Prime minister’s questions: a shouty, jeery, very occasionally useful advert for British politics. Here’s what you need to know from the latest session in POLITICO’s weekly run-through. What they sparred about: Foreign affairs. Keir Starmer wanted solving the cost of living to define 2026 but, as is so often the case, Donald Trump put paid to that. The PM and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch started the new year as they meant to go on by jousting about the U.S. president’s plan to control Greenland — and whether NATO had any future. First, a news line: One of Starmer’s new year resolutions may have been to make more news at PMQs. He succeeded on that front at least by confirming MPs would have a debate and vote on deploying British troops to Ukraine, if a ceasefire was reached. “That is consistent with recent practice, and I’ll adhere to that.” Here’s looking at you, Tony Blair. Statement of discontent: Badenoch’s line of attack was initially tricky to spot, as she agrees with the PM about supporting Ukraine and protecting Greenland’s sovereignty from Donald Trump. However, while praising Starmer’s “efforts to advance peace,” Badenoch lambasted the “frankly astonishing” decision for the PM not to make a statement to the Commons as a “fundamental lack of respect.” War of words: Starmer pointed out Tuesday’s coalition of the willing meeting in Paris resulted in a political declaration rather than a legal deployment. He stressed any British troops would “only be after a ceasefire to support Ukraine’s capabilities to conduct deterrent operations,” and there was ample time for MPs to “make their points of view.” Finger-pointing: That, natch, wasn’t enough for Badenoch, who claimed Starmer was running “scared” of MPs. “He’s got no choice but to be here,” she said about his presence in the chamber. “If he could skip this, we know he would do.” There’s nothing like PMQs to reduce an international issue to personal disagreements. Calling for an urgent meeting of NATO members, the PM praised a “strong” meeting of the bloc last year and highlighted that the Tory leader criticized him for missing PMQs to attend it. Military might: Starmer used PMQs as a vehicle to summarize Tuesday’s events in France, stressing the troops “would be to support Ukraine’s capabilities, it would be to conduct deterrence operations and to construct and protect military hubs.” However, there was less clarity about the exact number of people who would be deployed — which is either because ministers can’t tell us or they don’t yet know. Back to the domestic: Naturally, interest in the nuances of Kyiv’s position and the future of Greenland could only last so long. What began as a spiky exchange descended into the usual tirade of anger as the duo squared off over defense spending, protecting Northern Ireland veterans, and Shadow Attorney General David Wolfson representing sanctioned Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich. The outcome, as always, was clear as mud. Helpful backbench intervention of the week: Brentford and Isleworth MP Ruth Cadbury queried when legislation reforming leasehold would be introduced. It was a new year, but the same Starmer — he didn’t provide a timetable but sang the praises of his reforms for renters and laid into the Tories and, er, Reform UK for voting against them. Totally unscientific scores on the doors: Starmer 6/10. Badenoch 7/10. Neither leader enjoyed their best outing as they cranked back into gear after Christmas. Sober minds on the volatile geopolitical situation were missing in action: Badenoch ripped into the PM not speaking to Donald Trump recently, while Starmer tore into Tory contradictions. The Conservative leader slamming Starmer for not making an explicit statement after such a monumental meeting just about gave her a very middling win.

HOW DO BULGARIANS FEEL ABOUT JOINING THE EURO? The Balkan nation is sharply divided about bidding farewell to the lev.  Text by BORYANA DZHAMBAZOVA Photos by DOBRIN KASHAVELOV in Pernik, Bulgaria Bulgaria is set to adopt the EU’s single currency on Jan. 1, but polling shows the Balkan nation is sharply divided on whether it’s a good thing. POLITICO spoke to some Bulgarians about their fears and hopes, as they say goodbye to their national currency, the lev. Their comments have been edited for length. ANTON TEOFILOV, 73 Vendor at the open-air market in Pernik, a small city 100 kilometers from Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? We are a different generation, but we support the euro. We’ll benefit hugely from joining the eurozone. It will make paying anywhere in the EU easy and hassle-free. It would be great for both the economy and the nation. You can travel, do business, do whatever you want using a single currency — no more hassle or currency exchanges. You can go to Greece and buy a bottle of ouzo with the same currency. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? I don’t expect any turbulence — from January on we would just pay in euros. No one is complaining about the price tags in euros, and in lev at the moment. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? The lev is a wonderful thing, but its time has passed; that’s just how life works. It will be much better for the economy to adopt the euro. It will be so much easier to share a common currency with the other EU countries. Now, if you go to Greece, as many Bulgarians do, you need to exchange money. After January – wherever you need to make a payment – either going to the store, or to buy produce for our business, it would be one and the same. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? The state needs to explain things more clearly to those who are confused. We are a people who often need a lot of convincing, and on top of that, we’re a divided nation. If you ask me, we need to get rid of half the MPs in Parliament – they receive hefty salaries and are a burden to taxpayers, like parasites, without doing any meaningful work. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? There are 27 member states, and we will become one with them. There will be no difference between Germany and us—we’ll be much closer to Europe. I remember the 1990s, when you needed to fill out endless paperwork just to travel, let alone to work abroad. I spent a year working in construction in Germany, and getting all the permits and visas was a major headache. Now things are completely different, and joining the eurozone is another step toward that openness. Advertisement PETYA SPASOVA, 55 Orthopedic doctor in Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? It worries me a lot. I don’t think this is the right moment for Bulgaria to join the eurozone. First, the country is politically very unstable, and the eurozone itself faces serious problems. As the poorest EU member state, we won’t be immune to those issues. On the contrary, they will only deepen the crisis here. The war in Ukraine, the growing debt in Germany and France … now we’d be sharing the debts of the whole of Europe. We are adopting the euro at a time when economies are strained, and that will lead to serious disruptions and a higher cost of living. I don’t understand why the state insists so strongly on joining the eurozone. I don’t think we’re ready. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? Even now, when you go to the store and look at the price of bread or other basic foods, we see prices climbing. I’m afraid many people will end up living in extreme poverty. We barely produce anything; we’re a country built on services. When people get poorer, they naturally start consuming less. I’m not worried about myself or my family. We live in Sofia, where there are more job opportunities and higher salaries. I’m worried about people in general. Every day I see patients who can’t even afford the travel costs to come to Sofia for medical check-ups. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? I’m extremely worried. I don’t want to relive the economic crisis of the 90s, when the country was on the verge of bankruptcy. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? No one cares what people think. Many countries held referendums and decided not to join the eurozone. I don’t believe our politicians can do anything at this point. I’m not even sure they know what needs to be done. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? I feel offended when I hear this question. We’ve been part of Europe for a very long time, long before many others. We can exchange best practices in culture, science, education, and more, but that has nothing to do with the eurozone. Joining can only bring trouble. I remember years ago when I actually hoped Bulgaria would enter the eurozone. But that was a different Europe. Now things are deteriorating; the spirit of a united Europe is gone. I don’t want to be part of this Europe. Advertisement SVETOSLAV BONINSKI, 53 Truck driver from Gabrovo, a small city in central Bulgaria What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? I’m against Bulgaria joining the eurozone. We saw how Croatia and Greece sank into debt once they adopted the euro. I don’t want Bulgaria to go down the same path. Greece had to take a huge loan to bail out its economy. When they still had the drachma, their economy was strong and stable. After entering the eurozone, many big companies were forced to shut down and inflation went through the roof. Even the German economy is experiencing a downturn.. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? I worry that there will be speculation and rising inflation. Five years ago, I used to buy cigarettes in Slovakia at prices similar to Bulgaria. Now I can’t find anything cheaper than €5 per pack. They saw their prices rise after the introduction of the euro. We’ll repeat the Slovakia scenario. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? We can already feel that things won’t end well — prices have gone up significantly, just like in Croatia. I’m afraid that even in the first year wages won’t be able to compensate for the rise in prices, and people will become even more impoverished. I expect the financial situation to worsen. Our government isn’t taking any responsibility for that. