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Friedrich Merz reist als Kanzler in die Türkei. Es wird ein Besuch zwischen
Realpolitik und Risiko. In Ankara trifft er Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, um über
Sicherheit und Migration zu sprechen. Ein Gespräch, das Kooperation und Konflikt
zugleich bedeutet; über Waffenlieferungen, Rechtsstaat und das Verhältnis zu
Russland. Die Analyse dazu von Gordon Repinski.
Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht Ines Schwerdtner, Parteichefin der
Linkspartei, über rote Linien und den Umgang mit der CDU. Sie erklärt, warum die
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Schuldenbremse mitreden will und wo sie sich klar von Friedrich Merz abgrenzt.
Zum Schluss analysiert Hans von der Burchard die Neuwahl in den Niederlanden:
Vier Parteien liegen Kopf an Kopf und alles läuft auf ein „Alle gegen
Wilders“-Szenario hinaus.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
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Tag - Turkish politics
The mayor of Istanbul’s Bayrampaşa district was taken into custody early
Saturday on charges including bribery, embezzlement and fraud, as Turkish
authorities continued a crackdown on the country’s opposition.
Mayor Hasan Mutlu, a member of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP),
was detained under an order issued Saturday morning for 48 individuals amid a
corruption investigation into the Bayrampaşa municipality, according to public
broadcaster TRT Haber. The Istanbul police reportedly raided 72 locations and
detained Mutlu and several of his deputies.
The politician confirmed his detention on X. “What happened is nothing more than
political operations and baseless slander,” Mutlu wrote.
Mutlu is the latest in a string of opposition officials to be arrested in recent
months in a clampdown on opposition to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
In August, İnan Güney, the mayor of Istanbul’s Beyoğlu district was taken into
custody for alleged corruption.
In March, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu — Erdogan’s top political rival — was
sent to prison on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group, despite
massive protests. A new trial against him began on Friday, where İmamoğlu faces
charges of falsifying his university degree.
Mutlu, Güney and İmamoğlu are all members of Turkey’s largest opposition party,
the social democratic CHP.
Haris Doukas is a member of the Eurocities Executive Committee and the mayor of
Athens. Vasil Terziev is the president of the B40 network and the mayor of
Sofia.
On a dry late August afternoon, we stood outside Silivri — the high-security
prison west of Istanbul, where Ekrem İmamoğlu, the elected leader of Europe’s
largest city, has been detained for months.
Behind us, Turkish civil society leaders held aloft banners; beside us were
colleagues from his municipal team; and around us were a quiet but resolute
crowd of supporters, including six other local leaders from large cities across
Europe.
It wasn’t the visit we had planned, but it was powerful all the same.
In that moment, what struck us most wasn’t just the absence of the man we had
traveled to see — and to whom national authorities had denied us access. It was
the presence of his values echoing from every voice that spoke.
Hope, we realized, isn’t incarcerated by prison walls. And everything we
witnessed only deepened our resolve to stand by our fellow city leaders and
defend local democracy.
What we heard in Istanbul wasn’t despair but moral strength. İmamoğlu’s
colleagues told us of how he remains engaged even behind bars, how he still asks
about city projects and encourages his team to stay the course, insisting that
the work of building a more inclusive, sustainable Istanbul continues.
He isn’t the only target. Dozens of opposition mayors in Turkey have been
arrested for dubious charges in recent months. Any local leader who dares to
govern differently, who poses a threat to the central government’s grip, will be
punished — that’s the message.
Istanbul is the country’s economic engine, and its democratic mandate is being
steadily eroded. But even under such immense government pressure, the Istanbul
Metropolitan Municipality continues to serve its people. Acting Mayor Nuri Aslan
told us how the city is still pushing forward with policies to improve life for
all its residents — more public transportation, support for women, migrant
integration and earthquake resilience.
We also met with İmamoğlu’s wife, Dilek, who has become a still yet powerful
voice for justice despite threats to her family. And her resilience reminded us
that political repression doesn’t just affect the individuals targeted but their
families too.
This visit wasn’t our first act of solidarity. Back in March, just days after
İmamoğlu’s arrest, over 80 European mayors joined a public declaration,
coordinated by Eurocities, calling for his release and for EU action. This
mission was built on that commitment.
So, why should this matter to Brussels?
