When Vladimir Putin sent at least 19 drones into Poland last week, the Russian
president was delivering a message: He’s not planning to end his war against the
West anytime soon.
The Russian incursion into NATO airspace follows weeks of aerial attacks in
Ukraine that killed dozens of civilians, damaged buildings housing the EU and
British delegations and struck for the first time a government building in
central Kyiv.
Far from being ready to strike a peace deal with Ukraine under pressure from
U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin has pegged his political survival to a
simmering conflict with the United States and its allies.
“Putin is the president of war,” said Nikolai Petrov, a senior analyst at the
London-based New Eurasian Strategies Center. “He has no interest in ending it.”
Having fashioned himself as a wartime leader, going back to being a peacetime
president would be tantamount to a demotion. “No matter what the conditions are,
he cannot give up that role,” Petrov said.
As Putin’s full-scale assault on Ukraine drags toward its fourth year, the
Russian president arguably has the most cause for optimism since the early days
of the war when the Kremlin hoped to capture the country in a matter of days.
With Ukrainian forces hamstrung by a lack of weapons and manpower, Russia has
been grinding deeper into the country.
But Moscow’s progress has been slow — and costly. The Kremlin’s armed forces
have suffered an estimated one million casualties and the conflict has taken its
toll on the Russian economy, which threatens to tip into recession.
And yet, politically, ending the conflict comes with risks.
The Kremlin’s tight control over the media and the internet would likely allow
it to sell a peace deal to most Russians as a victory. But that’s not who the
Russian president will be worrying about.
With Russia’s liberal opposition decimated, a small but vocal group of
nationalists now presents the biggest threat to his rule, said Petrov. And he
has promised them a grandiose victory, not only over Ukraine but over what the
Kremlin calls “the collective West.”
“There’s a desire among the hawkish part of the military-political establishment
to destroy NATO,” Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat now a senior
fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told DW’s Russian service. “To
show NATO is worthless.”
Since Putin met with Trump in Alaska last month in what the U.S. president had
touted as a summit dedicated to striking a ceasefire, Moscow has ramped up its
campaign of hybrid warfare against Europe, according to military analysts.
Before Wednesday’s incursion, Russian drones had repeatedly ventured into Polish
airspace from neighboring Belarus, circling cities before turning back. In
August, a Russian drone crashed some 100 kilometers southwest of Warsaw.
According to WELT, a sister publication of POLITICO in the Axel Springer Group,
five of the drones that crossed into Poland were on a direct flight path toward
a NATO base before being intercepted by Dutch Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets.
In an opinion piece published two days before the drones crossed into Poland,
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, accused Helsinki
of planning an attack, threatening that any assault “could lead to the collapse
of Finnish statehood — once and for all.”
Analysts noted the article’s rhetoric resembled the Kremlin’s talking points
ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Moscow has also begun to shift vital industries, including shipbuilding, to the
east of the country, away from its border with NATO, Petrov pointed out. On
Friday, Russia began carrying out large-scale military exercises with Belarus,
including just across the Polish border. The exercises are expected to conclude
on Tuesday.
“Whatever Putin achieves in Ukraine, the confrontation with the West will not
end there; it will continue in various forms,” said Petrov. “Including
militarily.”
With actions like the incursion into Poland, Putin is issuing a warning to Trump
and European leaders discussing providing security guarantees for Kyiv after a
potential peace deal, said Kirill Rogov, founder of the think tank Re:Russia.
“Putin showed that he can attack NATO countries today and they have no defense
systems in place,” he said.
Trump’s mixed signaling on his commitment to NATO and his unwillingness to stick
to his own deadlines when it comes to imposing sanctions on Moscow give Putin
the confidence that he can get away with it.
For the Russian president, “it’s now or never,” Baunov added.
Incursions like the one in Poland are intended to chip away at the Western
military alliance’s commitment to collective defense, with small offensives that
test NATO’s willingness to respond.
The hope, said Baunov, is to reveal the military alliance as a toothless tiger.
So far, the reaction from Washington has fed into those fears.
