John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book “In Search of Berlin” is published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO columnist. One of the most common headlines in the German newspapers used to be a reassuringly long compound noun: Koalitionsverhandlungen. Coalition and negotiations — these were the two words Germany’s postwar democracy was based on, as mainstream parties would come together to forge deals to run the country and the Länder. No group or individual would ever again get close to untrammeled power — a rule that applied not only to the formation of governments but to each and every measure, requiring committees to pore over details, cabinet meetings to discuss the big picture and compromise, and then gain parliamentary approval. Plus, if politicians overstepped, the courts could always restrain them. This system of multiple checks and balances provided reassurance and stability since the establishment of the Federal Republic in 1949. But now, all this is under threat. In today’s new age, deliberative politics is regarded as the antithesis of what is needed. It’s a reappraisal that’s affecting many liberal democracies in Europe — but none more so than Germany, which long advertised the virtues of compromise that are now denounced as vices. Some Germans, particularly those on the right, now negatively compare their government’s approach to domestic and foreign policy to that of U.S. President Donald Trump, asking why Christian Democrat (CDU) Chancellor Friedrich Merz can’t be more like the American leader. Why can’t he bulldoze his way to get what he wants and then bask in the glory, rather than wheeling and dealing with his coalition partners over everything from aid for Ukraine to unemployment benefits. It’s not just the politicians who complain about this supposed weakness either. Much of the German media fulminates about it every day, as opposed to how they embraced compromise before. As a result, Merz has found himself wading through in the worst of both worlds. When recently challenged by one of Germany’s top television hosts about watering down so many of his party’s election promises, he responded: “I am no longer the representative of the CDU. I am the representative of the government. And that government is a coalition of two parties.” That, alas, is no longer enough. Instead, everyone must fight to get their own way in a new form of public disputatiousness that took root during the last government’s three-party “traffic light” coalition. Leading members battled over everything: The Social Democrats (SPD) , then the largest party, pursued their welfare agenda; the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), which had barely scraped into parliament, controlled the purse strings; and the only thing they could agree on was ganging up on the Greens’ agenda. It was dispiriting to watch, and it came crashing down when then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his minister of finance, FDP leader Christian Lindner, with ostentatious acrimony. All three parties were subsequently punished in last February’s general election, ushering in the new era under Merz. But even before he took the seals of office, Merz was being undermined by all sides — including within his own ranks. Both the CDU and SPD already agree on the reintroduction of military service in some form, and the details being haggled over are just that — details. | Clemens Bilan/EPA The players might be different, but the fighting remains the same. Right before parliament went into recess in July, for instance, several CDU MPs signaled they’d vote against a judge nominated to the Constitutional Court — an unprecedented break with protocol — prompted by a far-right storm portraying the moderately liberal candidate as dangerously left-wing. The vote was postponed, and the judge eventually withdrew her candidacy. Amid fears that a Rubicon had been crossed, both ruling parties then vowed to behave and better cooperate when the Bundestag resumed in September. But have they? Yes and no. In the age of social media, with its onus on brevity and bombast, German politicians are having to relearn their craft. Dogged and discreet participation in committees is no longer the route to success. Therefore, the negotiations required for two or more parties to come together and strike a deal are inevitably being portrayed in an argumentative manner. And it’s a shift that’s taking place across pretty much all areas of government business. For example, both the CDU and SPD already agree on the reintroduction of military service in some form, and the details being haggled over are just that — details. The fundamental question is what happens if the required threshold isn’t met through voluntary recruitment. Is it a form of lottery — absurd, but under consideration — or something else? And yet, the discussions led to a public row between senior politicians. What Merz promised was an “autumn of reforms,” and these are gradually being rolled out. But instead of hailing what is being achieved, all sides are publicly complaining they haven’t got what