Tag - Nuclear Deal

Inside an exiled prince’s plan for regime change in Iran
LONDON — Reza Pahlavi was in the United States as a student in 1979 when his father, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in a revolution. He has not set foot inside Iran since, though his monarchist supporters have never stopped believing that one day their “crown prince” will return.  As anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people, despite an internet blackout and an increasingly brutal crackdown, that day may just be nearing.   Pahlavi’s name is on the lips of many protesters, who chant that they want the “shah” back. Even his critics — and there are plenty who oppose a return of the monarchy — now concede that Pahlavi may prove to be the only figure with the profile required to oversee a transition.  The global implications of the end of the Islamic Republic and its replacement with a pro-Western democratic government would be profound, touching everything from the Gaza crisis to the wars in Ukraine and Yemen, to the oil market.  Over the course of three interviews in the past 12 months in London, Paris and online, Pahlavi told POLITICO how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be overthrown. He set out the steps needed to end half a century of religious dictatorship and outlined his own proposal to lead a transition to secular democracy. Nothing is guaranteed, and even Pahlavi’s team cannot be sure that this current wave of protests will take down the regime, never mind bring him to power. But if it does, the following is an account of Pahlavi’s roadmap for revolution and his blueprint for a democratic future.  POPULAR UPRISING  Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran, and in his interview with POLITICO last February he made it clear he wanted foreign powers to focus on supporting Iranians to move against their rulers rather than intervening militarily from the outside.  “People are already on the streets with no help. The economic situation is to a point where our currency devaluation, salaries can’t be paid, people can’t even afford a kilo of potatoes, never mind meat,” he said. “We need more and more sustained protests.” Over the past two weeks, the spiraling cost of living and economic mismanagement have indeed helped fuel the protest wave. The biggest rallies in years have filled the streets, despite attempts by the authorities to intimidate opponents through violence and by cutting off communications. Pahlavi has sought to encourage foreign financial support for workers who will disrupt the state by going on strike. He also called for more Starlink internet terminals to be shipped into Iran, in defiance of a ban, to make it harder for the regime to stop dissidents from communicating and coordinating their opposition. Amid the latest internet shutdowns, Starlink has provided the opposition movements with a vital lifeline. As the protests gathered pace last week, Pahlavi stepped up his own stream of social media posts and videos, which gain many millions of views, encouraging people onto the streets. He started by calling for demonstrations to begin at 8 p.m. local time, then urged protesters to start earlier and occupy city centers for longer. His supporters say these appeals are helping steer the protest movement. Reza Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran. | Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA The security forces have brutally crushed many of these gatherings. The Norway-based Iranian Human Rights group puts the number of dead at 648, while estimating that more than 10,000 people have been arrested. It’s almost impossible to know how widely Pahlavi’s message is permeating nationwide, but footage inside Iran suggests the exiled prince’s words are gaining some traction with demonstrators, with increasing images of the pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag appearing at protests, and crowds chanting “javid shah” — the eternal shah. DEFECTORS Understandably, given his family history, Pahlavi has made a study of revolutions and draws on the collapse of the Soviet Union to understand how the Islamic Republic can be overthrown. In Romania and Czechoslovakia, he said, what was required to end Communism was ultimately “maximum defections” among people inside the ruling elites, military and security services who did not want to “go down with the sinking ship.”  “I don’t think there will ever be a successful civil disobedience movement without the tacit collaboration or non-intervention of the military,” he said during an interview last February.  There are multiple layers to Iran’s machinery of repression, including the hated Basij militia, but the most powerful and feared part of its security apparatus is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pahlavi argued that top IRGC commanders who are “lining their pockets” — and would remain loyal to Khamenei — did not represent the bulk of the organization’s operatives, many of whom “can’t pay rent and have to take a second job at the end of their shift.”  “They’re ultimately at some point contemplating their children are in the streets protesting … and resisting the regime. And it’s their children they’re called on to shoot. How long is that tenable?” Pahlavi’s offer to those defecting is that they will be granted an amnesty once the regime has fallen. He argues that most of the people currently working in the government and military will need to remain in their roles to provide stability once Khamenei has been thrown out, in order to avoid hollowing out the administration and creating a vacuum — as happened after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.  Only the hardline officials at the top of the regime in Tehran should expect to face punishment.  In June, Pahlavi announced he and his team were setting up a secure portal for defectors to register their support for overthrowing the regime, offering an amnesty to those who sign up and help support a popular uprising. By July, he told POLITICO, 50,000 apparent regime defectors had used the system.  His team are now wary of making claims regarding the total number of defectors, beyond saying “tens of thousands” have registered. These have to be verified, and any regime trolls or spies rooted out. But Pahlavi’s allies say a large number of new defectors made contact via the portal as the protests gathered pace in recent days.  REGIME CHANGE In his conversations with POLITICO last year, Pahlavi insisted he didn’t want the United States or Israel to get involved directly and drive out the supreme leader and his lieutenants. He always said the regime would be destroyed by a combination of fracturing from within and pressure from popular unrest.  He’s also been critical of the reluctance of European governments to challenge the regime and of their preference to continue diplomatic efforts, which he has described as appeasement. European powers, especially France, Germany and the U.K., have historically had a significant role in managing the West’s relations with Iran, notably in designing the 2015 nuclear deal that sought to limit Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.  But Pahlavi’s allies want more support and vocal condemnation from Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. He ordered American military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, as part of Israel’s 12-day war, action that many analysts and Pahlavi’s team agree leaves the clerical elite and its vast security apparatus weaker than ever.  U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. | Pool photo by Bonnie Cash via EPA Pahlavi remains in close contact with members of the Trump administration, as well as other governments including in Germany, France and the U.K. He has met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio several times and said he regards him as “the most astute and understanding” holder of that office when it comes to Iran since the 1979 revolution.  In recent days Trump has escalated his threats to intervene, including potentially through more military action if Iran’s rulers continue their crackdown and kill large numbers of protesters.  On the weekend Pahlavi urged Trump to follow through. “Mr President,” he posted on X Sunday. “Your words of solidarity have given Iranians the strength to fight for freedom,” he said. “Help them liberate themselves and Make Iran Great Again!” THE CARETAKER KING  In June Pahlavi announced he was ready to replace Khamenei’s administration to lead the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.   “Once the regime collapses, we have to have a transitional government as quickly as possible,” he told POLITICO last year. He proposed that a constitutional conference should be held among Iranian representatives to devise a new settlement, to be ratified by the people in a referendum.  The day after that referendum is held, he told POLITICO in February, “that’s the end of my mission in life.”  Asked if he wanted to see a monarchy restored, he said in June: “Democratic options should be on the table. I’m not going to be the one to decide that. My role however is to make sure that no voice is left behind. That all opinions should have the chance to argue their case — it doesn’t matter if they are republicans or monarchists, it doesn’t matter if they’re on the left of center or the right.”  One option he hasn’t apparently excluded might be to restore a permanent monarchy, with a democratically elected government serving in his name.  Pahlavi says he has three clear principles for establishing a new democracy: protecting Iran’s territorial integrity; a secular democratic system that separates religion from the government; and “every principle of human rights incorporated into our laws.” He confirmed to POLITICO that this would include equality and protection against discrimination for all citizens, regardless of their sexual or religious orientation.  COME-BACK CAPITALISM  Over the past year, Pahlavi has been touring Western capitals meeting politicians as well as senior business figures and investors from the world of banking and finance. Iran is a major OPEC oil producer and has the second biggest reserves of natural gas in the world, “which could supply Europe for a long time to come,” he said.  “Iran is the most untapped reserve for foreign investment,” Pahlavi said in February. “If Silicon Valley was to commit for a $100 billion investment, you could imagine what sort of impact that could have. The sky is the limit.”  