LONDON — Brits voted for Brexit because of immigration. Now they want to turn back the clock. By a whopping two-to-one margin, voters now favor the pre-2021 immigration system to the one that has taken shape since leaving the EU, according to striking new polling commissioned by POLITICO. Some 41 percent of the public say they would prefer “Britain’s immigration policy prior to leaving the European Union” versus just 19 percent who want “Britain’s current immigration policy, implemented since leaving the European Union,” the polling conducted by More in Common found. Immigration loomed large in the 2016 EU referendum campaign, with the Leave camp’s “breaking point” posters and rows about free movement making headlines throughout the build-up to the vote. The idea was that leaving the bloc would give Britain back “control” of its borders and create a fairer system. But the widespread perception is that’s not how it turned out. Split by party, left-leaning Green voters are the most keen on turning the clock back, with 60 percent preferring the old system versus 16 percent the current one. Labour and the Lib Dems aren’t far behind, with 46 percent and 49 percent yearning for the pre-Brexit days respectively. But even the Euroskeptics backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party refuse to endorse the current arrangements, with 37 percent backing the pre-Brexit approach, just 21 percent favoring the post-Brexit system, and an unusually high 42 percent saying they don’t know. WISTFULLY LOOKING BACK? But the results don’t necessarily mean voters are desperate for a return to EU-style freedom of movement, according to researchers whom POLITICO asked about the figures. Since leaving the EU, the U.K. hasn’t just ditched free movement with the bloc, it has also significantly liberalized its rest-of-world visa system — resulting in a large increase in migration from other countries. Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than rates in the 2010s when numbers “typically fluctuated between 200,000 and 300,000,” according to an analysis by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory. Even the Euroskeptics backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party refuse to endorse the current arrangements. | Jack Taylor/Getty Images Levels were even higher in 2022 and 2023, and some commentators have taken to calling this increase the “Boriswave” — after the PM who brought in the new system. According to Sophie Stowers, research manager at More in Common, the results are unlikely to be a reflection of people “wistfully looking back at a time of free movement.” Instead, she says, immigration “has risen in salience since 2020, partly because of increases in net migration caused by reforms to the migration system that people are unhappy with, but also because of the surge in small boat crossings.” As well as losing their reciprocal rights to live and work in other European countries, British voters haven’t even seen lower levels of migration to Britain — creating a situation where nobody of any political persuasion is happy. Marley Morris, associate director at the IPPR think tank, said the results appear to reflect “nostalgia from the public for our pre-Brexit immigration model,” but added it would be “rash to assume this means there is public appetite for a return to free movement of people.” “The overall preference for the pre-Brexit system is most likely the combined result of, on the one hand, the longstanding cohort of Remain supporters continuing to back a pro-EU position, alongside a wider frustration with recent immigration policy, including among those who voted leave.” So nobody’s happy, but not necessarily for the same reasons. RATING OUTCOMES Georgina Sturge, data consultant at Oxford’s Migration Observatory and author of the book “Bad Data: How Governments, Politicians and the Rest of Us Get Misled by Numbers,” said the results must be interpreted carefully. “The key question for us is to what extent people are rating immigration systems based on a robust understanding of their different features, and how much of it is just people going off a vague impression — in other words, which systems give them good and bad vibes?” she said. “People’s knowledge of the ins and outs of different immigration systems is very limited on the whole.” This much is obvious from More in Common’s results. POLITICO also had the pollster ask people what immigration systems they liked and disliked. The most popular was an “Australian-style points-based immigration system,” with a net 46 percent support. The least popular was “Britain’s current immigration policy,” with -39 percent support. Net migration to the U.K. was 431,000 in 2024 — significantly higher than higher than rates in the 2010s. | Krisztian Elek/Getty Images Just one problem: Since leaving the EU, the U.K.’s immigration policy has literally been an Australian-style points-based immigration system. “Getting people to rate these different options doesn’t necessarily tell us what system people would actually prefer but rather how positively or negatively they rate the association it conjures up in their mind,” Sturge said. “People’s understanding of the true differences between the two systems is limited. They’re rating outcomes.” “Even if people have a better impression of immigration in the pre-Brexit era, the government cannot turn back the clock,” Sturge added. “Most obviously, the small boats route did not exist for most of the pre-Brexit period, and successive governments have failed to eliminate it — and rejoining the EU would not eliminate it either. The same arguments against being part of EU free movement would no doubt also resurface if a serious discussion about rejoining were to start up.”

LONDON — Bashing European laws used to be a favored pastime of right-wing British lawmakers. It’s now going mainstream. Months after inheriting responsibility for Britain’s borders, the U.K.’s center-left Prime Minister Keir Starmer is taking aim at the application of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which he says is being wrongly used to circumvent Britain’s own immigration rules. Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, attracted fire from Britain’s top judge earlier this year after publicly criticizing a court decision allowing a Palestinian family to come to the U.K. under a Ukrainian resettlement scheme — in part down to an ECHR provision called Article 8 that protects a right to a family life. “Let me be clear: It should be parliament that makes the rules on immigration. It should be the government who make the policy,” Starmer told MPs, as he pledged to close the “legal loophole” which had led to that ruling.   Starmer’s Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced she is reviewing how aspects of that European treaty are being used by foreign criminals and asylum-seekers to argue for a right to stay in the U.K. Tough talk on Britain’s borders is winning support from some Labour MPs feeling the heat from voters over the number of undocumented migrants arriving on Britain’s shores. Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party, which talks tough on immigration and wants Britain to leave the ECHR, came second in the seats of 89 Labour MPs at last year’s election, including Cooper’s own West Yorkshire seat. “I think there’s deep frustration at the numbers that we’ve inherited, which are, frankly, scandalous,” said Jonathan Brash, Labour MP for Hartlepool, a seat where Reform pose an electoral threat. “My constituents are very, very clear that they expect something to be done about this broken system. And so all I’ve had in response to [Cooper’s ECHR review announcement] has been positivity,” Brash added. Another Labour MP, Jake Richards, agreed, posting on X : “This government was elected on a promise to get a grip on immigration. We should not apologise for this. And if that means changing the operation of Article 8 of the ECHR then so be it.” “As the prime minister has said, we are looking at the application of Article 8 of the ECHR to ensure our immigration rules work as intended,” the Home Office said in a statement to POLITICO. “We will set out plans to reform the immigration system in our upcoming White Paper, which will be published in due course.” DÉJÀ VU The problem for Starmer is politicians have tried — and failed — to address politically unpalatable rulings made thanks to the European convention before. Starmer has long pitched himself as the antithesis of those Conservative politicians routinely suggesting Britain ignore ECHR rulings. Rajiv Shah, a former Downing Street aide who advised former Conservative prime ministers Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson on ECHR policy, said Cooper ran the risk of “sounding like a poor Tory tribute act” in announcing the review, warning she was announcing “tough-sounding measures that won’t deliver tangible results.” The 2014 Immigration Act set the domestic rules on Article 8 and deportations to be “as tough as possible within the confines of the ECHR,” he said, warning that “going significantly further would only be possible by breaching the ECHR, which the government is not willing to do.” Attorney General Richard Hermer told the Parliamentary Assembly of the European Council in January that the U.K. government would “never withdraw” from the European Convention on Human Rights or “refuse to comply with judgments of the court, or requests for interim measures given in respect of the United Kingdom.” Cooper also stressed in a BBC interview that the government continues “to support international law.”  