On Thursday, Trump echoed Moscow’s talking points, telling reporters that “it
could have been a mistake.”
The Kremlin has dismissed accusations that the drones were a deliberate
provocation. The Russian defense ministry said there “had been no plans to
target facilities” in Poland.
Belarus, which served as a launchpad for some of the drones according to Polish
officials, said the incursion could have been the result of a mishap due to
“electronic jamming.”
“This is typical Putin-style trolling and probing,” said Rogov. “He likes things
to be ambivalent so that they can be interpreted either as deliberate or
accidental.”
Tag - UK defense
Blockages in the technology innovation pipeline and digital skills shortages
were just some of the topics discussed by industry stakeholders during a
DSEI-hosted roundtable held in July.
Chaired by the UK minister for defense procurement, Maria Eagle, attendees
included the likes of KX, Forcys, Dell and Amazon Web Services, all of which are
attending DSEI UK 2025.
The theme of the roundtable was ‘developing defense technology at pace to meet
modern battlefield requirements’, a key theme at this year’s DSEI UK. Under the
banner of this overarching theme, four sub-themes were discussed by the group as
company representatives directed questions and suggestions toward the minister.
The minister opened the proceedings by outlining the priorities of the UK’s
Ministry of Defence (MoD), calling the current moment a “pivotal” one for UK
defense as the country looks to return to warfighting readiness.
Technology will be central to this move and the UK is set on becoming a leading
“tech-enabled defense superpower by 2035,” she said, with priorities based on
the lessons learned in Ukraine. Changes like these will require some changes in
the government’s approach to technology, though.
“We’ve got to innovate at the speed of technology … there’s no point taking six
years to get to contract on a drone — you’d just be contracting to put it in the
museum,” she added.
> We’ve got to innovate at the speed of technology … there’s no point taking six
> years to get to contract on a drone — you’d just be contracting to put it in
> the museum.
Changing the way the UK government acquires and utilizes innovative defense
technology at speed and scale will require stronger collaboration between
government and industry, however, and there is still some way to go to ensure
this relationship works, according to industry stakeholders at the roundtable.
Bolstering the innovation pipeline
A major hurdle for defense firms is navigating the ‘valley of death’ — the time
between developing an initial concept and the point at which the company starts
to see returns on its investment. Businesses need considerable support to stay
liquid and avoid bankruptcy in this period.
“I think part of the challenge that we’ve identified is taking an operational
concept demonstrator, which we’ve been involved with in defense, and bringing
that into core [military programs],” a representative from KX, a software
company based in Northern Ireland, said.
“[It’s] the valley of death or the cup of opportunity, as I call it — and nobody
seems to be drinking from that cup,” the representative said.
“A lot of attention goes to the SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] and
the concept demonstration, and the primes get a huge amount of attention at the
other end of the scale, but dragging those concept demonstrators into a core
program, that seems to be a key challenge, and it would be great to understand
how that can be accelerated so that concepts don’t just wither on the vine.”
Eagle recognized that concept demonstrators are sometimes shelved with “no
follow up,” noting that the “valley of death has been a big problem.”
To address this, the UK is “establishing UK innovation,” with the goal of
getting “new ideas and concepts, and new ways of doing things to the
warfighter.”
Company representatives and moderator gathered at DSEI UK roundtable.
Is there enough support for SMEs?
Another portion of the roundtable focused on how SMEs position in the defense
ecosystem can be further supported, particularly by other key stakeholders such
as the UK MoD and DSEI UK.
Eagle noted the UK government’s plans to establish an SME hub in the “not too
[distant] future” to provide smaller defense tech companies with assistance for
working in the sector and with the MoD.
A representative from Forcys welcomed plans to establish an SME hub but did push
back against the minister, arguing that many of these initiatives designed to
fund innovation do not come with “sufficient money.”
“The average DASA [Defence and Security Accelerator] award is £50,000 to
£100,000 — its buttons to what’s actually required to develop something at pace
and really develop it properly, rather than just playing into it,” the
representative argued.
The representative also rallied against the problems faced by Forcys due to its
size, given it is defined neither as an SME nor a prime. This means it doesn’t
get the support infrastructure afforded to smaller firms or the advantages that
come with having the scale of a prime.
