LONDON — If there’s one thing Keir Starmer has mastered in office, it’s changing
his mind.
The PM has been pushed by his backbenchers toward a flurry of about-turns since
entering Downing Street just 18 months ago.
Starmer’s vast parliamentary majority hasn’t stopped him feeling the pressure —
and has meant mischievous MPs are less worried their antics will topple the
government.
POLITICO recaps 7 occasions MPs mounted objections to the government’s agenda —
and forced the PM into a spin. Expect this list to get a few more updates…
PUB BUSINESS RATES
Getting on the wrong side of your local watering hole is never a good idea. Many
Labour MPs realized that the hard way.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves used her budget last year to slash a pandemic-era
discount on business rates — taxes levied on firms — from 75 percent to 40
percent.
Cue uproar from publicans.
Labour MPs were barred from numerous boozers in protest at a sharp bill increase
afflicting an already struggling hospitality sector.
A £300 million lifeline for pubs, watering down some of the changes, is now
being prepped. At least Treasury officials should now have a few more places to
drown their sorrows.
Time to U-turn: 43 days (Nov. 26, 2025 — Jan. 8, 2026).
FARMERS’ INHERITANCE TAX
Part of Labour’s electoral success came from winning dozens of rural
constituencies. But Britain’s farmers soon fell out of love with the
government.
Reeves’ first budget slapped inheritance tax on farming estates worth more than
£1 million from April 2026.
Farmers drive tractors near Westminster ahead of a protest against inheritance
tax rules on Nov. 19, 2024. | Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images
Aimed at closing loopholes wealthy individuals use to avoid coughing up to the
exchequer, the decision generated uproar from opposition parties (calling the
measure the “family farm tax”) and farmers themselves, who drove tractors around
Westminster playing “Baby Shark.”
Campaigners including TV presenter and newfound farmer Jeremy Clarkson joined
the fight by highlighting that many farmers are asset rich but cash poor — so
can’t fund increased inheritance taxes without flogging off their estates
altogether.
A mounting rebellion by rural Labour MPs (including Cumbria’s Markus
Campbell-Savours, who lost the whip for voting against the budget resolution on
inheritance tax) saw the government sneak out a threshold hike to £2.5 million
just two days before Christmas, lowering the number of affected estates from 375
to 185. Why ever could that have been?
Time to U-turn: 419 days (Oct. 30, 2024 — Dec. 23, 2025).
WINTER FUEL PAYMENTS
Labour’s election honeymoon ended abruptly just three and a half weeks into
power after Reeves made an economic move no chancellor before her dared to
take.
Reeves significantly tightened eligibility for winter fuel payments, a
previously universal benefit helping the older generation with heating costs in
the colder months.
Given pensioners are the cohort most likely to vote, the policy was seen as a
big electoral gamble. It wasn’t previewed in Labour’s manifesto and made many
newly elected MPs angsty.
After a battering in the subsequent local elections, the government swiftly
confirmed all pensioners earning up to £35,000 would now be eligible for the
cash. That’s one way of trying to bag the grey vote.
Time until U-turn: 315 days (July 29, 2024 — June 9, 2025).
WELFARE REFORM
Labour wanted to rein in Britain’s spiraling welfare bill, which never fully
recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The government vowed to save around £5 billion by tightening eligibility for
Personal Independence Payment (PIP), a benefit helping people in and out of work
with long term health issues. It also said other health related benefits would
be cut.
However, Labour MPs worried about the impact on the most vulnerable (and
nervously eyeing their inboxes) weren’t impressed. More than 100 signed an
amendment that would have torpedoed the proposed reforms.
The government vowed to save around £5 billion by tightening eligibility for
Personal Independence Payment. | Vuk Valcic via SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty
Images
In an initial concession, the government said existing PIP claimants wouldn’t be
affected by any eligibility cuts. It wasn’t enough: Welfare Minister Stephen
Timms was forced to confirm in the House of Commons during an actual, ongoing
welfare debate that eligibility changes for future claimants would be delayed
until a review was completed.
What started as £5 billion of savings didn’t reduce welfare costs whatsoever.
Time to U-turn: 101 days (Mar. 18, 2025 — June 27, 2025).
GROOMING GANGS INQUIRY
The widescale abuse of girls across Britain over decades reentered the political
spotlight in early 2025 after numerous tweets from X owner Elon Musk. It led to
calls for a specific national inquiry into the scandal.
Starmer initially rejected this request, pointing to recommendations left
unimplemented from a previous inquiry into child sexual abuse and arguing for a
local approach. Starmer accused those critical of his stance (aka Musk) of
spreading “lies and misinformation” and “amplifying what the far-right is
saying.”
Yet less than six months later, a rapid review from crossbench peer Louise Casey
called for … a national inquiry. Starmer soon confirmed one would happen.
Time to U-turn: 159 days (Jan. 6, 2025 — June 14, 2025).
‘ISLAND OF STRANGERS’
Immigration is a hot-button issue in the U.K. — especially with Reform UK Leader
Nigel Farage breathing down Starmer’s neck.
The PM tried reflecting this in a speech last May, warning that Britain risked
becoming an “island of strangers” without government action to curb migration.
That triggered some of Starmer’s own MPs, who drew parallels with the notorious
1968 “rivers of blood” speech by politician Enoch Powell.
