a politician who complained that party leaders had blocked his Senate bid. The recording was published by media outlets affiliated with the opposition nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which argue it shows Tusk was actively involved in domestic politics at the time. PiS ran Poland at the time of the recording. Tusk resigned as Poland’s prime minister in 2014 to become European Council president, but returned to the Civic Coalition party in 2021 and became prime minister again in 2023. Tusk’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment. The European Council didn’t respond to requests for comment. Civic Coalition politicians allege, however, that the leaked conversation was recorded illegally by the previous government. TACTICAL COMPLAINTS Right-wing broadcaster TV Republika published a recording of a 2019 phone conversation between Roman Giertych — Tusk’s former lawyer and now a Civic Coalition lawmaker — and Tusk himself. Giertych complained that the then-leader of Civic Coalition, Grzegorz Schetyna, was blocking his Senate bid by offering him to run in hard-to-win districts. Tusk sympathized, saying that it was a mistake not to let Giertych run in Warsaw.  Giertych also blamed Schetyna for Civic Coalition’s parliamentary campaign going “in the wrong direction” and said he would become the “face of defeat.” Tusk replied that he “would not forget that.” Civic Coalition lost the 2019 parliamentary election, and Schetyna did not run for reelection for party leadership in 2020.  In the same phone call, Giertych also said he had suggested that the party promote Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, to which Tusk responded that it was a very good idea. Kidawa-Błońska ended up being the party’s candidate for prime minister in the 2019 election.  FURIOUS RESPONSE Giertych alleges the conversation was recorded “as part of an illegal operation” through Israel’s Pegasus spyware, which the previous government allegedly used to spy on political opponents.  “The recording of conversations between a lawyer and his clients, the failure to destroy them, the removal of copies of the conversations from the [Central Anti-Corruption Bureau], their transfer to the media, and the publication of these conversations are very serious crimes,” Giertych wrote on X. “Those guilty of all these crimes will be punished.” The current Civic Coalition-led coalition government has launched a probe into whether PiS officials misused Pegasus software to spy on their political opponents. Tusk has not commented on the recordings as of Tuesday afternoon.

Europe has the freest media in the world according to Reporters Without Borders’ annual press freedom ranking — though Southern and Eastern Europe are lagging behind the rest of the continent and the world overall is struggling. The RSF World Press Freedom Index released its yearly report and map on Friday, and it’s particularly good news for journalists in the Nordics and Baltics. The top 15 countries were all in Europe, with Norway scoring the highest, followed by Estonia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. Norway frequently tops press freedom rankings, with robust legal protections and a thriving media market. France (25) and Italy (49) both dropped several places compared to 2024, while the United Kingdom (20) improved slightly and Poland (31) leaped more than a dozen spots. Greece recorded the worst result in the European Union for the fourth year in a row, coming in at 89. The main reasons for its lackluster score include wiretapping of journalists by intelligence agencies using Predator spyware, government interference, intimidatory lawsuits and inadequate legal guardrails. Its Balkan neighbors also fared poorly, with Croatia (60), Bosnia (86), Serbia (96) and Kosovo (99) all among the worst in Europe.   For the first time since the index’s inception in 2002, the average score out of 100 fell below 55, with journalism conditions classified as “difficult” or “very serious” in more than half of all countries assessed. RSF cited economic instability and media concentration as factors contributing to a worsening press freedom climate. In the Middle East, dozens of reporters have been killed during Israel’s military assault in Gaza, the organization said. Iran, Syria, China, North Korea and Eritrea were ranked the five worst countries in the world to be a journalist, with non-existent press freedom. The United States fell two places to 57. President Donald Trump’s administration is bringing about a “troubling deterioration” through funding cuts to public media and foreign aid, RSF added.

KYIV — Ukrainian intelligence services announced a stunning discovery Wednesday morning: The head of Kyiv’s antiterrorist center was working as a Russian mole. Vasyl Malyuk, chief of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), personally arrested the man — who has not been publicly named — claiming he had been acting for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) for cash and ideological reasons. The SBU infiltrated all of the alleged mole’s digital devices, with a round-the-clock wiretap to catch him leaking top-secret government information to Moscow. “We practically had to live together with him. That’s how we managed to document him passing information to the Russians,” Malyuk said in a statement sent to POLITICO. “Now he faces high treason charges.” If found guilty by a court, the man — who had been working as head of the SBU’s anti-terrorist center headquarters since 2016 — faces life in prison. The FSB recruited him in 2018, according to the SBU. He was a so-called sleeping agent until December 2024, when Russia renewed contact with him while he already was under surveillance, the SBU said in a statement Wednesday. The SBU said his handlers were former Ukrainian officials, involved in cracking down on the pro-Western Euromaidan revolution of 2013-14, who fled to Moscow after the protests. “We continue to self-clean our ranks. And this process will continue,” said Malyuk, who added that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was kept in the loop on the countersurveillance operation.

