The latest article on this topic.
As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in
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Tag - China
Wired is reporting on Chinese darknet markets on Telegram.
> The ecosystem of marketplaces for Chinese-speaking crypto scammers hosted on
> the messaging service Telegram have now grown to be bigger than ever before,
> according to a new analysis from the crypto tracing firm Elliptic. Despite a
> brief drop after Telegram banned two of the biggest such markets in early
> 2025, the two current top markets, known as Tudou Guarantee and Xinbi
> Guarantee, are together enabling close to $2 billion a month in
> money-laundering transactions, sales of scam tools like stolen data, fake
> investment websites, and AI deepfake tools, as well as other black market
> services as varied as ...
Scammers are generating images of broken merchandise in order to apply for
refunds.
New report: “The Party’s AI: How China’s New AI Systems are Reshaping Human
Rights.” From a summary article:
> China is already the world’s largest exporter of AI powered surveillance
> technology; new surveillance technologies and platforms developed in China are
> also not likely to simply stay there. By exposing the full scope of China’s AI
> driven control apparatus, this report presents clear, evidence based insights
> for policymakers, civil society, the media and technology companies seeking to
> counter the rise of AI enabled repression and human rights violations, and
> China’s growing efforts to project that repression beyond its borders...
This quote is from House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful
Company.
> “Long before anyone had heard of Ren Zhengfei or Huawei, Wan Runnan had been
> China’s star entrepreneur in the 1980s, with his company, the Stone Group,
> touted as “China’s IBM.” Wan had believed that economic change could lead to
> political change. He had thrown his support behind the pro-democracy
> protesters in 1989. As a result, he had to flee to France, with an arrest
> warrant hanging over his head. He was never able to return home. Now, decades
> later and in failing health in Paris, Wan recalled something that had happened
> one day in the late 1980s, when he was still living in Beijing...
Google has filed a complaint in court that details the scam:
> In a complaint filed Wednesday, the tech giant accused “a cybercriminal group
> in China” of selling “phishing for dummies” kits. The kits help unsavvy
> fraudsters easily “execute a large-scale phishing campaign,” tricking hordes
> of unsuspecting people into “disclosing sensitive information like passwords,
> credit card numbers, or banking information, often by impersonating well-known
> brands, government agencies, or even people the victim knows.”
>
> These branded “Lighthouse” kits offer two versions of software, depending on
> whether bad actors want to launch SMS and e-commerce scams. “Members may
> subscribe to weekly, monthly, seasonal, annual, or permanent licenses,” Google
> alleged. Kits include “hundreds of templates for fake websites, domain set-up
> tools for those fake websites, and other features designed to dupe victims
> into believing they are entering sensitive information on a legitimate
> website.”...
Good Wall Street Journal article on criminal gangs that scam people out of their
credit card information:
> Your highway toll payment is now past due, one text warns. You have U.S.
> Postal Service fees to pay, another threatens. You owe the New York City
> Department of Finance for unpaid traffic violations.
>
> The texts are ploys to get unsuspecting victims to fork over their credit-card
> details. The gangs behind the scams take advantage of this information to buy
> iPhones, gift cards, clothing and cosmetics.
>
> Criminal organizations operating out of China, which investigators blame for
> the toll and postage messages, have used them to make more than $1 billion
> over the last three years, according to the Department of Homeland Security...
Bill McKibben isn’t known for his rosy outlook on climate change. Back in 1989,
he wrote The End of Nature, which is considered the first mainstream book
warning of global warming’s potential effects on the planet. Since then, he’s
been an ever-present voice on environmental issues, routinely sounding the alarm
about how human activity is changing the planet while also organizing protests
against the fossil fuel industries that are contributing to climate change.
McKibben’s stark and straightforward foreboding about the future of the planet
was once described as “dark realism.” But he has recently let a little light
shine through thanks to the dramatic growth of renewable energy, particularly
solar power. In his new book, Here Comes the Sun: A Last Chance for the Climate
and a Fresh Chance for Civilization, McKibben argues that the planet is
experiencing the fastest energy transition in history from fossil fuels to solar
and wind—and that transition could be the start of something big.
“We’re not talking salvation here,” McKibben says. “We’re not talking stopping
global warming. But we are talking the first thing that’s happened in the 40
years that we’ve known about climate change that scales to at least begin taking
a serious bite out of the trouble we’re in.”
