PARIS — In France, getting rid of governments is now about as commonplace as complaining about them. François Bayrou is bracing to become the latest prime minister to get the chop on Monday ― primarily because of discontent over his spending plans for next year ― leaving President Emmanuel Macron on the hunt for a fifth PM in less than two years. The political crisis could have ramifications far beyond the halls of power in Paris if lawmakers can’t figure out how to rein in runaway public spending and a massive budget deficit. Here’s everything you need to know about the drama ahead: HE’S DEFINITELY GOING, RIGHT? Yes, it’s pretty much nailed on that Bayrou will fall. Anything else would need a last-minute U-turn from a big chunk of opposition lawmakers, and that would be a massive shock. His fate seem sealed in the hours after he unveiled his plan for a confidence vote late last month, when leaders from the far-left France Unbowed, far-right National Rally and center-left Socialist Party all announced they would vote to bring down the government. Neither Bayrou’s PR blitz nor his meetings with political leaders last week appear to have moved the needle. SO WHAT’S HAPPENING MONDAY? Bayrou is delivering what’s known as a d´eclaration de politique générale (general policy statement), a speech traditionally given at the outset of a prime minister’s tenure to lay out an incoming government’s platform and priorities. (It’s a bit like a state of the union.) The longtime centrist is using this one to make the case for his unpopular 2026 budget. Prime ministers often follow their addresses with a confidence vote to ensure support for their agendas, though they aren’t constitutionally obliged to do so. Bayrou didn’t hold a vote after his January DPG, nor did any of his predecessors during Macron’s second term. Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA This time, he will. Bayrou has tried to frame the vote as a referendum on the need for drastic action to balance the books and has quibbled with the French media’s framing of Monday’s drama as a confidence vote or censure. But in practice, that’s what it is. HOW WILL THE DAY UNFOLD? Bayrou’s speech will begin at 3 p.m. in the National Assembly in Paris, France’s more-powerful lower house of parliament. Representatives from each political party will follow, with each of their speaking times determined by how many seats they have. Then the prime minister will have the opportunity to deliver closing remarks. Voting should take place around 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. and should last about 30 minutes, after which the president of the National Assembly will announce the results. Macron’s office has not yet said whether he will speak following the vote. When ex-Prime Minister Michel Barnier was toppled in December, Macron waited 24 hours to deliver a primetime address. HOW DID WE GET HERE? Let’s rewind to June 9, 2024, when the far-right National Rally scored a huge win in the European election. Macron responded by dissolving parliament, a massive bet that backfired in spectacular fashion. In the ensuing vote, an alliance of left-leaning political parties won more seats than any other political force, but fell short of an absolute majority. After nearly two months without a proper government, Macron’s centrists and the center-right conservatives agreed to form a minority coalition led by former Brexit negotiator Barnier. Barnier lasted three months, taken down in December over his plan to trim the 2025 budget to help rein in runaway public spending. Macron replaced Barnier with Bayrou, who in July presented a plan to squeeze next year’s budget by €43.8 billion to get the budget deficit down from a projected 5.4 percent of gross domestic product this year to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2026. Opposition lawmakers howled in fury at the plan, which included axing two public holidays. In late August, as the French started to trickle back from their summer vacations, Bayrou stunned the country by announcing that he would hold a confidence vote on his spending plans before what were expected to be tense negotiations. SHOULD I CARE? Yes, because the ensuing crisis in the eurozone’s second-biggest economy could drag the entire bloc into a debt-fueled financial crisis, according to Bayrou. France was able to stave off an economic catastrophe during the pandemic and when energy prices shot up at the outset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, in part thanks to massive public spending. Finding a consensus on reining in expenditures has proven difficult, and lawmakers are loath to tighten their belts as aggressively as Bayrou wants. His plan would bring France’s budget deficit down from a projected 5.6 percent of GDP this year to 4.6 percent in 2026. The ultimate goal is to bring that figure down to 3 percent, as required by EU rules, by 2029. Financial institutions and rating agencies have repeatedly warned of consequences should France fail to act, some of which are no longer hypothetical. Borrowing costs are rising, with the yield on France’s benchmark 10-year bonds ― a useful indicator of faith in a country’s finances ― drifting away from historically safe Germany’s yields and toward those of Italy, a country long synonymous with reckless spending and unsustainable debt.   Getting the French to tighten their belts has so far proven to be Mission Impossible, but the situation is not yet so dire that it’s time to call in the IMF. Bayrou, however, is betting his political future that history will prove him right.