WARSAW — Former Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro dodged police for hours Friday and stymied a parliamentary commission investigating alleged misuse of Pegasus spyware. Ziobro finally handed himself over at the headquarters of TV Republika, a sympathetic broadcaster, after launching a televised attack against the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The police then led him in front of the commission, which considered Ziobro’s tardiness an unjustified absence and sought a court order for a 30-day detention. The commission closed the hearing without Ziobro’s testimony. At TV Republika, Ziobro spoke of “political theatrics” while police officers waited in the lobby, where Ziobro eventually descended to turn himself in. “Violence and breaking the law are the standards of the Tusk government,” Ziobro told viewers of TV Republika. Ziobro is the key figure in a probe seeking to find out why and how the government of Law and Justice (PiS) — which was in power in Poland between 2015 and 2023 — allegedly purchased Pegasus spyware to use against political opponents. The spyware purchase is part of a wider scandal, the Tusk government says, involving alleged misuse of the justice fund — a special pool of money under the justice minister’s control. Though meant to help crime victims, prosecutors say the fund was misused for political purposes. According to the government, more than 112 million złoty (€26 million) was improperly taken from the fund. Ziobro did not show up to the commission’s previous hearings — apparently due to cancer treatment he was undergoing — so it sought a court order to have him escorted to the hearing on Friday. PiS considers the Pegasus commission “illegal” following a ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal issued in September last year. Likewise, Ziobro — a member of PiS — called the court order to escort him to the hearing illegal. The Tusk coalition, which ousted PiS from power after an October election, has ignored the Constitutional Tribunal as a PiS holdout. PiS stacked it with loyalists as part of controversial judiciary reform, which the European Union considers unlawful. “An arrest would make Minister Ziobro available for questioning,” said Zbigniew Zembaczyński, a member of the investigating commission from the biggest party in the ruling coalition, of the commission’s detention motion. “This isn’t a commission, these people are impostors,” Michał Wójcik, a PiS lawmaker, told media in the parliament building. The Friday commotion lands during a campaign ahead of the presidential election this May. PiS has been fighting to retain its edge over the Tusk administration by seeking a president friendly to its agenda who, like incumbent Andrzej Duda, is willing to derail the Tusk government’s efforts. The current government lacks the parliamentary votes to override presidential vetoes.

Hungary’s intelligence agency spied on EU officials visiting the country, searching their hotel rooms and recording their phone conversations, according to a bombshell report. A joint investigation by Direkt36 and De Tijd found Hungary’s Information Office (IH), Budapest’s equivalent of the CIA, targeted investigators at the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), which at one point was looking into a Hungarian company owned by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s son-in-law. The report by Hungarian investigative media center Direkt36 and Belgian newspaper De Tijd cited examples between 2015 and 2017 in which EU officials working for OLAF who had traveled to Hungary were physically followed during car journeys and had their phones tapped. The report added that it is common practice by Hungary’s spy agency to search the hotel rooms of visiting EU delegations and download information from their laptops. The Hungarian government had no immediate comment when contacted by POLITICO. Budapest has long been accused of hacking the phones of journalists, activists and opposition figures, with a Hungarian lawmaker acknowledging in 2021 that the government had purchased Israeli spyware. Earlier this year, an MEP critical of Hungary was also targeted by a cyberattack. A spokesperson for OLAF did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.

It’s been a hell of a ride for Ursula von der Leyen’s first team atop the European Commission from 2019-2024.  Those five years were dominated by one war on Europe’s doorstep and another in the Middle East, an ongoing energy crisis and a response to a global pandemic, as the Commission attempted to deliver on climate promises, advances on artificial intelligence and even a cure for cancer. In a note to staff, von der Leyen praised the outgoing Commission for fulfilling a promise to be “bold and ambitious” in meeting the aspirations of EU citizens and tackling the challenges ahead. They exceeded that promise, she added.  How do those internal compliments match up with what was promised and ultimately delivered?  Here’s POLITICO’s report card on the outgoing Commission. See who flunked and who passed the five-year policy test.  