LONDON — Reza Pahlavi was in the United States as a student in 1979 when his father, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in a revolution. He has not set foot inside Iran since, though his monarchist supporters have never stopped believing that one day their “crown prince” will return.  As anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people, despite an internet blackout and an increasingly brutal crackdown, that day may just be nearing.   Pahlavi’s name is on the lips of many protesters, who chant that they want the “shah” back. Even his critics — and there are plenty who oppose a return of the monarchy — now concede that Pahlavi may prove to be the only figure with the profile required to oversee a transition.  The global implications of the end of the Islamic Republic and its replacement with a pro-Western democratic government would be profound, touching everything from the Gaza crisis to the wars in Ukraine and Yemen, to the oil market.  Over the course of three interviews in the past 12 months in London, Paris and online, Pahlavi told POLITICO how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be overthrown. He set out the steps needed to end half a century of religious dictatorship and outlined his own proposal to lead a transition to secular democracy. Nothing is guaranteed, and even Pahlavi’s team cannot be sure that this current wave of protests will take down the regime, never mind bring him to power. But if it does, the following is an account of Pahlavi’s roadmap for revolution and his blueprint for a democratic future.  POPULAR UPRISING  Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran, and in his interview with POLITICO last February he made it clear he wanted foreign powers to focus on supporting Iranians to move against their rulers rather than intervening militarily from the outside.  “People are already on the streets with no help. The economic situation is to a point where our currency devaluation, salaries can’t be paid, people can’t even afford a kilo of potatoes, never mind meat,” he said. “We need more and more sustained protests.” Over the past two weeks, the spiraling cost of living and economic mismanagement have indeed helped fuel the protest wave. The biggest rallies in years have filled the streets, despite attempts by the authorities to intimidate opponents through violence and by cutting off communications. Pahlavi has sought to encourage foreign financial support for workers who will disrupt the state by going on strike. He also called for more Starlink internet terminals to be shipped into Iran, in defiance of a ban, to make it harder for the regime to stop dissidents from communicating and coordinating their opposition. Amid the latest internet shutdowns, Starlink has provided the opposition movements with a vital lifeline. As the protests gathered pace last week, Pahlavi stepped up his own stream of social media posts and videos, which gain many millions of views, encouraging people onto the streets. He started by calling for demonstrations to begin at 8 p.m. local time, then urged protesters to start earlier and occupy city centers for longer. His supporters say these appeals are helping steer the protest movement. Reza Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran. | Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA The security forces have brutally crushed many of these gatherings. The Norway-based Iranian Human Rights group puts the number of dead at 648, while estimating that more than 10,000 people have been arrested. It’s almost impossible to know how widely Pahlavi’s message is permeating nationwide, but footage inside Iran suggests the exiled prince’s words are gaining some traction with demonstrators, with increasing images of the pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag appearing at protests, and crowds chanting “javid shah” — the eternal shah. DEFECTORS Understandably, given his family history, Pahlavi has made a study of revolutions and draws on the collapse of the Soviet Union to understand how the Islamic Republic can be overthrown. In Romania and Czechoslovakia, he said, what was required to end Communism was ultimately “maximum defections” among people inside the ruling elites, military and security services who did not want to “go down with the sinking ship.”  “I don’t think there will ever be a successful civil disobedience movement without the tacit collaboration or non-intervention of the military,” he said during an interview last February.  There are multiple layers to Iran’s machinery of repression, including the hated Basij militia, but the most powerful and feared part of its security apparatus is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pahlavi argued that top IRGC commanders who are “lining their pockets” — and would remain loyal to Khamenei — did not represent the bulk of the organization’s operatives, many of whom “can’t pay rent and have to take a second job at the end of their shift.”  “They’re ultimately at some point contemplating their children are in the streets protesting … and resisting the regime. And it’s their children they’re called on to shoot. How long is that tenable?” Pahlavi’s offer to those defecting is that they will be granted an amnesty once the regime has fallen. He argues that most of the people currently working in the government and military will need to remain in their roles to provide stability once Khamenei has been thrown out, in order to avoid hollowing out the administration and creating a vacuum — as happened after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.  Only the hardline officials at the top of the regime in Tehran should expect to face punishment.  In June, Pahlavi announced he and his team were setting up a secure portal for defectors to register their support for overthrowing the regime, offering an amnesty to those who sign up and help support a popular uprising. By July, he told POLITICO, 50,000 apparent regime defectors had used the system.  His team are now wary of making claims regarding the total number of defectors, beyond saying “tens of thousands” have registered. These have to be verified, and any regime trolls or spies rooted out. But Pahlavi’s allies say a large number of new defectors made contact via the portal as the protests gathered pace in recent days.  REGIME CHANGE In his conversations with POLITICO last year, Pahlavi insisted he didn’t want the United States or Israel to get involved directly and drive out the supreme leader and his lieutenants. He always said the regime would be destroyed by a combination of fracturing from within and pressure from popular unrest.  