BRUSSELS — If European governments didn’t realize before that Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland were serious, they do now. Policymakers are no longer ignoring the U.S. president’s ramped-up rhetoric — and are desperately searching for a plan to stop him. “We must be ready for a direct confrontation with Trump,” said an EU diplomat briefed on ongoing discussions. “He is in an aggressive mode, and we need to be geared up.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that he planned to discuss a U.S. acquisition of Greenland with Danish officials next week. The White House said Trump’s preference would be to acquire the territory through a negotiation and also that it would consider purchasing the island — but that a military takeover was possible. As diplomatic efforts intensified in Europe, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said he and his counterparts from Germany and Poland had discussed a joint European response to Trump’s threats. “What is at stake is the question of how Europe, the EU, can be strengthened to deter threats, attempts on its security and interests,” Barrot told reporters. “Greenland is not for sale, and it is not for taking … so the threats must stop.” POLITICO spoke with officials, diplomats, experts and NATO insiders to map out how Europe could deter the U.S. president from getting that far, and what its options are if he does. They were granted anonymity to speak freely. “Everyone is very stunned and unaware of what we actually have in the toolbox,” said a former Danish MP. “No one really knows what to do because the Americans can do whatever they want. But we need answers to these questions immediately. They can’t wait three or five or seven years.” On Wednesday, POLITICO set out the steps Trump could take to seize Greenland. Now here’s the flip side: What Europe does to stop him. OPTION 1: FIND A COMPROMISE Trump says Greenland is vital for U.S. security interests and accuses Denmark of not doing enough to protect it against increasing Chinese and Russian military activity in the Arctic.  A negotiated settlement that sees Trump come out of talks with something he can sell as a win and that allows Denmark and Greenland to save face is perhaps the fastest route out of trouble. A former senior NATO official suggested the alliance could mediate between Greenland, Denmark and the U.S., as it has done with alliance members Turkey and Greece over their disputes. U.S. NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said on Wednesday that Trump and his advisers do not believe Greenland is properly secured. | Omar Havana/Getty Images U.S. NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said on Wednesday that Trump and his advisers do not believe Greenland is properly secured. “As the ice thaws and as the routes in the Arctic and the High North open up … Greenland becomes a very serious security risk for the mainland of the United States of America.” NATO allies are also mulling fresh overtures to Trump that could bolster Greenland’s security, despite a widely held view that any direct threat from Russian and Chinese ships to the territory is overstated. Among other proposals, the alliance should consider accelerating defense spending on the Arctic, holding more military exercises in the region, and posting troops to secure Greenland and reassure the U.S. if necessary, according to three NATO diplomats.  The alliance should also be open to setting up an “Arctic Sentry” scheme — shifting its military assets to the region — similar to its Eastern Sentry and Baltic Sentry initiatives, two of the diplomats said. “Anything that can be done” to bolster the alliance’s presence near Greenland and meet Trump’s demands “should be maxed out,” said one of the NATO diplomats cited above. Trump also says he wants Greenland for its vast mineral deposits and potential oil and gas reserves. But there’s a reason Greenland has remained largely untapped: Extracting resources from its inhospitable terrain is difficult and very expensive, making them less competitive than Chinese imports. Denmark’s envoys say they tried for years to make the case for investment in Greenland, but their European counterparts weren’t receptive — though an EU diplomat familiar with the matter said there are signs that attitude is shifting. OPTION 2: GIVE GREENLAND A TON OF CASH The Trump administration has thrown its weight behind Greenland’s independence movement. The pitch is that if the Arctic territory leaves the Kingdom of Denmark and signs up to a deal with the U.S., it will be flooded with American cash.  While Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out using military force to take Greenland, he has also insisted he wants it to come willingly. The EU and Denmark are trying to convince Greenlanders that they can give them a better deal. Brussels is planning to more than double its spending on Greenland from 2028 under long-term budget plans drawn up after Trump started to make claims on the Danish-held territory, according to a draft proposal from the European Commission published in September. Under the plans, which are subject to further negotiations among member countries, the EU would almost double spending on Greenland to €530 million for a seven-year period starting in 2028.  That comes on top of the money Denmark sends Greenland as part of its agreement with the self-governing territory. Greenland would also be eligible to apply for an additional €44 million in EU funding for remote territories associated with European countries, per the same document. Danish and European support currently focuses mainly on welfare, health care, education and the territory’s green transition. Under the new spending plans, that focus would expand to developing the island’s ability to extract mineral resources. “We have many, many people below the poverty line, and the infrastructure in Greenland is lagging, and our resources are primarily taken out without good profit to Greenland but mostly profit to Danish companies,” said Kuno Fencker, a pro-independence Greenlandic opposition MP.  An attractive offer from Denmark and the EU could be enough to keep Greenlanders out of America’s grasp. OPTION 3: RETALIATE ECONOMICALLY Since Trump’s first term in office, “there’s been a lot of effort to try and think through how we ensure European security, Nordic security, Arctic security, without the U.S. actively involved,” said Thomas Crosbie, a U.S. military expert at the Royal Danish Defense College, which provides training and education for the Danish defense force. “That’s hard, but it’s possible. But I don’t know if anyone has seriously contemplated ensuring European security against America. It’s just crazy,” Crosbie said. The EU does have one strong political tool at its disposal, which it could use to deter Trump: the Anti-Coercion Instrument, the “trade bazooka” created after the first Trump administration, which allows the EU to retaliate against trade discrimination. The EU threatened to deploy it after Trump slapped tariffs on the bloc but shelved it in July after the two sides reached a deal. With the U.S. still imposing tariffs on the EU, Brussels could bring the bazooka back out. “We have exports to the United States a bit above €600 billion, and for around one-third of those goods we have a market share of more than 50 percent and it’s totally clear that this is also the power in our hands,” said Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee. But Trump would have to believe the EU was serious, given that all its tough talk amounted to nothing the last time around. OPTION 4: BOOTS ON THE GROUND If the U.S. does decide to take Greenland by military force, there’s little Europeans could do to prevent it.  “They are not going to preemptively attack Americans before they claim Greenland, because that would be done before an act of war,” said Crosbie, the Danish military educator. “But in terms of responding to the first move, it really depends. If the Americans have a very small group of people, you could try and arrest those people, because there’d be a criminal act.” It’s a different story if the U.S. goes in hard. Legally speaking, it’s possible Denmark would be forced to respond militarily. Under a 1952 standing order, troops should “immediately take up the fight without waiting for, or seeking orders” in “the event of an attack on Danish territory.” European countries should weigh the possibility of deploying troops to Greenland — if Denmark requests it — to increase the potential cost of U.S. military action, an EU diplomat said, echoing suggestions that Berlin and Paris could send forces to deter any incursion. While those forces are unlikely to be able to withstand a U.S. invasion, they would act as a deterrent. “You could have a tripwire effect where you have some groups of people who are physically in the way, like a Tiananmen Square-type situation, which would potentially force the [U.S.] military to use violence” or to back down, said Crosbie.  But that strategy comes at a high cost, he said. “This is completely unexplored territory, but it is quite possible that people’s lives will be lost in the attempt to reject the American claim over Greenland.” Gerardo Fortuna, Clea Caulcutt and Eli Stokols contributed reporting.