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Von der leyen Dombrovskis Vestager Borrell Jourová Kyriakides Šefčovič Hoekstra Wojciechowski Gentiloni McGuinness Dalli Schmit Ivanova Várhelyi Urpilainen Vălean Sinkevičius Simson Breton Schinas Šuica Lenarčič Ferreira Hahn Johansson Reynders -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URSULA VON DER LEYEN, PRESIDENT Verdict: Von der Leyen went from an unknown and an unexpected choice to helm the EU executive, to one of its most powerful leaders in recent history during her first term. She used the pandemic and the fallout of Russia’s war on Ukraine to tighten her grip on Europe’s decision-making process and to elevate her own public image beyond the corridors of Brussels institutions. While also criticized, her centralized decision-making helped Europe react quickly to crises. For her second term, as the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, she’ll have to steer the bloc through a second Donald Trump presidency while ensuring a more competitive EU versus the U.S. and China and delivering on the bloc’s climate targets. Grade: B- Back to the top VALDIS DOMBROVSKIS, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT FOR AN ECONOMY THAT WORKS FOR PEOPLE AND EUROPEAN COMMISSIONER FOR TRADE Verdict: The former Latvian premier could be living proof of the adage that the length of a job’s title is inversely proportional to its influence. Handed a broad remit covering the economy and trade, Dombrovskis lacked the power to make a difference as the EU faced major headwinds. First the pandemic, and then Russia’s war on Ukraine not only ravaged growth but led to a cost-of-living crisis. Meanwhile, an increasingly hostile geopolitical climate put free-trade deals out of reach as protectionism took hold. Still, Dombrovskis kept his composure — and famed poker face — through the ups and downs of his term. That dependable showing has now landed him another impossible task in von der Leyen’s second cabinet: simplifying the EU’s rampant bureaucracy. Grade: C+ Back to the top MARGRETHE VESTAGER, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT FOR A EUROPE FIT FOR A DIGITAL AGE Verdict: Vestager started her second term as antitrust chief with a fearsome reputation for fining big tech. Armed with a larger role ruling over tech policy, she pushed through landmark digital rules to rein in tech giants that have forced them to change their businesses. State aid proved more of a challenge during the pandemic, as governments lobbied for and against softer rules to allow more subsidies. One blot on her reign was Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, who called himself the “digital enforcer” and often sniped with her over key projects such as trying to unlock funding for chips. Grade: A- Back to the top JOSEP BORRELL, VICE PRESIDENT AND HIGH REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND SECURITY POLICY Verdict: The Spanish socialist was dealt a tough hand as the EU’s top diplomatic envoy. Halfway through his term, two wars broke out that would come to dominate his time in office. Borrell’s staunch backing for Ukraine earned broad support among EU capitals, but his statements on Israel made him an adversary of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), the EU’s most powerful political group. Critics argue that Borrell has little to show for his advocacy on the Middle East, while other areas such as the Western Balkans suffered neglect. Such critiques, combined with Borrell’s propensity for gaffes, make for a mixed report. Grade: C Back to the top VĚRA JOUROVÁ, VICE PRESIDENT FOR VALUES AND TRANSPARENCY Verdict: The Czech politician was at the center of two major battles, one offline and one online. Offline, she fronted the European Commission’s tussle with Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary over the rule of law. Online she led Brussels’ fight against disinformation and foreign interference and in support of media freedom across the bloc. A staunch liberal and a feisty commissioner, Jourová was known to shake the tree in interviews, terming Elon Musk a “promoter of evil” and in June calling out the Italian government of Giorgia Meloni for its handling of media freedom. In Brussels she maintained friendly relations with her peers and kept her complicated relationship with Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders mostly out of the public arena. Grade: B+ Vera Jourova. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images Back to the top STELLA KYRIAKIDES, HEALTH AND FOOD SAFETY Verdict: At first glance, Kyriakides pushed through more EU health policy than her predecessors, including new legislation to assess medicines, to finance the drugs regulator and to integrate EU health data, as well as starting a mammoth overhaul of pharma rules. She also led quick revisions of rules governing drugs and disease agencies amid the Covid pandemic and led initiatives on mental health and cancer. Health officials and experts praised her work, which included confronting Big Pharma, but lamented that her EU public health legacy wasn’t more substantial, as illustrated by the surge in vaccine hesitancy and the lack of progress on tobacco legislation.  Grade: A- Back to the top MAROŠ ŠEFČOVIČ, VICE PRESIDENT FOR THE EUROPEAN GREEN DEAL, INTERINSTITUTIONAL RELATIONS AND FORESIGHT Verdict: After 15 years on the European Commission, Šefčovič is now as much a part of the Berlaymont as stale breakfast-meeting croissants. This term he applied his experience to a dazzling array of messy briefs. From EU-U.K. relations to the only slightly less fraught interactions among EU institutions, von der Leyen believed Šefčovič’s callused hands were impervious to thorns. She turned to him to replace Frans Timmermans just as the consensus around the Green Deal broke down; on climate issues, meanwhile, he mostly took a back seat to Wopke Hoekstra (see below), but did help von der Leyen by taking on important listening tours with farmers and discontented industry groups. He’ll be back for a fourth term, nabbing the coveted trade portfolio. Grade: B Back to the top WOPKE HOEKSTRA, CLIMATE ACTION Verdict: Green groups were deeply skeptical that the Dutchman taking on the climate brief for the last year of the first von der Leyen Commission would prove a fellow traveler. His CV, after all, listed stints at Shell and McKinsey before he joined the Dutch government. But Hoekstra flipped the script and proved an able, at times even passionate defender of the EU’s climate goals. His penchant for carbon pricing is well known, and helped him not only keep his job but also expand it to include a taxation sidebar. Grade: A- Back to the top JANUSZ WOJCIECHOWSKI, AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT Verdict: Poland’s farm chief has been called one of the