BRUSSELS — Germany and the Netherlands are at odds with France in seeking to ensure Kyiv will be able buy U.S. weapons using the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine. EU countries agreed the crucial lifeline to Kyiv at a European Council summit in December, but the capitals will still have to negotiate the formal conditions of that financing after a European Commission proposal on Wednesday. This sets up tense negotiations with Paris, which is leading a rearguard push to prevent money flowing to Washington amid a growing rift in the transatlantic alliance. French President Emmanuel Macron is keen to give preferential treatment to EU military companies to strengthen the bloc’s defense industry — even if that means Kyiv can’t immediately buy what it needs to keep Russian forces at bay. A majority of countries, led by governments in Berlin and The Hague, respond that Kyiv must have more leeway in how it spends the EU’s financial package to help fund its defense, according to position papers seen by POLITICO. These frictions are coming to a head after years of debate over whether to include Washington in EU defense purchasing programs. Divisions have only worsened since U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration threatened a military takeover of Greenland. Critics retort France’s push to introduce a strict “Buy European” clause would tie Kyiv’s hands and limit its ability to defend itself against Russia. “Ukraine also urgently requires equipment produced by third countries, notably U.S.-produced air defense systems and interceptors, F-16 ammunition and spare parts and deep-strike capacities,” the Dutch government wrote in a letter to other EU countries seen by POLITICO. While most countries including Germany and the Netherlands support a general “Buy European” clause, only Greece and Cyprus — which currently maintains a neutral stance as it is chairing talks under its rotating presidency of the Council of the EU — are backing the French push to limit the scheme to EU firms, according to multiple diplomats with knowledge of the talks. CASH FOR KYIV EU leaders agreed last month to issue €90 billion in joint debt to support Ukraine, after Belgium and others derailed a separate plan to mobilize Russian frozen state assets. Over two-thirds of the Commission’s funding is expected to go toward military expenditure rather than ordinary budget support, according to two EU diplomats briefed on the discussions. With only a few days until the Commission formally unveils its plan, EU capitals are trying to influence its most sensitive elements. French President Emmanuel Macron is keen to give preferential treatment to EU military companies to strengthen the bloc’s defense industry. | Pool photo by Sarah Meyssonnier via AFP/Getty Images Germany broke with France by proposing to open up purchases to defense firms from non-EU countries. “Germany does not support proposals to limit third country procurement to certain products and is concerned that this would put excessive restrictions on Ukraine to defend itself,” Berlin’s government wrote in a letter sent to EU capitals on Monday and seen by POLITICO. The Netherlands suggested earmarking at least €15 billion for Ukraine to buy foreign weapons that are not immediately available in Europe.  “The EU’s defence industry is currently either unable to produce equivalent systems or to do so within the required timeframe,” the Dutch government wrote in its letter. The French counterargument is that Brussels should seek to extract maximum value from its funding to Ukraine. Critics say that boosting Ukraine’s defense against Russia should take precedence over any other goal.    “It’s very frustrating. We lose the focus on our aim, and our aim is not to do business,” said a third EU diplomat. Another diplomat said that a potential French veto can be easily overcome as the proposal can be agreed by a simple majority of member countries. GERMANY FIRST In a further point of controversy, the German government, while rejecting the EU preference sought by France, still suggested giving preferential treatment to firms from countries that provided the most financial support to Ukraine. This would play to the advantage of Berlin, which is among the country’s biggest donors. “Germany requests for the logic of rewarding strong bilateral support (as originally proposed for third countries by the Commission) to be applied to member states, too,” Berlin wrote in the letter. Diplomats see this as a workaround to boost German firms and incentivize other countries to stump up more cash for the war-torn country. Giovanna Faggionato contributed to this report.

