BRUSSELS — The European Commission on Wednesday unveiled a €90 billion loan to
Ukraine aimed at saving it from financial collapse as it continues to battle
Russia while aid from the U.S. dries up.
About one-third of the cash will be used for normal budget expenditures and the
rest will go to defense — although countries still need to formally agree to
what extent Ukraine can use the money to buy weapons from outside the EU. A
Commission proposal gives EU defense firms preferential treatment but allows
Ukraine to buy foreign weapons if they aren’t immediately available in Europe.
While the loan is interest-free for Ukraine, it is forecast to cost EU
taxpayers between €3 billion and €4 billion a year in borrowing costs from 2028.
The EU had to resort to the loan after an earlier effort to use sanctioned
Russian frozen assets ran into opposition from Belgium.
The race is now on for EU lawmakers to agree on a final legal text that’ll pave
the way for disbursements in April, when Ukraine’s war chest runs out. Meetings
between EU treasury and defense officials are already planned for Friday. The
European Parliament could fast-track the loan as early as next week.
The financing package is also crucial for unlocking additional loans to Ukraine
from the International Monetary Fund. The Washington-based Fund wants to ensure
Kyiv’s finances aren’t overstretched, as the war enters its fifth year next
month.
The €90 billion will be paid out over the next two years, as Moscow shows no
sign of slowing down its offensive on Ukraine despite U.S.-led efforts to agree
on a ceasefire.
“Russia shows no sign of abating, no sign of remorse, no sign of seeking peace,”
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after presenting the
proposal. “We all want peace for Ukraine, and for that, Ukraine must be in a
position of strength.”
When EU leaders agreed on the loan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
called the deal an “unprecedented decision, and it will also have an impact on
the peace negotiations.”
Adding to the pressure on the EU, the U.S. under President Donald Trump has
halted new military and financial aid to Ukraine, leaving it up to Europe to
ensure Kyiv can continue fighting.
Once the legal text is agreed, the EU will raise joint debt to finance
the initiative, although the governments in the Czech Republic, Hungary and
Slovakia said they will not participate in the funding drive.
The conditions on military spending are splitting EU countries. Paris
is demanding strict rules to prevent money from flowing to U.S. weapons
manufacturers, while Germany and other Northern European countries want to give
Ukraine greater flexibility on how to spend the cash, pointing out that some key
systems needed by Ukraine aren’t manufactured in Europe.
MEETING HALFWAY
The Commission has put forward a compromise proposal — seen by POLITICO. It
gives preferential treatment to defense companies based in the EU, Ukraine and
neighboring countries, including Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, but doesn’t
rule out purchases from abroad.
To keep the Northern European capitals happy, the Commission’s proposal allows
Ukraine to buy specialized weapons produced outside the EU if they are vital for
Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. These include the U.S. Patriot long-range
missile and air defense systems.
The rules could be bent further in cases “where there is an urgent need for a
given defense product” that can’t be delivered quickly from within Europe.
Weapons aren’t considered European if more than 35 percent of their parts come
from outside the continent, according to the draft. That’s in line with previous
EU defense-financing initiatives, such as the €150 billion SAFE
loans-for-weapons program.
Two other legal texts are included in the legislative package. One proposes
using the upper borrowing limit in the current budget to guarantee the loan. The
other is designed to tweak the Ukraine Facility, a 2023 initiative that governs
the bloc’s long-term financial support to Kyiv. The Commission will also create
a new money pot to cover the borrowing costs before the new EU budget enters
into force in 2028.
RUSSIAN COLLATERAL
Ukraine only has to repay the €90 billion loan if it receives post-war
reparations from Russia — an unlikely scenario. If this doesn’t happen, the EU
has left the door open to tapping frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to
pay itself back.
Belgium’s steadfast opposition to leveraging the frozen assets, most of which
are based in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, promises to make
that negotiation difficult. However, the Commission can indefinitely roll over
its debt by issuing eurobonds until it finds the necessary means to pay off the
loan. The goal is to ensure Ukraine isn’t left holding the bill.