they wanted, and it’s taking up all the oxygen. Indeed, that is politics — but as ever, there’s also the looming specter of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to consider. Still riding high in the polls, the party has five regional elections to look forward to in 2026, including one in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where polls predict it might even win an overall majority — an extraordinary prospect. And the AfD’s promises, such as those to slash immigration, point to a wider phenomenon — the simplification of political solutions — which, again, brings us back to Trump. By riding roughshod over constitutional and societal norms, the U.S. president has changed both the American and global landscape in less than a year. The German political system, which is nearly 80 years old now, was built to withstand the exercise of muscular power. But if the very type of politics that it introduced — the politics of compromise — is now scorned by so many, the onus is on Merz and his ministers not just to deliver on policy but to clearly demonstrate that all isn’t lost for the painstaking politics of reason.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Was ist wirklich passiert beim politischen Wechsel in Berlin – und warum? In dieser Sonderfolge spricht Gordon Repinski mit Journalist und Bestsellerautor Robin Alexander über sein neues Buch. Es geht um die Lektionen aus dem Ampel-Scheitern, den strategischen Stilwechsel unter Friedrich Merz – und wie eine Reform der Schuldenbremse fast an Merz’ überholten Telefon-Gewohnheiten scheiterte. Das neue Buch von Robin Alexander „Letzte Chance – Der neue Kanzler und der Kampf um die Demokratie“ erscheint am 25. Juni 2025 im Siedler Verlag und ist hier erhältlich. Alexander liest exklusive Passagen vor: von geheimen Treffen mit CDU-Ministerpräsidenten bis zu kuriosen Wendepunkten im Machtkampf mit den Grünen – inklusive eines Besuches beim Schalke-Spiel im Olympiastadion und politischen Manövern zwischen Britta Haßelmann, Alexander Dobrindt und Jens Spahn . Außerdem: Warum Olaf Scholz als „pädagogischer Besserwisser“ scheiterte und welche strukturellen Defizite die neue Regierung beerbt. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Er wollte Arbeitsminister werden, ist aber lieber doch Generalsekretär der CDU geblieben: Carsten Linnemann. Gordon Repinski war mit ihm spazieren und hat auf einer Runde zwischen Konrad-Adenauer-Haus und Tiergarten über die wichtigen Themen von Regierung bis Parteipolitik gesprochen. Linnemann spricht über die Analyse des Wahlkampfs, die neue Rolle von Merz als Kanzler, den Anspruch als Volkspartei immer noch 30 Prozent plus zu erreichen und um vertane Chancen und neue Chancen geht es auch.  Außerdem erklärt der CDU-Generalsekretär, wie er aus der Parteizentrale eine Denkfabrik machen will.  Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

BERLIN — Lars Klingbeil’s leap to the highest rung of German politics began on a day of unprecedented defeat for his center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Klingbeil, as one of the SPD’s national leaders during the reign of former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, undeniably bore much of the responsibility for the party’s worst national election result in its modern history in a February snap election. But instead of falling victim to his party’s failure, Klingbeil emerged as the new face of the SPD and one of Germany’s most influential politicians, serving as vice chancellor and finance minister in the new coalition government led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. At at time when Germany, the European Union’s biggest economy, is on the cusp of a historic increase in borrowing and spending, Klingbeil’s control over the purse strings gives him immense power to shape Europe’s course. The only question is whether the cunning that enabled his stunning domestic rise will allow Klingbeil — who has no real governing experience — to thrive in one of the most important, difficult posts in European politics just as the continent faces the immense challenges of war, a fraying alliance with the U.S. and great economic uncertainty. “When somebody concentrates all power into their hands, then of course that person will be held responsible for their mistakes,” said one SPD politician, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters. In the past, Klingbeil could always blame the party’s failures on others — including Olaf Scholz’s unpopularity — said the parliamentarian. But now, the parliamentarian added, Klingbeil is “the one who has to deliver.” ‘ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF’ The son of a soldier and a retail clerk, Klingbeil grew up in the military town of Munster in northern Germany — home to one of the German army’s largest bases. Disapproving of the military’s hierarchical nature, he was one of the few men in his high school class to forgo military service. Rather, Klingbeil played guitar in rock bands growing up, including one called Pflaumenmus, or “Plum Jam,” and once joked that he wanted to be a punk rock star, but “somehow no one else wanted that.” The finance minister still keeps his guitars on hand in his home and office, and playing them, he once said, “is for me like meditation.” “Overall, he’s a very friendly, sociable guy,” said Ralf Stegner, a senior SPD parliamentarian who has known Klingbeil for over two decades. | Markus Scholz/picture alliance via Getty Images Klingbeil, by his own account, was the first person in his family to attend university, studying political science in Hannover. For a stint, he interned at an SPD-affiliated foundation in Manhattan, where he witnessed the 9/11 attacks, an experience, he has said, that sparked a long-term interest in security policy. Klingbeil entered the German parliament for the first time as a 27-year-old with an eyebrow ring. He was able to work his way up through the party ranks, ultimately shedding the piercing, due to a unique combination of personal attributes: the ability to be friendly, charming and persuasive, while also acting as a ruthless power broker when needed, according to SPD members speaking to POLITICO on condition of anonymity. “Overall, he’s a very friendly, sociable guy,” said Ralf Stegner, a senior SPD parliamentarian who has known Klingbeil for over two decades. “People who are like that are easily underestimated, because that’s not the usual style in politics.” Klingbeil says his recovery following a tongue cancer diagnosis in 2014 has shaped much of his outlook. “You look at life differently once you’ve been on the edge of the cliff,” he said in a podcast interview. CEMENTING POWER During intensive negotiations to establish a coalition between conservatives and the SPD, Klingbeil and Merz established a close personal connection, according to people familiar with the talks. It was during these negotiations that Klingbeil’s standing inside his own party soared. Even before the coalition deal was announced, Klingbeil reached an agreement with Merz to fulfill one of the SPD’s greatest wishes: the ability to borrow massively to fund Germany’s defense and infrastructure. In addition, he managed to get his SPD, the coalition’s junior partner, control of seven ministries, including the influential finance, defense and labor posts. Among those appointed are Boris Pistorius — Germany’s most popular politician and the only minister from the previous government to have his mandate renewed. Ahead of the coalition negotiations, it was unclear whether Pistorius or Klingbeil would become the new face of the SPD. Klingbeil, however, has now cemented his position as the party’s clear leader. In order to do so, Klingbeil, who belongs to the conservative wing of the SPD, selected many young and progressive SPD politicians for ministerial posts and for party leadership positions, which had the effect of winning him broad-based support within the ranks. Following the broad leadership reshuffle, Klingbeil is one of the few survivors. “He got representation for as many groups as possible to make himself less vulnerable and because he knows that opponents can also be tied to him in this way,” said one SPD parliamentarian on the party’s left flank. “There’ll always be headwinds when there is this strong leadership figure to whom a party is tailored,” the lawmaker added. “On the other hand, I also ask myself who else it could be, because there are few, if any, alternatives.” THE HARD PART BEGINS The historic U-turn on German fiscal policy that Klingbeil negotiated with Merz now unlocks hundreds of billions of euros that the new finance minister will have to allocate. That’s an extraordinarily complex task for any finance minister, let alone someone with no technocratic or governing experience. Klingbeil also faces the more mundane immediate task of getting the budgets for this year and next year over the line by the fall. That task became more challenging on Thursday, as Klingbeil announced that the government, because of the sluggish economy, is now expected to collect €33.3 billion less in tax revenue by 2029 than previously forecast. He’ll also have to juggle how to preside over a historic expansion in his country’s fiscal policy while maintaining the EU fiscal rules the Germans have long demanded other countries adhere to. Klingbeil intends to stick to policy and political messaging while handing over the finer financial details to his team of technocrats, according to a Handelsblatt report. However, this is an approach that is doomed to failure, according to ministry officials interviewed by the newspaper; a successful minister, those officials argue, needs to have a good grasp of the technocratic details. But his biggest task may well be winning the trust of his counterparts in Brussels. At his first meeting with European finance ministers in Brussels, Klingbeil appeared unprepared when confronted by reporters with tough questions about how Germany’s spending plans can be reconciled with EU budget rules that limit national deficits to 3 percent of gross domestic product. “I ask for your understanding. This is my fifth day in office,” he told reporters. “All these issues will be resolved in the next few weeks.”

