BRUSSELS — The European Union faces a critical week as it seeks to shield Ukraine from a humiliating peace deal carved out by the U.S. and Russia while attempting to salvage an agreement to fund a multi-billion euro loan to keep Kyiv afloat. After a series of stinging attacks from Washington ― including Donald Trump telling POLITICO that European leaders are “weak” ― the coming days will be a real test of their mettle. On Monday leaders will attempt to build bridges and use their powers of persuasion over the peace agreement when they meet Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. officials in Berlin. At the same time in Brussels, EU foreign ministers and diplomats will battle to win over a growing number of European governments that oppose the loan plan. By Thursday, when all 27 leaders gather in the Belgian capital for what promises to be one of the most pivotal summits in years, they’ll hope to have more clarity on whether the intense diplomacy has paid off. With Trump’s stinging put-downs ― Europe’s leaders “talk, but they don’t produce” ― and NATO chief Mark Rutte’s stark warnings about the the threat from Russia ringing in their ears, they’re taking nothing for granted. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte said last week. “Russia has brought war back to Europe and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.” Little wonder then that European officials are casting the next few days as existential. The latest shot of 11th-hour diplomacy will see the leaders of the U.K., Germany and possibly France, potentially with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and his special envoy Steve Witkoff, meeting with Zelenskyy in Berlin. As if to underscore the significance of the meeting, “numerous European heads of state and government, as well as the leaders of the EU and NATO, will join the talks” after the initial discussion, said Stefan Kornelius, spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. French President Emmanuel Macron hasn’t confirmed his attendance but spoke to Zelenskyy by telephone on Sunday. The discussion will represent Europe’s attempt to influence the final settlement, weeks after a 28-point peace plan drafted by Witkoff  — reportedly with the aid of several Kremlin officials — provoked a furious backlash in both Kyiv and European capitals. They’ve since scrambled to put together an alternative. Further European disunity this week would send a “disastrous signal to Ukraine,” said one EU official. That outcome wouldn’t just be a hammer blow to the war-struck nation, the official added: “It’s also fair to say that Europe will then fail as well.” EMPTYING TERRITORIES This time the focus will be on a 20-point amendment to the plan drafted by Kyiv and its European allies and submitted to Washington for review last week. The contents remain unclear, and nothing is decided, but the fate of the Ukrainian territories under Russian occupation is particularly thorny. Trump has pitched emptying out the territories of Ukrainian and Russian troops and establishing a demilitarized “free economic zone” where U.S. business interests could operate. Ukraine has rejected that proposal, according to a French official, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations. The U.S. has insisted on territorial concessions despite fierce European objections, the official added, creating friction with the Trump administration. Leaders will attempt to build bridges and use their powers of persuasion over the peace agreement when they meet Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. officials in Berlin. | Antonio Masiello/Getty Images Europe’s leaders insist there can be no progress on territory before Ukraine is offered security guarantees. In a sign of movement toward some kind of deal, Zelenskyy said over the weekend he was willing to “compromise” and not demand NATO membership for Ukraine. Instead, the country should be afforded an ad-hoc collective defense arrangement, he told journalists in a WhatsApp conversation. “The bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States … and the security guarantees from our European colleagues for us, as well as from other countries such as Canada and Japan ― these security guarantees for us provide an opportunity to prevent another outbreak of Russian aggression,” he said. REPEATED SETBACKS Europe will have further opportunities to discuss the way forward after Monday. EU affairs ministers will continue on Tuesday in Brussels to thrash out plans for Thursday’s summit. In between, Wednesday will see the leaders of Europe’s “Eastern flank” ― with countries including the Baltics and Poland represented ― huddle in Helsinki. The EU has been trying for months to convince Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to consent to a plan to use the cash value of the €185 billion in Russian state assets held in Brussels-based depository Euroclear to fund and arm Ukraine. (The remainder of the total €210 billion financial package would include €25 billion in frozen Russian assets held across the bloc.) In a sign the chances of a deal at Thursday’s summit are worsening rather than improving, Italy — the EU’s third-largest country — sided with Belgium’s demands to look for alternative options to finance Ukraine in a letter on Friday that was also signed by Malta and Bulgaria. Czechia’s new Prime Minister Andrej Babiš also rejected the plan on Sunday. “The more such cases we have the more likely it is that we will have to find other solutions,” an EU diplomat said. The five countries — even if joined by pro-Kremlin Hungary and Slovakia — would not be able to build a blocking minority, but their public criticism erodes the Commission’s hopes of striking a political deal this week. A meeting of EU ambassadors originally planned for Sunday evening was postponed until Monday. While the last-minute diplomatic effort has left many concerned the money might not be approved before the end of the year, with Ukraine in desperate need of the cash, three diplomats insisted they were sticking to the plan and that no alternatives were yet being considered. Belgium is engaging constructively with the draft measures, actively making suggestions and changes in the document to be considered when ambassadors meet on Monday, one of the diplomats and an EU official said. The decision on the Russian assets is “a decision on the future of Europe and will determine whether the EU is still a relevant actor,” a German official said. “There is no option B.” Bjarke Smith-Meyer, Nick Vinocur, Victor Jack and Zoya Sheftalovich in Brussels, Veronika Melkozerova in Kyiv, Clea Caulcutt and Laura Kayali in Paris and Nette Nöstlinger in Berlin contributed to this report.