“The Union reserves its right to use the cash balances from immobilized Russian
assets held in the EU to repay the Ukraine Support Loan,” Economy Commissioner
Valdis Dombrovskis said alongside von der Leyen. “Supporting Ukraine is a litmus
test for Europe. The outcome of Russia’s brutal war of aggression against
Ukraine will determine Europe’s future.”
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report from Brussels.
Tag - Asset Management
Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO
Europe.
Russia’s war on Ukraine seems likely to end next year — and on terms highly
unfavorable for Kyiv.
Why the prediction? Because of the EU’s failure last week to agree to use
Russia’s money — €210 billion in frozen assets — to keep Ukraine solvent and
able to finance its war effort.
The felling of the “reparations loan” proposal, which would have recycled
Russian assets that are mostly frozen in a clearing bank in Belgium, deprives
Ukraine of guaranteed funding for the next two years.
It was Belgium’s legal anxieties over the loan, along with French President
Emmanuel Macron’s and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s reluctance to join
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in championing the proposal, that doomed it.
And all that, despite weeks of wrangling and overblown expectations by the
plan’s advocates, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Fortunately, the EU will still provide a sizable funding package for Ukraine,
after agreeing to jointly borrow €90 billion from capital markets secured
against the EU’s budget, and lend it on a no-interest basis.
But while this will prevent the country from running out of money early next
year, the package is meant to be spread out over two years, and that won’t be
sufficient to keep Ukraine in the fight. According to projections by the
International Monetary Fund, due to the reduction in U.S. financial support,
Ukraine’s budgetary shortfall over the next two years will be closer to $160
billion.
Simply put, Ukraine will need much more from Europe — and that’s going to be
increasingly difficult for the bloc to come up with.
Still, many European leaders were rather optimistic once the funding deal was
struck last week. Finnish President Alexander Stubb noted on Sunday that the
agreed package would still be linked to the immobilized Russian assets, as the
scheme envisions that Kyiv will use them to repay the loan once the war ends.
“The immobilized Russian assets will stay immobilized … and the union reserves
its right to make use of the immobilized assets to repay this loan,” he posted
on X.
Plus, the thinking goes, a subsequent loan could be added on and indirectly
linked to the Russian assets. And maybe so. But this could also be construed as
counting one’s chickens before they’re hatched, as everything depends on what
kind of deal is struck to end the war.
In the meantime, securing another loan won’t be so simple once Ukraine’s coffers
empty again.
Three countries — Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — already opted out
of last week’s joint-borrowing scheme. It isn’t a stretch to imagine others will
join them either, balking at the very notion of yet another multi-billion-euro
package in 2027, which is an important election year for both France and
Germany. Also, Trump will still be in the White House — so, no point in looking
to Washington for the additional cash.
Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images
And yet, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever still described last week’s deal,
reached after almost 17 hours of negotiations, as a “victory for Ukraine, a
victory for financial stability … and a victory for the EU.”
However, that’s not how Russian President Vladimir Putin will see it.
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had noted while seeking to persuade
European leaders to back the reparations loan: “If Putin knows, that we can stay
resilient for at least a few more years, then his reason to drag out this war
becomes much weaker.”
But that’s not what happened. And after last Friday’s debacle highlighted the
division among Europe’s leaders, surely that’s not the lesson Putin will be
taking home. Rather, it will only have confirmed that time is on his side. That
if he waits just a bit longer, the 28-point plan that his aides crafted with
Trump’s obliging Special Envoy Steve Witkoff can be revived, leaving Ukraine and
Europe to flounder — a dream outcome for the Kremlin.