Donald Trump started his second term by calling the European Union an “atrocity” on trade. He said it was created to “screw” Americans. As he imposed the highest tariffs in a century, he derided Europe as “pathetic.” And to round off the year, he slammed the continent as “weak” and “decaying.” In the midst of all this, Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top official, somehow summoned the composure to fly to Trump’s Scottish golf resort to smile and shake hands on a one-sided trade deal that will inflict untold pain on European exporters. She even managed a thumbs up in the family photo with Trump afterwards. Yes, it’s been one hell of a year for the world’s biggest trading relationship. The economic consequences will take years to materialize — but the short-term impact is manifest: in forcing Europe to face up to its overreliance on the U.S. security umbrella and find new friends to trade with. With a warning that the following might trigger flashbacks, we take you through POLITICO’s coverage of Europe’s traumatic trade year at the hands of Trump: JANUARY As Trump returns to the White House, we explore how America’s trading partners are wargaming his trade threats. The big idea? Escalate to de-escalate. It’s a playbook we later saw unfold in Trump’s clashes with China and Canada. But, in the event, the EU never dares to escalate. Trump’s return does galvanize the EU into advancing trade deals with other partners — like Mexico or Latin America’s Mercosur bloc. “Europe will keep seeking cooperation — not only with our long-time like-minded friends, but with any country we share interests with,” von der Leyen tells the World Economic Forum the day after Trump is sworn in. FEBRUARY As Trump announces that he will reimpose steel and aluminum tariffs, von der Leyen vows a “firm and proportionate response.” The bloc has strengthened its trade defenses since his first term, and needs to be ready to activate them, advises former top Commission trade official Jean-Luc Demarty: “Especially with a personality like Trump, if we don’t react, he’ll trample us.” That begs the question as to whether trade wars are as easy to win, as Trump likes to say. The short answer is, of course, “no.” Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, meanwhile, packs a suitcase full of concessions on his first mission to Washington. At the end of the month, Brussels threatens to use its trade “bazooka” — a trade-defense weapon called the Anti-Coercion Instrument — after Trump says the European Union was created to “screw” America. MARCH We called it early with this cover story by Nicholas Vinocur and Camille Gijs: Trump wants to destroy the EU — and rebuild it in his image. As Trump’s steel tariffs enter force, Brussels announces retaliatory measures that far exceed those it imposed in his first term. And, as he builds up to his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the EU signals retaliation extending beyond goods to services such as tech and banking. (None of these are implemented.) APRIL “They rip us off. It’s so sad to see. It’s so pathetic,” Trump taunts the EU as he throws it into the sin bin along with China, Japan, Taiwan and Korea. In his Liberation Day announcement in the White House Rose Garden, Trump whacks the EU with a 20 percent “reciprocal” tariff. Von der Leyen’s response the next morning is weak: She says only that the EU is “prepared to respond.” That’s because, even though the EU has strengthened its trade armory, its 27 member countries can’t agree to deploy it. The bloc nonetheless busies itself with drawing up a retaliation list of goods made in states run by Trump’s Republican allies — including trucks, cigarettes and ice cream. MAY The EU’s hit list gets longer in response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs — with planes and automobiles targeted in a €100 billion counterstrike that looks scary on paper but is never acted on.  We report exclusively that Brussels is ramping up contacts with a Pacific trade group called the CPTPP. And we assess the chances of Trump pressuring the EU into a big, beautiful trade deal by threatening to raise duties on European exports to 50 percent. The verdict? Dream on!  JUNE The setting shifts to the Canadian Rockies — where a G7 summit takes on a G6 vs. Trump dynamic as other leaders seek ways to cooperate with him on Russia and China even as he pummels them with tariffs. Von der Leyen tries her best, turning hawkish on China in a bid to find common ground. Back in Brussels, at a European leaders’ summit, von der Leyen announces her pivot to Asia — floating the idea of a world trade club without the U.S. JULY As the clock counts down to Trump’s July 9 deal deadline, the lack of unity among the EU’s 27 member countries undermines its credibility as a negotiating partner to be reckoned with. There’s still hope that the EU can lock in a 10 percent tariff, but should it take the deal or leave it? The deadline slips and, as talks drag on, it looks more likely that the EU will end up with a 15 percent baseline tariff — far higher than Europe had feared at the start of Trump’s term. Brussels is still talking about retaliation but … yeah … you already know that won’t happen. With Trump in Scotland for a golfing weekend, von der Leyen jets in to shake hands on a historic, but one-sided trade deal at his Turnberry resort. Koen Verhelst also flies in to get the big story. “It was heavy lifting we had to do,” von der Leyen said, stressing that the 15 percent tariff would be a ceiling. AUGUST Despite the thumbs-up in Turnberry, recriminations soon fly that the EU has accepted a bad deal. EU leaders defend it as the best they could get, given Europe’s reliance on the U.S. to guarantee its security. The two sides come out with a joint statement spelling out the terms — POLITICO breaks it down. Not only does the EU come off worse in the Turnberry deal, but it also sacrifices its long-term commitment to rules-based trade in return for Trump’s uncertain support for Ukraine. The realization slowly dawns that Europe’s humiliation could be profound and long-lasting. With the ink barely dry on the accord, Trump takes aim at digital taxes and regulation that he views as discriminatory. It’s a blast that is clearly aimed at Brussels. SEPTEMBER The torrent of trade news slows — allowing Antonia Zimmermann to travel to Ireland’s “Viagra Village” to report how Trump’s drive to reshore drug production threatens Europe’s top pharmaceuticals exporter. OCTOBER EU leaders resist Trump’s pressure to tear up the bloc’s business rules, instead trying to present a red tape-cutting drive pushed by von der Leyen as a self-generated reform that has the fringe benefit of addressing U.S. concerns.    NOVEMBER Attention shifts to Washington as the U.S. Supreme Court hears challenges to Trump’s sweeping tariffs. The justices are skeptical of his invocation of emergency powers to justify them. Even Trump appointees on the bench subject his lawyer to tough questioning.  A row flares on the first visit to Brussels by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Lutnick presses for concessions on EU digital regulation in exchange for possible tariff relief on steel. “Blackmail,” is the counterblast from Teresa Ribera, the EU’s top competition regulator. DECEMBER The year ends as it started, with another Trump broadside against Europe and its leaders. “I think they’re weak,” he tells POLITICO. “They don’t know what to do on trade, either.”