The ECHR, which was established in the 1950s, sets out the rights and freedoms people are entitled to in 46 signatory countries. It is separate to the European Union, and the U.K. remained part of it after Brexit. ACTION NEEDED If former Tory strategists’ predictions are borne out and the review does not yield results, a minority of Starmer’s party could start calling for more radical action. Another Labour MP representing a northern England constituency privately admitted they would not be “closed to the question” of whether Britain should stay in the ECHR — though they stressed they’d be less likely to support full withdrawal than derogating from the law where there are “abuses of the spirit of what those provisions are meant to be for.” The Labour Party had to work hard to show it no longer has an “open border” brand, said the MP, who granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive issue. That view is far from universal in Labour circles. On his left flank, Starmer would likely face opposition if he were to beef up his tough on immigration rhetoric further. Labour members, including MPs, signed a statement in February criticizing the government for copying the “performative cruelty” of the Tories in its asylum policy after the Home Office promoted its growing deportation numbers, releasing footage of people being removed by plane. And Hermer, the attorney general, gave a full-throated defense of the convention to a parliamentary committee earlier this month, describing Britain’s involvement in its creation as a “point of national pride.” But Labour MPs could well come under more political pressure if voters continue to perceive the convention as a block on ministers’ ability to act on immigration. The problem for Starmer is politicians have tried — and failed — to address politically unpalatable rulings made thanks to the European convention before. | Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images Conservative politicians, and people linked to Reform UK, have discussed the idea of setting up a single-issue campaign group to leave the ECHR, according to a Conservative strategist who was also granted anonymity to speak freely.  Proponents are in search of funding and backers to create such a group — which would likely be led by a board in the model of campaign groups in the run-up to the 2016 EU referendum — to get the issue dominating conversations in Westminster again.  But pro-Brexit groups were riddled by infighting, and there would be the danger that this would be no different. “Can you imagine what a bear pit it’d be? All these people briefing against each other,” said the strategist. Sunak’s short-lived premiership was overshadowed by internal squabbling about Britain’s membership in the ECHR after its first deportation flight of asylum-seekers to Rwanda was abandoned after a last-minute intervention from the European Court of Human Rights, which rules on whether countries are complying with their treaty obligations.  The anonymous northern MP has some sympathy with Sunak’s plight. “It’s a difficult problem for the government to solve, and I think that’s probably why the last government got themselves into so much of a tangle on it,” the MP said. For that MP, and many other colleagues, Labour’s success depends on Starmer, and his ministers, succeeding where Sunak failed.

LEICESTER, England — Nigel Farage and Elon Musk are having a lovers’ tiff. But don’t expect it to derail the Brexiteer’s meticulous plan to take over the United Kingdom. The Reform UK leader this weekend strongly distanced himself from jailed far-right agitator Tommy Robinson, despite Musk — whose cash and backing he’s been openly courting — loudly demanding Robinson’s release from prison. It’s caused the first major rift between the two close allies of Donald Trump, and comes just after Farage made a big play for Musk’s help with a smile-for-the-cameras trip to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. The X-owner and tech billionaire thundered this weekend that Farage “doesn’t have what it takes” and should be replaced. It’s undoubtedly offered up a major distraction from Farage’s latest moment in the spotlight — but few observers of his steady rise think it’ll be fatal. “Nigel Farage knows the U.K. a lot better than Elon, and has been active in politics for 25 years,” said Benjamin Harnwell, a critic of Musk who has been overseeing Trump ally Steve Bannon’s proposed right-wing academy to train Europe’s populists. “Elon has been part of this movement for five minutes.” Reform’s increasing swagger was on show in the English town of Leicester this weekend, as a regional conference showed it continuing to bag defectors from Britain’s main opposition Conservative Party and sounding bullish about hurting Britain’s struggling Labour government. At the gathering Friday, the mood was largely celebratory as over a thousand members saluted the party’s progress in last year’s general election. But the Robinson row wasn’t far from members’ minds. “Listen to Tommy Robinson,” came a heckle from one member of the crowd during MP Lee Anderson’s speech. After a second pro-Robinson heckle, a visibly angry Anderson told the man to “shut up or get out.” “I like Tommy and think he’s been treated awfully,” a long-time Reform UK activist and organizer said in Leicester. “But he and Reform are separate and it should stay that way.” The same person argued that any allying with Robinson — who co-founded the race-baiting English Defense League and was jailed for breaching a court order put in place because of his repeated libeling of a Syrian schoolboy — would serve only as a distraction from Farage’s wider goal of upending British politics.  “Personally, I very strongly think Tommy Robinson is part of the solution rather than the problem,” said Harnwell. “But the fact is, the U.K. isn’t there yet, and is a very long way from being so.” Tommy Robinson co-founded the race-baiting English Defense League and was jailed for breaching a court order put in place because of his repeated libeling of a Syrian schoolboy. | Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images As for Farage himself, his allies argue that despite Musk’s proximity to Trump, the Reform leader’s longstanding relationship with the incoming president is strong enough to survive any spat. In his speech to the faithful in Leicester on Friday, Farage aped Trump by saying he plans to “make Britain great again.”  And it’s that plan — a step-by-step capturing of key parts of the U.K. — and not the noise from Musk that’s likely to keep incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer up at night. SHARPENING UP The Brexiteer-in-chief, who stunned Westminster in last year’s election by returning to the helm of Reform and winning a long-coveted seat in Parliament — has spent much of this year trying to professionalize his Reform UK party, shaking up its comms operation, bagging Tory defectors, and getting serious about taking the fight to Labour. Farage and four other candidates made it into the House of Commons in July’s election — winning more than four million votes for his anti-immigration, populist outfit and putting the Conservatives on the backfoot. They came second in 98 seats, 89 of which were behind Labour. Now, he wants to use a series of local and regional elections to show Reform can replace the Conservatives, booted out of office in July, as the natural party of the right. “What we need to do as a party is demonstrate that we can win at the ballot box, that we can be a formidable electoral force,” Reform UK Chair Zia Yusuf said in an interview with POLITICO. The aim is to bring it more into line with other successful national outfits — and avoid the kind of controversies over openly racist candidates that flared up during the summer campaign. That may in part explain Farage’s desire to swiftly distance himself from Robinson, despite Musk’s vociferous backing for the jailed activist. Reform is already eyeing elections next May as a milestone on its path to power. Seats on 21 county councils and 10 unitary authorities in England are up for grabs, and, with Labour facing a bumpy first five months in office, Farage fancies his chances.  