Putin can also read opinion polls, and see European voters’ growing impatience
with the war in some of the continent’s biggest economies. For example,
published last week, a POLITICO Poll of 10,000 found respondents in Germany and
France even more reluctant to keep financing Ukraine than those in the U.S. In
Germany, 45 percent said they would support cutting financial aid to Ukraine,
while just 20 percent said they wanted to increase financial assistance. In
France, 37 percent wanted to give less, while only 24 percent preferred giving
more.
In the run-up to last week’s European Council meeting, Estonian Prime Minister
Kristen Michal had told POLITICO that European leaders were being handed an
opportunity to rebut Trump’s claim that they’re weak. That by inking a deal to
unlock hundreds of billions in frozen Russian assets, they would also be
answering the U.S. president’s branding of Europe as a “decaying group of
nations.”
That, they failed to do.
Less than 24 hours before EU leaders descend on Brussels for vital talks on
financing Ukraine’s war effort, Belgium believes negotiations are going in
reverse.
“We are going backward,” Belgium’s EU ambassador, Peter Moors, told his peers on
Wednesday during closed-door talks, according to two diplomats present at the
meeting.
The European Commission and EU officials are in a race against time to appease
Belgian concerns over a €210 billion financing package for Ukraine that
leverages frozen Russian state assets across the bloc. Belgium’s support is
crucial, as the lion’s share of frozen assets lies in the Brussels-based
financial depository Euroclear.
Bart De Wever, the country’s prime minister, refuses to get on board until the
other EU governments provide substantial financial and legal safeguards that
protect Euroclear and his government from Russian retaliation — at home and
abroad.
One of the most sensitive issues for Belgium is placing a lid on the financial
guarantees that currently stand at €210 billion. Belgium believes that the
guarantees provided by other EU countries should have no limits in order to
protect them under any scenario.
Talks looked to be going in the right direction. The Belgians backed a
Commission pitch for EU capitals to cough up as much as possible in financial
guarantees against the Ukrainian package — only for Belgium’s ambassador to drop
a bombshell at the end of the meeting.
“I just don’t know anymore,” one diplomat said, on condition of anonymity in
order to speak freely.
A spokesperson for the Belgian permanent representation declined to comment.
Another key demand from Belgium is that all EU countries end their bilateral
investment treaties with Russia to ensure Belgium isn’t left alone to deal with
retaliation from Moscow. But to Belgium’s annoyance, several countries are
reluctant to do so over fears of retribution from the Kremlin.
Moors said during the meeting that any decision on the use of the assets will
have to be taken by De Wever, according to an EU diplomat.
Belgium is pushing the Commission to explore alternative options to finance
Ukraine, such as issuing joint debt — a position that’s gained traction with
Bulgaria, Italy, and Malta.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen cautiously opened the door to
joint debt during a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday
morning.
“I proposed two different options for this upcoming European Council, one based
on assets and one based on EU borrowing. And we will have to decide which way we
want to take,” she said.
But joint debt requires unanimous support, unlikely given Hungarian Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán’s threats to veto further EU aid to Kyiv.
Moors proposed a possible workaround on Tuesday by suggesting triggering an
emergency clause — known as Article 122 — that would nullify the veto threat.
The Commission and Council’s lawyers rebuffed the Belgian pitch at the same
meeting, saying it was not legally viable.
The idea was first proposed by the president of the European Central Bank,
Christine Lagarde, during a dinner of finance ministers last week, but has been
challenged by Northern European countries.
De Wever is expected to suggest this option during the meeting of EU leaders on
Thursday.
Russia’s central bank on Friday filed a lawsuit in Moscow against Brussels-based
Euroclear, which houses most of the frozen Russian assets that the EU wants to
use to finance aid to Ukraine.
The court filing comes just days before a high-stakes European Council summit,
where EU leaders are expected to press Belgium to unlock billions of euros in
Russian assets to underpin a major loan package for Kyiv.
“Due to the unlawful actions of the Euroclear depository that are causing losses
to the Bank of Russia, and in light of mechanisms officially under consideration
by the European Commission for the direct or indirect use of the Bank of
Russia’s assets without its consent, the Bank of Russia is filing a claim in the
Moscow Arbitration Court against the Euroclear depository to recover the losses
incurred,” the central bank said in a statement.