The European Commission will present a new plan to break the EU’s dependencies on China for critical raw materials, President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Saturday. The EU executive chief warned of “clear acceleration and escalation in the way interdependencies are leveraged and weaponized,” in a speech Saturday at the Berlin Global Dialogue. In recent months, China has tightened export controls over rare earths and other critical materials. The Asian powerhouse controls close to 70 percent of the world’s rare earths production and almost all of the refining. The EU’s response “must match the scale of the risks we face in this area,” von der Leyen said, adding that “we are focusing on finding solutions with our Chinese counterparts.” Brussels and Beijing are set to discuss the export controls issue during meetings next week. “But we are ready to use all of the instruments in our toolbox to respond if needed,” the head of the EU executive warned. This suggests that the Commission could make use of the EU’s most powerful trade weapon — the Anti-Coercion Instrument. This comes after French President Emmanuel Macron called on the EU executive to trigger the trade bazooka at a meeting of EU leaders on Thursday. His push has not met with much support from the other leaders around the table. NEW BREAKAWAY PLAN To break the EU’s over-reliance on China for critical materials imports and refining, the Commission will put forward a “RESourceEU plan,” von der Leyen said. She did not provide much detail about the plan, nor when it would be presented. But she said it would follow a similar model as the REPowerEU plan that the Commission introduced in 2022 to phase out Russian fossil fuels after Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Under REPowerEU, the Commission proposed investing €225 billion to diversify energy supply routes, accelerate the deployment of renewables, improve grids interconnections across the bloc and boost the EU hydrogen market, among other measures. The EU executive also put forward a legislative proposal, which is currently under negotiations with the European Parliament and the Council, to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. The aim of RESourceEU “is to secure access to alternative sources of critical raw materials in the short, medium and long term for our European industry,” von der Leyen explained. “It starts with the circular economy. Not for environmental reasons. But to exploit the critical raw materials already contained in products sold in Europe,” she said. She added that the EU “will speed up work on critical raw materials partnerships with countries like Ukraine and Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Chile and Greenland.” “Europe cannot do things the same way anymore. We learned this lesson painfully with energy; we will not repeat it with critical materials,” von der Leyen said.

BRUSSELS — Brussels and Beijing will discuss China’s recent restrictions on exports of rare earths and magnets next week, the European Commission said on Friday. “We can confirm that both in-person and virtual high-level technical meetings will take place next week,” trade spokesperson Olof Gill told reporters. The talks will not include Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič or his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao just yet. “Teams will engage under the Export Control Dialogue which was upgraded after EU-China summit in July,” Gill added. It is unclear if restrictions on chips will also be discussed. Germany Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Friday postponed a trip to China due to start next week. Beijing’s export controls came up in the talks during Thursday’s meeting of EU leaders, according to two EU officials, with some leaders expressing their concerns. One said the EU’s most powerful trade weapon, the Anti-Coercion Instrument, was mentioned, but didn’t garner much interest around the table. The EU, which imports many of its critical raw materials, almost all rare earths and permanent magnets from China, is caught in the crossfire between Beijing and the Trump administration in the U.S. “A crisis in the supply of critical raw materials is no longer a distant risk,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this week in a speech to European lawmakers.

BRUSSELS — Heard the one about the 12-and-half-hour meeting of 27 national leaders that succeeded in agreeing very little apart from coming up with quite a lot of “let’s decide in a couple of months” or “let’s just all agree on language that means absolutely nothing but looks like we’re united” or “let’s at least celebrate that we got through this packed agenda without having to come back on Friday”? No? Well let us enlighten you. And if that makes you question how we’ve managed to squeeze 29 things out of this, well let’s just say one of these is about badly functioning vending machines… 1 . STRAIGHT OUT OF THE BOX WITH A QUICK WIN ON SANCTIONS … The day was off to a flying start when Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico lifted his veto over the latest raft of Russia sanctions on the eve of the summit — allowing the package to get formally signed off at 8 a.m. before leaders even started talking. Fico rolled over after claiming to achieve what he set out to do: clinch support for Slovakia’s car industry. He found an unusual ally in German Chancellor Friedrich Merz who he met separately to discuss the impact of climate targets on their countries’ automotive sectors. 2. … BUT AGREEMENT ON FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS WAS LESS FORTHCOMING There was a moment earlier in the week where the EU looked to be on the cusp of a breakthrough on using Russian frozen assets to fund a €140 billion loan for Ukraine. Belgium, the main holdout, appeared to be warming to the European Commission’s daring idea to crack open the piggy bank. But Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever stuck by his guns , saying he feared taking the assets, which are held in a Brussels-based financial depository, could trigger Moscow to take legal action. 3. BELGIUM DIDN’T MOVE ON ITS BIG THREE BIG DEMANDS The Flemish right-winger’s prerequisites were threefold: the “full mutualization of the risk,” guarantees that if the money has to paid back, “every member state will chip in,” and for every other EU country that holds immobilized assets to also seize them. Leaders eventually agreed on that classic EU summit outcome: a fudge. They tasked the European Commission to “present options” at the next European Council — effectively deciding not to decide. “Political will is clear, and the process will move forward,” said one EU official. But it’s uncertain whether a deal can be brokered by the next summit, currently set for December. 4. DE WEVER REJECTS THE ‘BAD BOY’ LABEL After POLITICO ranked the Belgian leader among its list of “bad boys” likely to disrupt Thursday’s summit (rightfully, might we add), he protested the branding. “A bad boy! Me? … If you talk about the immobilized assets, we’re the very, very best,” he said. The day was off to a flying start when Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico lifted his veto over the latest raft of Russia sanctions on the eve of the summit. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA 5. URSULA VON DER LEYEN ALSO CONCEDED THEY’RE NOT QUITE THERE YET The high-level talks “allowed us to identify points we need to clarify,” the Commission president said tactfully. “Nobody vetoed nothing today,” European Council President António Costa chimed in. “The technical and legal aspects of Europe’s support need to be worked upon.” Translation in case you didn’t understand the double negative: The EU needs to come up with a better plan to reassure Belgium — and fast. 6. UKRAINE: EVER THE OPTIMIST Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ― a guest of the summit ― told reporters Russia must pay the price for its invasion, calling on the EU to follow through with its frozen assets proposal, adding he thought the leaders were “close” to an agreement. “If Russia brought war to our land, they have to pay for this war,” he said. 7. AND ZELENSKYY IS STILL HOLDING OUT FOR TOMAHAWKS “We will see,” was Zelenskyy’s message on the topic of acquiring the long-range missiles from the U.S., which Donald Trump has so far ruled out selling to Kyiv. “Each day brings something … maybe tomorrow we will have Tomahawks,” Zelenskyy said. “I don’t know.” 8. UKRAINE WANTS GERMANY TO SEND MORE WEAPONS TOO Merz held a meeting with Zelenskyy about “the situation in Washington and the American plans that are now on the table,” a German official said, adding Zelenskyy made “specific requests” to the chancellor about helping Ukraine with its “defense capabilities.” After the summit, the German leader said Berlin would review a proposal on how German technologies could help to protect Ukrainian’s energy and water infrastructure. 