The PM conceded he’d put a foot wrong month later, giving an Observer interview
where he claimed to not be aware of the Powell connection. “I deeply regret
using” the term, he said.
Time to U-turn: 46 days (May 12, 2025 — June 27, 2025).
Immigration is a hot-button issue in the U.K. — especially with Reform UK Leader
Nigel Farage breathing down Starmer’s neck. | Tolga Akmen/EPA
TWO-CHILD BENEFIT CAP
Here’s the U-turn that took the longest to arrive — but left Labour MPs the
happiest.
Introduced by the previous Conservative government, a two-child welfare cap
meant parents could only claim social security payments such as Universal Credit
or tax credits for their first two children.
Many Labour MPs saw it as a relic of the Tory austerity era. Yet just weeks into
government, seven Labour MPs lost the whip for backing an amendment calling for
it to be scrapped, highlighting Reeves’ preference for fiscal caution over easy
wins.
A year and a half later, that disappeared out the window.
Reeves embracing its removal in her budget last fall as a child poverty-busty
measure got plenty of cheers from Labour MPs — though the cap’s continued
popularity with some voters may open up a fresh vulnerability.
Time until U-turn: 491 days (July 23, 2024 — Nov. 26, 2025).
Tag - Misinformation
LONDON — A mutated influenza strain is spreading early in Europe this winter,
but some experts warn talk of a “superflu” is misleading, erodes public trust
and distracts from the underlying problems of the National Health Service.
The new strain has triggered dramatic headlines in the U.K., where health
leaders are warning of a “worst-case scenario” for the country’s NHS. Health
Secretary Wes Streeting described it as a “tidal wave of flu tearing through our
hospitals” and labelled it a “challenge unlike any [the NHS] has seen since the
pandemic.”
While hospital admissions have been rising sharply due to the early arrival of
flu season, there is currently no evidence that this season’s variant is more
deadly or transmissible, experts at the World Health Organization (WHO) and the
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) told POLITICO. Neither
does the data suggest hospital admissions will peak higher than previous years —
although this is possible — just that they’re a few weeks early.
But some experts in the U.K. have criticized the government’s “superflu”
narrative, suggesting it’s being used as leverage in talks on doctor pay and
conditions ahead of a looming strike.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer wrote in The Guardian Friday it was “beyond belief”
doctors would consider striking in these “potentially dire” circumstances,
citing “a superflu epidemic.”
The British Medical Association (BMA), the union representing resident doctors
due to go on strike Wednesday, claimed it was “irresponsible to portray the
current winter flu crisis as unprecedented” given that rates of infection and
hospitalization were “comparable to most years,” a spokesperson told POLITICO.
Mathematician Christina Pagel, a professor at University College London, said
the “superflu” line was based on the “highly misleading use of statistics” and
had more to do with the impending doctors’ strike than real trends.
When contacted by POLITICO, the U.K. government stood by its health leaders’
warnings of the current flu season, in which they described it as an
“unprecedented wave of super flu.” They said staff were being “pushed to the
limit.” The government also pointed to stats showing the NHS is under pressure.
A DHSC spokesperson told POLITICO the government had offered the BMA an extended
mandate so they could strike in January instead, but the union rejected it. The
BMA told POLITICO the extension included “several restrictive conditions.”
THE IMPORTANCE OF TRUST
The government and NHS bosses have warned the heavy burden on hospitals in
December could set the health system up for a very severe winter. NHS statistics
published last week show an average of 2,660 patients in hospital with flu per
day, a record for this time of year, while the Health Foundation has said the
NHS could face “major pressures” if cases continue to climb rapidly in the weeks
ahead.
Yet, while NHS staff are stretched, Pagel and others argue this year is largely
consistent with previous severe flu seasons. However, without being clear about
this with the public, some experts are concerned the government’s messaging
could do more harm than good.
“One of the real issues we have with governments everywhere is trust,” Martin
McKee, professor of public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine, told POLITICO.
While NHS staff are stretched, experts argue this year is largely consistent
with previous severe flu seasons. | Geography Photos/Getty Images
“The difficulty is we’ve seen them do all sorts of things for all sorts of
motives. That then becomes a problem whenever they are saying something
accurate,” McKee said, adding that the government should be more careful in its
flu messaging given the declining trust in science.
POLITICO put these concerns over trust in science to DHSC, but the department
did not respond by the time of publication.
A spokesperson for government-sponsored NHS England told POLITICO: “The NHS is
not misleading the public — this is the earliest flu season we have seen in
recent years with the latest data showing the numbers of patients in hospital
with flu is extremely high for this time of year.”
The NHS is struggling as it often does in winter, with a spike in delayed
discharges — people who are ready to leave hospital but have nowhere to go —
posing an extra challenge for hospitals, The Guardian reported Sunday.
Hospital admissions for flu per 100,000 rose 23 percent in last week’s data,
compared to 69 percent the previous week, but this doesn’t rule out another
surge in the weeks ahead.
McKee said the NHS was paying the price for chronic underinvestment. “We almost
seem surprised that it’s arrived,” he said of the current flu wave, citing a
“massive shortage” in beds, IT equipment and scanners.
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY
There is no reason to think the current flu strain (H3N2 sub-clade K) causes
more severe disease than other types of flu, Hans Kluge, head of the World
Health Organization’s Europe office, told POLITICO.
