LONDON — Reza Pahlavi was in the United States as a student in 1979 when his father, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in a revolution. He has not set foot inside Iran since, though his monarchist supporters have never stopped believing that one day their “crown prince” will return.  As anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people, despite an internet blackout and an increasingly brutal crackdown, that day may just be nearing.   Pahlavi’s name is on the lips of many protesters, who chant that they want the “shah” back. Even his critics — and there are plenty who oppose a return of the monarchy — now concede that Pahlavi may prove to be the only figure with the profile required to oversee a transition.  The global implications of the end of the Islamic Republic and its replacement with a pro-Western democratic government would be profound, touching everything from the Gaza crisis to the wars in Ukraine and Yemen, to the oil market.  Over the course of three interviews in the past 12 months in London, Paris and online, Pahlavi told POLITICO how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be overthrown. He set out the steps needed to end half a century of religious dictatorship and outlined his own proposal to lead a transition to secular democracy. Nothing is guaranteed, and even Pahlavi’s team cannot be sure that this current wave of protests will take down the regime, never mind bring him to power. But if it does, the following is an account of Pahlavi’s roadmap for revolution and his blueprint for a democratic future.  POPULAR UPRISING  Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran, and in his interview with POLITICO last February he made it clear he wanted foreign powers to focus on supporting Iranians to move against their rulers rather than intervening militarily from the outside.  “People are already on the streets with no help. The economic situation is to a point where our currency devaluation, salaries can’t be paid, people can’t even afford a kilo of potatoes, never mind meat,” he said. “We need more and more sustained protests.” Over the past two weeks, the spiraling cost of living and economic mismanagement have indeed helped fuel the protest wave. The biggest rallies in years have filled the streets, despite attempts by the authorities to intimidate opponents through violence and by cutting off communications. Pahlavi has sought to encourage foreign financial support for workers who will disrupt the state by going on strike. He also called for more Starlink internet terminals to be shipped into Iran, in defiance of a ban, to make it harder for the regime to stop dissidents from communicating and coordinating their opposition. Amid the latest internet shutdowns, Starlink has provided the opposition movements with a vital lifeline. As the protests gathered pace last week, Pahlavi stepped up his own stream of social media posts and videos, which gain many millions of views, encouraging people onto the streets. He started by calling for demonstrations to begin at 8 p.m. local time, then urged protesters to start earlier and occupy city centers for longer. His supporters say these appeals are helping steer the protest movement. Reza Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran. | Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA The security forces have brutally crushed many of these gatherings. The Norway-based Iranian Human Rights group puts the number of dead at 648, while estimating that more than 10,000 people have been arrested. It’s almost impossible to know how widely Pahlavi’s message is permeating nationwide, but footage inside Iran suggests the exiled prince’s words are gaining some traction with demonstrators, with increasing images of the pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag appearing at protests, and crowds chanting “javid shah” — the eternal shah. DEFECTORS Understandably, given his family history, Pahlavi has made a study of revolutions and draws on the collapse of the Soviet Union to understand how the Islamic Republic can be overthrown. In Romania and Czechoslovakia, he said, what was required to end Communism was ultimately “maximum defections” among people inside the ruling elites, military and security services who did not want to “go down with the sinking ship.”  “I don’t think there will ever be a successful civil disobedience movement without the tacit collaboration or non-intervention of the military,” he said during an interview last February.  There are multiple layers to Iran’s machinery of repression, including the hated Basij militia, but the most powerful and feared part of its security apparatus is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pahlavi argued that top IRGC commanders who are “lining their pockets” — and would remain loyal to Khamenei — did not represent the bulk of the organization’s operatives, many of whom “can’t pay rent and have to take a second job at the end of their shift.”  “They’re ultimately at some point contemplating their children are in the streets protesting … and resisting the regime. And it’s their children they’re called on to shoot. How long is that tenable?” Pahlavi’s offer to those defecting is that they will be granted an amnesty once the regime has fallen. He argues that most of the people currently working in the government and military will need to remain in their roles to provide stability once Khamenei has been thrown out, in order to avoid hollowing out the administration and creating a vacuum — as happened after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.  Only the hardline officials at the top of the regime in Tehran should expect to face punishment.  In June, Pahlavi announced he and his team were setting up a secure portal for defectors to register their support for overthrowing the regime, offering an amnesty to those who sign up and help support a popular uprising. By July, he told POLITICO, 50,000 apparent regime defectors had used the system.  His team are now wary of making claims regarding the total number of defectors, beyond saying “tens of thousands” have registered. These have to be verified, and any regime trolls or spies rooted out. But Pahlavi’s allies say a large number of new defectors made contact via the portal as the protests gathered pace in recent days.  REGIME CHANGE In his conversations with POLITICO last year, Pahlavi insisted he didn’t want the United States or Israel to get involved directly and drive out the supreme leader and his lieutenants. He always said the regime would be destroyed by a combination of fracturing from within and pressure from popular unrest.  He’s also been critical of the reluctance of European governments to challenge the regime and of their preference to continue diplomatic efforts, which he has described as appeasement. European powers, especially France, Germany and the U.K., have historically had a significant role in managing the West’s relations with Iran, notably in designing the 2015 nuclear deal that sought to limit Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.  But Pahlavi’s allies want more support and vocal condemnation from Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. He ordered American military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, as part of Israel’s 12-day war, action that many analysts and Pahlavi’s team agree leaves the clerical elite and its vast security apparatus weaker than ever.  U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. | Pool photo by Bonnie Cash via EPA Pahlavi remains in close contact with members of the Trump administration, as well as other governments including in Germany, France and the U.K. He has met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio several times and said he regards him as “the most astute and understanding” holder of that office when it comes to Iran since the 1979 revolution.  In recent days Trump has escalated his threats to intervene, including potentially through more military action if Iran’s rulers continue their crackdown and kill large numbers of protesters.  On the weekend Pahlavi urged Trump to follow through. “Mr President,” he posted on X Sunday. “Your words of solidarity have given Iranians the strength to fight for freedom,” he said. “Help them liberate themselves and Make Iran Great Again!” THE CARETAKER KING  In June Pahlavi announced he was ready to replace Khamenei’s administration to lead the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.   “Once the regime collapses, we have to have a transitional government as quickly as possible,” he told POLITICO last year. He proposed that a constitutional conference should be held among Iranian representatives to devise a new settlement, to be ratified by the people in a referendum.  