On this week’s More To The Story, McKibben sits down with host Al Letson to
examine the rise of solar power, how China is leapfrogging the United States in
renewable energy use, and the real reason the Trump administration is trying to
kill solar and wind projects around the country.
Subscribe to Mother Jones podcasts on Apple Podcasts or your favorite podcast
app.
This following interview was edited for length and clarity. More To The
Story transcripts are produced by a third-party transcription service and may
contain errors.
Al Letson: Bill, how are you this morning?
Bill McKibben: I’m actually pretty darn good, which one feels bad about saying
in the midst of planetary ecological trauma and the collapse of our democracy,
but it’s a beautiful day in the mountains of Vermont and in the midst of all
that bad stuff, I’ve got one piece of big good news, which it’s actually kind of
fun to share.
Yeah, I think in the midst of all the stress and pressure and sadness about the
way the world is heading at this moment, I think having joy is a revolutionary
act and it’s good. I think when you come outside and the sun is shining and it
feels good outside, I don’t know. I don’t think we should be ashamed of it. I
think we should bask it and hold onto it as long as possible because good Lord,
who knows what’s next?
Amen. One of the results of having spent my whole life working on climate change
is I never take good weather for granted. If there’s a snowstorm, I make the
most out of every flake. If there’s a beautiful cool fall-like morning like
there was today, nobody’s out in it quicker than me. So I take your point 100%.
How long have you been working in the field of environmental justice and
thinking about the environment?
Al, when I was 27, I wrote a book called The End of Nature, so this would’ve
been 1989 because I’m an old person. So, wrote a book called The End of Nature
that was the first book about what we now call the climate crisis, what we then
call the greenhouse effect. And that book, well, that book did well, it came out
in 24 languages and things, but more to the point, it just made me realize that
this was not only the most important question in the world, what was going to
happen to the Earth’s climate, but the most interesting, that it required some
understanding of science, but also more importantly of economics, of politics,
of sociology, of psychology, of theology, of pretty much everything you could
imagine. And so for 38 years now, I guess, it’s been my work and at some level,
I wish I’d been able to spend my life on something not quite so bleak. On the
other hand, I have to confess, I haven’t been bored in any point in there.
Yeah. How would you describe the environmental causes in America since you’ve
been watching it for so long? It seems to me that there’s a lot of one step
forward, three steps back, one step forward, three steps back.
I’d say it’s been more like one step forward, three quarters of a step back over
and over again. And that’s a big problem because it’s not only that we have to
move, it’s that we have to move fast. Climate change is really probably the
first great question we’ve ever come up against that has time limit. As long as
I’ve been alive and as long as you’ve been alive, our country’s been arguing
over should we have national healthcare? I think we should. I think it’s a sin
that we don’t, people are going to die and go bankrupt every year that we don’t
join all the other countries of the world in offering it, but it’s not going to
make it harder to do it when we eventually elect Bernie and set our minds to it
than if we hadn’t delayed all this time.
Climate change isn’t like that. Once you melt the Arctic, nobody has a plan for
how you freeze it back up again. So we’re under some very serious time pressure,
which is why it’s incredibly sad to watch our country pretty much alone among
the world in reverse right now on the most important questions.
Yeah. Is that forward movement and regression tied to our politics, i.e., is it
tied to a specific party? If the Democrats are in office, we move forward, if
Republicans come in office, we move backwards?
Yeah, in the largest terms. The fossil fuel industry, more or less purchased the
Republican Party 30, 35 years ago. Their biggest contributors have been the Koch
brothers who are also the biggest oil and gas barons in America. And so it’s
just been become party doctrine to pretend that physics and chemistry don’t
really exist and we don’t have to worry about them. Democrats have been better,
and in the case of Joe Biden actually, considerably better. His Inflation
Reduction Act was the one serious attempt that America’s ever made to deal with
the climate crisis, and it was far from perfect, and there were plenty of
Democrats like Joe Manchin that got in the way and so on and so forth. But all
in all, it was a good faith effort driven by extraordinary activism around the
Green New Deal. And it’s a shame to see it now thrown into reverse in the Trump
administration, especially because the rest of the world is at different paces,
some of them very fast, starting to do the right thing here.
So given all of that where we are and kind of stepping back away from the
progress we had made forward, you just wrote a new book that is pretty
optimistic, which is a little bit different for you because you’ve been
described as dark realism. Tell me why are you feeling optimistic in this
moment?