The Trump administration is forming a coalition to counter China’s dominant control of critical minerals and emerging power as a center of AI and other tech sectors. The administration plans to launch the coalition of partners with the signing Friday of the Pax Silica Declaration, uniting Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Israel in a collaboration intended to address deficits in critical mineral access edging out China’s massive investment in its critical minerals and tech sector. The administration is actively looking to enlist other countries to join the group. The initiative underscores the degree to which the Trump administration considers China’s near monopoly in rare earths – minerals that are critical to civilian and military applications – and dominance of other parts of the global supply chain, as a significant threat. Beijing has wielded its dominance of the sector through export restrictions intended to hit back against the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policy on Chinese imports. The declaration also reflects U.S. concern about China’s massive investment in artificial intelligence and quantum computing that could give it a competitive edge in the 21st century economy. “It’s an industrial policy for an economic security coalition and it’s a game changer because there is no grouping today where we can get together to talk about the AI economy and how we compete with China in AI,” Helberg said. “By aligning our economic security approaches, we can start to have cohesion to basically block China’s Belt and Road Initiative — which is really designed to magnify its export-led model — by denying China the ability to buy ports, major highways, transportation and logistics corridors.” Helberg said that the Trump administration aims to expand the coalition from the initial five countries that sign the declaration to include more allies and partners with mineral, technological and manufacturing resources. The signing of the declaration kicks off the administration’s one-day Pax Silica Summit, which will include officials from the European Union, Canada, the Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates. The summit will feature discussions about cooperation in areas such as advanced manufacturing, mineral refining and logistics. “This grouping of countries will be to the AI age what the G7 was to the industrial age,” Helberg said. “It commits us to a process by which we’re going to cooperate on aligning our export controls, screening of foreign investments, addressing anti-dumping but with a very proactive agenda on securing choke points in the global supply chain system.”

In the secretive cloisters of the Vatican, where bishops and cardinals plot and scheme, Martin Selmayr was seen as a natural (for a Protestant, at least). But the man who once ran the European Commission with an iron grip devoted his best work to charting his course back to the Berlaymont. However, his latest scheme for ending his effective exile in Rome, where he is EU ambassador to the Holy See, and returning to Brussels seems to have come apart. The job that looked set to be his — deputy secretary-general of the European External Action Service (EEAS), a new role strong-arming EU leaders into agreeing on foreign policy — seemed ideal. But it was clumsy politicking that proved to be the downfall of the veteran German civil servant. According to three officials, granted anonymity to talk about the backroom dealings, `Selmayr looks set to stay in Rome for the foreseeable future after opposition from the top of the European Commission sank his bid, particularly because he has so far declined to take an alternative role in the Belgian capital. The scheming came to a head at a meeting of the College of Commissioners on Oct. 21, when a conclave of Ursula von der Leyen allies proposed that Selmayr be given the role of special envoy for religious freedoms, a job that would have brought him back to Brussels but in a much less high-profile role than the one at the EEAS. The plan was drawn up because of Selmayr’s very public maneuvering, which spooked some national capitals, according to those in the room. “This was a way to say OK, if he wants to come back to Brussels, here’s how you do it,” said one of the EU officials of the offer for the religious freedom envoy role. However, at a College of Commissioners meeting earlier this week, Selmayr was not put forward for the role of religious freedom envoy either. “This was the only job open to him,” said the official. “If he doesn’t want that, he stays in Rome.” Selmayr has declined to comment publicly throughout the process. DOMINUS VOBISCUM During his time as chief of staff to former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Selmayr gained a reputation for ruthless efficiency. He was also branded the “Monster of the Berlaymont” for his hard-nosed tactics. Many imagined Selmayr’s 2019 departure, designed to allay fears about German over-representation and give new President von der Leyen a clean slate to govern, would be the end of his time in Brussels. However, Selmayr’s irrepressible energy and intelligence made him stand out even from Rome, where he made a splash entertaining dignitaries, cardinals and other Vatican potentates from his lavish HQ abutting the ancient Baths of Caracalla. During his time as chief of staff to former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Selmayr gained a reputation for ruthless efficiency. | Pool photo by Ludovic Marin/EPA “That someone who’s been a political animal in Brussels can fit in here and earn respect in the Vatican, that speaks to his qualities,” said one emmissary who got to know Selmayr well and was granted anonymity to speak freely. “I’ve seen him leading the room at EU ambassadors’ meetings; he was charming, suave, and very well-informed.” Also tasked with representing