The day after that referendum is held, he told POLITICO in February, “that’s the end of my mission in life.”  Asked if he wanted to see a monarchy restored, he said in June: “Democratic options should be on the table. I’m not going to be the one to decide that. My role however is to make sure that no voice is left behind. That all opinions should have the chance to argue their case — it doesn’t matter if they are republicans or monarchists, it doesn’t matter if they’re on the left of center or the right.”  One option he hasn’t apparently excluded might be to restore a permanent monarchy, with a democratically elected government serving in his name.  Pahlavi says he has three clear principles for establishing a new democracy: protecting Iran’s territorial integrity; a secular democratic system that separates religion from the government; and “every principle of human rights incorporated into our laws.” He confirmed to POLITICO that this would include equality and protection against discrimination for all citizens, regardless of their sexual or religious orientation.  COME-BACK CAPITALISM  Over the past year, Pahlavi has been touring Western capitals meeting politicians as well as senior business figures and investors from the world of banking and finance. Iran is a major OPEC oil producer and has the second biggest reserves of natural gas in the world, “which could supply Europe for a long time to come,” he said.  “Iran is the most untapped reserve for foreign investment,” Pahlavi said in February. “If Silicon Valley was to commit for a $100 billion investment, you could imagine what sort of impact that could have. The sky is the limit.”  What he wants to bring about, he says, is a “democratic culture” — even more than any specific laws that stipulate forms of democratic government. He pointed to Iran’s past under the Pahlavi monarchy, saying his grandfather remains a respected figure as a modernizer.  “If it becomes an issue of the family, my grandfather today is the most revered political figure in the architect of modern Iran,” he said in February. “Every chant of the streets of ‘god bless his soul.’ These are the actual slogans people chant on the street as they enter or exit a soccer stadium. Why? Because the intent was patriotic, helping Iran come out of the dark ages. There was no aspect of secular modern institutions from a postal system to a modern army to education which was in the hands of the clerics.”   Pahlavi’s father, the shah, brought in an era of industrialization and economic improvement alongside greater freedom for women, he said. “This is where the Gen Z of Iran is,” he said. “Regardless of whether I play a direct role or not, Iranians are coming out of the tunnel.”  Conversely, many Iranians still associate his father’s regime with out-of-touch elites and the notorious Savak secret police, whose brutality helped fuel the 1979 revolution. NOT SO FAST  Nobody can be sure what happens next in Iran. It may still come down to Trump and perhaps Israel.  Anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people. | Neil Hall/EPA Plenty of experts don’t believe the regime is finished, though it is clearly weakened. Even if the protests do result in change, many say it seems more likely that the regime will use a mixture of fear tactics and adaptation to protect itself rather than collapse or be toppled completely.  While reports suggest young people have led the protests and appear to have grown in confidence, recent days have seen a more ferocious regime response, with accounts of hospitals being overwhelmed with shooting victims. The demonstrations could still be snuffed out by a regime with a capacity for violence.  The Iranian opposition remains hugely fragmented, with many leading activists in prison. The substantial diaspora has struggled to find a unity of voice, though Pahlavi tried last year to bring more people on board with his own movement.  Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iran should do better than reviving a “failed” monarchy. She added she was unsure how wide Pahlavi’s support really was inside the country. Independent, reliable polling is hard to find and memories of the darker side of the shah’s era run deep. But the exiled prince’s advantage now may be that there is no better option to oversee the collapse of the clerics and map out what comes next. “Pahlavi has name recognition and there is no other clear individual to turn to,” Vakil said. “People are willing to listen to his comments calling on them to go out in the streets.”

The main rival to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is incarcerated in a high-security prison just outside Istanbul, but that’s not stopping him from vowing to win the presidency from his cell. In written replies to questions from POLITICO, the democratically elected Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu struck a defiant tone from the notorious Silivri jail, and insisted he was still the legitimate electoral candidate who could end Erdoğan’s 25-year dominance of Turkish politics. The popular mayor’s arrest last March triggered massive nationwide protests and international condemnation. Turkey’s opposition views his imprisonment as a politically motivated maneuver by Erdoğan, an Islamist populist strongman, to remove his most effective secular opponent in the NATO nation of 88 million people. The 55-year-old, who faces a potential jail term of more than 2,300 years, replied via his lawyers and political advisers to a series of questions sent by POLITICO. The rare remarks signal İmamoğlu is confident in the groundswell of his support and is determined to remain a political force from behind bars. “What we are living through today is not a genuine legal process; it is a strategy of political siege,” he wrote. “President Erdoğan’s aim is not only to shape the next election. It is to erase my candidacy now and in the future, and to push me completely out of politics. The reason is clear: They know that in a free and fair election, I can defeat President Erdoğan at the ballot box, and they are trying to prevent that.” POLITICAL TIDE TURNS The sweeping crackdown against İmamoğlu — along with many other mayors from the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) — came amid signs that the country’s political tide was shifting dramatically to the secularists. The Islamists were defeated by an unexpectedly high margin in municipal elections in 2024, and the authorities moved to charge İmamoğlu on multiple counts, just as he was about to be nominated as the CHP’s official presidential candidate. Despite his detention, more than 15 million Turks still voted in a CHP primary to name him as the official challenger — a highly symbolic public outpouring, as he was the only candidate. İmamoğlu and members of his team were charged with corruption, extortion, bribery, money laundering and even espionage. The sheer scale of the case revealed its weakness, İmamoğlu explained. He complained of “1,300 inspections at Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality that produced no concrete findings; a 3,900-page indictment based largely on rumors and witnesses whose credibility is contested; a demand for prison sentences totaling up to 2,352 years; and a maximum trial duration set at 4,600 days.” The next election isn’t expected until 2028, but İmamoğlu is still seen as posing a particular risk. He has defeated Erdoğan’s party allies in Istanbul mayoral elections three times; crucially, his party won in traditionalist, religious quarters of Turkey’s biggest city, which the Islamists had long seen as their political bastions. Erdoğan himself used the mayoral office in Istanbul as a springboard to win national power years ago. FIGUREHEAD BEHIND BARS Despite his incarceration, İmamoğlu continues to campaign online through platforms like X, Instagram and TikTok, with help from his team. According to Soner Çağaptay, İmamoğlu has little chance of being allowed to take on Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a free and fair race. | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images But can a candidate really run a serious presidential campaign from prison, while Erdoğan controls all the vital levers of state? İmamoğlu’s main campaign account on X, which has nearly 10 million followers, was blocked in Turkey in May. The incarcerated mayor fully acknowledges the limits imposed on him but insists a campaign without his physical presence or podium speeches can succeed. “What defines a campaign is its ideas, its values, and the shared will of citizens. We have all of these on our side … Everyone is aware that my arrest is unjust. Even a significant portion of Justice and Development Party (AK Party) voters consider my detention unfair and see it as a grave blow to justice,” he wrote. He also stressed the importance of the CHP primary in demonstrating the swell of popular support for him beyond the traditional party base. “The presidential primary on March 23, 2025 demonstrated this clearly. Although I was detained, around 15.5 million citizens voted to support my candidacy. Only 2 million of that number were CHP members; the other 13.5 million came from every segment of society,” he explained. “The campaign launched by my party to demand trial without detention and early elections has gathered 25.1 million signatures. All of this reflects a demand that transcends party lines: a demand for justice, merit, and dignity.” Yet the legal fate of his candidacy now rests with a judiciary that has a poor record of independence. Last February, Istanbul’s chief prosecutor’s office opened an investigation alleging that İmamoğlu’s diploma from Istanbul University had been forged; one day before his arrest, the university annulled the diploma. Under Turkey’s constitution, presidential candidates must be over 40 and hold a university degree. Another hearing is expected later this month. According to Soner Çağaptay, an expert on Turkey at the Washington Institute think tank, İmamoğlu has little chance of being allowed to take on Erdoğan in a free and fair race, as the president will use the advantages of incumbency and state institutions to block his candidacy, stigmatize him and weaken support for the CHP. “Even though İmamoğlu can declare his candidacy virtually from a jail cell, there is no way this will be legally allowed — because for Erdoğan this would be a mortal political threat if this were a free and fairly contested race,” he said. FOREIGN POLICY FLOP In his responses, İmamoğlu took aim at Erdoğan’s “aggressive” foreign policy and his close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, linking both to the erosion of rights at home. İmamoğlu took aim at Erdoğan’s close relationship with Donald Trump. | Pool photo by Evan Vucci via Getty Images “It is clear that President Trump’s presidency has opened a turbulent era … Diplomacy has increasingly shifted from institutions to leader-to-leader dealings, squeezed between rapid bargains and gestures that rarely lead anywhere,” he wrote. He argued Erdoğan was seeking the legitimacy he had lost domestically in Washington, but questioned whether Ankara was really getting what it wanted. “We must ask what the concrete gains of this alleged success are. Despite claims that relations with Washington are improving, Türkiye still has not returned to the F-35 [U.S. stealth fighter] program and [associated] sanctions have not been lifted,” he wrote. “Our neighbor Greece continues, in violation of agreements, to militarize the Aegean islands. The alliance among Greece, Israel, and Southern Cyprus against Türkiye strengthens and extends steadily. Israel is pursuing provocative policies towards Kurds in various regional countries. The Gaza peace plan, struck with a ‘real-estate-dealer mentality,’ has still not ended Palestinians’ suffering and hunger. What is the government doing in response?” he asked. İmamoğlu also insisted that Erdoğan’s security-driven policy had narrowed the space for democratic politics at home. “Fundamental rights are restricted, pressure is placed on elected officials, and media and civil society are silenced, justified by ‘security’ and geopolitical importance. Over time, the idea that freedoms can be pushed aside ‘for stability’ becomes normalized.” If elected president, İmamoğlu said, rebuilding ties with Europe would be one of his top priorities, alongside fulfilling the democratic criteria to be a candidate EU member. “As the CHP, our goal of full EU membership remains intact. In the short term, we will work to modernize the Customs Union to include services, agriculture, public procurement and digital trade, and to align with European standards,” he wrote. MISSING THE CITY İmamoğlu said he is maintaining a strict routine in prison despite the bleak short-term prospects. He writes, reads and follows the news as closely as possible — not only for personal resilience, but out of a sense of public duty. “That responsibility does not end at the prison gate … I am treated within the official framework, but I believe detention should never be normalized in a democracy. Especially when it is used as a tool of political containment. The issue is not the conditions, but the principle: Detention and prolonged legal uncertainty must not become instruments of politics.” What he misses most is his family; his wife Dilek, his children, parents and friends. A large share of visitation requests are rejected without justification. “I also miss the ordinary rhythm of the city, walking freely in the street, direct contact with people, and sharing unplanned moments,” he wrote. He added that he keeps up his strength, knowing he is still part of a democratic movement larger than his personal circumstances. “That is what truly determines everything, not the walls around me.”

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran’s government on Friday that Washington was “locked and loaded” and ready to intervene if the authorities kill protesters in nationwide demonstrations against the clerical regime’s economic mismanagement. Trump’s threat of U.S. intervention comes six months after American forces attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, and the president began the week by saying he would back an Israeli attack on Iran if the country rebuilt its atomic capabilities. “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network. Ali Shamkhani, political adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned Trump to back off. “The people of Iran are well acquainted with the experience of Americans coming to the rescue, from Iraq and Afghanistan to Gaza. Any hand of intervention that approaches Iranian security with pretexts will be severed by a regret-inducing response. Iran’s national security is a red line, not fodder for adventurist tweets,” Shamkhani wrote on X. Protests have been taking place in several Iranian cities since December 28, driven by people angered by soaring living costs and opposition to the country’s clerical regime. Local media reported six or seven deaths.

BRUSSELS — Wednesday’s election in the Netherlands should surely go down as one of the best days Europe’s centrists have enjoyed in years. Geert Wilders, the far-right populist who touted leaving the EU on his way to a shock victory in the 2023 election, lost nearly a third of his voters after 11 chaotic months for his Party for Freedom (PVV) in coalition.  At the same time, the fervently pro-European liberal Rob Jetten surged in the final days of the campaign and stands a good chance of becoming prime minister. At 38, he would be the youngest person to hold the office since World War II and the first openly gay candidate ever to do so.  “Many in the Brussels bubble will welcome the rise of a mainstream, pro-governing and reform-oriented party,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity because the subject is politically sensitive. “The Dutch have a lot to contribute to the EU.” But even as they exhale with relief at the end of the Wilders interlude, the inhabitants of Europe’s dominant liberal center-ground — those Brussels officials, diplomats and ministers who run the EU show — would be well advised not to celebrate too hard. If previous years are any guide, the final shape of the next government and its policy plans will not become clear for months. Who knows what will have happened in Ukraine, the Middle East, or in Donald Trump’s trade war with China in that time? “It is essential for European cooperation that a new government is stable and able to make bold decisions, given the current geopolitical challenges that Europe is facing,” the same diplomat said. Even when the new coalition finally begins its work, this election should worry Europe’s liberal centrists almost as much as it delights them. JETTEN INTO EUROPE  Jetten’s Democracy 66 party has never done so well at a Dutch election: Assuming he gets the job he wants, he’ll be the party’s first prime minister. This week he told POLITICO he wanted to move the Netherlands closer to the EU.  Last night, officials in Brussels privately welcomed the prospect of the Dutch and their highly regarded diplomats returning to their historic place at the center of EU affairs, after two years in which they lost some influence. It was always going to be tough for the outgoing PM Dick Schoof, a 68-year-old technocrat, to follow the long-serving Mark Rutte, an EU star who now runs NATO. Domestic divisions made his job even harder.  