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? I hope they will make an effort. We are completely ill-equipped to adopt the euro—all the stats and figures the government presents are lies. We must wait until the country is ready to manage the euro as a currency. We’re doing fine with the lev. We should wait for the economy to grow and for wages to catch up with the rest of Europe. The only thing the state could do to ease the process is to step down. The current government is interested in entering the eurozone only to receive large amounts of funding, most of which they will probably pocket themselves. The Bulgarian lev is very stable, unlike the euro, which is quite an unstable currency. All the eurozone countries are burdened with trillions in debt, while those outside it are doing quite well. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? I don’t think so. We’ve been part of Europe for a long time. The only difference now will be that Brussels will tell us what to do and will control our budget and spending. Brussels will be in charge from now on. No good awaits us. Elderly people won’t receive decent pensions and will work until we drop dead. Advertisement NATALI ILIEVA, 20 Political science student from Pernik What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? I see it as a step forward for us. It’s a positive development for both society and the country. I expect that joining the eurozone will help the economy grow and position Bulgaria more firmly within Europe. For ordinary people, it will make things easier, especially when traveling, since we’ll be using the same currency. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? The transition period might be difficult at first. I don’t think the change of currency will dramatically affect people’s daily lives – after all, under the currency board, the lev has been pegged to the euro for years. Some people are worried that prices might rise, and this is where the state must step in to monitor the situation, prevent abuse, and make the transition as smooth as possible. As part of my job at the youth center, I travel a lot in Europe. Being part of the eurozone would make travel much more convenient. My life would be so much easier! I wouldn’t have to worry about carrying euros in cash or paying additional fees when withdrawing money abroad, or wondering: Did I take the right debit card in euros? Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? I’m more concerned that the issue will be politicized by certain parties to further polarize society. Joining the eurozone is a logical next step – we agreed to it by default when we joined the bloc in 2007. There is so much disinformation circulating on social media that it’s hard for some people to see the real facts and distinguish what’s true from what’s not. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? The state needs to launch an information campaign to make the transition as smooth as possible. Authorities should explain what the change of currency means for people in a clear and accessible way. You don’t need elaborate language to communicate what’s coming, especially when some radical parties are aggressively spreading anti-euro and anti-EU rhetoric. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? Yes, I think it will help the country become better integrated into Europe. In the end, I believe people will realize that joining the eurozone will be worth it. Advertisement YANA TANKOVSKA, 47 Jewelry artist based in Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? If you ask me, the eurozone is on the verge of collapse, and now we have decided to join? I don’t think it’s a good idea. In theory, just like communism, the idea of a common currency union might sound good, but in practice it doesn’t really work out. I have friends working and living abroad [in eurozone countries], and things are not looking up for regular people, even in Germany. We all thought we would live happily as members of the bloc, but that’s not the reality. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? I expect the first half of next year to be turbulent. But we are used to surviving, so we will adapt yet again. Personally, we might have to trim some expenses, go out less, and make sure the family budget holds. I make jewelry, so I’m afraid I’ll have fewer clients, since they will also have to cut back. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? I’m terribly worried. The state promises there won’t be a jump in prices and that joining the eurozone won’t negatively affect the economy. But over the past two years the cost of living has risen significantly, and I don’t see that trend reversing. For example, in the last three years real estate prices have doubled. There isn’t a single person who isn’t complaining about rising costs. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? There is nothing they can do at this point. Politicians do not really protect Bulgaria’s interests on this matter. The issue is not only about joining the eurozone but about protecting our national interests. I just want them to have people’s well-being at heart. Maybe we need to hit rock bottom to finally see meaningful change. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? Not really. That’s up to us, not to Europe. I just want Bulgarian politicians to finally start creating policies for the sake of society, not just enriching themselves, to act in a way that would improve life for everyone. Advertisement KATARINA NIKOLIC, 49, AND METODI METODIEV, 53 Business partners at a ‘gelateria’ in Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? Metodi: For a small business like ours, I don’t think it will make much difference, as long as the transition to the new currency is managed smoothly. I can only see a positive impact on the economy if things are done right. I’m a bit saddened to say farewell to the Bulgarian lev — it’s an old currency with its own history — but times are changing, and this is a natural step for an EU member. Katarina: I have lived in Italy which adopted the euro a long time ago. Based on my experience there, I don’t expect any worrying developments related to price increases or inflation. On the contrary, joining the eurozone in January can only be interpreted as a sign of trust from the European Commission and could bring more economic stability to Bulgaria. I also think it will increase transparency, improve financial supervision, and provide access to cheaper loans. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? Metodi:  I don’t think there will be any difference for our business whether we’re paying in euros or in leva. We’ve been an EU member state for a while now and we’re used to working with both local and international suppliers. It will just take some getting used to switching to one currency for another. But we are already veterans — Bulgarian businesses are very adaptive — from dealing with renominations and all sorts of economic reforms. I’m just concerned that it might be challenging for some elderly people to adapt to the new currency and they might need some support and more information. Katarina: For many people, it will take time to get used to seeing a new currency, but they will adapt. For me, it’s nothing new. Since I lived in Italy, where the euro is used, I automatically convert to euros whenever Metodi and I discuss business. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? Metodi: The decision has already been taken, so let’s make the best of it and ensure a smooth transition. I haven’t exchanged money when traveling in at least 10 years. I just use my bank card to pay or withdraw cash if I need any. Katarina: I remember that some people in Italy also predicted disaster when the euro was introduced, and many were nostalgic about the lira. But years later, Italy is still a stable economy. I think our international partners will look at us differently once we are part of the eurozone. Advertisement What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? Metodi: I think the authorities are already taking measures to make sure prices don’t rise and that businesses don’t round conversions upward unfairly. For example, we may have to slightly increase the price of our ice cream in January. I feel a bit awkward about it because I don’t want people to say, “Look, they’re taking advantage of the euro adoption to raise prices.” But honestly, we haven’t adjusted our prices since we opened three years ago. I’m actually very impressed by how quickly and smoothly small businesses and market sellers have adopted double pricing [marking prices in lev and euros]. I know how much work that requires, especially if you’re a small business owner. Katarina: It’s crucial that the state doesn’t choke small businesses with excessive demands but instead supports them. I believe that helping small businesses grow should be a key focus of the government, not just supervising the currency swap. My hope is that the euro will help the Bulgarian economy thrive. I love Bulgaria and want to see it flourish. I’m a bit more optimistic than Metodi, I think the best is yet to come. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? Metodi: I think so. Despite some criticism, good things are happening in the country, no matter who is in power. We need this closeness to truly feel part of Europe. Katarina: The euro is a financial and economic instrument. Adopting it won’t change national cultural identity, Bulgarians will keep their culture. I’m a true believer in Europe, and I think it’s more important than ever to have a united continent. As an Italian and Serbian citizen, I really appreciate that borders are open and that our children can choose where to study and work. In fact, our gelateria is a great example of international collaboration: we have people from several different countries in the team.