Because Turkey remains an EU candidate country, which presupposes rule of law.
It’s also a crucial trading partner and a strategic neighbor. Turning a blind
eye to political repression at the bloc’s borders sends a dangerous signal — not
only to Ankara but to other regimes that are watching. The EU’s credibility as a
defender of democracy is at stake here.
Back in March, just days after İmamoğlu’s arrest, over 80 European mayors joined
a public declaration, coordinated by Eurocities, calling for his release and for
EU action. | Laura Guerrero/Barcelona City Council
And why should it matter to mayors across Europe?
Because city leaders aren’t just local administrators, they’re defenders of
democratic values. Throughout history, cities have been places of openness,
diversity and dialogue. That’s what makes them so threatening to authoritarian
regimes, which fear example not ideology.
Moreover, democracy doesn’t just disappear overnight. It begins with legal
harassment, budget cuts and disinformation. Then it escalates. We’ve seen it
before, and we’re seeing signs of it again — not just in Turkey but also
uncomfortably closer to home.
For example, Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony, who joined our delegation, faces
similar pressures in Hungary. Yet, he still came to Istanbul. Not for himself
but to show solidarity — because he understands democracy must be defended
beyond borders.
Nowadays, cities must become diplomatic actors in their own right. They can’t
wait for national governments to lead. And we’re inviting EU institutions to
join us in this fight.
Until now, their response has been weak at best — a bland statement here, a
half-hearted expression of concern there. Only the European Parliament and the
Committee of the Regions have spoken with any real clarity on the matter, but
they lack the tools to act. And for all its rhetoric about defending European
values, the European Commission seems unwilling to do so.
That’s why we’re calling for a meeting with the European Commissioner for
Enlargement to discuss how Turkey’s EU accession process and pre-accession funds
relate to this assault on democracy. We’re also asking that the European Council
put this case on its agenda.
Together, we can lift the bars erected to confine local democracy in Turkey —
and in Europe. Our commitment doesn’t end with this mission. We will continue to
advocate, organize and speak out. We owe it to İmamoğlu, and to every city
leader risking their freedom for their citizens.
Democracy begins locally. If we don’t defend it here, we risk losing it
everywhere.
TURKEY’S ERDOĞAN BETS BIG WITH HIGH-STAKES KURDISH GAMBLE
As the president’s traditional support wanes, he is seeking a risky deal with
the Kurds to buy a political lifeline. But is there too much mutual mistrust for
a deal?
By ELÇIN POYRAZLAR
Photo-illustrations by Tarini Sharma for POLITICO
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is making the biggest gamble of his
career to save his political skin, just as popular opinion — even in
traditionalist, conservative strongholds — swings sharply against him.
His goal? To bring the large Kurdish minority onto his side by ending Turkey’s
most intractable political and military conflict that has killed some 40,000
people over four decades and has brutally scarred national life.
His move? To give a place in Turkish politics to Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed
leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, an organization long
proscribed as terrorists by Ankara, the U.S. and EU.
It is a sign of Erdoğan’s plummeting fortunes that he is even contemplating such
a radical step to keep his grip over the NATO heavyweight of 85 million people.
But the Islamist populist knows this is his moment to try to consolidate his
position as president — potentially for life — or risk being wiped off the
political scene.
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Since suffering crushing defeats at the hands of the secular opposition in the
municipal elections of 2024 — most significantly in conservative bastions —
Erdoğan has made an increasingly desperate lurch toward full authoritarianism.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has been thrown in jail and the security services
have launched a nationwide crackdown to arrest opposition mayors. The allies who
supported Erdoğan on his rise to power have largely deserted him.
While the need for a new support base helps explain Erdoğan’s Kurdish gambit,
it’s a high-risk move with no guarantee of success. Mainstream Turkish opinion
is very wary of the PKK, and the Kurds themselves are extremely nervous about
trusting the Turkish authorities. This deal is far from an easy sell.
Some initial progress is expected on Friday with a first batch of PKK weapons to
be handed over in northern Iraq, probably in the predominantly Kurdish province
of Sulaymaniyah.
Erdoğan is widely seen as the engineer of the Kurdish rapprochement when his
regional diplomacy is also enjoying success. . | Mustafa Kamaci/Anadolu via
Getty Images
While publicly proclaiming the importance of his “terror-free Turkey” project
for reconciliation with the Kurds, Erdoğan is also showing he is wide awake to
the risks. He has conceded his project faces “sabotage” from within Turkey, and
from within the ranks of the PKK.