PARIS — Marine Le Pen is primed to play a major role in toppling French Prime Minister François Bayrou on Monday — but he will, at least, leave his post untarnished by a futile attempt to strike political trade-offs with the far-right leader. That’s a lesson Bayrou learned from his predecessor, Michel Barnier. Facing exactly the same challenge of trying to force through a painful round of billions of euros of budgetary belt-tightening, Barnier tried to haggle with Le Pen. It ended in disaster, and he became the Fifth Republic’s shortest-lived prime minister when he departed in December last year. Bayrou, who still has his eye on a long-shot bid for the presidency, is essentially exiting on his own terms, while Barnier is still smarting from being humiliated by Le Pen. Le Pen sealed Barnier’s political execution over an elegant Italian lunch in early December with her telegenic protégé Jordan Bardella.   In something of a last-minute Hail Mary to save his trimmed-down social security budget package, Barnier agreed to backtrack on cuts to medical reimbursements, something Le Pen had demanded the previous day. He even put out a cringeworthy statement, spelling out that it was a concession to Le Pen. Le Pen said she would go off and think about it. Le Pen and Bardella decided to do that thinking at the chic white-tablecloth Marco Polo restaurant in Paris’ 6th arrondissement, a favorite haunt for politicians and actors near the French Senate.  The two sat inside the dimly lit interior accented by rich wood and scarlet velvet and weighed the options in front of them. They decided it was non.  After her meal, Le Pen phoned the prime minister back to say, “I’ve got good and bad news for you,” Barnier recounted in an interview with POLITICO.  She was — confusingly — dropping a demand she had never made, Barnier remembers. But she wanted more measures that he couldn’t stomach.   “I said: Stop, this is not serious … I’m not going to belittle myself,” he said.   FRUITLESS NEGOTIATIONS For Barnier, it was a brutal defeat. Two days later he was kicked to the curb by opposition lawmakers after failing to get them to agree on a plan to put France’s social security finances in order.  Bayrou is almost certain to suffer the same ignominy. But he seems to have spared himself weeks of fruitless negotiations. For Barnier, it was a brutal defeat. Two days later he was kicked to the curb by opposition lawmakers after failing to get them to agree on a plan to put France’s social security finances in order. | Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty Images “Barnier emerged tortured and weakened from his premiership,” said a government adviser, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. “This way he [Bayrou] spares himself the damage that was visited on Barnier.”  Though Bayrou may leave holding his head a bit higher than Barnier, it appears he too miscalculated by gambling Le Pen would be easier to control after her embezzlement conviction saw her banned from running for political office.   Le Pen’s party isn’t stopping at Bayrou. Her National Rally party is calling on President Emmanuel Macron to resign and wants a vote of no-confidence against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.   It’s a far cry from the early days of Le Pen’s tenure at the helm of the National Rally, when she tried to remake the party’s image into one of a reasonable, respectable political force open to compromise that was ready to govern.  LE PEN’S PIVOT  During Barnier’s first weeks as prime minister, a path toward bringing the National Rally into the fold seemed both feasible and inevitable.  The surprise snap elections in 2024 ended with the National Rally holding a record number of seats, so ignoring them was impossible — especially considering that in naming Barnier prime minister, Macron had spurned the pan-left coalition that won the most seats in the contest, but fell short of an absolute majority.  Though Bayrou may leave holding his head a bit higher than Barnier, it appears he too miscalculated by gambling Le Pen would be easier to control after her embezzlement conviction saw her banned from running for political office. | Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA So Barnier began his tenure with a risky move: He told parliament that he would respect and engage with “all political forces,” effectively stepping over the invisible cordon sanitaire firewall that for years saw mainstream political parties band together against the far right.  For a long time, Barnier’s team thought the strategy was working. Le Pen’s trajectory, many thought, would follow the same path taken by Italian premier Giorgia Meloni from the post-fascist fringes of the right closer to the mainstream.  “We had a real relationship of confidence,” said one of Barnier’s advisers.  But the honeymoon in this marriage of convenience didn’t last long. There were soon disagreements about legislation and top jobs in parliament, according to insiders.  The Le Pen camp felt misled.  “Barnier assured them that they wouldn’t be despised, so National Rally lawmakers believed him — at first,” said a high-level conservative adviser who knows the National Rally well.  Le Pen sealed Barnier’s political execution over an elegant Italian lunch in early December with her telegenic protégé Jordan Bardella. | Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA But while Barnier said he would treat the National Rally like any other party, he kept them at arm’s length, meeting Le Pen only twice during his time as prime minister. His team “were afraid of being sullied” by the stain of working too closely with the far right, said the same adviser.  