EUROPE’S CENTER ISN’T HOLDING ANYMORE Despite recent election wins for moderates in the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K., the far right is stronger than ever. By TIM ROSS in Jaywick, England Illustration by Merijn Hos for POLITICO In recent elections, voters in Europe have given hope to embattled centrist politicians across the Western world.   Donald Trump may have romped back into the White House, but the international movement of MAGA-aligned populists has run into trouble across the Atlantic. At elections in the U.K., France, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania — and in a sprawling vote across 27 EU countries for the European Parliament — mainstream candidates defeated populist hardliners and far-right nationalists.  “There remains a majority in the center for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, after the EU Parliament elections last year. “In other words, the center is holding.”   Sixteen months later, that hold is looking anything but secure.    Hard-right and far-right politicians are now leading the polls in France, the U.K. and even Germany. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval rating is a dire 21 percent. His French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, is even lower, at 11 percent — and the mood is so grim that this fall’s spectacular theft at the Louvre is being treated by some as a giant metaphor for a country unable to manage its challenges.   Even von der Leyen’s own EU conservatives now rely on the votes of far right lawmakers to get her plans approved in Brussels. One outraged centrist likened the shift to those German politicians who enabled Adolf Hitler to take power. Populists at the extremes, meanwhile, cast themselves as the obvious alternative for populations that want change. And now they can expect Trump to help: In a brutal rupture of transatlantic norms, a new U.S. National Security Strategy aims to use American diplomacy to cultivate “resistance” to political correctness in Europe — especially on migration — and to support parties it describes as “patriotic.” Trump himself told POLITICO he would endorse candidates he believed would move Europe in the right direction. On that rightward trajectory, in the next four years the political map of the West faces its most dramatic upheaval since the Cold War. The implications for geopolitics, from trade to defense, could be profound.   “What [Europeans are] getting from Trump is the strategy of maximum polarization that hollows out the center,” said Will Marshall from the Progressive Policy Institute, the centrist American think tank that backed Bill Clinton in the 1990s. “The old established parties of left and right that dominated the post war era have gotten weaker,” he said. “The nationalist or populist right’s revolt is against them.”  Nowhere is this recent transformation more dramatic than in the U.K.   As the sun sinks toward the horizon over a calm sea one Thursday evening in November, half a dozen regulars huddle around the bar in the Never Say Die pub, a few yards from the beach at Jaywick Sands, on the east coast of England.   Built in the 1930s as a resort 70 miles from London, Jaywick is now the most deprived neighborhood in the country. The area had such a bad image that in 2018 a U.S. MAGA ad used a photograph of a dilapidated Jaywick street to warn of the apocalyptic future facing America if Trump’s candidates were not elected.   Jaywick was named England’s most deprived neighbourhood in October — for the fourth time since 2010. | Tolga Akmen/EPA It is here among the pebbledashed bungalows and England flags hanging limp from lampposts that a new political force — Nigel Farage’s rightwing Reform UK — has built its heartland.   At the bar, Dave Laurence, 82, says he doesn’t vote, as a rule, but made an exception for Farage, who was elected to represent the area last year. “I quite like him. He’s doing the best he can,” Laurence says as he sips his pint of lager, with ’80s pop hits playing in the background. “I’ll vote for him again.”  Laurence freely describes himself as “racist” and says he would never vote for a Black person, such as the center-right Conservative Party’s leader Kemi Badenoch. What troubles him most, he says, is the number of immigrants who have arrived in the U.K. during his lifetime, especially those crossing the Channel in small boats. Soon, Laurence fears, the country will be “full of Muslims and they’ll fucking rebel against us.”  With its anti-establishment, immigration-fighting agenda, Farage’s Reform UK offers voters a program tightly in tune with far-right parties that have gained ground across the West. According to opinion polls, Farage now has a real chance of becoming the U.K.’s next prime minister if the vote were held today. (A general election is not due until 2029).   It’s startling to note that as recently as July 2024, Starmer’s Labour Party won a historic landslide and some of his triumphant election aides traveled to the U.S. to advise Democrats on strategy. Today, Starmer is derided as “First Gear Keir” as he fights off leadership rivals rumored to be trying to oust him. And Reform isn’t the only force remaking British party politics. To the left of Labour, the Greens have also made recent gains in the polls under a new leader calling himself an “eco-populist.”   Farage’s stunning rise from the sidelines to the front of a political revolution carries lessons well beyond Britain’s borders. Europeans raised in the old school of mainstream politics fear that the traditional centerground — their home turf — will not hold.   ‘DURABLY UNSTABLE’   Macron, for his part, tried to counter the rise of the hard right by calling a snap election for the French National Assembly last year. The gamble backfired, delivering a hung parliament that has been unable to agree on key economic policies ever since. Macron is now historically unpopular.   French lawmakers’ clashes over the budget have toppled three of Macron’s picks as prime minister since the summer of 2024. A backlash against his plan to raise the pension age has forced ratings agencies to mull a damaging downgrade. Macron, who himself became president by launching a new centrist movement to rival the political establishment, now has no traditional party machinery to help bolster his position. “He’ll leave a political landscape that is perhaps durably unstable. It’s unforgivable,” said Alain Minc, an influential adviser and former mentor to the French president.  The chaos gives populists their chance. The main politicians making any running in conversations about the next presidential election belong to the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen and its youthful party president Jordan Bardella, who are riding high in the polls at 34 percent.   In Germany, too, the center ground is steadily eroding.   Though Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won a snap election in February, his ideologically uneasy coalition, which consists of his own conservative bloc and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), holds one of the slimmest parliamentary majorities for a government since 1945, with just 52 percent of seats. That leaves the Merz coalition vulnerable to small defections within the ranks and makes it hard for him to achieve anything ambitious in government. The far-left Die Linke party and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) both surged at the last election, too, with AfD winning the best result in a national election for any far-right party since World War II.  Merz’s attempt to defang the AfD by moving his conservatives sharply to the right on the issue of migration seems to have backfired. The AfD has only continued its rise, surpassing Merz’s conservatives in many polls.   The rise of the far-right is a cultural shock to many centrist Germans, given the country’s deeply entrenched desire to avoid repeating its past. “For a long time in Germany we thought with our history, and the way we teach in our schools, we would be a bit more immune to that,” one concerned German official said. “It turned out we are not.”   Even in the Netherlands, where centrist Rob Jetten won a famous but narrow victory over the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders in October, there are reasons for mainstream politicians to worry. Wilders’ Freedom Party is still one of the biggest forces in the land, winning the same number of seats as Jetten’s D66. He could well return next time, just as Trump did in the U.S.   WHERE DID ALL THE VOTERS GO?   According to polling firm Ipsos, a large proportion of voters in many Western democracies now have little faith in the political process. While they still believe in democratic values, they are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working for them.   A large survey questioning around 10,000 voters across nine countries found 45 percent were dissatisfied, fueling support for the extremes. Among voters on the far left (57 percent) and the far right (54 percent), levels of dissatisfaction were highest of all.   The countries with the highest rates of dissatisfaction in the Ipsos study were France and the Netherlands, where political upheaval has taken its toll on faith in the system.   Anti-riot police officers stand next to a demonstration called by far-right activist Els Rechts against the Netherlands’ current asylum policy, in September in The Hague. | Josh Walet/ANP via Getty Images Alongside the coronavirus pandemic and the aftermath of lockdowns, the biggest drivers of dissatisfaction were the cost of living, immigration and crime, according to Gideon Skinner from Ipsos. Trust in politics fell in the 90s and took another hit in the late 2000s at the time of the financial crash, he said.   “There may be specific things that have made it worse over the last couple of years but it’s also a long-term condition,” Skinner told POLITICO. “It’s something we do need to worry about and there is not a silver bullet that can fix it all.”  Perhaps the greatest problem for incumbent centrists is that in most cases their economies are so moribund that they lack the fiscal firepower to spend money addressing the issues disillusioned voters care about most — like high living costs, ailing public services and migration.  THE INEQUALITY EMERGENCY   The financial crisis of 2008 and the coronavirus lockdowns of 2020-21 left many governments strapped for cash. In the U.K., for example, the economy was 16 percent smaller than it should have been a decade after the 2008 crash if prior growth trends had continued, according to Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London.   “Crucially, the impact of the financial crisis, like the impact of so much else in our politics, was massively unequal,” Menon said. “Prosperous places with high productivity, with well-educated workforces suffered far, far less than poorer parts of the country.”   Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz submitted a study to the G20 in November warning that the world was facing an “inequality emergency.” Fueled by war, pandemic and trade disruptions, the crisis risks preparing the ground for more authoritarian leaders, his report said.   In many Western countries, the centerground is more than just a metaphor. It is in capital cities like London, Paris and Washington that power and money accumulate and the economic and political elites seek to maintain their grip on the status quo.   The further you travel from these centers out to areas in decline, the more likely you are to find support for radical politics.   As Menon notes, Britain’s 2016 revolution — the referendum vote to leave the European Union after almost half a century of membership — can be mapped onto the culinary geography of the country.   “Pret a Manger” is a smart national chain of sandwich and coffee shops, catering for hungry commuters and office workers in wealthy, successful British cities. “Places that had a Pret voted Remain,” Menon said. Parts of the U.K. where median wages were lower were disproportionately likely to vote to leave the EU.   IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION   After the Brexit vote in 2016, immigration slid from the top of the priority list for British voters and Farage himself took a step back. Both have now returned, as Farage rides a wave of headlines about irregular migrants landing in small boats from France.   