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Europe’s political center is wobbling. Again. In Germany, a dramatic Bundestag vote leaves new Chancellor Friedrich Merz bruised before he’s even begun. In Romania, the first round of the presidential election wipes out the mainstream — and puts a Trump-admiring provocateur on top. EU Confidential breaks down a week of shaken coalitions, rising populists, and what they all say about the shifting balance of power in Europe. Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by Politico’s Nette Nöstlinger in Berlin, our in-house Romanian expert Carmen Paun, and Chief Political Correspondent in Europe and the U.K. Tim Ross to explore what’s driving the backlash against the mainstream — and how Trump’s influence plays out very differently across the map.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Jetzt beginnt die Arbeit für den neuen Regierungschef, aber auch für die Ministerinnen und Minister und Staatssekretäre. Rasmus Buchsteiner gibt den Überblick, welche Rädchen jetzt ineinander greifen und wie der ein oder andere ganz froh ist, dass Merz’ erster Arbeitstag vollgepackt ist mit Reisen.  Im 200-Sekunden-Interview ist Armin Laschet zu Gast. Gordon Repinski spricht mit ihm über das gestrige Debakel für Merz im 1. Wahlgang im Bundestag und über die außenpolitischen Herausforderungen, vor denen der neue Kanzler steht.  Hans von der Burchard ordnet die wichtigsten Themen ein, die Merz heute in Paris und Warschau zu besprechen hat und wie gut das Verhältnis zwischen ihm und Macron wirklich werden kann.  Und: Die frühere Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel weilt der Wahl von Friedrich Merz anfangs zwar bei, gibt sich dann aber überraschend verschlossen.  Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

As Europe’s frontline war leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke for millions of Europeans when he congratulated Friedrich Merz on scraping into office — on his second attempt — as the new chancellor of Germany.  “We sincerely hope that Germany will grow even stronger,” the Ukraine president said, “and that we’ll see more German leadership in European and transatlantic affairs.”  Keep hoping.  Zelenskyy’s message was diplomatic, but it contained an unmistakable critique of the gaping hole at the heart of European politics: Germany’s weak leadership and procrastination in the face of aggression from Russia and betrayal by Donald Trump’s United States.  Tuesday, May 6 was to have been the day that changed all that, giving Germany a strong new government and restoring Europe’s mojo. Instead, Bundestag members humiliated Merz with an unprecedented insult, refusing to confirm him in office even after his coalition deal was done.  It was the last thing the European Union’s centrists needed.  Even though Merz eventually won enough votes to become chancellor in a second ballot, “the political damage is done,” Katja Hoyer, an academic and author of “Beyond the Wall,” told POLITICO. “This is not the start of a confident, stable government, but a sign of how deep the fissures of the German center ground run.” AWOL IN BERLIN For the past three years, Germany has been reluctant to perform its traditional European leadership role, if not shirking it altogether. Merz’s predecessor Olaf Scholz talked a big game on defense but dragged his feet on supplying Kyiv with weaponry such as tanks and long-range missiles that Zelenskyy said he needed to repel Vladimir Putin’s invading army.  Leading a fractious three-party coalition, Scholz had little room to make big moves and eventually could not keep his government from crumbling.  Zelenskyy noted that strong leadership from Merz would be “especially important with the future of Europe at stake — and it will depend on our unity.”  Yet German politics is now deeply divided. Without “unity” at home, Merz will struggle to drive the change he says Europe needs, from a surge in defense spending to policies that can insulate German manufacturing from Trump’s tariffs and the challenges posed by China.  Olaf Scholz had little room to make big moves and eventually could not keep his government from crumbling. | Hannibal Hanschke/EPA In February’s election, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) placed a strong second with 21 percent of the vote behind Merz’s Christian Democrats and ahead of the Social Democrats. It will remain a menace to the new government as migration continues to dominate political debate. The German economy is moribund, too, with traditional industry on the slide.  These structural challenges facing Merz’s coalition characterize a political center ground that is losing its grip across Europe. The same could be said of Britain, for example. Or, more critically for the EU, France.  MACRON’S MISSTEPS Germany’s leadership is vital for the EU because the bloc’s second-biggest economy can’t escape its own political entanglements.  