HOW DO BULGARIANS FEEL ABOUT JOINING THE EURO? The Balkan nation is sharply divided about bidding farewell to the lev.  Text by BORYANA DZHAMBAZOVA Photos by DOBRIN KASHAVELOV in Pernik, Bulgaria Bulgaria is set to adopt the EU’s single currency on Jan. 1, but polling shows the Balkan nation is sharply divided on whether it’s a good thing. POLITICO spoke to some Bulgarians about their fears and hopes, as they say goodbye to their national currency, the lev. Their comments have been edited for length. ANTON TEOFILOV, 73 Vendor at the open-air market in Pernik, a small city 100 kilometers from Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? We are a different generation, but we support the euro. We’ll benefit hugely from joining the eurozone. It will make paying anywhere in the EU easy and hassle-free. It would be great for both the economy and the nation. You can travel, do business, do whatever you want using a single currency — no more hassle or currency exchanges. You can go to Greece and buy a bottle of ouzo with the same currency. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? I don’t expect any turbulence — from January on we would just pay in euros. No one is complaining about the price tags in euros, and in lev at the moment. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? The lev is a wonderful thing, but its time has passed; that’s just how life works. It will be much better for the economy to adopt the euro. It will be so much easier to share a common currency with the other EU countries. Now, if you go to Greece, as many Bulgarians do, you need to exchange money. After January – wherever you need to make a payment – either going to the store, or to buy produce for our business, it would be one and the same. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? The state needs to explain things more clearly to those who are confused. We are a people who often need a lot of convincing, and on top of that, we’re a divided nation. If you ask me, we need to get rid of half the MPs in Parliament – they receive hefty salaries and are a burden to taxpayers, like parasites, without doing any meaningful work. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? There are 27 member states, and we will become one with them. There will be no difference between Germany and us—we’ll be much closer to Europe. I remember the 1990s, when you needed to fill out endless paperwork just to travel, let alone to work abroad. I spent a year working in construction in Germany, and getting all the permits and visas was a major headache. Now things are completely different, and joining the eurozone is another step toward that openness. Advertisement PETYA SPASOVA, 55 Orthopedic doctor in Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? It worries me a lot. I don’t think this is the right moment for Bulgaria to join the eurozone. First, the country is politically very unstable, and the eurozone itself faces serious problems. As the poorest EU member state, we won’t be immune to those issues. On the contrary, they will only deepen the crisis here. The war in Ukraine, the growing debt in Germany and France … now we’d be sharing the debts of the whole of Europe. We are adopting the euro at a time when economies are strained, and that will lead to serious disruptions and a higher cost of living. I don’t understand why the state insists so strongly on joining the eurozone. I don’t think we’re ready. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? Even now, when you go to the store and look at the price of bread or other basic foods, we see prices climbing. I’m afraid many people will end up living in extreme poverty. We barely produce anything; we’re a country built on services. When people get poorer, they naturally start consuming less. I’m not worried about myself or my family. We live in Sofia, where there are more job opportunities and higher salaries. I’m worried about people in general. Every day I see patients who can’t even afford the travel costs to come to Sofia for medical check-ups. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? I’m extremely worried. I don’t want to relive the economic crisis of the 90s, when the country was on the verge of bankruptcy. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? No one cares what people think. Many countries held referendums and decided not to join the eurozone. I don’t believe our politicians can do anything at this point. I’m not even sure they know what needs to be done. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? I feel offended when I hear this question. We’ve been part of Europe for a very long time, long before many others. We can exchange best practices in culture, science, education, and more, but that has nothing to do with the eurozone. Joining can only bring trouble. I remember years ago when I actually hoped Bulgaria would enter the eurozone. But that was a different Europe. Now things are deteriorating; the spirit of a united Europe is gone. I don’t want to be part of this Europe. Advertisement SVETOSLAV BONINSKI, 53 Truck driver from Gabrovo, a small city in central Bulgaria What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? I’m against Bulgaria joining the eurozone. We saw how Croatia and Greece sank into debt once they adopted the euro. I don’t want Bulgaria to go down the same path. Greece had to take a huge loan to bail out its economy. When they still had the drachma, their economy was strong and stable. After entering the eurozone, many big companies were forced to shut down and inflation went through the roof. Even the German economy is experiencing a downturn.. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? I worry that there will be speculation and rising inflation. Five years ago, I used to buy cigarettes in Slovakia at prices similar to Bulgaria. Now I can’t find anything cheaper than €5 per pack. They saw their prices rise after the introduction of the euro. We’ll repeat the Slovakia scenario. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? We can already feel that things won’t end well — prices have gone up significantly, just like in Croatia. I’m afraid that even in the first year wages won’t be able to compensate for the rise in prices, and people will become even more impoverished. I expect the financial situation to worsen. Our government isn’t taking any responsibility for that. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? I hope they will make an effort. We are completely ill-equipped to adopt the euro—all the stats and figures the government presents are lies. We must wait until the country is ready to manage the euro as a currency. We’re doing fine with the lev. We should wait for the economy to grow and for wages to catch up with the rest of Europe. The only thing the state could do to ease the process is to step down. The current government is interested in entering the eurozone only to receive large amounts of funding, most of which they will probably pocket themselves. The Bulgarian lev is very stable, unlike the euro, which is quite an unstable currency. All the eurozone countries are burdened with trillions in debt, while those outside it are doing quite well. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? I don’t think so. We’ve been part of Europe for a long time. The only difference now will be that Brussels will tell us what to do and will control our budget and spending. Brussels will be in charge from now on. No good awaits us. Elderly people won’t receive decent pensions and will work until we drop dead. Advertisement NATALI ILIEVA, 20 Political science student from Pernik What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? I see it as a step forward for us. It’s a positive development for both society and the country. I expect that joining the eurozone will help the economy grow and position Bulgaria more firmly within Europe. For ordinary people, it will make things easier, especially when traveling, since we’ll be using the same currency. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? The transition period might be difficult at first. I don’t think the change of currency will dramatically affect people’s daily lives – after all, under the currency board, the lev has been pegged to the euro for years. Some people are worried that prices might rise, and this is where the state must step in to monitor the situation, prevent abuse, and make the transition as smooth as possible. As part of my job at the youth center, I travel a lot in Europe. Being part of the eurozone would make travel much more convenient. My life would be so much easier! I wouldn’t have to worry about carrying euros in cash or paying additional fees when withdrawing money abroad, or wondering: Did I take the right debit card in euros? Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? I’m more concerned that the issue will be politicized by certain parties to further polarize society. Joining the eurozone is a logical next step – we agreed to it by default when we joined the bloc in 2007. There is so much disinformation circulating on social media that it’s hard for some people to see the real facts and distinguish what’s true from what’s not. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? The state needs to launch an information campaign to make the transition as smooth as possible. Authorities should explain what the change of currency means for people in a clear and accessible way. You don’t need elaborate language to communicate what’s coming, especially when some radical parties are aggressively spreading anti-euro and anti-EU rhetoric. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? Yes, I think it will help the country become better integrated into Europe. In the end, I believe people will realize that joining the eurozone will be worth it. Advertisement YANA TANKOVSKA, 47 Jewelry artist based in Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? If you ask me, the eurozone is on the verge of collapse, and now we have decided to join? I don’t think it’s a good idea. In theory, just like communism, the idea of a common currency union might sound good, but in practice it doesn’t really work out. I have friends working and living abroad [in eurozone countries], and things are not looking up for regular people, even in Germany. We all thought we would live happily as members of the bloc, but that’s not the reality. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? I expect the first half of next year to be turbulent. But we are used to surviving, so we will adapt yet again. Personally, we might have to trim some expenses, go out less, and make sure the family budget holds. I make jewelry, so I’m afraid I’ll have fewer clients, since they will also have to cut back. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? I’m terribly worried. The state promises there won’t be a jump in prices and that joining the eurozone won’t negatively affect the economy. But over the past two years the cost of living has risen significantly, and I don’t see that trend reversing. For example, in the last three years real estate prices have doubled. There isn’t a single person who isn’t complaining about rising costs. What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? There is nothing they can do at this point. Politicians do not really protect Bulgaria’s interests on this matter. The issue is not only about joining the eurozone but about protecting our national interests. I just want them to have people’s well-being at heart. Maybe we need to hit rock bottom to finally see meaningful change. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? Not really. That’s up to us, not to Europe. I just want Bulgarian politicians to finally start creating policies for the sake of society, not just enriching themselves, to act in a way that would improve life for everyone. Advertisement KATARINA NIKOLIC, 49, AND METODI METODIEV, 53 Business partners at a ‘gelateria’ in Sofia What do you think about Bulgaria joining the eurozone? Metodi: For a small business like ours, I don’t think it will make much difference, as long as the transition to the new currency is managed smoothly. I can only see a positive impact on the economy if things are done right. I’m a bit saddened to say farewell to the Bulgarian lev — it’s an old currency with its own history — but times are changing, and this is a natural step for an EU member. Katarina: I have lived in Italy which adopted the euro a long time ago. Based on my experience there, I don’t expect any worrying developments related to price increases or inflation. On the contrary, joining the eurozone in January can only be interpreted as a sign of trust from the European Commission and could bring more economic stability to Bulgaria. I also think it will increase transparency, improve financial supervision, and provide access to cheaper loans. What do you think will change in your everyday life once the euro replaces the lev? Metodi:  I don’t think there will be any difference for our business whether we’re paying in euros or in leva. We’ve been an EU member state for a while now and we’re used to working with both local and international suppliers. It will just take some getting used to switching to one currency for another. But we are already veterans — Bulgarian businesses are very adaptive — from dealing with renominations and all sorts of economic reforms. I’m just concerned that it might be challenging for some elderly people to adapt to the new currency and they might need some support and more information. Katarina: For many people, it will take time to get used to seeing a new currency, but they will adapt. For me, it’s nothing new. Since I lived in Italy, where the euro is used, I automatically convert to euros whenever Metodi and I discuss business. Are you more hopeful or worried about the economic impact of switching to the euro? Why? Metodi: The decision has already been taken, so let’s make the best of it and ensure a smooth transition. I haven’t exchanged money when traveling in at least 10 years. I just use my bank card to pay or withdraw cash if I need any. Katarina: I remember that some people in Italy also predicted disaster when the euro was introduced, and many were nostalgic about the lira. But years later, Italy is still a stable economy. I think our international partners will look at us differently once we are part of the eurozone. Advertisement What would you like politicians and institutions to do to make the transition easier for ordinary people? Metodi: I think the authorities are already taking measures to make sure prices don’t rise and that businesses don’t round conversions upward unfairly. For example, we may have to slightly increase the price of our ice cream in January. I feel a bit awkward about it because I don’t want people to say, “Look, they’re taking advantage of the euro adoption to raise prices.” But honestly, we haven’t adjusted our prices since we opened three years ago. I’m actually very impressed by how quickly and smoothly small businesses and market sellers have adopted double pricing [marking prices in lev and euros]. I know how much work that requires, especially if you’re a small business owner. Katarina: It’s crucial that the state doesn’t choke small businesses with excessive demands but instead supports them. I believe that helping small businesses grow should be a key focus of the government, not just supervising the currency swap. My hope is that the euro will help the Bulgarian economy thrive. I love Bulgaria and want to see it flourish. I’m a bit more optimistic than Metodi, I think the best is yet to come. Do you think joining the eurozone will bring Bulgaria closer to Europe culturally or politically? Metodi: I think so. Despite some criticism, good things are happening in the country, no matter who is in power. We need this closeness to truly feel part of Europe. Katarina: The euro is a financial and economic instrument. Adopting it won’t change national cultural identity, Bulgarians will keep their culture. I’m a true believer in Europe, and I think it’s more important than ever to have a united continent. As an Italian and Serbian citizen, I really appreciate that borders are open and that our children can choose where to study and work. In fact, our gelateria is a great example of international collaboration: we have people from several different countries in the team.

