European Union Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said the bloc should
consider establishing a standing military force of 100,000 troops and overhaul
the political processes governing defense.
Faced with Russian aggression and the U.S. shifting its focus away from Europe
and threatening Greenland, Kubilius argued for a “big bang” approach to
re-imagining Europe’s common defense.
“Would the United States be militarily stronger if they would have 50 armies on
the States level instead of a single federal army,” he said at a Swedish
security conference on Sunday. “Fifty state defence policies and defense budgets
on the states level, instead of a single federal defense policy and budget?”
“If our answer is ‘no,’ [the] USA would not be stronger, then — what are we
waiting for?”
Kubilius said Europe’s defense readiness depends on three pillars: more
investment in production capacity; institutions that are prepared and
organization; and the political will to deter and, if needed, fight.
Merely increasing funding for Europe’s existing defense setup won’t meet these
requirements, he said, in part because of a lack of unity.
Andrius Kubilius said Europe’s defense readiness depends on more investment in
production, institutions that are prepared and the political will to deter and,
if needed, fight. | Antonio Pedro Santos/EPA
“We need to start to invest our money in such a way, that we would be able to
fight as Europe, not just as collection of 27 national ‘bonsai armies’,” he
said, borrowing a phrase from former EU High Representative Josep Borrell.
Europe could instead create — “as Jean-Claude Juncker, Emmanuel Macron, Angela
Merkel already proposed 10 years ago” a powerful, standing “European military
force” of 100,000 troops, he said.
To help solve the issue of political will, Kubilius wants to establish a
European Security Council. The idea has been talked up by French President
Macron and former German Chancellor Merkel.
“The European Security Council could be composed of key permanent members, along
with several rotational members, including the member state with the Council
presidency,” said Kubilius. “Plus the leadership of the EU: Commission and
Council presidents.”
The proposed security council should also include the United Kingdom, Kubilius
said.
“In total around 10-12 members, with the task to discuss the most important
issues in defense, some of which I just mentioned before,” Kubilius said. “And
not only discussing, but also swiftly preparing important decisions.”
Tag - Council presidency
BRUSSELS — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is determined to
travel to South America next week to sign the EU’s long-delayed trade pact with
the Mercosur bloc, but she’s having to make last-minute pledges to Europe’s
farmers in order to board that flight.
EU countries are set to make a pivotal decision on Friday on whether the
contentious deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — which has been
more than a quarter of a century in the making — will finally get over the line.
It’s still not certain that von der Leyen can secure the majority she needs on
Friday; everything boils down to whether Italy, the key swing voter, will
support the accord.
To secure Rome’s backing, von der Leyen on Tuesday rolled out some extra budget
promises on farm funding. The target was clear: Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia
Meloni, whose refusal to back the Mercosur agreement forced von der Leyen to
cancel her planned signing trip in December.
At its heart, the Mercosur agreement is a drive by Europe’s big manufacturers to
sell more cars, machinery and chemicals in Latin America, while the agri
powerhouses of the southern hemisphere will secure greater access to sell food
to Europe — a prospect that terrifies EU farmers.
While Germany and Spain have long led the charge for a deal, France and Poland
are dead-set against. That leaves Italy as the key member country poised to cast
the deciding vote.
Von der Leyen’s letter on Tuesday was carefully choreographed political theater.
Writing to the EU Council presidency and European Parliament President Roberta
Metsola, she offered earlier access to up to €45 billion in agricultural funding
under the bloc’s next long-term budget, while reaffirming €293.7 billion in farm
spending after 2027. POLITICO was the first to report on Monday that the
declaration was in the works.
She insisted the measures in her letter would “provide the farmers and rural
communities with an unprecedented level of support, in some respects even higher
than in
the current budget cycle.”
The money isn’t new — it’s being brought forward from an existing pot in the
EU’s next long-term budget — but governments can now lock it in for farmers
early, before it is reassigned during later budget negotiations.
Von der Leyen framed the move as offering stability and crisis readiness, giving
Meloni a tangible win she can parade to her powerful farm lobby.
WILL MELONI BACK MERCOSUR?
The big question is whether Italy will view von der Leyen’s promises as going
far enough ahead of the crunch meeting on Friday.
