Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge to pardon a vast swath of supporters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. But his silence on the matter since winning the election has begun unsettling some fervent allies awaiting even the slightest signal from Trump about how he intends to turn his campaign rhetoric into reality. Federal judges overseeing Jan. 6 cases have been left to guess at Trump’s plans. As a result, they have allowed nearly all cases to proceed, saying Trump’s clemency plans are merely “speculative.” Meanwhile, federal prosecutors have brought a handful of new Jan. 6 felony cases since Election Day, and they’ve argued repeatedly against efforts by defendants to delay their cases to await Trump’s inauguration. The Justice Department has charged more than 1,500 people for their roles in the riot. Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly said he would pardon many of them. But he left the specifics unclear, and never said whether he might leave in place some prosecutions, particularly against people who assaulted police. Now that he’s president-elect, his failure to say more has begun nagging at some of his die-hard supporters, who have engaged in a public guessing game on X about Trump’s intentions. “[H]onestly people have suffered for 4 years and many are still in flux and terrified. A word of reassurance from the top would go a long way for people,” wrote Brandon Straka, a prominent Trump ally who spent three months in home detention after pleading guilty to Jan. 6 misdemeanors. “The silence on the issue just exacerbates the victims’ anxiety. Hopefully some kind of messaging comes soon.” Adding to the anxiety expressed by some Jan. 6 defendants is a statement from Trump’s transition team that hinted at a far more limited approach than the sweeping pardons that many in Trump’s base have demanded. “President Trump will make pardon decisions on a case-by-case basis,” incoming White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in the statement. The meaning of “case-by-case” has morphed into a raging debate among Jan. 6 defendants and their allies. “It is just a phrase. ‘Case by case,’ It isn’t a policy, or a strategy, or anything,” wrote Suzzanne Monk, a longtime advocate for Jan. 6 defendants. “It is a catch phrase the media is using to push the ‘only some will be pardoned’ narrative.” In addition to the controversy over Trump’s clemency plans, Jan. 6 defendants have also been puzzling over whether his pick for attorney general, Pam Bondi, will be a reliable ally in shutting down the four-year criminal investigation into the attack on the Capitol, which disrupted the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. John Lauro, one of Trump’s personal lawyers, said in a recent interview with an advocate for Jan. 6 defendants that he has been close to Bondi for 35 years but has not discussed her views on the riot. “I know she will take this issue very seriously,” Lauro said in the interview with Julie Kelly. “Knowing her like I do, she will ensure every person in the criminal justice system has been dealt with fairly and justly.” At times during the 2024 campaign, Trump suggested he would pardon virtually all Jan. 6 defendants, including those who assaulted police. At others, he has said he might not pardon those who “got out of control.” A spokesperson for Trump declined to address the concerns cropping up among Jan. 6 defendants, instead pointing POLITICO to Trump’s comments during the campaign. The spokesperson, Steven Cheung, did not respond to requests for clarification about the scope of potential pardons by Trump. Trump reportedly considered a blanket pardon for those who stormed the Capitol in the final two weeks of his first term. But he ultimately opted against it. A federal judge Trump appointed during his first term recently criticized the notion that Trump might reconsider such a broad pardon in the future. On the other side of the ledger, two Trump allies in Congress — Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) — issued new calls this week for Trump to issue blanket pardons. Kelly, who has spoken with Trump and congressional Republicans about concerns with Jan. 6 prosecutions, has similarly called for a blanket pardon to address what she calls a “blanket denial of the due process rights of Jan. 6 protesters.” Kelly suggested that Trump’s public silence belies an enormous amount of advocacy behind the scenes, but she said there are also “political sensitivities” about the notion of pardoning those with assault charges — even though she believes many such pardons would be justified. Compounding the concern among some supporters is Trump’s failed and short-lived bid to appoint former Florida lawmaker Matt Gaetz as attorney general. Gaetz has been among the most vocal figures in Washington calling for pardons for Jan. 6 defendants, and his selection was seen as a harbinger of Trump’s plan to take the most aggressive approach possible. But Gaetz withdrew his name from contention after many Republicans questioned whether the scandal-plagued lawmaker could get confirmed. Bondi, Trump’s new pick to lead the Justice Department, has said nothing publicly about Jan. 6, the perpetrators of the Capitol attack or whether she agrees with Trump’s view of the riot. Monk, who is leading an effort called the J6 Pardon Project, has told allies she is working to open lines of communication with Bondi. In the meantime, Jan. 6 defendants and allies have continued hoping and speculating. “We are literally holding our breath over here, hoping that my husband is under this pardon,” said one ally, Kari Hoffman, who said her husband, Luke Hoffman, is in jail on “bogus assault charges” and called Trump a “smart man.” Former Cowboys for Trump head Couy Griffin, one of the first Jan. 6 defendants to go to trial, emphasized that Trump is responsible for the huge crowd assembling in Washington that day. “The only reason that myself and a million others like me were in DC on January 6th is because @realDonaldTrump called us there. As the sitting President Donald Trump specifically told us that China had stolen the election,” Griffin wrote. “Now we sit on the edge of our seats in suspense as we pray to be relieved and rectified,” Griffin added, calling the riot ”the greatest ENTRAPMENT in American history.”