Nor is there any solid evidence that it is more transmissible, said Edoardo
Colzani, a flu expert at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
It’s possible the lower level of immunity to this strain could lead to more
cases “but this is still speculative at this stage,” Colzani said.
“The epidemiological situation at the moment [in the EU] does not seem worse
than in previous years apart from the fact that it is two-to-three weeks
earlier,” Colzani said. Kluge said it was “about 4 weeks earlier than usual,”
which “is not out of the ordinary” and trending similar to the 2022–2023
influenza season.
There were some concerns the available flu vaccine might not be a “perfect
match” for the current strain, Kluge said, but early data from the U.K. suggests
it provides “meaningful protection” and may prevent severe disease and death,
especially among vulnerable groups.
“We [could] end up having a much bigger wave than usual but we have no
evidence,” Pagel said, adding she thought it was “most likely” to peak “in a
couple of weeks.” But the available data can’t tell us whether it will be a
normal wave that starts and ends early, or an especially bad season, she added.
“We don’t know when it will turn the corner but the actual shape of the wave
doesn’t look that different from previous years,” McKee said.
The NHS has previously warned of the risk of a “long and drawn-out flu season”
due to the early start. According to the WHO, some countries in the southern
hemisphere had unusually long flu seasons this year.
“Based on previous trends, this season is expected to peak in late December or
early January,” Kluge said.
The advice from EU and U.K. authorities remains the same — get a flu vaccine as
soon as possible, especially for those in a vulnerable group.
PARIS — How do you celebrate a major anniversary of the world’s most significant
climate treaty while deprioritizing the fight against climate change?
That’s the quandary in Paris heading into Friday, when the landmark Paris
Agreement turns 10.
With budgets strapped and the fight against climate change losing political
momentum, the only major celebration planned by the French government consists
of a reception inside the Ministry of Ecological Transition hosted by the
minister, Monique Barbut, according to the invitation card seen by POLITICO.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu won’t be there, and it’s unclear if President
Emmanuel Macron will attend.
Lecornu will be talking about health care in the region of Eure,
where he’s from. Macron’s plans for Friday are not yet public, but the day
before he’ll address the “consequences of misinformation on climate change” as
part of a nationwide tour to speak with French citizens about technology and
misinformation.
According to two ministerial advisers, the Elysée Palace had initially planned
to organize an event, details of which were not released, but it was canceled at
the last minute. When contacted about the plans, the Elysée did not respond.
Even if Macron ends up attending the ministerial event, the muted nature of the
celebration is both a symptom of the political backlash against Europe’s green
push and a metaphor for the Paris Agreement’s increasingly imperiled legacy
— sometimes at the hands of France itself, which had been supposed to act as
guarantor of the accord.
“France wants to be the guardian of the Paris Agreement, [but] it also needs to
implement it,” said Lorelei Limousin, a climate campaigner at Greenpeace. “That
means really putting the resources in place, particularly financial resources,
to move away from fossil fuels, both in France and internationally.”
PARIS AGREEMENT’S BIRTHDAY PLANNER
Before being appointed to government, Barbut was Macron’s special climate envoy
and had been tasked with organizing the treaty’s celebration. She told
POLITICO in June that she hoped to use the annual Paris Peace Forum to celebrate
the anniversary, then bring together hundreds of the world’s leading climate
scientists in late November and welcome them at the Elysée.
Those events, which have already come and gone, were supposed to be followed by
a grand finale on Friday.
According to one of the ministerial advisers previously cited, the moratorium on
government communications spending introduced in October by the prime minister
threw a wrench in those plans.
“We’d like to do something more festive, but the problem is that we have no
money,” the adviser said.
Environmentalists say the muted plans point to a government that remains mired
in crisis and shows little interest in prioritizing climate change. Lecornu is
laser-focused on getting a budget passed before the end of the year, whereas
Macron’s packed agenda sees him hopscotching across the globe to tackle
geopolitical crises and touring France to talk about his push to regulate social
media.
Anne Bringault, program director at the Climate Action Network, accused the
government of trying to minimize the anniversary of the treaty “on the sly”
because there “is no political support” for a celebration.
Some hope the government will use the occasion to present an update of its
climate roadmap, the national low-carbon strategy, which is more than two years
overdue.
They also still hope that Lecornu will change his plans and show up to mark the
occasion. Apart from his trip to his fiefdom in the Eure, the prime minister’s
schedule shows no appointments. His office told POLITICO that Lecornu has no
plans to change his schedule for the time being.
As for Macron, it’s still unclear what he’ll be doing on Friday.
This story is adapted from an article published by POLITICO in French.
Pediatric respiratory diseases are among the most common and serious health
challenges we face worldwide. From examples such as respiratory syncytial virus
(RSV) to pertussis (also known as whooping cough), these infections can cause
significant illness, hospitalizations, and with some, possible long-term
consequences.[1],[2] Worldwide, RSV causes approximately 3.6 million
hospitalizations and 100,000 deaths each year in children under five years of
age.[3] Yet, many of these infections may be prevented, if we continue to
prioritize and strengthen immunization.
Immunization is not just a scientific achievement; it’s a public health
imperative. And in this new era, Sanofi is at the forefront, driving innovation
and access to pediatric immunization, especially when it comes to respiratory
disease prevention. Our commitment is global, our ambition bold: to help protect
people everywhere against preventable illnesses, with the confidence that every
child, every parent, every person, and every healthcare professional deserves.