BRUSSELS — European leaders like Romania’s Nicușor Dan spent most of 2025 trying to work out how to live with Donald Trump. Or — even worse — without him. Since the great disruptor of international norms returned to the White House in January, he has made clear just how little he really cares for Europe — some of his key lieutenants are plainly hostile.  The U.S. president slashed financial and military aid to Ukraine, hit the European Union with tariffs, and attacked its leaders as “weak.” His administration is now on a mission to intervene in Europe’s democracy to back “patriotic” parties and shift politics toward MAGA’s anti-migrant goals.  For leaders such as Romania’s moderate president, the dilemma is always how far to accept Trump’s priorities — because Europe still needs America — and how strongly to resist his hostility to centrist European values. Does a true alliance even still exist across the Atlantic? “The world [has] changed,” Dan said in an interview from his top-floor Brussels hotel suite. “We shifted from a — in some sense — moral way of doing things to a very pragmatic and economical way of doing things.” EU leaders understand this, he said, and now focus their attention on developing practical strategies for handling the new reality of Trump’s world. Centrists will need to factor in a concerted drive from Americans to back their populist opponents on the right as the United States seeks to change Europe’s direction. Administration officials such as Vice President JD Vance condemned last year’s canceled election in Romania and the new White House National Security Strategy suggests the U.S. will seek to bend European politics to its anti-migrant MAGA agenda. For Dan, it is “OK” for U.S. politicians to express their opinions. But it would be a “problem” if the U.S. tried to “influence” politics “undemocratically” — for example, by paying media inside European countries “like the Russians are doing.” WEAK EUROPEANS Relations with America are critical for a country like Romania, which, unusually, remained open to the West during four decades of communist rule. On the EU’s eastern edge, bordering Ukraine, Romania is home to a major NATO base — soon to be Europe’s biggest — as well as an American ballistic missile defense site. But the Trump administration has announced the withdrawal of 800 American troops from Romania, triggering concern in Bucharest. As winter sun streamed in through the window, Dan argued that Europe and the U.S. are natural allies because they share more values than other regions of the world. He thought “a proper partnership” will be possible — “in the medium [term] future.” But for now, “we are in some sense of a transition period in which we have to understand better each other.” Dan’s frank assessment reveals the extent of the damage that has been done to the transatlantic alliance this year. Trump has injected jeopardy into all aspects of the Western alliance — even restoring relations with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin.  At times, Europeans have been at a loss over how to respond.  Does Dan believe Trump had a point when he told POLITICO this month that European leaders were “weak”?  “Yes,” Dan said, there is “some” truth in Trump’s assessment. Europe can be too slow to make decisions. For example, it took months of argument and a fraught summit in Brussels last week that ended at 3 a.m. to agree on a way to fund Ukraine. But — crucially — even a fractious EU did eventually take “the important decision,” he said. That decision to borrow €90 billion in joint EU debt for a loan for cash-strapped Kyiv will keep Ukraine in the fight against Putin for the next two years.  WAITING FOR PEACE According to EU leaders who support the plan (Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia won’t take part), it makes a peace deal more likely because it sends a signal to Putin that Ukraine won’t just collapse if he waits long enough. But Dan believes the end of the war remains some way off, despite Trump’s push for a ceasefire.  “I am more pessimistic than optimistic on short term,” he said. Putin’s side does not appear to want peace: “They think a peace in two, three months from now will be better for them than peace now. So they will fight more — because they have some small progress on the field.”  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at last week’s European Council summit that he wanted Trump to put more pressure on Putin to agree to a ceasefire. Does Dan agree? “Of course. We are supporting Ukraine.” But Trump’s “extremely powerful” recent sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil are already helping, Dan said. He also welcomed Trump’s commitment to peace, and America’s new openness to providing security guarantees to bolster a final deal.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at last week’s European Council summit that he wanted Trump to put more pressure on Putin to agree to a ceasefire. Does Dan agree? “Of course. We are supporting Ukraine.” | Olivier Hoslet/EPA It is clear that Dan hopes Putin doesn’t get the whole of Donbas in eastern Ukraine, but he doesn’t want to tie Zelenskyy’s hands. “Any kind of peace in which the aggressor is rewarded in some sense is not good for Europe and for the future security of the world,” Dan said. “But the decision for the peace is just on the Ukrainian shoulders. They suffer so much, so we cannot blame them for any decision they will do.” Romania plays a critical role as an operational hub for transferring supplies to neighboring Ukraine. With its Black Sea port of Constanța, the country will be vital to future peacekeeping operations. Ukrainian soldiers are training in Romania and it is already working with Bulgaria and Turkey to demine the Black Sea, Dan said.  Meanwhile, Russian drones have breached Romanian airspace more than a dozen times since the start of the full-scale war, and a village on the border with Ukraine had to be evacuated recently when drones set fire to a tanker ship containing gas. Dan played down the threat.  “We had some drones. We are sure they have not intentionally [been] sent on our territory,” he said. “We try to say to our people that they are not at all in danger.” Still, Romania is boosting its military spending to deter Russia all the same. CORRUPTION AND A CRISIS OF FAITH Dan, 56, won the presidency in May this year at a tense moment for the country of 19 million people. The moderate former mayor of Bucharest defeated his populist, Ukraine-skeptic opponent against the odds. The vote was a rerun, after the first attempt to hold a presidential election was canceled last December over allegations of massive Russian interference and unlawful activity in support of the far-right front-runner Călin Georgescu. Legal cases are underway, including charges against Georgescu and others over an alleged coup plot. But for many Romanians, the cancelation of the 2024 election merely reinforced their cynicism toward the entire democratic system in their country. They wanted change and almost half the electorate backed the far right to deliver it.  Corruption today remains a major problem in Romania and Dan made it his mission to restore voters’ faith. In his first six months, however, he prioritized painful and unpopular public-sector spending cuts to bring the budget deficit — which was the EU’s biggest — under control. “On the big problems of society, starting with corruption, we didn’t do much,” Dan confessed. That, he said, will change. A recent TV documentary about alleged corruption in the judiciary provoked street demonstrations and a protest letter signed by hundreds of judges. Dan is due to meet them this week and will then work on legislative reforms focused on making sure the best magistrates are promoted on merit rather than because of who they know. “People at the top are working for small networks of interests, instead of the public good,” Dan said. But for many Romanians, the cancellation of the 2024 election merely reinforced their cynicism toward the entire democratic system in their country. | Robert Ghement/EPA He was also clear that the state has not yet done enough to explain to voters why the election last year was canceled. More detail will come in a report expected in the next two months, he said. RUSSIAN MEDDLING One thing that is now obvious is that Russia’s attack on Romanian democracy, including through a vast TikTok influence campaign, was not isolated. Dan said his country has been a target for Moscow for a decade, and other European leaders tell him they now suffer the same disinformation campaigns, as well as sabotage. Nobody has an answer to the torrent of fake news online, he said. “I just have talks with leaders for countries that are more advanced than us and I think nobody has a complete answer,” he said. “If you have that kind of information and that information arrived to half a million people, even if you’re coming the next day saying that it was false, you have lost already.” The far-right populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians party is ahead in the polls on about 40 percent, mirroring the pattern elsewhere in Europe. Dan, who beat AUR leader George Simion in May, believes his own team must get closer to the people to defeat populism. And he wishes that national politicians around Europe would stop blaming all their unpopular policies on Brussels because that merely fuels populist causes. Dan said he has learned that EU politics is in fact a democratic process, in which different member countries bring their own ideas forward. “With my six months’ experience, I can say that it’s quite a debate,” he said. “There is not a bureaucratic master that’s arranging things. It’s a democracy. It’s a pity that the people do not feel that directly.” But what about those marathon EU summits that keep everyone working well beyond midnight? “The topics are well chosen,” Dan said. “But I think the debates are a little bit too long.”

BRUSSELS — Diplomats are working on a long-shot 11th-hour compromise to salvage a deal on sending vital financial aid to Ukraine at Thursday’s high-stakes EU leaders’ summit. On Wednesday evening Europe’s leaders were split into irreconcilable camps, at least publicly, and seemed unlikely to agree on how to fund Kyiv, thanks partly to the reemergence of the same bitter north-south divisions over joint debt that torpedoed EU unity during the eurozone crisis. Only a few hours before the 27 leaders gather in Brussels, two opposing groups are crossing swords over whether to issue a loan to Ukraine based on frozen Russian central bank reserves, largely held by the Euroclear bank in Belgium. Germany along with Nordic and Eastern European countries say there is no alternative to that scheme. But they are running into hardening resistance from Belgium and Italy, which are gunning for Plan B: Support for Kyiv based on EU debt guaranteed by the bloc’s common budget. Bulgaria, Malta, Hungary and Slovakia are also against the use of the assets. In a stark illustration of the schism, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Wednesday she would use the Council meeting to demand answers on the “possible risks” of leveraging the assets, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz doubled down on the assets plan “to help end this war as quickly as possible.” ESCAPE PLAN The first contours of a potential route out of the impasse — one that would have to be hashed out during hours of negotiations — are beginning to take shape. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen cautiously opened the door to joint debt on Wednesday morning during a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. “I proposed two different options for this upcoming European Council, one based on assets and one based on EU borrowing. And we will have to decide which way we want to take,” she said. The key to such a plan would be carving Hungary and Slovakia — which both oppose giving further aid to Ukraine — out of the joint debt scheme, four EU diplomats told POLITICO. A deal could still be agreed at the Council among the 27 EU countries, but the ultimate arrangement would stipulate that only 25 would be involved in the funding. Agreeing such a scheme would give a crucial lifeline to Ukraine’s shattered public finances as its coffers risk running dry as early as next April. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is already predicting the assets will not be discussed in Brussels, and that negotiations have shifted to joint loans. Multiple diplomats, however, retorted that Orbán was wrong and that the Russian assets were still “the only game in town.” CRUNCH TIME Despite growing political pressure on the EU to prove it can rise to meet the existential challenges facing Ukraine, diplomats from the rival camps were often skeptical on Wednesday that a compromise could be found. The idea of EU joint debt has for years been anathema to the northern member countries, who have been unwilling to underwrite bonds for highly indebted southern countries. “The closest [situations] to what’s happening now with frozen assets are the 2012-2013 financial crisis and Greece’s bailout in 2015,” said a senior EU diplomat who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely. With respect to the Ukraine war, the northerners deny they oppose the use of eurobonds over concerns about the solvency of other EU countries, but argue they prefer the assets because they would provide a greater long-term cash infusion to Ukraine. “This is not about frugals versus spenders. It’s about being pro-Ukraine or not,” said a second EU diplomat, adding that northern and eastern European countries have taken the lead in bankrolling Ukraine’s war needs over the past four years. BACKING THE BELGIANS Despite weeks of painstaking negotiations over the assets, efforts to bring Belgium around are backfiring. The country adamantly opposes using the Russian money held by Euroclear in Brussels, and has now attracted allies. “[The Commission] created a monster, and they’ve been eaten by it,” said a third EU diplomat, referring to the assets plan. Germany and its allies, however, warn there is still no alternative to targeting the Euroclear money. “If you want to do something together as Europeans, the reparations loan is the only way,” a fourth EU diplomat said. The idea behind the assets-based loan is that Kyiv would not have to repay it unless Moscow coughs up the billions-worth of reparations needed to rebuild Ukraine’s pulverized cities — an unlikely scenario. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever is expected to push the Commission to explore joint debt during Thursday’s summit of EU leaders — in the hope that others around the table will echo his demands. His supporters claim the model “is cheaper and offers more clarity,” said a fifth EU diplomat. But critics point out it will also require the political blessing of Hungary’s pro-Russia Prime Minister Orbán — who has repeatedly threatened to torpedo further financial aid to Kyiv. The impasse would require the Commission to concoct a workaround to keep Ukraine afloat while allowing Orbán to save face, according to the four EU diplomats. In exchange for his support the Commission could spare Hungarian and Slovak taxpayers from having to pay for Ukraine’s defense.   “The Commission now pushes joint loans, but we will not let our families foot the bill for Ukraine’s war,” Orbán wrote on X on Wednesday afternoon. He added that “Russian assets will not be on the table at tomorrow’s EUCO [European Council].” However, a senior EU official was quick to reject the Hungarian leader’s claim that the Russian reserves were no longer in play. “The reparations loan is still very much on the table,” they said. Bjarke Smith-Meyer, Gabriel Gavin and Gerardo Fortuna contributed to this report

PARIS — French lawmakers formally approved the country’s 2026 social security budget on Tuesday, handing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu an important political victory and offering some optimism to skittish markets worried France isn’t serious about getting its public finances in check. The bill, which covers state health care and pensions spending, was expected to pass after having already been approved by the National Assembly, France’s more powerful lower legislative chamber, last week, but its rejection by the Senate over the weekend forced another vote. The conservative Senate rejected the measure in part over concerns the legislation does not sufficiently bring down the budget deficit. As part of a compromise to ensure his government’s survival, Lecornu approved a measure in the law that suspends until 2027 the controversial law passed in 2023 that raised the retirement age for most workers from 62 to 64. The government now faces the more arduous task of passing a state budget for next year, which is a separate piece of legislation. The National Assembly’s first attempt to pass a state budget ended with all but one MP voting against the bill, which MPs had saddled with untenable and sometimes conflicting amendments. Lawmakers from both branches of parliament will on Friday attempt to forge a compromise text during a U.S.-style conference committee in what one National Assembly official described as a “make or break” moment. France is highly unlikely to face a government shutdown similar to what happened in the United States earlier this year as lawmakers can approve a measure carrying the 2025 budget over into next year. But such a stopgap would exacerbate the worrying financial outlook in the European Union’s second-largest economy. France’s current fiscal plans for 2026 are now projected to carry a budget deficit to 5.3 percent of gross domestic product, significantly higher than the 4.7 percent of GDP deficit initially proposed by the government and welcomed by the European Commission. Lecornu said in October that whatever fiscal plans lawmakers agree on should not carry a budget deficit for 2026 that exceeds 5 percent of GDP.