POLITICO’s poll of polls shows Labour — who won a thumping House of Commons majority last summer — just five points clear of Reform. Ahead of May’s votes, Reform has set up hundreds of branches across the country, with the aim of allowing local members to target areas they know best. Reform claimed 100,000 members in November, and has been busy urging Tory councillors to defect. The local build-up has already allowed Reform to stand in numerous council by-elections, where it has won seats from Labour and the Tories. “We’re very excited by the progress, but we’re not complacent by any means,” Yusuf said. Reform claimed 100,000 members in November, and has been busy urging Tory councillors to defect. | Leon Neal/Getty Images Still, it’s an uphill climb for a party that is building its infrastructure as it goes. Even with burgeoning branches and a growing membership Farage likes to crow about, Reform cannot count on the kind of deep institutional experience Labour and the Tories possess when it comes to local fights — not to mention the kind of data on household voting which allows for precise targeting in a tight race.  “We are working very much from a start-up perspective … and it’s going to be damn hard,” acknowledged Reform’s former Director of Communications Gawain Towler. “It’s like you’ve got a great mass of organic material and we are having to push through it and put the nerve system into that organic material piecemeal.” FIRST, WE TAKE SCOTLAND If he does deal Labour and the Tories a bloody nose in May, expect Farage’s attention to then turn swiftly to the next big test — elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd in 2026. Political scientist John Curtice wrote late last year that, were elections to the Scottish Parliament held now, Farage “could win as many as a dozen seats” — a big leap for a party that currently has no representation there. Scotland’s semi-proportional voting system offers a way in for Reform, even if it continues to poll at just over 10 percent in the country. Farage has a checkered history in Scotland — and was famously being greeted by angry Scots on one visit in 2013, where he was locked in a pub for his own protection. He didn’t visit Scotland at all in the lead up to this year’s general election — with his party describing it as too “dangerous.” The ruling Scottish National Party has long pointed to the non-breakthrough of parties led by Farage — and the relative unpopularity of Brexit in Scotland — as examples of how Scotland’s values and politics differ from England. Yet others doubt Scotland is quite so immune to the Farage charm. “The SNP are desperate to say Scotland is different and there’s no market for this politics here,” a senior elected Scottish Labour figure, granted anonymity to speak frankly, like others in this story, said. “It’s dangerously complacent and doesn’t square with the evidence.” Farage’s deputy, Richard Tice, has even argued his party could be the “kingmakers” in Scotland after the election, which is set to be tightly fought between the long-reigning SNP and a Scottish Labour Party which has been bruised by Starmer’s tricky start to life in Downing Street.  Reform’s catch-all populist approach poses a challenge to both parties — as well as to the center-right Scottish Conservatives — and those who met Reform voters on the doorsteps in last year’s general election campaign say Farage peeled votes from all corners. “[Reform voters] came from everywhere, there were SNP voters, and former Tories and Labour, who said they were considering Reform,” a former SNP MP who lost their seat in July said. “What they had in common was they felt scunnered with everyone,” they added, using a Scottish slang term for deep annoyance. WELSH WOES An even more winnable prize in 2026 looks like Wales, where Reform is looking to leap over the Conservatives and become the official opposition to Labour.  In a statement of intent, Reform launched its general election manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, a former Welsh mining town struggling with deindustrialization. It came second at July’s general election in 13 Welsh constituencies. And the party held a conference in Newport — once a steel powerhouse — just last month. In a statement of intent, Reform launched its general election manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, a former Welsh mining town struggling with deindustrialization. | Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images “They’re areas which have perfectly legitimate reasons to not be happy with the status quo in Wales at the moment,” noted Will Hayward, a freelance investigative journalist who specializes in Welsh politics.  Indeed, the state of its main opponents means the ground looks fertile for a Reform revolt in Wales. “To a certain extent, you make your own luck, but you ride other people’s misfortune,” said Towler. Welsh Labour has led its devolved government for 25 years. It’s faced internal turmoil recently, cycling through two first ministers in quick succession. Meanwhile the Conservatives, Labour’s main challengers in Wales, are facing their own deep disarray. The Welsh Tories are, said Hayward, a “bit of a busted flush” — and they’ve so far struggled to see off the Reform threat, despite doing their best to ape Farage. “They’re essentially a Reform light,” said Hayward. But he added: “ I just don’t think you can run an anti-establishment style party when you’re the Conservative Party.” “Reform’s best prospects will come if they’re seen as an acceptable alternative to Tories in places where Tories can’t win,” said Robert Ford, a University of Manchester academic who co-wrote “Revolt on the Right” about the rise of Farage’s former outfit, UKIP. POWER TO THE PEOPLE  Farage, meanwhile, has been quietly trying to reshape Reform behind the scenes. While the party was originally set up as Farage’s personal vehicle, he last year handed more control of the outfit to its members. They can now adapt the party structure, and are able to remove the leader if at least 50 percent of the membership write to the chair requesting a vote of no confidence. It’s not a selfless move: The hope is that expanded powers will make members more willing to get out in the rain and campaign. But it’s not without risk for Farage. “Farage’s perennial complaint about UKIP was its membership was a mess and its internal democratic structures were a source of no end of trouble and frustration,” said Ford. Reform is optimistic that an in-house vetting team sifting through prospective candidates will clean up its act. Towler said internal vetters were the first people employed after the election, with scrutiny of prospective candidates going down to a parish council level. “We are learning to walk before we try and run,” said Towler. The party, he said, rejects a third of prospective candidates hoping to run for local government. He conceded, however: “Some bad apples will slip through. That’s the nature of the world. But nothing is perfect in this naughty world.” While a chunk of cash from the billionaire Musk would boost Reform significantly — worried Conservatives feared up to $100 million from the X owner — Farage hardly seems to be hard-up without him. Billionaire property developer Nick Candy’s defection from the Tories to Reform this month and promise of a seven-figure donation as the incoming party treasurer will go down a treat. The party only has 16 full time members of staff, so there’s plenty of room to grow.  And despite Musk’s headline-grabbing call for a major shake-up at the top of Reform, the party remains very much the Farage show.  “It is a party with one giant and a bunch of invisible dwarves,” argued Ford. The leader remains “head and shoulders and belt and braces and knees above everyone else,” he said. So long as he keeps winning, that seems to suit his key lieutenants just fine. “Nigel has universal support amongst our members,” said Yusuf. “He’s going to be the next prime minister of this country and hopefully serve multiple terms.” Jamie Dettmer contributed to this report.