But pro-European spirits also rose because the disruptive Wilders had wanted to keep the EU at arm’s length. Jetten’s position could hardly be more different. In fact, he sounds like an EU federalist’s dream.  “We want to stop saying ‘no’ by default, and start saying ‘yes’ to doing more together,” Jetten told POLITICO this week. “I cannot stress enough how dire Europe’s situation will be if we do not integrate further.”  STAYING DUTCH In Brussels, officials expect the next Dutch administration to maintain the same broad outlook on core policies: restraint on the EU’s long-term budget; cracking down on migration; boosting trade and competitiveness; and supporting Ukraine, alongside stronger common defense. One area where things could get complicated is climate policy. Jetten is committed to climate action and may end up in a power-sharing deal with GreenLeft-Labor, which was led at this election by former EU Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans.  How any government that Jetten leads balances climate action with improving economic growth will be key to policy discussions in Brussels. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been trimming climate measures amid center-right complaints that they are expensive for consumers and businesses. But she wants to secure backing for new targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.  Elsewhere, housing and migration — two areas often linked by far-right politicians — were central issues in the Dutch campaign. Both will continue to feature on the EU’s agenda, too.  For many watching the results unfold in Brussels, the biggest concerns are practical: Will the next Dutch government be more stable than the last one? And how long will it take to for the coalition to form? Seven months passed between the last election in November 2023 and Schoof taking office as prime minister in July 2024. “This is a historic election result because we’ve shown not only to the Netherlands but also to the world that it’s possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements,” Jetten told his supporters. “I’m very eager to cooperate with other parties to start an ambitious coalition as soon as possible.”  WILDERS Beneath the rare good news of a pro-European triumph and a far-right failure lurk more worrying trends for EU centrists.  First of all, there’s the sheer volatility of the result. Most voters apparently made up their minds at the last moment.  Wilders went from winning the popular vote and taking 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch lower house in 2023 to a projected 26 seats this time. Jetten’s D66 party, meanwhile, went from just nine seats two years ago to a projected 26, according to a preliminary forecast by the Dutch news agency ANP. The center-right Christian Democratic Appeal took just five seats in 2023 but now stands to win 18, according to the forecast. With swings this wild, anything could happen next time. Most major parties say they won’t work with Wilders in coalition now, making Jetten the more likely new PM if the projections hold. But Wilders says he is a long way from finished. “You won’t be rid of me until I’m 80,” the 62 year-old told supporters. In fact, Wilders might find a period in opposition — free from the constraints and compromises required in government — the perfect place to resume his inflammatory campaigns against Islam, immigration and the EU.  Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage had all been written off before storming back into their respective political front lines. “We had hoped for a different outcome, but we stood our ground,” Wilders wrote on X. “We are more determined than ever.”  TIMM’S UP  The other cloud on the pro-European horizon is the fate of Timmermans.  His center-left ticket was expected to do well and had been polling second behind Wilders’ Freedom Party in the months before the vote. But per the preliminary forecast, GreenLeft-Labor will fall from 25 seats to 20. Timmermans — who also stood in 2023 — resigned as leader.  It wasn’t just a defeat for the party, but also in some ways for Brussels. Timmermans had served as the European Commission’s executive vice president during von der Leyen’s first term, and was seen by some, especially his opponents, as a creation of the EU bubble.  Others point to the fact the center-left is struggling across Europe.  “It’s clear that I, for whatever reason, couldn’t convince people to vote for us,” Timmermans said. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the lead of our movement to the next generation.” Jetten’s pro-Europeanism could also come back to haunt him by the time of the next election. If he fails to deliver miracles to back up his optimistic pitch to voters, his Euroskeptic opponents have a ready-made argument for what went wrong. Recent history in the Netherlands, and elsewhere, suggests they won’t be afraid to use it.  Eva Hartog, Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck and Max Griera contributed reporting.

On Wednesday evening, Emily Cleary, a 47-year-old journalist and public relations consultant from Buckinghamshire in the U.K., was sitting watching TV with her 12-year-old son when she got a BBC alert that Charlie Kirk had been shot. She’d never heard of him, but she soon gathered from the coverage that he was associated with President Donald Trump. “You might have seen him, Mummy,” her son insisted. “He’s the man on TikTok with the round face who shouts all the time.” He began filling her in on a long, detailed list of Kirk’s views. “He thinks that if a 10-year-old gets pregnant she should be forced to keep it,” he explained. In the U.S., Kirk was a well-known figure on both sides of the political spectrum thanks to his proximity to the Trump family and profiles in outlets such as POLITICO Magazine and The New York Times Magazine. On the other side of the Atlantic, a schism appeared this week between those perplexed at why Prime Minister Keir Starmer was making statements about a seemingly obscure American podcaster, and those who already viewed him as a celebrity. Debates about the activist’s legacy sprung up in online spaces not usually known for politics, such as Facebook groups intended for sharing Love Island memes or soccer fan communities on X, with some people saying they will “miss his straight talking.” Parents of teens were surprised to find themselves being educated by their children on an issue of apparent international political importance. To some, this was all the more bewildering given the U.K. offshoot of Kirk’s Turning Point was widely mocked as a huge failure when it tried launching at British universities. But Emily’s son learned about Kirk somewhere else: TikTok’s “for you” page. “He hadn’t just seen a few videos, he was very knowledgeable about everything he believed,” she said, adding that her son “didn’t agree with Kirk but thought he seemed like a nice guy.” “It really unnerved me that he knew more about this person’s ideas than I did.” Kirk first rose to prominence in the U.S. when he cofounded Turning Point USA in 2012. It aimed to challenge what it saw as the dominance of liberal culture on American campuses, establishing a network of conservative activists at schools across the country. Kirk built Turning Point into a massive grassroots operation that has chapters on more than 800 campuses, and some journalists have attributed Trump’s 2024 reelection in part to the group’s voter outreach in Arizona and Wisconsin. But across the pond, Turning Point UK stumbled. Formed in 2019, it initially drew praise from figures on the right of the U.K.’s then-ruling Conservative party, such as former member of parliament Jacob Rees-Mogg and current shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel. However, the official launch on Feb. 1 of that year quickly descended into farce: Its X account was unverified, leading student activists from around the country to set up hundreds of satirical accounts. Media post-mortems concluded the organization failed to capture the mood of U.K. politics. The British hard right tends to fall into two categories: the aristocratic eccentricity of Rees-Mogg, or rough-and-ready street-based movements led by figures such as former soccer hooligan (and Elon Musk favorite) Tommy Robinson. Turning Point USA — known for its highly-produced events full of strobe lights, pyrotechnics and thundering music — was too earnest, too flashy, too American. And although U.K. universities tend to be left-leaning, Kirk’s claim that colleges are “islands of totalitarianism” that curtail free speech didn’t seem to resonate with U.K. students like it did with some in the U.S. “For those interested in opposing group think or campus censorship, organisations and publications