worst commissioners in EU history. He tried, but ultimately the 70-year-old politician didn’t have the negotiating chops to reform the bloc’s broken agrifood system. As the sole hard-right commissioner, Wojciechowski was isolated early on, a status that was only worsened by his micromanaging boss, Frans Timmermans, who was a backseat driver during the green transition for agriculture. The disgruntled Pole ended up traveling home often, contradicting his colleagues and increasingly pandering to farmer lobbies. He dreams of being remembered in Brussels; he’ll be lucky if he’s forgotten. Grade: D- Back to the top PAOLO GENTILONI, ECONOMY Verdict: The former Italian prime minister’s oversight of the EU economy came during an extraordinary period that included an unprecedented pandemic, the Ukraine war and a subsequent inflation crisis that tore through the bloc. These unique circumstances produced some radical political steps from the bloc’s executive, including the suspension and reform of the European Commission’s fiscal-rule regime and the creation of an €800 billion cash pot to help national economies recover from the multiple crises. While that bold response forestalled a broader economic crisis, it was not uncontroversial. Independent watchdogs said they were unable assess the impact of the new EU funds, while growth remains modest. On other matters, such as taxation, Gentiloni’s term was far less ambitious in its goals and centered more on international deals, given previous failures to convince governments to back more radical domestic amendments. Grade: B+ Back to the top MAIREAD MCGUINNESS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FINANCIAL STABILITY AND CAPITAL MARKETS UNION Verdict: McGuinness became a commissioner unexpectedly in 2020 after Phil Hogan resigned over the “Golfgate” scandal, as Ireland was downgraded from the powerful trade portfolio to financial services. But the former journalist and MEP made it work: She oversaw the release of new finance legislation, from banking and markets rules to clearing and green finance, focusing on policies that chimed with the public. She was hamstrung by industry lobbying, especially on making investing easier and cheaper for regular people, where a massive pre-emptive lobbying effort killed off the most ambitious parts of her proposals before the Commission had a chance to publish them. Known as energetic and personable, McGuiness connected with people, but often found herself in the crosshairs of more powerful EU figures on control of sanctions oversight and the digital euro.  Grade: B Back to the top HELENA DALLI, EQUALITY  Verdict: A member of the Malta Labour Party, Dalli became Europe’s first equality commissioner in 2019, delivering significant contributions during her mandate. She pushed for major directives such as the European Disability Rights Strategy and a directive to ensure equal pay transparency for men and women. In April, the largest European women’s rights network applauded her landmark directive on combating violence against women, while another equality group highlighted Dalli’s failure to criminalize forced sterilization as a missed opportunity. Her achievements drew little fanfare, however, and Dalli’s obscure public presence and minimal visibility may ultimately have proven her greatest weakness.  Grade: B+ Back to the top NICOLAS SCHMIT, JOBS AND SOCIAL RIGHTS Verdict: To his fans, Schmit was a knowledgeable commissioner whose experience as Luxembourg’s minister for employment coupled with his knowledge of Brussels politics helped him deliver. His achievements included the minimum wage directive, which was aimed at improving wages and collective bargaining across the bloc, and the hard-fought platform workers directive, meant to improve the working rights of users of digital labor platforms such as Uber and Deliveroo. To his detractors, however, he was a von der Leyen yes-man — even when challenging her as Commission president — who didn’t fight hard enough as a member of the College of Commissioners to push for more stringent regulations on social rights.  Grade: B Back to the top ILIANA IVANOVA, INNOVATION, RESEARCH, CULTURE, EDUCATION AND YOUTH Verdict: Admittedly, a year is not a lot of time in which to leave your mark as a European commissioner, especially when you’ve been handed the innovation portfolio. The Bulgarian, who filled in for compatriot Mariya Gabriel as commissioner in September 2023, highlighted the challenges that plague researchers and startups, such as critical technology leaking to China or difficulties in tapping growth funding — and did so in a more media-savvy way than her predecessor. But in arriving so late in the mandate she was unable to differentiate herself by attaching her name to a major rulebook, or by claiming credit for any research, innovation or startup success. She now returns to her previous job — underlining her status as a placeholder.  Grade: D+ Back to the top OLIVÉR VÁRHELYI, NEIGHBOURHOOD AND ENLARGEMENT Verdict: Just like Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán in the European Council, Várhelyi was the black sheep on the Commission. His enlargement portfolio rose to the top of the political agenda after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but he was widely seen as too partial in reviewing the efforts of Ukraine and other countries to join the bloc. The former Hungarian ambassador to the EU also triggered a major controversy when he announced a freeze on aid to the Palestinian territories in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year. He was immediately overruled by EU foreign affairs chief Borrell and, later, by von der Leyen.  