From January to May this year, there were a record 14,800 small boat crossings, 42 percent more than in the same period in the previous year, according to Oxford University’s Migration Observatory.   For Laurence, in the Never Say Die pub, the small boats represent the biggest issue of all. “What’s going to happen in 10 years’ time? What’s going to happen in 20 years’ time when the boat people are still coming over?” he asked.   A decade ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the doors to hundreds of thousands of refugees arriving into Europe from Syria, as well as Afghanistan and Iraq. The AfD surged in the months that followed, permanently changing German politics. At February’s election, the AfD won a record 21 percent of the vote, finishing in second place behind Merz’s conservative bloc.  “The fundamental failure that is common to the whole [centrist] transatlantic community is on immigration,” said Marshall from the Progressive Policy Institute. “All of the far-right movements have made it their top issue.”   It is the perceived threat that waves of migration pose to traditional national cultures which drives much of the support for the far right. Trump’s White House is now primed to join the European nationalists’ fight. According to a new U.S. National Security Strategy document released in December, Europe is facing “civilisational erasure” from unrestricted immigration, as well as falling birthrates. The analysis draws on the so-called great replacement theory, a racist conspiracy theory. Free speech — in the MAGA definition, at least — is another casualty of conventional centrist rule in Europe, as political correctness veers into “censorship,” the U.S. document said. Protesters demostrate under the motto “Loud against Nazis” in early February in Berlin. After years of decline, The Left party  pulled off a stunning revival in the general election later that month. | John MacDougall via AFP/Getty Images In his interview with POLITICO earlier this week, Trump aligned himself fully with the strategy paper. European nations are “decaying” and their “weak” leaders can expect to be challenged by rivals with American support, he said. “I’d endorse,” he added. In Brussels, the double-punch of the president’s interview and the strategy document left diplomats and officials feeling bruised and alarmed all over again, after a period in which they allowed themselves to hope that the transatlantic alliance wasn’t dying. One EU diplomat was blunt in assessing Trump’s new method: “It’s autocracy.” THE STOLEN JEWELS  Sometimes, it takes a random news event — ostensibly unconnected to politics — to crystalize the national mood. In Paris, the theft of France’s priceless crown jewels from the Louvre provided just such an opportunity, morphing into an indictment of an establishment that can’t get the job done, even when the job simply involves thoroughly locking the windows at the world’s most famous museum. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella called the incident a “humiliation” before asking: “How far will the breakdown of the state go?”   In Britain, just a month after Starmer’s victory last year, riots broke out across the country, fueled by far-right extremists. The catalyst was the murder of three young girls aged 6, 7 and 9, in Southport, northwest England, by a Black teenager wrongly identified at the time on social media — in posts amplified by the far-right — as a Muslim.   At the time, Farage suggested the police were withholding the truth about the suspect, earning him the fury of mainstream politicians. While stressing he did not support violence, Farage railed against what he called “two-tier policing,” a phrase popular among far-right commentators who claim police treat right-wing protesters more harshly than those on the left.  It’s an opinion that resonates in Jaywick. Chennelle Rutland, 56, is walking her two dogs along the beachfront, admiring the view as the sun sets, flaring the sky orange, then purple. The colors catch the surface of the flat sea. “It’s one rule for one and one rule for the other,” she says. “The whites have got to shut up because if you do say anything, you’re ‘racist’ and ‘far right.’”   Far-right activist Tommy Robinson invited his supporters to attend the “Unite The Kingdom” rally in September. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images It would be wrong to characterise residents of Jaywick as simply ignorant or full of rage. Many who spoke to POLITICO there were cheerful, happy with their community and up to speed with the news. But, just as they’d soured on their country’s centrist establishment, they were also tuning out its favored news sources.   In Jaywick, some of Farage’s voters prefer GB News, Britain’s answer to Fox News, which launched in 2021, or learn about current affairs from YouTube and other social media. The BBC — for decades the mainstay of the British media landscape — has lost a portion of its audience here. Right-wing commentators and politicians attack it as biased. Trump has lately joined in, threatening to sue over a BBC edit that he said deceptively made it look as if he was explicitly inciting violence. The BBC’s director general and head of news both resigned. In the process, another piece of Britain’s onetime centerground was giving way.   WHAT NEXT?   There are reasons for centrists to hope. In Rome, Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right Brothers of Italy party has become less extreme in power, and the worst fears of moderates about a group with its historic roots in neo-fascism have not come to pass. She remains popular, and while pushing a culture war at home, she has avoided the wrath of the EU leadership and kept Trump onside.   Populists and nationalists don’t always win. Trump lost in 2020. In the Netherlands, Wilders lost in October this year, though only by a whisker. Romania’s Nicușor Dan won the presidency as a centrist in May, but again only narrowly defeating his far-right opponent.   Structural obstacles may also slow the radicals’ progress. The U.K.’s first-past-the-post voting system makes it hard for new parties to do well. The two-round French system has so far stopped Le Pen’s National Rally from gaining power as centrists combine to back moderates. In Germany, a similar “firewall” exists under which center parties keep the far-right out.   After the Brexit vote in 2016, immigration slid from the top of the priority list for British voters and Farage himself took a step back. Both have now returned. | Tolga Akmen/EPA Even as he enjoys a sustained lead in the polls and wins local elections in the U.K., Farage has not convinced voters that Reform would do a good job. Even some of his supporters worry he will be out of his depth in government.   The problem, for the centrists who are in power, is that a lot of voters seem to think they, too, are out of their depth. And, whether that involves dealing with migration, combatting inequality, or just boosting the security around the Mona Lisa, it’s a reputation they’ll need to fix in order to survive — no easy task given the intractability of the challenges facing the rich world.  The next year will see more elections at which the centrists — and their populists rivals — will be tested. In Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long seen as the far-right bad boy of EU politics, is fighting to keep power at an election expected in April. There are regional votes in Germany where the AfD is on track to prosper. France may require yet another snap election to end its political paralysis. Trump’s diplomats and officials will be ready to intervene. Farage’s party, too, will be on the ballot in 2026: It is expected to make gains in Wales, Scotland and local votes elsewhere next spring. After that, his sights will be on the U.K. general election expected in 2029, by which time European politics may look very different.   “Of course I know Mr. Orban and of course I know Giorgia Meloni, of course I know these people,” Farage told POLITICO at a recent Reform rally. “I suspect that after the next election cycle in Europe there will be even more that I know.” Natalie Fertig in Washington, Clea Caulcutt in Paris and James Angelos in Berlin contributed to this report.  

Prime minister’s questions: a shouty, jeery, very occasionally useful advert for British politics. Here’s what you need to know from the latest session in POLITICO’s weekly run-through. What they sparred about: Labour’s internal woes. Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch couldn’t resist using the penultimate PMQs of 2025 to land a punch by bringing up Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future, as rumors about his political survival continue to swirl. They’re behind you! Badenoch asked the PM why Labour MPs were “describing him as a caretaker prime minister.” That framing wasn’t helped by the influential think tank Labour Together canvassing party members about possible leadership runners and riders. Starmer brushed off that initial attack by claiming his own MPs were “very proud” of the budget and focused on “the single most important issue,” i.e., the cost of living. State of secretaries: The Tory leader said Starmer “has lost control of his party” and Cabinet ministers were “so busy trying to replace him that they have taken their eyes off the ball.” She then worked through contenders often mooted — probing the PM on their records in respective Whitehall departments. Igniting the fires: Badenoch said Energy Secretary Ed Miliband was trying to “recycle himself as leader” despite Starmer’s predecessor but one insisting he didn’t want to become Labour leader again. Then followed a spat about energy bills, though Starmer highlighted Badenoch’s own difficulty, with plenty of ex-Tories jumping ship to Reform UK. The “real question is who’s next,” he joked. Playground banter: “He could power the national grid on all of that hot air,” the Tory leader cried, turning her attention to Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and teacher numbers (Labour promised 6,500). The PM tore into the Conservatives’ record on education, saying “they should be utterly ashamed.” Cop out: “Wrong,” Badenoch dismissively replied, having another go on police numbers (managed, of course, by Home Secretary and darling of the Labour right, Shabana Mahmood). The PM said there would be “3,000 more by the end of March” and Badenoch should “get up and say sorry” for their time in government. “Wrong,” the Tory leader mused again. More in anger than in sorrow: Despite the rapid range of policies, Badenoch tied her criticism together by stating “everything is getting worse” and, quoting the famous Saatchi & Saatchi poster, “Labour isn’t working.” Starmer wasn’t going down without a fight, calling the Tory leader “living proof you can say whatever you like when nobody is listening to anything you have to say.” So much for the season of goodwill … Helpful backbench intervention of the week: York Central MP Rachael Maskell deplored the Tories’ attitude to child poverty and highlighted Labour’s work managing this issue. The PM, breathing a sigh of relief to bag a friendly question from the often Labour rebel, plugged the government’s work with a dig at Badenoch for good measure. Oh, and: Dartford MP Jim Dickson ripped into Reform UK’s governance of Kent County Council, claiming their so-called DOGE unit actually stood for “deluded, overconfident, gormless and embarrassing.” Starmer was more than happy, listing their eventful spell across local government since May and slamming comments by Reform politicians. Totally unscientific scores on the doors: Starmer 5/10. Badenoch 7/10. The endless internal Labour rows about Starmer’s future and the party’s languishing popularity gave the Tory leader a plethora of material. Though not sticking to one topic, Badenoch used possible contenders as a springboard to flag the government’s policy challengers. The PM rightly raised the Tories’ own problems with Reform UK and terrible polling numbers, but struggled to brush off the narrative that his time in No 10 is numbered.