Last year, French President Emmanuel Macron took a gamble on a snap election in an effort to crush the far-right National Rally (RN), but instead delivered a hung parliament that is unable to agree on virtually anything. Recent polls suggest the RN’s Jordan Bardella would have a good shot at winning the French presidency in 2027.  “The whole of Europe looked to Berlin today in the hope that Germany would reassert itself as an anchor of stability and a pro-European powerhouse. That hope has been dashed. With consequences way beyond our borders,” said Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.  MERKEL’S REJECT At the heart of all this is a question. How did Merz end up making such a mess of what should have been a parliamentary formality? Was it a mistake by one or two lawmakers who thought they could get away with a protest? Or was it a deeper sign of a leader prone to political miscalculation?  During his brief time in the international spotlight so far, Merz has shown himself to be impulsive and fallible. He took a gamble in relying on AfD votes to pass migration measures in the Bundestag before the election, believing it would strengthen his CDU party’s vote. Instead, the Christian Democrats slid, while the AfD continued its march.  In astonishingly blunt statements after the polls closed on election night, Merz laid into Trump and questioned the viability of NATO. Merz’s critics point to a decision by former leader Angela Merkel to bar him from powerful positions as evidence she knew he wasn’t good enough to hold high office. If they’re right, it might be that the only thing worse for Europe than a weakened Chancellor Merz — would be a strong one. 

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Friedrich Merz ist Bundeskanzler – aber mit Makel: Im ersten Wahlgang durchgefallen. Das Update analysiert den dramatischen Tag im Bundestag, die fehlenden Stimmen aus den eigenen Reihen und das politische Beben, das Merz’ Start überschattet. Gordon Repinski und Rasmus Buchsteiner berichten: Wie kam es zur Verzögerung? Wer hat Merz die Stimme verweigert? Und warum stand plötzlich Julia Klöckner im Saal der Linksfraktion? Ein Tag voller Unsicherheiten, Gerüchte – und am Ende: Erleichterung. Jetzt beginnt die Amtszeit von Friedrich Merz. Doch der erste Eindruck bleibt: Der Weg ins Kanzleramt war holprig. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Dieser Tag steht ganz im Zeichen der Kanzlerwahl. Friedrich Merz ist an seinem Ziel, dem wichtigsten Staatsamt, angekommen. Wie er dafür sorgen kann, dass ihm seine Regierung gelingt, fasst Gordon Repinski zusammen.  Der Ex-FDP-Fraktionschef im Bundestag, Christian Dürr, ist Gast im 200-Sekunden-Interview und erklärt, warum er einen Kanzler Merz nicht seine Stimme geben würde und wie es sich anfühlt heute nur noch Zuschauer zu sein, bei dem was im Reichstagsgebäude passiert.  Rixa Fürsen berichtet, warum die CDU voraussichtlich Anspruch auf den Posten des Wehrbeauftragten erheben wird und welcher Mann in der Union aktuell beste Aussichten darauf hat.  Und: Großer Zapfenstreich für Olaf Scholz.  Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book “In Search of Berlin” is published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO columnist. Germany is good at doing things slowly. Six months ago, the country’s last government collapsed, as small-time politicians with big egos could no longer abide each other. Since then, we saw Germany hold a general election, U.S. President Donald Trump come to power and the world plunged into mayhem. In Berlin, however, things have carried on pretty much as normal. The outgoing cabinet continued to run the place in its usual fashion, competently but with little sense of purpose. The economy stuttered on. And political parties did what political parties do — connive against each other. But finally, a new administration is set to launch today. So, will things now change? According to Friedrich Merz, the Federal Republic’s 10th chancellor, his first 100 days in office will be like no other. Germany, he said, will be turbocharged into activity. And from within the ranks of his Christian Democratic Union party (CDU), which was not necessarily brimming with talent, he has been able to produce some surprising yet sensible ministerial choices. His minister for economic affairs, former energy chief executive Katherina Reiche, isn’t even in parliament, but she might know a thing or two about getting things to work. His Minister for Foreign Affairs Johann Wadephul has been strong on Ukraine and seems a popular choice around the world. Plus, the Ministry of Defense is staying with Boris Pistorius who, during the fractious years of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, was among the few to understand Germany’s need for proper armed forces. Interestingly, Merz’s entire worldview — and pitch to voters — turned on its head in the middle of his election campaign. While