HELSINKI — European leaders can rebut Donald Trump’s claim they are weak by cementing a deal to unlock hundreds of billions in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told POLITICO Tuesday. Last week, the U.S. president branded Europe a “decaying group of nations” and lambasted its leaders, days after his administration released a sweeping security strategy that rebuked the continent. “I think they’re weak,” Trump told POLITICO in an exclusive interview, “They don’t know what to do.” Now, those same leaders “absolutely” have an opportunity to correct Trump, Michal said in an interview, as they gather for a critical EU summit on Thursday that will determine the fate of its plan to provide a €210 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets to keep Kyiv afloat. “Europe can act together, we have the funds to back up Ukraine for many years, and these funds are taken from Russian assets — this is a very strong message,” Michal said in the run-up to a gathering of leaders from eight EU frontline countries in Helsinki on Tuesday. “We are not against America, we are with America,” he said, but getting an agreement this week would prove we are “a strong partner [which] is better than to have a weak partner.” The comments underscore the sky-high stakes at play as the bloc’s 27 leaders meet this week. Ukraine is facing a $71.7 billion budget shortfall next year, and unless its EU backers find a compromise, Kyiv is set to run out of cash by spring. Beyond the impact on the front lines, the worry is that would weaken Ukraine’s hand in ongoing peace talks. Michal’s call also adds to the pressure on Belgium, the key country opposing a deal. The EU institutions’ host country also houses Euroclear, the financial institution that holds most of the bloc’s Russian reserves, and has repeatedly sought changes to the deal over fears of becoming liable if Moscow claws back those assets. During a late-night meeting of EU envoys Monday, Belgium again rebuffed the latest proposals from the European Commission, arguing they did not provide sufficient reassurances. EU leaders have repeatedly urged the country to back down, arguing that backup options such as issuing joint debt would be still harder to achieve, given it would require unanimity from the bloc’s 27 members. This means Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has long been skeptical of support for Ukraine, could block the initiative. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday warned the EU would be “severely damaged for years” if the bloc fails to finalize a deal. At Tuesday’s frontline states summit in Helsinki, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told POLITICO that Belgium should show “unity with us.” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, too, asked for “political goodwill from the side of Belgium.” Michal struck a more constructive tone. “There are sensible questions and sensible details that Belgium is asking,” he said. “We’ll discuss them in a calm, rational manner.” “But after that it comes down to [this],” he added. “Is Europe rising to the occasion that we need … and sending a message that we also can be tough on security questions?” In the meantime, the Estonian premier warned that unless Russia is held to account after a peace deal is agreed, it would only further encourage Moscow’s revanchism across Europe. “If Russia is not [held] responsible for the things done, for example paying for the damages done,” he said, then “that will give a message that it’s OK to use force to change borders.”

BRUSSELS — Belgium on Monday pushed back against the European Commission’s proposed concessions to unblock a €210 billion loan to Ukraine funded by frozen Russian assets — dashing EU hopes of securing a deal in time for Thursday’s leaders’ summit. With two days to go, the Commission is making a last push to convince EU member countries to back the loan so that billions of euros in Russian reserves held at the Euroclear bank in Brussels can be freed up to support Kyiv’s war-battered economy. The EU’s 27 envoys will continue discussions on the scheme later Tuesday, as talks to end Russia’s almost four-year all-out war in Ukraine achieved some progress during a meeting of Western leaders and U.S. envoys in Berlin on Monday. After days of negotiations on the assets, the Commission on Monday suggested legal changes to its proposal to secure political buy-in from Belgium. It gave legal assurances that, under any scenario, Belgium could tap into as much as €210 billion if it faces legal claims or retaliation by Russia, according to the latest text seen by POLITICO. It also stated that no money should be given to Ukraine before EU countries provide financial guarantees covering at least 50 percent of the payout. In a further concession, the Commission instructed all EU countries to end their bilateral investment treaties with Russia to ensure Belgium isn’t left alone to deal with retaliation from Moscow. But Belgium said that the reassurances were not enough during a meeting of EU ambassadors on Monday evening, four EU diplomats told POLITICO. “There will be no deal until EUCO [European Council],” said an EU diplomat who, like others quoted in this article, was granted anonymity to speak freely. The Belgian government is holding out against using the Russian assets over fears that it will be on the hook to repay the full amount if Russia attempts to claw back the money. But in a further complication, four other countries — Italy, Malta, Bulgaria and Czechia — backed Belgium’s demand to explore alternative financing for Ukraine, such as joint debt. While France continues to publicly back the frozen assets plan — the country’s Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad said in Brussels on Tuesday that Paris supports it — a person close to French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris was “neutral” on whether Europe should tap Moscow’s billions, or turn to Eurobonds to keep Ukraine from going bankrupt. Supporters of the scheme — such as Germany — insist there is no real alternative to using the Russian assets. They say that joint debt isn’t feasible because it requires unanimity — meaning that Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has long been skeptical of support for Ukraine, could block the initiative. “Let us not deceive ourselves. If we do not succeed in this, the European Union’s ability to act will be severely damaged for years, if not for a longer period,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday. But that isn’t convincing for all EU countries. Critics claim that Germany insists on using Russian assets because it is ideologically opposed to EU common debt. “The narrative is that Hungary is against common debt [for Ukraine]. The reality is that the frugals are against common debt,” said an EU diplomat. Clea Caulcutt contributed to this report from Paris.