the EU in talks with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, diplomats said Selmayr provided an immediate boost to the bloc’s standing, turning his Brussels-honed skills to the issues at hand. Clerics and seasoned attachés alike were awed by how much this establishment creature knew about their cloistered Catholic world, with one pointing out that he appeared to enjoy the Vatican brief more than he was supposed to — given he was officially supposed to prioritize the UN part of the job. A diplomatic insider, meanwhile, said Selmayr seemed overqualified for the ambassadorship. “He is quite up for scheming, which is fun, but scheming about multilateral agriculture issues is hardly high geopolitics. You can tell he wants to be more forceful and make stuff happen quickly, but gets that isn’t how it works here … he does the job, it just isn’t a very taxing job.” SEDE VACANTE The sight of one of the EU’s most accomplished backroom operators languishing in the Vatican presented a clear opportunity for the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, and her allies. For months, the former Estonian prime minister has been locked in a power struggle with national capitals over flagship policies such as sanctioning Israel and relations with U.S. President Donald Trump. Many imagined Selmayr’s 2019 departure, designed to give new President von der Leyen a clean slate to govern, would be the end of his time in Brussels. | Ronald Wittek/EPA Kallas has also been in an increasingly bitter standoff with von der Leyen and her own all-powerful German head of cabinet, Selmayr’s successor, Björn Seibert. “Kaja wants her own Björn,” said a third diplomat, “and that’s Martin.” But there were concerns that unleashing Selmayr’s scheming in Brussels could worsen the already tense political landscape. “The only similarities between Björn and Martin are that they’re both very smart and they’re both from Germany,” said the senior EU official, arguing that Seibert strives for loyalty and quiet competence while Selmayr is a political animal with few such scruples. “People think he’d be a kind of monster under the bed for von der Leyen — really, he’d be the monster under the bed for Kallas.” CARDINALES ELECTORES A Selmayr return to the EEAS would have been controversial because of his reputation, but the pieces were never really in place, according to Günther Oettinger, who served as Germany’s European commissioner from 2010 until 2019, including the period when Selmayr was at the peak of his powers as secretary-general of the European Commission. “The preparatory work was not convincing,” Oettinger said. “For such a senior post in the EEAS, you need the full backing of several member states: because he’s German, the full backing of the German government, in addition to France, Poland and so on.” A Selmayr return to the EEAS would have been controversial because of his reputation, but the pieces were never really in place, according to Günther Oettinger. | Stephanie Lecocq/EPA “To have the idea is the first step, but to not procure the full backing of member states — I’d say this was a mistake of Madam Kallas,” said Oettinger. Diplomats and officials who spoke to POLITICO said key countries were not asked about a Selmayr return or kept informed on the process. There was also division in Germany over a potential reappearance of Selmayr. Germany’s EU Affairs Minister Gunther Krichbaum told POLITICO in late October that he would “very much welcome” Selmayr returning to the fray in a senior role, sparking an immediate rebuke from his own government. HABEMUS PLAN-AM The high-handed scheming on Selmayr’s future has now alienated even the faith community that he had worked hard to build bridges with. “It’s a bit upsetting that this position [special envoy for religious freedoms] is being politicized, it’s not what Church has asked for,” said Manuel Barrios, who lobbies on behalf of Europe’s bishops’ conferences in Brussels. “We’ve been back and forth some times — a lot of parties have asked for this already, so it’s a bit upsetting that this is being used as a political fight. It seems von der Leyen is not very interested — neither her nor her head of cabinet.” Kaja Kallas has also been in an increasingly bitter standoff with von der Leyen and her own all-powerful German head of cabinet, Selmayr’s successor, Björn Seibert. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA The Commission is also under fire from civil society groups over fears that jobs are being stitched up behind closed doors by its gray cardinals. In a letter to von der Leyen, Humanists International warned that the role of the envoy is too important to play politics with. Officials, they say, should put forward “a transparent and accountable selection process, which should, at a minimum, include public lists of candidates and criteria as well as the meaningful consultation of Parliament and civil society.” For now, the German apparatchik is pushing on with his plans undeterred. “Mr. Selmayr successfully completed the application process at the EEAS last week,” said a person with knowledge of his application. “Whether he will be able to take up this position in the near future or will continue to serve as EU Ambassador to the United Nations in Rome and to the Holy See must now be decided jointly by the EU High Representative and the President of the Commission ‘in the interest of the service.'” But, as Selmayr’s best-laid plans come up against those of the EU’s leadership, all he and his allies can do is double down on their plotting and hope they can do it better than his rivals. “He’s eminently qualified,” said a fourth diplomat. “If he doesn’t get the job, it’s down to politics.” Gabriel Gavin reported from Paris. Ben Munster reported from Brussels. Hannah Roberts reported from Rome. Hans von der Burchard reported from Berlin.