He’s also been critical of the reluctance of European governments to challenge the regime and of their preference to continue diplomatic efforts, which he has described as appeasement. European powers, especially France, Germany and the U.K., have historically had a significant role in managing the West’s relations with Iran, notably in designing the 2015 nuclear deal that sought to limit Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.  But Pahlavi’s allies want more support and vocal condemnation from Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. He ordered American military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, as part of Israel’s 12-day war, action that many analysts and Pahlavi’s team agree leaves the clerical elite and its vast security apparatus weaker than ever.  U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. | Pool photo by Bonnie Cash via EPA Pahlavi remains in close contact with members of the Trump administration, as well as other governments including in Germany, France and the U.K. He has met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio several times and said he regards him as “the most astute and understanding” holder of that office when it comes to Iran since the 1979 revolution.  In recent days Trump has escalated his threats to intervene, including potentially through more military action if Iran’s rulers continue their crackdown and kill large numbers of protesters.  On the weekend Pahlavi urged Trump to follow through. “Mr President,” he posted on X Sunday. “Your words of solidarity have given Iranians the strength to fight for freedom,” he said. “Help them liberate themselves and Make Iran Great Again!” THE CARETAKER KING  In June Pahlavi announced he was ready to replace Khamenei’s administration to lead the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.   “Once the regime collapses, we have to have a transitional government as quickly as possible,” he told POLITICO last year. He proposed that a constitutional conference should be held among Iranian representatives to devise a new settlement, to be ratified by the people in a referendum.  The day after that referendum is held, he told POLITICO in February, “that’s the end of my mission in life.”  Asked if he wanted to see a monarchy restored, he said in June: “Democratic options should be on the table. I’m not going to be the one to decide that. My role however is to make sure that no voice is left behind. That all opinions should have the chance to argue their case — it doesn’t matter if they are republicans or monarchists, it doesn’t matter if they’re on the left of center or the right.”  One option he hasn’t apparently excluded might be to restore a permanent monarchy, with a democratically elected government serving in his name.  Pahlavi says he has three clear principles for establishing a new democracy: protecting Iran’s territorial integrity; a secular democratic system that separates religion from the government; and “every principle of human rights incorporated into our laws.” He confirmed to POLITICO that this would include equality and protection against discrimination for all citizens, regardless of their sexual or religious orientation.  COME-BACK CAPITALISM  Over the past year, Pahlavi has been touring Western capitals meeting politicians as well as senior business figures and investors from the world of banking and finance. Iran is a major OPEC oil producer and has the second biggest reserves of natural gas in the world, “which could supply Europe for a long time to come,” he said.  “Iran is the most untapped reserve for foreign investment,” Pahlavi said in February. “If Silicon Valley was to commit for a $100 billion investment, you could imagine what sort of impact that could have. The sky is the limit.”  What he wants to bring about, he says, is a “democratic culture” — even more than any specific laws that stipulate forms of democratic government. He pointed to Iran’s past under the Pahlavi monarchy, saying his grandfather remains a respected figure as a modernizer.  “If it becomes an issue of the family, my grandfather today is the most revered political figure in the architect of modern Iran,” he said in February. “Every chant of the streets of ‘god bless his soul.’ These are the actual slogans people chant on the street as they enter or exit a soccer stadium. Why? Because the intent was patriotic, helping Iran come out of the dark ages. There was no aspect of secular modern institutions from a postal system to a modern army to education which was in the hands of the clerics.”   Pahlavi’s father, the shah, brought in an era of industrialization and economic improvement alongside greater freedom for women, he said. “This is where the Gen Z of Iran is,” he said. “Regardless of whether I play a direct role or not, Iranians are coming out of the tunnel.”  Conversely, many Iranians still associate his father’s regime with out-of-touch elites and the notorious Savak secret police, whose brutality helped fuel the 1979 revolution. NOT SO FAST  Nobody can be sure what happens next in Iran. It may still come down to Trump and perhaps Israel.  Anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people. | Neil Hall/EPA Plenty of experts don’t believe the regime is finished, though it is clearly weakened. Even if the protests do result in change, many say it seems more likely that the regime will use a mixture of fear tactics and adaptation to protect itself rather than collapse or be toppled completely.  While reports suggest young people have led the protests and appear to have grown in confidence, recent days have seen a more ferocious regime response, with accounts of hospitals being overwhelmed with shooting victims. The demonstrations could still be snuffed out by a regime with a capacity for violence.  The Iranian opposition remains hugely fragmented, with many leading activists in prison. The substantial diaspora has struggled to find a unity of voice, though Pahlavi tried last year to bring more people on board with his own movement.  Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iran should do better than reviving a “failed” monarchy. She added she was unsure how wide Pahlavi’s support really was inside the country. Independent, reliable polling is hard to find and memories of the darker side of the shah’s era run deep. But the exiled prince’s advantage now may be that there is no better option to oversee the collapse of the clerics and map out what comes next. “Pahlavi has name recognition and there is no other clear individual to turn to,” Vakil said. “People are willing to listen to his comments calling on them to go out in the streets.”