Early signs suggested Rome might be softening. Meloni issued a statement saying
the farm funding pledge was “a positive and significant step forward in the
negotiations leading to the new EU budget,” but conspicuously avoided making a
direct link to Mercosur. (French President Emmanuel Macron also welcomed von der
Leyen’s letter, but there’s no prospect of Paris backing Mercosur on Friday.)
taly’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose refusal to back the Mercosur
agreement forced Ursula von der Leyen to cancel her planned signing trip in
December. | Tom Nicholson/Getty Images
Nicola Procaccini, a close Meloni ally in the European Parliament, told
POLITICO: “We are moving in the right direction to enable Italy to sign
Mercosur.”
Right direction, but not yet at the destination? The government in Rome would
not comment on whether it was about to back the deal.
Germany, the EU’s industrial kingpin, is keen to secure a Mercosur agreement to
boost its exports, but is still wary as to whether sufficient support exists to
finalize an accord on Friday.
A German official cautioned everything was still to play for. “A qualified
majority is emerging, but it’s not a done deal yet. Until we have the result,
there’s no reason to sit back and relax,” the official said.
Optimism is growing regarding Rome in the pro-Mercosur camp, however. After all,
the pact is widely viewed as strongly in the interests not only of Italy’s
engineering companies, but also of its high-end wine and food producers, which
are big exporters to South America.
Additional curveballs are being thrown by Romania and Czechia, said one EU
diplomat, who expressed concern they could turn against the deal on Friday,
reducing any majority to very tight margins. The diplomat said they believed
Italy would back the deal, however.
FINAL STRETCH?
The maneuvering is set to continue on Wednesday, when agriculture ministers
descend on Brussels for what the Commission is billing as a “political meeting”
after December’s farm protests. Officially, Mercosur isn’t on the agenda.
Unofficially, however, it’s expected to be omnipresent — in the corridors, in
the side meetings, and in the questions ministers choose not to answer.
Farm ministers don’t approve trade deals, but the optics matter. Von der Leyen
needs momentum — and cover — ahead of Friday’s vote.
France — the country most hostile to the deal — will be vocal.
On Wednesday, French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard is expected to open yet
another offensive — this time for a lower trigger on emergency safeguards
related to the deal. This would reopen a compromise already struck between EU
governments, the Parliament and the Commission.
It’s a familiar tactic: Keep pushing.
“France is still not satisfied with the proposals made by the Commission,” a
French agriculture ministry official told reporters on Tuesday, while
acknowledging that there has been some improvement. “Paris’ strategy for this
week is still to continue to look for a blocking minority.”
“Italy has its own strategy, we have ours,” added the official, who was granted
anonymity in line with the rules for French government briefings.
France’s allies, notably Poland, are equally blunt. Agriculture Minister Stefan
Krajewski said the priority was simply “to block this agreement.” If that
failed, Warsaw would seek maximum safeguards and compensation.
That means it’s all coming down to the wire on Friday.
A second failure to dispatch von der Leyen to finalize the agreement would be
deeply embarrassing, and would only stoke Berlin’s anger at other EU countries
thwarting the deal.
For now, it’s still unclear whether von der Leyen will board that plane.
Bartosz Brzeziński reported from Brussels, Giorgio Leali reported from Paris,
and Nette Nöstlinger reported from Berlin.
BRUSSELS — After years of being treated as an outlier for its hardline stance on
migration, Denmark says it has finally brought the rest of the EU on board with
its tough approach.
Europe’s justice and home affairs ministers on Monday approved new measures
allowing EU countries to remove failed asylum seekers, set up processing centers
overseas and create removal hubs outside their borders — measures Copenhagen has
long advocated.
The deal was “many years in the making,” said Rasmus Stoklund, Denmark’s
center-left minister for integration who has driven migration negotiations
during his country’s six-month presidency of the Council of the EU.
Stoklund told POLITICO that when he first started working on the migration brief
a decade ago in the Danish parliament, his fellow left-wingers around the bloc
viewed his government’s position as so egregious that “other social democrats
wouldn’t meet with me.” Over the last few years, “there’s been a huge change in
perception,” Stoklund said.
When the deal was done Monday, the “sigh of relief” from ministers and their
aides was palpable, with people embracing one another and heaping praise on both
the Danish brokers and Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission that put
forward the initial proposal, according to a diplomat who was in the room.
Sweden’s Migration Minister Johan Forssell, a member of the conservative
Moderate party, told POLITICO Monday’s deal was vital “to preserve, like, any
public trust at all in the migration system today … we need to show that the
system is working.”
Stockholm, which has in the past prided itself on taking a liberal approach to
migration, has recently undergone a Damascene conversion to the Danish model,
implementing tough measures to limit family reunification, tightening rules
around obtaining Swedish citizenship, and limiting social benefits for new
arrivals.