About 36 months ago, the planet began an incredible surge of installation of
renewable energy, solar panels, wind turbines, and the batteries to store that
power when the sun goes down or the wind drops. That surge is not just the
fastest energy transition play on the planet now. It’s the fastest energy
transition in history and by a lot, and the numbers are frankly kind of
astonishing. I mean, the last month we have good data for is May. In China, in
May, they were putting up three gigawatts of solar panels a day. Now, a gigawatt
is the rough equivalent of a big coal-fired power plant. So they were building
the equivalent of one of those worth of solar panels every eight hours across
China. Those kind of numbers are world-changing if we play it out for a few more
years, and if everybody joins in. And you can see the same thing happening in
parts of this country.
California has not done everything right, but it’s done more right than most
places, and California has hit some kind of tipping point in the last 11 or 12
months. Now, most days, California generates more than a hundred percent of the
electricity it uses from clean energy, which means that at night, when the sun
goes down, the biggest source of supply on their grid is batteries that didn’t
exist three years ago. And the bottom line is a 40% fall in fossil fuel use for
electricity in the fourth-largest economy in the world is the kind of number
that, adopted worldwide, begins to shave tenths of a degree off how hot the
planet eventually gets. And we know that every 10th of a degree Celsius, that
the temperature rises, moves another a hundred million of our brothers and
sisters out of a safe climate zone and into a dangerous one. We’re not talking
salvation here, we’re not talking stopping global warming, but we are talking
the first thing that’s happened in the 40 years that we’ve known about climate
change, that scales to at least begin taking a serious bite out of the trouble
we’re in.
Yeah, so I own a home in Jacksonville, Florida.
In the Sunshine State.
In the Sunshine State. I was planning on getting solar panels for the house, but
then I was told A, one, it would be really expensive, and then B, it wouldn’t
save me that much on my bill because of the way some local ordinances are
configured. And so for me, somebody who wants to have solar panels and wants to
use solar power, it’s just not cost-effective. So how do we get past that?
Well, there’s a lot of ways. One of the ways was what Biden was doing in the
IRA, which was to offer serious tax credits. And those, despite the Republican
defeat of them, remain in effect through the end of this year through New Year’s
Eve. So if people move quickly, they can still get those. Probably more
important in the long run, and this was the subject of a long piece I wrote for
Mother Jones this summer, we need serious reform in the way that we permit and
license these things.
Putting solar panels on your roof in Florida is roughly three times more
expensive than it is to put solar panels on your roof in say, Australia, to pick
someplace with a similar climate, or Europe, someplace with a more difficult
climate, costs three times as much here. A little bit of that’s because of
tariffs on panels. Mostly it’s because every municipality in America, they send
out their own team of inspectors, permits, on and on and on. It’s a bureaucratic
mess, and that’s what drives the price up so dramatically.
There’s actually an easy way to do it. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
developed a piece of software called the Solar App Plus that allows contractors
to just plug in the name of the type of equipment they’re going to put on the
roof and the address that they’re doing it, and the computer quickly checks to
see if it’s all compatible, and if it is, they get an instantaneous permit and
get to work right away. And then, for apartment dwellers, because there’s almost
as many apartment dwellers as homeowners in this country, who don’t have access
to their own roof usually, we need another set of easy technology. We’re calling
this balcony solar.
And across Europe over the last three years, three and a half, 4 million
apartment dwellers have gone to whatever you call Best Buy in Frankfurt or
Brussels and come home for a few hundred euros with solar panel design just to
be hung from the railing of a apartment balcony and then plugged directly into
the wall. No electrician needed nothing. That’s illegal every place in this
country except that progressive bastion in the state of Utah where the state
legislature unanimously passed enabling legislation earlier this year because
some Libertarian Republican state senator who I’ve talked to, an interesting
guy, he said, “Well, if people in Stuttgart can have it, why not people in
Provo?” And no one had a good reason, so now there’s on YouTube lots of videos
of Happy Utahns putting up their balcony solar arrays.
So let me just to clarify that because I never heard of this before. In
overseas, in different countries, they can go to, I don’t know, an Ikea and grab
a solar panel, come home and plug it in the wall to power their apartment?