THE HAGUE — Frans Timmermans rose to the pinnacle of European Union politics. But it was his own Brussels legacy that sabotaged his attempt to defeat the far right. Timmermans resigned as the leader of the GreenLeft-Labor alliance Wednesday night after a stunning underperformance in the Dutch general election, with the party losing five seats since the last election and ending up in fourth place. “It’s clear that I, for whatever reason, couldn’t convince people to vote for us,” Timmermans said in a speech in Rotterdam after the exit polls were published Wednesday night. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the leading of our movement to the next generation.” The pan-European Party of European Socialists considered Timmermans living proof that progressive, left-wing politics are in for a comeback after a decade of losing ground to the right. To them, Timmermans was an international statesman with a real a chance at scoring the Netherland’s premiership, 23 years since the last government led by Social Democrats. But for Dutch voters, he was unable to shake his reputation as an outsider and elitist. And it was precisely that international experience that doomed him as a stodgy statesman in The Hague. As a European commissioner for nearly a decade, half of it spent as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s second-in-command, Timmermans delivered the flagship EU Green Deal package to fight climate change. The ailing GreenLeft-Labor alliance — which only recently began an official merger process — also put stock in Timmermans, bringing him back home to lead the charge against the surge of far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) in the national election of 2023. But his party failed to win the top slot, and was sidelined in government formation. Party leaders on the right demonized Timmermans and ran a hate campaign against him. | Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP via Getty Images Party leaders on the right demonized Timmermans, branding him as a green fanatic who would misspend taxpayer cash, should he be given the chance to govern. Dilan Yeşilgöz, the leader of Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), called him “arrogant” and “elitist” on several occasions — as did other leaders. Hopes for Timmerman rose again this past June when the right-wing government, led by Geert Wilders’ PVV, collapsed. With all major parties now pledging to sideline the far right, and with favorable polls placing his party second after PVV, Timmermans seemed to have another shot at leading the next Dutch government. But much as he tried, Timmermans failed to get rid of his EU past and lead his own country. BRUSSELS ARROGANCE During the EU election in 2019, Timmermans was the lead candidate of the European Socialists, campaigning across EU countries and on many occasions speaking the local tongue — as he is fluent in six languages. This impressive international flair earned him supporters in Brussels — but not so much in his home country. Since his return to Dutch politics, Timmermans’ problem has been that he is seen as an intellectual focused on foreign affairs, coming from the outside to lecture Dutch voters, campaign expert Alex Klusman and Leiden University politics professor Sarah de Lange told POLITICO ahead of the vote. “He has a handicap, because he’s perceived as this relatively well-off cosmopolitan” — an image that creates tension with the idea of defending “the interests of ordinary Dutch citizens,” said de Lange. Over the years, Timmermans has grappled with being seen as arrogant after years of keeping his head out of the country — first, as state secretary of EU affairs and minister of foreign affairs for seven years, followed by his tenure at the European Commission for nine years, said Klusman, who is the CEO of the BKB campaigning agency. When he came back to the Netherlands in 2023, Dutch citizens saw Timmermans as someone who was lecturing them — “telling them what to do, and at the same time somebody who had lost complete contact with what the Netherlands had become,” Klusman said. By that time, Klusman pointed out, the country had become widely dominated by right-wing politicians distrustful of the EU. Timmermans indeed worked hard to change his image. He sought to convey a more energetic, healthier politician campaigning across the country. | Dingena Mol/ANP/AFP via Getty Images For a man who had been in charge of devising the core of the Green Deal — now used in a counter-campaign by portraying it as killing Europe’s businesses — it was not a smooth landing. An article by Dutch newspaper NRC ahead of the vote argued that GreenLeft-Labor is increasingly associated with words like elitist, cosmopolitan and moralistic. “This image, partly the result of years of hard work by Geert Wilders, has stuck with many voters,” the analysis said. “GreenLeft-Labor is finding it difficult to shake that off.” Timmermans himself was keenly aware of that image, which he fought hard to leave behind. The perception of him as an outsider in his own country, Timmermans said when asked by POLITICO prior to the Dutch vote, “was very relevant two years ago when I came back — but last year, year-and-a-half, this has not been an issue.” “People remember that I was in government, that I was in the European Commission. But it’s no longer ‘the guy who comes to lecture us,’ because I’ve been active in Dutch politics again for two full years in the forefront of national politics,” he added. FAILED MAKEOVER Timmermans indeed worked hard to change his image. He sought to convey a more energetic, healthier politician campaigning across the country, while living in his hometown Maastricht to show he is connected to his roots. That makeover included dramatic weight loss after a gastric bypass surgery he underwent a year ago — which he descrribed at length in an interview with Dutch daily De Telegraaf, known to be especially critical of Timmermans, to try make him more palatable to right-wing voters.  But, according to Klusman, key for Timmermans were the “two years of humbleness lessons” doing parliamentary work as opposition leader after he lost the election in 2023. “In the beginning, he would never say that he wasn’t right, that he made a wrong remark or a wrong position in a debate,” said Klusman. But “now he’d think, and then he’d say, ‘no, I made a mistake.’” Timmermans began to listen instead of lecture, Klusman added. As the EU’s Green Deal architect, he brought the message home by focusing on the social aspects of climate change — for example, Timmermans tapped the narrative that building out renewable energy will reduce the energy bills for Dutch households. But despite all efforts, personal opinion ratings a few days before the election showed the wider Dutch population did not like Timmermans, giving him among the lowest grades on Oct. 27. “He is clearly not perceived as a new Timmermans,” said de Lange. “He’s very much perceived as the same figure he was in 2023” — as a party leader with strong credentials as a minister and a commissioner — “but far less as a fighter in politics and campaigning,” she concluded. Eva Hartog and Hanne Cokelaere contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — Wednesday’s election in the Netherlands should surely go down as one of the best days Europe’s centrists have enjoyed in years. Geert Wilders, the far-right populist who touted leaving the EU on his way to a shock victory in the 2023 election, lost nearly a third of his voters after 11 chaotic months for his Party for Freedom (PVV) in coalition.  