This article is also available in French and German. President Donald Trump denounced Europe as a “decaying” group of nations led by “weak” people in an interview with POLITICO, belittling the traditional U.S. allies for failing to control migration and end the Russia-Ukraine war, and signaling that he would endorse European political candidates aligned with his own vision for the continent. The broadside attack against European political leadership represents the president’s most virulent denunciation to date of these Western democracies, threatening a decisive rupture with countries like France and Germany that already have deeply strained relations with the Trump administration. “I think they’re weak,” Trump said of Europe’s political leaders. “But I also think that they want to be so politically correct.” “I think they don’t know what to do,” he added. “Europe doesn’t know what to do.” Trump matched that blunt, even abrasive, candor on European affairs with a sequence of stark pronouncements on matters closer to home: He said he would make support for immediately slashing interest rates a litmus test in his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair. He said he could extend anti-drug military operations to Mexico and Colombia. And Trump urged conservative Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, both in their 70s, to stay on the bench. Trump’s comments about Europe come at an especially precarious moment in the negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, as European leaders express intensifying alarm that Trump may abandon Ukraine and its continental allies to Russian aggression. In the interview, Trump offered no reassurance to Europeans on that score and declared that Russia was obviously in a stronger position than Ukraine. Trump spoke on Monday at the White House with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns for a special episode of The Conversation. POLITICO on Tuesday named Trump the most influential figure shaping European politics in the year ahead, a recognition previously conferred on leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Trump’s confident commentary on Europe presented a sharp contrast with some of his remarks on domestic matters in the interview. The president and his party have faced a series of electoral setbacks and spiraling dysfunction in Congress this fall as voters rebel against the high cost of living. Trump has struggled to deliver a message to meet that new reality: In the interview, he graded the economy’s performance as an “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus,” insisted that prices were falling across the board and declined to outline a specific remedy for imminent spikes in health care premiums. Even amid growing turbulence at home, however, Trump remains a singular figure in international politics. In recent days, European capitals have shuddered with dismay at the release of Trump’s new National Security Strategy document, a highly provocative manifesto that cast the Trump administration in opposition to the mainstream European political establishment and vowed to “cultivate resistance” to the European status quo on immigration and other politically volatile issues. In the interview, Trump amplified that worldview, describing cities like London and Paris as creaking under the burden of migration from the Middle East and Africa. Without a change in border policy, Trump said, some European states “will not be viable countries any longer.” Using highly incendiary language, Trump singled out London’s left-wing mayor, Sadiq Khan, the son of Pakistani immigrants and the city’s first Muslim mayor, as a “disaster” and blamed his election on immigration: “He gets elected because so many people have come in. They vote for him now.” The president of the European Council, António Costa, on Monday rebuked the Trump administration for the national security document and urged the White House to respect Europe’s sovereignty and right to self-government. “Allies do not threaten to interfere in the democratic life or the domestic political choices of these allies,” Costa said. “They respect them.” Speaking with POLITICO, Trump flouted those boundaries and said he would continue to back favorite candidates in European elections, even at the risk of offending local sensitivities. “I’d endorse,” Trump said. “I’ve endorsed people, but I’ve endorsed people that a lot of Europeans don’t like. I’ve endorsed Viktor Orbán,” the hard-right Hungarian prime minister Trump said he admired for his border-control policies. It was the Russia-Ukraine war, rather than electoral politics, that Trump appeared most immediately focused on. He claimed on Monday that he had offered a new draft of a peace plan that some Ukrainian officials liked, but that Zelenskyy himself had not reviewed yet. “It would be nice if he would read it,” Trump said. Zelenskyy met with leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Monday and continued to voice opposition to ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of a peace deal. The president said he put little stock in the role of European leaders in seeking to end the war: “They talk, but they don’t produce, and the war just keeps going on and on.” In a fresh challenge to Zelenskyy, who appears politically weakened in Ukraine due to a corruption scandal, Trump renewed his call for Ukraine to hold new elections. “They haven’t had an election in a long time,” Trump said. “You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it’s not a democracy anymore.” Latin America Even as he said he is pursuing a peace agenda overseas, Trump said he might further broaden the military actions his administration has taken in Latin America against targets it claims are linked to the drug trade. Trump has deployed a massive military force to the Caribbean to strike alleged drug runners and pressure the authoritarian regime in Venezuela. In the interview, Trump repeatedly declined to rule out putting American troops into Venezuela as part of an effort to bring down the strongman ruler Nicolás Maduro, whom Trump blames for exporting drugs and dangerous people to the United States. Some leaders on the American right have warned Trump that a ground invasion of Venezuela would be a red line for conservatives who voted for him in part to end foreign wars. “I don’t want to rule in or out. I don’t talk about it,” Trump said of deploying ground troops, adding: “I don’t want to talk to you about military strategy.” But the president said he would consider using force against targets in other countries where the drug trade is highly active, including Mexico and Colombia. “Sure, I would,” he said. Trump scarcely defended some of his most controversial actions in Latin America, including his recent pardon of the former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was serving a decades-long sentence in an American prison after being convicted in a massive drug-trafficking conspiracy. Trump said he knew “very little” about Hernández except that he’d been told by “very good people” that the former Honduran president had been targeted unfairly by political opponents. “They asked me to do it and I said, I’ll do it,” Trump acknowledged, without naming the people who sought the pardon for Hernández. HEALTH CARE AND THE ECONOMY Asked to grade the economy under his watch, Trump rated it an overwhelming success: “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” To the extent voters are frustrated about prices, Trump said the Biden administration was at fault: “I inherited a mess. I inherited a total mess.” The president is facing a forbidding political environment because of voters’ struggles with affordability, with about half of voters overall and nearly 4 in 10 people who voted for Trump in 2024 saying in a recent POLITICO Poll that the cost of living was as bad as it had ever been in their lives. Trump said he could make additional changes to tariff policy to help lower the price of some goods, as he has already done, but he insisted overall that the trend on costs was in the right direction. “Prices are all coming down,” Trump said, adding: “Everything is coming down.” Prices rose 3 percent over the 12 months ending in September, according to the most recent Consumer Price Index. Trump’s political struggles are shadowing his upcoming decision on a nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, a post that will shape the economic environment for the balance of Trump’s term. Asked if he was making support for slashing interest rates a litmus test for his Fed nominee, Trump answered with a quick “yes.” The most immediate threat to the cost of living for many Americans is the expiration of enhanced health insurance subsidies for Obamacare exchange plans that were enacted by Democrats under former President Joe Biden and are set to expire at the end of this year. Health insurance premiums are expected to spike in 2026, and medical charities are already experiencing a marked rise in requests for aid even before subsidies expire. Trump has been largely absent from health policy negotiations in Washington, while Democrats and some Republicans supportive of a compromise on subsidies have run into a wall of opposition on the right. Reaching a deal — and marshaling support from enough Republicans to pass it — would likely require direct intervention from the president. Yet asked if he would support a temporary extension of Obamacare subsidies while he works out a large-scale plan with lawmakers, Trump was noncommittal. “I don’t know. I’m gonna have to see,” he said, pivoting to an attack on Democrats for being too generous with insurance companies in the Affordable Care Act. A cloud of uncertainty surrounds the administration’s intentions on health care policy. In late November, the White House planned to unveil a proposal to temporarily extend Obamacare subsidies only to postpone the announcement. Trump has promised on and off for years to unveil a comprehensive plan for replacing Obamacare but has never done so. That did not change in the interview. “I want to give the people better health insurance for less money,” Trump said. “The people will get the money, and they’re going to buy the health insurance that they want.” Reminded that Americans are currently buying holiday gifts and drawing up household budgets for 2026 amid uncertainty around premiums, Trump shot back: “Don’t be dramatic. Don’t be dramatic.” SUPREME COURT Large swaths of Trump’s domestic agenda currently sit before the Supreme Court, with a generally sympathetic 6-3 conservative majority that has nevertheless thrown up some obstacles to the most brazen versions of executive power Trump has attempted to wield. Trump spoke with POLITICO several days after the high court agreed to hear arguments concerning the constitutionality of birthright citizenship, the automatic conferral of citizenship on people born in the United States. Trump is attempting to roll back that right and said it would be “devastating” if the court blocked him from doing so. If the court rules in his favor, Trump said, he had not yet considered whether he would try to strip citizenship from people who were born as citizens under current law. Trump broke with some members of his party who have been hoping that the court’s two oldest conservatives, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, might consider retiring before the midterm elections so that Trump can nominate another conservative while Republicans are guaranteed to control the Senate. The president said he’d rather Alito, 75, and Thomas, 77, the court’s most reliable conservative jurists, remain in place: “I hope they stay,” he said, “’cause I think they’re fantastic.”