Barnier weathered the opprobrium of dealing with the National Rally, but never fully grasped the party’s ambitions after becoming the largest single opposition party in the National Assembly, one National Rally senior adviser said.  Everything changed on Nov. 13, with Le Pen on trial on charges of embezzling European Parliament funds, when French prosecutors called on the judges to immediately ban her from running for public office for five years if convicted. She was eventually found guilty and handed the sentence  “They needed something, a way to take vengeance,” said Antoine Vermorel-Marques, a conservative lawmaker and Barnier protégé. “Barnier suffered the blowback.”  LESSONS LEARNED  Whether Le Pen could have been convinced to go down the Meloni path with Barnier remains unclear.  Barnier never appeared to fully grasp the power dynamics within the National Rally, and at times it seemed the two sides could not bridge the apparent cultural or even class divides between them.   “There was no proximity with the National Rally,” said Marie-Claire Carrère-Gée, a former minister from the Barnier government. “Even with the Socialists we were closer.” She noted that the veteran conservative had friends and was on first-name terms with politicians across the aisle.   Could it have gone differently? Unlikely, say insiders.  Vermorel-Marques said Barnier emerged from the debacle saying Le Pen was simply “dangerous.” One former National Rally politician said Barnier suffered his fate because Macron “had it coming” after naming a prime minister from a party that won a relatively small fraction of seats in the 2024 snap election.   “Someone needed to take the fall, so I took the fall, but all of this is very far from the interests of the nation,” Barnier said himself.   He insists he has no regrets and has learned his lesson. But while Bayrou may not have stumbled across the same tripwire, it’s still Le Pen who looks set to push him out on Monday.

PARIS — Early signals suggest Prime Minister François Bayrou’s gamble to hold a confidence vote will bring down his fragile minority government next month, amplifying the crisis that President Emmanuel Macron faces in trying to run France. Bayrou on Monday effectively dared his opponents to topple him on Sept. 8 over the need to slash France’s massive budget deficit. Most appear willing to call his bluff. The far-left France Unbowed, which has long sought Bayrou’s head, quickly announced it would move to bring down the government. So too will the center-left Socialists, who have lost patience with the longtime centrist. Even Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which had appeared to be waiting until budget negotiations began to wield the threat of ousting Bayrou, looks set to stick the knife in. Bayrou’s camp seemed to be taken aback by the far right’s decision. Someone close to the prime minister, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO they believed that Le Pen “wanted to let us do the dirty work” of balancing France’s books. Bayrou has survived several no-confidence motions since his appointment late last year thanks to abstentions from either the National Rally or the Socialists. With neither side now offering him a lifeline, Bayrou’s chances of survival have all but evaporated — unless he secures an improbable U-turn from his opponents.  If the Bayrou government falls, it’s up to Macron to make the next move. Here are his options, with their potential likelihood: APPOINT ANOTHER PRIME MINISTER Common ground in the National Assembly has proved elusive since snap elections in summer last year delivered a hung parliament comprised of three roughly equal blocs: a left-wing alliance, a marriage of convenience between centrists and conservatives; and the far right. Should Bayrou fall, he would be the second prime minister to be ousted since the election while trying to push through contentious spending plans. His predecessor, Michel Barnier, fell to a motion of no confidence just three months after being appointed. Appointing a third centrist or center-leaning prime minister may seem to meet Albert Einstein’s misattributed definition of insanity: doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. But Macron may have no choice if he wants to protect his legacy before French voters head to the polls for the next presidential election in 2027. One frequently discussed candidate is Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. The 39-year-old is a close Macron ally and a former member of the conservative Les Républicains party — which has been a key coalition partner for both Bayrou and Barnier. He’s also seen an smooth political operator who could talk to the far right.   Macron could also turn toward some from the center-left to get the Socialists to join a government coalition. Former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve’s name was brought up several times during past government transitions.   