Hundreds of thousands of people in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria are facing the prospect of winter without heating or power after Russia ended the flow of natural gas to the unrecognized republic. Early Wednesday morning, local authorities in the disputed territory announced they were cutting off supplies of hot water and heating for apartment buildings in the face of the gas shortage. They advised people to seal gaps in their windows as temperatures hover around freezing. Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom turned off the taps earlier Wednesday following expiration of a long-term transit agreement that allowed it to export via pipelines running across neighboring Ukraine. Speaking to POLITICO, Moldova’s national security advisor, Stanislav Secrieru, accused Russia of “weaponizing” its energy exports “to destabilize Moldova economically and socially, weaken the pro-reform government ahead of the elections, and manufacture political demand for the return of pro-Russian forces to power.” According to Secrieru, Moldova — which has been an ardent supporter of Ukraine since the start of Moscow’s invasion, and has secured EU candidate status — isn’t facing an “energy crisis — it’s a deliberately induced security crisis and a shaping operation ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections.” Pro-Western President Maia Sandu and her government face another key nationwide vote by summer after the country’s EU referendum passed by the narrowest of margins following an alleged Russian influence campaign. Sandu offered humanitarian aid for Transnistria, but said local leaders have so far rejected it. According to key European policymakers, Transnistria is a foremost hurdle for Moldova’s accession to the bloc, with more than a thousand Russian troops stationed in the separatist-run region. Transnistria had free access to gas as part of a sweetheart deal with the Kremlin that allowed it to sell electricity to the rest of Moldova, funding local salaries and pensions in Transnistria. Last year, Moldovan officials told POLITICO that ending the country’s dependency on Russian gas could spell the end of Transnistria’s de facto independence. “We buy electricity from the region not because we have to, but because the alternative is to throw the region into a humanitarian crisis,” said then-Energy Minister Victor Parlicov.

LONDON — Peter Mandelson, a controversial Labour big beast, has been picked to become Britain’s new ambassador to the United States, the government in London formally announced late Friday. No. 10 Downing Street confirmed widespread reporting that the ex-European trade commissioner, who twice resigned from Tony Blair’s government, will be taking on the key Transatlantic diplomacy role as U.S. president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. He will take up the position early next year. In a statement, Prime Minister Keir Starmer talked up Mandelson’s “unrivaled experience” and said he would take the U.K.-U.S. “partnership from strength to strength.” “It is a great honor to serve the country in this way,” Mandelson said as his role was announced. “We face challenges in Britain but also big opportunities and it will be a privilege to work with the government to land those opportunities, both for our economy and our nation’s security, and to advance our historic alliance with the United States.” Mandelson is a veteran political operator who helped overhaul Britain’s center-left Labour Party in the 1990s as it returned from a lengthy spell in political purgatory. He twice quit amid scandal during Blair’s time in office — but made a striking frontline comeback during Gordon Brown’s administration. A fierce critic of Brexit, Mandelson served as European commissioner for trade for a four-year stint in the 2000s, and has a seat in the House of Lords, the upper chamber of the British parliament. IN-TRAY Mandelson will inherit a packed in-tray from Karen Pierce, who has been in post since 2018 and was praised by Starmer Friday as “an outstanding representative of our country abroad.” Crucial issues likely to dominate his first few months include trying to shore up U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump, and persuading the Trump administration not to hammer the U.K. economy with tariffs on imports. Simon Fraser, the former head of Britain’s diplomatic arm, the Foreign Office, described Mandelson as “a big political hitter, well connected in our government, and I think that’s what we need with the Trump administration.” But Mandelson’s views on two issues — China and the EU — as well as his reputation as a pro-globalization liberal used to mingling with the elite, could make him an awkward fit in Trump’s Washington D.C. He sat on the board of the official Remain campaign during the EU referendum in 2016, then advocated for a second referendum to overturn the decision after Brexit won. By contrast, Trump once styled himself as “Mr Brexit” and has built strong and enduring ties with leading British Euroskeptic Nigel Farage. “Mandelson is technically of the kind of establishment swamp that Trump has often talked about draining, and [Trump] will also have Farage in his ear on this saying he’s going to keep the U.K. too close to the EU,” warned Allie Renison, a former policy adviser to Kemi Badenoch as British trade secretary, and now at consultancy SEC Newgate. The incoming ambassador “has a tendency to talk out of both sides of his mouth,” she said, although such an approach “may well be needed” in reassuring both Washington and Brussels over the U.K.’s direction of travel. She described his record as EU trade commissioner as a “mixed bag,” pointing out that he helped bag a deal with South Korea seen as “a boon for U.K. auto exports,” but was also commissioner when the Doha round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations collapsed over U.S. objections. But Pascal Lamy, who was director general of the WTO and was in post when the Doha round stalled, praised him as a “politician with an intellectual side, creative on the ideological level.” Mandelson is, he said, “a rather remarkable personality who likes to be seen, who likes money, who likes parties, hence this sometimes sulfurous reputation that he has.” Mandelson is not, Lamy said, “a technician, but he is a very good politician.” “He works and communicates very very well,” Lamy added. “He has an ego, let’s say, above the average, but hey, he has the intellectual means to afford that.” John Alty, who previously ran Britain’s trade department and worked with Mandelson back in the Brown administration, recalled the incoming ambassador as “very effective — and I doubt he has lost that capability.” “In any case, Peter Mandelson does not go unnoticed anywhere,” said Lamy. “Wherever he goes, whatever he does, he always gets noticed. He is an extraordinary personality.” CHINA RECORD On China, Mandelson has called for fresh economic dialogue between Britain and Beijing. That may clash with the hawkish views of some of Trump’s picks, including his choice for secretary of state, Marco Rubio. “It is absurd to imagine putting a country of such weight in the naughty corner,” Mandelson wrote in 2018 of relations between China and the U.S. during Trump’s first spell in the White House. Mandelson has also called on the U.K. government to get over its ongoing feud with Trump ally Elon Musk, warning it would be “unwise to ignore” the tech tycoon despite his strident criticism of British Prime Minister Starmer and flirtation with Farage’s Reform party. Mandelson, who has faced scrutiny for his post-government business interests, has meanwhile “transitioned into a new role” at the lobbying consultancy he co-founded, Global Counsel announced Friday morning. The agency vowed to “watch from the sidelines as he represents King and country in Washington D.C.” Others were less thrilled. John McDonnell, a key ally of left-wing former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, of whom Mandelson was a constant critic, said: “For many reasons associated with Peter Mandelson’s history in and out of political office many will feel Keir has lost all sense of political judgement on this decision.” Dan Bloom and Emilio Casalicchio contributed to this report. Camille Gijs contributed from Brussels.