At the same time, the fervently pro-European liberal Rob Jetten surged in the final days of the campaign and stands a good chance of becoming prime minister. At 38, he would be the youngest person to hold the office since World War II and the first openly gay candidate ever to do so.  “Many in the Brussels bubble will welcome the rise of a mainstream, pro-governing and reform-oriented party,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity because the subject is politically sensitive. “The Dutch have a lot to contribute to the EU.” But even as they exhale with relief at the end of the Wilders interlude, the inhabitants of Europe’s dominant liberal center-ground — those Brussels officials, diplomats and ministers who run the EU show — would be well advised not to celebrate too hard. If previous years are any guide, the final shape of the next government and its policy plans will not become clear for months. Who knows what will have happened in Ukraine, the Middle East, or in Donald Trump’s trade war with China in that time? “It is essential for European cooperation that a new government is stable and able to make bold decisions, given the current geopolitical challenges that Europe is facing,” the same diplomat said. Even when the new coalition finally begins its work, this election should worry Europe’s liberal centrists almost as much as it delights them. JETTEN INTO EUROPE  Jetten’s Democracy 66 party has never done so well at a Dutch election: Assuming he gets the job he wants, he’ll be the party’s first prime minister. This week he told POLITICO he wanted to move the Netherlands closer to the EU.  Last night, officials in Brussels privately welcomed the prospect of the Dutch and their highly regarded diplomats returning to their historic place at the center of EU affairs, after two years in which they lost some influence. It was always going to be tough for the outgoing PM Dick Schoof, a 68-year-old technocrat, to follow the long-serving Mark Rutte, an EU star who now runs NATO. Domestic divisions made his job even harder.  But pro-European spirits also rose because the disruptive Wilders had wanted to keep the EU at arm’s length. Jetten’s position could hardly be more different. In fact, he sounds like an EU federalist’s dream.  “We want to stop saying ‘no’ by default, and start saying ‘yes’ to doing more together,” Jetten told POLITICO this week. “I cannot stress enough how dire Europe’s situation will be if we do not integrate further.”  STAYING DUTCH In Brussels, officials expect the next Dutch administration to maintain the same broad outlook on core policies: restraint on the EU’s long-term budget; cracking down on migration; boosting trade and competitiveness; and supporting Ukraine, alongside stronger common defense. One area where things could get complicated is climate policy. Jetten is committed to climate action and may end up in a power-sharing deal with GreenLeft-Labor, which was led at this election by former EU Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans.  How any government that Jetten leads balances climate action with improving economic growth will be key to policy discussions in Brussels. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been trimming climate measures amid center-right complaints that they are expensive for consumers and businesses. But she wants to secure backing for new targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.  Elsewhere, housing and migration — two areas often linked by far-right politicians — were central issues in the Dutch campaign. Both will continue to feature on the EU’s agenda, too.  For many watching the results unfold in Brussels, the biggest concerns are practical: Will the next Dutch government be more stable than the last one? And how long will it take to for the coalition to form? Seven months passed between the last election in November 2023 and Schoof taking office as prime minister in July 2024. “This is a historic election result because we’ve shown not only to the Netherlands but also to the world that it’s possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements,” Jetten told his supporters. “I’m very eager to cooperate with other parties to start an ambitious coalition as soon as possible.”  WILDERS Beneath the rare good news of a pro-European triumph and a far-right failure lurk more worrying trends for EU centrists.  First of all, there’s the sheer volatility of the result. Most voters apparently made up their minds at the last moment.  Wilders went from winning the popular vote and taking 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch lower house in 2023 to a projected 26 seats this time. Jetten’s D66 party, meanwhile, went from just nine seats two years ago to a projected 26, according to a preliminary forecast by the Dutch news agency ANP. The center-right Christian Democratic Appeal took just five seats in 2023 but now stands to win 18, according to the forecast. With swings this wild, anything could happen next time. Most major parties say they won’t work with Wilders in coalition now, making Jetten the more likely new PM if the projections hold. But Wilders says he is a long way from finished. “You won’t be rid of me until I’m 80,” the 62 year-old told supporters. In fact, Wilders might find a period in opposition — free from the constraints and compromises required in government — the perfect place to resume his inflammatory campaigns against Islam, immigration and the EU.  Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage had all been written off before storming back into their respective political front lines. “We had hoped for a different outcome, but we stood our ground,” Wilders wrote on X. “We are more determined than ever.”  TIMM’S UP  The other cloud on the pro-European horizon is the fate of Timmermans.  His center-left ticket was expected to do well and had been polling second behind Wilders’ Freedom Party in the months before the vote. But per the preliminary forecast, GreenLeft-Labor will fall from 25 seats to 20. Timmermans — who also stood in 2023 — resigned as leader.  It wasn’t just a defeat for the party, but also in some ways for Brussels. Timmermans had served as the European Commission’s executive vice president during von der Leyen’s first term, and was seen by some, especially his opponents, as a creation of the EU bubble.  Others point to the fact the center-left is struggling across Europe.  “It’s clear that I, for whatever reason, couldn’t convince people to vote for us,” Timmermans said. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the lead of our movement to the next generation.” Jetten’s pro-Europeanism could also come back to haunt him by the time of the next election. If he fails to deliver miracles to back up his optimistic pitch to voters, his Euroskeptic opponents have a ready-made argument for what went wrong. Recent history in the Netherlands, and elsewhere, suggests they won’t be afraid to use it.  Eva Hartog, Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck and Max Griera contributed reporting.