What he wants to bring about, he says, is a “democratic culture” — even more than any specific laws that stipulate forms of democratic government. He pointed to Iran’s past under the Pahlavi monarchy, saying his grandfather remains a respected figure as a modernizer.  “If it becomes an issue of the family, my grandfather today is the most revered political figure in the architect of modern Iran,” he said in February. “Every chant of the streets of ‘god bless his soul.’ These are the actual slogans people chant on the street as they enter or exit a soccer stadium. Why? Because the intent was patriotic, helping Iran come out of the dark ages. There was no aspect of secular modern institutions from a postal system to a modern army to education which was in the hands of the clerics.”   Pahlavi’s father, the shah, brought in an era of industrialization and economic improvement alongside greater freedom for women, he said. “This is where the Gen Z of Iran is,” he said. “Regardless of whether I play a direct role or not, Iranians are coming out of the tunnel.”  Conversely, many Iranians still associate his father’s regime with out-of-touch elites and the notorious Savak secret police, whose brutality helped fuel the 1979 revolution. NOT SO FAST  Nobody can be sure what happens next in Iran. It may still come down to Trump and perhaps Israel.  Anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities across the country of 90 million people. | Neil Hall/EPA Plenty of experts don’t believe the regime is finished, though it is clearly weakened. Even if the protests do result in change, many say it seems more likely that the regime will use a mixture of fear tactics and adaptation to protect itself rather than collapse or be toppled completely.  While reports suggest young people have led the protests and appear to have grown in confidence, recent days have seen a more ferocious regime response, with accounts of hospitals being overwhelmed with shooting victims. The demonstrations could still be snuffed out by a regime with a capacity for violence.  The Iranian opposition remains hugely fragmented, with many leading activists in prison. The substantial diaspora has struggled to find a unity of voice, though Pahlavi tried last year to bring more people on board with his own movement.  Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iran should do better than reviving a “failed” monarchy. She added she was unsure how wide Pahlavi’s support really was inside the country. Independent, reliable polling is hard to find and memories of the darker side of the shah’s era run deep. But the exiled prince’s advantage now may be that there is no better option to oversee the collapse of the clerics and map out what comes next. “Pahlavi has name recognition and there is no other clear individual to turn to,” Vakil said. “People are willing to listen to his comments calling on them to go out in the streets.”
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Trump invites populist Slovak leader Fico to FIFA World Cup
Slovakia’s populist Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that U.S. President Donald Trump has invited him to America to sign a nuclear power deal — and attend the FIFA World Cup next summer. “It is an honor for me that yesterday the special envoy of U.S. President D. Trump handed me a written invitation to visit the United States and meet with him,” Fico said in a social media post on Monday. “Together, we aim to support the signing of an intergovernmental agreement between the Slovak Republic and the United States on cooperation in nuclear energy and to exchange views on the most pressing global issues,” he added. “The timeframe of my visit will coincide with the celebrations of the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence and the hosting of the FIFA World Cup.” The invitation comes on the heels of the Dec. 4 publication of the U.S. National Security Strategy, which caused an uproar in Europe for suggesting that the Trump administration will support ideologically aligned European patriotic parties, such as Fico’s leftist-populist and nationalist Smer. Late last week, U.S. Ambassador to France Charles Kushner met with senior figures from that country’s far-right opposition National Rally, while U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah Rogers met with opposition far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party politician Markus Frohnmaier in Washington. The letter from Trump, dated Dec. 11, was given to Fico by U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary James Danly, who was in Bratislava this week. “Our relationship means a great deal to me and reflects the strength of the tremendous bond between the United States of America and Slovakia. Our countries have never been closer. I am confident that, by continuing to work together, we will achieve even greater things — including formalizing our civil nuclear cooperation,” Trump wrote in the letter. Washington and Bratislava are preparing to sign a nuclear power deal that will formally tap Westinghouse, the major American nuclear power company, to build a new nuclear reactor in western Slovakia, with costs estimated at €13 billion to €15 billion. The decision was announced earlier in July and drew criticism from the Slovak opposition after Fico’s government bypassed the tender process to award what is the largest investment project in Slovakia’s history. Slovakia faces a football playoff in March against Kosovo, and then a potential final qualifier against Turkey or Romania in order to reach the 2026 Men’s World Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