The future of dual use and next-gen skills issues
Looking ahead, stakeholders at the roundtable also discussed what the future
might look like for the defense industry, given the changing nature of dual-use
technology and the concerning digital skills gaps in the sector.
> Stakeholders at the roundtable also discussed what the future might look like
> for the defense industry, given the changing nature of dual-use technology and
> the concerning digital skills gaps.
Understanding the defense supply chain is crucial on the dual-use front,
according to a representative from PQShield. They pointed to the untapped
potential in dual-use, explaining that many companies don’t know how to sell to
the defense industry.
“We’re struggling to pitch it to defense right now because we don’t know the
best place to go,” the representative said, speaking about PQShield’s
cryptography products and solutions.
Discussion also turned to the difficulties the defense industry faces in
acquiring workers with the right skills or having access to graduates and those
early in their careers.
“We’re being outgunned by gaming, by fintech, by the finance industry — we’re
not getting the best people. We say we do, we don’t because we just simply can’t
pay for them,” said Rob Taylor, founder of training technology firm 4GD.
Adding to this point, the representative from KX said that they would like to
see schools doing more to incentivize students to seek out technology jobs. A
good approach would be to start from year seven or even younger, they said.
Eagle agreed that the skills issue is “tremendously important,” adding that the
UK’s skills system has not worked as well as it could for some time and that
many industries are suffering the same skills shortages.
“As we’ve had the last few years, where you’ve got a war on our doorstep and
things like that going on, there’s been a shift back towards understanding the
value of defense. But there’s some ways still to go, so we’ve got more work to
do on that,” Eagle said.
BERLIN — The European Commission’s plan to supercharge the continent’s defense
industry through a new joint funding tool may violate EU treaties, according to
a legal analysis by Germany’s parliament obtained by POLITICO.
The confidential report, dated April 30, by the Bundestag’s legal analysts adds
that the EU’s €150 billion Security Action For Europe loans-for-weapons
regulation may also deliver limited economic value.
“In the context of the establishment of SAFE, questions also arise concerning
the compatibility of this instrument with the Union law prohibition on the use
of EU funds for operational measures with military or defense implications,” the
analysis states, referencing Article 41(2) of the Treaty on European Union.
SAFE would offer long-term EU-backed loans — up to 45 years, with a 10-year
grace period — to member states for defense procurement and industrial projects.
It is being advanced under Article 122 of the EU treaties, typically used for
economic emergencies.
But the Bundestag report notes this legal workaround “is not universally
accepted,” and warns that “even the financing of defense-related goods and
services” could fall under the treaty ban — especially when “intended for
Ukraine and not for EU member states.”
SAFE was approved last month by member countries, including Germany. The
parliamentary report is unlikely to have an impact on German government policy.
The German defense ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
The report’s criticism goes beyond legal concerns. The authors, made up of legal
and policy experts, raise doubts about SAFE’s economic impact, pointing to
“estimated expenditure multipliers between 0.4 and 1.0” — lower than for other
public investments like infrastructure or education.
They caution that “a significant portion of the positive effects of increased
defense spending may occur abroad, particularly in the USA,” depending on
supplier location.
SAFE’s design includes a “Buy European” clause allowing only 35 percent of the
value of the weapons to come from manufacturers beyond the EU, Ukraine or
European Free Trade Association countries. While intended to strengthen the
European defense base, the report highlights internal EU divisions and risks to
defense partners.
“Member states have expressed differing views on whether countries such as
Canada or the United Kingdom … should be allowed to participate on an equal
footing,” it notes. “Turkey and Serbia … are not mentioned at all.”
SAFE is open to EU and EFTA countries and Ukraine. EU applicants and countries,
like the U.K., that have signed security pacts with the bloc can join common
procurements. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Brussels on Monday to
sign a similar deal. However, as the U.K. is now finding out, it’s not clear
what level of access third countries will have.