STRASBOURG — The European Parliament has voted today to set up an EU fund to expand access to abortion for women across the bloc, in a historic vote that divided lawmakers. The plan would establish a voluntary, opt-in financial mechanism to help countries provide abortion care to women who can’t access it in their own country and who choose to travel to one with more liberal laws. European citizens presented the plan in a petition — through the campaign group “My Voice, My Choice.” Lawmakers in Strasbourg voted 358 in favor and 202 against the proposal, and 79 MEPs abstained. The topic sparked animated discussions in the European Parliament plenary on Tuesday evening. MEPs with center-right and far-right groups tabled competing texts to the resolution put forward by Renew’s Abir Al-Sahlani on behalf of the women’s rights and gender equality committee. Supporters of the scheme argued it would help reduce unsafe abortions and ensure women across the bloc have equal rights; those who oppose it, mostly from conservative groups, dismissed it as an ideological push and EU overreach into national policy. Abortion laws vary greatly across the EU, from near-total bans in Poland and Malta to liberal rules in the Netherlands and the U.K. The fund could be a game changer for the thousands of European women who travel every year to another EU country to access abortion care. The European Commission now has until March 2026 to give a response. This story is being updated.

Latvia could become the first EU country to withdraw from a landmark international treaty to combat domestic abuse and violence against women following a parliamentary vote Thursday. Lawmakers voted by a margin of 56 to 32, with two abstentions, to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention — a Council of Europe treaty intended to standardize support for women who are victims of violence — just a year after it came into force. “It’s a shameful decision for the parliament,” Andris Šuvajevs, parliamentary group leader for the center-left Progressive Party, told POLITICO shortly after the vote, which took place after an intense 14-hour debate. The legislation to withdraw from the treaty was introduced by a right-wing opposition party, Latvia First, but passed with support from one of the three parties in the ruling coalition. The centrist Union of Greens and Farmers broke ranks with Prime Minister Evika Siliņa to help push the bill through. Ingūna Millere, a representative of Latvia First, told POLITICO in a written comment that the Istanbul Convention was a “product of radical feminism based on the ideology of ‘gender’” and that Latvia’s ratification of the treaty was “political marketing that has nothing to do with the fight against violence.” The push to withdraw from the convention has been sharply criticized by human rights groups, which warned that it would roll back women’s rights in Latvia. A day before the vote, around 5,000 people demonstrated outside the parliament, carrying signs reading “Hands off the Istanbul Convention” and “Latvia is not Russia.” Tamar Dekanosidze, the Eurasia regional representative for women’s rights NGO Equality Now, said the bill attempted to reframe gender equality initiatives as pushing an “LGBTQ agenda,” adopting a Kremlin-style narrative that allows politicians to portray themselves as defenders of “national values” ahead of elections.  “This would mean that, in terms of values, legal systems and governance, Latvia would be more aligned with Russia than with the European Union and Western countries,” she said, adding that this “directly serves Russia’s interests in the country.” Latvia’s withdrawal would require the support of President Edgars Rinkēvičs, who said before the vote that he would review the law and announce his decision within 10 days. Latvia would be only the second country to quit the convention following Turkey’s exit in 2021.