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Trump’s domestic struggles are making foreign leaders nervous
DOHA, Qatar — Inside the U.S., President Donald Trump is dogged by rising consumer prices, the Epstein files debacle, and Republicans’ newfound willingness to defy him. But go 100 miles, 1,000 miles, or, as I recently did, 7,000 miles past U.S. borders, and Trump’s domestic challenges — and the sinking poll numbers that accompany them — matter little. The U.S. president remains a behemoth in the eyes of the rest of the world. A person who could wreck another country. Or perhaps the only one who can fix another country’s problems. That’s the sense I got this weekend from talking to foreign officials and global elites at this year’s Doha Forum, a major international gathering focused on diplomacy and geopolitics. Over sweets, caffeine and the buzz of nearby conversations, some members of the jet set wondered if Trump’s domestic struggles will lead him to take more risks abroad — and some hope he does. This comes as Trump faces criticism from key MAGA players who say he’s already too focused on foreign policy. “He doesn’t need Capitol Hill to get work done from a foreign policy standpoint,” an Arab official said of Trump, who, let’s face it, has made it abundantly clear he cares little about Congress. Vuk Jeremic, a former Serbian foreign minister, told me that whether people like Trump or not, “I don’t think that there is any doubt that he is a very, very consequential global actor.” He wasn’t the only one who used the term “consequential.” The word doesn’t carry a moral judgment. A person can be consequential whether they save the world or destroy it. What the word does indicate in this context is the power of the U.S. presidency. The weakest U.S. president is still stronger than the strongest leader of most other countries. America’s wealth, weapons and global reach ensure that. U.S. presidents have long had more latitude and ability to take direct action on foreign policy than domestic policy. They also often turn to the global stage when their national influence fades in their final years in office, when they don’t have to worry about reelection. There’s a reason Barack Obama waited until his final two years in office to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba. In the first year of his second term, Trump has stunned the world repeatedly, on everything from gutting U.S. foreign aid to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. He remains as capricious as ever, shifting sides on everything from Russia’s war on Ukraine to whether he wants to expel Palestinians from Gaza. He seeks a Nobel Peace Prize but is threatening a potential war with Venezuela. Trump managed to jolt the gathering at the glitzy Sheraton resort in Doha by unveiling his National Security Strategy — which astonished foreign onlookers on many levels — in the run-up to the event. The part that left jaws on the floor was its attack on America’s allies in Europe, which it claimed faces “civilizational erasure.” The strategy’s release led one panel moderator to ask the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, whether Trump sees Europe as “the enemy.” Yet, some foreign officials praised Trump’s disruptive moves and said they hope he will keep shaking up a calcified international order that has left many countries behind. Several African leaders in particular said they wanted Trump to get more involved in ending conflicts on their continent, especially Sudan. They don’t care about the many nasty things Trump has said about Africa, waving that off as irrelevant political rhetoric. Trump claims to have already ended seven or eight wars. It’s a wild assertion, not least because some of the conflicts he’s referring to weren’t wars and some of the truces he’s brokered are shaky. When I pointed this out, foreign officials told me to lower my bar. Peace is a process, they stressed. If Trump can get that process going or rolling faster, it’s a win. Maybe there are still clashes between Rwanda and Congo. But at least Trump is forcing the two sides to talk and agree to framework deals, they suggested. “You should be proud of your president,” one African official said. (I granted him and several others anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive diplomatic issues involving the U.S.) Likewise, there’s an appreciation in many diplomatic corners about the economic lens Trump imposes on the world. Wealthy Arab states, such as Qatar, already are benefiting from such commercial diplomacy. Others want in, too. “He’s been very clear that his Africa policy should focus on doing business with Africa, and to me, that’s very progressive,” said Mthuli Ncube, Zimbabwe’s finance minister. He added that