Forssell said the deal was important because “many people” around Europe
criticize the EU over inaction on migration “because they cannot do themselves
what [should be done] on the national basis.” The issue, he said, is a prime
example of “why there must be a strong European Union.”
SEALING THE DEAL
Monday’s deal — whose impact will “hopefully be quite dramatic,” Stoklund said —
comes two years after the EU signed off on a new law governing asylum and
migration, which must be implemented by June.
Voters have “made clear to governments all over the European Union, that they
couldn’t accept that they weren’t able to control the access to their
countries,” Stoklund said.
“Governments have realized that if they didn’t take this question seriously,
then [voters] would back more populist movements that would take it seriously —
and use more drastic measures in order to find new solutions.”
Stockholm has recently undergone a Damascene conversion to the Danish model,
implementing tough measures to limit family reunification, tightening rules
around obtaining Swedish citizenship, and limiting social benefits for new
arrivals. | Henrick Montgomery/EPA
Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner, the Danish Council presidency and
ministers were at pains to point out that Monday’s agreement showed the EU could
get deals done.
After the last EU election in 2024, the new Commission’s “first task” was to
“bring our European house in order,” Brunner said. “Today we’re showing that
Europe can actually deliver and we delivered quite a lot.”
WHAT’S NEW
The ministers backed new rules to detain and deport migrants, including measures
that would allow the bloc and individual countries to cut deals to set up
migration processing hubs in other nations, regardless of whether the people
being moved there have a connection with those countries.
Ministers supported changes that will allow capitals to reject applications if
asylum seekers, prior to first entering the EU, could have received
international protection in a non-EU country the bloc deems safe, and signed off
on a common list of countries of origin considered safe.
Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia are on that
latter list, as are countries that are candidates to join the EU. But the deal
also leaves room for exceptions — such as Ukraine, which is at war.
Asylum seekers won’t automatically have the right to remain in the EU while they
appeal a ruling that their refuge application was inadmissible.
The next step for the measures will be negotiations with the European
Parliament, once it has decided its position on the proposals.
Max Griera contributed reporting.
European Council President António Costa intends to summon EU leaders to an
informal retreat in rural Belgium next February to discuss Europe’s
competitiveness.
The meeting of the bloc’s heads of state and government will take place on Feb.
12 at Alden Biesen Castle, a XVI century moated complex in the eastern Belgian
region of Limburg, Costa said in an interview with Portuguese daily Expresso.
The informal summit on competitiveness will take place just a few months after
the leaders debated the European Commission’s proposal to foster a pan-European
industrial revival by merging cash for research, defense and innovation in the
EU’s 2028-2035 budget.
Shortly before taking office a year ago, the Council president said he wanted to
organize periodic, informal meetings of EU leaders where they could discuss
broad, strategic topics without the need to reach definitive conclusions. The
objective was to create space for the kinds of debates that regularly derailed
official summits chaired by Costa’s predecessor, Charles Michel.
Although Costa wanted to hold the retreats outside the Belgian capital, security
concerns obliged him to hold the first of these events in Brussels’ central
Egmont Palace last February. During that session, EU leaders discussed issues
related to the wider topic of European defense. Last week the bloc’s leaders
attended an informal meeting in Luanda, Angola, where talks focused on the
ongoing efforts to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine.
During the wide-ranging interview with Expresso, which marked his first year in
the Council presidency, Costa said the greatest challenge he has faced was that
of stabilizing relations between the EU and U.S. President Donald Trump. That
goal, he said, had been achieved, but he acknowledged that the dynamics between
Brussels and Washington are “different” than they once were.
Costa said it was essential for the EU to “remain calm, serene, and continue to
strive to be constructive” when dealing with Trump, and noted that the
relationship between Brussels and Washington is not “between equals.” The EU, he
noted, is made up of 27 member countries “each with its own policies and
interests,” while the U.S. operates as a single, federal entity.
BRUSSELS — The European Union’s environment ministers struck a deal watering
down a proposed 2040 target for cutting planet-warming emissions and set a new
2035 climate plan.
Following marathon negotiations all day Tuesday and into Wednesday morning,
ministers unanimously approved the bloc’s long-overdue climate plan, rescuing
the EU from the international embarrassment of showing up empty handed this
month’s COP30 summit.
The plan, which is a requirement under the Paris Agreement, sets a new goal to
slash EU emissions between 66.25 percent and 72.5 percent below 1990 levels
until 2035.