already exist [such as] the magazine Spiked Online,” journalist Benedict Spence wrote at the time, adding that “if conservatives are to win round young voters of the future, they will have to do so by policy.” Turning Point UK distanced itself from its previous leadership and mostly moved away from campuses, attempting to reinvent itself as a street-based group. However, five years later in early 2024, Kirk launched his TikTok account and quickly achieved a new level of viral fame on both sides of the Atlantic. Clips of his “Debate Me” events, in which he took on primarily liberal students’ arguments on college campuses, exploded on the platform. This also coincided with a shift in the landscape of the British right toward Kirk’s provocative and extremely online style of politics. Discontent had been swelling around the country as the economic damage of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic began to bite, and far-right movements distrustful of politicians and legacy media gained traction online. While some of Kirk’s favorite topics — such as his staunch opposition to abortion and support of gun rights — have never resonated with Brits, others have converged. Transgender rights moved from a fringe issue to a mainstream talking point, while debates over immigration became so tense they erupted in a series of far-right race riots in August 2024, largely organized and driven by social media. In this political and digital environment, inflammatory culture-war rhetoric found new purchase — and Kirk was a bona fide culture warrior. He called for “a Nuremberg-style trial for every gender-affirming clinic doctor,” posted on X last week that “Islam is the sword the left is using to slit the throat of America” and regularly promoted the racist “great replacement” conspiracy theory, which asserts that elites are engaged in a plot to diminish the voting and cultural power of white Americans via immigration policy. “The American Democrat Party hates this country. They want to see it collapse. They love it when America becomes less white,” he said on his podcast in 2024. Harry Phillips, a 26-year-old truck driver from Kent, just south of London, began turning to influencers for his news during the pandemic, saying he didn’t trust mainstream outlets to truthfully report information such as the Covid-19 death toll. He first came across Kirk’s TikTok videos in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. “I really liked that he was willing to have his beliefs challenged, and that he didn’t do it in an aggressive manner,” he said. “I don’t agree with everything, such as his views on abortion. But I do agree with his stance that there are only two genders, and that gender ideology is being pushed on kids at school.” Through Kirk, Phillips said he discovered other U.S. figures such as far-right influencer Candace Owens and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, whom he now follows on X, as well as more liberal debaters such as TikToker Dean Withers. “America’s such a powerful country, I think we should all keep an eye on what happens there because it can have a knock-on effect here,” he said. University students in the U.K. may not have been concerned about free speech in 2019, but Phillips definitely is. “I believe we’re being very censored by our government in the U.K.,” he said, citing concerns over the numbers of people reportedly arrested for social media posts. He also said Kirk was not just popular with other people his age, but older members of his family too — all of whom are distraught over his death. In May 2025, six years after the original Turning Point U.K. failed to take off, Kirk found his way back to U.K. campuses via the debate societies of elite universities like Oxford and Cambridge. He wasn’t the first far-right provocateur to visit these clubs, which have existed since the 19th century — conservative media mogul Ben Shapiro took part in a Cambridge debate in November 2023. Oxford Union’s most recent president, Anita Okunde, told British GQ these events were an attempt to make the societies, which were widely considered stuffy and stuck-up, “culturally relevant to young people.” Kirk’s hour-long video, “Charlie Kirk vs 400 Cambridge Students and a Professor,” has 2.1 million views on YouTube and has spawned multiple shorter clips, disseminated by his media machine across multiple platforms. Clips from the same debates also exist within a parallel left-wing ecosystem, re-branded with titles such as “Feminist Cambridge Student OBLITERATES Charlie Kirk.” Although Kirk has been lauded in some sections of the media for being open to debate, these videos don’t appear designed to change anyone’s opinion. Both sides have their views reinforced, taking whatever message they prefer to hear. Karen, a British mother in her late 50s who lives on a farm outside the city of Nottingham, said clips of Kirk getting “owned” by progressives are extremely popular with her 17-year-old daughter and her friends. “I had no idea who he was until she reminded me she had shown me some videos before,” said Karen, whose surname POLITICO Magazine is withholding to protect her daughter’s identity from online harassment. “I think he’s a bit too American for them,” she said. “He’s too in-your-face, and they think some of his opinions are just rage-baiting.” The U.K. political landscape is currently in turmoil, with Farage’s Reform U.K. leading the polls at 31 percent while Starmer’s center-left Labour lags behind at 21 percent. Given the unrest at home, it may seem unusual that so many people are heavily engaged with events thousands of miles away in Washington. Social media algorithms play a role pushing content, as do Farage and Robinson’s close relationships with figures such as Trump, Musk and Vice President JD Vance. In any case, young people in the U.K. are as clued into American politics as ever. Cleary’s 12-year-old son’s description of Kirk wasn’t the first time he surprised her with his knowledge of U.S. politics, either: He recently filled her in on Florida’s decision to end vaccine mandates for schoolchildren. “I’m happy that he is inquisitive and he definitely questions things,” she said. However, she wonders if this consumption of politics via social media will shape the way he and his peers view the world for the rest of their lives. “He even says to me, ‘No one my age will ever vote Labour because they’re no good at TikTok,’” she said. “And he says he doesn’t like Reform, but that they made really good social media videos.”

French prosecutors said Friday that foreign interference is behind a wave of apparently provocative acts — from stunts targeting Muslims to antisemitic graffiti — that have struck Paris in the last two years. Pig heads were found outside nine mosques on Tuesday, shocking the Paris region. “Several of the pig heads had the inscription ‘MACRON’ written in blue ink,” the prosecutor’s office said earlier this week. Prosecutors have not yet publicly named a state actor as being responsible for the various incidents, but the cases echo tactics previously attributed to Russian networks seeking to exploit social fractures in Europe. Foreign interference is “something we must take into account, and that we do take into account, since in making an assessment of this type of acts that have taken place in the Paris area since October 2023, we have nine cases,” Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau told BFMTV on Friday. “It started with the blue Stars of David,” Beccuau said, referring to an incident that saw the symbols daubed on building walls in the French capitals’s 14th district in October 2023 — and was later linked to pro-Russian interference. “Then came the ‘red hands,’ then splashes of green paint,” she said about attacks that targeted the Paris Holocaust memorial in 2024 and 2025. Earlier this month, pro-Russian posters were discovered on several pillars of the Arc de Triomphe, showing the image of a soldier with the caption, “Say thank you to the victorious Soviet soldier.” Beccuau said investigators have identified similar patterns in the modus operandi of individuals of Eastern European origin arriving for a short period of time in France to carry out these acts. “Sometimes they take photos of what they have done, and send the photos beyond the borders to sponsors,” she said. “Some of the sponsors have been identified … so we are fully able to be convinced that these acts are operations of interference.” Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, French authorities have accused Moscow of spreading disinformation and orchestrating symbolic provocations designed to sow mistrust in institutions and deepen religious or political tensions. Clea Caulcutt contributed to this report.