one question in the global diplomatic community is whether the next U.S. president — Democrat or Republican — will adopt Trump’s “creativity.” The diplomats and others gathered in Doha were well-aware that Trump appreciates praise but also sometimes respects those who stand up to him. So one has to tread carefully. Kallas, for instance, downplayed the Trump team’s broadsides against Europe in the National Security Strategy. Intentionally or not, her choice reflected the power differential between the U.S. and the EU. “The U.S. is still our biggest ally,” Kallas insisted. Privately, another European official I spoke to was fuming. The strategy’s accusations were “very disturbing,” they said. The official agreed, nonetheless, that Trump is too powerful for European countries to do much beyond stage some symbolic diplomatic protests. Few Trump administration officials attended the Doha Forum. The top names were Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, and Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey. Donald Trump Jr. — not a U.S. official, but certainly influential — also made an appearance. Several foreign diplomats expressed optimism that Trump’s quest for a Nobel Peace Prize will guide him to take actions on the global stage that will ultimately bring more stability in the world — even if it is a rocky ride. A British diplomat said they were struck by Trump’s musings about gaining entry to heaven. Maybe a nervousness about the afterlife could induce Trump to, say, avoid a conflagration with Venezuela? “He’s thinking about his legacy,” the diplomat said. Even Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of State whom Trump defeated in the 2016 presidential race, was measured in her critiques. Clinton said “there’s something to be said for the dramatic and bold action” Trump takes. But she warned that the Trump team doesn’t do enough to ensure his efforts, including peace deals, have lasting effect. “There has to be so much follow-up,” she said during one forum event. “And there is an aversion within the administration to the kind of work that is done by Foreign Service officers, diplomats, others who are on the front lines trying to fulfill these national security objectives.” Up until the final minute of his presidency, Trump will have extraordinary power that reaches far past America’s shores. That’s likely to be the case even if the entire Republican Party has turned on him. At the moment, he has more than three years to go. Perhaps he will end immigration to the U.S., abandon Ukraine to Russia’s aggression or strike a nuclear deal with Iran. After all, Trump is, as Zimbabwe’s Ncube put it, not lacking in “creativity.”
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Who are Mogherini and Sannino, the EU heavyweights questioned in fraud probe?
BRUSSELS ― Belgian police raided the EU’s foreign service and the College of Europe on Tuesday in a bombshell corruption probe — and detained two of the EU’s most powerful officials. Federica Mogherini, who once served as the EU’s top diplomat, and Stefano Sannino, a director-general in the European Commission, were questioned over allegations of fraud in the establishment of a training academy for diplomats. Mogherini was born in Rome, the daughter of a film set designer. She was elected to the Italian parliament in 2008 as an MP with the center-left Democratic Party and became Italy’s foreign minister in 2014, an appointment that, at the time, took many by surprise. The 52-year-old’s tenure was short-lived, as she was made the EU’s high representative — the foreign policy chief — the same year, a position she held until 2019. Her time in the job is perhaps most notable for her work on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. At the end of her five-year term, she became the rector of the Bruges-based College of Europe, a position she’s been in ever since. But her appointment was mired in claims of cronyism, as professors and EU officials argued that she was not qualified for the post, did not meet the criteria and applied after the deadline. She has also served as the director of the EU Diplomatic Academy, a program for junior diplomats across EU countries that is run by the College of Europe, since August 2022. It’s the academy that is at the center of the probe. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) said it has “strong suspicions” that rules around “fair competition” were breached when the EEAS awarded the tender to set up the academy. Sannino, a career diplomat from Naples with a packed CV including various roles in Rome and Brussels, has served as director-general of DG Enlargement, permanent representative of Italy to the EU, Italian ambassador to Spain and Andorra and secretary-general of the European External Action Service (EEAS). He has championed LGBTQ+ rights and is married to Catalan political adviser Santiago Mondragón. He started his current role as director-general of DG MENA, the EU’s department for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf, in February. He has lectured at the College of Europe and at the diplomatic academy. None of the people questioned has been charged. An investigative judge has 48 hours to decide on further action.