LONDON — Peter Mandelson looks set for a new life in the United States after a long and sometimes-controversial career in British public life. An announcement confirming him as the government’s choice for next U.K. ambassador to Washington is expected from No.10 Downing Street Friday. It’s a remarkable next chapter for Mandelson, who is staunchly anti-Brexit and supports more cooperation with China. Those factors alone could make him a tough sell in Donald Trump’s Washington. Yet his political savvy, deep trade experience and outsize character are all being talked up as assets when it comes to dealing with the U.S. president-elect and his team. As rumors swirled about Mandelson’s potential appointment last month, POLITICO spoke to key figures on both sides of the Atlantic to find out how a Labour veteran might fare with the Make America Great Again crowd. ESTABLISHMENT OPERATOR A savvy political operator who helped return the center-left Labour Party to power in the 1990s, Mandelson is firmly part of the British political establishment, with a seat in the House of Lords, the upper chamber of the British parliament. After helping new Prime Minister Keir Starmer enter Downing Street last summer, ending another long stretch in in the cold for the party, the former Cabinet minister in Tony Blair’s government is now set to succeed Karen Pierce — current inhabitant of the lavish ambassador’s residence in the exclusive Embassy Row enclave in the north west of the city. A bête noire of the Labour left, the pro-business and well-connected Mandelson has had a storied career so far — and he’s no stranger to the headlines. Mandelson was forced to resign twice from government over scandals and has a reputation for saccharine politeness in public but ruthless political maneuvering behind the scenes, winning him the nickname “the Prince of Darkness.” Despite his media prowess — he is known in Westminster for taking acerbic tones with reporters who cross him. In 2023 Mandelson’s past links with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, who referred to him as “Petie,” were revealed. And a similarly close relationship with the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska caused him headaches when it was revealed in 2008, as have other dealings with the global super rich. But it’s Mandelson’s views on Europe, China and trade that could make his anticipated new role courting the Trump administration in Washington a tricky one. For a start, Donald Trump enthusiastically backed Brexit. Peter Mandelson did not. The Labour peer sat on the board of the official Remain campaign during the EU referendum in 2016, then advocated for a second referendum to overturn the decision after Brexit won. He understands well how the political institutions in Brussels work, having served as a European Commissioner for trade between 2005 and 2008, and having covered the trade role in government beforehand. After Trump won the U.S. presidential election last month, Mandelson told the Times Britain can “have our cake and eat it” on trade, building closer ties with both the EU and U.S. rather than choosing between them. It’s a policy area the next ambassador to the U.S. will spend much of their time negotiating, with U.K. hopes of finally securing a trade deal balanced by fears Trump will carry out his threats to impose tariffs. Dan Mullaney, a former assistant U.S. trade representative under Trump and other presidents, who crossed paths with Mandelson in Brussels, agreed with his analysis that the U.K. would not necessarily need to choose between closer ties with Washington or Brussels. “I don’t think it’s necessarily a binary choice,” he said. “You can have deeper integration with the U.S. that is consistent with a deeper integration with the EU.” Mullaney, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, argued the Labour peer could be well placed as a middle-man between the U.K. and U.S. on trade. “Having someone from the U.K. here in Washington who knows all three systems — the EU system, the U.K. system, and knows the United States and knows trade — I think that’s a very useful skill set for the challenges that are to come,” he said. He added that Mandelson was “pragmatic” despite being a free trader at heart, and described him as “a good interlocutor on sometimes tense trade issues.” However, for Mandelson to make progress, Trump would have to forgive him for condemning the past and future president’s America First approach to trade in a 2018 article. In the piece, the peer said it was “necessary to recognise Mr Trump’s behavior for what it is: he is a bully and a mercantilist who thinks the U.S. will gain in trade only when others are losing.” PETER AND THE DRAGON Another awkward conversation between Mandelson and the MAGA crowd would be on China, after Trump picked hardcore China hawks for senior positions, including his choice for secretary of state, Marco Rubio. Mandelson has advocated fresh economic dialogue between Britain and Beijing, using a speech at the University of Hong Kong earlier this year to call on China to reciprocate the new Labour government’s desire to mend the relationship. He spent seven years as president of the Great Britain-China Center, a non-departmental Foreign Office body dedicated to U.K. relations with China, and was the sole Labour peer to vote against an amendment aimed at calling out alleged genocide in Xinjiang province. “It is absurd to imagine putting a country of such weight in the naughty corner,” Mandelson wrote in 2018 of relations between China and the U.S. during Trump’s first spell in the White House. “What’s truly absurd is to think someone as pro-Beijing as Mandelson is a good pick to be our man in D.C.”, said Luke de Pulford, executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, a global network opposing Chinese government practises. But Eddie Lister, a Conservative former Downing Street adviser who dealt with Trump during the Boris Johnson administration, said sending Mandelson to Washington could work as a useful “balancing act” with the U.S. “Britain’s interests aren’t to be a hawk on China,” said Lister, who has his own controversial links to Beijing. “Britain’s interests are to work with China. But we’ve also got to work with America. So there’s a real balancing act here.” Reform U.K. Leader Nigel Farage — a close British friend of Trump — had once talked himself up for the job. But he has described Mandelson as “an intelligent figure who knows his brief well, as I saw when he worked with the European Commission.” He told his GB News show last month: “While I’m not certain he’s the ideal fit for dealing with Trump directly, his intellect would at least command respect.” Most of the Trump supporters POLITICO approached last month had never heard of Mandelson, although he is said to have relations with Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager reportedly in the running to be Trump’s treasury secretary. “Mandelson ticks a lot of boxes: his U.K. government position; his Labour affiliation and strong links with the U.S,” said one Washington-based business figure. “The question is whether he has the network and access to a Trump administration.” But Myron Brilliant, a former executive vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which took Mandelson and Global Counsel on as a client in Europe, said most people in Washington were in the same boat when it came to contact-building with team Trump. “Even those of us who live in Washington have to have that muscle,” he said. “Peter is a pro. He will know he has to build bridges with president Trump and his team.” Dan Bloom contributed reporting.