It often powers 25% of the power that they’re using in their apartment. It’s a
real amazing thing and it’s for a few hundred euros. And among other things, it
really introduces people to the joy of all this. There was a big story in The
Guardian a few months ago following all sorts of people who’d done this and
almost to a person, they’d all become fascinated by the app on their phone
showing how much power they were generating at any given moment.
Solar power is kind of a miracle. It exists in so many different sizes, from
your balcony to big solar farms, all of which we need. But the thing that’s a
miracle about it is precisely that it’s available to all of us. I mean, no one’s
going to build a coal-fired power plant on their balcony. This is something that
everybody can do, and it’s something that once you’ve got the panel, no one can
control. We’re talking about energy that can’t be hoarded, that can’t be held in
reserve, and that essentially the sun delivers for free every day when it rises
above the horizon. So that is an extraordinary boon to especially poor people
around the world and an extraordinary threat to the fossil fuel industry, which
is why you’re seeing the crazy pushback that marks the Trump administration.
So with the Trump administration and this bill that they passed, The Big
Beautiful Bill, that impacts tax credits for renewable projects like solar, how
is that going to affect the solar power industry in the United States?
It’s going to decimate it. There are already companies laying people off and
going out of business because that tax credit was important and it’s, since we
can’t do anything in Washington at the moment, why we need state and local
governments to step up big to change the rules here and try to keep this
momentum going in the States. The United States accounts for about 11% of
emissions in the world. The other 89%, things are going much better than they
are here, not just in China, but in all the places that China touches.
In some ways, the most powerful story for me in the book was what happened in
Pakistan last year. Now, Pakistan’s been hit harder by climate change than any
country on earth. Its cities now routinely report temperatures of 125, 126
degrees. The two worst floods that really we’ve ever recorded on the planet
happened in Pakistan over the last 15 years. Right now there’s big major, not
quite as bad, but really serious flood across the Punjab. Pakistan also has an
expensive and unreliable electric system. So about 18 months ago, people began
importing in very large numbers, cheap Chinese solar panels from across their
shared border. And within six months, eight months, Pakistanis, without
government help, just basically using directions you can get on TikTok, had
installed enough solar panels to equal half of the existing national electric
grid in Pakistan. It’s the most amazing sort of citizen engineering project in
history and of incredible value to people.
Farmers in Pakistan, I don’t know if you’ve traveled in rural Asia, but the
soundtrack of at part of the world is the hum of diesel pumps, often the cough
of diesel generators because you need to bring up this irrigation water from
quite a great depth to wells that came with the green revolution. Often for
farmers, that diesel is the biggest single input cost that they have. So farmers
were very early adopters here. Many of them lacked the money to build the steel
supports that we’re used to seeing to hold your solar panels up. They just laid
them on the ground and pointed them at the sun. Pakistanis last year used 35%
less diesel than they did the year before. Now the same thing is happening in
the last six months across large parts of Africa. Pretty much any place where
there’s really deep established trade relations with China, and it’s not just
solar panels.
What the Chinese are also doing is building out the suite of appliances that
make use of all that clean, cheap electricity. The most obvious example being
electric vehicles and electric bikes. More than half the cars sold in China last
month came with a plug dangling out the back, and now those are the top-selling
cars in one developing nation after another around the world because they’re
cheap and they’re good cars and because if you’re in Ethiopia or Djibouti or
wherever you are, you have way more access to sunshine than you do to the
incredibly long supply chain that you need to support a gasoline station.
But my understanding, and my understanding is definitely dated, which is why I’m
glad I’m talking to you, but for a very long time, my understanding of solar
power was that it wasn’t that efficient, that you wouldn’t be able to get enough
power to really do much of anything versus fossil fuels. Is it true that the
Chinese have really invested in the technology and really pushed it forward?
Yeah, I mean Chinese are now, you’ve heard of petro states, the Chinese are the
first electro state in the world. This stuff works great and it works great
here. I mean, I was telling you about what’s going on in California. In some
ways, an even more remarkable story, given the politics, is that Texas is now
installing clean energy faster than California because it’s the cheapest and
it’s the fastest thing to put up. If you’re having to build data centers, and
God knows, I’m not convinced we have to build as many data centers as we’re
building, but if you do, the only thing that builds fast enough to get them up
is solar or wind. You can put up a big solar farm in a matter of a few months as
fast as you can build the dumb data center.