Sensing some of the potential hostility to his PKK deal, in an address to
parliament on Wednesday, the president was careful to pre-empt any attacks from
political adversaries that an accord could dishonor veterans or other casualties
of the conflict.
“Nowhere in the efforts for a terror-free Turkey is there, nor can there be, a
step that will tarnish the memory of our martyrs or injure their spirits,” he
said. “Guided by the values for which our martyrs made their sacrifices, God
willing, we are saving Turkey from a half-century-long calamity and completely
removing this bloody shackle that has been placed upon our country.”
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The jailed Öcalan, speaking in his first video since 1999, said on Wednesday
that the PKK movement and its previous quest for a separate Kurdish nation-state
were now at an end, as its core demand — the recognition of Kurdish existence —
has been met.
“Existence has been recognized and therefore the primary objective has been
achieved. In this sense, it is outdated … This is a voluntary transition from
the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law. This is
not a loss, but should be seen as a historic achievement,” he said in his video.
ISLAND PRISON
No issue in Turkish politics is more bitter than the Kurdish conflict. Some
Kurds describe themselves as the most numerous stateless people in the world —
there are millions in neighboring Iraq, Iran and Syria, and in Turkey they
account for approximately 15 to 20 percent of the population.
Many Kurds say they have been denied their rights since the formation of the
Turkish republic just over a century ago and have long been oppressed.
In turn, many Turks see the PKK, which long waged war against the Turkish state,
as a terrorist group — and its leader Öcalan, who has been confined to a prison
island all this century, as a murderer.
Given the explosive range of feelings about Öcalan, it is remarkable that such a
personality will prove so central to securing Erdoğan’s deal.
Öcalan, center, calls on the organization to disarm, in a video recorded in
prison and published Wednesday. | Tunahan Turhan/LightRocket via Getty Images
Known as “Apo,” he is serving a life sentence for treason and separatism on the
island of
İmralı in the Sea of Marmara. Notorious in part due to the movie “Midnight
Express,”
İmralı is referred to as “Turkey’s Alcatraz” and has held Öcalan, for several
years as its sole inmate, since 1999.
He is no longer alone. During the peace process between 2013 and 2015, a number
of PKK prisoners were transferred to İmralı to serve as part of Öcalan’s
unofficial secretariat.
While the Kurdish policy of Erdoğan and his AK Party has oscillated between
crackdowns and conciliation during their 22 years in power, Turkey’s hard-line
nationalists have long denounced the PKK as a threat and had little time for
Kurdish rights.
Perhaps the most outspoken enemy of Öcalan has been a veteran politician called
Devlet Bahçeli, an ultranationalist leader, who is now Erdoğan’s main ally,
helping him pad out his parliamentary majority.
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In 2007, Bahçeli had even called for Öcalan to be executed. Ten years ago he
lashed out at Erdoğan over one of his sporadic attempts to negotiate with the
PKK.
But last October, in one of the sudden shake-ups that intermittently convulse
politics in Turkey, Bahçeli suggested Öcalan could address parliament — as long
as he dissolved the PKK.
The significance of the volte-face can hardly be overstated — it was almost as
if Benjamin Netanyahu had extended an invitation to Hamas — and behind it all
was Erdoğan.
The effect was dramatic. On Feb. 27, Öcalan sent a public message from his
prison, calling for the PKK to give up its arms and terminate itself.
Öcalan credited both Bahçeli’s call, and Erdoğan’s willpower, for helping
“create an environment” for the group to disarm. “I take on the historical
responsibility of this call,” he added. “Convene your congress and make a
decision: All groups must lay down their arms and the PKK must dissolve
itself,” he added.
The PKK Congress duly declared the end of the armed struggle on May 12, adding
the group had “fulfilled its historical mission” and that, as Öcalan had
instructed, “all activities conducted under the PKK name have therefore been
concluded.”
The statement was welcomed in Ankara, but so far, the gambit by Bahçeli and
Erdoğan has yet to fully pay off. There is clearly more work to do. And sure
enough, after the watershed statement from Öcalan in February, the prisoner
gained more staff on İmralı. According to politicians from the pro-Kurdish DEM
Party who spoke to POLITICO, three more prisoners were sent to expand the team
available for striking a grand bargain.