9. THUMBS UP TO DEFENSE ROADMAP! EU leaders endorsed the Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030 presented last week by the Commission, which aims to prepare member countries for war by 2030. One of its main objectives is to fill EU capability gaps in nine areas: air and missile defense, enablers, military mobility, artillery systems, AI and cyber, missile and ammunition, drones and anti-drones, ground combat, and maritime. The plan also mentions areas like defense readiness and the role of Ukraine, which would be heavily armed and supported to become a “steel porcupine” able to deter Russian aggression. As leaders deliberated, a Russian fighter jet and a refueling aircraft briefly crossed into Lithuanian airspace from the Kaliningrad region, underscoring the need for the EU to protect its skies. 10. KYIV IS PROMISING TO BUY EUROPEAN — MOSTLY Ukraine will prioritize domestic and European industry when spending cash from the proposed reparation loan funded by Russia’s frozen assets, Zelenskyy told leaders at the summit — but wants to be able to go across the pond when necessary. 11. MUCH THE SAME FOR SPAIN Spanish leader Pedro Sánchez said the country had committed to contributing cash to a fund organized by NATO to buy weapons for Ukraine from the U.S. | Nicolas Tucat/Getty Images Spanish leader Pedro Sánchez said the country had committed to contributing cash to a fund organized by NATO to buy weapons for Ukraine from the U.S. “Today, most of the air defense components, such as Patriots or Tomahawks … which Ukraine clearly needs, are only manufactured in the United States,” he said. Madrid has been a thorn in Washington’s side over its lax defense spending. 12. THERE WAS A MERCOSUR SURPRISE Merz stunned trade watchers when he announced the leaders had backed a controversial trade agreement with Latin American countries. “We voted on it today: The Mercosur agreement can be ratified,” the German chancellor told reporters, adding that he was “very happy” about that. “All 27 countries voted unanimously in favor,” Merz added on Mercosur. “It’s done.” The remark sparked confusion amongst delegations, as the European Council doesn’t usually vote on trade agreements — let alone one as controversial as the mammoth agreement with the countries of the Latin American bloc of Mercosur, which has been in negotiations for over 25 years. One EU diplomat clarified that it’s because European Council President António Costa sought confirmation from EU leaders that they would agree to take a stance on the deal by the end of this year — and no formal vote was taken yet. 13. CLIMATE TALKS PASSED WITHOUT A HITCH One of the hotter potatoes ahead of the summit passed surprisingly smoothly. Leaders ultimately refrained from bulldozing the EU’s climate targets, agreeing to a vaguely worded commitment to a green transition, though without committing to a 2040 goal, which proposes cutting emissions by 90 percent compared to 1990 levels. In the words of one diplomat: “Classic balance, everyone equally unhappy.” 14. AT LEAST ONE LEADER SEEMED PLEASED, THOUGH Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the summit a “turning point” in Europe’s approach to green policy, adding he succeeded in inserting a “revision clause” into the EU’s plan to extend its carbon-trading system to heating and transport emissions that will give member countries the option to delay or adjust the rollout. “We’ve defused a threat to Polish families and drivers,” he declared, calling the change a signal that “Europe is finally speaking our language.” 15. BUT THE ISSUE WON’T STAY BURIED FOR LONG Ministers are set to reconvene and cast a vote on the 2040 goal on Nov. 4, described by one diplomat as “groundhog day.” 16. MEANWHILE, THERE WAS NOTHING ON MIGRATION … Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the summit a “turning point” in Europe’s approach to green policy. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images Aside from promising to make migration a “priority,” the EU’s leaders failed to make any kind of breakthrough on a stalled proposal for burden-sharing. Reminder: The EU missed a deadline last week to agree on a new way of deciding which member countries are under stress from receiving migrants and ways of sharing the responsibility more equally across the bloc. 17. … BUT THE ANTI-MIGRANT BREAKFAST CLUB LIVES ON Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and the Netherlands’ Dick Schoof have kept up their informal pre-summit “migration breakfasts” since last June, swapping innovative ideas on tougher border and asylum policies. They met again on Thursday with von der Leyen, who updated them on the EU’s latest plans for accelerating migrant returns, and the trio agreed an informal summit will take place next month in Rome. 18. NOR DID THE EU’S SOCIAL MEDIA BAN GET MUCH OF A LOOK IN As expected, the leaders endorsed a “possible” minimum age for kids to use social media, but failed to commit to a bloc-wide ban, with capitals divided on whether to make the age 15 or 16, as well as on the issue of parental consent. 19. THERE WAS A WHOLE LOT OF WAITING FOR NEWS… Journalists were frantically pressing their sources in the Council and national delegations to find out what was happening at the leaders’ table as the meeting dragged into the late hours. It eventually finished at 10.30 p.m. ― 12 and a half hours after it began. 20. … AND THE GREENS SEIZED THEIR MOMENT The EU Parliament’s Greens group co-chair Bas Eickhout wandered the hallways of the Justus Lipsius building ready to brief bored journalists about the wonders of the Green Deal — while leaders debated how to unravel it in the other room. 21. THE COMBUSTION ENGINE BAN FELL FLAT One of the pillars of the EU’s green transition, its 2035 de facto combustion engine ban, was set to play a major role in the competitiveness and climate discussions, with Merz and Fico spoiling for a fight over the proposal — yet it barely registered as a footnote. Slovakia used the climate talks to oppose the ban, and the Czech Republic chimed in to agree, but in the end the summit’s official conclusions welcomed the Commission’s proposed ban without mentioning how it should be watered down. 22. THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL’S VENDING MACHINES AREN’T VERY, ER, COMPETITIVE Officials and journalists alike found that the vending machines in the EU’s Justus Lipsius building, which incidentally is due for a €1 billion renovation, about as efficient as a roundtable of 27 national leaders lasting 12 and a half hours. 23. THE BLOC IS WORRIED ABOUT CHINA… Beijing’s export controls on rare earths came up in the talks on competitiveness, according to two EU officials, with some leaders expressing their concerns. 24. … BUT THEY’RE NOT READY TO GO NUCLEAR — YET One of the officials said the EU’s most powerful trade weapon, the Anti-Coercion Instrument, was mentioned, but didn’t garner much interest around the table. 25. HOUSING GETS 40 MINUTES — NOT BAD FOR A FIRST RUN Leaders spent a chunk of time discussing the continent’s housing crisis. A solid start for the topic, which made it onto the agenda for the first time at Costa’s behest. The EU executive “is ready to help,” von der Leyen said after the summit, announcing a European Affordable Housing Plan is in the pipeline and the first EU Housing Summit in 2026. | Dursun Aydemir/Getty Images During talks, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called on the Commission to create a database tracking which housing policies work — and which don’t — across Europe. Most leaders agreed that, while housing remains a national competence, the EU still has a role to play. 26. AND THE COMMISSION WANTS TO ROLL UP ITS SLEEVES The EU executive “is ready to help,” von der Leyen said after the summit, announcing a European Affordable Housing Plan is in the pipeline and the first EU Housing Summit in 2026. 