Grade: F Olivér Várhelyi. | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images Back to the top JUTTA URPILAINEN, INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS Verdict: The Finn cemented the EU’s new approach to third countries via the flagship Global Gateway initiative, which mobilized up to €300 billion in public and private funds to finance infrastructure projects abroad, thereby offering those nations an alternative to China’s strategic largesse in its Belt and Road Initiative. But there were doubts whether Urpilainen had the political clout to defend Europe’s response to geopolitical competition within and outside the bloc. The supporters of Global Gateway have high hopes that upcoming Czech Commissioner Jozef Síkela will be an upgrade for the department overseeing Global Gateway. Grade: C- Back to the top ADINA VĂLEAN, TRANSPORT Verdict: An MEP since 2007, Vălean is in her element in the European Parliament. As a transport commissioner, however, she seemed out of sync, at times even bored with the legislation she was tasked with defending. Lawmakers and diplomats complained she lacked vision for transport, with one official singling her out as the most absentee commissioner within the EU executive even as her department churned out a long list of legislative texts. The commissioner won praise from some for her Covid certificates, which rebooted travel, and for the “green lanes” allowing trucks to circulate when countries shut their borders in futile attempts to halt the spread of Covid. And when Russia invaded Ukraine and halted its sea trade, the “solidarity lanes” that bolstered Ukrainian land exports were a key part of the EU’s response to the war. Grade: C- Back to the top VIRGINIJUS SINKEVIČIUS, ENVIRONMENT, OCEANS AND FISHERIES Verdict: The youngest-ever commissioner performed well in what turned out to be a relatively difficult portfolio, in which he had to balance economic interests with environmental protection. Lithuania’s former economy minister fought to get the contentious Green Deal legislation through, including new rules to prevent imports of products driving global deforestation; legislation to cut packaging waste or make consumer goods greener; air pollution limits; and attempts to boost the restoration of the natural environment. He was a strong advocate of the Green Deal, but failed to push through the much-awaited revision of the EU’s chemicals framework regulation (REACH) or set sweeping new rules, as promised, to decrease microplastic pollution. Overall, though, whatever you think of the Green Deal, his was a massive political achievement.  Grade: A- Back to the top KADRI SIMSON, ENERGY Verdict: Simson had a tough term with Russia’s war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis. But her biggest struggle was to establish herself in a Commission where key parts of her role were hoovered up by von der Leyen, ex-Green Deal chief Timmermans and Šefčovič. Her advocacy of greater support for Ukraine’s beleaguered energy grid in the face of Russian attacks deserves credit, and she was able to chart a course through stacks of complex legislation without any major crises. But quiet competence is rarely enough to stand out in a crowded field.  Grade: C Back to the top THIERRY BRETON, INTERNAL MARKET AND SERVICES Verdict: In charge of a huge portfolio spanning tech and industrial policy, the French commissioner vowed to use his experience as a tech chief executive to get things done for the EU. That formula worked for a time, with Breton coordinating EU medical supply production early in the Covid pandemic and helping to deliver the AI Act, the world’s first binding regulation on artificial intelligence. But Breton’s aggressive approach to EU politics and his repeated challenges to von der Leyen worked against him in the end, leading to his early exit from the Commission. Grade: C+ Back to the top MARGARITIS SCHINAS, VICE PRESIDENT FOR PROMOTING OUR EUROPEAN WAY OF LIFE Verdict: The Greek politician’s job was primarily focused on a new package of rules on how the bloc would manage migration. Schinas duly delivered the package, which had been under discussion for nearly a decade. In the final months of his term, however, 15 EU capitals demanded further changes to the bloc’s rules on migration, suggesting that the Migration Pact was not all it was cracked up to be. On other aspects of his job, namely upholding justice and core values, Schinas let other commissioners take the lead.  Grade: B- Back to the top DUBRAVKA ŠUICA, DEMOCRACY AND DEMOGRAPHY Verdict: Šuica had one of the Commission’s more loosely defined portfolios, with a focus on improving EU democracy. A key deliverable was organizing the Conference on the Future of Europe — a series of debates geared at making the EU feel more democratic, which the Croatian politician delivered in 2022. While the bloc is implementing much of the low-hanging fruit from the conference, it has balked at larger changes, such as plans to scrap unanimous decision-making in foreign policy. While her first term at the Commission was low-key, Šuica won von der Leyen’s confidence to earn a second term in the Berlaymont. Grade: B+ Back to the top JANEZ LENARČIČ, HUMANITARIAN AID AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT Verdict: Slovenia was tasked with improving the EU’s response to emergencies such as natural disasters and promoting humanitarian law. Lenarčič was an early pick to serve on von der Leyen’s Covid response team, where he was overshadowed by commissioners with more power — namely Breton and von der Leyen herself. On humanitarian law, Lenarčič established himself as a key critic of Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. On crisis management, however, he failed to make much of an impact, not least during the recent deadly floods in Valencia, Spain. Grade: B Back to the top ELISA FERREIRA, COHESION AND REFORMS Verdict: The Portuguese socialist was in charge of EU spending in poorer regions at a time when the program was overshadowed by the bloc’s €800 billion post-pandemic recovery fund, which largely neglected the local impact of investments. Ferreira’s influence was diminished by von der Leyen’s disinterest in regional policy and, more generally, by multiple crises that shifted