LONDON — The Conservatives might be stuck in the wilderness of opposition. But a host of digital warriors are determined to turn their fortunes around. Wounded by an election rout delivering the party’s worst ever result last year, a band of battle-hardened millennials and Gen Z whizzkids are trying to keep the flame of U.K. conservatism burning bright. Despite languishing in the polls and facing constant threats from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, some Tories are keen to show they’ve not given up the fight by posting snappy, eye-catching social media videos.  “It’s absolutely essential that they bring through some new talent,” argued Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, and author of The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation. Pointing to opinion polling about the last Tory government, Bale argued, “people are not prepared to forgive that generation of politicians.” Party Leader Kemi Badenoch’s position remains insecure ahead of Tory conference this fall, with some Conservatives eying former leadership opponent Robert Jenrick as a possible successor. The shadow justice secretary has garnered a significant following on X by posting videos lambasting the government in a direct, no-nonsense style. Topics include tackling Tube fare dodgers and visiting northern France to meet migrants planning to cross the English Channel. Jenrick, it seems, has inspired others to follow suit. Here, POLITICO runs through the Tory posters keeping the dream of actually governing again alive.  KATIE LAM  The Weald of Kent MP went viral on X in April for a punchy parliamentary speech about grooming gangs.   Lam makes regular appearances on podcasts like the Spectator’s Coffee House Shots and less traditional outlets like football chairman Peter McCormack’s show. Serving as a Home Office whip, an X video last month about migration’s impact on public services — using pink beads to represent immigrants and jars to represent Britain — was praised for explaining a complex policy in an understandable way. Bale speculated whether videos like this aimed to boost the profile of newer MPs with journalists: “Although it seems like going over the heads of the media, actually, to be honest, Twitter is going through the media.” Lam has posted long social media threads on the economy, parliamentary sovereignty, the Equality Act and grooming gangs. Her ubiquity on the think tank and parliamentary circuit even saw a video compiling her appearances to the soundtrack of Blondie’s Atomic. And she met JD Vance during the U.S. vice president’s vacation in Britain. DANNY KRUGER  Kruger was a key figure during the dying days of the last Conservative government. Previously David Cameron’s chief speechwriter and Boris Johnson’s political secretary, Kruger has seen the Tories through highs and lows. He shows no signs of slowing down. Kruger was a key figure during the dying days of the last Conservative government. | Justin Tallos/AFP via Getty Images The East Wiltshire MP led the campaign against the assisted dying bill, with clips of him opposing the proposed change in law widely shared online — and emphasizing that conservatism was built around people’s duty to one another.   A 2023 book “Covenant: The New Politics of Home, Neighbourhood and Nation” was expanded on with a lengthy X thread about religion after MPs approved assisted dying. Kruger’s reach grew even larger with a viral Commons speech in July about restoring Christianity. The chamber was empty — but his comments were viewed millions of times. Kruger also met Vance over the summer.  NICK TIMOTHY  Timothy was only elected last year, but is a political veteran. The West Suffolk MP had a bumpy time as Theresa May’s joint chief of staff in No 10. He resigned after the then PM spectacularly lost her parliamentary majority in 2017 on a manifesto he co-authored.  Entering the Commons seven years later, Timothy has reinvented himself, writing punchy columns on topics as broad as net zero, assisted dying and immigration.   He has made a running arguing that free speech is under attack, and accusing Britain’s politicians of allowing a de facto blasphemy law to take hold. Introducing a private members’ bill on freedom of expression, Timothy attracted attention after questioning whether criticism of Islam is now allowed in modern Britain. He may be an old hand, but he’s shown an adeptness at grabbing attention in the modern age.  Timothy attracted attention for raising concerns about whether criticism of Islam was allowed. | Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA HARRIET CROSS   The Conservatives had few successes last year, but did manage to hold most of their Scottish seats, including the new Gordon and Buchan constituency in north east Scotland, which elected Cross as its MP. The One Nation Tory, who originally backed centrist Tom Tugendhat in the leadership race, has campaigned online strongly on issues that tend to cause Labour trouble.   Labour’s refusal to grant any new oil and gas licences and instead focus on renewable energy was leapt upon by Cross, whose seat is right by fossil fuels hotspot the North Sea. She posted regular videos from parliament defending employment in fossil fuel industries and trying to set a clear dividing line.   Labour’s inheritance tax changes for farmers also attracted her ire, and she was tapped up to introduce Scottish Tory Leader Russell Findlay at the party’s summer conference. Given the tough prospects facing the Tories at next year’s Holyrood elections, expect Cross’ star to rise. JAMES COWLING   Cowling has run Next Gen Tories since November 2022, an organization that puts “tackling the generational divide” at its core. Previously a parliamentary researcher, Cowling regularly posts graphics about modern housing costs.   Alongside working at the London Stock Exchange Group, Cowling has written for free market CapX website, where he suggested that a “vibe shift” backing fiscal responsibility could benefit the Tories. He told City AM that delivering infrastructure projects and lowering taxes was essential to stop young people from backing authoritarianism. Cowling has shown a willingness to debate opponents on the left-wing PoliticsJOE podcast too, which has a sizable young audience.  James Fisk, Next Gen Tories’ social media and content lead, said digital media creators should “enjoy it as much as possible” and not take it “ridiculously seriously, because people will see through it.” But Fisk admitted, “you really win people over in person.”   SIMON CLARKE  Clarke served in Liz Truss’ disastrously short administration, and was among hundreds of Tory MPs ejected from parliament last year, albeit by a tiny margin of 214 votes. However, he’s not opted to retreat from politics, and instead thrown himself into wonk world, heading up the center-right Onward think tank since January. “If you’re not shaping the digital debate, you’re at risk of talking to empty air,” Clarke told POLITICO, stressing the Tories needed to present their ideas confidently. “We’ve often tried to win online arguments with corporate tone and committee lines — and it doesn’t work.”  Clarke has certainly had some fun by answering 20 quickfire questions on an exercise bike, walking and talking around Westminster and (temporarily) becoming the new James Bond with “a license to build” as chair of Conservative YIMBY. Maybe losing your seat isn’t so bad after all? “If you’re not shaping the digital debate, you’re at risk of talking to empty air,” Simon Clarke told POLITICO. | Tolga Akmen/EPA JAMES YUCEL   Yucel directs Conservative YIMBY’s day-to-day operations (as well as working at Onward). An organization existing “to make the Conservative Party the home of the builders once again,” its Yes In My Back Yard approach starkly contrasts with older Tory voters, many of whom oppose new housing.  Conservative YIMBY’s first policy document, which was launched in a Westminster townhouse, outlined eight ways the Planning and Infrastructure Bill could be improved. The group’s denim blue “build baby build” baseball caps, costing £15, have become prolific, with Katie Lam, Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake and even Kemi Badenoch herself persuaded to wear them. Yucel sees former Home Secretary James Cleverly, who now shadows the housing brief, as an ally in his battle and has argued forcefully for the right to back more housing. But he has also defended Badenoch in a separate thread for her skepticism about Labour “overriding local democratic consent” on housing. The Tories want to fundamentally show they’ve got a USP for younger voters. “The Conservative Party has got an existential problem,” Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein warned. “It doesn’t have the support of enough young people, and if it doesn’t win that support, it can’t survive.”