Belgium has opposed the use of sovereign Russian assets over concerns that the
country may eventually be required to pay the money back to Moscow on its own.
Some €185 billion in frozen Russian assets are under the stewardship of
Euroclear, the Brussels-based financial depository, while another €25 billion is
scattered across the EU in private bank accounts.
With the future of the prospective loan still hanging in the air, EU ambassadors
on Thursday handed emergency powers to the European Commission to keep Russian
state assets permanently frozen. Such a solution would mean the assets remain
blocked until the Kremlin pays post-war reparations to Ukraine, significantly
reducing the possibility that pro-Russian countries like Hungary or Slovakia
would hand back the frozen funds to Russia.
While Russian courts have little power to force the handover of Euroclear’s euro
or dollar assets held in Belgium, they do have the power to take retaliatory
action against Euroclear balances held in Russian financial institutions.
However, in 2024 the European Commission introduced a legal mechanism to
compensate Euroclear for losses incurred in Russia due to its compliance with
Western sanctions — effectively neutralizing the economic effects of Russia’s
retaliation.
Euroclear declined to comment.
ATHENS — The country that almost got kicked out of the eurozone is now running
the powerful EU body that rescued it from bankruptcy.
Greece’s finance minister, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, on Thursday beat Belgian Deputy
Prime Minister Vincent Van Peteghem in a two-horse race for the Eurogroup
presidency. Although an informal forum for eurozone finance ministers, the post
has proved pivotal in overcoming crises — notably the sovereign debt crisis,
which resulted in three bailouts of the Greek government.
That was 10 years ago, when Pierrakakis’ predecessor described the Eurogroup as
a place fit only for psychopaths. Today, Athens presents itself as a poster
child of fiscal prudence after dramatically reducing its debt pile to around 147
percent of its economic output — albeit still the highest tally in the eurozone.
“My generation was shaped by an existential crisis that revealed the power of
resilience, the cost of complacency, the necessity of reform, and the strategic
importance of European solidarity,” Pierrakakis wrote in his motivational letter
for the job. “Our story is not only national; it is deeply European.”
Few diplomats initially expected the 42-year-old computer scientist and
political economist to win the race to lead the Eurogroup after incumbent
Paschal Donohoe’s shock resignation last month. Belgium’s Van Peteghem could
boast more experience and held a great deal of respect within the eurozone,
setting him up as the early favorite to win.
But Belgium’s continued reluctance to back the European Commission’s bid to use
the cash value of frozen Russian assets to finance a €165 billion reparations
loan to Ukraine ultimately contributed to Van Peteghem’s defeat.
NOT TYPICAL
Pierrakakis isn’t a typical member of the center-right ruling New Democracy
party, which belongs to the European People’s Party. His political background is
a socialist one, having served as an advisor to the centre-left PASOK party from
2009, when Greece plunged into financial crisis. He was even one of the Greek
technocrats negotiating with the country’s creditors.
The Harvard and MIT graduate joined New Democracy to support Prime Minister
Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ bid for the party leadership in 2015, because he felt that
they shared a political vision.
Pierrakakis got his big political break when New Democracy won the national
election in 2019, after four years of serving as a director of the research and
policy institute diaNEOsis. He was named minister of digital governance,
overseeing Greece’s efforts to modernize the country’s creaking bureaucracy,
adopting digital solutions for everything from Cabinet meetings to medical
prescriptions.
Those efforts made him one of the most popular ministers in the Greek cabinet
— so much so that Pierrakakis is often touted as Mitsotakis’ likely successor
for the party leadership in the Greek press.