he was all about austerity at the start, Merz is now determined to spend his way out of Germany’s malaise. And while he gave the initial impression he might emulate some of Trump’s flourishes, that these two conservative private-sector “bros” would get on just fine, now he’s all about preserving liberal democracy from authoritarians. The remarkable turnaround was the result of U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s infamous speech at the Munich Security Conference — the first time Europe clocked that not only was the U.S. no longer its protector, but it might even be an adversary. However, Merz’s critics — and in his long and turbulent political life, there have been many — say his U-turns were deliberate deceit, and that he had no intention of sticking to the old spending rules in the first place. For instance, the Greens, who opposed the “debt brake” rule that heavily restricted borrowing, have every right to feel double-crossed, as they’re no longer in government. On the other hand, the CDU’s coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), are acting as if they won the February election, even though they suffered their most ignominious result in over a century. The coalition negotiations took less than two months, which in German terms is supersonic. During that time, in his desire to ensure harmony, Merz gave the party much of what it wanted: Seven cabinet posts is considerably more than the SPD was due, and the commitment to continued high welfare suggests structural reform will be minimal. But much will depend on Merz’s relationship with “new-kid-on-the-block” Lars Klingbeil. The SPD co-leader is the new vice chancellor and minister of finance, and both he and Merz have taken note from their predecessors: Scholz’s government collapsed because the man in charge of the finance ministry, Christian Lindner, acted as an in-house opposition. They will seek to avoid that fate. Much will depend on Merz’s relationship with “new-kid-on-the-block” Lars Klingbeil. | Clemens Bilan/EFE via EPA Meanwhile, one area where Merz will undoubtedly shine is abroad. This won’t be too hard, seeing as the charisma-free Scholz somehow managed to antagonize many of his interlocutors — even those he should have been close to, like French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. With visits to Paris, Warsaw and Brussels scheduled in quick succession, followed by one to London, Merz has pledged to restore Germany’s role as a major player on the European and world stage. It will be instructive to see how Merz’s somewhat acerbic nature copes with the many crises Germany and the Western world will face. For example, just how candid will he be with Trump when dealing with Ukraine and Russia? He’s already said he’ll reverse the Scholz government’s approach and dispatch Taurus cruise missiles to help Ukraine, which is bound to cause friction. But the key question is how this government will spend its windfall — an extra-budgetary vehicle of €500 billion to overhaul moribund infrastructure and spend on the military, all to be paid somewhere down the line. This extra cash will likely enable Germany to bounce out of recession, but as one diplomat put it to me: “Growth today, modernization tomorrow.” Even though the country’s struggling carmakers may swiftly reconfigure some plants to build military hardware — which is desperately needed — overall, Germany’s still struggling to embrace digital technology. A new ministry has been created with this exact function, but how much it can break through old bureaucratic practices will be the litmus test. After all, this isn’t the first government that’s vowed to drag Germany into the 21st century. Then, there’s the far right to contend with. Merz avowedly insists he’s not a populist, yet we can see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s influence everywhere. The new configuration of the lower house parliament, the Bundestag, has an alarmingly large bank of seats for the party, and latest opinion polls put it neck-and-neck with the CDU. Unsurprisingly, this is alarming many — but it’s still extremely early in the political cycle. Early measures on immigration, starting with enhanced border controls, will be designed to show the government is tough. The SPD will go along with them too, mindful that the AfD has already decimated its vote. This is the start of a new era that just might put a spring in Germany’s step — though that isn’t the sentiment among the “Berlin bubble,” where politicians, journalists and think tanks seem determined to write this government off before it’s even begun. Instead, much talk is of democracy’s “last chance” before the next general elections in 2029, where the AfD could emerge as the largest party. But pessimism and self-denigration are the German national sport. And though the Trump experience has taught us to never say never, Merz will be determined to prove his compatriots wrong.