PARIS — A generational reckoning is brewing in Paris and Berlin, where a new wave of younger politicians is putting pensioners on notice: The system is buckling and can’t hold unless retirees do more to help fix it. Culture, language and local politics may add a distinct flavor to each debate, but the European Union’s two biggest economies are dealing with the same issue — how to pay for the soaring costs associated with the retirement of baby boomers.   The problem is both demographic and financial. Declining birthrates mean there aren’t enough young people to offset the boom in retirees at a time when economic growth is sluggish, salaries have stagnated and purchasing power isn’t evolving at the same rate as it did for previous generations. And with the cost of real estate skyrocketing, young people feel that buying a home and other opportunities afforded to their parents’ generation are increasingly out of reach.  With budgets already strapped thanks to priorities such as rearmament in the face of Russian aggression, reindustrialization and the green transition, a growing number of young politicians from the center to the right of the political spectrum are calling out retirees for not contributing to the solution.  Some lawmakers in Germany, like 34-year-old Johannes Winkel, are calling for greater “intergenerational justice.” The 38-year-old French MP Guillaume Kasbarian is going a step further, arguing France should rethink its pay-as-you-go system — similar to Germany’s — in which current workers fund retirees’ pensions through taxes. The 38-year-old French MP Guillaume Kasbarian is going a step further, arguing France should rethink its pay-as-you-go system — similar to Germany’s — in which current workers fund retirees’ pensions through taxes. | Amaury Cornu/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images Targeting pensioners is a politically dangerous proposition. They are a reliable voting constituency, heading to the ballot box in greater numbers than younger generations — and they lean centrist. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc got an estimated 43 percent of the vote among people aged 70 and above in February’s general election, and older voters helped Macron secure reelection in 2022.  French Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin told lawmakers last month that she didn’t “want to trigger a generation war” over the government’s fiscal plans for next year.  But she — and her counterparts across the Rhine — may not have a choice. ‘FAIR TO ALL GENERATIONS’ Lawmakers in France are sparring this week over a highly contentious plan to freeze inflation adjustments on pension payments next year, part of a wide-ranging effort to trim billions of euros from the budget and get the deficit below 5 percent of gross domestic product. The debate in France echoes similar conversations in Germany, where Winkel is among a group of young conservatives who rebelled against a pension reform package put forth by Merz’s government, saying current benefits for older people are too generous and asking for a plan that is “fair to all generations.”   A group of leading economists argued in an op-ed in German newspaper Handelsblatt that Merz’s proposed pension package would be “to the detriment of the younger generation, who are already under increasing financial pressure.”   The leaders of Germany’s coalition set out to resolve the dispute last week, with Merz vowing to take on a second, more far-reaching set of pension reforms as early as next year.   Winkel is among a group of young conservatives who rebelled against a pension reform package put forth by Merz’s government, saying current benefits for older people are too generous and asking for a plan that is “fair to all generations.”  | Photo by Nadja Wohlleben/Getty Images But it’s unclear whether that proposal has appeased all young conservatives. In a letter this week, the group said its 18 lawmakers would decide individually how they will vote on the immediate pension package, which is set to go for a vote on Friday. Every vote will matter, as Merz’s fragile coalition has a majority of only 12 parliamentarians. On Tuesday, Merz’s center-right bloc held a test vote to see if there was enough conservative support to pass the pension reform package. The results of the internal vote were unclear. Opinion surveys in Germany and France show that much of the public favors protecting existing pension systems and benefits. Leftist parties in both countries have also strongly pushed back against measures that would freeze or lower pension benefits, arguing that the public pension system is a core element of social cohesion. But intergenerational cracks are emerging.  “Measures on pensions show a generational cleavage: They are massively rejected by pensioners but supported by nearly one out of two in the younger generation (18-24),” according to an analysis from French pollster Elabe published in October.  In another poll from Odoxa, a small majority of working-age people in France agreed that current pensioners are “better off because they were able to leave earlier than those still working.” KEY DIFFERENCES There are key differences between France and Germany, however. Pension benefits in France are far more generous than in Germany, and help keep the poverty rate among people aged 65 and above lower than that of the general population.  The opposite is true in Germany, where the over-65 population is worse off than those younger than 65, in part because public pensions became comparatively lower after pension reforms passed in the 2000s.  Ultimately, however, demographics and economics vary so much from one generation to another that it’s almost impossible to make a pension system “fair,” according to Arnaud Lechevalier, an economist at the Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University. The idea that each generation can have the same return on investment on their working-aged contributions is, in Lechevalier’s words, “a deeply stupid idea.”