PARIS — A major test looms for France following the likely collapse of French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government on Sept. 8. Increasing numbers of people appear to be heeding the calls of a murky, leaderless crusade for a national shutdown on Sept. 10. The movement, initially made up of a constellation of anonymous anti-government accounts of varying political affiliations, began earlier this summer, reaching the general public as anger grew over Bayrou’s plans to lop €43.8 billion from the 2026 budget and slash two bank holidays without offering wage compensation. Bayrou is expected to lose his job after announcing on Monday that he would convene lawmakers for an extraordinary session to hold a high-stakes confidence vote on Sept. 8 over his unpopular spending plans. Barring a major shift, France’s minority government is unlikely to survive the vote. By setting up his own likely exit just two days ahead of the mass protests, Bayrou may have taken the wind out of the movement’s sails — if would-be protesters end up staying home without a government or budget to oppose. If people still show up in large numbers, however, Macron will be left to deal with the aftermath. As of last week, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll commissioned by RTL showed two in three respondents voicing support for “shutting down the country” on Sept. 10, including an overwhelming majority of voters on both the left and the far right. The campaign quickly drew comparisons with the Yellow Vests uprising of 2018–19 — another amorphous mobilization — that snowballed out of Facebook groups. While most French politicians have approached the Sept. 10 movement with caution, given the difficulty of pinning down its origins and demands, three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon was immediately an enthusiastic advocate. Mélenchon, a self-described left-wing populist and advocate for what he calls a “civic revolution,” said in a radio interview on Tuesday that trade unions should back the Sept. 10 initiative and call for a general strike in order to put pressure on Macron. Bayrou could become the second of Macron’s prime ministers to fall in less than a year, if he loses next week’s vote. According to Mélenchon, Macron would then “understand that it would be useless to reappoint a third prime minister, who would of course apply the same policies.” “We can’t negotiate with this administration,” Mélenchon said. “We need to have him impeached.” One of France’s main trade union organizations, the CGT, put out a statement Wednesday calling for strikes wherever possible. Calls for Emmanuel Macron’s resignation extend beyond the radical left. | Pool photo by Aaron Schwartz via EPA Mélenchon’s France Unbowed (La France Insoumise) party has announced that it would submit a long-shot parliamentary motion to remove Macron that seems doomed to fail. Still, if the protesters show up on Sept. 10, talk of Macron’s exit will grow even louder — although the president ultimately holds the key to that decision. Calls for Macron’s resignation extend beyond the radical left. Well-known conservatives from Les Républicains party — which has backed both Bayrou and Barnier as part of a coalition with pro-Macron parties — have come out in support of the president’s resignation. “Emmanuel Macron must make a Gaullian gesture and plan his resignation,” the party’s former leader Jean-François Copé told the conservative daily publication Le Figaro, referring to former President Charles de Gaulle’s 1969 departure, after losing a referendum on constitutional revisions to create new local administrations. Copé had announced during the referendum campaign that he would step down if the vote failed. “Macron must accept that the French people no longer want him and act like a statesman.”

LONDON — The Conservatives might be stuck in the wilderness of opposition. But a host of digital warriors are determined to turn their fortunes around. Wounded by an election rout delivering the party’s worst ever result last year, a band of battle-hardened millennials and Gen Z whizzkids are trying to keep the flame of U.K. conservatism burning bright. Despite languishing in the polls and facing constant threats from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, some Tories are keen to show they’ve not given up the fight by posting snappy, eye-catching social media videos.  “It’s absolutely essential that they bring through some new talent,” argued Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, and author of The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation. Pointing to opinion polling about the last Tory government, Bale argued, “people are not prepared to forgive that generation of politicians.” Party Leader Kemi Badenoch’s position remains insecure ahead of Tory conference this fall, with some Conservatives eying former leadership opponent Robert Jenrick as a possible successor. The shadow justice secretary has garnered a significant following on X by posting videos lambasting the government in a direct, no-nonsense style. Topics include tackling Tube fare dodgers and visiting northern France to meet migrants planning to cross the English Channel. Jenrick, it seems, has inspired others to follow suit. Here, POLITICO runs through the Tory posters keeping the dream of actually governing again alive.  KATIE LAM  The Weald of Kent MP went viral on X in April for a punchy parliamentary speech about grooming gangs.   Lam makes regular appearances on podcasts like the Spectator’s Coffee House Shots and less traditional outlets like football chairman Peter McCormack’s show. Serving as a Home Office whip, an X video last month about migration’s impact on public services — using pink beads to represent immigrants and jars to represent Britain — was praised for explaining a complex policy in an understandable way. Bale speculated whether videos like this aimed to boost the profile of newer MPs with journalists: “Although it seems like going over the heads of the media, actually, to be honest, Twitter is going through the media.” Lam has posted long social media threads on the economy, parliamentary sovereignty, the Equality Act and grooming gangs. Her ubiquity on the think tank and parliamentary circuit even saw a video compiling her appearances to the soundtrack of Blondie’s Atomic. And she met JD Vance during the U.S. vice president’s vacation in Britain. DANNY KRUGER  Kruger was a key figure during the dying days of the last Conservative government. Previously David Cameron’s chief speechwriter and Boris Johnson’s political secretary, Kruger has seen the Tories through highs and lows. He shows no signs of slowing down. Kruger was a key figure during the dying days of the last Conservative government. | Justin Tallos/AFP via Getty Images The East Wiltshire MP led the campaign against the assisted dying bill, with clips of him opposing the proposed change in law widely shared online — and emphasizing that conservatism was built around people’s duty to one another.   