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Putin considers nuclear tests after Trump threat
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered top officials to come up with proposals for the potential resumption of nuclear testing for the first time since the end of the Cold War more than three decades ago. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump instructed the Pentagon to “immediately” start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with nuclear testing programs in other nations. Putin, speaking at Russia’s Security Council, told the country’s foreign and defense ministers, its special services and the relevant civilian agencies to study the matter and “submit coordinated proposals on the possible commencement of work to prepare for nuclear weapons testing.” Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin at the meeting that it would be “appropriate to immediately begin preparations for full-scale nuclear tests.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later clarified that “the president did not give the order to begin preparations for the test” but merely ordered a feasibility study. Russia announced last week that it had successfully tested a nuclear-powered torpedo, dubbed Poseidon, that was capable of damaging entire coastal regions as well as a new cruise missile named the Burevestnik, prompting Trump to respond. The U.S. today launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, Minuteman III, in a routine test. The Cold War was characterized by an intense nuclear arms race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union as the superpowers competed for superiority by stockpiling and developing nuclear weapons. It ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the signing of nuclear treaties such as START, which aimed to reduce and control nuclear arsenals. The Soviet Union conducted its last test in 1990 and the U.S. in 1992. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin at the meeting that it would be “appropriate to immediately begin preparations for full-scale nuclear tests.” | Contributor/Getty Images A report this year by the SIPRI think tank warned that the global stockpile of nuclear weapons is increasing, with all nine nuclear-armed states — the U.S., U.K., Russia, France, China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea — upgrading existing weapons and adding new versions to their stockpiles.
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Germany tells nationals to leave Iran, fearing retaliation over sanctions
German citizens are being asked to leave Iran and refrain from travelling to the country due to concerns about potential retaliatory actions by Tehran regarding sanctions, the Federal Foreign Office said late Thursday. Germany along with France and the United Kingdom on Thursday triggered the process to reimpose sanctions on Iran at the United Nations Security Council. Those sanctions were lifted in 2015 under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in exchange for Iran agreeing to keep its nuclear program strictly peaceful. “Since Iranian government officials have repeatedly threatened consequences in the past, it cannot be ruled out that German interests and nationals will be affected by countermeasures in Iran,” the Foreign Office said in a statement on its website. The three countries, known as the E3, said they had tried to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table over its nuclear program, but that Iran keeps violating the commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran has been increasingly breaching the deal since the United States under Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the move by the E3 countries, calling it a “provocative and unnecessary escalation.” It promised “appropriate responses,” without going into detail. The U.N. sanctions in place before the 2015 deal include a conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel bans and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology.
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Foreign Affairs
UK, France and Germany trigger sanctions process against Iran over nuclear program
LONDON — France, Germany and the United Kingdom triggered the process to reimpose sanctions on Iran at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, according to two senior diplomats. The group of countries — known as the E3 — argued that it has repeatedly tried to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table for talks on its nuclear program but that the Islamic republic continues to breach its obligations under a 2015 nuclear deal. It comes ahead of a deadline mid-October that would see the possibility of imposing United Nations sanctions on Iran expire. The three countries have now notified the presidency of the U.N. Security Council that they intend to activate the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA.) A U.K. official, granted anonymity to speak about sensitive matters, said it was “not a decision that’s been taken at all lightly” and had followed “very intense diplomacy” over the last 12 months. A senior French diplomat said: “Our aim has always been to give a chance to diplomacy… But in the absence of any gesture from [the Iranians], we would have to re-establish sanctions.”  Britain, France and Germany have decided to move due to what they argue is Iran’s non-cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency; current levels of recorded enrichment in Iran; and a lack of engagement from Tehran in trying to reach a diplomatic outcome. The same British official specified that Iran was in “significant” non-compliance with the terms of the JCPOA, with an enriched uranium stockpile of more than 9000 kg, 45 times the prescribed limit.   The three countries will now enter a 30-day process during which they will seek engagement with Iran on the Security Council while the possibility of an extension remains.   However, if the Security Council does not adopt a resolution to continue the lifting of the resolutions on Iran, six previously agreed resolutions will come back into effect. The U.N. sanctions in place before the 2015 deal include a conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel bans and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology. The French official said the IAEA “says it is no longer able to guarantee the peaceful character of the Iranian programme,” and “it is not impossible that there are clandestine [nuclear] sites.” The same diplomat expressed hope that Iran would make concessions and restart negotiations in the 30-day timeframe that now opens at the United Nations. However, Iran has threatened to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) if snapback sanctions are imposed.  Nette Nöstlinger contributed to this report.