LITTLE TRUST
Nurcan Baysal, a Kurdish human rights campaigner and author of the book “We
Exist: Being Kurdish In Turkey,” said many Kurds remained wary of the
government.
“The government is presenting this as a ‘terror-free Turkey’ process and is
trying to limit it to just the PKK laying down its weapons and dissolving
itself. This is not peace!” she told POLITICO.
Baysal said Öcalan’s declaration in February to dissolve the PKK was also met
with disappointment among Kurds because he didn’t say anything about the Kurds’
cultural, linguistic, administrative rights and freedoms.
Öcalan, flanked by masked officers on a flight from Kenya to Turkey, in 1999. |
Hurriyet Ho via Getty Images
“This is felt in all Kurdish cities. There is not the slightest enthusiasm about
the process. A serious reason for this is that the Kurds do not trust
[Erdoğan’s] AK Party government,” she continued.
This mutual mistrust is partially the legacy of the failed initiatives of the
past, and the fact that Erdoğan’s deal comes amid a major clampdown on the
opposition.
İpek Özbey, a political commentator for the secularist channel Sözcü TV,
reckoned the Turkish government’s apparent moves toward a Kurdish rapprochement
were neither sincere nor promising.
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“We cannot talk about democracy in an environment where elected officials are in
prison … and the independence of the judiciary is so much under discussion,” she
said. “If there is no democracy, how will we democratize?”
During the reporting of this article, several government-allied figures also
made clear their unease with Erdoğan’s Kurdish initiative, describing the issue
as explosive or signaling their own lack of belief in the process, but declined
to talk on the record.
ONLY ERDOĞAN
From the government camp, Harun Armağan, the AK Party’s vice chair of foreign
affairs, conceded that Turkish public opinion remained cautious about the PKK
deal, but cast Erdoğan as the only man who could pull it off.
He told POLITICO that the PKK reached the stage of laying down arms 10 years ago
but “due to changing dynamics in Syria [where allied Kurdish fighters were on
the rise], they thought investing in war rather than peace would put them in a
more advantageous position.
“Ten years later, they have realized how gravely mistaken that was,” Armağan
continued. “Whether the PKK will truly disarm and dismantle itself is something
we will all see together … Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the only leader in Türkiye
who could initiate such a process.”
Erdoğan has already served three terms as president. To remain in office he may
need to change the constitution. | Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“The only promise made by the government is to completely rid Türkiye of
terrorism and to build a future in which all 85 million citizens can live in
peace, prosperity, and freedom to the fullest,” he added.
Erdoğan is indeed widely seen as the engineer of the Kurdish rapprochement when
his regional diplomacy is also enjoying success.
He has been hailed by U.S. President Donald Trump as the main winner from the
fall of Bashar Assad in Syria, where the new government has strong ties to
Ankara. Erdoğan is trying to take advantage of his clout by severing ties
between Syrian Kurdish groups and the PKK.
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Baysal, the Kurdish human rights campaigner, reckoned the change of events in
Syria is the main reason why the Turkish government initiated its Kurdish
outreach.
But Armağan, the AK Party official, insisted the two processes were distinct.
“This [Syrian] process is entirely different from our own process of eliminating
terrorism,” he said.
“The Syrian government has already called on all armed groups to join a central
army, and the SDF [a prominent Syrian Kurdish group] has signed an agreement to
this effect. These are promising developments,” he said.
PRESIDENT FOR LIFE
Some observers think Erdoğan, a formidable political operator, is using the
Kurdish process inside and outside the country to extend his stay in power,
trying to recruit Kurdish parliamentarians into his camp.
That’s certainly the view of DEM Party Group Deputy Chair Sezai Temelli.
But he’s cautious about whether it will work, given broader democratic
backsliding. He argued the arrest of Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s rival,
was hurting this fragile process and that the “Kurdish democratic solution and
the Turkish democratization process have a symbiotic relationship.”
He added he would not be surprised to see Erdoğan seeking to capitalize on the
process to stay in power, but noted that the CHP, Turkey’s main opposition
party, had also pledged to resolve the Kurdish issue if it wins the next
election.