A 2023 book “Covenant: The New Politics of Home, Neighbourhood and Nation” was expanded on with a lengthy X thread about religion after MPs approved assisted dying. Kruger’s reach grew even larger with a viral Commons speech in July about restoring Christianity. The chamber was empty — but his comments were viewed millions of times. Kruger also met Vance over the summer.  NICK TIMOTHY  Timothy was only elected last year, but is a political veteran. The West Suffolk MP had a bumpy time as Theresa May’s joint chief of staff in No 10. He resigned after the then PM spectacularly lost her parliamentary majority in 2017 on a manifesto he co-authored.  Entering the Commons seven years later, Timothy has reinvented himself, writing punchy columns on topics as broad as net zero, assisted dying and immigration.   He has made a running arguing that free speech is under attack, and accusing Britain’s politicians of allowing a de facto blasphemy law to take hold. Introducing a private members’ bill on freedom of expression, Timothy attracted attention after questioning whether criticism of Islam is now allowed in modern Britain. He may be an old hand, but he’s shown an adeptness at grabbing attention in the modern age.  Timothy attracted attention for raising concerns about whether criticism of Islam was allowed. | Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA HARRIET CROSS   The Conservatives had few successes last year, but did manage to hold most of their Scottish seats, including the new Gordon and Buchan constituency in north east Scotland, which elected Cross as its MP. The One Nation Tory, who originally backed centrist Tom Tugendhat in the leadership race, has campaigned online strongly on issues that tend to cause Labour trouble.   Labour’s refusal to grant any new oil and gas licences and instead focus on renewable energy was leapt upon by Cross, whose seat is right by fossil fuels hotspot the North Sea. She posted regular videos from parliament defending employment in fossil fuel industries and trying to set a clear dividing line.   Labour’s inheritance tax changes for farmers also attracted her ire, and she was tapped up to introduce Scottish Tory Leader Russell Findlay at the party’s summer conference. Given the tough prospects facing the Tories at next year’s Holyrood elections, expect Cross’ star to rise. JAMES COWLING   Cowling has run Next Gen Tories since November 2022, an organization that puts “tackling the generational divide” at its core. Previously a parliamentary researcher, Cowling regularly posts graphics about modern housing costs.   Alongside working at the London Stock Exchange Group, Cowling has written for free market CapX website, where he suggested that a “vibe shift” backing fiscal responsibility could benefit the Tories. He told City AM that delivering infrastructure projects and lowering taxes was essential to stop young people from backing authoritarianism. Cowling has shown a willingness to debate opponents on the left-wing PoliticsJOE podcast too, which has a sizable young audience.  James Fisk, Next Gen Tories’ social media and content lead, said digital media creators should “enjoy it as much as possible” and not take it “ridiculously seriously, because people will see through it.” But Fisk admitted, “you really win people over in person.”   SIMON CLARKE  Clarke served in Liz Truss’ disastrously short administration, and was among hundreds of Tory MPs ejected from parliament last year, albeit by a tiny margin of 214 votes. However, he’s not opted to retreat from politics, and instead thrown himself into wonk world, heading up the center-right Onward think tank since January. “If you’re not shaping the digital debate, you’re at risk of talking to empty air,” Clarke told POLITICO, stressing the Tories needed to present their ideas confidently. “We’ve often tried to win online arguments with corporate tone and committee lines — and it doesn’t work.”  Clarke has certainly had some fun by answering 20 quickfire questions on an exercise bike, walking and talking around Westminster and (temporarily) becoming the new James Bond with “a license to build” as chair of Conservative YIMBY. Maybe losing your seat isn’t so bad after all? “If you’re not shaping the digital debate, you’re at risk of talking to empty air,” Simon Clarke told POLITICO. | Tolga Akmen/EPA JAMES YUCEL   Yucel directs Conservative YIMBY’s day-to-day operations (as well as working at Onward). An organization existing “to make the Conservative Party the home of the builders once again,” its Yes In My Back Yard approach starkly contrasts with older Tory voters, many of whom oppose new housing.  Conservative YIMBY’s first policy document, which was launched in a Westminster townhouse, outlined eight ways the Planning and Infrastructure Bill could be improved. The group’s denim blue “build baby build” baseball caps, costing £15, have become prolific, with Katie Lam, Tory Chairman Kevin Hollinrake and even Kemi Badenoch herself persuaded to wear them. Yucel sees former Home Secretary James Cleverly, who now shadows the housing brief, as an ally in his battle and has argued forcefully for the right to back more housing. But he has also defended Badenoch in a separate thread for her skepticism about Labour “overriding local democratic consent” on housing. The Tories want to fundamentally show they’ve got a USP for younger voters. “The Conservative Party has got an existential problem,” Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein warned. “It doesn’t have the support of enough young people, and if it doesn’t win that support, it can’t survive.”