> Immunization is not just a scientific achievement; it’s a public health
> imperative.
RSV, a leading cause of infant hospitalizations globally, exemplifies both the
challenge and the opportunity.[4],[5],[6],[7] With an estimated 12.9 million
lower respiratory infections and 2.2 million hospitalizations annually among
infants under one year of age,3 the burden is immense. For decades, RSV lacked
preventive options for the broad infant population.
Some countries in Europe are a good illustration of what is possible when
prevention is prioritized. For example, in Galicia, Spain, implementation of a
universal program offered to the broad infant population led to notable
reductions in RSV-related hospitalization compared with previous seasons.[8] The
lesson is clear: when prevention is prioritized like it matters, delivered
equitably and integrated into routine care, the impact is quickly seen.
This principle applies to other childhood respiratory diseases. Hexavalent
combination vaccinations have helped to revolutionize pediatric immunization by
combining protection against six diseases into one vaccine. One of these is
pertussis, which is especially dangerous for children who haven’t received all
their vaccinations yet, and have a four-fold higher risk of contracting whooping
cough.[9] For younger infants pertussis is high risk, with over 40 percent of
infants under six months of age requiring hospitalization.[10] These data
demonstrate how delayed or missed vaccine doses can leave children vulnerable.
By combining vaccines into a single shot, immunization uptake can be improved,
increasing acceptance with efficient and equitable delivery and helping reduce
disease burden at scale.[11],[12]
> Some countries in Europe are a good illustration of what is possible when
> prevention is prioritized. For example, in Galicia, Spain, implementation of a
> universal program offered to the broad infant population led to notable
> reductions in RSV-related hospitalization compared with previous seasons.
Good uptake is crucial for protecting children. Where programs are fragmented,
under-resourced or underfunded, equity gaps worsen along familiar lines –
income, access and information. The recent resurgence of some preventable
diseases is not just a warning; it’s a call to action.[13],[14],[15] Sustaining
protection against respiratory diseases in children, increasing vaccination
coverage rates, and embracing innovation to help protect against more diseases
must be a collective priority.[11],[12]
We must not let misinformation or complacency erode public trust in
immunization. The evidence is clear: prevention works. Today, we have a unique
opportunity to showcase that impact and redefine the future of respiratory
health in children.
> We must not let misinformation or complacency erode public trust in
> immunization. The evidence is clear: prevention works.
The science is sound. The approach for protecting infants against respiratory
infections is clear. Our children deserve nothing less.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Glaser EL, et al. Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus on Child, Caregiver,
and Society. Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2022;226(Supplement_2):S236-S241
[2] Kardos P, et al. Understanding the impact of adult pertussis and its
complications. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2024.
[3] Li Y, Wang X, Blau DM, et al. Global, regional, and national disease burden
estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial
virus in children younger than 5 years in 2019: a systematic analysis. Lancet
2022;399:2047-2064.
[4] Leader S, Kohlhase K. Respiratory syncytial virus-coded pediatric
hospitalizations, 1997 to 1999. The Pediatric infectious disease journal.
2002;21(7):629-32.
[5] McLaurin KK, Farr AM, Wade SW, Diakun DR, Stewart DL. Respiratory syncytial
virus hospitalization outcomes and costs of full-term and preterm infants.
Journal of Perinatology: official journal of the California Perinatal
Association. 2016;36(11):990-6.
[6] Rha B, et al. Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Hospitalizations Among
Young Children: 2015-2016. Pediatrics. 2020;146:e20193611.
[7] Arriola CS, et al. Estimated Burden of Community-Onset Respiratory Syncytial
Virus-Associated Hospitalizations Among Children Aged <2 Years in the United
States, 2014-15. J Pediatric Infect Dis Soc. 2020;9:587-595.
[8] Ares-Gómez S, et al. NIRSE-GAL Study Group. Effectiveness and impact of
universal prophylaxis with nirsevimab in infants against hospitalisation for
respiratory syncytial virus in Galicia, Spain: initial results of a
population-based longitudinal study. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2024; 24:
817-828.
[9] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2019 Final Pertussis
Surveillance Report. Accessed 4 March 2025
[10] Glanz, J. M., et al. (2013) Association between undervaccination with
diphtheria, tetanus toxoids, and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine and risk of
pertussis infection in children 3 to 36 months of age. JAMA Pediatr. doi:
10.1001/jamapediatrics.2013.2353
[11] Fatima M, Hong KJ. Innovations, Challenges, and Future Prospects for
Combination Vaccines Against Human Infections. Vaccines (Basel). 2025 Mar
21;13(4):335. doi: 10.3390/vaccines13040335. PMID: 40333234; PMCID: PMC12031483.
[12] Maman K, Zöllner Y, Greco D, Duru G, Sendyona S, Remy V. The value of
childhood combination vaccines: From beliefs to evidence. Hum Vaccin Immunother.
2015;11(9):2132-41. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2015.1044180. PMID: 26075806; PMCID:
PMC4635899.
[13] Liu J, Lu G, Qiao J. Global resurgence of pertussis in infants BMJ 2025;
391 :r2169 doi:10.1136/bmj.r2169
[14] Jenco M. AAP, CHA call for emergency declaration to address surge of
pediatric illnesses. AAP News. 2022
[15] Wang, S., Zhang, S., & Liu, J. (2025). Resurgence of pertussis:
Epidemiological trends, contributing factors, challenges, and recommendations
for vaccination and surveillance. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 21(1).
https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2025.2513729
MAT-GLB-2506084
When voters went to the polls to elect Ireland’s next president, some of them
may have been surprised to see Catherine Connolly’s name on the ballot.