BRUSSELS — Divisive German civil servant Martin Selmayr should return to Brussels for the sake of the EU, Berlin declared Wednesday. Speaking to POLITICO, Germany’s EU Affairs Minister Gunther Krichbaum said he would “very much welcome” Selmayr returning to the fray in a senior role. The veteran political operator is considering taking a job working for Brussels’ top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, despite opposition from powerful factions in the European Commission and in national capitals. “If we already have civil servants who are playing at Champions League level, we should deploy them in the right place,” said Krichbaum. “That’s also in Germany’s interest, and it would be good for Kaja Kallas if she had him as support.” Selmayr was chief of staff to former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker before becoming secretary-general of the EU’s executive arm until 2019. Since then, he has been posted to Rome as the bloc’s ambassador to the Vatican. Selmayr met with Kallas’ top team in recent weeks, amid the creation of an influential new role in her European External Action Service that would see him represent the diplomatic corps in talks with lawmakers and national governments. However, Commission officials have moved to derail that appointment, instead proposing that Selmayr be offered a role as the EU’s special envoy for religious freedom — a far less sensitive and influential post that would nonetheless facilitate his return to Brussels. A German conservative with deep institutional ties, Selmayr garnered a reputation as the “Monster of the Berlaymont” during his time in the Commission’s Brussels headquarters. His 2018 promotion to oversee the Commission drew condemnation from the European Parliament, which said the process failed “to give other possible candidates within the European public administration the possibility to apply.”

Josep Borrell Fontelles is the former EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. Guy Verhofstadt is a former prime minister of Belgium and president European Movement International. Domènec Ruiz Devesa is a former MEP and president of the Union of European Federalists. It’s become tradition for pro-Europeans to chart their political course from Ventotene, where Altiero Spinelli wrote the manifesto “For a Free and United Europe.” Recalling that spirit has never been more urgent than it is now. Our union appears dangerously fragmented and weak, stuck in a hostile internal and external environment. Home to just 5 percent of the global population and a widening economic gap with other major powers, Europe isn’t just facing up to a world of continental empires but is at real risk of becoming America’s vassal. This became apparent after the nonreciprocal concessions made to U.S. President Donald Trump on defense spending and trade, as well as Europe’s acceptance of a junior role in handling the war in Ukraine. Moreover, from Gaza to Nagorno-Karabakh, the EU’s involvement in conflicts abroad has become largely irrelevant, either due to its lack of credible international standing or unity. Domestically, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s second term has been counterintuitively marked by the undoing of the Green Deal — the flagship project of her first term — as if climate change isn’t getting worse. The Commission has also proposed an underwhelming Multiannual Financial Framework with no real increase, thus sacrificing cohesion policy to new priorities in defense products and research. Meanwhile, the Euroskeptic and Europhobic populist far right has never been stronger in member countries or EU institutions. The current EU chiefs suffer from a lack of long-term political vision, leadership and unity. For now, an unlikely alliance of Trump sympathizers and nostalgic Atlanticists appear to be dominating both the European Council and the Commission. Thus, the prevailing line has been to flatter and appease the U.S. president in the hopes of damage control, in turn fostering our political, strategic and even economic dependency on Washington — and it’s hardly working. For Trump, contracts only bind the other party — not him. And far from avoiding punitive tariffs or strengthening his support for Ukraine, agreeing to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense and buy more U.S. weapons and natural gas hasn’t even increased his commitment to collective security. Instead, from minerals deals to weapons sales, this has largely become a purely transactional affair based on advancing U.S. economic gains — and luck. Paradoxically, the lack of serious engagement from Russian President Vladimir Putin in starting a negotiated settlement is preventing Trump’s attempted delivery of a deal on Moscow’s terms. Pool photo by Sergey Bobylev/Sputnik/Kremlin via EPA It should be clear by now that Trump isn’t, and never will be, an ally. His America constitutes a huge geopolitical, economic and cultural shock to Europe. But becoming a U.S. protectorate isn’t inevitable — especially given increasingly indignant public opinion over the series of concessions and humiliations we’re witnessing. There is an alternate path. A reinvigoration of a pro-European majority in the bloc’s three institutions — particularly the European Parliament — could still lead to the self-determination of our destiny. The Parliament has the constitutional role of controlling the Commission and could call for a new direction, as it holds the power to censure it. For a start, the Parliament could block the reduction of tariffs on U.S. products — a move that would surely be popular with voters and would signal that Europe’s readiness to stand up to blackmail. Furthermore, we need to strengthen our political union, overcome the veto-cracy that allows Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn to block the EU’s military assistance to Ukraine, and build our own defense system — one that isn’t reliant on the U.S. and can instill fear in the Kremlin. Once again, these decisions will be quite popular with most EU citizens. As former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said, we won’t be a geopolitical power just by relaunching our internal market and competitiveness agenda. We need to become a federal union that isn’t constrained by unanimity requirements or a lack of proper competencies in foreign and security policy. Leading member countries should immediately take the initiative to start activating its common defense clause and reform the Treaties in alliance with the Parliament, which holds the power to veto the budget. Otherwise, a coalition of the willing should launch a new “European Defense Community” with a parliamentary and fiscal dimension, and is open to all member countries interested in joining. If no action is taken, and we wait for the next crisis to improvise on hard decisions, Europe as a political project risks dying.