Donald Trump has defeated Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, flipping the state and dealing a blow to Democrats’ pivotal Blue Wall. His victory there marks a major setback for Democrats in the Midwest. When Trump won the state in 2016, he became the first Republican to carry Wisconsin since 1984. But Joe Biden won it back in 2020 by just over 20,000 votes. In both elections, the state had been the tipping point in the Electoral College. Trump this year will take the state’s 10 electoral votes.

On second thought, hold that Champagne. After months of campaigning, a last-minute swap at the top of the presidential ticket and one of the closest-fought election races in recent American history, election day has finally arrived in the United States. But don’t expect Europe to join in the election night fun.  In stark contrast to pre-pandemic ballots, U.S. election night 2024 promises to be a sober affair in Europe, with U.S. officials in most European power centers having ditched the usual festivities. Embassies from Brussels to London, Paris and Berlin have decided against holding their usual watch parties. The reason? The Trump effect. Many officials are still smarting from the shock 2016 election, when Donald Trump unexpectedly beat Hillary Clinton for the presidency — a political earthquake that left many top members of America’s diplomatic corps exposed as they absorbed the stunning election results in the presence of hundreds of journalists, foreign diplomats and officials who had been invited to election night parties.  “I don’t think there was appetite to watch another Trump victory,” said a senior diplomat based in Europe, adding that the 2016 embassy events had been “calamitous.” That cringe moment was captured by former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, who recalled in her autobiography how she had invited all female ambassadors to the U.N. to her residence for an election night bash only to watch her dreams of America’s first woman president go up in smoke.  Similar scenes played out in embassies across Europe. In Brussels in November 2016, then-Ambassador Anthony Gardner hosted an election party in the regal U.S. Embassy on Boulevard du Régent in Brussels. Attendees entered through the foyer under a smiling portrait of then-Commander in Chief President Barack Obama.  Attendees enjoyed wine and amuse-bouches as they watched the results roll in on giant TV screens. But as it became apparent voters were breaking for Trump, the mood darkened; one woman wept quietly. Trump’s poll-defying win revived uncomfortable Brussels bubble memories of the shock Brexit referendum result a few months earlier.  This time around, then, Europe is hedging its bets. The U.S. Mission in Brussels is not hosting a party (though the U.S. ambassador to Belgium will host a breakfast the following day). Similarly, embassies in London, Paris and Berlin won’t be opening their doors, though the U.S. Embassy in Rome is hosting an election night event Tuesday.  The decision to nix election night festivities may also reflect the unusually politicized nature of America’s diplomatic corps. Most of the State Department’s top envoys around the world are political appointees and allies or donors of the sitting president. The current U.S. ambassadors in Europe’s top capitals, for example — like Ambassador Mark Gitenstein in Brussels and Ambassador Jane Hartley in London — are close allies of Democratic President Joe Biden.  A spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in London said it “appreciates the long-standing energy and excitement around U.S. presidential elections which have been carried out over nearly 250 years of democracy,” but added that “election day does not end on election night. Time may be required to count votes and let the electoral process work.” The comments captured another underlying reason why diplomats may be avoiding the public glare on election night — there is deep unease about the strength of the U.S. democratic system after disputes about the outcome of the 2020 election led to an attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.  Eight years on from 2016, the cautious approach to election night also reflects the dramatically different approach that Europe is taking to the prospect of a Trump presidency this time around. Having been caught on the wrong foot by Trump’s victory in 2016, European and American top officials are resolved not to let the same thing happen again.  The EU, like governments around Europe, has been game-planning a possible Trump victory after having been blindsided in 2016. Over the last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s top official, Björn Seibert, has been huddling with ambassadors of the EU’s 27 countries and other top officials to model how the bloc will respond to the U.S. election.  Though transatlantic relations will endure challenges, whoever wins on Nov. 5 — Vice President Kamala Harris has signaled she will prioritize American workers and raise tariffs — the possibility of a second Trump presidency has alarmed the EU. Trump’s policy vision could wreak havoc on the EU-U.S. relationship: His plans to increase tariffs would likely unleash a trade war, while he has called on Europe to cough up more on defense and on Ukraine, and has declined to commit to NATO. Not to mention what a Trump presidency would mean for international cooperation on climate, which could pressure Europe to increase its own efforts to tackle the climate crisis.  One person who will have some bubbly on ice is Hungarian strongman Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who called Trump to wish him luck last week. As it happens, Orbán, whose country holds the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, will be hosting European leaders in Budapest for a summit later this week as the U.S. results roll in. He has said he will open “several bottles of Champagne” if Trump wins — but he could find himself drinking alone.  Rosa Prince and Clea Caulcutt contributed to this report.