The German legal service does not call for scrapping the initiative, but its
tone suggests SAFE is far from settled policy. Its conclusion: “The
macroeconomic and industrial policy effectiveness of such investments therefore
depends strongly on their localization.”
First published in Columbia Missourian, United States, June 4, 2025 | By John
Darkow First published on CagleCartoons.com, June 4, 2025 | By Malcolm McGookin
First published on CagleCartoons.com, June 3, 2025 | By Malcolm McGookin
NATO allies cannot rely on the United States to defend them and need to step up
themselves, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said.
“The United States is proud to be here, to stand with our allies, but our
message is gonna continue to be clear: It’s deterrence and peace through
strength, but it cannot be reliance,” Hegseth told reporters ahead of a NATO
defense ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
“It cannot and will not be reliance on America. It can’t just be U.S.
capabilities,” he said.
The military alliance’s defense ministers are gathering in Brussels a few weeks
before a high-stakes summit of NATO leaders in The Hague.
The ministers at Thursday’s meeting are widely expected to agree on updated
capability targets — meaning new requirements for military equipment — and to
pave the way for a deal later this month on a new defense spending target of 5
percent of gross domestic product.
In recent months, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on
Washington’s commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause, known as Article 5.
“Our commitment to Article 5 remains, but we also think it’s reasonable that our
allies be also committed to Article 3,” the U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew
Whitaker, told reporters on Wednesday, referring to the military alliance’s
requirement to build capacity to resist an armed attack.
Hegseth insisted that all NATO ally had to their part in the continent’s
defense. “The reason I’m here is to make sure every country in NATO understands
every shoulder has to be to the plow, every country has to contribute at that
level of 5 percent,” he said, adding that he is confident an agreement will be
reached in The Hague.
U.K. King Charles III has invited French President Emmanuel Macron for a state
visit in May, months before a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump that is
expected to take place in September, The Sunday Times reported.
The first state visit by the French leader is being planned amid British Prime
Minister Keir Starmer’s efforts to relaunch relations with the European Union
years after Brexit, while the U.K.’s historic American allies drift away and
turn looking inward under Trump’s presidency.
Macron and Starmer have in recent months led a “coalition of the willing”
composed by European countries seeking to agree on security guarantees for
Ukraine in case a ceasefire is achieved with Russia.
As Macron schmoozes with the king in Windsor Castle, the U.K. and the EU are
expected to seal a defense and security pact at a London summit on May 19 to
boost military spending across Europe.
While defense has served as the first steppingstone in efforts to rebuild
EU-U.K. ties, its implications on trade loom large, as the pact could pave the
way for further negotiations such as an agri-food standards agreement to reduce
trade bureaucracy and EU plans like improved mobility for young people and
students.
In fact, defense pact is hinging on whether the U.K. will make concessions on
fishing rights in English waters for EU fleets.
Both sides are expected to use next month’s meeting to reach a common
understanding of which issues will be part of Starmer’s wider U.K.-EU relations
relaunch.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Trump recently suggested he would visit
Britain in September, after Starmer extended an invitation by King Charles
during his visit to Washington in February.
Trump has in recent weeks slapped hefty tariffs on countries around the world,
including 10 percent duties for U.K and EU products across the board. The U.S.
president hit the pause button on other heavier reciprocal tariffs to give space
to negotiate new trade deals.
LONDON — Sometimes it’s better not to know what your so-called friends say
behind your back. Case in point: When your closest ally calls you “pathetic,”
accuses you of “free-loading” and says you should be made to pay for something
you never knew they were going to do.
British and European officials and diplomats reacted with a mix of hurt and
anger to the leak of private messages between top figures in Donald Trump’s U.S.
government about plans for air strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen.
According to The Atlantic, whose editor-in-chief was mistakenly added to the
high-level group chat, Vice President JD Vance said he hated “bailing out Europe
again” by launching the military action to protect shipping, mainly to benefit
European trade. Defense secretary Pete Hegseth replied to Vance: “I fully share
your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”
A U.K. diplomat said they had watched aghast as the spectacular leak emerged on
Monday night, describing it as “wild.” The diplomat noted that it underlined the
impression that Vance was the driver of U.S. hostility towards Europe. This, the
person said, forced others including Trump into a tougher position because he
“doesn’t want to look weaker than Vance.”