Your question’s really important because for a very long time, all my life,
we’ve called this stuff alternative energy, and it’s sort of been there on the
fringe like maybe it’s not real big boy energy the way that oil and gas is. I
think we’ve tended to think of it as the Whole Foods of energy. It’s like nice,
but it’s pricey. It’s the Costco of energy now. It’s cheap, it’s available in
bulk, it’s on the shelf ready to go. 95% of new electric generation around the
world and around the country last year came from clean energy, and that’s
precisely why the fossil fuel industry freaked out. You remember a year ago,
Donald Trump told oil executives, “If you give me a billion dollars, you can
have anything you want.” They gave him about half a billion between donations
and advertising and lobbying. That was enough because he’s doing things even
they couldn’t have imagined. I mean, he’s shut down two almost complete big wind
farms off the Atlantic seaboard. I mean, it’s craziness. We’ve never really seen
anything like it.
Do you think we’ll be able to bounce back? As we’re watching all of these
forward movements that have happened before Trump came back into office, it
feels like he is burning it all down and not just burning it down, but salting
the earth. Nothing’s going to grow there again.
Yeah, I completely hear you. Yeah. This one possibility. Look, 10 years from
now, if we stay on the course that Trump has us on, any tourist who can actually
get a visa to come to America, it’ll be like a Colonial Williamsburg of internal
combustion. People will come to gawk at how people used to live back in the
olden days. I don’t think that that’s what’s going to happen. I think that at
some point, reality is going to catch up with this, and everyone’s going to
start figuring out we’re paying way more for energy than else in the world, and
that means our economy is always on the back foot. That means that our consumers
are always strapped. I mean, electricity prices are up 10% this year so far
around this country because he keeps saying, “We’re not going to build the
cheapest, fastest way to make more electricity.”
I don’t see how that can last. But then I don’t see how any of this, none of it…
I mean, I confess, I feel out of my depth now, the hatred of immigrants, the
racial hatred, the insane economic policy around tariffs, none of it makes any
real sense to me politically or morally. So I could be wrong, but I hope that
America, which after all was where the solar cell was invented and where the
first solar cell came out of Edison, New Jersey in 1954, the first commercial
wind turbine in the world went up on a Vermont mountain about 30 miles south of
where I’m talking from you speaking in the 1940s. That we’ve now gifted the
future to China is just crazy no matter what your politics are.
The idea that we are ceding ground to China is not just about solar energy, but
in all sorts of ways. The move of the Trump administration to be sort of
isolationists is actually hurting us way more than being open and growing and
advancing.
Yep, I couldn’t agree more. Look, I’ve been to China a bunch of times. I’m glad
that I’m not a Chinese citizen because doing the work I do, I would’ve been in
jail long ago, and I’m aware of that and understand the imperfections and deep
flaws in that country. But I also understand that they have a deep connection to
reason. They’ve elected engineers, or not elected, appointed engineers to run
their country now for decades while we’ve been electing lawyers to run ours. And
as a result, they’re not surprisingly better at building stuff. And so they
have. And I think now, they’re using that to build a kind of moral legitimacy in
the world. If the biggest problem the world faces turns out to be climate
change, and I have no doubt that it is, then China’s going to be the global
leader in this fight because we’ve just walked away from it.
Yes. The question that comes to mind when you say that is, it’s clear to me that
what some climate change skeptics and renewable energy skeptics have been able
to do is to wrap things like solar power and wind energy into the culture war.
So now that it’s a part of the culture war, people just stand against it
because, well, they’re on the wrong team. Instead of looking at the economic
reality that their bills could go down significantly if they dived in.
It’s super true, but it’s also true that solar power is remarkably popular
across partisan lines. The polling we have shows that yeah, the Republican
voters are less enamored of it now because Trump’s been going so hard after it,
but still like it by large margins and want more government support for it. I
think the reason is that there are several ways to think about this. I’m
concerned about climate change. I’m a progressive. I like the idea that we’re
networking the groovy power of the sun to save our planet, but I’ve lived my
whole life in rural America, much of it in red state, rural America. I have lots
of neighbors who are very conservative. There’s lots of Trump flags on my road,
and some of them fly in front of homes with solar panels on them because if
you’re completely convinced that your home is your castle and that you’re going
to defend with your AR-15, it’s a better castle if it has its own independent
power supply up on the roof, and people have really figured that out.