27. LEADERS ENJOYED A FEAST OR TWO For lunch, langoustine with yuzu, celeriac and apple, fillet of veal with artichokes and crispy polenta, and a selection of fresh fruit. For dinner, cannelloni with herbs, courgette velouté, fillet of brill with chorizo and pepper, and fig meringue cake. Yum. 28. THOUGH A FEW COULDN’T MAKE IT Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the most notable absence, rocking up several hours late due to a national holiday in Budapest. Portugal and Slovenia’s leaders were also absent at one point. 29. AND COSTA KEPT HIS PROMISE … JUST The European Council president pledged to streamline summits under his watch, making them one-day affairs instead of two. And with just a couple hours to spare, he was successful. Okay, breathe. Did we miss anything? (Don’t answer that.) Gerardo Fortuna, Max Griera Andrieu, Jordyn Dahl, Gabriel Gavin, Hanne Cokelaere, Clea Caulcutt, Hans von der Burchard, Kathryn Carlson, Tim Ross, Jacopo Barigazzi, Gregorio Sorgi, Eliza Gkritsi, Carlo Martuscelli, Nicholas Vinocur, Saga Ringmar, Sarah Wheaton, Louise Guillot, Zia Weise, Camille Gijs, Bartosz Brzezinski and Giedre Peseckyte contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — As Beijing further weaponizes its control over the flow of minerals that Western countries need for their green, defense and digital ambitions, Europe has to face an uncomfortable truth: It won’t escape China’s dominance anytime soon. The Chinese government’s shock imposition earlier in October of sweeping export controls on rare-earth magnets and the raw materials needed to make them has escalated a running trade feud with the United States. The embargo threatens vast — and rapid — collateral damage on the European Union and has forced its way onto the agenda of a high-level summit on Thursday. “A crisis in the supply of critical raw materials is no longer a distant risk. It is on our doorstep,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a pre-summit speech to European lawmakers. “Now, we must accelerate decisively and urgently. We need faster, more reliable supply of critical raw materials, both here in Europe and with trusted partners. I will be ready to propose further measures to ensure Europe’s economic security and I will accelerate what we have already put in motion.” Beijing’s announcement this month drew a fierce rebuke from U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to 100 percent. Trump is due to hold a high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific summit at the end of October. The EU, which imports nearly all of its rare earths and permanent magnets from the Middle Kingdom, is caught in the crossfire. “We have no interest in escalation,” Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade chief, told reporters Tuesday. “However, this situation casts a shadow over our relationship. Therefore, a prompt resolution is essential.” China and the EU will “intensify contacts at all levels” on the issue, Šefčovič added. Wang Wentao, the Chinese trade minister, has accepted an invitation to come to Brussels in the coming days to discuss the restrictions, Šefčovič said after a two-hour call between the two. The EU is also consulting with the G7 group of industrialized nations on a coordinated response on critical minerals ahead of an Oct. 30-31 ministerial meeting in Canada. Yet, behind the talk of adequate diplomatic responses and potential retaliation there is no escaping the dominance in rare earths that China has built up over decades. For now at least. “In the short term there’s nothing you can do, except try and negotiate with the Chinese,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.  HIT WHERE IT HURTS Beijing dominates the entire supply chain of rare earths — a group of 17 minerals used in permanent magnets found in everything from electric vehicles and wind turbines, to F-35 fighter jets and naval vessels. Under its new export controls, importers will need a government license to access not only those permanent magnets, but also the refined metals and alloys that go into them. China already weaponized its leading position in producing and refining critical raw materials — and specifically rare-earth elements like scandium, yttrium and dysprosium — in response to Trump’s first wave of punitive tariffs back in April. Eventually, the White House caved in. This time, again, the Chinese export controls are “a tit-for-tat for U.S. policy,” said a person from the Chinese business sector, granted anonymity to speak candidly. The EU is being hit, too: “The effects are direct and enormous, particularly for the defence sector,” Tobias Gehrke and Janka Oertel of the European Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a commentary. “The EU defence industry risks grinding to a halt as inventory shortfalls could leave it struggling to produce and deliver enough weapons for the war in Ukraine.” China accounts for 61 percent of rare earths extraction and 92 percent of refining, according to the International Energy Agency. It provides nearly 99 percent of the EU’s supply of the 17 rare earths, as well as about 98 percent of its rare earth permanent magnets. UNDERDOG DIPLOMACY  In addition to its minerals monopoly, Beijing has built a legal foundation to capitalize on it — through an export control toolbox that mirrors the one Washington has used to cap exports of leading-edge technology to China. The EU lacks a comparable armory that would allow it to respond in kind. Whereas export controls are now a go-to option in Washington’s and Beijing’s trade negotiation strategies, to Brussels, protecting national security remains the sole legitimate justification to deploy such measures.  “The EU will need to find a way to live in this new reality,” said Antonia Hmaidi, senior analyst at think tank Merics, adding that the bloc may have to give up its belief in the rules-based trading system that characterized the post-World War Two era. “It could also mean that the EU chooses not to play that game, but then the EU needs a different game to play,” she said, adding that weaponizing EU market access could be a powerful alternative. Ahead of Thursday’s summit, calls are growing to ready the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), the only trade policy tool the EU can wield against economic coercion. Working mostly through deterrence, the bloc’s so-called trade bazooka seeks to prevent foreign powers from pressuring European countries — but only foresees action as a last resort. “It’s the usual sabre rattling from the usual subjects, but activating the ACI is not seriously under consideration at this stage,” said one EU diplomat, who was also granted anonymity. Asked whether the EU executive is looking at the ACI, the Commission’s deputy chief spokesperson Olof Gill said: “Right now we’re focused on engagement, and we’re not going to go down the road of speculating about any other possibility.” That engagement is delivering scant results. In June, Beijing agreed to set up a “green channel” for European companies to speed the approval of export licenses. And yet, Šefčovič said, only half of the 2,000 priority applications submitted by European companies to the Chinese authorities had been “properly addressed.” CATCHING UP  Moving forward, the EU needs to dramatically ramp up its diversification efforts. At a meeting with industry leaders on Monday, Industry Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné said the EU’s response must build on two pillars, according to his cabinet: a diplomatic solution and a more resilient supply chain. China accounts for 61 percent of rare earths extraction and 92 percent of refining, according to the International Energy Agency. | VCG/Gett Images That, however, won’t happen overnight. Especially since the EU executive unveiled its grand plan to diversify its supply of raw materials away from China two years ago, officials have been stressing the need to stockpile more of the metals and minerals, ramp up domestic mining and production and seal new partnerships. But concrete action is still lagging, with experts and industry alike lamenting the lack of funding being put on the table. James Watson, director general at metals lobby Eurometaux, welcomed the EU executive’s decision to award “strategic project” status to some 60 mines and refineries inside and outside the bloc, but added: “We still need dedicated funding for the sector, as well as addressing structural issues, such as higher energy costs and heavier administrative burdens, that put as at a competitive disadvantage compared with our global competitors.” Camille Gijs and Koen Verhelst contributed reporting.