WASHINGTON — The hot tip to become the next U.K. ambassador to Washington is anti-Brexit and supports more cooperation with China. Best of luck with the MAGA crowd, Peter Mandelson. A veteran political operator who helped transform Britain’s center-left Labour movement in the 1990s and return it to power after almost two decades, Mandelson now sits atop the U.K. political establishment with a seat in the House of Lords, the upper chamber of the British parliament. He is also in the running to become chancellor of Oxford University. But that doesn’t mean the Labour grandee has lost his itch to be at the center of power. After helping new Prime Minister Keir Starmer enter Downing Street last summer, ending another wilderness period for the party, the former Cabinet minister in Tony Blair’s government is now considered red hot favorite to be appointed British ambassador to Washington. Numerous reports have tipped Mandelson to replace Karen Pierce — current inhabitant of the lavish ambassador’s residence in the exclusive Embassy Row enclave in the north west of the city. Her tenure is due to end in the coming months, and while there is speculation she may be asked to stay on during Donald Trump’s transition to capitalize on her contacts in the president-elect’s team, a successor will be needed at some point in the new year. British government officials are not shutting down suggestions Mandelson could be heading for DC, and the man himself has been talking up his prospects while insisting he hasn’t — yet — been approached for the role.  He told a Times Radio podcast he could serve as chancellor at Oxford university (a role he has applied for) and British ambassador to the U.S. at the same time — using each post to benefit the other.  “If by some chance these two things were to happen, they are not incompatible with each other,” he insisted.  A GLOBALIST IN AMERICA (FIRST) A bête noire of the Labour left, the pro-business and well-connected Mandelson has had a long and notorious career in British public life. He was forced to resign twice from government over scandals and has a reputation for saccharine politeness in public but ruthless political maneuvering behind the scenes, winning him the nickname “the Prince of Darkness.” Despite his media prowess — he is known in Westminster for taking acerbic tones with reporters who cross him — embarrassing headlines seem to follow him around.  Numerous reports have tipped Peter Mandelson to replace Karen Pierce. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images In 2023 Mandelson’s past links with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, who referred to him as “Petie,” were revealed. And a similarly close relationship with the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska caused him headaches when it was revealed in 2008, as have other dealings with the global super rich.  But it’s Mandelson’s views on Europe, China and trade that could make his anticipated new role courting the Trump administration in Washington a tricky one.  For a start, Donald Trump enthusiastically backed Brexit. Peter Mandelson did not.  The Labour peer sat on the board of the official Remain campaign during the EU referendum in 2016, then advocated for a second referendum to overturn the decision after Brexit won. He understands well how the political institutions in Brussels work, having served as a European Commissioner for trade between 2005 and 2008, and having covered the trade role in government beforehand.  After Trump won the U.S. presidential election this month, Mandelson told the Times Britain can “have our cake and eat it” on trade, building closer ties with both the EU and U.S. rather than choosing between them. It’s a policy area the next ambassador to the U.S. will spend much of their time negotiating, with U.K. hopes of finally securing a trade deal balanced by fears Trump will carry out his threats to impose tariffs. Dan Mullaney, a former assistant U.S. trade representative under Trump and other presidents, who crossed paths with Mandelson in Brussels, agreed with his analysis that the U.K. would not necessarily need to choose between closer ties with Washington or Brussels. “I don’t think it’s necessarily a binary choice,” he said. “You can have deeper integration with the U.S. that is consistent with a deeper integration with the EU.” Mullaney, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, argued the Labour peer could be well placed as a middle-man between the U.K. and U.S. on trade.  “Having someone from the U.K. here in Washington who knows all three systems — the EU system, the U.K. system, and knows the United States and knows trade — I think that’s a very useful skill set for the challenges that are to come,” he said.  He added that Mandelson was “pragmatic” despite being a free trader at heart, and described him as “a good interlocutor on sometimes tense trade issues.” However, for Mandelson to make progress, Trump would have to forgive him for condemning the past and future president’s America First approach to trade in a 2018 article. In the piece, the peer said it was “necessary to recognise Mr Trump’s behavior for what it is: he is a bully and a mercantilist who thinks the U.S. will gain in trade only when others are losing.” After Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election this month, Peter Mandelson told the Times Britain can “have our cake and eat it” on trade. | Rebecca Noble/Getty Images PETER AND THE DRAGON Another awkward conversation between Mandelson and the MAGA crowd would be on China, after Trump picked hardcore China hawks for senior positions, including his choice for secretary of state, Marco Rubio.  Mandelson has advocated fresh economic dialogue between Britain and Beijing, using a speech at the University of Hong Kong last month to call on China to reciprocate the new Labour government’s desire to mend the relationship. He spent seven years as president of the Great Britain-China Center, a non-departmental Foreign Office body dedicated to U.K. relations with China, and was the sole Labour peer to vote against an amendment aimed at calling out alleged genocide in Xinjiang province. In September he accused the former Conservative government of operating a “boycott” of Hong Kong. “It is absurd to imagine putting a country of such weight in the naughty corner,” Mandelson wrote in 2018 of relations between China and the U.S. during Trump’s first spell in the White House. “What’s truly absurd is to think someone as pro-Beijing as Mandelson is a good pick to be our man in D.C.”, said Luke de Pulford, executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, a global network opposing Chinese government practises. But Eddie Lister, a Conservative former Downing Street adviser who dealt with Trump during the Boris Johnson administration, said sending Mandelson to Washington could work as a useful “balancing act” with the U.S.  “Britain’s interests aren’t to be a hawk on China,” said Lister, who has his own controversial links to Beijing. “Britain’s interests are to work with China. But we’ve also got to work with America. So there’s a real balancing act here.” Mandelson’s firm, Global Counsel, has advised Chinese businesses including TikTok and the fashion giant Shein  — as well as a Chinese state-owned company in 2014. He has since stepped back from direct Global Counsel work. MAKE DO AND MAND Lister is not the sole unexpected voice of support Mandelson has for the mooted move to DC.  Reform U.K. Leader Nigel Farage — a close British friend of Trump — last week backed him as a “viable” candidate too.  “He’s an intelligent figure who knows his brief well, as I saw when he worked with the European Commission,” Farage told GB News. “While I’m not certain he’s the ideal fit for dealing with Trump directly, his intellect would at least command respect.” One former senior diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, predicted the U.K. would pick a more low profile candidate from within the non-partisan civil service for the role, in order to avoid the potential drama of putting such a high-profile name in Trump’s path. Reform U.K. Leader Nigel Farage — a close British friend of Trump — last week backed him as a “viable” candidate too. | Carl Court/Getty Images However, Lister argued the British ambassador to the U.S. should be a political appointment because the White House administration “needs to know the person they are talking to actually has the ear of the prime minister.” “He’s a good choice,” he insisted about Mandelson. “You’ve got a negotiator and a grown up, which I think is super important.” The challenge for the center-left grandee could be building contacts in MAGA land — something the outgoing Pierce is heralded for. Most of the Trump supporters POLITICO approached had never heard of Mandelson, although he is said to have relations with Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager reportedly in the running to be Trump’s treasury secretary. “Mandelson ticks a lot of boxes: his U.K. government position; his Labour affiliation and strong links with the U.S,” said one Washington-based business figure. “The question is whether he has the network and access to a Trump administration.” But Myron Brilliant, a former executive vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which took Mandelson and Global Counsel on as a client in Europe, said most people in Washington were in the same boat when it came to contact-building with team Trump. “Even those of us who live in Washington have to have that muscle,” he said. “Peter is a pro. He will know he has to build bridges with president Trump and his team.”