The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low. The decision was driven by the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, and was made after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, leading to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles and precision munitions was sinking, according to three people familiar with the issue. The initial decision to withhold some aid promised during the Biden administration came in early June, according to the people, but is only taking effect now as Ukraine is beating back some of the largest Russian barrages of missiles and drones at civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere. The people were granted anonymity to discuss current operations. The Pentagon and White House did not respond to a request for comment. Russia over the weekend launched its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the three-year war, with a reported 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles. Of these, 249 were reportedly shot down and 226 were lost, likely having been electronically jammed. The move by the Pentagon to halt some of the shipments stoked fears among Ukraine’s allies in Congress that the country would be left vulnerable to further Russian airstrikes. The munitions are a mix of air defenses and precision weapons that have been flowing to Ukraine for much of the past two-plus years. The weapons are a mix of two different streams of support the U.S has provided Ukraine, both under the Biden administration. Some come from drawdowns on current stockpiles, with the DOD receiving money to replenish those munitions as quickly as possible. The second comes from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, in which the U.S. funds the purchase of weapons for Ukraine from American defense firms. The money has been used to put weapons under contract for the Ukrainian government. Money in the fund was all obligated by the end of the Biden administration, with deliveries coming whenever the systems are ready. The drawdowns from current stockpiles have continued under the Trump administration, which has been using up the last of the $61 billion in funding to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons and provide billions in aid for Israel and other partners. The Trump administration has not requested any further aid, though there is enough left over from the Biden administration to last Ukraine several more months, according to an administration official. Joe Gould contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — The European Union’s rules on content moderation, digital competition and artificial intelligence are not up for negotiation with the U.S., the European Commission’s tech chief Henna Virkkunen says. Virkkunen drew a line in the sand in an interview with POLITICO just ahead of a new round of talks between EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday. The two sides were reported to be inching closer to a deal that includes how U.S. tech companies are treated under the EU’s Digital Markets Act. “The [Digital Services Act], the [Digital Markets Act] and the AI Act of course, these are very important rules for us to make sure that we have trustworthy technologies,” Virkkunen said. “So, this is not part of trade negotiations from our side.” The rules are not up for negotiation because they are “based on our European values,” Virkkunen underlined. The Trump administration and U.S. tech executives have pushed back strongly against the EU’s tech rules in recent months, arguing that the Digital Services Act would allow Americans to be censored, and that the Digital Markets Act unfairly targets U.S. companies. Washington has also called for the EU’s AI Act to be paused, a demand that is now gaining traction among European government officials and several EU tech executives. Virkkunen also rebuffed the framing of EU tech fines as “tariffs,” saying the Commission is not “looking for fines” and that the penalties are meant to force companies to comply. The EU’s tech chief also indicated that the Commission is proceeding full steam ahead with its ongoing probes under the bloc’s Digital Services Act, and promised that several of them will reach fruition soon. “There are so many investigations in the pipeline that we are also able to come to conclusions with many of them in the coming weeks and months,” she said. The most anticipated probe concerns Elon Musk’s X. The platform was found last summer to be in preliminary breach of the EU’s content moderation rules regarding dark patterns, advertising transparency and data access for researchers. Virkkunen declined to comment on whether it would now be easier for the Commission to wrap up the probe and issue a fine against X and Musk, given that the tech billionaire has fallen out of favor with U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump didn’t rule out deporting Musk on Tuesday. “When we are investigating the platforms, it’s based [on] evidence and based [on] our Digital Services Act, and not [on] who’s the owner,” Virkkunen said.

BRUSSELS — Friedrich Merz’s arrival as German chancellor in May rekindled the fading Franco-German love affair — and the lovebirds have already found a shared interest: killing Europe’s ethical supply chain dream. Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron joined forces this month to hobble new European Union rules aimed at boosting supply chain transparency, agreeing to mutual concessions that critics say have left the bill toothless.  The bilateral deal highlights a new era for the historical Franco-German relationship focused on a sharp pro-business agenda, some argue, thanks to a budding bromance between the two leaders. Adopted last year, the EU’s supply chain oversight law requires companies to police their supply chains for possible environmental and human rights violations. But the bill has yet to be implemented, having been selected as part of a whole set of EU rules currently subject to a massive simplification effort to cut the regulatory burden for businesses.  EU countries on Monday agreed on a dramatically watered-down version of the revolutionary rules in record time. Initially presented by the European Commission in February 2022, the new version — if endorsed by the EU as a whole — will only apply to a fraction of the European companies initially targeted. The new text “is possibly one of the first policy [deliveries] that is going to be restarting the Franco-German alliance,” said Alberto Alemanno, an EU law professor at HEC Paris. Amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical turmoil, the European Union is on a mission to reinvent itself as a prosperous, pro-business, anti-red tape powerhouse. Macron and Merz are leading the charge in that mission. “It is a first success for the Franco-German couple,” said a French economy ministry official who was granted anonymity in line with the French government’s communication practices after the agreement among EU countries was announced.  That’s because Macron, a staunchly pro-business liberal, and Merz, an equally pro-business conservative, agreed on mutual concessions to make the text more palatable for the two countries, the same official explained. The affinity the two leaders share has not gone unnoticed. “There’s a bit of a honeymoon between Macron and Merz,” Alemanno said. “They really get along well because they have a very similar style of leadership. They are both very charismatic. They also say things that are quite unpopular, but they just say it.”  