Few diplomats initially expected the 42-year-old computer scientist and
political economist to win the race to lead the Eurogroup after incumbent
Paschal Donohoe’s shock resignation last month. | Nicolas Economou/Getty Images
After the re-election of New Democracy in 2023, Pierrakakis took over the
Education Ministry, where he backed controversial legislation that paved the way
for the establishment of private universities in Greece.
A Cabinet reshuffle in March placed him within the finance ministry, where he
has sped up plans to pay down Greece’s debt to creditors and pledged to bring
the country’s debt below 120 percent of GDP before 2030.
BRUSSELS — Belgium is demanding that the EU provide an extra cash buffer to
ensure against Kremlin threats over a €210 billion loan to Ukraine using Russian
assets, according to documents obtained by POLITICO.
The cash buffer is part of a series of changes that the Belgian government wants
to make to the European Commission’s proposal, which would be financed by
leveraging €185 billion of frozen Russian state assets held by the
Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. The remaining €25 billion would
come from other frozen Russian assets, lying in private bank accounts across the
bloc — predominantly in France.
Belgium’s fresh demand is designed to give Euroclear more financial firepower to
withstand Russian retaliation.
This cash buffer would come on top of financial guarantees that EU countries
would provide against the €210 billion loan to protect Belgium from paying back
the full amount if the Kremlin claws back the money.
In its list of amendments to the Commission, Belgium even suggested increasing
the guarantees to cover potential legal disputes and settlements — an idea that
is opposed by many governments.
Belgium’s demands come as EU leaders prepare to descend on Brussels on Dec. 18
to try and secure Ukraine’s ability to finance its defences against Russia. As
things stand, Kyiv’s war chest will run bare in April. Failure to use the
Russian assets to finance the loan would force EU capitals to reach into their
own pockets to keep Ukraine afloat. But frugal countries are politically opposed
to shifting the burden to EU taxpayers.
Belgium is the main holdout over financing Ukraine using the Russian assets,
amid fears that it will be on the hook to repay the full amount if Moscow
manages to claw its money back.
The bulk of this revenue is currently being funneled to Ukraine to pay down a
€45 billion loan from G7 countries, with Euroclear retaining a 10 percent buffer
to cover legal risks. | Artur Widak/Getty Images
In its list of suggested changes, Belgium asked the EU to set aside an
unspecified amount of money to protect Euroclear from the risk of Russian
retaliation. It said that the safety net will account for “increased costs which
Euroclear might suffer (e.g. legal costs to defend against retaliation)” and
compensate for lost revenue.
According to the document, the extra cash buffer should be financed by the
windfall profits that Euroclear collects in interest from a deposit account at
the European Central Bank, where the Kremlin-sanctioned money is currently
sitting. The proceeds amounted to €4 billion last year.
The bulk of this revenue is currently being funneled to Ukraine to pay down a
€45 billion loan from G7 countries, with Euroclear retaining a 10 percent buffer
to cover legal risks. In order to better protect Euroclear, Belgium wants to
raise this threshold over the coming years.
BRUSSELS — France and Italy can breathe a sigh of relief after the EU’s
statistics office signaled that the financial guarantees needed to back a €210
billion financing package to Ukraine won’t increase their heavy debt burdens.
Eurostat on Tuesday evening sent a letter, obtained by POLITICO, informing the
bloc’s treasuries that the financial guarantees underpinning the loan, backed by
frozen Russian state assets on Belgian soil, would be considered “contingent
liabilities.” In other words, the guarantees would only impact countries’ debt
piles if triggered.
Paris and Rome wanted Eurostat to clarify how the guarantees would be treated
under EU rules for public spending, as both countries carry a debt burden above
100 percent of their respective economic output.
Eurostat’s letter is expected to allay fears that signing up to the loan would
undermine investor confidence in highly indebted countries and potentially raise
their borrowing costs. That’s key for the Italians and French, as EU leaders
prepare to discuss the initiative at a summit next week. Failure to secure a
deal could leave Ukraine without enough funds to keep Russian forces at bay next
year.