attention elsewhere. The EU’s cohesion budget was used to fund medical equipment during the Covid crisis and assistance to Ukrainian refugees — undermining its core task of reducing inequalities across regions. While Ferreira passionately defended regional funding against growing criticism, she failed to articulate a vision of how to structure this policy in the future. Grade: C Back to the top JOHANNES HAHN, BUDGET Verdict: The experienced Austrian politician played a role in the EU’s most politically sensitive decisions, including funding to Ukraine, post-Covid financing and withholding EU cash to Hungary over its democratic backsliding. Hahn got the job done in most cases, even though von der Leyen frequently stole the limelight. In his five years, however, he achieved little progress on the introduction of EU-wide taxes to repay the bloc’s Covid debt, largely due to national resistance. In his final months in power he became reticent and arguably gave senior officials in his department too much freedom to float radical ideas that were politically toxic. With the EU’s new budget looming, Hahn’s Polish successor Piotr Serafin is likely to wield comparatively greater power. Grade: C Back to the top YLVA JOHANSSON, HOME AFFAIRS  Verdict: The blunt Swedish politician found a niche in what could be called both a broad and a narrow remit by focusing much of her attention on Europe’s approach to tech. A high-profile commissioner, Johansson called for tech companies to better screen their platforms for terrorism and child pornography, and urged Europol to process content and as a transformed digital agency. She struggled to oversee migration, a portfolio guarded closely by national governments, but stood strong in holding them to account for their policies, including slamming Greece for reportedly forcing migrants onto an emergency raft and abandoning them in the Aegean Sea in 2023. Grade: A- Back to the top DIDIER REYNDERS, JUSTICE Verdict: A Belgian political veteran, Reynders played his Berlaymont role in overseeing the EU’s high-profile legal stand-off with Hungary over the rule of law without — crucially — upstaging his boss. Known in his home country as Mr. Teflon for his ability to shake off political scandals, Reynders’ success as commissioner meant he steered clear of political live wires, as seen in his muted responses to national spyware scandals. One failure: Reynders emerges from the job without having lined up another high-profile gig, having lost — for the second time — his bid to lead the Council of Europe in the summer. Grade: C Back to the top Max Griera, Sejla Ahmatovic, Barbara Moens, Nicholas Vinocur, Alessandro Ford, Douglas Busvine, Kathryn Carlson, Pieter Haeck, Gregorio Sorgi, Izabella Kaminska, Giovanna Faggionato, Helen Collis, Louise Guillot, Laurens Cerulus, and Aoife White contributed reporting. 

Well, the Trump show’s just been rebooted. And Europe can’t look away. European policymakers have spent months preparing for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. But let’s be honest, they don’t really know how this will all unfold. For instance, Trump has promised to slap tariffs on every single European good entering the U.S. So the EU has preemptively locked and loaded some retaliatory measures. Seems logical — but that only works in a world where Trump is not erratic and impulsive. Also, remember Trump’s boast that he could instantly “end” Russia’s war in Ukraine? Whatever his bluster means, it has ramifications in Europe. And that’s just what’s consuming the headlines. Trump’s victory will inevitably affect every area of EU policy, from drug pricing to green technologies to artificial intelligence standards. So buckle up while POLITICO futurecasts what this all means for the EU. The remake will be unmissable, if nothing else. Energy Climate Trade Central banking Sustainability Financial services Health Mobility Defense Tech Competition Cybersecurity ENERGY Trump has boiled his energy policy down to three words: “drill, baby, drill.” His vow to boost oil and gas extraction, and ship more fossil fuels abroad, has raised eyebrows among environmentalists but has industry eyeing big profits. Despite American exports of natural gas hitting a record high last year, Trump wants to ax a Biden administration freeze on permits for new liquified natural gas (LNG) projects, a restriction that creates uncertainty for the European market. His crusade against the green transition could be less crowd pleasing. Some in Trump’s camp want him to scrap the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which allocates more than half a trillion dollars for projects like clean tech, hydrogen and renewable energy. That program, however, has created jobs in key states and drawn business away from Europe, giving the U.S. a head start over the EU in industries such as wind, solar, alternative fuels and electric vehicles. Its repeal could be a boon for Brussels as it sets its sights on competition with Washington. Back to the top CLIMATE Donald Trump’s victory spells environmental disaster. To avert catastrophic levels of global warming, the world has very little time to dramatically slash emissions. Yet under Trump — who plans to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement once again and double down on fossil fuels — the pace of the green transition is projected to slow down rather than speed up.  With the U.S. responsible for more than a tenth of planet-warming pollution, any shift in American climate policy has global consequences. A hotter planet means more disasters, including within the EU, which has to prepare accordingly for worse climate impacts. And some fear Trump’s win may reduce momentum for climate action worldwide, putting the Paris Agreement goals even further out of reach.  