LONDON — Keir Starmer loves to play the climate leader. But only when his political advisers (and the powerful Chancellor Rachel Reeves) tell him he’s allowed. The green-minded U.K. prime minister flies into the COP30 summit in Brazil Thursday, armed with undeniable climate credentials. His government is pressing ahead with a 2050 net zero target, even as right-wing political rivals at home run away from it. It is about to hand 20-year contracts, laden with financial guarantees, to companies developing offshore wind farms. Just by attending COP, Starmer has shown he’s willing to publicly back the faltering global climate cause, despite furious attacks on the green agenda by close ally Donald Trump. But his claim to global leadership comes with a catch. Action on climate change is also tied to the political agenda back home, where Starmer and Reeves insist they are focused on bringing down bills and driving economic growth. As the prime minister flies in and out of Brazil this week, those key themes dominate. In a speech on Tuesday, Reeves pledged to “bear down” on the national debt and focus on the cost of living — even it requires “hard choices” elsewhere. Climate is no exception. SHY GREEN It was Starmer’s “personal decision” to go to Brazil, U.K. Climate Minister Katie White told a pre-COP event in London on Tuesday. It was reported in the run-up to the summit that he would skip Brazil, amid concerns among his top political aides about the optics of a jaunt to South America to talk climate while voters — disillusioned with Starmer and Labour — struggle with the cost of living at home and brace for tax rises expected in the budget. In the end, Starmer opted to go. But the absence of a full traveling press delegation, the norm at previous COPs, means his visit will generate less media coverage. (Government officials insisted the decision not to take a full press pack was purely logistical.) Starmer, while not an expert, is instinctively supportive of climate action, said one government official. But not so much so, countered a Labour MP, that he has “his own ideas about things.” “He wants to do the right thing, but would be steered as to whether that’s talking about forests or clean power or whatever. I suspect [No 10 Chief of Staff] Morgan McSweeney didn’t want him to go,” said the MP, granted anonymity to give a frank assessment of their leader. JOBS AT HOME GOOD, TREES ABROAD BAD The COP30 leaders’ event is taking place in Belém, the Amazon port city near the edge of the world’s greatest rainforest. But in a symbol of how domestic messaging trumps all else, Starmer will use that global platform to talk about a somewhat less exotic port: Great Yarmouth in East Anglia. It’s one of three U.K. locations — along with Greater Manchester and Belfast — where new, private sector clean energy deals are being announced, securing a modest 600 jobs. The COP30 leaders’ event is taking place in Belém, the Amazon port city near the edge of the world’s greatest rainforest. | Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images If COP’s Brazilian hosts were hoping for a grander global climate vision, they are about to be disappointed. The U.K. won’t be stumping up any taxpayer money for a global fund to support poorer countries to protect their tropical rainforests — key carbon sinks that, left standing, can help slow the rate of climate change. The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) is supposed to be the centerpiece of the summit for Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but Lula has not been able to rely on even his close, left-wing ally Starmer — with whom he likes to chat about football — to weigh in with a financial contribution to match Brazil’s $1 billion. The U.K. played a role in establishing the concept of the TFFF. An energy department spokesperson said the government remained “incredibly supportive” of the scheme. But, with Reeves warning this week that her budget would deal with “the world as we find it, not the world as I would wish it to be,” her Treasury officials won a Whitehall battle over the U.K.’s financial backing for the scheme. Ministers say only that they will try to drum up private sector investment. ‘KEIR, SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE’ The decision neatly captures the Starmer approach to climate action. If it suits the domestic economic and political agenda, great. If not then, then there is no guarantee of No. 10 and Treasury support. Taxpayer-funded international aid spending, a vital part of the U.K.’s global climate offer, has been slashed. At the same time, despite stretching emissions goals, one of the world’s busiest airports, Heathrow, will be expanded — because of its potential benefits for growth. Ministers are looking at watering down a pledge to ban new licences for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea, amid a sclerotic economy. The Treasury is considering easing the tax burden on fossil fuel companies. The bipolar approach risks bringing Starmer and Reeves into conflict with the U.K.’s energetic, committedly green Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who will lead the country’s delegation to the COP30 conference and the formal United Nations negotiation. “On all of this, there is Ed on one side, Rachel on the other, and Keir somewhere in the middle,” said the government official. Starmer largely subcontracts his climate and energy policy to Miliband, said an industry figure who frequently interacts with government. Many MPs wish Starmer would act more like Miliband and embrace his green record more exuberantly. They point to the recent surge in support for the Green Party, which is making some in Labour nearly as nervous as the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to their right. OUTFLANKED In that context, it was a “no-brainer” for Starmer to go to COP and appear “visibly committed to climate action,” said Steve Akehurst from the political research firm Persuasion UK. “In so far as there is any real backlash to net zero in the U.K., it does not exist inside the Labour electoral coalition,” he said. The Greens are now “competing strongly for those votes.” A second Labour MP put it bluntly. “Starmer is so politically weak that to not attend would open up yet another front on his already collapsed centre-left flank,” they said. Before getting on the plane to Brazil, Starmer met sixth-form students at 10 Downing Street to talk about the summit and the environment. There was a flash of the green, idealistic Starmer that some say lurks beneath the political triangulation. He took the opportunity to remind the teenagers of the “obligation we undoubtedly have to safeguard the planet for generations to come.” “But also,” he added, it’s about safeguarding “hundreds of thousands of jobs in this country.” Additional reporting by Abby Wallace.

LONDON — The self-styled “eco-populist” leader of Britain’s Green Party couldn’t be ideologically further from right-wing firebrand Nigel Farage. But, as Zack Polanski presides over a leap in his party’s poll ratings, he’s actively channeling the Reform UK leader’s media strategy, and putting himself front and center of the argument for change. It’s a high-stakes gamble that, like Farage, could see him accused of turning the outfit into a one-man band. But so far, it appears to be working. “I don’t want everyone to agree with what I or the Green Party is saying,” Polanski told POLITICO in an interview. “What I do want everyone to know is, I’ll always say what I mean.” ‘REACHING THE CEILING’ Polanski won a landslide victory in the Greens’ heated summer leadership election, handing him the reins of a party that made strong inroads at the last election — but still has just four Members of Parliament. Though the Greens stress many spokespeople will continue to represent the organization, he undoubtedly dominates media appearances, and the party is pushing him as an electoral asset. “We were reaching a ceiling of where you could get to by [the] ground game alone,” Polanski reflects of the Greens’ past performance. “What maybe was holding us back was not being heard in the national media.”  Next month, he’ll walk a well-trodden path for British politicians wanting to raise their profile with an appearance on “Have I Got News for You,” the BBC’s long-running satirical quiz show poking fun at politicians. Despite the cheeky reputation, it’s a national institution and a firm part of the establishment with a large national viewership. Previous guests include Farage himself — and Boris Johnson. Polanski says he wants to “make sure that the media have an easy access point” to the party, and the Green leader seems willing to go to places where he’ll have to put up a fight, too — including a colorful on-air battle with Piers Morgan. He’s even launched his own podcast, currently ranked ninth in the U.K. Apple Podcasts charts for politics shows. Some of the numbers lend credence to the Green leader’s theory of the case. The party now has more than 150,000 members, according to its own estimates, compared to 68,500 when Polanski took over. That puts it ahead of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in membership numbers. As Nigel Farage bids to eclipse the Conservatives as a right-wing force in British politics, he has used regular defections to Reform UK to show he’s on the march. | Carl Court/Getty Images Polanski also appears to have overseen a steady polling uptick for the left-wing outfit, as borne out in POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. “There’s a definite and obvious increase,” says YouGov’s Head of European Political and Social Research Anthony Wells.  “He’s already far better known than [predecessors] Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay were.” Wells cautions: “It’s not like the public are in love with him, but the public do … dislike him less than most of the party leaders,” Wells adds. CONVICTION POLITICS As Farage bids to eclipse the Conservatives as a right-wing force in British politics, he has used regular defections to Reform UK to show he’s on the march. Polanski has tried similar, crowing about defections by ex-Labour councilors from the left. In video campaigning, too, Polanski has taken a leaf out of Reform’s book. He peppered his leadership run with arresting monologues to camera, and he has opted to weigh in on — rather than duck — the divisive issue of immigration. A video by the coast urged voters to “hold that line together” against the “super rich” rather than attacking asylum seekers crossing the English Channel in small boats. “The biggest draw for those films is the fact that Zack is prepared to speak about these things — like a lot of other politicians aren’t,” argues the film’s creator Jeremy Clancy, who leads a creative agency making films for progressive outlets. Clancy used to serve as senior communications manager for ex-Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn. Praising the contribution of migrants when polling shows the public want lower levels is a risky bet. The Green leader argues voters will respect a clear stance, even if they disagree. “People who know that their politicians are telling the truth and are speaking with conviction are always preferred,” he says. Like Reform, Polanski’s team has so far tried to paint in populist, primary colors. His first party political broadcast — a convention by which parties are given guaranteed five-minute TV slots — was filmed in the early hours as a metaphor about billionaires sleeping comfortably while others struggle. “Both were efforts to visualize things that you can’t see and to consciously make them as simple as possible,” Clancy says. Those short videos racked up millions of views. Whether this translates into electoral success, however, remains a wide open question. Next May’s local elections will offer the first real ballot box test of Polanski’s pitch. Ipsos’ Research Director for Public Affairs Keiran Pedley says the Greens are “still waiting for that breakthrough moment” and now need to “seal the deal” with voters. He cautioned against assuming cut-through for a leader will lead to electoral success. Pedley compared Polanski to ex-Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg — who lost seats at the 2010 general election despite a major polling bounce mid-campaign off the back of strong televised debate performances. For now, those who’ve joined the movement seem bullish. “The Greens have gone from being a one-issue party, which is the environment, to basically being the broad left party,” said Swindon Borough Councilor Ian Edwards, who joined the Greens in October after resigning the Labour whip earlier this year. But he added: “We can’t rely on just a leader. We’ve got to prove ourselves.”

