Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Außenminister Wadephul sagt seine China-Reise kurzfristig ab. Ein Vorgang, der zeigt, wie sehr sich die Machtverhältnisse verschoben haben. Hans von der Burchard analysiert, wie China Deutschland die Grenzen aufzeigt, warum die EU zum Vermittler wird  und welche Folgen die Eskalation hat. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht Markus Frohnmaier, außenpolitischer Sprecher der AfD, über Pekings Rolle in der Welt, deutsche Interessen und warum er die Regierung für „hypermoralisch“ hält. Danach: Innenminister Alexander Dobrindt will Deutschland besser gegen Cyberangriffe wappnen und erlaubt künftig auch digitale Gegenschläge. Rixa Fürsen erklärt, wie schwierig das Konzept der Abwehr ist und warum Zuständigkeiten zwischen Bund, Ländern und Bundeswehr so unklar sind. Zum Schluss: Ein Blick auf die SPD, die in Bielefeld gegen den Kanzler und damit die eigene Regierung demonstriert. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

The International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded its U.S. growth forecast, while also lowering its outlook for the eurozone and China on the back of President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz.  The U.S. is now seen as growing by 1.8 percent this year, a 0.9 percentage point reduction from its January estimate, according to the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook, which is published twice a year. Growth forecasts for other major economies also were revised downwards: the eurozone saw growth knocked down by 0.2 percentage points and China by 0.6 percentage points.  The IMF’s latest forecast gives more ammunition to critics of Washtington’s trade policy who allege that the U.S. will be the biggest loser in a trade war. Mexico was the only large economy that saw a sharper downgrade, with a 1.7 percentage point negative revision for 2025.   The IMF pointed to how gauges of consumer, business and investor sentiment have all started to flash red since the U.S. administration launched its “Liberation Day” tariff package on April 2. “[S]entiment was optimistic at the beginning of the year but has recently shifted to a notably more pessimistic stance as uncertainty has taken hold and new tariffs have been announced,” reads the report.  The Fund has lowered its forecast for economic growth across all advanced economies to 1.4 percent this year, from 1.9 percent at its last quarterly forecast update in January. For the world at large, it now sees growth of only 2.8 percent this year, down from 3.3 three months ago. Despite the downgrades, the U.S. is still expected to outperform the eurozone. The currency area is expected to grow by 0.8 percent in 2025, and 1.2 percent in 2026. Germany, its largest economy, is seen stagnating once again this year, with growth expected to pick up to 0.9 percent in 2026. The IMF flags Berlin’s decision to loosen its fiscal rules, as well as a pick-up in wages, as helping to fuel growth next year.  In China, a combination of a downturn in its real estate market as well as domestic imbalances towards exports has contributed to its mounting economic difficulties. Tariffs have “disproportionately” hurt the Asian economy, according to the IMF, which notes that a rebalancing towards greater domestic consumer demand is stalling.  Beyond harm to individual economies, the multilateral lender also warns of a potential unravelling in the financial markets, which have stayed volatile since April 2. Major stock market indices, most of all in the U.S., are well below their pre-“Liberation Day” levels. They could go still lower. The dollar has also seen its value relative to other major currencies eroded, another red flag.  “The U.S. dollar would typically be expected to appreciate if financial conditions deteriorate sharply,” reads the report. “But the international monetary system could experience a sudden reset, with potentially major implications for the dollar as its main pillar.”   The lender warned of potential social consequences of the further unravelling of the economic order, with populations already smarting from the recent bout of inflation and the cost-of-living crisis that followed at risk of “polarization and social unrest.”

RIO DE JANEIRO — Keir Starmer is set to meet Xi Jinping for the first face-to-face talks between the Chinese president and a British prime minister in more than six years.  Their meeting, scheduled for Monday at the G20 summit in Brazil, comes as the U.K. attempts to take the chill off relations with Beijing that set in during the Conservatives’ time in power. The Labour chief said during his flight to Rio that he plans to have “serious, pragmatic discussions” with Xi, as he stressed just how important trade with China is. Donald Trump might have something to say about that, however. The returning U.S. president threatens to slap 60 percent tariffs on goods from China under his “America first” policy. Starmer, like much of the rest of the world, is weighing up what economic action to take if the Republican enacts those plans. Negotiating exceptions for Britain, reversing some of the impacts of Brexit by moving closer to the EU, and trying to rally trade with Beijing are all options. Before winning a landslide election in July, Starmer’s Labour Party pledged to pursue legal routes to describe China’s persecution of the Uyghur Muslims as “genocide.” That’s not the position Starmer takes today. En route to Brazil he told reporters: “Given the size of the economy, it is very important that we have a pragmatic and serious relationship — and that’s what I intend to pursue.”  Starmer will be the first U.K. PM to meet Xi since Theresa May’s February 2018 trip to Beijing. Rishi Sunak had planned a meeting in 2022 but the schedule was torn up as leaders held emergency meetings after a missile strike in NATO-member Poland near its border with Ukraine. Keir Starmer is planning to use the G20 summit to rally support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion as the conflict grinds toward its 1,000th day. | Mauro Pimentel/Getty Images During a recent peak in relations in 2015, David Cameron declared a “golden era” with China while PM at a time when the Conservatives were actively courting Beijing.  Relations later frayed under Boris Johnson, however, as Trump pressured Britain to purge Chinese firm Huawei from Britain’s 5G network. Given that the matter was one of national security, the U.K. sided with America, but the move clearly soured relations with China.  Trump may well want to make that relationship more awkward again. Elsewhere on the diplomatic front, Starmer is planning to use the G20 summit to rally support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion as the conflict grinds toward its 1,000th day. “There’s got to be full support for as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine,” the prime minister told reporters. Though he didn’t mention Trump, it’s clear allies are trying to do all they can before he reenters the White House, considering he’s cast doubt on U.S. support for Kyiv. At the G20, Starmer is expected to push Joe Biden for a $20 billion loan to Ukraine during his last weeks as president. The prime minister will also seek approval for Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles to target sites deep within Russia. Starmer declined to criticize German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin — in their first reported call in nearly two years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, conversely, likened the call to opening “Pandora’s box.” “It’s a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to,” Starmer said, adding: “I have no plans to speak to Putin.”

Chinese investment in Italy is “below potential” and should increase, Italian President Sergio Mattarella said on a visit to Beijing. Italy’s trade with China needs “re-balancing” between import and export, Mattarella told Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Friday, Sky Tg24 reported. Mattarella noted that the value of Italy-China trade doubled from 2016 to 2022 to €74 billion. Italy “cherishes” Chinese investment in the country and encourages Italian investment in China, which reached €15 billion in 2023, Mattarella said. “We also hope that Chinese investments can grow fast as these are below their potential,” the president said. Mattarella also met Chinese President Xi Jinping and National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji during his visit. The Italian president’s trip to China follows one by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the summer. It is “highly unusual” for two high-level visits to be taking place so close to each other, Mattarella told Zhao Leji. “This shows how important it is for us to develop even closer ties with China.”