That plan is not legally binding but sets the direction of EU climate policy for
the coming five years. The range is similar to an informal statement that the EU
presented at a climate summit in New York in September.
Ministers also adopted a legally-binding target for cutting emissions in the EU
by 85 percent by 2040. The deal mandates that another 5 percent reduction be
achieved by outsourcing pollution cuts abroad through the purchase of
international carbon credits.
On top of that, governments would be allowed to use credits to outsource another
5 percentage points of their national emissions reduction goals.
Ministers also backed a wide-ranging review clause that allows the EU to adjust
its 2040 target in the future if climate policy proves to have negative impacts
on the EU’s economy. The deal also foresees a one-year delay to the
implementation of the EU’s new carbon market for heating and car emissions,
which is set to start in 2027.
Hungary, Slovakia and Poland did not support the 2040 deal, while Bulgaria and
Belgium abstained. The rest of the EU27 countries backed it.
Lawmakers in the European Parliament now have to agree on their own position on
the 2040 climate target and negotiate with the Council of the EU before the
target becomes law.
BRUSSELS — A weeks-long stalemate holding up the latest package of sanctions
against Russia was ended Wednesday night after Slovakia lifted its veto, the
Danish presidency of the Council of the EU confirmed.
The bulk of the package — the 19th to be imposed on Moscow since the start of
its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago — focuses on
sapping the Kremlin’s war chest by imposing restrictions on energy traders and
financial institutions, many of them in third countries.
Companies helping the Russian war effort will be targeted, in addition to 117
new tankers considered to be part of the shadow fleet that ships Russian fossil
fuels in violation of the oil price cap.
Earlier this week, energy ministers from 27 member countries agreed by qualified
majority to a landmark phaseout of Russian gas, against the objections of
Slovakia and Hungary. Slovakia had vowed to hold up the sanctions package unless
it was given assurances on how to combat high energy prices and aid heavy
industries like car making.
Austria and Hungary had also expressed concerns over the sanctions package but
lifted their veto in recent days. Slovakia was the last country blocking the new
restrictions — and had sought concessions in the statement to be agreed at
Thursday’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels.
“All our demands … were included [in the statement],” a Slovak diplomat
confirmed to POLITICO.
The summit will seek to stress the EU’s support of Ukraine, in light of U.S.
President Donald Trump’s pressure on Kyiv to cede territory to Russia. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to join parts of the meeting in
Brussels.
Leaders are expected to emphasize the need to further hit Moscow with hefty
sanctions over its war against Ukraine. Defense spending as well as the use of
frozen Russian assets to support Kyiv are all on the agenda.
The sanctions package will also significantly expand the number of non-Russian
companies banned from doing business with the bloc in a bid to prevent Moscow
from circumventing the restrictions.
Defense spending as well as the use of frozen Russian assets to support Kyiv are
all on the agenda. | Sergey Shestak/EPA
Specifically, the bloc seeks to add export controls on another 45 companies that
are deemed to be working together to evade sanctions. Those include 12 Chinese,
two Thai and three Indian entities that have enabled Russia to circumvent the
bloc’s sanctions.
The package also restricts the movement of Russian diplomats within the EU. They
will have to notify other EU governments of their movements before crossing the
border of their host country.
The package will now go through a so-called written procedure, where capitals
have until Thursday morning to speak up. If no one does, the text is approved.
Denmark summoned the top U.S. diplomat in Copenhagen on Wednesday after Danish
media reported that Americans with ties to President Donald Trump had carried
out covert influence operations in Greenland.
Danish broadcaster DR reported that at least three U.S. citizens linked to the
U.S. government were involved in activities that, reportedly, authorities fear
could be used covertly to support Trump’s desire to make Greenland part of the
United States.
Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said the U.S. chargé d’affaires —
currently its most senior diplomat in Denmark — had been summoned in response.
He called any interference in Danish affairs “unacceptable,” and emphasized that
Copenhagen “will of course not accept covert operations on our territory,” in a
statement emailed by his ministry, according to the AP.
“It worries me greatly because we do not spy on friends,” Rasmussen also said in
response to a report in The Wall Street Journal.
According to DR, one of the men compiled lists of Greenlanders supportive of, or
critical toward, U.S. influence, while others maintained political and business
contacts on the island. It was unclear whether they acted independently or under
direction from U.S. officials.
The move comes amid ongoing tensions over Greenland, a mineral-rich,
self-governing Danish territory. Earlier this year, Trump told CNN that
Washington would “100 percent” gain control of Greenland, even repeatedly
threatening to use military force.