Funding for climate action in poorer countries is the hot topic at this year’s global climate summit starting Nov. 11, and Trump’s victory may plunge the conference into uncertainty — with many looking toward the EU to step up and fill the leadership vacuum. Yet without U.S. backing for much-needed reforms of the global financial architecture to cope with the climate challenge, debt-distressed developing countries will struggle to raise the necessary funds to switch away from fossil fuels.  Back to the top Donald Trump’s victory spells environmental disaster. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images TRADE “America First” will again sum up Trump’s approach to trade policy.  He’s vowed to bring back jobs to the U.S. and punish friends and foes with across-the-board tariffs of 10 or 20 percent (and up to 60 percent on goods coming from China), despite economists’ warnings of a detrimental impact on U.S. economic growth and higher costs for consumers. Trump’s trade policy is focused more on reducing the sizable U.S. trade deficit than on opening up new market opportunities. Trade policy will mainly be seen through the national security and geopolitical lens.  The EU failed to capitalize on the détente with the Biden administration to fix lingering trade disputes on steel and aluminum tariffs, green subsidies on electric cars, and reviving the highest court of the World Trade Organization. These rifts are expected to worsen under Trump.  The most immediate stress tests for Brussels and Washington will be to find a solution to the EU’s paused retaliatory tariffs against Washington (the truce elapses in March 2025), as well as its aircraft dispute over subsidies for Airbus and Boeing by 2026.  Back to the top CENTRAL BANKING Call it Trumpageddon.  If the president-elect goes ahead with even half the ideas he’s floated on the campaign trail, expect serious pain for the European economy. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the euro could drop as much as 10 percent against the dollar if the new administration enacts its across-the-board tariff plan, while earnings among a group of Europe’s largest companies could fall by more than 5 percent next year.  Trump has explicitly called for more White House interference into the working of the U.S. Federal Reserve — America’s central bank — which has made its independence from politicians into a calling card. That could have huge implications for the stability of the global financial system, as well as the continued dominance of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Less direct, but no less impactful, are plans to deport undocumented migrants by the millions. It’s not yet clear who will be in the crosshairs of the mass deportation program, but given the importance of migrant labor, even the undocumented kind, for key sections of the American economy, there will be an unavoidable upwards pressure on prices. That could translate to higher U.S. interest rates, and put pressure on the European Central Bank to follow, screwing with an already shaky economic recovery. Back to the top SUSTAINABILITY It’ll come as no surprise to Brussels that the president-elect is not a fan of green policymaking. While the Trump administration probably won’t impact Brussels’ own rule-setting on green issues, Trump’s animosity for environmental policy will widen the gap between the two blocs on the international stage and harm the EU’s ambitions to promote multilateral cooperation. Under Biden, efforts to mandate American businesses to report on their environmental footprint were already stalling, frustrating Brussels’ hopes of creating global standards so companies operating in Europe don’t feel unfairly burdened. Under Trump, Brussels can kiss that dream goodbye.  Waltzing into the Oval office for a second time, Trump could also start backtracking on international commitments made by the U.S. The Republican Party is strongly against the U.S.-backed proposal to limit plastic production as part of the ongoing negotiations for a global plastics treaty. This could crush the EU’s hopes of American support in the final round of talks later this month. Back to the top Domald Trump’s animosity for environmental policy will harm the EU’s ambitions to promote multilateral cooperation. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images FINANCIAL SERVICES Trump’s victory will set the teeth of the world’s finance regulators on edge. Many global rules aimed at preventing another global financial crisis are drawn up in international bodies like the Financial Stability Board, IOSCO and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision – all of which could be under threat from an uncooperative U.S.  In the short term, the Trump win looks like bad news for the global rollout of bank capital rules known as Basel III, drawn up after the 2007-2008 crisis to make sure lenders have enough reserves to cope with economic shocks. The U.S. has already changed its plans and postponed its rollout of the global rules after massive lobbying from the banking industry, and now could well scrap the rules altogether, prompting fears of financial instability.  But Wall Street is likely to be happy with Trump’s “America First” economic policies which boost manufacturing and loosen regulations, particularly on competition. Trump didn’t rock the boat on financial services policy the first time around, stacking regulators with Wall Street grandees. But while campaigning this time he launched a crypto venture. So the jury’s out on that one.  