LONDON — Reza Pahlavi was in the United States as a student in 1979 when his
father, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in a revolution. He has not set foot
inside Iran since, though his monarchist supporters have never stopped believing
that one day their “crown prince” will return.
As anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities
across the country of 90 million people, despite an internet blackout and an
increasingly brutal crackdown, that day may just be nearing.
Pahlavi’s name is on the lips of many protesters, who chant that they want the
“shah” back. Even his critics — and there are plenty who oppose a return of the
monarchy — now concede that Pahlavi may prove to be the only figure with the
profile required to oversee a transition.
The global implications of the end of the Islamic Republic and its replacement
with a pro-Western democratic government would be profound, touching everything
from the Gaza crisis to the wars in Ukraine and Yemen, to the oil market.
Over the course of three interviews in the past 12 months in London, Paris and
online, Pahlavi told POLITICO how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
could be overthrown. He set out the steps needed to end half a century of
religious dictatorship and outlined his own proposal to lead a transition to
secular democracy.
Nothing is guaranteed, and even Pahlavi’s team cannot be sure that this current
wave of protests will take down the regime, never mind bring him to power. But
if it does, the following is an account of Pahlavi’s roadmap for revolution and
his blueprint for a democratic future.
POPULAR UPRISING
Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran, and in his
interview with POLITICO last February he made it clear he wanted foreign powers
to focus on supporting Iranians to move against their rulers rather than
intervening militarily from the outside.
“People are already on the streets with no help. The economic situation is to a
point where our currency devaluation, salaries can’t be paid, people can’t even
afford a kilo of potatoes, never mind meat,” he said. “We need more and more
sustained protests.”
Over the past two weeks, the spiraling cost of living and economic mismanagement
have indeed helped fuel the protest wave. The biggest rallies in years have
filled the streets, despite attempts by the authorities to intimidate opponents
through violence and by cutting off communications.
Pahlavi has sought to encourage foreign financial support for workers who will
disrupt the state by going on strike. He also called for more Starlink internet
terminals to be shipped into Iran, in defiance of a ban, to make it harder for
the regime to stop dissidents from communicating and coordinating their
opposition. Amid the latest internet shutdowns, Starlink has provided the
opposition movements with a vital lifeline.
As the protests gathered pace last week, Pahlavi stepped up his own stream of
social media posts and videos, which gain many millions of views, encouraging
people onto the streets. He started by calling for demonstrations to begin at 8
p.m. local time, then urged protesters to start earlier and occupy city centers
for longer. His supporters say these appeals are helping steer the protest
movement.
Reza Pahlavi argues that change needs to be driven from inside Iran. | Salvatore
Di Nolfi/EPA
The security forces have brutally crushed many of these gatherings. The
Norway-based Iranian Human Rights group puts the number of dead at 648, while
estimating that more than 10,000 people have been arrested.
It’s almost impossible to know how widely Pahlavi’s message is permeating
nationwide, but footage inside Iran suggests the exiled prince’s words are
gaining some traction with demonstrators, with increasing images of the
pre-revolutionary Lion and Sun flag appearing at protests, and crowds chanting
“javid shah” — the eternal shah.
DEFECTORS
Understandably, given his family history, Pahlavi has made a study of
revolutions and draws on the collapse of the Soviet Union to understand how the
Islamic Republic can be overthrown. In Romania and Czechoslovakia, he said, what
was required to end Communism was ultimately “maximum defections” among people
inside the ruling elites, military and security services who did not want to “go
down with the sinking ship.”
“I don’t think there will ever be a successful civil disobedience movement
without the tacit collaboration or non-intervention of the military,” he said
during an interview last February.
There are multiple layers to Iran’s machinery of repression, including the hated
Basij militia, but the most powerful and feared part of its security apparatus
is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pahlavi argued that top IRGC
commanders who are “lining their pockets” — and would remain loyal to Khamenei —
did not represent the bulk of the organization’s operatives, many of whom “can’t
pay rent and have to take a second job at the end of their shift.”
“They’re ultimately at some point contemplating their children are in the
streets protesting … and resisting the regime. And it’s their children they’re
called on to shoot. How long is that tenable?”