LONDON — Partial to a serving of lemon-drizzled fried calamari rings while kicking back in a Mediterranean seaside bar? They’re about to be served with a hefty dollop of politics.  U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing pressure to win concessions from the European Union over hefty post-Brexit trading tariffs placed on squid and other food items entering the continent from the Falkland Islands. Behind the scenes, the British overseas territory has been furiously lobbying the new U.K. Labour government to ensure trade barriers on squid imports are included in upcoming “reset” talks with Brussels.  Starmer has promised to do “everything we can” to reduce trade tariffs, while describing the relationship with the Falklands as “personal” (his uncle had a brush with death during the 1982 war with Argentina over the territory.) But politicians and officials in the Falklands administration are concerned they could be overlooked if Brussels uses the islands’ demands as a bargaining chip to win concessions in other areas British voters may find unpalatable.  After all, the Falkland Islands (population: 3,662) are nearly 8,000 miles across the Atlantic Ocean from Britain and of fading importance to many in the U.K. STARMER’S SQUID GAME Falklanders’ fears about their status became a reality with Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the then-prime minister at the end of 2020 failed to include the Falklands and other overseas territories. Though never part of the single market, as one of the U.K’s self-governing overseas territories the Falklands always enjoyed preferential access and paid no tariffs while Britain was an EU member state. But now tariffs of 6 percent are charged on squid, of up to 18 percent on finned fish such as tuna and salmon and 42 percent on lamb (the archipelago has around 500,000 sheep — 136 for every Falkland Islander.)  Though never part of the single market, as one of the U.K’s self-governing overseas territories the Falklands always enjoyed preferential access. | Miguel Riopa/AFP via Getty Images Those are high trade barriers, given 94 percent of the Falklands’ fisheries products are destined for the EU single market and fishing accounts for around half the territory’s GDP. In 2023 alone, fishing tariffs hit £15 million.  ‘HEAVILY DEPENDENT’ Teslyn Barkman, a seventh generation Islander who holds the fisheries brief as one of eight elected members of the Falkland Islands legislative assembly, said the tariffs on top of environmental and geo-political challenges, such as the fraught relationship with Argentina (just a few hundred kilometres to the west), are a real dent to the islands’ economy. “We are a community that’s very heavily dependent on that one sector, so even a small loss in revenue is quite significant to our village — which is running a country,” she said over a dodgy internet connection as the winds blew a “hoolie” through the capital of Stanley. Catches primarily of loligo squid are taken in joint ventures with Spain, by vessels to the Galician port of Vigo to enter the single market and beyond. “If you’re in Spain and enjoying a lovely bowl of calamari, there is about a one in two chance that it’s come from the Falkland Islands,” Barkman said. For that reason, she reckoned the EU granting concessions — “ideally” back to tariff free squid sales — should be a “win win.” It’s a message the Falklands has been pushing to British ministers since the EU referendum back in 2016. And those dining in Spanish seafood bars are being warned that the hit to trawlers’ profits could soon be passed onto consumers with costlier calamari. “It just doesn’t make sense as it currently stands,” Barkman said of the current trading arrangements. She added that Stephen Doughty, Britain’s new minister for Europe and overseas territories, had offered “strong support.”  A Falklands official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said they had the impression that Nick Thomas-Symonds, who as Cabinet Office minister will lead negotiations with the EU for Britain, would fight the Islanders’ corner when the talks kick off next year.  Miguel Riopa/AFP via Getty Images However, despite the optimism and the displays of support in Britain, the administration in Stanley is aware that Brussels is bound to make their own demands in return for any concessions. The European Commission declined to comment. Fishing rights have been one of the many controversial aspects of Brexit, with Starmer and his European interlocutors already on course for a legal battle over sand eels and puffins. The Falklands official quoted above described being “alive to the challenges,” citing fishing rights and quotas as posing a particular dilemma in the talks, and recognized that the EU could seek to leverage these in return for a better deal for the Falklands. “But this is the last option, I think. We’ve explored everything else. So if we are to have them [the tariffs] lifted, this is kind of it,” they said. FEELING HOPEFUL Barkman said she remained an “eternal optimist” despite recognizing the islands had been burned before by “missed opportunities” under previous administrations.  “We’re really hopeful,” she said. “To hear such a positive and strong message from the prime minister himself, was incredibly reassuring.” One EU diplomat told POLITICO that while there was “no appetite” to reopen the trade deal there would be an “opportunity for agreements sitting alongside the TCA.” Ed Davey, leader of the pro-EU Liberal Democrats, used a weekly session of prime minister’s questions earlier this month to call for Starmer to remember the Falklands’ fishermen during negotiations. Starmer responded by saying his uncle was “torpedoed defending the Falklands” during the 10-week conflict in 1982, when Argentina’s military dictator ordered his forces to invade the archipelago to seize the islands about 300 miles east of Argentina.  The PM’s uncle survived two bombs being dropped by fighter jets on his ship, HMS Antelope, but two British service personnel were killed.  “It is personal to me,” Starmer told members of parliament, as he vowed to “do everything we can to make it easier for all businesses to trade more freely so that we can grow our economy.” Just last month Javier Milei, the chainsaw-wielding libertarian president of Argentina, told the Financial Times he believes the Falklands — or Las Islas Malvinas as they’re referred to in Buenos Aires — “in the long term will become Argentine again,” citing Britain’s recent deal to hand Mauritius the Chagos Islands.  THE NOISY NEIGHBOURS This still rumbling dispute bolsters Barkman’s calls to shore up the Falklands’ fishing industry. She argues that “any opportunity that looks like a way to remove prosperity or economic opportunity for the Falklands tends to be taken” by the government in Buenos Aires. “And we’re very, very aware that currently, the neighbors” — as she describes Argentina — “aren’t being as aggressive as they have been before but this changes with a pretty regular cycle. So it’s very difficult to maintain the level of risk.” The need to defend the islands is firm in the consciousness of older Britons, but Falklanders are conscious that they must continue to make the case for their right to self-determination (only three islanders voted against maintaining allegiance with Britain in a 2013 referendum.)    Falklands’ diplomats engage in a great deal of outreach with U.K. MPs and are making considerable efforts with the new tranche of younger members that Labour’s electoral landslide ushered in. Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard flew to the Falklands Friday to meet troops stationed there in an effort to underline the U.K.’s continuing support for the territory.  A government spokesperson said: “The U.K. understands the importance of tariff free trading with the EU for the Falkland Islanders and ministers and officials will continue to work closely with the Falkland Islands government.  “We will protect the interests of our fishers and fulfill our international commitments to protect the marine environment.” But opposition MPs are on alert for the Falklands being left out. Lib Dems’ Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Calum Miller called for ministers to ensure the Falklands are “properly included” in negotiations “so that these tariffs can be cut, and British citizens fishing off the Falklands can sail proudly under the Union Jack once more,” a suggestion that joint ventures may be opting to fly the Spanish flag to beat the tariffs. It is clear that coming to office as the first post-Brexit Labour PM, Starmer was always going to have to navigate vastly competing interests. Adding to the mix, the legacy of colonialism brings yet another unique challenge for his much vaunted European reset. Jon Stone contributed reporting from Brussels.