The Commission has suggested all EU countries share the risk by providing
financial guarantees against the loan in case the Kremlin manages to claw back
its sanctioned cash, which is held in the Brussels-based financial depository
Euroclear.
“None of the conditions” that would lead to EU liability being transferred to
member states “would be met,” Eurostat wrote in a letter, adding that the
chances of EU countries ever paying those guarantees are weak. The Commission
instead will be held liable for those guarantees, the agency added.
Germany is set to bear the brunt of the loan, guaranteeing some €52 billion
under the Commission’s draft rules. This figure will likely rise as Hungary has
already refused to take part in the funding drive for Ukraine. The letter is
unlikely to change Belgium’s stance, as it wants much higher guarantees and
greater legal safeguards against Russian retaliation at home and abroad.
The biggest risk facing the Commission’s proposal is the prospect of the assets
being unfrozen if pro-Russia countries refuse to keep existing sanctions in
place.
Under current rules, the EU must unanimously reauthorize the sanctions every six
months. That means Kremlin-friendly countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, can
force the EU to release the sanctioned money with a simple no vote.
To make this scenario more unlikely, the Commission suggested a controversial
legal fix that will be discussed today by EU ambassadors. Eurostat described the
possibility of EU countries paying out for the loan as “a complex event with no
obvious probability assessment at the time of inception.”
EU countries will need to individually commit billions of euros to guarantee as
much as €210 billion in urgently needed loans to Ukraine, with Germany set to
backstop up to €52 billion, according to documents obtained by POLITICO.
The European Commission presented the eye-watering totals to diplomats last week
after unveiling a €165 billion reparations loan to Ukraine using the cash value
of frozen Russian assets.
The backstops, which would be divided up proportionally among countries across
the bloc, are needed to secure a go-ahead on the loan from Prime Minister Bart
De Wever. The Belgian leader has opposed the use of sovereign Russian assets
over concerns that his country alone may eventually be required to pay the money
back to Moscow. Some €185 billion in frozen Russian assets are under the
stewardship of the Brussels-based financial depository, Euroclear, while another
€25 billion is scattered across the bloc in private bank accounts.
The per-country totals may go up, however, if Kremlin-friendly countries such as
Hungary refuse to join the initiative — though non-EU countries may help, if
they choose, by covering some of the overall guarantee. Norway had been mooted
as a possible candidate until its finance minister, Jens Stoltenberg, distanced
Oslo from the idea.
Ukraine faces a budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year and will have to
start cutting public spending from April unless fresh money arrives. Hungary on
Friday vetoed issuing new EU debt to plug Kyiv’s budget gap, putting the onus on
leaders to convince De Wever to support using Russian assets when EU leaders
meet on Dec. 18, rather than dipping into their own national coffers.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was in Brussels on Friday evening to reassure
De Wever that Germany would provide 25 percent of the backstop, the largest
share of any country.
“We had a very constructive exchange on this issue,” Merz said after dining with
the Belgian leader. “Belgium’s particular concern about the question of how to
make use of frozen Russian assets is undeniable and must be addressed in any
conceivable solution in such a way that all European states bear the same risk.”
CHECKS AND BALANCES
The proposed reparations loan earmarks €115 billion to finance Ukraine’s defense
industry over five years, while €50 billion would cover Kyiv’s budgetary needs.
The remaining €45 billion from the overall package would repay a G7 loan to
Ukraine, issued last year.
The funds would be disbursed in six payments over the year, according to the
Commission’s slideshows.
Certain checks and balances would be in place to prevent crooks from pocketing
the money. In terms of defense spending, for example, this would include
ensuring that the contracts and the spending plans are acceptable to the
Commission.
The Commission would also detail Ukraine’s financing needs and outline where the
government receives military and financial aid, allowing EU capitals to track
the money streaming to Kyiv.