Pahlavi’s offer to those defecting is that they will be granted an amnesty once
the regime has fallen. He argues that most of the people currently working in
the government and military will need to remain in their roles to provide
stability once Khamenei has been thrown out, in order to avoid hollowing out the
administration and creating a vacuum — as happened after the 2003 U.S.-led
invasion of Iraq.
Only the hardline officials at the top of the regime in Tehran should expect to
face punishment.
In June, Pahlavi announced he and his team were setting up a secure portal for
defectors to register their support for overthrowing the regime, offering an
amnesty to those who sign up and help support a popular uprising. By July, he
told POLITICO, 50,000 apparent regime defectors had used the system.
His team are now wary of making claims regarding the total number of defectors,
beyond saying “tens of thousands” have registered. These have to be verified,
and any regime trolls or spies rooted out. But Pahlavi’s allies say a large
number of new defectors made contact via the portal as the protests gathered
pace in recent days.
REGIME CHANGE
In his conversations with POLITICO last year, Pahlavi insisted he didn’t want
the United States or Israel to get involved directly and drive out the supreme
leader and his lieutenants. He always said the regime would be destroyed by a
combination of fracturing from within and pressure from popular unrest.
He’s also been critical of the reluctance of European governments to challenge
the regime and of their preference to continue diplomatic efforts, which he has
described as appeasement. European powers, especially France, Germany and the
U.K., have historically had a significant role in managing the West’s relations
with Iran, notably in designing the 2015 nuclear deal that sought to limit
Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.
But Pahlavi’s allies want more support and vocal condemnation from Europe.
U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and
wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. He ordered American military
strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year, as part of Israel’s 12-day war,
action that many analysts and Pahlavi’s team agree leaves the clerical elite and
its vast security apparatus weaker than ever.
U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal in his first term and
wasted little time on diplomacy in his second. | Pool photo by Bonnie Cash via
EPA
Pahlavi remains in close contact with members of the Trump administration, as
well as other governments including in Germany, France and the U.K.
He has met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio several times and said he regards
him as “the most astute and understanding” holder of that office when it comes
to Iran since the 1979 revolution.
In recent days Trump has escalated his threats to intervene, including
potentially through more military action if Iran’s rulers continue their
crackdown and kill large numbers of protesters.
On the weekend Pahlavi urged Trump to follow through. “Mr President,” he posted
on X Sunday. “Your words of solidarity have given Iranians the strength to fight
for freedom,” he said. “Help them liberate themselves and Make Iran Great
Again!”
THE CARETAKER KING
In June Pahlavi announced he was ready to replace Khamenei’s administration to
lead the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.
“Once the regime collapses, we have to have a transitional government as quickly
as possible,” he told POLITICO last year. He proposed that a constitutional
conference should be held among Iranian representatives to devise a new
settlement, to be ratified by the people in a referendum.
The day after that referendum is held, he told POLITICO in February, “that’s the
end of my mission in life.”
Asked if he wanted to see a monarchy restored, he said in June: “Democratic
options should be on the table. I’m not going to be the one to decide that. My
role however is to make sure that no voice is left behind. That all opinions
should have the chance to argue their case — it doesn’t matter if they are
republicans or monarchists, it doesn’t matter if they’re on the left of center
or the right.”
One option he hasn’t apparently excluded might be to restore a permanent
monarchy, with a democratically elected government serving in his name.
Pahlavi says he has three clear principles for establishing a new democracy:
protecting Iran’s territorial integrity; a secular democratic system that
separates religion from the government; and “every principle of human rights
incorporated into our laws.”
He confirmed to POLITICO that this would include equality and protection against
discrimination for all citizens, regardless of their sexual or religious
orientation.
COME-BACK CAPITALISM
Over the past year, Pahlavi has been touring Western capitals meeting
politicians as well as senior business figures and investors from the world of
banking and finance. Iran is a major OPEC oil producer and has the second
biggest reserves of natural gas in the world, “which could supply Europe for a
long time to come,” he said.
“Iran is the most untapped reserve for foreign investment,” Pahlavi said in
February. “If Silicon Valley was to commit for a $100 billion investment, you
could imagine what sort of impact that could have. The sky is the limit.”
What he wants to bring about, he says, is a “democratic culture” — even more
than any specific laws that stipulate forms of democratic government. He pointed
to Iran’s past under the Pahlavi monarchy, saying his grandfather remains a
respected figure as a modernizer.