But the Socialists would likely ask for significant policy concessions from Macron and his allies such as increasing taxation, which the French president has vehemently opposed since his 2017 election, or reopening retirement reform talks. Deep divisions within the center-left force make it uncertain that all of its lawmakers would agree to back a coalition including their former rivals, especially with the presidential vote looking wide open. CALL NEW SNAP ELECTIONS Ever the political gambler, Macron could decide to roll the dice on another snap election to end the parliamentary gridlock. The problem, however, is dissolving parliament is exactly how French politics ended up in this mess in the first place. The political landscape hasn’t much changed since last summer, so elections could very well just deliver another hung parliament. Before Monday, Macron looked unlikely to send voters back to the polls. He has repeatedly, including as recently as last week, reiterated his wish for Bayrou to remain in office and for political leaders to work together. However, the chorus of critics calling for Macron to dissolve parliament is growing louder. Many think they can win, and it’s not inconceivable that one political force could snag an absolute majority. Socialist heavyweight Boris Vallaud said his party was preparing for Macron to call a new vote, and Le Pen wrote on X that “only a snap election will allow the French to choose their own destiny, one with the National Rally.” The longtime far-right icon’s statement was a bit surprising given that she is currently barred from standing in elections after being found guilty of embezzlement, a charge she denies and is appealing. RESIGN The chaos is fueling fresh calls from the political fringes for Macron to stand down —just as it did following the snap elections last summer. France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said his party would submit a long-shot parliamentary motion to remove Macron that seems doomed to fail. But veteran political commentators are broaching the subject and politicians are being quizzed on talk shows about whether they want Macron to go.   Macron has categorically denied he would ever consider an early exit. But France’s future hinges on the government’s ability to deliver a slimmed down 2026 budget to rein deficits and cut spending. Whatever happens next, it’s clear that the political chaos and dire state of France’s finances could easily morph into an explosive cocktail for the president. Anthony Lattier contributed to this report

PARIS  —  The European Union’s former chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is accusing his former boss Ursula von der Leyen of overseeing an “authoritarian drift” during her tenure leading the European Commission. In a new tell-all book out Wednesday chronicling his time in Brussels and brief stint as France’s prime minister, the 74-year-old said the drift “has increased a notch in the last six years with Ursula von der Leyen, who wants to decide everything.” Speaking to POLITICO before the book’s release, Barnier said that under von der Leyen, commissioners increasingly behaved like “super technocrats” rather than politicians. “There isn’t enough listening [in the Commission]. There isn’t enough listening to the people,” he said. Von der Leyen has long been accused of sidelining critics, promoting allies, governing through close aides and employing a Machiavellian divide-and-rule strategy during her years running the EU’s executive arm, which is made up of representatives from the bloc’s 27 member states. Barnier singled out excessive regulation and slow progress on integrating capital markets across the EU as major failures of the Commission during the von der Leyen years. The former French prime minister did, however, credit von der Leyen with successfully responding to the crises she faced, which have included the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Though Barnier and von der Leyen belong to the same political family, the conservative European People’s Party, they have bad blood that dates back to the last days of the Brexit negotiations. According to Barnier, von der Leyen sidelined him as talks with then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached the endgame in 2020. “I thought it would be normal, after the work I’d done, to be by her side in the last hours. But it was not the case,” he said. A spokesperson for the European Commission declined to comment. FISHY BUSINESS Barnier’s book, “What I Have Learnt from You,” mostly chronicles his long political career in Brussels and Paris, though there are brief mentions of his short stint leading France’s government last year. Barnier lasted just three months in that job, the shortest prime-ministerial tenure in modern French history. With the release of his book, his name is increasingly being mentioned in the French press as a possible, albeit long-shot, contender for the presidency in 2027. In Brussels, Barnier is best known for his work leading the Brexit task force and his catchphrase aimed at the British: “The clock is ticking.” Michel Barnier lasted just three months in that job, the shortest prime-ministerial tenure in modern French history. | Pool Photo by Francisco Seco via EPA As the Brexit deadline neared, Barnier wrote, von der Leyen appeared ready to sacrifice European fishermen in her quest to secure a trade deal with the United Kingdom. He observed that fishing became “a secondary, possibly even marginal” topic for her. Barnier goes on to describe how he had to get French President Emmanuel Macron to threaten to veto the deal if von der Leyen failed to get an agreement on fishing. Von der Leyen, he writes, also ignored his departure from the Commission in 2021. “Decidedly, we do not have the same concept of work and human relationships,” he said. Barnier, however, praised the EU-U.K. reset agreement signed last month, which will make it easier for British food to be imported and extended the fishing agreement for EU trawlers. “It’s a good idea, it’s in the common interest. We’ll need to get the details but on fishing it is balanced and correct,” he said.