TURKEY’S ERDOĞAN BETS BIG WITH HIGH-STAKES KURDISH GAMBLE As the president’s traditional support wanes, he is seeking a risky deal with the Kurds to buy a political lifeline. But is there too much mutual mistrust for a deal? By ELÇIN POYRAZLAR Photo-illustrations by Tarini Sharma for POLITICO Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is making the biggest gamble of his career to save his political skin, just as popular opinion — even in traditionalist, conservative strongholds — swings sharply against him.  His goal? To bring the large Kurdish minority onto his side by ending Turkey’s most intractable political and military conflict that has killed some 40,000 people over four decades and has brutally scarred national life. His move? To give a place in Turkish politics to Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, an organization long proscribed as terrorists by Ankara, the U.S. and EU. It is a sign of Erdoğan’s plummeting fortunes that he is even contemplating such a radical step to keep his grip over the NATO heavyweight of 85 million people. But the Islamist populist knows this is his moment to try to consolidate his position as president — potentially for life — or risk being wiped off the political scene. Advertisement Since suffering crushing defeats at the hands of the secular opposition in the municipal elections of 2024 — most significantly in conservative bastions — Erdoğan has made an increasingly desperate lurch toward full authoritarianism. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has been thrown in jail and the security services have launched a nationwide crackdown to arrest opposition mayors. The allies who supported Erdoğan on his rise to power have largely deserted him.   While the need for a new support base helps explain Erdoğan’s Kurdish gambit, it’s a high-risk move with no guarantee of success. Mainstream Turkish opinion is very wary of the PKK, and the Kurds themselves are extremely nervous about trusting the Turkish authorities. This deal is far from an easy sell. Some initial progress is expected on Friday with a first batch of PKK weapons to be handed over in northern Iraq, probably in the predominantly Kurdish province of Sulaymaniyah. Erdoğan is widely seen as the engineer of the Kurdish rapprochement when his regional diplomacy is also enjoying success. . | Mustafa Kamaci/Anadolu via Getty Images While publicly proclaiming the importance of his “terror-free Turkey” project for reconciliation with the Kurds, Erdoğan is also showing he is wide awake to the risks. He has conceded his project faces “sabotage” from within Turkey, and from within the ranks of the PKK. Sensing some of the potential hostility to his PKK deal, in an address to parliament on Wednesday, the president was careful to pre-empt any attacks from political adversaries that an accord could dishonor veterans or other casualties of the conflict. “Nowhere in the efforts for a terror-free Turkey is there, nor can there be, a step that will tarnish the memory of our martyrs or injure their spirits,” he said. “Guided by the values for which our martyrs made their sacrifices, God willing, we are saving Turkey from a half-century-long calamity and completely removing this bloody shackle that has been placed upon our country.”  Advertisement The jailed Öcalan, speaking in his first video since 1999, said on Wednesday that the PKK movement and its previous quest for a separate Kurdish nation-state were now at an end, as its core demand — the recognition of Kurdish existence — has been met. “Existence has been recognized and therefore the primary objective has been achieved. In this sense, it is outdated … This is a voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law. This is not a loss, but should be seen as a historic achievement,” he said in his video. ISLAND PRISON No issue in Turkish politics is more bitter than the Kurdish conflict. Some Kurds describe themselves as the most numerous stateless people in the world — there are millions in neighboring Iraq, Iran and Syria, and in Turkey they account for approximately 15 to 20 percent of the population. Many Kurds say they have been denied their rights since the formation of the Turkish republic just over a century ago and have long been oppressed. In turn, many Turks see the PKK, which long waged war against the Turkish state, as a terrorist group — and its leader Öcalan, who has been confined to a prison island all this century, as a murderer. Given the explosive range of feelings about Öcalan, it is remarkable that such a personality will prove so central to securing Erdoğan’s deal.   Öcalan, center, calls on the organization to disarm, in a video recorded in prison and published Wednesday. | Tunahan Turhan/LightRocket via Getty Images Known as “Apo,” he is serving a life sentence for treason and separatism on the island of İmralı in the Sea of Marmara. Notorious in part due to the movie “Midnight Express,” İmralı is referred to as “Turkey’s Alcatraz” and has held Öcalan, for several years as its sole inmate, since 1999. He is no longer alone. During the peace process between 2013 and 2015, a number of PKK prisoners were transferred to İmralı to serve as part of Öcalan’s unofficial secretariat. While the Kurdish policy of Erdoğan and his AK Party has oscillated between crackdowns and conciliation during their 22 years in power, Turkey’s hard-line nationalists have long denounced the PKK as a threat and had little time for Kurdish rights. Perhaps the most outspoken enemy of Öcalan has been a veteran politician called Devlet Bahçeli, an ultranationalist leader, who is now Erdoğan’s main ally, helping him pad out his parliamentary majority.  Advertisement In 2007, Bahçeli had even called for Öcalan to be executed. Ten years ago he lashed out at Erdoğan over one of his sporadic attempts to negotiate with the PKK. But last October, in one of the sudden shake-ups that intermittently convulse politics in Turkey, Bahçeli suggested Öcalan could address parliament — as long as he dissolved the PKK. The significance of the volte-face can hardly be overstated — it was almost as if Benjamin Netanyahu had extended an invitation to Hamas — and behind it all was Erdoğan. The effect was dramatic. On Feb. 27, Öcalan sent a public message from his prison, calling for the PKK to give up its arms and terminate itself. Öcalan credited both Bahçeli’s call, and Erdoğan’s willpower, for helping “create an environment” for the group to disarm. “I take on the historical responsibility of this call,” he added. “Convene your congress and make a decision: All groups must lay down their arms and the PKK must dissolve itself,” he added.  The PKK Congress duly declared the end of the armed struggle on May 12, adding the group had “fulfilled its historical mission” and that, as Öcalan had instructed, “all activities conducted under the PKK name have therefore been concluded.” The statement was welcomed in Ankara, but so far, the gambit by Bahçeli and Erdoğan has yet to fully pay off. There is clearly more work to do. And sure enough, after the watershed statement from Öcalan in February, the prisoner gained more staff on İmralı. According to politicians from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party who spoke to POLITICO, three more prisoners were sent to expand the team available for striking a grand bargain. LITTLE TRUST Nurcan Baysal, a Kurdish human rights campaigner and author of the book “We Exist: Being Kurdish In Turkey,” said many Kurds remained wary of the government. “The government is presenting this as a ‘terror-free Turkey’ process and is trying to limit it to just the PKK laying down its weapons and dissolving itself. This is not peace!” she told POLITICO. Baysal said Öcalan’s declaration in February to dissolve the PKK was also met with disappointment among Kurds because he didn’t say anything about the Kurds’ cultural, linguistic, administrative rights and freedoms. Öcalan, flanked by masked officers on a flight from Kenya to Turkey, in 1999. | Hurriyet Ho via Getty Images “This is felt in all Kurdish cities. There is not the slightest enthusiasm about the process. A serious reason for this is that the Kurds do not trust [Erdoğan’s] AK Party government,” she continued. This mutual mistrust is partially the legacy of the failed initiatives of the past, and the fact that Erdoğan’s deal comes amid a major clampdown on the opposition. İpek Özbey, a political commentator for the secularist channel Sözcü TV, reckoned the Turkish government’s apparent moves toward a Kurdish rapprochement were neither sincere nor promising. Advertisement “We cannot talk about democracy in an environment where elected officials are in prison … and the