Just days before, a deepfake video showing the eventual winner withdrawing from
the race had circulated, imitating Connolly and multiple journalists within its
fake reality.
In the Netherlands, two far-right members of parliament were found to be behind
a Facebook page promoting deepfake images of their left-wing rival ahead of
Sunday’s tight election, prompting apologies and recrimination.
This was the week that artificial intelligence hit two European electoral
campaigns in a major way and exposed significant gaps in ongoing efforts to curb
undue influence on voters.
There are concerns about what that means for European politics and for its
voters, as politicians and regulators wake up to the arrival of AI-generated
text and video content that has been part of U.S. political life for some time.
“The normalisation of such practices is worrying,” said Hannes Cools, assistant
professor on the human factor in new technologies at the University of
Amsterdam.
The Dutch election “is one of the first elections in Europe where we see that
[the technology] has become an integral part in electoral campaigns in various
ways,” said Claes de Vreese, a professor of artificial intelligence and society
at the University of Amsterdam.
SHOCK JOCK
In a study of some 20,000 election-related posts in the Netherlands, researchers
from the University of Amsterdam and the University of Mainz found that over 400
posts were AI-generated.
The party of far-right leader Geert Wilders, the Party for Freedom (PVV), came
out on top in its use of AI. More than a quarter of the AI posts (120 in total)
could be traced back to PVV-linked accounts.
Wilders kicked off the PVV’s campaign with an AI-generated video depicting a
fictional future Netherlands living under Sharia law. Dutch weekly De Groene
Amsterdammer reported that the video was made with OpenAI’s video generator
Sora.
When asked about the dominance of extremist or fringe parties in the use of AI,
researcher Fabio Votta said, “There’s still a normative aspect of using AI.”
“For the far-right, a lot of their modus is norm-breaking and shocking. They
don’t fear the reputation hit.”
Yet Wilders took the rare step on Monday of apologizing to Frans Timmermans, a
former European Commission heavyweight and the leader of the GreenLabor-Left
ticket, after it emerged through the Dutch press that two PVV members of
parliament were behind a Facebook page spreading incendiary, AI-generated
depictions of him.
In one of the images, shown by Dutch daily De Volkskrant, Timmermans could be
seen being led away by police in handcuffs. In another, he had his hands on a
pile of money.
The party of far-right leader Geert Wilders, the Party for Freedom, came out on
top in its use of AI. | Laurens Van Putten/EPA
In Ireland, the fake video that saw Connolly announce her withdrawal from the
presidential election was branded by the candidate as a “disgraceful attempt to
mislead voters and undermine our democracy.”
Through a fake bulletin of Irish national broadcaster RTÉ, the video saw a
deepfake version of Connolly declaring: “It is with great regret that I announce
the withdrawal of my candidacy and the ending of my campaign,” with deepfake
versions of two well-known TV presenters validating the news and discussing the
impact.
Both Meta and Google-owned YouTube removed the Connolly video from their
platforms without specifying how long it had been online. The Irish left-wing
independent candidate won the election convincingly with 63 percent of the vote.
Depicting fictional events or attacking or discrediting other candidates are
only two ways in which AI-generated content is being deployed to sway minds.
Researchers also warn against a third, arguably more direct, method in which AI
could influence election outcomes: users asking AI chatbots who to vote for.
With a large majority of voters typically undecided until the final days of the
election, the Dutch data protection authority on Oct. 21 warned voters not to
ask AI chatbots for voting advice, since these give a “highly distorted and
polarized image of the Dutch political landscape.”
“Chatbots are full of mistakes,” said de Vreese, adding that “they attribute
various party positions to the wrong parties, and they also seem to have a kind
of a suction effect” in a specific political direction.
An experiment showed that chatbots favored the GreenLeft-Labour ticket for
voters on the left, while voters on the right were mainly directed to the
far-right PVV.
“People with a low literacy are particularly vulnerable to AI-generated
disinformation,” said Cools.
DISCLAIMER
Regulators in Brussels have made election integrity, AI risks and online
disinformation major priorities, a patchwork of ongoing efforts left them
watching as the elections played out.
As the technology to generate AI content and the platforms to distribute them is
mostly U.S.-based, all eyes are on Brussels for a bloc-wide response.
The EU’s powerful Digital Services Act puts some responsibility on platforms to
tackle risks to elections, and both Meta and Google have recognized generative
AI as a major risk factor — likely contributing to their decision to take down
the Connolly video.
But the requirements are driven mainly by concerns about misinformation, rather
than by efforts to regulate how European political parties use generative AI to
spread their messages.
Labeling is also a big part of the response, as required by a separate EU law
specific to artificial intelligence. Researchers at the University of Amsterdam
flagged that a majority of the posts they tracked for the Dutch election lacked
an AI-labeling disclaimer. For those who did, it was the platform that added it,
not the political parties.
More laws that could deal with the matter are on their way.
The European Commission is drafting guidance for so-called high-risk AI systems
that can pose a risk to people’s fundamental rights, which will enter into force
in August 2026 at the earliest. “These guidelines will include a section on AI
systems intended to influence election outcomes or referendums,” said Commission
spokesperson Thomas Regnier.