PARIS — The French Senate laid the groundwork for a dramatic, consequential week of fiscal planning for 2026 on Monday by passing its own version of next year’s state budget rife with spending cuts.   The Senate and France’s more powerful lower house, the National Assembly, must now find a compromise in a process akin to a U.S.-style conference committee set to take place Friday. If that process fails it will considerably diminish the chances of France getting a new budget wrapped by the end of the year. One National Assembly official told POLITICO the meeting will be “make or break.” Political paralysis also prevented France from getting its 2025 state budget passed before the end of last year; Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu warned in November that a repeat failure was a “danger that weighs on the French economy.” The country is highly unlikely to face a government shutdown similar to what happened in the United States earlier this year, however, as lawmakers can approve a measure carrying the 2025 budget over into next year. But such a stopgap would exacerbate the worrying financial outlook in the European Union’s second-largest economy.   Lecornu managed to secure a consensus on next year’s social security budget, but the state budget is proving more difficult. The National Assembly’s first attempt ended with all but one MP voting against a bill saddled with untenable and sometimes conflicting amendments. The opposition Socialist Party, which backed the social security bill and is in somewhat of a kingmaker position, is leaning toward voting against this version of the state budget because its members feel France’s wealthiest households won’t be subject to sufficient tax hikes, party leader Olivier Faure said last week. 

BRUSSELS — Italy is throwing its weight behind Belgium in opposing the EU’s plan to send €210 billion of Russia’s frozen state assets to Ukraine, according to an internal document seen by POLITICO. The intervention by Rome, the EU’s No.3 in terms of population and voting power — less than a week before a crucial meeting of EU leaders in Brussels — undermines the European Commission’s hopes of finalizing a deal on the plan. The Commission is pushing for EU member countries to reach an agreement in a European Council summit on Dec.18-19 so that the billions of euros in Russian reserves held in the Euroclear bank in Belgium can be freed up to support Kyiv’s war-battered economy.  Belgium’s government is holding out over fears it will be on the hook to repay the full amount if Russia claws back the money, but has so far lacked a heavyweight ally ahead of the December summit. Now Italy has shaken up the diplomatic dynamics by drafting a document with Belgium, Malta and Bulgaria urging the Commission to explore alternative options to using the Russian assets to keep Ukraine afloat over the coming years. The four countries said they “invite the Commission and the Council to continue exploring and discussing alternative options in line with EU and international law, with predictable parameters, presenting significantly less risks, to address Ukraine’s financial needs, based on an EU loan facility or bridge solutions.” The four countries are referring to a Plan B to issue joint EU debt to finance Ukraine over the coming years. However, this idea has its own problems. Critics note it will add to the high debt burdens of Italy and France, and requires unanimity — meaning it can be vetoed by Hungary’s Kremlin-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The four countries — even if joined by pro-Kremlin Hungary and Slovakia — would not be able to build a blocking minority but their public criticism erodes the Commission’s hopes of striking a political deal next week. While Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has always supported sanctions against Russia, the government coalition she leads is divided over supporting Ukraine. Hard-right Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has embraced a Russia-friendly stance and endorsed U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine. EMERGENCY RULE Offering a further criticism, the four countries expressed skepticism toward the Commission seizing on emergency powers to overhaul the current sanctions rules and keep Russia’s assets frozen in the long-term. Despite voting in favor of this move to preserve EU unity, they said they were wary of then progressing to use the Russian assets themselves. “This vote does not pre-empt in any circumstances the decision on the possible use of Russian immobilised assets that needs to be taken at Leaders’ level,” the four countries wrote. The legal mechanism for long-term freeze is meant to reduce the chance that pro-Kremlin countries in Europe, such as Hungary and Slovakia, will hand back the frozen funds to Russia. Officials claim this workaround undermines the Kremlin’s chances of liberating its assets as part of a post-war peace settlement — and therefore strengthens the EU’s separate plan to make use of that money.   However, the four countries wrote that the legal clause “implies very far reaching legal, financial, procedural, and institutional consequences that might go well beyond this specific case.”

A minimum tax on the EU’s richest individuals will not discourage innovators and start-up founders from investing in the bloc, prominent economist Gabriel Zucman told POLITICO. “Innovation does not depend on just a tiny number of wealthy individuals paying zero tax,” Zucman said in an interview at this year’s POLITICO 28 event. The young economist has become a household name in France thanks to his proposal to have households worth more than €100 million paying an annual tax of at least 2 percent of the value of all their assets. Critics of the tax warned about the risk of scaring investors out of the EU and that tech entrepreneurs could leave the bloc as they would be forced to pay a tax based on the market value of shares they own in their companies without necessarily having the liquidity to do so. But Zucman rejected “the notion that someone […] would be discouraged to create a start-up, to innovate in AI because of the possibility that once that person is a billionaire, he or she will have to pay a tiny amount of tax” “Who can believe in that?” he scoffed. The “Zucman tax” was one of the key demands by left-wing parties for France’s budget for next year. But the measure has been ignored by all France’s short-lived prime ministers, and rejected by the French parliament during ongoing budget debates. But Zucman is not giving up and still promotes the measure, including at the EU level. “This would generate about €65 billion in tax revenue for the EU as whole,” Zucman insisted.