PARIS — Getting ousted from government has not appeared to hinder Michel Barnier’s ambitions. Barnier, the former French prime minister whose government fell to a motion of no confidence after just three months, publicly opened the door Tuesday to running for president during the next election scheduled for 2027 in an interview with French media. Barnier, a well-known figure in London and Brussels for representing the European Union during the Brexit negotiations, has kept a low profile since setting the record for the shortest-ever tenure for a prime minister during France’s Fifth Republic, which was founded in 1958. Mounting a successful presidential bid after such an unceremonious end to his premiership is a long shot. The 74-year-old would need to make the case to French voters that he would be best placed to lead France in an increasingly uncertain global order despite having failed to navigate a fragmented political landscape domestically. Barnier ran for president in 2022, but fell at the first hurdle, placing third in his conservative Les Républicains party’s internal primary. The competition may be even stiffer this time around, as other centrists and conservative contenders appear to have the edge. A poll from Harris Interactive released last week shows Barnier enjoying less support than two other former prime ministers, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Within his own conservative party, Les Républicains, looms Bruno Retailleau, who has seen his approval rating surge since Barnier appointed him interior minister six months ago. During his interview, Barnier stopped short of formally announcing a run, but outlined what could be the basis for a presidential platform. He vowed to fight what he perceives as the French administration’s “powerlessness” on issues like state finances and immigration; tackle inflation; and streamline bureaucracy. Still, Barnier’s allies see arguments in his favor. A Les Républicains lawmaker close to Barnier stressed that that Barnier enjoyed a better approval rating than his centrist successor during his stint as head of government. “Michel isn’t ruling anything out,” the member of parliament told POLITICO. For his part, Barnier said he hopes to “be useful” and act as “a solution for the unity of [his political] camp.” “The campaign starts now,” he said. Pauline de Saint Remy and Elisa Bertholomey contributed to this report.

PARIS ― France’s credit rating was affirmed by Fitch Ratings late Friday, though the rating agency maintained its negative outlook for the country, citing the government’s challenge of bringing down the swollen public deficit. “Political fragmentation complicates France’s ability to implement sustainable fiscal consolidation,” Fitch wrote in a statement as it maintained its rating on France at AA-. The agency also cited “rising international protectionism” and weaker growth in Germany, France’s biggest trading partner, as risk factors. Fitch forecast that French government debt will increase to more than 120 percent of gross domestic product by the end of 2028, higher than the agency’s previous forecast last October. The French government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou is trying to finally rein in the country’s massive public deficit even as France and Europe brace for the economic impact of a transatlantic trade war. After months of political turmoil, last month France belatedly adopted a budget law for 2025. The government aims to reduce the government deficit from 6.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2024 to 5.4 percent this year. That’s still significantly above the 3 percent deficit limit imposed by the EU’s spending rules. The country is under a so-called excessive deficit procedure in Brussels for breaching the budgetary rules in 2023, but the European Commission has already given a first green light to Bayrou’s deficit-reduction efforts. The French finance ministry said “we take note of Fitch’s decision,” adding that “reducing our deficits is a priority.” “The French government is determined to continue implementing the public finance consolidation path initiated by the 2025 Finance Act, and to do so over the long term,” the ministry said in a statement. But Fitch forecast that “deficits will remain sizeable” through 2027, “given the lack of detail on medium-term fiscal consolidation and expected political challenges to getting the 2026 budget approved,” according to its statement. “Political deadlock and polarization have intensified in France following the 2024 snap elections and collapse of the Barnier government over the 2025 budget bill,” Fitch said. “The current center-right coalition led by Prime Minister Bayrou lacks an absolute majority in a highly fragmented National Assembly, complicating economic and fiscal policy making,” it added. The rating agency said new French elections “will likely be called” in the second half of this year. “The outcome and economic policy implications are highly uncertain,” it said. “An increase in defense spending from the current 2.1 percent of GDP will intensify fiscal pressures,” Fitch added. The government’s deficit plans are based on the forecast that the French economy will grow by 0.9 percent this year. But earlier this week, France’s central bank revised downward its 2025 growth estimate to 0.7 percent, raising doubts on whether the French government will manage to deliver on its deficit reduction plan. In its statment Friday, Fitch slashed its growth forecast for France and now sees expansion of just 0.6 percent this year, compared with an earlier prediction of 1.2 percent.  Fitch last October lowered the outlook on France’s rating to “negative” from “stable,” citing the country’s spiraling debt.