Greenland is strategically important for U.S. military and Arctic security
interests. Contacted by DR, Denmark’s security and intelligence service, known
as PET, said the territory “is the target of influence campaigns of various
kinds” and had strengthened monitoring in cooperation with Greenlandic
authorities.
Denmark is prepared to face down the European Parliament over tougher migration
rules, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told lawmakers as her country takes up
the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU.
“We have to lower the influx of migrants to Europe,” she said in Strasbourg on
Tuesday.
Frederiksen has built a reputation as the black sheep of European social
democrats because she often sides with the right in pushing forward tougher
rules on asylum and border checks.
“What has been mainstream among our populations for quite many years is now
mainstream for many of us politicians as well, finally,” she said. “Maybe not in
Parliament, but gladly, and I am really happy about that, in the European
Council,” where several leaders of EU countries leaders are determined to
address migration problems.
In pushing for a tougher approach Frederiksen finds herself on the same side as
right-wing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and center-right Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk.
The Parliament ― the bloc’s only directly elected body ― is more divided than
Europe’s governments, however. With a right-wing bloc pushing for stricter
rules, and a center-left bloc opposing them, it will be complicated for the
house’s centrist political families to come to any agreement on legislation.
Following the EU election in June last year, which saw a surge in support to
right-wing and far-right parties elected on an anti-migration base, the European
Commission announced it would propose rules that would increase deportations, as
well as a revision of the safe third country concept to allow for easier returns
of migrants to countries they are not originally from. It would also make it
easier for countries to set up so-called return hubs.
TOUGH PRIORITY
Migration is one of the topics where the center-right European People’s Party
could bypass its traditional mainstream allies and use the support of right-wing
and far-right groups.
“It is challenging Europe, affecting people’s lives, and the cohesion of our
societies,” Frederiksen said. “We saw it very clearly in the European Parliament
elections last year. Migration was a tough priority for many Europeans,
including myself.”
Denmark, whose EU presidency will run until the end of 2025, will prioritize the
proposals the Commission has already set out, and also “provide a much more
effective response to Russia,” which, Frederiksen said, was “using migration as
a weapon at our eastern borders.”
“Our citizens expect us politicians to find new solutions with a good reason and
European citizens have a right to feel safe in their own countries,” she said.
“That is why we need to strengthen our external borders.”
BRUSSELS — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen never pushed to
withdraw an anti-greenwashing bill and still supports it, according to a
Commission official familiar with von der Leyen’s stance.
“The president’s support for the Green Claims has not changed,” the official
told POLITICO on Tuesday.
The assertion comes just days after a Commission spokesperson on Friday said the
opposite — that the EU’s executive body intended to pull the proposed Green
Claims Directive, which aims to police false sustainability claims by
companies.
That was wrong, said the Commission official, who was granted anonymity to speak
freely about a politically sensitive topic.
“At no point has there been a backtrack on commitment to the Green Claims,” the
official said.
Friday’s move ignited a political firestorm in Brussels, with centrists and
left-leaning politicians raging that von der Leyen’s team had trashed the
legislative process and attacked yet another green policy.
The Commission official disputed the allegation. The EU executive, the official
said, would only kill the file if a resolution was not found over a specific
issue: whether the law should cover businesses with fewer than 10 employees.
Brussels had proposed exempting them, but EU capitals were seeking to include
them.
“The Commission made the point that that would go beyond the scope of the
original proposal and change the nature of it,” the official said.
Still, Friday’s announcement — made just days before the final round of talks to
finalize a deal were due to take place — left EU diplomats and European
Parliament members confused about whether the deal was off or not. They said the
lingering dispute about small companies was slated for discussion in that last
round of talks.
Numerous centrist and center-left lawmakers also accused von der Leyen of bowing
to her center-right European People’s Party, which declared its opposition to
the rule last week.
The statement prompted the Polish Council presidency, which runs the
negotiations on behalf of EU countries, to pause talks over the uncertainty,
saying it would “wait for clarity from the European Commission on its
intentions.”
The process eroded further on Monday, when Italy officially pulled its support
for the law, killing the majority supporting the deal and bringing negotiations
to a complete halt.
Despite the Commission’s seemingly having prompted the collapse of the talks,
the Commission official said it was up to EU countries to find a way forward.
“It’s up to the Council to state what its intentions are, and then we see from
there. But that’s because of the Italians withdrawing; the Commission has not
withdrawn,” the Commission official said.
The Polish presidency told POLITICO that EU ambassadors will discuss the topic
on Wednesday.