Robert Benson is the associate director for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress. History will likely remember the U.S.–EU Turnberry trade deal less for its technicalities than for what it symbolizes: the moment Washington openly rewrote the transatlantic bargain. Far from a victory for Brussels, this terse 19-point deal merely codified the structural disadvantages the bloc faced in earlier trade talks. Building on the understanding reached at U.S. President Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in July — which European leaders had called “a dark day” — the agreement imposed a 15 percent tariff on most European exports to the U.S. and formalizes a commitment to bring auto tariffs to the same level, while leaving the levies on Europe’s car industry punishingly high. Yet, somehow, the release of the deal’s framework text was met with grudging acceptance — and even relief — on the grounds that it was the best bargain Europe could hope for. Essentially, what began as a trade standoff ended in a lopsided pact formalizing America’s leverage over Europe. Then, before the ink had even dried, Washington drew a new battle line, threatening fresh tariffs that would strike at the core of the bloc’s digital sovereignty. This broadside exposes a deeper truth: Europe is adrift in a world where it no longer shapes the norm and stands increasingly vulnerable to American revisionism. This realization may be frightening, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had already laid out this vision last fall — that the U.S. must leverage Europe’s security dependence to rewrite the global economic order in its favor. Turnberry is simply the first full implementation of this strategy, and pressure will only mount from here. The deal itself is structurally skewed, front-loading a 15-percent asymmetric tariff in favor of U.S. industries and shielding American sectors from reciprocal obligations. Its bold promises — including $750 billion in U.S. energy exports and $600 billion in EU investment — are also unrealistic and deliberately designed to collapse under their own weight. So, when the EU inevitably falls short, the U.S. can then seize the opportunity to press for greater concessions on tech regulation and digital services. The real purpose isn’t compliance, it’s coercion. And while the fact that we’ve so far managed to avoid a full-blown trade war may appear to some as evidence of successful diplomacy, this reading overlooks the real cost of Brussels’s concessions: sharp economic contraction, political backlash and the normalization of bullying in international diplomacy. Europe is navigating a maze of interdependencies, and Washington knows exactly how to exploit that. As evidenced by Congressman Jim Jordan’s August visits to Brussels, London and Dublin, MAGA will now frame the EU’s digital regulation — on content moderation, data privacy and platform accountability — as violations of “free speech” and anti-American bias. This is more than a rhetorical ploy, it’s a calculated effort to destabilize Europe’s liberal democracies by amplifying fringe political actors, sowing division and undermining trust in centrist institutions. Beyond pushing back against tech standards, Washington is positioning itself to challenge Europe on the ideological legitimacy of its entire regulatory model. Thus, the battle over digital sovereignty will be cast in civilizational terms — free markets versus bureaucratic overreach, expression versus censorship, sovereignty versus globalism. And Europe’s far-right narrative of elite censorship will have the imprimatur of U.S. policy. These grievances will then likely merge with U.S. demands for greater burden-sharing on defense or security concessions on Ukraine. It’s also entirely possible the Trump administration will exploit divisions among member countries on digital sovereignty, tying reviews of America’s force posture to regulatory rollbacks, a retreat on digital taxes or alignment with its own tech standards.  Brussels needs to be prepared for the battles ahead. Thankfully, some of the consequences are already coming into focus: First, driven by anemic growth forecasts of 0.5 to 0.9 percent — particularly in export-heavy economies like Germany — the risk of a far-right surge across Europe is growing. This economic pain will translate into political volatility. Populist parties will frame Brussels as complicit in Washington’s coercion and incapable of defending national interests. And despite its ideological affinities with the U.S., Europe’s far right won’t have any qualms with turning on its ideological bedfellows in the White House. Germany’s Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally are already exploiting anger over the deal and are calling for a loosening of transatlantic ties.   Brussels needs to be prepared for the battles ahead. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Next, when it comes to security, the U.S.–EU decoupling that’s already in motion will only accelerate. France and Germany are currently reviving proposals for a European Security Council, accelerating cooperation under Permanent Structured Cooperation and weighing investment in a European Defense Fund. Public opinion is shifting too. Majorities in Germany and France now support greater autonomy in defense planning and procurement, with pluralities favoring a European army. Even staunchly Atlanticist Poland is moving away from reflexive alignment with Washington. Finally, there’s the fact that, sooner or later, markets will wake up to the implications of this global reordering. So far, they’ve largely shrugged it off, treating Turnberry as theater, and investors have priced in volatility without grasping the deeper structural shift underway. But if capital flows start reflecting the risk of permanent transatlantic divergence — on currency regimes, regulatory frameworks and trade access — the spiral could be swift. And unlike the 2008 financial crisis, the shock wouldn’t be easily sutured. Europe isn’t powerless here. It retains economic scale, regulatory clout and unused tools — but it must be prepared to use them. This means treating economic security like national security, and embedding defense autonomy, energy resilience and technological sovereignty into a unified strategic doctrine. It also means strengthening Europe’s defenses against asymmetric coercion. Brussels’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, a trade tool meant to counter economic blackmail by imposing targeted measures on U.S. service providers, was a step in the right direction — even if it ultimately wasn’t deployed. Now, the EU must also build legal firewalls against extraterritorial enforcement and deploy its regulatory power to actively shape global norms. Europe’s challenge isn’t to restore the old transatlantic bargain but to build a new one before the next crisis hits and Trump dictates the terms once more. If the bloc hesitates, it won’t get to choose at all.