PARIS — It was a close call for France’s big cheese in Brussels, Philippe Léglise-Costa. France’s veteran European Union ambassador was nearly fired before Christmas but got a last-minute stay of execution when the man who wanted to oust him, former Prime Minister Michel Barnier, lost his own job, according to four people familiar with the matter. Barnier had been pushing to replace Léglise-Costa with another Brussels big shot: Clément Beaune, France’s former Europe minister and a former adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron. Beaune has been without a significant role in government since losing his cabinet position in a January 2024 reshuffle and then his seat in parliament during the summer’s snap elections. Barnier wanted to get rid of Léglise-Costa in an attempt to shake things up in Brussels, but the former prime minister’s government was toppled in December before he could get around to doing so. “Barnier didn’t want [Léglise-Costa] anymore, there was an issue with France’s influence in Brussels,” said one person familiar with the conversations on sacking France’s permanent representative to the EU who, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to candidly discuss a sensitive issue. “He [Barnier] said we need a breath of fresh air, Léglise-Costa has been there for too long,” the individual said. Léglise-Costa, a stalwart of French diplomacy in Brussels, has been in his post since 2017 and has been rumored to be on the way out several times in the past. The former adviser to ex-president François Hollande got off on the wrong foot with Macron by betting against the then-economy minister’s meteoric rise to power. Still, Léglise-Costa’s expertise in EU affairs helped him become an immediate asset to the young president. But with France’s influence on the wane in Brussels, Barnier thought it was time for a change. According to a former French official, Barnier, an EU veteran himself having served as both a European commissioner and the bloc’s lead Brexit negotiator, wanted to leave his mark in Brussels after being sidelined in the discussion to nominate Stéphane Séjourné, a top Macron ally, to the job of European industry commissioner. Barnier, Beaune and Léglise-Costa all declined to comment for this story. THE PRESIDENT’S NOD Beaune had previously worked with Barnier during the grueling Brexit negotiations, so elevating him to Léglise-Costa’s old job would have been seen as a sign of the then-prime minister’s growing influence on European affairs. Beaune has also earned himself a reputation as a skilled political operator and a deft hand at managing the media. The plan would have needed Macron’s support, as the French president is responsible for appointing ambassadors upon the recommendation of the foreign minister. Léglise-Costa, a stalwart of French diplomacy in Brussels, has been in his post since 2017 and has been rumored to be on the way out several times before. | Pool photo by John Thys/AFP via Getty Images The left-leaning Beaune was an early Macron supporter, but the two fell out over a controversial immigration bill that passed with the support of the far right in 2023. However, the French president backed Barnier’s proposal to replace Léglise-Costa with his former Europe minister, according to three of the people POLITICO spoke with that were aware of Barnier’s plans. “They [Beaune and Macron] have made up since then,” said a member of Macron’s Renaissance party. “The president knows Clément’s qualities … and his passion for politics.” Doubts remain over how wholeheartedly the French president has overcome his rift with Beaune. According to a French official, Macron wanted him to give up internal French politics if he became an ambassador. Beaune, meanwhile, has said he wants to become the mayor of Paris, and is rumored to have his sights set even higher. Beaune may yet get the Brussels job, said one of the individuals familiar with Barnier’s machinations — unless his tell-all book, which was released last week, scuppers those chances once and for all.