Elections in Moldova and Georgia this week are turning into a sobering reality check for the European Union as it finds itself increasingly on the back foot in its battle for influence with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For years, the EU has been confident that its liberal, democratic agenda will ultimately steer Georgia and Moldova away from the Kremlin’s orbit and toward the West — a confidence boosted by polls suggesting both countries have big popular majorities for EU membership. This week’s elections now suggest that optimistic EU vision is increasingly uncertain. Moldova voted for EU membership by only the narrowest of margins on Sunday — with 50.4 percent of voters in favor — and the populist Georgian Dream party that is expected to win on Saturday is set to pursue an illiberal agenda that will make EU membership impossible. For the EU, the determination of its adversary in Moscow is daunting. It is evident that the Kremlin — despite its heavy commitments in Ukraine — is still willing to pour big money into vote buying and disinformation campaigns to reassert its stamp on former Soviet territories. In both Moldova and Georgia, Moscow is making headway with a propaganda narrative that countries pursuing a pro-EU or pro-NATO agenda are playing with fire, recommending neutrality as the antidote to conflict. Aghast at the result, Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu complained of Russia’s “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.” While recent polls suggested a majority of some 60 percent were in favor of joining the bloc, it looked for much of the night as if the anti-EU camp would win. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was quick to stress the tight result was the result of Russian dirty tricks, and insisted Brussels would press ahead with getting Moldova into the bloc. “In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future,” she said. Still, the result in Moldova lays bare the limits to EU influence just as Putin is styling himself as part of a broader anti-Western alliance. On Tuesday, Putin will host Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and more than 15 other heads of state for talks in the Russian city of Kazan. Moscow has pushed for the admission of a handful of new countries into the BRICS format, designed to band developing economies together to challenge Euro-American interests, and wants to use it to challenge the U.S. dollar. BRIBES AND DISINFORMATION There is little doubt about the scale of Russian intervention in Moldova. In a statement following the count, the leader of the National Democratic Institute’s observation mission, former Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, reported widespread efforts to undermine the process. Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu complained of Russia’s “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.” | Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images “The greatest threat to the integrity of these elections has been a broad and concerted campaign of malign foreign influence from Russia collaborating with Moldovan actors through information manipulation, vote buying, and other illicit financing of political activity,” he said. To achieve even the slimmest of majorities in that context, other monitors said, was a significant achievement. “Moldovans demonstrated resilience in the face of unprecedented foreign interference,” said U.S. Congressman Peter Roskam, who led an International Republican Institute observer mission. Moldovan officials repeatedly sounded the alarm over huge sums of Russian money being funnelled into the accounts of ordinary voters in the weeks leading up to the vote. The authorities accuse Moscow and its local proxies of seeking to use cash to push people into opposing EU membership and uniting behind a pro-Russian challenger standing against Sandu. “We are talking about up to 20 percent of corrupted votes, and an estimated €150 million interference operation by Russia,” said Valeriu Pasha, program manager at the Moldova-based think-tank WatchDog.MD Community. “Without this massive vote bribing the result would look totally different. So in these very harsh conditions, the fact that we still have a majority yes-vote, is already a very good result.” A TRANSFERABLE MODEL Speaking to POLITICO ahead of the vote on Sunday, former Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said the referendum had been called to “settle the domestic conversation in the country” before voters head to the polls in next year’s parliamentary elections, where Sandu and her allies face a host of pro-Russian opposition parties. That gambit appears to have failed. Instead of demonstrating unity, it has created a dangerous new dividing line, and convinced the Kremlin it pays to try to swing the result. “The preliminary election results highlight the challenges Brussels faces in extending EU membership to post-Soviet countries,” said Marta Mucznik, an analyst with Crisis Group. “With Moldova preparing for parliamentary elections in 2025, these divisions are likely to shape political discourse in the months ahead.” That bodes ill for Georgia, where the Georgian Dream party is seeking a majority in parliamentary elections on Saturday, vowing to ban the entire opposition if it secures enough votes. The dramatic campaign comes amid warnings of state capture by Russia, as the country passed Moscow-inspired restrictions on Western-funded NGOs, the media and the LGBTQ+ community. “It’s time Western policymakers woke up to the fact that Russia’s war isn’t just limited to Ukraine — it’s about taking on the democratic world anywhere that Moscow thinks it can exert influence,” said Ivana Stradner of Washington’s Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “And while risk-averse European and American officials think in terms of individual tactics, Putin has a whole strategy he’s using to try and win.” For Sandu, it’s not just EU candidate nations that should be worried — or just smaller ones. Everyone is at risk. “It is true that you can damage the democratic process in a small country more easily,” the Moldovan president argued. “But once these practices are tested in smaller countries, they can be tried in other countries.”

Russia is bussing in thousands of voters at overseas polling stations in a bid to influence Sunday’s critical presidential election and EU referendum in Moldova, according to allegations by Moldovan officials. Almost 900,000 people have already voted in the countrywide poll, in which pro-Western President Maia Sandu is seeking re-election to a second term. Citizens are also being asked to cast ballots on joining the EU, with the government pushing for full membership by 2030. However, two polling stations established in Russia to count the votes of Moldovans living in that country have seen huge numbers of people lining up outside, with pro-Kremlin social media accounts posting clips of them singing Soviet-era patriotic songs as they wait. In a statement hours after polls opened on Sunday, Moldova’s foreign ministry warned that the throngs of voters could be “a result of attempts to organize illegal transportation of voters to the polling stations.” “We believe that the crowds at the two polling stations in Russia have been artificially created to jeopardize the electoral process,” officials said. The two overseas polling stations were set up to allow Moldovans living in Russia to take part in the election and referendum. To pass, at least 33 percent of eligible voters must cast ballots in the presidential election and the referendum on whether to enshrine EU membership in Moldova’s constitution. That figure has already been reached for the presidential election, with an announcement on whether the referendum has met the threshold expected later Sunday. As many as 1.2 million Moldovans live abroad, compared to the country’s population of 2.5 million, meaning the diaspora vote will play a critical role in Sunday’s results. But the two polling stations in Russia have only 5,000 ballot papers each, in line with rules establishing a maximum, meaning many of those queuing in Moscow could be unable to cast a ballot. In the leadup to the vote, Moldovan officials warned that Russia was working to actively influence the outcome and to “delegitimize” the result in a bid to keep the Eastern European nation in its orbit. More than $15 million in Russian funds has been funnelled into the bank accounts of more than 130,000 Moldovan citizens as part of a vote-buying scheme, police investigators told POLITICO. President Sandu has overseen a dramatic pivot toward the West since taking office in 2020, forging close relations with neighboring Ukraine and securing candidate status from the EU. Moldovan and Ukrainian governments have warned that Russia has been trying to stage a coup to oust her in favor of pro-Kremlin parties.