National governments and lawmakers in the European Parliament are uniting in pushing against an intended withdrawal of a long-stalled proposal that seeks to crack down on discrimination in the workplace. Fourteen EU countries have sent a letter, dated July 1 and obtained by POLITICO, to Hadja Lahbib, the EU’s equality commissioner, urging the European Commission to reconsider its decision to axe the equal treatment directive.  The EU executive in February proposed to withdraw the 2008 bill aimed at extending protection against discrimination in the workplace on grounds such as race, religion, disability, age and sexual orientation after 17 years of deadlock in the Council of the EU, where EU capitals hash out positions, as further progress was deemed by the Commission to be “unlikely.” But social affairs ministers of Belgium, Estonia, France, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden want to save the directive from the chopping block. In the letter, they argued that “the support for this directive has never been greater” and urged the Commission to reengage with the remaining holdouts to “clarify what improvements can be made to arrive at the required unanimity.” The move follows another letter from Parliament President Roberta Metsola, dated June 16 and obtained by POLITICO, in which the committee on civil liberties — which handled the file in Parliament — expressed “strong” opposition to the Commission’s plan to axe the file. Lahbib emphasized in May in front of lawmakers that “it has not been possible to reach the required unanimity and there is no indication or clear prospect that unanimity could be reached in the foreseeable future.”  Twenty-four countries supported the file in the Council talks, but three countries — Germany, the Czech Republic and Italy — blocked the directive. “We need unanimity in the Council, and while abstention is enough, objection is not,” Lahbib told lawmakers from the committee.  If those three countries “specify which concerns prevent them from agreeing, or at least abstaining from a vote on the text,” this would allow them to find a compromise, Lahbib said, adding that “engaging with these three member states also has potential.” The Commission in February gave the Parliament and the Council six months to express their — non-binding — opinion to the list of proposals it wanted to withdraw.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Europe baked, the Atomium shut early — and Brussels finally unveiled its long-delayed climate target. Host Sarah Wheaton speaks with POLITICO Climate Reporter Louise Guillot, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Nick Vinocur and EU Politics Reporter Max Griera about the EU’s new 2040 goal: What a 90 percent emissions cut really means, why critics say it’s already being softened, and how Denmark’s presidency of the Council of the EU plans to juggle climate, migration and more amid stormy politics. We also pull back the curtain on Ursula von der Leyen’s powerful gatekeeper, Bjoern Seibert — and on Viktor Orbán’s crackdown on Budapest Pride. Later, POLITICO’s Cities Correspondent Aitor Hernández-Morales joins to explore how Europe’s cities are navigating the heat — both political and literal — and why so many mayors are now turning to Brussels for help with urgent issues like housing.

BERLIN — Extreme-right groups in Germany are increasingly targeting LGBTQ+ people as part of a systematic effort to gain popularity and win new recruits. Right-wing extremists have mobilized against Pride events scheduled for this summer, planning counter demonstrations that purport to celebrate traditional, heterosexual relationships. It’s a message, experts say, that is drawing a growing number of young Germans to the extreme right. In the eastern German town of Bautzen, organizers of a local Pride parade set to take place in August are preparing for a large counter demonstration of right-wing extremists, many of them teenagers. “Man and woman. The true foundation of life,” reads an online post advertising one of the protests. Organizers of the Pride event, which celebrates Christopher Street Day (CSD) — a commemoration of the 1969 Stonewall Riots in New York City that became a catalyst for the international gay rights movement — say participants face threats and intimidation.  “The threats are much harsher online because of the supposed anonymity,” said Lea Krause, one of the CSD parade organizers in Bautzen. “But it’s tough on the street too, simply because you’re face to face with people. And they know exactly who you are, and you also know who they are.” German federal police say CSD events — of which there are some 200 scheduled across Germany during the spring and summer — are increasingly targeted by neo-Nazi and other right-wing extremist groups. Since the middle of last year, “new youth groups have emerged in the right-wing scene” that target the CSD events, Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office said in an emailed statement. A CSD parade in the Bavarian city of Regensburg planned for July had to be rescheduled due to threats against its organizers. In the small eastern German city of Wernigerode, a 20-year-old man allegedly threatened to open fire on the local CSD event. Police later found ammunition at the suspect’s house, according to media reports. At a CSD parade in June on the outskirts of Berlin, police said they prevented a violent attack on participants amid a counter-demonstration planned by a right-wing extremist group. During last year’s CSD parade in Bautzen, nearly 700 right-wing extremists gathered to disrupt the celebration, which drew about 1,000 people amid a heavy police presence. Many of the counter-demonstrators were minors, according to a report from regional domestic intelligence authorities. “I’ve had enough, enough of this Pride month, enough of all the rainbow flags hanging everywhere: on schools, town halls, even in the German armed forces,” Dan-Odin Wölfer, a member of the extreme-right group organizing the counter-demonstration in Bautzen this year, said in an online video. The month, he went on, “doesn’t belong to the rainbow. It belongs to us. It belongs to the people who built this country, who stand up, work and fight every day for their families, for their homeland. We are proud of our country.” Krause, the CSD event organizer in Bautzen, said she’s confident the police will be able to protect this year’s march, but feared extreme-right violence on the sidelines. Traveling to and from the event alone or in small groups, she said, “is of course dangerous.” THE EXTREME RIGHT’S ALTERNATIVE PRIDE The targeting of Pride events is part of a larger wave of radicalization within German society that is particularly affecting the country’s youth, authorities say. Extreme-right crimes surged by nearly 50 percent last year, according to police figures. “We have to realize that in society as a whole, and among a share of