PARIS — France’s 2025 budget cleared a key parliamentary hurdle on Friday, setting up a make-or-break moment next week in which Prime Minister François Bayrou will likely be forced to put his job on the line. The joint committee comprised of lawmakers from the Senate and National Assembly tasked with hammering out a compromise reached a final agreement on Friday, meaning spending plans will now advance to a vote in both chambers of the French legislature next week. Lawmakers didn’t radically change Bayrou’s spending plans, a mix of €53 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes aimed at reining in France’s eye-watering deficit, which reached 6.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2024 — more than twice the level permitted by EU rules. Instead they made several small tweaks to the law, such as freezing spending on medical assistance to foreigners instead of topping it up to keep up with inflation. Bayrou’s minority government does not have enough support to pass the budget next week, so it will likely need to use a constitutional back door that allows the government to adopt legislation without a vote but, in return, exposes it to a no-confidence vote. Former Prime Minister Michel Barnier in December attempted to use that measure to pass his spending plans, but lawmakers ousted him, leaving France without a proper budget entering the new year. Whereas Barnier tried to work with the far right, Bayrou is hoping the Socialists can be a potential opposition partner to help him pass his less ambitious spending plans. However, the two sides have so far been unable to strike an agreement, and controversial comments the centrist prime minister made this week on immigration have jeopardized the potential partnership. The Socialist senators and MPs who sat on the joint committee voted against the bill, meaning all eyes will be on them when Monday’s chamber vote arrives. While Bayrou does not need the party to vote for the bill, he will likely need its lawmakers to abstain from voting for a no-confidence measure to survive. “That is not our budget. We are in the opposition,” said the Socialists’ leader in the National Assembly, Boris Vallaud. But in a sign that potentially bodes well for Bayrou, Socialist party leaders acknowledged that they were able to obtain several concessions to preserve social spending. “Would we have wanted more? Of course, of course we would have wanted more. But those who gamble on having less or having everything always take the risk of having less,” Vallaud said.

BRUSSELS ― Not for the first time when it comes to France’s rocky public finances, the European Union is staying chill. While nobody is saying much publicly, behind the scenes the bloc appears to be broadly supportive of new Prime Minister François Bayrou’s efforts to get his austerity budget through parliament, even though it’s a scaled-back version of the drastic plan France previously agreed with the European Commission that ended up crashing the government last year. The new version — a €53 billion combination of spending cuts and tax increases aimed at bringing order to France’s increasingly haywire public finances, and, with it, a potential dilution of planned pension reforms — “is not a red alarm in any capitals,” one EU diplomat told POLITICO. Policymakers in Bayrou’s fledgling government, the diplomat said, are “trying their best.” For now, that will probably afford Bayrou the time he needs to win enough of France’s angry and divided parliament to his side. It’s a far cry from the doom-laden language that can accompany the failures of smaller countries to live up to EU demands to reduce debt. But, as critics of the EU’s efforts to keep member-government spending in order have said for years, it’s one thing to dole out harsh punishments to smaller countries like Greece and Portugal, and quite another to take on giants like France. The Commission, which runs the rule over every country’s budget, backed the tax-and-slash shock therapy pursued by former French Prime Minister Michel Barnier, calling it “ambitious.” But before he hit the 100-day mark in office, the left and right in France’s deeply-divided parliament — both disgruntled by the budget plan — united to vote Barnier out.  Now Bayrou, a centrist ally of increasingly unpopular President Emmanuel Macron, is proposing to dilute Barnier’s unpalatable medicine. BIGGEST CUTS IN 25 YEARS Bayrou’s plan “should be fine,” said another EU diplomat. “What the French presented [earlier] was stricter than what was required.” The new script still means reducing the country’s deficit ― the gap between public revenues and expenditures — from a whopping 6.2 percent of GDP to 5.4 percent, by cutting public spending in 2025 by €32 billion and increasing taxes by €21 billion. The Commission, which runs the rule over every country’s budget, backed the tax-and-slash shock therapy pursued by former French Prime Minister Michel Barnier. | Julien De Rosa/Getty Images “It’s the biggest spending reduction effort in the last 25 years,” Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin said on Wednesday as she detailed the measures in an interview with French broadcaster TF1. Bayrou also promised to launch a consultation process that could, in theory, ultimately change the most contentious aspect of Macron’s agenda: increasing the pension age from 62 to 64. While dangling a possible tweak to the pension reform might buy Bayrou time politically — particularly with the Socialist Party, whose votes he needs — European officials are still concerned about the longer-term impact on public finances. Bayrou has already said that if employers and trade unions cannot agree on a deal within three months, the plan that brought Macron so much opposition when he announced it in 2023 will go ahead. In the end, Bayrou’s pension consultation may change little. “There will be talks on modifications, with social partners, and we know that Medef [a lobby group for French employers] is a big supporter of pension reforms,” one of the diplomats quoted above said. “They may agree to make some changes, more favorable for some groups of people. One could imagine a few tweaks but not a big impact.” COMPLIANCE WITH EU RULES EU governments are waiting to learn the exact details of the planned changes to the budget from new French Finance Minister Eric Lombard. “From our perspective, what is important is compliance with the EU rules and [understanding] what the changes will be,” said a diplomat from an EU country. France plans to send amendments to the annual budget bill and to the broader seven-year fiscal plan, both already approved by the Commission but now out of date, a French government official told POLITICO. But that’s unlikely to happen by Jan. 21, when EU finance ministers meet and are supposed to back the Commission’s assessment.  “France has not formally notified the Commission of anything yet,” said Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari. “It’s up to the Council [made up of finance ministers from the 27 EU-member governments] to decide on the timeline for the adoption of the recommendations.”