Developers of the most complex AI models, such as OpenAI’s GPT or Google’s
Gemini, have already had to comply with a series of obligations since August,
including mitigating “systemic risks” to democratic processes.
Next month, Brussels will unveil another proposal, meant to support EU countries
in upholding the fairness and integrity of election campaigns against foreign
manipulation and interference. That is not expected to contain any binding legal
requirements.
Eliza Gkritsi contributed reporting.
PARIS — Vladimir Putin’s shadow loomed large inside Paris’ bright,
light-wood-lined modern courthouse on the second day of the trial of four
Bulgarian men accused of conspiring to tag red handprints on the Paris Holocaust
memorial in a suspected Russian hybrid war operation.
The proceedings, which last until Friday, have pulled back the curtain on what
appears to be a modus operandi for Putin’s spooks, even if the Russian leader
was not mentioned by name.
“We are not fooled, we know where this comes from” the prosecutor leading the
case said — even if the four suspects were not, as she explained, “the best
Russian spies on Earth.”
Confidential background notes from the Direction Générale de la Sécurité
Intérieure, France’s domestic intelligence agency, partly cited in court and
seen by POLITICO, alleged that two of the suspects “received instructions in
Russian from unknown individuals via the encrypted messaging app Telegram.”
The fact that the group came all the way from Bulgaria for the tagging “confirms
intelligence according to which they are part of a broader operation to
destabilize public opinion,” the confidential notes read. And the French
government’s disinformation experts have traced amplification of the read hands
news reports by thousands of fake accounts linked to Russia.
According to background intelligence notes read out in court, the red hands
stunt follows the blueprint of typical hybrid war operations, where individuals
are hired and paid to “accomplish a mission at the behest of an intelligence
service” even if these so-called “proxies” do not know who is ultimately pulling
the strings.
“The hiring of these proxies takes place within a specific hierarchy, with an
intelligence officer at the top, with an intermediary usually based in a
satellite country, himself in touch with Russian speaking individuals hired via
social media and Telegram for paid missions,” according to the readout.
Russian proxies are also suspected in nine other similar cases currently being
investigated by French judges that seemed designed to exploit and deepen
societal fissures within the country.
DIVISION OF LABOR
The note seen by POLITICO accused Nikolay Ivanov, 42, and Mircho Angelov, 27, of
being “main organizers” and receiving marching orders via Telegram, with Ivanov
seen as the likely ringleader, “with higher hierarchical rank.”
Angelov, who remains at large, has been presented by the rest of the group as
the operation’s main organizer on the ground, handing over instructions as to
where to paint red hands during a two-night raid which culminated in the
defacing of the Shoah Memorial in the French capital’s old Jewish neighborhood.
Ivanov, a slim man who in court wore a sweatshirt, wasn’t in Paris for the raid
but admitted to paying hotel nights and bus tickets for the group — he said he
did it as a service to Angelov.
Ivanov was born in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region before the fall of the
Soviet Union, spent several years in Russia and was a member of a pro-Russian
paramilitary group, according to background research cited in court. He had in
the past “regular contacts with a pro-Russian activist arrested by Ukrainian
services in 2014 and a former high-ranking member of a Russian intelligence
service,” the judge said in court.
The proceedings, which last until Friday, have pulled back the curtain on what
appears to be a modus operandi for Putin’s spooks, even if the Russian leader
was not mentioned by name. | Contributor/Getty Images
Ivanov denied being pro-Russian and said he had no detailed knowledge of the red
hands operation when he booked travel on behalf of the group.
“I’m a pacifist,” he said.
PAID WORK
The other two suspects, Georgi Filipov, 36, and Kiril Milushev, 28, were casual
acquaintances of Angelov, whom they said offered them money in exchange for
their participation in an operation “for peace.”
Milushev said he initially accepted the offer to travel to Paris for
recreational purposes and was only enrolled to film the operation once on the
ground.
Filipov, who like Angelov bears large neo-Nazi tattoos on his chest, admitted to
tagging the Holocaust memorial with Angelov and dropping coffins near the Eiffel
Tower in a subsequent operation, but said he only accepted for financial reasons
as he was strapped for cash and needed to pay child support — he received €1,000
for the tagging operation.
Shortly after the Paris trip, three members of the group traveled to Germany and
Switzerland, where they are suspected of having participated in other hybrid war
operations, knowingly or not.
In France, the men are only formally accused for their role in defacing the
monument and suspected antisemitic motives. All three men accepted
responsibility for the first charge but denied the latter.
France only recently beefed up its legal arsenal against foreign interference
and created ad hoc, tougher penalties for violence “committed at the behest of a
foreign power.”
Those laws were adopted last year after the government began officially pointing
to Russia as the orchestrator of a series of high-profile stunts designed to sow
chaos in France.
The prosecutor nonetheless called for the judges to take into account the
hostile intent and organized character of the operation when asking them to hand
four-year prison sentences to Ivanov and Angelov, and two-year sentences to
Filipov and Milushev.
PARIS — Suspected Russian proxies standing trial for defacing the Paris
Holocaust Museum with red paint last year later traveled to Germany and
Switzerland, where French investigators suspect they might have been involved in
other provocative acts.
Four Bulgarian men went on trial in a Paris court on Wednesday, accused of
participating in tagging the museum and dozens of other Parisian buildings with
red hand impressions. The prosecution suspects the May 2024 raid was part of
Moscow’s undeclared but multi-faceted hybrid war on the continent.