No issue in Turkish politics is more bitter than the Kurdish conflict. Some
Kurds describe themselves as the most numerous stateless people in the world. |
Tunahan Turhan/LightRocket via Getty Images
“‘Who is not using it? Some use it [the Kurdish issue] to come to power, some
use it to stay in power,” Temelli said. “But we say this could only be solved
independently of election and power calculations.”
Erdoğan has already served three terms as president. To remain in office he may
need to change the constitution.
Despite the support of Bahçeli, the president’s coalition does not have a
sufficient majority for constitutional change so Erdoğan may be counting on the
support of Kurdish members of parliament.
He has already started speaking openly about a new constitution to replace
Turkey’s 1980 charter, which was drawn up by a military regime after a bloody
coup.
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“Türkiye for the first time in its history, has a real opportunity to draft its
first civilian constitution. This is a significant opportunity for all of us to
build a more prosperous, just, and secure country,” Armağan said.
Not everybody agrees. Some look back at past constitutional changes under
Erdoğan and say the main purpose of further revision to the charter would be, as
in the past, to further the president’s political ambitions.
Soner Çağaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Erdoğan
was acting like a “parallel computer,” executing opposing political strategies —
cracking down on the main opposition, while reaching out to the Kurds whose
support he needs to stay in office — without the two competing policies tripping
over each other.
“He will do anything to get one more term as president and then basically
install himself as president for life,” Çağaptay told POLITICO.
Erdoğan’s Kurdish gambit is a high-risk move with no guarantee of success. |
Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
But Baysal observed not everything relied on Erdoğan’s ambitions.
“Erdoğan is a politician who has the potential to use every issue for his own
benefit, and he will not hesitate to instrumentalize the Kurdish issue. He will
definitely want to use this to extend his presidency,” she said.
But it is not just the president who will decide, she said. Ultimately, whether
Turkey’s tragic Kurdish conflict is consigned to history — and whether Erdoğan
reaps the benefit — will depend in large part on the Kurds themselves.
“I think the real issue here is not whether he wants it,” said Baysal, referring
to Erdoğan, “but whether the Kurds want it.”
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A Swedish reporter detained in Turkey could be jailed for 12 years if convicted
of insulting the country’s president and on terrorism charges, his employer said
Wednesday.
Joakim Medin, a journalist for Swedish newspaper Dagens ETC, was arrested upon
arriving in Turkey last month to cover nationwide protests that erupted after
the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a popular opposition leader and
primary challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Medin has been charged with insulting the president, a crime in Turkey that
carries a three-year prison sentence, and with membership in the PKK Kurdish
militant group, which Istanbul designates as a terrorist organization. The
latter charge carries a nine-year prison sentence.
“I can only repeat that he is a journalist who has done journalism,” Dagens ETC
Editor-in-chief Andreas Gustavsson said. “Joakim is not a criminal, definitely
not some kind of terrorist.”
Gustavsson argued that Turkey was “trying to claim that all the journalistic
work that Joakim Medin has produced about Turkey is terrorism.”
“This is of course an absurd accusation,” he said.
Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said earlier this month that
she had raised Medin’s case with her Turkish counterpart, and called for him to
be allowed to “come home.”
Relations between Sweden and Turkey have previously been rocky, with Ankara
initially refusing to ratify Stockholm’s bid to join NATO over, among other
things, the presence of Kurdish groups in the Nordic country.
Turkey has been criticized by human rights observers and the European Union for
increasingly repressive practices, including imprisoning journalists and
stifling political dissent.
Another journalist, the BBC’s Mark Lowen, was arrested and deported from Turkey
last month for “being a threat to public order.”
Medin has been arrested before. In 2015 he was jailed for a week in Syria, where
he was working as a journalist, before a Kurdish group reportedly negotiated his
release.
His trial for insulting Erdoğan will take place on April 30.
Istanbul’s jailed Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the top rival to Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, said his lawyer had also been arrested on false pretenses.
“There is no end to lies or slander … This time, my lawyer Mehmet Pehlivan was
detained on fictitious grounds,” İmamoğlu wrote late Thursday night.
“As if the coup against democracy was not enough, they cannot tolerate the
victims of this coup defending themselves. They want to add a legal coup to the
coup against democracy. The evil that a handful of incompetent people are
inflicting on our country is growing. Release my lawyer immediately,” he added.