“If it becomes an issue of the family, my grandfather today is the most revered
political figure in the architect of modern Iran,” he said in February. “Every
chant of the streets of ‘god bless his soul.’ These are the actual slogans
people chant on the street as they enter or exit a soccer stadium. Why? Because
the intent was patriotic, helping Iran come out of the dark ages. There was no
aspect of secular modern institutions from a postal system to a modern army to
education which was in the hands of the clerics.”
Pahlavi’s father, the shah, brought in an era of industrialization and economic
improvement alongside greater freedom for women, he said. “This is where the Gen
Z of Iran is,” he said. “Regardless of whether I play a direct role or not,
Iranians are coming out of the tunnel.”
Conversely, many Iranians still associate his father’s regime with out-of-touch
elites and the notorious Savak secret police, whose brutality helped fuel the
1979 revolution.
NOT SO FAST
Nobody can be sure what happens next in Iran. It may still come down to Trump
and perhaps Israel.
Anti-regime demonstrations fill the streets of more than 100 towns and cities
across the country of 90 million people. | Neil Hall/EPA
Plenty of experts don’t believe the regime is finished, though it is clearly
weakened. Even if the protests do result in change, many say it seems more
likely that the regime will use a mixture of fear tactics and adaptation to
protect itself rather than collapse or be toppled completely.
While reports suggest young people have led the protests and appear to have
grown in confidence, recent days have seen a more ferocious regime response,
with accounts of hospitals being overwhelmed with shooting victims. The
demonstrations could still be snuffed out by a regime with a capacity for
violence.
The Iranian opposition remains hugely fragmented, with many leading activists in
prison. The substantial diaspora has struggled to find a unity of voice, though
Pahlavi tried last year to bring more people on board with his own movement.
Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London, said
Iran should do better than reviving a “failed” monarchy. She added she was
unsure how wide Pahlavi’s support really was inside the country. Independent,
reliable polling is hard to find and memories of the darker side of the shah’s
era run deep.
But the exiled prince’s advantage now may be that there is no better option to
oversee the collapse of the clerics and map out what comes next.
“Pahlavi has name recognition and there is no other clear individual to turn
to,” Vakil said. “People are willing to listen to his comments calling on them
to go out in the streets.”
Tag - Nuclear Deal
Slovakia’s populist Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that U.S. President
Donald Trump has invited him to America to sign a nuclear power deal — and
attend the FIFA World Cup next summer.
“It is an honor for me that yesterday the special envoy of U.S. President D.
Trump handed me a written invitation to visit the United States and meet with
him,” Fico said in a social media post on Monday.
“Together, we aim to support the signing of an intergovernmental agreement
between the Slovak Republic and the United States on cooperation in nuclear
energy and to exchange views on the most pressing global issues,” he added. “The
timeframe of my visit will coincide with the celebrations of the 250th
anniversary of U.S. independence and the hosting of the FIFA World Cup.”
The invitation comes on the heels of the Dec. 4 publication of the U.S. National
Security Strategy, which caused an uproar in Europe for suggesting that the
Trump administration will support ideologically aligned European patriotic
parties, such as Fico’s leftist-populist and nationalist Smer.
Late last week, U.S. Ambassador to France Charles Kushner met with senior
figures from that country’s far-right opposition National Rally, while U.S.
Under Secretary of State Sarah Rogers met with opposition far-right Alternative
for Germany (AfD) party politician Markus Frohnmaier in Washington.
The letter from Trump, dated Dec. 11, was given to Fico by U.S. Deputy Energy
Secretary James Danly, who was in Bratislava this week.
“Our relationship means a great deal to me and reflects the strength of the
tremendous bond between the United States of America and Slovakia. Our countries
have never been closer. I am confident that, by continuing to work together, we
will achieve even greater things — including formalizing our civil nuclear
cooperation,” Trump wrote in the letter.
Washington and Bratislava are preparing to sign a nuclear power deal that will
formally tap Westinghouse, the major American nuclear power company, to build a
new nuclear reactor in western Slovakia, with costs estimated at €13 billion to
€15 billion.
The decision was announced earlier in July and drew criticism from the Slovak
opposition after Fico’s government bypassed the tender process to award what is
the largest investment project in Slovakia’s history.