Of the four suspects, Mircho Angelov, 27, is on the run, while Nikolay Ivanov,
42, was arrested in Croatia last year and was extradited. Police investigation
documents cited in court alleged they had “received instructions in Russian via
Telegram.”
According to information provided by the Bulgarian authorities, also cited in
court, Angelov and a third suspect, Kiril Milushev, 28, traveled to Germany
shortly after the Paris operation. The French prosecutor noted that the Munich
grave of Stepan Bandera, a nationalist Ukrainian politician active in the 1930s
and 1940s, had been tagged around the same time. Citing intelligence shared by a
foreign country, he asked whether the Paris raid suspects had been involved.
Milushev dismissed the theory as “absurd.” Dressed in a white shirt and sporting
a light beard, he admitted to having visited Germany with Angelov but said they
had gone there to buy a second-hand car.
Milushev also admitted to traveling to Switzerland with Ivanov, who didn’t deny
the trip. The latter didn’t visit Paris but paid for hotel rooms for the three
others and for their flights back to Sofia after the Holocaust Museum was
defaced.
The Swiss trip came ahead of a high-level Ukraine summit in the country.
“We were meant to put [up] stickers [for peace] but we didn’t do it,” Milushev
said.
Ivanov acknowledged paying for the Paris trip of the other three suspects, but
said he had done so as a favor to Angelov, who later paid him back.
But according to the judge, intelligence shared by a foreign country points to
Ivanov as a likely “hiring party for proxies” involved in Russian hybrid war
operations.
Ivanov said he had only wanted to help Angelov and described himself as “a
pacifist.”
The fourth suspect, Georgi Filipov, 36, is also being investigated in another
case of suspected Russian interference, in which coffins bearing the words
“French soldiers of Ukraine” were left near the Eiffel Tower. In court, Filipov
admitted to having transported the coffins but said he had been unaware of how
they would be used. He also expressed regret for the defacing of the Holocaust
Museum.
The trial, which continues Thursday and Friday, offers a rare window into
Russia’s suspected hybrid war operations across Europe and the links between the
multiple cases of possible foreign interference that are currently under
investigation.
BRUSSELS — Montenegro wants the EU’s help in fighting Russian disinformation as
the Balkan nation moves toward membership of the bloc.
The small country, which has set an ambitious goal to join the EU by 2028, is
increasingly a target for disinformation from those hoping to disrupt its
membership bid, Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović told POLITICO in an
exclusive interview in Brussels.
“I’m very much hoping that in the future we would be getting bigger support from
the EU to really fight disinformation and misinformation,” Milatović said,
adding he had pitched the idea to EU policymakers and member countries.
Moldova, another EU candidate country, has been a favorite target of the
Kremlin’s meddling, including vote-buying and disinformation. That led the EU to
deploy last month its new cyber reserve — a team of private-sector cybersecurity
experts — to Chişinǎu and allocate millions in funding for a hub to fight
disinformation.
Milatović, who was in Brussels to meet with European Council President António
Costa, said “malign influence from third countries” could pose a risk to
Montenegro’s accession, and urged the EU to be proactive in countering such
threats.
“Sometimes, I feel that pro-European politicians in the region of the Western
Balkans are a bit left alone by the partners in the EU,” he said, adding that he
encountered disinformation “on a daily basis.”
‘END OF THE RACE’
Montenegro applied to join the EU in 2008 and was granted candidate status in
2010. It has closed seven of 33 accession chapters since then and is on track to
close five more by December, a senior Montenegrin diplomat confirmed to
POLITICO.
With a population of 600,000, the tiny Adriatic nation has sought to position
itself as the obvious next member of the 27-nation bloc. But it faces potential
obstacles, including pro-Serb parties in its parliament, tensions with
neighboring Croatia and skepticism in some corners of the EU about enlargement.
Tellingly, the issue is not even on the agenda of next week’s European Council
summit.
French President Emmanuel Macron called in 2023 for the EU to reform itself
before letting in new members. But Milatović said that behind closed doors,
Macron had come around to the idea of Montenegro’s membership.
“I believe that two years ago, before President Macron started speaking with me,
he had … one opinion,” Milatović said. “After so many discussions that I had
with him,” however, Macron was now “optimistic … about Montenegro’s position in
the EU.”
“And I believe this is the case also with all the other EU leaders,” Milatović
added. “Montenegro is now perceived as a front-runner. But … I do want to see
the end of the race, in a sense.”
Another potential sticking point is the country’s reliance on Russian tourists
and investors. Montenegro has yet to introduce visas for Russians, who can enter
the country visa-free for 30 days, and Russians remain the largest foreign
investors.
“What we are trying to do is sort of postpone it [visas] as much as we can, so
that we still keep our tourism sector alive,” Milatović said, adding he was
“absolutely” concerned by the influx of Russian cash. “We are a bit in a vacuum
now because … we don’t have full access to EU funds.” That said, Montenegro will
align its visa regime with the EU “very soon,” he said.
Ultimately, while much of the onus is on Podgorica to unite its political forces
and deliver promised reforms, the EU also needs to prove “enlargement is alive”
and “reforms pay off,” Milatović warned.