independence of the judiciary is so much under discussion,” she said. “If there is no democracy, how will we democratize?” During the reporting of this article, several government-allied figures also made clear their unease with Erdoğan’s Kurdish initiative, describing the issue as explosive or signaling their own lack of belief in the process, but declined to talk on the record. ONLY ERDOĞAN From the government camp, Harun Armağan, the AK Party’s vice chair of foreign affairs, conceded that Turkish public opinion remained cautious about the PKK deal, but cast Erdoğan as the only man who could pull it off. He told POLITICO that the PKK reached the stage of laying down arms 10 years ago but “due to changing dynamics in Syria [where allied Kurdish fighters were on the rise], they thought investing in war rather than peace would put them in a more advantageous position. “Ten years later, they have realized how gravely mistaken that was,” Armağan continued. “Whether the PKK will truly disarm and dismantle itself is something we will all see together … Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the only leader in Türkiye who could initiate such a process.” Erdoğan has already served three terms as president. To remain in office he may need to change the constitution. | Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images “The only promise made by the government is to completely rid Türkiye of terrorism and to build a future in which all 85 million citizens can live in peace, prosperity, and freedom to the fullest,” he added. Erdoğan is indeed widely seen as the engineer of the Kurdish rapprochement when his regional diplomacy is also enjoying success.  He has been hailed by U.S. President Donald Trump as the main winner from the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria, where the new government has strong ties to Ankara. Erdoğan is trying to take advantage of his clout by severing ties between Syrian Kurdish groups and the PKK. Advertisement Baysal, the Kurdish human rights campaigner, reckoned the change of events in Syria is the main reason why the Turkish government initiated its Kurdish outreach. But Armağan, the AK Party official, insisted the two processes were distinct. “This [Syrian] process is entirely different from our own process of eliminating terrorism,” he said.  “The Syrian government has already called on all armed groups to join a central army, and the SDF [a prominent Syrian Kurdish group] has signed an agreement to this effect. These are promising developments,” he said. PRESIDENT FOR LIFE Some observers think Erdoğan, a formidable political operator, is using the Kurdish process inside and outside the country to extend his stay in power, trying to recruit Kurdish parliamentarians into his camp. That’s certainly the view of DEM Party Group Deputy Chair Sezai Temelli. But he’s cautious about whether it will work, given broader democratic backsliding. He argued the arrest of Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s rival, was hurting this fragile process and that the “Kurdish democratic solution and the Turkish democratization process have a symbiotic relationship.” He added he would not be surprised to see Erdoğan seeking to capitalize on the process to stay in power, but noted that the CHP, Turkey’s main opposition party, had also pledged to resolve the Kurdish issue if it wins the next election. No issue in Turkish politics is more bitter than the Kurdish conflict. Some Kurds describe themselves as the most numerous stateless people in the world. | Tunahan Turhan/LightRocket via Getty Images “‘Who is not using it? Some use it [the Kurdish issue] to come to power, some use it to stay in power,” Temelli said. “But we say this could only be solved independently of election and power calculations.” Erdoğan has already served three terms as president. To remain in office he may need to change the constitution. Despite the support of Bahçeli, the president’s coalition does not have a sufficient majority for constitutional change so Erdoğan may be counting on the support of Kurdish members of parliament. He has already started speaking openly about a new constitution to replace Turkey’s 1980 charter, which was drawn up by a military regime after a bloody coup.  Advertisement “Türkiye for the first time in its history, has a real opportunity to draft its first civilian constitution. This is a significant opportunity for all of us to build a more prosperous, just, and secure country,” Armağan said. Not everybody agrees. Some look back at past constitutional changes under Erdoğan and say the main purpose of further revision to the charter would be, as in the past, to further the president’s political ambitions. Soner Çağaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Erdoğan was acting like a “parallel computer,” executing opposing political strategies — cracking down on the main opposition, while reaching out to the Kurds whose support he needs to stay in office — without the two competing policies tripping over each other. “He will do anything to get one more term as president and then basically install himself as president for life,” Çağaptay told POLITICO. Erdoğan’s Kurdish gambit is a high-risk move with no guarantee of success. | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images But Baysal observed not everything relied on Erdoğan’s ambitions. “Erdoğan is a politician who has the potential to use every issue for his own benefit, and he will not hesitate to instrumentalize the Kurdish issue. He will definitely want to use this to extend his presidency,” she said.  But it is not just the president who will decide, she said. Ultimately, whether Turkey’s tragic Kurdish conflict is consigned to history — and whether Erdoğan reaps the benefit — will depend in large part on the Kurds themselves. “I think the real issue here is not whether he wants it,” said Baysal, referring to Erdoğan, “but whether the Kurds want it.” Advertisement

PARIS — The exiled son of Iran’s last shah today offered himself up as interim leader to take over running the country as it transitions away from dictatorship. Reza Pahlavi, whose supporters style him as the “Crown Prince of Iran,” appealed to the international community to force out the theocratic regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He said he was setting up a new “secure platform” for dissidents and internal opponents of the regime to coordinate their efforts to overthrow the dictatorship and put the country on the path of a “free and democratic” future. “We are a proud, ancient and resilient people,” Pahlavi told a press conference in Paris on Monday. “To my compatriots: This is our moment. I am with you. Let us build this new Iran together.”

PARIS — French Prime Minister François Bayrou on Tuesday delivered a scathing critique of his predecessor and centrist ally Gabriel Attal’s proposal to ban Muslim headscarves for minors under 15. Attal, the leader of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance political party, publicly floated the proposal following a report on alleged attempts by groups supposedly tied to the Egypt-based Muslim Brotherhood to “infiltrate” French society and promote a fundamentalist agenda. The report — described by some experts as “alarmist” — cited instances of particularly young girls wearing headscarves. While Bayrou acknowledged that the document contained useful elements, he said in an interview with RMC that the “scale” of the issue still needs to be assessed and the government must tread carefully out of respect for France’s law-abiding Muslim community. “I don’t want to make Islam a subject of fixation for French society,” Bayrou said. Attal, a former socialist and early Macron ally, and other centrists have increasingly seemed to inch rightward on the political spectrum as France and the rest of Europe has drifted toward a more conservative tilt. As education minister, Attal was responsible for overseeing the ban on abayas — long, flowing robes worn by some Muslim women — in school. But Bayrou hinted that Attal’s new proposal could alienate many French Muslims and would be nearly impossible to enforce. “Does it mean that, in the streets, police officers will tell young women, show me your ID so I can see if you’re old enough?” he said. Macron on Monday said the risk of Islamist infiltration exists but shouldn’t be overblown at the risk of becoming “conspiratorial and paranoid.” Attal’s idea is unlikely to see the light of day without support from Bayrou or even within his own party. Elisabeth Borne, the current education minister and Renaissance’s second-in-command, said she had “the greatest doubts as to the constitutionality of this measure.”