Slovakia faces a football playoff in March against Kosovo, and then a potential
final qualifier against Turkey or Romania in order to reach the 2026 Men’s World
Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
DOHA, Qatar — Inside the U.S., President Donald Trump is dogged by rising
consumer prices, the Epstein files debacle, and Republicans’ newfound
willingness to defy him.
But go 100 miles, 1,000 miles, or, as I recently did, 7,000 miles past U.S.
borders, and Trump’s domestic challenges — and the sinking poll numbers that
accompany them — matter little.
The U.S. president remains a behemoth in the eyes of the rest of the world. A
person who could wreck another country. Or perhaps the only one who can fix
another country’s problems.
That’s the sense I got this weekend from talking to foreign officials and global
elites at this year’s Doha Forum, a major international gathering focused on
diplomacy and geopolitics.
Over sweets, caffeine and the buzz of nearby conversations, some members of the
jet set wondered if Trump’s domestic struggles will lead him to take more risks
abroad — and some hope he does. This comes as Trump faces criticism from key
MAGA players who say he’s already too focused on foreign policy.
“He doesn’t need Capitol Hill to get work done from a foreign policy
standpoint,” an Arab official said of Trump, who, let’s face it, has made it
abundantly clear he cares little about Congress.
Vuk Jeremic, a former Serbian foreign minister, told me that whether people like
Trump or not, “I don’t think that there is any doubt that he is a very, very
consequential global actor.”
He wasn’t the only one who used the term “consequential.”
The word doesn’t carry a moral judgment. A person can be consequential whether
they save the world or destroy it. What the word does indicate in this context
is the power of the U.S. presidency. The weakest U.S. president is still
stronger than the strongest leader of most other countries. America’s wealth,
weapons and global reach ensure that.
U.S. presidents have long had more latitude and ability to take direct action on
foreign policy than domestic policy. They also often turn to the global stage
when their national influence fades in their final years in office, when they
don’t have to worry about reelection. There’s a reason Barack Obama waited until
his final two years in office to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba.
In the first year of his second term, Trump has stunned the world repeatedly, on
everything from gutting U.S. foreign aid to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.
He remains as capricious as ever, shifting sides on everything from Russia’s war
on Ukraine to whether he wants to expel Palestinians from Gaza. He seeks a Nobel
Peace Prize but is threatening a potential war with Venezuela.
Trump managed to jolt the gathering at the glitzy Sheraton resort in Doha by
unveiling his National Security Strategy — which astonished foreign onlookers on
many levels — in the run-up to the event.
The part that left jaws on the floor was its attack on America’s allies in
Europe, which it claimed faces “civilizational erasure.” The strategy’s release
led one panel moderator to ask the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas,
whether Trump sees Europe as “the enemy.”
Yet, some foreign officials praised Trump’s disruptive moves and said they hope
he will keep shaking up a calcified international order that has left many
countries behind.
Several African leaders in particular said they wanted Trump to get more
involved in ending conflicts on their continent, especially Sudan. They don’t
care about the many nasty things Trump has said about Africa, waving that off as
irrelevant political rhetoric.
Trump claims to have already ended seven or eight wars. It’s a wild assertion,
not least because some of the conflicts he’s referring to weren’t wars and some
of the truces he’s brokered are shaky.
When I pointed this out, foreign officials told me to lower my bar. Peace is a
process, they stressed. If Trump can get that process going or rolling faster,
it’s a win.
Maybe there are still clashes between Rwanda and Congo. But at least Trump is
forcing the two sides to talk and agree to framework deals, they suggested.
“You should be proud of your president,” one African official said. (I granted
him and several others anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive diplomatic issues
involving the U.S.)
Likewise, there’s an appreciation in many diplomatic corners about the economic
lens Trump imposes on the world. Wealthy Arab states, such as Qatar, already are
benefiting from such commercial diplomacy.
Others want in, too.
“He’s been very clear that his Africa policy should focus on doing business with
Africa, and to me, that’s very progressive,” said Mthuli Ncube, Zimbabwe’s
finance minister. He added that one question in the global diplomatic community
is whether the next U.S. president — Democrat or Republican — will adopt Trump’s
“creativity.”
The diplomats and others gathered in Doha were well-aware that Trump appreciates
praise but also sometimes respects those who stand up to him. So one has to
tread carefully.