According to Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, Pehlivan was taken to a police
station where individuals are processed following their arrest. No formal
charges were immediately announced.
İmamoğlu, widely regarded as the main political rival to longtime ruler Erdoğan,
was initially arrested on March 19 and then formally detained by Turkish
authorities on March 23 on corruption charges pending trial.
His arrest sparked massive protests across the country, with critics denouncing
it as a politically motivated “coup.” Turkish authorities have arrested nearly
1,900 people since demonstrations began following İmamoğlu’s initial detention.
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Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor and the main political rival of Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been arrested. So what is Europe doing about
it? Staying pretty quiet, it seems. Mass protests are breaking out across Turkey
but Brussels is keeping its counsel.
In this episode Sarah Wheaton speaks with Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at
the Brookings Institution and a former journalist in Turkey, about what’s really
driving Erdoğan’s shift toward authoritarianism and how Europe is responding —
especially with a view to Turkey’s growing importance for European security.
But Europe’s focus isn’t all on defense. We also examine some of the EU’s
overlooked policy changes, from food and textile waste to agriculture and
medicine shortages. Sarah is joined by Politico’s experts on sustainability,
agriculture and health — Marianne Gros, Bartosz Brzeziński and Rory O’Neill —
for an insightful dive into what’s going on behind the scenes.
The European Commission on Monday urged Ankara to “uphold democratic values,” as
Turkish authorities escalate a crackdown against the opposition and free media.
Popular opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested Sunday on corruption
charges and booted out of his office as Istanbul mayor. Protests have now roiled
Turkey for nearly a week, since President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s police first
detained İmamoğlu, and authorities have locked up more than a thousand
demonstrators and detained journalists.
“The arrest of the mayor İmamoğlu and the protesters give rise to the questions
regarding Turkey’s adherence to its long-established democratic traditions,”
said Commission spokesperson Guillaume Mercier.
“As a Council of Europe [the international human rights organization] member and
EU candidate, Turkey must uphold democratic values. The rights of elected
officials as well as right of peaceful demonstration need to be fully
respected,” he added.
However, the spokesperson said that at this stage he “will not speculate on
possible cancellations” of high-level dialogues between the EU and Turkey
scheduled for April.
İmamoğlu, a highly popular secularist who was widely viewed as a contender to
oust Erdoğan, was on Monday officially nominated as a presidential candidate by
opposition — despite being jailed on Sunday.
Turkish police on Monday morning detained 10 journalists including an Agence
France-Presse photographer, the French news agency said.
The new detentions come amid a major crackdown by Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan’s authorities, which included the arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem
İmamoğlu, a highly popular opposition party figure.
According to the Media and Law Studies Association, which provides legal support
for journalists in Turkey, the journalists were arrested due to their coverage
of protests in Istanbul and elsewhere against the jailing of İmamoğlu.
“At this stage, we prefer not to make any further comments,” AFP told POLITICO.
İmamoğlu, a highly popular secularist, has been seen as a contender to succeed
the Islamist Erdoğan. He has been officially nominated as a presidential
candidate by the opposition Republican People’s Party for the next elections,
which are currently expected in 2028.
However, his university diploma was annulled Tuesday, which would rule him out
as a candidate, and he was subsequently detained by authorities Wednesday,
before being formally arrested Sunday.
İmamoğlu’s arrest has sparked outrage among Turkish civil society and
international partners, with France’s foreign ministry denouncing it as “a
serious attack on democracy.”
Since his initial detention, tens of thousands of supporters have taken to the
streets in more than a dozen cities, sometimes clashing with riot police and
facing water cannons, and hundreds have been arrested.
AFP is one of the world’s largest news agencies, providing news wires, pictures
and videos to clients, including media outlets, companies and public
institutions.
While its statutes guarantee editorial independence, the French state plays a
key role in its funding and three of its board members are appointed by the
government.
Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has spent years eroding democracy,
stifling dissent and purging the country’s army and civil service. Now, it looks
as though he’s chosen this geopolitical moment to bury the legacy of Mustafa
Kemal Atatürk, the secular founder of the Republic of Turkey.
How else to interpret the Islamist populist’s moves against the secular
Republican People’s Party (CHP), which was founded by Atatürk, and the
incarceration of the party’s popular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu — an opponent
with a real chance of winning the next presidential election?