In public, U.K. ministers and officials tried to minimize the damage from the
revelations, insisting the alliance with the U.S. was strong and communications
remained secure.
But Britain’s former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said some in the Trump
administration clearly need re-educating about their allies. It was wrong of
them to say European militaries had done nothing to address the problem of
Iran-backed Houthis targeting commercial shipping, he said.
The leaked messages even included a conversation about how to make Europe
“remunerate” the U.S. for the cost of the military action. In fact, the planned
air strikes detailed in the private Signal app group were supported by British
refueling aircraft, according to reports.
“I agree Europe must do more on security,” Shapps posted on X. “But [Prime
Minister] Sir Keir [Starmer] should remind USA the UK led from the front. I
authorised 4 RAF strikes on the Houthis & the Royal Navy defended Red Sea
shipping. Our forces risked their lives to protect trade. Some in DC need
reminding.”
Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, a British opposition party, said: “JD
Vance and his mates clearly aren’t fit to run a group chat, let alone the
world’s strongest military force. It has to make our security services nervous
about the intelligence we’re sharing with them.”
Elsewhere in Europe, the tone among diplomats was more of grief and
resignation.
Any hope they may have held that Vance and his colleagues were putting on a
public show of aggression toward Europe while being more sympathetic in private
vanished.
“It’s sobering to see the way they speak about Europe when they think no one is
listening,” one EU diplomat said, granted anonymity, like others, to give a
candid view. “But at the same time this isn’t surprising … It’s just that now we
see their reasoning in all its undiplomatic glory.”
An EU official said Vance “happens to be the ideologue this time around but he
is bound to make mistakes and eventually drop the ball.” After that, at some
point the U.S. will return to being a reliable partner, the official said.
A second EU diplomat agreed that history suggested America would one day return
to its role as a solid ally for Europe. “For the time being, and despite the
sometimes nice diplomatic words, trust is broken,” the diplomat said. “There is
no alliance without trust. So I think that Europe has to do much more because it
has no other choice.”
On the charging the Europeans for the operation, a senior EU official added: “We
haven’t received the bill yet.”
Noah Keate and Matt Honeycombe-Foster contributed reporting from London. Clea
Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris.
LONDON — Military chiefs from about 30 Kyiv allies will hold a fresh
“operational planning meeting” in London on Thursday to game out how they would
commit peacekeeping troops to a post-war Ukraine.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the British-French-led talks after he
hosted a call Saturday morning with the leaders of Ukraine, 25 other allied
nations, NATO, the EU and the European Council — but not the U.S.
Starmer, with French President Emmanuel Macron, is pulling together a “coalition
of the willing” of allied nations to protect Ukraine after any peace deal. But
major questions remain about what that will look like if a deal is signed
without U.S. aerial intelligence and air cover, as the U.K. and French leaders
are lobbying the White House to provide.
Starmer told fellow leaders that allied nations should be “prepared to defend
any deal ourselves.”
He added that he believed “sooner or later” Russian President Vladimir Putin
would have to “come to the table and engage in serious discussion, but … we
can’t sit back and simply wait for that to happen. We have to keep pushing
forward and preparing for peace, and a peace that will be secure and that will
last,” he said.
Yet in a Downing Street press conference Saturday, Starmer continued to insist
that the plan would need a U.S. security backstop to work. “I’ve been clear that
it needs to be done in conjunction with the United States,” he said. “The
position on doing this in conjunction with the United States hasn’t changed.”
MILITARIES TO GAME OUT DETAILS
Thursday’s military talks will be the second round likely to happen without
Europe’s traditional U.S. ally, following discussions between senior military
officials from 37 nations in Paris last Tuesday.
Starmer said the leaders on Saturday “agreed to accelerate our practical work to
support a potential deal.” Thursday’s military meeting will aim to “put stronger
robust plans in place to swing in behind a peace deal and guarantee Ukraine’s
future security,” he said.