BRUSSELS — The next obstacle to the trade deal between the European Union and the United States won’t come from the Oval Office — but rather from the second-biggest party in the European Parliament. The European Socialists have come out against the accord that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck with U.S. President Donald Trump in July. That will make her job of building the majority she needs to enact the tariff truce a tough one — and failure to do so could plunge the transatlantic trade relationship back into turmoil. “We firmly oppose the agreement,” Iratxe García Pérez, president of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) parliamentary group, told POLITICO.  The Socialists’ opposition imperils the EU’s efforts to present the pact as guarding transatlantic unity against Moscow. It also deepens a rift with von der Leyen’s center-right allies the European People’s Party (EPP) — who support the deal — which has in the past worked with the S&D to pursue a moderate agenda. The standoff comes just weeks after von der Leyen had to make long-term commitments on social spending to secure the support of the Socialists to win a high-stakes motion of no confidence. The S&D lost leverage in the 2024 European election, when an electoral shift made it possible for the EPP to pass measures with the support of political groups on the right of the political spectrum. As their presence in the Commission and in national governments has dwindled, the Socialists have become increasingly strident in their criticism of the EU executive and the EPP — and are eager to leverage their remaining political weight to extract political concessions. EXPLOITING WEAKNESS Since the transatlantic trade agreement was sealed at Trump’s golf resort in Turnberry, Brussels has faced charges that it surrendered to Washington and did not make use of the EU’s economic heft, as a market of 450 million people, to respond to Trump’s aggressive negotiating tactics. García Pérez comments came after Trump threatened last week to punish countries that impose digital rules and taxes that discriminate against American companies. She insisted the EU should make use of its toughest trade weapon, the Anti-Coercion Instrument, to hit back at Trump’s bullying.  “Trump will exploit any sign of weakness to escalate the trade war,” she added. García Pérez’s defiance followed criticism of the trade deal by Teresa Ribera, the top-ranking Socialist in von der Leyen’s Commission. Ribera, who oversees competition policy, told the Financial Times last Friday that the EU needed to be ready to walk away from the deal if Trump acts on his tech threats. And on Monday, European Council President António Costa — another Socialist — said he acknowledged “the frustration felt by many Europeans, who perceive the Union as having been too passive in shaping this summer’s developments on trade, relations with the U.S. and Ukraine.” European Council President António Costa — another Socialist — said he acknowledged “the frustration felt by many Europeans, who perceive the Union as having been too passive in shaping this summer’s developments on trade, relations with the U.S. and Ukraine.” | Rodrigo Antunes/EPA Costa, a former Portuguese premier who now represents the interests of EU governments, said in a speech in Slovenia that Washington’s attack on the EU over its tech regulations amounted to regulatory overreach and censorship. “Our partners — including the U.S. — must know that the EU will always defend its sovereignty, its citizens, its companies and its values,” Costa said. “Diplomacy should never be mistaken for complacency.” Under the deal, most EU exports are subject to an all-in 15 percent U.S. tariff. To complete its side of the bargain, the EU should pass legislation to abolish all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, including the 10 percent it charges on U.S. autos, and ease market access for some farm produce and seafood. “In the bigger picture, the Socialists have good reasons to oppose this deal, because it is very unclear what the rationale was for von der Leyen to give away the EU’s WTO orientation and these massive concessions for security guarantees that are nowhere in near sight,” said David Kleimann, a senior trade expert at the ODI Europe think tank in Brussels. Kleimann was referring to concerns that the agreement goes against global trade rules as enshrined at the World Trade Organization. UPHILL BATTLE The most immediate test for the deal will be when the Parliament weighs in on the legislation proposed by the Commission last week to scrap the tariffs on U.S. industrial goods — a prerequisite for Washington in turn to lower its tariffs on European autos to 15 percent from 27.5 percent. With autos the largest transatlantic export of the bloc’s largest economy, Germany, the stakes are high. The most immediate test for the deal will be when the Parliament weighs in on the legislation proposed by the Commission last week to scrap the tariffs on U.S. industrial goods — a prerequisite for Washington in turn to lower its tariffs on European autos to 15 percent from 27.5 percent. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images Bernd Lange, a German S&D lawmaker who chairs the Parliament’s trade committee, warned that Brussels must be ready to act fast if Washington fails to deliver on its pledge to reduce car tariffs — and especially if Trump moves against the EU’s regulatory sovereignty on digital or green rules. Lawmakers will get their first opportunity to vent their frustration when Sabine Weyand, the top official in the Commission’s trade department, testifies before Lange’s committee on Wednesday. Lange, who will be the lead lawmaker on the proposals, said that if the United States doesn’t reduce tariffs on European cars, “then we will not lower the 10 percent U.S. tariffs. That is clear.” To pass, the legislation would require a simple majority of votes cast. If von der Leyen can’t persuade the S&D group to back the trade deal, her party would, along with the moderate coalition allies that elected her to a second term, need the votes of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group and the far-right party Patriots for Europe to secure its passage. “The S&D has always been more critical of the United States trying to strong-arm the EU into following their position. They are generally more opposed than the transatlanticist EPP on the other side, which would want to keep this truce alive,” Kleimann added. The EPP, von der Leyen’s political family, broadly backs the deal but has also raised concerns. “I support the Commission in its efforts to create predictability in trade with one of our most important partners — but I have concerns about how the agreement is compatible with [World Trade Organization] rules, which I am in the process of analyzing now,” said Jörgen Warborn, the EPP’s trade policy lead. Koen Verhelst and Seb Starcevic contributed reporting. 