Last month, Macron told an audience of business executives that the due diligence directive ought “not just to be postponed for one year, but to be put off the table.” Emmanuel Macron told an audience of business executives that the due diligence directive ought “not just to be postponed for one year, but to be put off the table.” | Pool Photo by Benoit Tessier via EPA His comments followed a similar statement from Merz, who had called for a “complete repeal” of the law during a visit to Brussels.  As their leaders were making bold public statements about scrapping the rules altogether, behind the scenes the French and German delegations in Brussels negotiated to effectively hollow out the file. After the agreement was reached, Paris hailed the outcome as a joint win for Europe’s most powerful leaders, while Berlin stayed mum. “The German government will not publicly comment on statements made by other governments or information based on anonymous sources,” a German government spokesperson said. Civil society groups, meanwhile, question whether Europe’s supply chain oversight rules still make a difference. “We’re getting to the point of, is it even worth having this law?” said Richard Gardiner, interim head of EU policy at the ShareAction NGO, arguing that if “badly written” rules are then enshrined in law, companies will have no incentive to do better. A LONG TIME COMING The French and German positions come on the back of a tumultuous start to Ursula von der Leyen’s second term as European Commission president, during which she pledged to answer EU leaders’ calls to cut red tape for business. One of the first concrete measures the new Commission took was an “omnibus” bill, an “unprecedented simplification effort” that watered down several green laws from the previous mandate, including the corporate sustainability reporting directive and the supply chain law. The Commission wanted these changes to be fast-tracked. “I have never seen them move this fast on a piece of legislation,” said ShareActions’s Gardiner, describing the policymaking process in Brussels as having gone from a “technocratic [process] to essentially a personality-based, knee-jerk reaction.” Among the key changes to the rules is the number of companies that will be impacted. While the Commission’s proposal was to exclude 80 percent of European companies from having to comply with both the sustainability reporting and the supply chain rules, EU countries ultimately backed a French proposal to limit the scope of the latter to companies with more than 5,000 employees and €1.5 billion in net turnover. In other words, fewer than 1,000 European companies would be subject to them. Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron joined forces this month to hobble new European Union rules aimed at boosting supply chain transparency, agreeing to mutual concessions that critics say have left the bill toothless. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA And that’s what the French wanted. “I think that this alignment between France and Germany allowed [us] to progress,” said the French official quoted above. In particular, the French agreed to concessions on civil liability — a main concern of German companies, which did not want to be liable for breaches of the law at the EU level. In exchange, Berlin agreed to back the higher threshold that determines which companies are subject to the new rules to ensure they align with those that already exist in French law.  On the French side, there was a “prioritization of the topic of the threshold,” said a Parliament official familiar with the details. THE BACKSTORY Berlin especially has long been at the forefront of the political war against the supply chain oversight law, with liberal and conservative politicians turning their opposition into a core component of electoral politics at a time of economic downturn, warnings of de-industrialization and global trade wars.  Even well before the Commission presented its rules, Germany was pressing Brussels to follow its lead and exempt companies with fewer than 1,000 employees. Back in 2022 the bill was already falling short of what progressive lawmakers and green groups were requesting.  After all three EU institutions managed to clinch a deal in December 2023 — overcoming an attempt by center-right European People’s Party (EPP) lawmakers to kill the file, and having already agreed to carve out the financial sector to win France over — the horse-trading intensified. Germany’s liberals, back then the smallest party in the three-party coalition of former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, launched a last-ditch push to kill the heavily lobbied and controversial file altogether, despite major disagreements within the national coalition government. France and Italy both jumped on the bandwagon.  Despite all this, the measure made it through.   Now, the survival of EU supply chain oversight rules is part of the new coalition agreement between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats (SPD) in Berlin. In principle, the agreement binds the German chancellor to protect the bill, albeit with a promise to trim the bureaucratic burden in the text. But tensions are simmering beneath the surface. Now, the survival of EU supply chain oversight rules is part of the new coalition agreement between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats (SPD) in Berlin. | Filip Singer/EPA “Many people would have benefited from the law, but their voices were not loud enough — while the bureaucracy debate overshadowed the debate,” said one German government official, granted anonymity to speak freely about internal political dynamics.  THE FRENCH U-TURN Macron’s position was far less consistent than Merz’s. He performed a spectacular U-turn to become the No. 1 opponent of a text he and his governments had advocated, at least publicly. Having been one of the first countries to enact a national law banning human rights abuses and environmental breaches from supply chains, France initially cast itself as a top supporter of the text and made it a priority when it held the rotating Council presidency back in 2022. Then, last year, Paris piggybacked on Berlin’s opposition, requesting that the law apply to fewer companies. Fast forward to 2025, and the French have become fierce critics of the text. Earlier this year, POLITICO revealed that Paris had asked the European Commission to indefinitely delay the text. That was before Macron told a roomful of business CEOs gathered in Versailles from all over the world that the text should be thrown out altogether.  While the president’s shift is music to the ears of France’s industry lobbies, it has also triggered an internal revolt from his allies who warned against sacrificing green and anti-forced labor rules under pressure from business.  And unlike about a year ago, Berlin and Paris are facing barely any pushback.  Last year, the Greens and the Social Democrats in the former German coalition government voiced their opposition to Berlin’s attempts to kill the bill, before giving in to pressure from the liberals. Now, the Social Democrats co-governing with Merz’ conservative party are mostly quiet. On Wednesday, the SPD-led labor ministry finally broke its silence, saying it was in “favor of reducing the administrative burden on companies and at the same time effectively protecting human rights.” Calls to alleviate the burden for businesses, it seems, have become the new political consensus. “The whole narrative has gotten out of hand. And no one is still up against it,” Gardiner said. Marianne Gros and Antonia Zimmermann reported from Brussels, Giorgio Leali reported from Paris and Laura Hülsemann reported from Berlin.