“Since a lot has happened in recent days, it’s important to take time to hear
from [EU countries] and carefully reflect on the way forward together,” a
spokesperson said.
BRUSSELS ― The European Union is looking to extract billions of extra euros from
frozen Russian assets by moving them into riskier investments — via a plan that
would increase aid to Ukraine while avoiding accusations of stealing Moscow’s
money.
The EU executive is considering transferring almost €200 billion of frozen
Russian state assets held in Belgium into a new, riskier investment fund that
would pay out higher interest, four officials with knowledge of proceedings told
POLITICO.
The goal is to generate more profits to help keep Ukraine’s war-battered economy
afloat amid U.S. president Donald Trump’s threats to halt funding. The assets
were frozen in 2022 in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
However, the move would stop short of confiscating the Russian assets altogether
— which is opposed by several EU states including Germany and Italy over
financial and legal concerns.
By only spending the interest and leaving the underlying capital untouched, the
EU hopes it can avoid accusations of breaching international law.
Members of the G7 group of industrialized countries last year agreed to give
Ukraine €45 billion generated by investing the immobilized sovereign assets.
The EU’s €18 billion share of the G7 loan, however, will be entirely paid out by
the end of the year ― raising questions on how Ukraine’s funding needs will
continue being met in 2026.
Finance ministers from the EU’s 27 countries will kickstart these discussions on
Thursday at an informal dinner in Luxembourg.
“It is important that we hear from the Commission on the available options,
especially regarding the potential use of frozen Russian assets and further
steps regarding the sanctions regime,” the rotating Polish Council presidency,
which organized the dinner, wrote in the invitation letter to ministers seen by
POLITICO.
Poland also suggested that the EU’s new defense loan scheme, SAFE, can be used
by countries to buy weapons for Ukraine.
Thursday’s meeting will set the scene for months of tense discussions as
European capitals with overstretched budgets are increasingly torn between
continuing to support Ukraine and delivering on domestic priorities.
THE EU’S WORKAROUND
As a potential workaround, EU officials are considering transferring the assets
from Euroclear in Belgium to a “special purpose vehicle” under the EU’s
umbrella.
The main advantage of creating the new fund quickly is that the assets could
then be assigned to riskier investments capable of generating much higher
returns for Ukraine. The officials did not say exactly what sort of investments
these might be.
The Russian assets are blocked under the EU’s sanctions regime — which must be
unanimously renewed every six months — and the Hungarian government has
repeatedly threatened to use its veto as a sign of goodwill towards the Kremlin.
| Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images
Under its rules, Euroclear is obliged to invest the assets — many of which have
now matured into liquid cash — with the Belgian central bank, which offers the
lowest risk-free rate of return available.
In 2024, the windfall profits generated by such investments amounted to €4
billion, which was later earmarked to service the G7 loan to Ukraine.
Supporters of the new investment fund argue that the EU has to generate more
revenues from Russia’s sovereign funds to bolster Ukraine in the long term amid
a protracted standoff in the peace talks with Moscow.
Another potential advantage is that it could prove a useful shield against the
risk that Hungary might veto the sanctions renewal and effectively hand back the
money to Russia.
The Russian assets are blocked under the EU’s sanctions regime — which must be
unanimously renewed every six months — and the Hungarian government has
repeatedly threatened to use its veto as a sign of goodwill towards the Kremlin.
Over the past weeks, the Commission held informal talks with a group of
countries — including France, Germany, Italy and Estonia — to examine legal ways
to keep the assets frozen if Hungary blocks the sanctions renewal, two officials
with knowledge of proceedings told POLITICO. But the working group did not
devise a workaround to achieve this outcome.
TOUGH BUDGET ARITHMETIC
EU officials are looking for ways to set up the new fund by simple majority — as
opposed to unanimity — to sideline Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Critics of the new funding vehicle, however, warn that EU taxpayers will
ultimately have to pay compensation for any unproductive investments that are
made.
The EU is looking for creative solutions as its central €1.2 trillion cash pot —
which governs all public spending — is overstretched and the new budget will
only come into force in 2028.
“It’s not going to be easy to find money under the current MFF [multiannual
financial framework],” said an EU diplomat.
A large part of the EU’s €50 billion cash pot to Ukraine, which was agreed in
2023 and was set to last until the end of 2027, has already been spent.
Besides the economic constraints, officials are skeptical about the idea of
further topping up the EU’s central budget as this requires unanimity — and
Hungary is likely to hold out.