Back to the top HEALTH In his previous stint as president, Trump attempted to curb drug prices with little impact. Since then, the Biden administration has used the IRA to push through far-reaching drug price restrictions for people on Medicare, the health insurance for older Americans. Trump is unlikely to roll this back, meaning Big Pharma in the U.S. and Europe will be considering their investment options as both regions push to limit pharma profits. Global health advocates might also be fearing that Trump will once again withdraw from the World Health Organization (Biden overturned Trump’s previous withdrawal on his first day in office). The U.S. is the largest funder of the U.N. body, so its disengagement would have a huge impact on global health projects. Abortion has been one of the top voter concerns this election campaign. Trump, who claimed victory for overturning women’s right to abortion via Roe v. Wade, has since said he would veto a federal ban, leaving power with the states on the extent to which abortion is or isn’t allowed. Back to the top MOBILITY Donald Trump’s victory is likely to hurt European carmakers. “I want German car companies to become American car companies,” Trump recently told his supporters, promising “the lowest taxes, the lowest energy costs and the lowest regulatory burden” for automakers that choose to move production to the U.S. and “a very substantial tariff” on the others. Republicans also promised to cancel Biden’s electric vehicle mandate, which aims to ensure that half of all new cars and trucks sold in 2030 are zero-emission. Trump’s reelection could also spell bad news for Airbus and the rest of the European aircraft sector, with a possible wave of aerospace protectionism aimed at rescuing Boeing from troubled waters. It also remains to be seen if Trump will maintain his skepticism of green tech policies or continue to subsidize sustainable aviation fuels, which benefited massively from the Biden administration’s tax cuts under the IRA. As for shipping, which is most exposed to the negative effects of tariffs, the sector will be closely watching any type of trade war that a second Trump administration might launch. Back to the top DEFENSE A Trump win means Europe can no longer — or at least much less — rely on the U.S. for its defense and security. Donald Trump threatened during his first term to leave NATO and has repeatedly said on the campaign trail that Washington wouldn’t come to the rescue of allies who don’t invest enough in their military in case of a Russian aggression.  In a way, this may be a blessing in disguise for the EU, forcing European governments to work more closely together and make bold decisions — such as agreeing to joint borrowing to boost the bloc’s defense industry. France could revive discussions on the European aspect of its nuclear doctrine, while Brussels and London could accelerate talks for a defense and security agreement. Most countries would likely raise defense spending as much as possible.  On the other hand, we may see European capitals bilaterally try to curry favor with a Trump administration to ensure Washington remains interested in their security, namely by increasing even more purchases of U.S.-made weapons when the European Commission is trying to incentivize EU countries to buy local.  A Trump win means Europe can no longer — or at least much less — rely on the U.S. for its defense and security. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images The Trump win could mean the end of U.S. military aid to Ukraine and pressure on Kyiv to negotiate a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even if the terms are more favorable for Moscow.  Back to the top TECH Under Biden, the EU was on speaking terms with the U.S. on tech. The Trump win could change that by spelling the end of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, the biannual transatlantic political gathering founded in 2021 as a place for the U.S. and the EU to discuss tech policy and coordinate on topics such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence standards. The collapse of such a diplomatic backchannel could come when international alignment on AI governance is needed the most.  Another liability is Trump’s proximity to Elon Musk, the owner of X, who has become a big Trump supporter. If the EU fines X for breaches of the bloc’s content-moderation rulebook, the relationship between Trump and the European Commission could sour very quickly and reinvigorate a well-known narrative that the EU is only trying to “take U.S. Big Tech companies down.”  Back to the top COMPETITION A Trump win opens up an uncertain era, as he hasn’t expressed clear lines on industrial policy or antitrust regulation, beyond an “America First” approach. While no fan of Big Tech, he has expressed frustration over European efforts to rein in American companies. He told a podcast in October that Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook had called him to complain about an EU antitrust fine and losing a court ruling that required it to hand over billions of euros in back tax. He appears to oppose U.S. and EU antitrust efforts to split off parts of Google’s business, saying that “China is afraid of Google.” Trump has been backed by tycoon Elon Musk who has run into several digital regulation battles with the European Commission. Ultimately, Trump’s win may speed up European efforts to rely less on the U.S. as a partner, pushing on with an economic security strategy that emphasizes European production and a wide range of international suppliers and markets. That could see more pressure within Europe for EU merger reviews to allow bigger European companies and for more government help to boost European champions. Back to the top CYBERSECURITY The biggest cybersecurity impact of a Trump win is that his administration could remove Israeli spyware firms from the U.S. entity list of companies deemed a national security concern. Some of them, like NSO Group, have already been lobbying Republicans. The U.S. could also abandon American-led international efforts to clamp down on the proliferation and misuse of commercial spyware, which would have a ricochet effect on global efforts to rein in the surveillance tool.  Any distancing of the U.S. from NATO under Trump could also affect the Western alliance’s cyber capabilities.  Back to the top Gabriel Gavin, Zia Weise, Camille Gijs, Marianne Gros, Kathryn Carlson, Helen Collis, Tommaso Lecca, Laura Kayali, Pieter Haeck, Aude Van Den Hove, Antoaneta Roussi and Cory Bennett contributed to this report.