Kallas, for instance, downplayed the Trump team’s broadsides against Europe in
the National Security Strategy. Intentionally or not, her choice reflected the
power differential between the U.S. and the EU.
“The U.S. is still our biggest ally,” Kallas insisted.
Privately, another European official I spoke to was fuming. The strategy’s
accusations were “very disturbing,” they said.
The official agreed, nonetheless, that Trump is too powerful for European
countries to do much beyond stage some symbolic diplomatic protests.
Few Trump administration officials attended the Doha Forum. The top names were
Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, and Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador
to Turkey. Donald Trump Jr. — not a U.S. official, but certainly influential
— also made an appearance.
Several foreign diplomats expressed optimism that Trump’s quest for a Nobel
Peace Prize will guide him to take actions on the global stage that will
ultimately bring more stability in the world — even if it is a rocky ride.
A British diplomat said they were struck by Trump’s musings about gaining entry
to heaven. Maybe a nervousness about the afterlife could induce Trump to, say,
avoid a conflagration with Venezuela?
“He’s thinking about his legacy,” the diplomat said.
Even Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of State whom Trump defeated in the
2016 presidential race, was measured in her critiques.
Clinton said “there’s something to be said for the dramatic and bold action”
Trump takes. But she warned that the Trump team doesn’t do enough to ensure his
efforts, including peace deals, have lasting effect.
“There has to be so much follow-up,” she said during one forum event. “And there
is an aversion within the administration to the kind of work that is done by
Foreign Service officers, diplomats, others who are on the front lines trying to
fulfill these national security objectives.”
Up until the final minute of his presidency, Trump will have extraordinary power
that reaches far past America’s shores. That’s likely to be the case even if the
entire Republican Party has turned on him.
At the moment, he has more than three years to go. Perhaps he will end
immigration to the U.S., abandon Ukraine to Russia’s aggression or strike a
nuclear deal with Iran.
After all, Trump is, as Zimbabwe’s Ncube put it, not lacking in “creativity.”
BRUSSELS ― Belgian police raided the EU’s foreign service and the College of
Europe on Tuesday in a bombshell corruption probe — and detained two of the EU’s
most powerful officials.
Federica Mogherini, who once served as the EU’s top diplomat, and Stefano
Sannino, a director-general in the European Commission, were questioned over
allegations of fraud in the establishment of a training academy for diplomats.
Mogherini was born in Rome, the daughter of a film set designer. She was elected
to the Italian parliament in 2008 as an MP with the center-left Democratic Party
and became Italy’s foreign minister in 2014, an appointment that, at the time,
took many by surprise.
The 52-year-old’s tenure was short-lived, as she was made the EU’s high
representative — the foreign policy chief — the same year, a position she held
until 2019. Her time in the job is perhaps most notable for her work on the 2015
Iran nuclear deal.
At the end of her five-year term, she became the rector of the Bruges-based
College of Europe, a position she’s been in ever since. But her appointment was
mired in claims of cronyism, as professors and EU officials argued that she was
not qualified for the post, did not meet the criteria and applied after the
deadline.
She has also served as the director of the EU Diplomatic Academy, a program for
junior diplomats across EU countries that is run by the College of Europe, since
August 2022.
It’s the academy that is at the center of the probe. The European Public
Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) said it has “strong suspicions” that rules around
“fair competition” were breached when the EEAS awarded the tender to set up the
academy.
Sannino, a career diplomat from Naples with a packed CV including various roles
in Rome and Brussels, has served as director-general of DG Enlargement,
permanent representative of Italy to the EU, Italian ambassador to Spain and
Andorra and secretary-general of the European External Action Service (EEAS).
He has championed LGBTQ+ rights and is married to Catalan political adviser
Santiago Mondragón.
He started his current role as director-general of DG MENA, the EU’s department
for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf, in February. He has lectured at
the College of Europe and at the diplomatic academy.
None of the people questioned has been charged. An investigative judge has 48
hours to decide on further action.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered top officials to come up
with proposals for the potential resumption of nuclear testing for the first
time since the end of the Cold War more than three decades ago.
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump instructed the Pentagon to “immediately”
start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with nuclear testing programs
in other nations.
Putin, speaking at Russia’s Security Council, told the country’s foreign and
defense ministers, its special services and the relevant civilian agencies to
study the matter and “submit coordinated proposals on the possible commencement
of work to prepare for nuclear weapons testing.”
Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin at the meeting that it would be
“appropriate to immediately begin preparations for full-scale nuclear tests.”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later clarified that “the president did not
give the order to begin preparations for the test” but merely ordered a
feasibility study.
Russia announced last week that it had successfully tested a nuclear-powered
torpedo, dubbed Poseidon, that was capable of damaging entire coastal regions as
well as a new cruise missile named the Burevestnik, prompting Trump to respond.
The U.S. today launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, Minuteman III, in
a routine test.
The Cold War was characterized by an intense nuclear arms race between the U.S.
and the Soviet Union as the superpowers competed for superiority by stockpiling
and developing nuclear weapons. It ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the signing of nuclear treaties such as START, which aimed to reduce
and control nuclear arsenals. The Soviet Union conducted its last test in 1990
and the U.S. in 1992.
Defense Minister Andrei Belousov told Putin at the meeting that it would be
“appropriate to immediately begin preparations for full-scale nuclear tests.” |
Contributor/Getty Images
A report this year by the SIPRI think tank warned that the global stockpile of
nuclear weapons is increasing, with all nine nuclear-armed states — the U.S.,
U.K., Russia, France, China, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea — upgrading
existing weapons and adding new versions to their stockpiles.
German citizens are being asked to leave Iran and refrain from travelling to the
country due to concerns about potential retaliatory actions by Tehran regarding
sanctions, the Federal Foreign Office said late Thursday.
Germany along with France and the United Kingdom on Thursday triggered the
process to reimpose sanctions on Iran at the United Nations Security Council.
Those sanctions were lifted in 2015 under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) in exchange for Iran agreeing to keep its nuclear program strictly
peaceful.
“Since Iranian government officials have repeatedly threatened consequences in
the past, it cannot be ruled out that German interests and nationals will be
affected by countermeasures in Iran,” the Foreign Office said in a statement on
its website.
The three countries, known as the E3, said they had tried to bring Tehran back
to the negotiating table over its nuclear program, but that Iran keeps violating
the commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran has been increasingly breaching the deal since the United States under
Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the move by the E3 countries, calling it a
“provocative and unnecessary escalation.” It promised “appropriate responses,”
without going into detail.
The U.N. sanctions in place before the 2015 deal include a conventional arms
embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel
bans and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology.
LONDON — France, Germany and the United Kingdom triggered the process to
reimpose sanctions on Iran at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday,
according to two senior diplomats.
The group of countries — known as the E3 — argued that it has repeatedly tried
to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table for talks on its nuclear program
but that the Islamic republic continues to breach its obligations under a 2015
nuclear deal.
It comes ahead of a deadline mid-October that would see the possibility of
imposing United Nations sanctions on Iran expire.
The three countries have now notified the presidency of the U.N. Security
Council that they intend to activate the “snapback” mechanism in the 2015
agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA.)
A U.K. official, granted anonymity to speak about sensitive matters, said it was
“not a decision that’s been taken at all lightly” and had followed “very intense
diplomacy” over the last 12 months. A senior French diplomat said: “Our aim has
always been to give a chance to diplomacy… But in the absence of any gesture
from [the Iranians], we would have to re-establish sanctions.”
Britain, France and Germany have decided to move due to what they argue is
Iran’s non-cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency; current
levels of recorded enrichment in Iran; and a lack of engagement from Tehran in
trying to reach a diplomatic outcome.
The same British official specified that Iran was in “significant”
non-compliance with the terms of the JCPOA, with an enriched uranium stockpile
of more than 9000 kg, 45 times the prescribed limit.
The three countries will now enter a 30-day process during which they will seek
engagement with Iran on the Security Council while the possibility of an
extension remains.
However, if the Security Council does not adopt a resolution to continue the
lifting of the resolutions on Iran, six previously agreed resolutions will come
back into effect.
The U.N. sanctions in place before the 2015 deal include a conventional arms
embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile development, asset freezes, travel
bans and a ban on producing nuclear-related technology.
The French official said the IAEA “says it is no longer able to guarantee the
peaceful character of the Iranian programme,” and “it is not impossible that
there are clandestine [nuclear] sites.”
The same diplomat expressed hope that Iran would make concessions and restart
negotiations in the 30-day timeframe that now opens at the United
Nations. However, Iran has threatened to withdraw from the nuclear
non-proliferation treaty (NPT) if snapback sanctions are imposed.