BRUSSELS — Hungary formally ruled out issuing eurobonds to support Ukraine on
Friday, a move that robs the EU of a potential Plan B should it fail to find a
way to use frozen Russian state assets to finance a €165 billion loan to Kyiv.
The European Commission wants the 27 EU member countries to agree at a summit
later this month to support Kyiv’s faltering economy with a loan based on
immobilized Russian central bank reserves. Belgium is pushing back hard as it
holds the lion’s share of that frozen cash and fears it would be on the hook if
the Kremlin sues.
Eurobonds would have provided an alternative funding stream to Ukraine, but
Budapest rejected the idea of issuing joint debt backed by the EU’s seven-year
budget, two diplomats at a meeting of ambassadors told POLITICO.
Hungary’s rejection came hours before a dinner between German Chancellor
Friedrich Merz and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever in Brussels to discuss
the loan.
Merz said he was planning to use the event to bring De Wever on board.
“I take the concerns and objections of the Belgian prime minister very
seriously,” Merz told reporters on Thursday night. “I don’t want to persuade
him, I want to convince him that the path we are proposing here is the right
one.”
Germany is offering a backstop on 25 percent of the funds to convince Belgium to
send the frozen billions to Ukraine, but De Wever wants a broader guarantee from
the whole EU that Belgium will be insured for the full amount, or more.
The Commission proposed eurobonds on Wednesday as one of two options, along with
the Russian asset-backed loan, to ensure that Ukraine’s war chest doesn’t run
bare as soon as next April.
Raising debt through the EU budget to prop up Ukraine requires a unanimous vote,
however. Hungary’s rejection now raises the stakes for what are expected to be
intense negotiations on the loan before EU leaders gather in Brussels on Dec.
18.
Officials did not expect an immediate breakthrough given De Wever’s strong
opposition.
The Commission has repeatedly downplayed the financial and legal risks
associated with the reparation loan and insists its proposal addresses most of
Belgium’s concerns.
The proposed reparations loan earmarks €115 billion to finance Ukraine’s defense
industry over five years, while €50 billion would go to cover Kyiv’s budgetary
needs.
James Angelos contributed reporting from Berlin.
Russia’s frozen state assets in the EU are better suited as a bargaining chip to
achieve peace in Ukraine instead of financing a €165 billion reparations loan
for Kyiv, according to the chief executive of Euroclear.
“At this stage, it would be better to use that money for peace negotiations,
rather than setting up an extremely complex and risky legal structure and then
losing that leverage in the talks,” Valérie Urbain told Belgian broadcaster VRT
on Friday.
Urbain’s comments follow the European Commission’s proposed reparations loan on
Wednesday, two weeks ahead of an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels. Ukraine’s war
chest is expected to run dry in April, and leaders must decide whether to use
sanctioned Kremlin cash to ensure Kyiv’s survival or support the war effort with
taxpayer money.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff suggested that the same assets instead be used for
American-led reconstruction efforts once a truce has been agreed.
The U.S. would take “50 percent” of the profit from this activity, according to
an initial 28-point peace plan, which was heavily criticized by Europeans for
favoring Moscow and subsequently replaced by a rehashed plan — which doesn’t
appear to be gaining any traction with the Kremlin anyway.
The Belgian government, led by Flemish nationalist Bart De Wever, fears the
reparations loan could trigger Russian retaliation. De Wever is demanding that
EU capitals provide financial guarantees that can pay out at a moment’s notice
in case Moscow manages to claw the funds back.
Euroclear, the Brussels-based depository, also has a direct stake in the
negotiations as it holds the lion’s share of the frozen Russian assets. The
financial risks of linking the assets to the reparations loan are too big,
Urbain added. Euroclear’s possible bankruptcy from the initiative would “affect
the attractiveness of the European market” and impact the global financial
market.
The Commission has said that the proposals address most of Belgium’s and
Euroclear’s concerns. De Wever isn’t convinced. Commission President Ursula von
der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are meeting with the Belgian
premier this evening to try bring him on board.