young people, we see a shift to the right and an increase in the acceptance of violence,” Holger Münch, the head of Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, told reporters when presenting the crime statistics in May. At the same time, Germany’s far right is increasingly turning its focus to gay pride, rebranding Pride month as Stolzmonat, with a focus on the traditional family and national pride. “Stolzmonat is an alternative that seeks to consciously counter the forced change … setting an example of traditional values, family ties and stability in uncertain times,” reads a statement on the website of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. Domestic intelligence authorities there classify the party branch as extremist. The targeting of Pride events is part of a larger wave of radicalization within German society that is particularly affecting the country’s youth, authorities say. | Clemens Bilan/EPA “For a long time, the German far right focused on migration, Islam, EU skepticism and the coronavirus,” said Sabine Volk, a researcher at the Institute for Research on Far-Right Extremism at the University of Tübingen. “But in the aftermath of the pandemic, we have seen an increased focus on queer-phobia, anti-LGBTQ+ discourse and, since last year, protest activities.” Such discourse is particularly effective at radicalizing young men who don’t start out identifying with right-wing extremist ideology, Volk said. Recruiting often happens within seemingly apolitical organizations, including at combat sports and mixed martial arts clubs. “If organizations are not clearly attributable to the far-right spectrum, that seems to make them more attractive to young people who are not necessarily attracted to a party, but to a shared experience,” Volk said. In those settings, extreme-right activists often begin radicalizing young people by promoting what they portray as traditional values. Organizers of the extreme-right counter-demonstration in the eastern German town of Bautzen, for instance, say the event is about upholding “the family as the core of our community” and “respect for the natural order.” Krause, Bautzen’s CSD event organizer, said she expected the counter-demonstration to be bigger this year. At the same time, she believes the CSD parade itself will draw many more participants. “It is very nice to see that some people in Bautzen really want to go through with this,” Krause said. “We are very, very brave and empowered to keep on going.”

Senior Spanish government officials accused the European Commission of “complicity” with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ban on an LGBTQ+ Pride parade in Budapest this weekend. The officials criticized the Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen for failing to challenge before the European Court of Justice the Hungarian law on which Orbán based his ban, adding to the frustrations of EU political parties, civil society organizations and Hungarian activists.  “First, the government of Spain is here, defending human rights and democracy. Second, denouncing the complicity of the European Commission. And third, sending a message not only to Europe, but to the rest of the world,” Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz told POLITICO in Budapest during a European Green Party rally ahead of the Pride parade.  “What we represent as the government of Spain, from Budapest to the world, is hope … the far right always comes from the margins and goes to the center,” she said. “They are not questioning the rights of the LGBTI people alone; they go from the rights of the LGBTI people and women to the center until democracy is colonized,” she said. This past March, Orbán’s government passed legislation prohibiting public assemblies that “promote or display” the LGBTQ+ community, under the pretext of protecting children. Effectively banning Pride celebrations nationwide, the measure set up Budapest as the epicenter of Europe’s culture war, with European politicians condemning the move and government officials and elected lawmakers descending on the Hungarian capital to protest.  European Commission chief von der Leyen urged Orbán to allow Pride to go ahead, but the EU executive is still deciding whether to launch a court case over the Hungarian bill. The Commission had already challenged a previous Hungarian law banning LGBTI+ content for children in 2021, and is now waiting for the final court ruling on that. EU Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib defended the Commission, citing the challenge to the 2021 law, a challenge the high court’s Advocate General Tamara Ćapeta supported in an opinion in early June. “So we are analyzing the law … you know we have to be strategic sometimes,” Lahbib told a press conference in Budapest the day before the Pride parade.  “You have to choose your moments and we don’t want to interfere, neither on national affairs and competencies, neither during a procedure which is sensitive,” Lahbib said. ‘WORDS ARE NOT ENOUGH’ Díaz’s colleague, Culture Minister Ernest Urtasun, who also joined the march in Budapest, said Spain’s government is “very, very concerned” about the issue. “It is a duty” of all progressive governments to “stand in the way” when there are attacks against fundamental rights, he added.  Echoing Díaz, Uratsun said the government in Madrid expects “the European Commission to be strong in defending EU law.” “We would like the European Commission to be much stronger than it has been doing in the last months,” Uratsun said. The Spanish delegation was joined in Budapest by government representatives from France and the Netherlands, as well as lawmakers from dozens of other countries and mayors from major European capitals.  During a press conference Saturday morning, the chairs of the European Parliament Socialist, Left, Green and liberal groups also urged the Commission to launch a challenge on the law. “Words are not enough,” said Socialists and Democrats group leader Iratxe García Pérez. “We need action. And action means that the European Commission start the infringement procedure against this law,” García Pérez said. Civil society organizations are also calling on the European Commission to intervene against Hungary’s potential use of facial recognition technology to identify attendees in the Pride parade. Dozens of digital and human rights groups said Hungary’s use of the technology is “a glaring violation” of the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act, in an open letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her colleagues in charge of technology, rule of law and equality, as first reported by POLITICO. In a joint declaration at the end of May, 20 member states including Spain, Germany and France stated their concerns regarding Orbán’s crackdown on fundamental rights, and called on the Commission to use all means at its disposal to prevent democratic backsliding in Hungary. 