Erdoğan’s political rivals have little doubt this is exactly what the man who
would be caliph is aiming to do — ditch what’s left of Turkey’s democracy by
neutralizing the country’s main opposition and shift to full-bore autocracy.
As hundreds of police officers converged outside his home last week, İmamoğlu
video-messaged his supporters: “We are up against tyranny, but I will not be
discouraged,” he said.
His detention came just a day after authorities shabbily revoked his university
diploma — a move aimed to disqualify him as an electoral contender, as Turkish
law requires presidential candidates to be university graduates. However, since
formally removed from office, İmamoğlu still appears poised to win his party’s
primary on Sunday to become Erdoğan’s main challenger in the next election.
From one perspective, the timing of his arrest was curious: Stripping İmamoğlu
of his university credentials would have been sufficient to exclude him from
running and, anyway, the presidential election isn’t due until 2028 — although
there’s been chatter it could come sooner.
So, why move against him now and launch the arrests of 106 others, including
officials from İmamoğlu’s CHP?
Some argue Erdoğan didn’t want to wait and allow the Istanbul mayor’s candidacy
the opportunity to gain more steam. But Gönül Tol, author of “Erdoğan’s War: A
Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria,” suspects the explanation lies in
what’s happening beyond Turkey’s borders: The Turkish leader likely felt
emboldened by the unfolding geopolitical shift toward autocracy, and so felt
this was an auspicious moment to strike.
“[U.S. President Donald] Trump’s anti-democratic actions at home have fueled a
global climate where autocrats elsewhere feel empowered to further crush
dissent,” she said.
Trump, who regularly calls for his political opponents to be locked up, is
hardly likely to lecture Erdoğan, publicly or privately, over İmamoğlu’s
incarceration. And in an interview with the MAGA-loyal Tucker Carlson last week,
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff described a recent phone conversation
between the two leaders as “great” and “transformational.”
So, why move against him now and launch the arrests of 106 others, including
officials from İmamoğlu’s CHP? | Yasin Akgul/Getty Images
Admittedly, that was before İmamoğlu’s arrest, but the U.S. president has hardly
taken pause himself, continuously striking at political foes since his
inauguration. Visiting the U.S. Justice Department last week, he called his
adversaries “scum,” “savages” and “Marxists,” before adding they’re “deranged”
and “thugs” for good measure. It’s all in keeping with the vow of retribution he
took at his first official campaign rally in Texas.
So, of course, Erdoğan would harbor no worries as to Trump’s disapproval. The
two have lavished priase on each other for years, and the Turkish leader has
said he supports his American counterpart’s peace initiative in Ukraine — no
doubt music to Trump’s ears.
Erdoğan isn’t alone among the once embattled autocrats — and would-be autocrats
— sniffing the change in the geopolitical air, and reckoning they’re on the cusp
of a new era, able to erase the rules and norms of old and replace them with
ones more to their liking. It’s influencing their behavior as they look to each
other for inspiration and new ideas for running their respective countries —
whether it be weaponizing policies affecting sexual minorities, scapegoating
migrants, sharpening attacks on independent media, transforming public
broadcasters into government mouthpieces or just closing them down.
And seemingly, they’re ready to giving each other a helping hand too. As Turkish
authorities banned public gatherings and restricted public access to social
media, Trump’s “best buddy” Elon Musk suspended Turkish opposition accounts on
his platform.
The organizing principles once again seem to be that might is right and “great”
leaders know best, as the era of liberal technocrats — which, of course, had its
own problems — gives way to a new era of strongmen, utterly brazen in shaking
off any restraints.
At times these strongman appear to be in an almost chummy rivalry, competing to
be the most blatantly illiberal they can be. And in this friendly competition,
Erdoğan is this week’s clear winner.
At the most recent Munich Security Summit, there was desperate effort to put on
a brave face before the shifting tide. After the initial shock of U.S. Vice
President JD Vance’s speech, which made no bones about stipulating Europe dance
to the illiberal ideological tunes of his boss, there was an outward effort to
carry on as if nothing had happened.
But on the margins, those opposed to illiberalism didn’t disguise their alarm.
And one side-event saw liberal Scandinavian diplomats debating a rather
disturbing question: Who will be on the winning side of history?
They didn’t have an answer — it looks like Erdoğan thinks he does.