“Now is the time to engage in discussion on a mechanism to manage and monitor a
full ceasefire,” the prime minister added.
Those joining Saturday’s call included the leaders of France, Finland, Poland,
Germany, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, as well European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council chief Antonio Costa. NATO
Secretary-General Mark Rutte spoke on the call.
Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has positioned herself as
a European bridge to U.S. President Donald Trump, also joined the call despite
earlier reports that she would not take part. Turkish leader Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan also participated.
‘NOT GOOD ENOUGH’
The U.K. prime minister said Ukraine was “the party of peace” after Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — who joined Saturday’s call — “committed to a
30-day unconditional ceasefire.” By contrast, “Putin is the one trying to delay”
a ceasefire, Starmer said.
In a televised address Thursday, Russia’s president laid out a raft of caveats
for accepting the proposal put forward by the U.S. and Ukraine to end the
Kremlin’s war. Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said Washington has
“some cautious optimism” that a ceasefire deal could succeed.
“The ‘yes, but’ from Russia is not good enough,” said Starmer. He said his
message to Putin was “that this is the moment the guns fall silent, that the
barbaric attacks on Ukraine once and for all stop, and agree to a ceasefire
now.”
The leaders also “discussed further sanctions that have got nothing to do with
[frozen Russian] assets, which we will take forward as a result of this
morning’s discussion,” Starmer said.
Zelenskyy told leaders “the path to peace must begin unconditionally. And if
Russia doesn’t want this, then strong pressure must be applied until they do,”
he posted on X.
Former White House adviser Fiona Hill, who is part of a team drafting Britain’s
review of defense capability, warned this week that “there’s a genuine rupture
in the relationship between the U.S. and its allies at this point.” She told the
Foreign Affairs podcast that Putin’s behavior had made it “much more likely”
that European countries, Japan and South Korea would be “rushing to get a
nuclear weapon,” due to fears they can no longer rely on the U.S.
Von der Leyen posted on X following the call: “We reiterate our support to
Ukraine’s agreement to a ceasefire. Now Russia has to show that it is willing to
support a ceasefire leading to a just and lasting peace. In the meantime, we
will support strengthening Ukraine and its armed forces following our ‘porcupine
strategy’.”
BRUSSELS — In the end, it was the Belgians who put it best. “It’s usually the
case that if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” said Bart De Wever,
the Belgian prime minister.
When it comes to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, Donald Trump has already started
carving up Ukraine for dinner with Vladimir Putin, and there’s no sign he won’t
go on to eat the European Union for dessert.
On Thursday, the leaders of the EU took their first steps toward trying to
disrupt the strongman’s banquet before it’s too late.
All 27 EU leaders agreed to do exactly what Trump has been demanding for years:
Radically increase their defenses with investment — potentially totaling €800
billion — that might just mean they can take care of themselves without
“freeloading” (or relying) on American help.
With one predictable exception in Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, they even pledged to
dig deeper into their pockets and urgently send Kyiv more weapons and cash, as
Trump cuts military supplies and stops sharing secret intelligence with
Ukraine.
In the next two weeks, officials in Brussels will frantically work up the
details of the plan. If it goes ahead, it will allow EU governments to flex
their spending rules to plunge funds into all kinds of military capabilities —
from missiles and ammunition to drones, electronic warfare and air defenses. The
leaders (apart from Orbán) also demanded the European Commission urgently bring
forward the promised money for Ukraine’s immediate war needs.
Another summit will be held on March 20-21 when these same issues will be
discussed again, with the aim of agreeing to more concrete actions.
PREVENTING WORLD WAR 3
By the EU’s standards, this is quick, officials insist. At an informal summit a
month ago, they were talking about moving in the direction of a plan to boost
their defenses by June.
The EU is undergoing a transformation, from a peace project that grew out of the
rubble of the Second World War into a defensive alliance tooling up to prevent a
third.
But the reality is that for all the EU’s efforts — and the steps taken in recent
days are certainly not meaningless — the real conversations about Ukraine and
the future of European security are taking place elsewhere.