“The last country that entered was Croatia more than 10 years ago. And in the
meantime, the United Kingdom left,” Milatović said. “So this is why I believe
that now is the time to revive the process, to also revive a bit the idea of the
EU as a club that still has a gravity toward it.”
The U.S. State Department declined to comment on a report it could sanction EU
officials over the bloc’s Digital Services Act, which the Trump administration
has labeled “censorship.”
The administration and some of its allies in the tech sector have launched
various attacks on the DSA, the EU’s flagship social media platform regulation,
calling it “Orwellian.” The U.S. government also claims that aspects of the DSA
would impose costs on domestic companies.
Reuters reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources, that sanctions are being
considered in the form of visa restrictions, and that U.S. officials conducted
internal meetings on the topic last week.
POLITICO could not independently verify all the information in the Reuters
report. Responding to a request for clarification from POLITICO, a State
Department spokesperson said Monday: “We are monitoring increasing censorship in
Europe with great concern but have no further information to provide at this
time.”
Reuters did not identify which EU or member country officials could find
themselves in the firing line, and said no final decision on going ahead with
the measures has been made.
The Digital Services Act regulates online platforms, like social media and
e-commerce, as well as search engines. Those with more than 45 million users in
the EU, including Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, TikTok and X, have to follow
strict rules about assessing and mitigating important risks, like the spread of
misinformation and harm to minors.
Concessions from the EU on the DSA, which the White House was reportedly pushing
for, did not materialize in the EU-U.S. trade deal. | Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
But U.S. Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance, have said the law
institutionalizes a censorship regime that stifles free speech.
The State Department has launched a campaign against the regulation. The
spokesperson noted that in May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio introduced visa
restrictions to bar “foreign nationals who censor Americans” from entering the
country.
The European Commission is in charge of implementing the regulation on very
large platforms, with national regulators taking responsibility for their
respective countries.
Concessions from the EU on the DSA, which the White House was reportedly pushing
for, did not materialize in the EU-U.S. trade deal.
The European Commission and several national regulators did not immediately
respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.
Joe Stanley-Smith and Alice Taylor contributed to this report.
LONDON — Britain’s flagship Online Safety Act has “major holes” and won’t
protect against future outbreaks of public disorder fueled by misinformation,
according to a report out today from the Science, Innovation and Technology
Committee.
Last July three young girls were killed in a knife attack in Southport and
fast-spreading misinformation about the attacker fueled riots in the U.K. At
that point the Online Safety Act was not yet in force, but the committee’s
report says it “would have made little difference” if it had been, as it’s
lacking in any meaningful enforcement powers against misinformation.
The Act is still not fully in force yet and is being implemented in stages, with
the next major milestone coming on July 25, when in-scope service providers will
need to take extra steps to protect children online or risk penalties.
Now, even before the Act has been fully implemented, the committee is reopening
a debate on legislating against “harmful but legal” content.
Earlier drafts of the Online Safety Act imposed a duty on platforms to tackle
material deemed “legal but harmful” to adults, but these provisions were
stripped out of the bill under the previous Conservative government amid
concerns about freedom of speech, to the dismay of online safety campaigners.
Committee chair and Labour MP Chi Onwurah insisted that the report’s call for
the government to essentially return to the drawing board doesn’t mean reopening
the same can of worms on online safety versus freedom of expression.
“We have seen on the streets of Sunderland and Hartlepool and Southport the
physical realization of the consequences of online misinformation, and I think
that has truly concentrated the issue in people’s minds,” she told POLITICO in
an interview.
The Act barely deals with misleading content, yet “ministers were reaching for
[it] and saying it would address the terrible scenes we saw on the streets of
this country over [last] summer,” Onwurah said, a case of “expecting something
from Ofcom it wasn’t going to deliver.”
The media regulator conceded in April that even the new False Communications
Offence introduced by the Act “will not be easy for a company to identify,” and
many legal experts have said the threshold is too high for charges to be
successfully brought.
CONFUSION PLUS BIG TECH LOBBYING
Part of the problem with the Online Safety Act as it currently stands is that it
lacks “principles-based regulation,” Onwurah said, leading to confusion and
contradiction between regulators and the government.
The Act “wasn’t based on clear principles. It took seven years to thrash out
different issues without establishing what [the] principles are,” she said.
Lobbying by Big Tech probably hasn’t helped either, Onwurah said: “We didn’t get
a clear response [from Ofcom] in terms of how many times Ofcom has met with Big
Tech companies as opposed to how many times they’ve met with user and consumer
advocacy groups.”
Committee chair and Labour MP Chi Onwurah insisted that the report’s call for
the government to essentially return to the drawing board doesn’t mean reopening
the same can of worms on online safety versus freedom of expression. | Facundo
Arrizabalaga/EPA
Technology Secretary Peter Kyle has also come under fire from campaigners in
recent months for appearing too cosy with Big Tech. The government is starting
to recognize that it “hasn’t always been listening to the diversity of voices it
needs to,” Onwurah said.
“If you’re only listening to what Big Tech says, you will be told ‘it’s not
possible to do this, it’s not possible to regulate that, it’s not possible to
deprioritize harmful content,’” she said.
One of the committee’s recommendations is that the government should compel
platforms to “algorithmically demote” fact-checked misinformation “where it has
the potential to cause significant harm.”
Onwurah said she was optimistic the government would sit up and listen given the
strength of public feeling.
“Ultimately, political will has its legitimate roots in the views and interests
of working people in this country.”