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Missiles
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Trade
EU’s Kallas calls on Iran to restart nuclear talks as Tehran bristles at US
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged Iran to immediately restart negotiations on ending its nuclear program during a Tuesday phone call with the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. “Negotiations on ending Iran’s nuclear program should restart as soon as possible. Cooperation with the IAEA must resume. The EU is ready to facilitate this,” Kallas said following the call, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency. “Any threats to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty don’t help to lower tensions,” she added. Tehran had said on June 17 that its parliament was drafting legislation to withdraw from the NPT. Araghchi reported that he had emphasized Tehran’s deep mistrust of the United States during the call. He also condemned the “destructive approach” that “some European countries” and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi had taken to the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. Their support for Israel and the United States complicates diplomatic efforts, Araghchi said, although he didn’t specify which countries he meant. The call between Kallas and Araghchi came amid heightened international concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions following the collapse of its 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and Washington’s dramatic June 21 strikes on its nuclear enrichment facilities. That strike snuffed out a nascent effort by European politicians to defuse tensions in talks with Araghchi. Hostilities between Iran and Israel have also escalated over the past fortnight with a series of strikes and counterstrikes, culminating on Tuesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration of victory in the country’s “Rising Lion” operation to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities. However, some reports suggest Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by a few months at most. A ceasefire announced last week by U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be holding. Netanyahu’s office announced on Tuesday that the Israeli leader will visit the U.S. next week to meet with Trump, underscoring ongoing diplomatic efforts to keep the peace.
Conflict
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Cooperation
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France, Germany, UK plead for Iran not to cease cooperation with IAEA
Iran should immediately resume full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement Monday.  Iran has decided to remove the IAEA’s surveillance cameras from its nuclear facilities, claiming Israel obtained “sensitive facility data” from them, according to media reports Saturday. The country also barred IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi from visiting the facilities.  Per the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran allowed the IAEA, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, to access and monitor its nuclear facilities. The first Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018, and Tehran has gradually rolled back its commitments — especially so after recent Israeli and American airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Now, France, Germany and the U.K. are calling on Iranian authorities to reverse course, refrain from ceasing cooperation with the IAEA and ensure the safety of the agency’s personnel. The three countries also condemned threats against the IAEA’s Grossi. Kayhan, Iran’s hard-line newspaper, recently alleged that Grossi was an Israeli spy and called for his execution. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, however, said Sunday that Tehran poses no threat to Grossi. After Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting retaliation from Tehran, European leaders attempted to broker a peace deal and prevent further escalation in the region, but failed. Their calls for a diplomatic solution were ignored by the Trump administration, which instead chose to join in the military strikes against Iran. Israel and Iran have since agreed on a ceasefire, but negotiations on Iran’s nuclear capabilities are yet to start. Iran could again begin enriching uranium in “a matter of months,” Grossi warned over the weekend.
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War
Iran reportedly bans IAEA chief, surveillance cameras from nuclear plants
Iran decided to ban the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency from its nuclear facilities and to remove surveillance cameras from them, claiming it discovered Israel’s government obtained “sensitive facility data,” according to media reports Saturday.  The vice speaker of the Iranian parliament, Hamid Reza Haji Babaei, announced the decision to bar IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on Saturday during funerals of top military officials and nuclear scientists killed by recent Israeli strikes, Mehr news agency reported. A ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran, after a war that lasted 12 days. Israel had attacked Iranian highly protected nuclear facilities with drones and warplanes, aiming to prevent the regime from building a nuclear bomb, triggering counterattacks over Israeli’s cities from the Iranian regime. Iran previously allowed the IAEA to access and inspect its nuclear plants and use sophisticated surveillance devices as a crucial commitment within the nuclear deal Tehran signed with France, Russia, the U.K., the U.S., Germany and the European Union in 2015 to keep its nuclear program under control. The first Trump administration withdrew from that deal in 2018. Iran had threatened to remove surveillance cameras during recent negotiations on its nuclear program.
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