BRUSSELS — The ink is still drying on a leaders’ statement formalizing a tariff deal between the EU and the United States, and President Donald Trump is already threatening to tear it up.  In another punch against the EU, Trump threatened Monday to impose further tariffs on countries whose digital rules, in his view, discriminate against American companies.   “I put all Countries with Digital Taxes, Legislation, Rules, or Regulations, on notice that unless these discriminatory actions are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional Tariffs on that Country’s Exports to the U.S.A., and institute Export restrictions on our Highly Protected Technology and Chips,” he wrote on Truth Social. The Trump administration has fired shot after shot against the EU’s digital rule book — claiming that the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act, respectively, censor American citizens and unfairly target U.S. companies.   The European Commission was quick to stress its regulatory autonomy.  “It is the sovereign right of the EU and its member states to regulate economic activities on our territory, which are consistent with our democratic values,” the EU’s chief spokesperson Paula Pinho told reporters Tuesday.   Trump’s new threat, however, challenges the EU’s logic that a joint statement published with the U.S. last week provides industry with crucial predictability.  “This is a further indication that the so-called deal of July 27 does not bring security and stability,” said Bernd Lange, a lawmaker with the Socialists and Democrats who chairs the trade committee in the European Parliament.   As Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shook hands on the deal in Scotland at the end of July, many saw it as an act of surrender by the EU. Chiefly, the EU agreed to scrap tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods in exchange for a 15 percent baseline tariff, which would also apply to cars that now face a 27.5 percent levy.  This, Brussels argued at the time, was a price worth paying to shield the EU — and its regulatory autonomy — from future escalation from the mercurial Trump administration.  “I can only repeat, and stress how much we’ve worked to ensure that we are not touching in any way our legitimate digital regulation. That includes, of course, the Digital Markets Act, as well as the Digital Services Act, as well the digital services taxes of our member states,” a senior EU official told reporters last week after the EU executive unveiled its joint statement with the U.S.   Less than a week on, the EU is finding out the hard way that Trump’s commitments can quickly be overtaken by his ever-shifting priorities.   “Deals with the Trump administration simply do not create the kind of lasting certainty everyone is desperate for, because certainty, predictability and strict fidelity to treaties are not White House objectives,” said Dmitry Grozoubinski, a former trade diplomat and author of the book “Why Politicians Lie About Trade.” “Given the public interest in digital regulation, the suspicion of U.S. tech giants, and how quickly this extortion is coming after what was supposed to be a glorious trade peace across the Atlantic — this may be a bridge too far for Europe,” he added.   The Commission pushed back against that interpretation.   “We believe that this deal indeed has provided for predictability and stability,” Pinho told a news briefing.  RETALIATION MOJO   In the final stages of its negotiations with the Trump administration, Europe’s appetite to retaliate against Washington faded, with capitals desperate to keep Trump focused on ending the war in Ukraine.   “We prepared [countermeasures],” Sabine Weyand, the EU’s top trade official, told a panel at the European Forum Alpbach on Monday before Trump’s latest announcement. “But, of course, this requires you to be ready to accept the cost that is associated with countermeasures and to accept that is linked to further escalation. There was clearly no appetite for that. And, as I said, the overwhelming point was Ukraine and the U.S. security guarantees.”  Trump’s latest move could, however, put pressure once again on the EU executive and member countries to respond. One option would be to take countermeasures — which would impose tariffs on €93 billion in U.S. goods ranging from aircraft to autos, and from soybeans to Kentucky bourbon — out of the freezer.   Another — which some are already calling for — would be to deploy its Anti-Coercion Instrument. This “trade bazooka” foresees potentially broad action in response to trade blackmail. “In my opinion, this is clearly a case for the AC instrument,” said Lange.  Pinho, asked directly about the Anti-Coercion Instrument, declined to speculate.  UP NEXT   The EU’s weakness in negotiating with Trump contrasts with Beijing’s more aggressive strategy. Capitalizing on its near-monopoly on rare earths, China in April imposed export restrictions on the critical minerals — Trump earlier this month extended a tariff truce with China for another 90 days, setting the stage for broader negotiations between the world’s two biggest economies.  Its strategic weaknesses in sectors ranging from military to technology condemns the EU, however, to reactionary limbo in its dealings with the U.S.   On Wednesday, the Commission is expected to put forward its proposals to lift tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and cars.   According to the joint statement, the U.S. will lower its 27.5 percent tariffs on cars and automotive parts to the baseline 15 percent only after the EU proposes legislation to eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods. If the Commission goes ahead with the proposal, the tariff relief would apply retroactively from Aug. 1.  “We will proceed with the implementation of the framework agreement,” said Pinho. Sarah Wheaton contributed reporting.

The European Commission presented to EU countries on Wednesday a list of the concessions it is willing to make to the Donald Trump administration as well as a new list of goods it is going to slap with tariffs if negotiations fail, an EU official and an EU diplomat told POLITICO.  The dual-track approach allows the European Commission, which calls the shots on trade policy on behalf of the EU’s 27 member states, to get sufficient political backing, and enter into negotiations with Washington from a position of strength. By threatening extra retaliation in addition to measures that are currently suspended, it also adds pressure on Washington to get real on its professed willingness to negotiate with Brussels.  Potential offers to the U.S. listed in the so-called “term sheet” negotiated by the European Commission include boosting investments in energy. Some of the EU’s own regulations could also be eased.  As before, lowering duties on imported cars and the zero-for-zero mutual offer on industrial goods have not been taken off the table. Cooperating on China’s trade barriers and overproduction is another area where Brussels sees space for cooperation with Washington.   However, EU diplomats caution that any offer will be tightly constrained by internal divisions among member countries, some of whom are reluctant to be seen as yielding to U.S. pressure and others careful not to alienate one of the EU’s historical allies.  The briefing of European ambassadors was held in a restricted setting by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s most senior aide, Björn Seibert, and the Commission’s top trade official, Sabine Weyand, two EU diplomats said. The meeting is a crucial step for the Commission to keep the EU’s 27 countries on board while it navigates the 90 day pause that Trump announced on some U.S. tariffs. The EU’s response is also suspended, provisionally, until July 14.  The European Commission declined to comment on the measures. PUSHING FOR MORE  Alongside the offers, the bloc is still working on a response to the 25 percent tariffs on cars and the 10 percent tariff still applied to EU goods.  Despite prior expectation that Brussels would hit Washington in the domain of services, such as Big Tech or Wall Street, the Commission chose to stick with a more classic retaliation on goods in a bid not to escalate trade tensions with the Trump administration.  This might not be to the taste of all EU countries, with countries such as France and Belgium pushing the European Commission to use all the tools the bloc has at its disposal.  France has been one of the most outspoken countries on the need to respond robustly to U.S. tariffs, while it has also lobbied to spare its already hard-hit cognac producers. “The counter-measures must be applied to the entire spectrum, not just goods, but should also include all the instruments we have,” an Elysée official said. French President Emmanuel Macron himself last month said that the EU should consider using the EU’s so-called bazooka, the anti-coercion instrument.  Macron and von der Leyen are expected to discuss tariffs on Monday in Paris, on the sidelines of an event on science and research.  The Financial Times first reported on the new list of tariffs on goods.