In almost pleading tones, the leaders set out their “principles” for a peace
deal between Ukraine and Russia in the summit’s final communique. They included
the now well-worn lines that “there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without
Ukraine” and, rather forlornly, that “there can be no negotiations that affect
European security without Europe’s involvement.”
For the avoidance of doubt, they added: “Ukraine’s, Europe’s, transatlantic and
global security are intertwined.” Try telling that to Trump.
To be fair to the EU, they already did.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, traveled to Washington last week to make her
case. But Trump’s new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, refused to make time to
meet her, in what was seen as a blunt (and far from isolated) snub.
Trump himself has been clear about his disdain for the EU and has so far not
even bothered to hold a detailed discussion with European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen since returning to office in January.
In more heartening news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the EU
leaders over lunch that his team had resumed talks with Trump’s officials.
Later, more signs emerged of a thaw in relations between Trump and Ukraine after
last week’s Oval Office onslaught: Zelenskyy said he would be traveling to Saudi
Arabia for discussions on a peace plan with the U.S.
Trump himself said he would be heading to Saudi, observing that he believed
Ukraine now wants a deal, though he did not confirm that he would be aiming to
get an agreement over the line next week.
One thing seems clear enough: There is virtually no chance that the EU will be
invited.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron look
set to continue to take the lead on sending troops into Ukraine to keep the
peace, despite a vague reference in the EU summit conclusions to exploring
whether the the bloc’s defense structures can play a role.
THE WILLING
Starmer will be among the non-EU allies who will get a briefing from von der
Leyen and European Council President António Costa on the summit discussions in
a video call on Friday morning.
The prominent involvement of the U.K., which left the EU five years ago, is yet
another sign that the formal structures that have served to organize Western
priorities for decades are being overtaken by events.
Starmer’s officials claim around 20 countries are ready to join the European
peacekeeping mission in some form.
Kallas, the EU’s most senior diplomatic representative, recognized the new
ad-hoc reality on Thursday when she said support for Ukraine would be “a
coalition of the willing,” even around the formal summit table in Brussels (a
point Hungary proved again).
But as Kallas herself can testify after Rubio’s refusal to meet her, the biggest
question is whether Trump is willing to do anything to help Europe at all.
The United Kingdom and France will work on a Ukraine peace plan and mediate
between Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump,
after a meeting between the two spiralled into a row in the White House, British
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Sunday.
“We’ve now agreed that the United Kingdom, along with France and possibly one or
two others, will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting, and then
we’ll discuss that plan with the United States,” Starmer said in an interview
with the BBC.
European leaders are scrambling to find a way forward after Friday’s disastrous
meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump in the Oval Office. European and Canadian
leaders are set to meet in London later Sunday for a security summit on Ukraine.
Under the plan outlined by Starmer, France and the U.K. would lead talks on
building a “coalition of the willing” to offer security guarantees to Ukraine in
case a cease-fire is reached. The two countries have for weeks been involved in
building a proposal to deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after a hoped-for
truce has been negotiated with Russia.
But the talks have stalled due to the uncertainty over whether the Trump
administration would provide a so-called U.S. backstop that would deter Russian
President Vladimir Putin from sending his forces against Ukraine again.
“I’m not criticizing anyone here, but rather than move at the pace of … every
single country in Europe, which in the end would be quite a slow pace, I do
think we’ve probably got to get to a coalition of the willing now,” he said.
In Sunday’s interview, Starmer admitted he had not received assurances from
Washington that the Trump administration would back European troops deployed to
Ukraine.
Both Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have been engaged in intense
diplomacy since the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy spiralled into a
dismaying argument in the Oval Office on Friday, with U.S. Vice President JD
Vance accusing Kyiv of failing to show sufficient gratitude. A planned press
conference and the signing of a minerals deal were cancelled after the fractious
encounter.
According to an official from the Elysée Palace, Macron has spoken with Trump,
Zelenskyy, Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the last 48 hours.
In an interview with the Sunday weekly the JDD, the French president said
coordination and “the need for action” would take place in London on Sunday, and
later at an EU summit in Brussels scheduled for Thursday.
Mason Boycott-Owen contributed reporting from London.