BRUSSELS — Rights groups are pleading with the European Commission to intervene against Hungary’s potential use of facial recognition technology to identify attendees of the banned Pride this weekend in Budapest. Dozens of digital and human rights groups said Hungary’s use of the technology is “a glaring violation” of the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act, in an open letter sent to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her colleagues in charge of technology, rule of law and equality, first reported by POLITICO. The groups want Brussels to open an infringement procedure against Hungary for breaking EU law. Such a step would add to ongoing tensions between Brussels and Budapest over whether the Hungarian government abides by the EU’s rule of law standards. So far, Brussels has only said it is looking at the matter — despite the fact Budapest Pride will take place on Saturday. The EU executive hasn’t responded to questions filed by dozens of European Parliament lawmakers. In April, POLITICO reported that the Commission was “assessing” a Hungarian law that allows police to use facial recognition technology to identify those at Pride events and would not “hesitate to take action, where appropriate.” Civil society is enraged by the silence since. “The inaction of the Commission to enforce fundamental and digital rights, despite urging from civil society, is deeply concerning,” said Blue Tiyavorabun, policy adviser at digital rights group EDRi, one of the signatories of the letter. The Commission didn’t respond to multiple requests to comment for this article. Hungary in mid-March banned Pride gatherings, saying the move was designed to protect children. With a series of amendments to existing laws, it opened the door for its police forces to use face scanning for any type of offense — including attending a banned gathering such as Pride. Brussels has only said it is looking at the matter — despite the fact Budapest Pride will take place on Saturday. | Zoltan Mathe/EFE via EPA If the facial recognition occurs in real-time, that would amount to a breach of the EU’s AI Act. The law forbids real-time biometric identification in public places by law enforcers, a rule that came into effect in February. Hungary’s case marks “the first known violation of the prohibitions,” the rights groups wrote in their letter, saying it would set a “worrying precedent.” “If unaddressed, this can cause a domino effect where other member states might feel emboldened to adopt similar legislation,” they wrote. But the Commission still has to assess whether Hungary’s use of the technology amounts to “real-time” use. The EU’s AI rulebook is less strict about biometric identification that is not deployed in real-time. For instance, such biometric identification would be allowed with court approval for specific criminal offenses after the facts took place. The digital and human rights groups are attempting to convince Brussels that Hungary’s system permits authorities to act “in ways that should be considered real-time,” according to the legal analysis they shared with the Commission, seen by POLITICO. Hungarian authorities haven’t released details on how the technology would be deployed, but the Hungarian Council for Civil Liberties Union compiled a list of questions and answers that makes some claims about the system. Facial recognition is performed based on still images, and the system can only identify individuals with a Hungarian photo ID, as the pictures are compared to a facial profile registry maintained by the Hungarian Institute for Forensic Sciences (HIFS), the Hungarian Council for Civil Liberties said in the list of questions and answers. The registry does not contain actual photographs but a “biometric identifier,” it said. In their legal analysis, the rights groups say the police could connect directly to the systems of the HIFS and see on the spot whether there’s a match between the image and the biometric identifier. That would fit the AI Act’s definition of real-time, which is “without significant delay,” they said. HIFS didn’t respond to a request for comment. A Hungarian government spokesperson said in April it believed “all is in line with our constitution and EU law.” Several high-profile European politicians are expected to attend Pride on Saturday, among them Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, the chairs of the Socialist, liberal and Green groups, Spain’s Culture Minister Ernest Urtasun, Dutch Education Minister Eppo Bruins, former Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo and former Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.  Kim van Sparrentak, one of the AI Act’s co-drafters, has also said she’ll attend the parade. Von der Leyen on Wednesday night called on Hungary to allow the Budapest Pride to go ahead “without fear of any criminal or administrative sanctions against the organisers or participants.” In response, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he would “urge the European Commission to refrain from interfering in the law enforcement affairs of member states, where it has no role to play.”