Nette Nöstlinger contributed to this report.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged Iran to immediately restart
negotiations on ending its nuclear program during a Tuesday phone call with the
country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.
“Negotiations on ending Iran’s nuclear program should restart as soon as
possible. Cooperation with the IAEA must resume. The EU is ready to facilitate
this,” Kallas said following the call, referring to the International Atomic
Energy Agency.
“Any threats to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty don’t help to lower
tensions,” she added. Tehran had said on June 17 that its parliament was
drafting legislation to withdraw from the NPT.
Araghchi reported that he had emphasized Tehran’s deep mistrust of the United
States during the call. He also condemned the “destructive approach” that “some
European countries” and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi had taken to the
recent conflict between Israel and Iran. Their support for Israel and the United
States complicates diplomatic efforts, Araghchi said, although he didn’t specify
which countries he meant.
The call between Kallas and Araghchi came amid heightened international concern
over Iran’s nuclear ambitions following the collapse of its 2015 nuclear deal
with the U.S. and Washington’s dramatic June 21 strikes on its nuclear
enrichment facilities. That strike snuffed out a nascent effort by European
politicians to defuse tensions in talks with Araghchi.
Hostilities between Iran and Israel have also escalated over the past fortnight
with a series of strikes and counterstrikes, culminating on Tuesday with Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration of victory in the country’s
“Rising Lion” operation to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities. However, some
reports suggest Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by a few months at most.
A ceasefire announced last week by U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be
holding. Netanyahu’s office announced on Tuesday that the Israeli leader will
visit the U.S. next week to meet with Trump, underscoring ongoing diplomatic
efforts to keep the peace.
Iran should immediately resume full cooperation with the International Atomic
Energy Agency, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom
said in a joint statement Monday.
Iran has decided to remove the IAEA’s surveillance cameras from its nuclear
facilities, claiming Israel obtained “sensitive facility data” from them,
according to media reports Saturday. The country also barred IAEA Director
General Rafael Grossi from visiting the facilities.
Per the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran allowed the IAEA, the United Nations nuclear
watchdog, to access and monitor its nuclear facilities. The first Trump
administration withdrew from the deal in 2018, and Tehran has gradually rolled
back its commitments — especially so after recent Israeli and American
airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
Now, France, Germany and the U.K. are calling on Iranian authorities to reverse
course, refrain from ceasing cooperation with the IAEA and ensure the safety of
the agency’s personnel.
The three countries also condemned threats against the IAEA’s Grossi. Kayhan,
Iran’s hard-line newspaper, recently alleged that Grossi was an Israeli spy and
called for his execution. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, however, said
Sunday that Tehran poses no threat to Grossi.
After Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting
retaliation from Tehran, European leaders attempted to broker a peace deal and
prevent further escalation in the region, but failed. Their calls for a
diplomatic solution were ignored by the Trump administration, which instead
chose to join in the military strikes against Iran.
Israel and Iran have since agreed on a ceasefire, but negotiations on Iran’s
nuclear capabilities are yet to start. Iran could again begin enriching uranium
in “a matter of months,” Grossi warned over the weekend.
Iran decided to ban the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency from its
nuclear facilities and to remove surveillance cameras from them, claiming it
discovered Israel’s government obtained “sensitive facility data,” according to
media reports Saturday.
The vice speaker of the Iranian parliament, Hamid Reza Haji Babaei, announced
the decision to bar IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on Saturday during
funerals of top military officials and nuclear scientists killed by recent
Israeli strikes, Mehr news agency reported.
A ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran, after a war that lasted 12
days. Israel had attacked Iranian highly protected nuclear facilities with
drones and warplanes, aiming to prevent the regime from building a nuclear bomb,
triggering counterattacks over Israeli’s cities from the Iranian regime.
Iran previously allowed the IAEA to access and inspect its nuclear plants and
use sophisticated surveillance devices as a crucial commitment within the
nuclear deal Tehran signed with France, Russia, the U.K., the U.S., Germany and
the European Union in 2015 to keep its nuclear program under control.
The first Trump administration withdrew from that deal in 2018. Iran had
threatened to remove surveillance cameras during recent negotiations on its
nuclear program.