PARIS — Zohran Mamdani’s rise from little-known New York state assemblyman to front-runner in the New York mayoral election has sparked a newfound sense of optimism among left-wing politicians in Europe ahead of their own local elections next year. Party strategists from across Europe are making the trek across the Atlantic to learn from the millennial who skyrocketed from anonymity to the precipice of the most important city in the United States (or the world, if you ask a New Yorker). They want to see if Mamdani’s grassroots campaign, which has been laser-focused on affordability issues, will work in their cities and regions as well as it did for him in New York’s Democratic Party primary — and potentially in Tuesday’s general election. Manon Aubry, the French co-chair of The Left group in the European Parliament — which gathers Europe’s democratic socialist, left-wing populist and some communist lawmakers — traveled to New York last week where she took part alongside Mamdani canvassers in the campaign’s final stretch. Aubry and her party, France Unbowed, see Mamdani as an example of how to bring about “radical change” as they look to make a splash in the municipal elections that will take place across France in 2026. Germany’s anti-capitalist party, The Left, sent four officials to the Big Apple to meet with officials including the Mamdani campaign’s chief of strategy, Morris Katz. Party Co-Chair Ines Schwerdtner and Maximilian Schirmer, co-chair of The Left’s Berlin branch, also paid a visit. Liza Pflaum, parliamentary office manager for The Left’s other co-chair, Jan van Aken, said she believed her party had exceeded expectations in Germany’s February federal election by using the same playbook as Mamdani: focusing on cost-of-living issues, courting small donors, and investing heavily in door-to-door volunteer operations. Pflaum expects The Left to use Mamdani’s current campaign as a model for her party’s approach to Berlin’s state legislative election next September. “[He] offers a concrete vision of how people’s lives can actually be improved,” she said. “You can feel it right away here in New York: People have begun to feel hope again.” PUNCHY BEATS BORING French and British politicians say they are particularly impressed with how Mamdani’s team has employed a media strategy leveraging their candidate’s charisma — especially the use of short social media clips to hammer home the affordability message while making him seem relatable. “[Mamdani] winning the Democratic primary is already a major political event, both because of what he ran on and how he ran it: His comms strategy, his use of social media. There’s a lot of things we’ve found inspiring,” said Danièle Obono, a France Unbowed lawmaker who will be hosting a livestream watch party for the election results along with other party leaders on Tuesday. Mothin Ali, deputy leader of the United Kingdom’s Greens, said British politicians tend to make “boring and simple” videos and that the left needed to perfect delivering sound bites in a “punchy” way like Mamdani. Manon Aubry and her party, France Unbowed, see Zohran Mamdani as an example of how to bring about “radical change” as they look to make a splash in the municipal elections that will take place across France in 2026. | Frederick Florin/Getty Images Mamdani’s likely triumph over the experienced but scandal-plagued Andrew Cuomo — the former New York governor who is running as an independent after being defeated by Mamdani in the Democratic primary — is also the latest example of more moderate parties being outflanked by more radical forces at both ends of the political spectrum. France Unbowed has established itself as a dominant force on the left in the decade after former Socialist President François Hollande’s single term ended in disappointment. But while France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has had strong showings in presidential races, the party has struggled to take control of local administrations and to prove it can govern on a radical platform — a gap it hopes to close in next year’s municipal elections. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls for the U.K. shows the Greens have climbed to 14 percent, just 4 percentage points behind Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. The latest Find Out Now poll, released last week, showed the Greens — boosted by new leader Zack Polanski’s brand of “eco-populism” — overtaking Labour for the first time. Germany’s The Left’s has continued to rise gradually since its surprise showing in February and the party is now in a stronger position, polling shows, to challenge its moderate rivals, the Greens and the Social Democrats. The Greens candidate for Paris mayor, David Belliard, said Mamdani’s success in appealing to voters worried about the cost of living, an issue plaguing Parisians as well as New Yorkers, had confirmed his suspicion that his party needed to run a more progressive campaign after spending more than two decades as a junior coalition partner to center-left mayors in the French capital who have done more to make the city greener than cheaper. “We’ve spent a lot of time fighting against the end of the world, but maybe not enough helping people make it to the end of the month,” Belliard said. Victor Goury-Laffont reported from Paris, Nette Nöstlinger from Berlin and Martin Alfonsin Larsen from London.

LONDON — For Britain’s government, it’s a no-go. For the Greens’ new leader Zack Polanski, it’s a must. The end of free movement of people with the EU has been a “disaster” for the U.K. that should be urgently reversed, Polanski told POLITICO — in his first major intervention on EU policy. Elected leader of the left-wing environmentalist party last month, Polanski’s brand of “eco populism” is already cutting through with some voters. POLITICO’s polling average shows his party steadily climbing to 13 percent — more than double the 6 percent they won in last year’s general election. One outlier even shows them drawing level with Labour. While Polanski — a relative outsider who sits in London’s regional assembly rather than Westminster — has so far cut through by focusing on domestic policy, inequality and the cost of living, he’s now setting out his stall on Europe. Though Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to reset relations with the EU, he’s done so within tight red lines designed to appeal to Brexit supporters: no re-entry to the single market, no rejoining the customs union, and absolutely no return to freedom of movement. Polanski has no such qualms, and he’s not impressed with the prime minister’s caution. “It all feels a little bit ‘meh,’ for want of a better description,” he told POLITICO of Starmer’s reset so far. “It doesn’t really feel like he has any kind of passionate vision of what the future looks like, or any real direction that he’s driving it in. He doesn’t really have a vision for this country. So how is he going to have a vision of what the future of Europe looks like?” ‘DISASTER’ In particular, the Green leader is unapologetic about a return to free movement of people — which ended in 2021. It’s an issue most politicians in Westminster won’t go anywhere near for fear of landing on the wrong side of voters annoyed about immigration. “The restriction on free movement has been a disaster,” he said, adding that it should be in the “first phase” of any rapprochement. “It’s interesting to see [Nigel Farage’s party] Reform banging on about immigration, but we know immigration has risen since Brexit. “It’s just risen from countries outside of Europe. So even on its own terms, Reform and the Brexit Party’s own project was a disaster by their own criteria. And I think free movement is really important, both for our citizens and citizens around Europe.” Though Keir Starmer has sought to reset relations with the EU, he’s done so within tight red lines designed to appeal to Brexit supporters. | Stefan Rousseau/PA Images via Getty Images Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than rates in the 2010s when numbers were typically between 200,000 and 300,000. But despite welcoming more newcomers than ever, Brits have lost their right to move abroad within the EU. Polling commissioned by POLITICO shows voters aren’t impressed with the new system and are open to turning back the clock, if somewhat disinterested in the policy detail. Starmer’s EU reset, primed at a summit in May this year, involves negotiating a new agrifood deal with the EU to smooth trade in food, closer cooperation on energy, and a “youth experience” scheme that doesn’t restore free movement but would give a capped number of young people time-limited visas to live abroad. Polanski, however, thinks the government should go further on building ties with the EU in other areas. “I think rejoining the customs union is something we should be doing as soon as possible,” he said. “It’s just resulting in higher prices for people.” It’s a policy also backed by the opposition Liberal Democrats, with whom the Greens are bidding for disillusioned Labour voters. As for rejoining the bloc altogether? “Over longer term, absolutely we should be rejoining the European Union. But we’ve got to make sure that that conversation is a conversation all the public’s involved with. I think one of the reasons Brexit happened is because so many people feel like politics is done to them rather than with them,” he said. “I think Brexit was a catastrophic decision. I think it’s also important that politicians listen to the fact that the public made that decision, and I believe they made that decision because of the lack of investment in their communities and need and want of something different. I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone, though, who thinks that was a right decision that has made our communities any wealthier.” INTERNATIONALISM The Green leader told POLITICO that “really grim” plans by the Tories and Reform to leave the European Convention on Human Rights show “the slow march towards fascism that this country is on.” But he said the rightward drift across Europe is a reason to get stuck in, not to hang back. “I think there’s some really worrying trends across Europe, particularly around the far right, and we’re seeing the beginnings of some of those trends in our own country. I think any political party has a decision to make, which is: Do you stay isolationist and out of Europe and say, ‘Well, you know, they’re going right wing, so we’re not going to get involved.’ “Or do you say actually: International and indeed, socialist solidarity looks like working with left-wing or progressive movements across Europe in ways that look to reform Europe; to make sure that the entire project is moving in a direction that ultimately protects people’s freedom, protects the poorest communities across Europe, and is the best thing for our country, too.”