PARIS  —  French Prime Minister François Bayrou appeared to buy his fledgling minority government at least a few more months by giving all sides time to negotiate over raising the country’s retirement age from 62 to 64 for most workers.   The plan, which he floated during his first major policy speech on Tuesday, would see trade and employer unions given three months to discuss the controversial changes, in what Bayrou called a “conclave,” within certain strict financial guidelines. Raising the pension age has long been one of the most contentious issues in French politics. The country enjoys a generous welfare state, but as public debt piles up, policymakers are increasingly desperate to make savings. The challenge for Bayrou is to navigate the deeply fractured parliament that emerged after last summer’s snap elections and avoid the fate of his predecessor, Michel Barnier, whose government didn’t even last 100 days. Bayrou is an ally of beleaguered President Emmanuel Macron and already looks set to face a series of no-confidence votes. Bayrou said that if talks on the retirement issue break down the pensions age wouldn’t change, leaving a future government to confront potentially urgent economic reforms. If they succeed, changes would be included in the next social security budget bill or if need be, in new legislation. “It is my conviction that we can seek a new reform path, without totems or taboos, even on the age of retirement,” Bayrou said in his 90-minute speech. The method he promised would be “new and a bit radical.” The plan, which François Bayrou floated during his first major policy speech on Tuesday, would see trade and employer unions given three months to discuss the controversial changes. | Thomas Samson/AFP via Getty Images This opening gambit was aimed at getting the Socialists to refrain from bringing down the government in a series of upcoming no-confidence votes. It appears to have worked. Socialist Party leaders grudgingly said they would give talks a chance. “I agreed to negotiate, but that means mutual concessions,” party chief Olivier Faure told French broadcaster TF1. “The prime minister has opened a door. That at least is a win.” However, Faure said his lawmakers may still vote to censure Bayrou if they are not given swift assurances that the 2023 pension law will be scrapped even if negotiations fail. The hard-left France Unbowed party brought a no-confidence motion against Bayrou, and a vote on it will likely take place on Thursday. The measure is not expected to pass, as the far-right National Rally has already said it will not vote to topple Bayrou before giving him a chance to govern. ANOTHER NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE The real test is further down the line when the 2025 budget bill returns to parliament, which could lead to another vote of no-confidence in late January. It’s likely then that the far right will vote against the government, so Bayrou needs to pick off enough left-wing MPs to survive without alienating the conservatives and Macron’s troops who support the pensions reform. On Sunday, the conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez fired a warning shot, threatening to withdraw support for Bayrou’s government, which includes conservatives, if he gave too many concessions to the left. In his speech, Bayrou said the retirement reform was necessary given France’s eye-watering budget deficit, which came in at 6.2 percent of gross domestic product for 2024. The veteran centrist politician accused lawmakers and leaders from across the political spectrum of dancing “a fatal tango” with debt that “brought us to the edge of the precipice.” Both the center left and conservatives appear appeased for the moment. But much as Barnier was finally ousted after seeking to build bridges with the far right, leaving France without a proper budget for 2025, Bayrou may also be knocked out if the mood shifts among the moderate left as he attempts to bring down the budget deficit. His government would then be France’s fourth one to fall in the last year, which could carry catastrophic ramifications for French finances and the stability of the eurozone.