So this can cut both ways, and I hope that it will. That’s that story from Utah
about the balcony solar. That’s the one place where people have said, “Well,
there’s no reason not to do this. Let’s do it.”
Yeah. So you’ve been doing this work for a really long time. I’m curious, when
you started doing this work, could you have ever imagined the place that we are
in right now as a country?
No. Remember I was 27 when I wrote this first book, so my theory of change was
people will read my book and then they will change. Turns out that that’s not
exactly how it works. It took me a while to figure out. Really the story of my
life is first 10 years after that, I just kept writing more books and giving
talks and things because I thought being a journalist that we were having an
argument and that if we won the argument, then our leaders would do the right
thing because why wouldn’t they? Took me too long, at least a decade, to figure
out that we had won the argument, but that we were losing the fight because the
fight wasn’t about data and reason and evidence. The fight was about what fights
are always about, money and power. And the fossil fuel industry had enough money
and power to lose the argument, but keep their business model rolling merrily
along.
So that’s when I started just concluding that we needed to organize because if
you don’t have billions of dollars, the only way to build power is to build
movements. I started with seven college students, a thing called 350.org that
became the first big global grassroots climate movement campaign. We’ve
organized 20,000 demonstrations in every country on earth except North Korea.
And in recent years, I’ve organized for old people like me, what we call Third
Act, which now has about 100,000 Americans that work on climate and democracy
and racial justice. And so this is a big sprawling fight, we don’t know how it’s
going to come out. The reason I wrote this book, Here Comes the Sun, was just to
give people a sense that all is not lost, that we do have some tools now that we
can put to use.
Find More To The Story on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, Pandora, or your
favorite podcast app, and don’t forget to subscribe.
Few have felt the whiplash of President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again
tariffs with China more than American farmers. The US is the world’s largest
exporter of agricultural products, from corn to soybeans, wheat, and cotton. And
the largest importer of America’s farm products? China. The two countries have
engaged in a back-and-forth series of escalating levies since Trump imposed
tariffs on the country in April. Those tariffs were then deemed illegal the
following month by a US trade court, and the administration is currently
appealing that decision.
One of the many farmers caught in limbo is Bryant Kagay, who raises cattle and
grows soybeans, corn, and wheat. Kagay says he voted for Trump last year even
though Trump promised that as president, he would place tariffs on the very
products Kagay sells to China. But now, Kagay questions whether the president
has a long-term trade strategy and is increasingly concerned about what the
market will look like come harvest time this fall.
“I like to think that my corn is really good, but as far as the markets are
concerned, my corn doesn’t really look any different than anybody else’s,” Kagay
says. When a farmer from a country with low or no tariffs can sell corn cheaper
than Kagay’s on the global market, he adds, that farmer will win out.
As the US and China continue negotiating, Kagay talks with host Al Letson about
how tariffs from Trump’s first term affected his farm, why he voted for Trump in
2024 knowing tariffs could jeopardize his business, and why farmers are often
hesitant to take government subsidies—yet often accept them anyway.
Subscribe to Mother Jones podcasts on Apple Podcasts or your favorite podcast
app.
Find More To The Story on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, Pandora, or your
favorite podcast app, and don’t forget to subscribe.
This interview was edited for length and clarity.
Al Letson: So tell me about your farm. From what I understand, you weren’t
living in this area, you weren’t living in Missouri for a while, and then you
and your family came back.
Bryant Kagay: Yeah, well, I’m the fourth generation on our family farm. I guess
my great-grandfather, he started a very small operation and then my grandfather
has grown it, really, mostly in the 60s and 70s and 80s. But yeah, following
college, I had a corporate job, lived in several different states, but in 2018
my wife and I decided to come back and work into the farm, more in a
management-type role, management trainee, if you will, type role. And I’ve
continued to take more responsibility since coming back.
How many employees do you have on the farm?
Yeah, so it’s myself, my dad, my 87-year-old grandfather is still involved as
much as he can be. And then we have two full-time employees and currently one
part-time employee. So we’re a fairly small operation as far as manpower goes.
What do you produce?
So our main products, corn, soybeans, wheat, and then we also have a cattle
operation. Many will refer to it as a cow-calf, so we have cows, produce calves
from them, but then we also have, often referred to as a beef feedlot or a
finishing operation that we feed cattle to get them right up to the point of
them going to the meat processor for them to become the finished product.
So you’re running a family business that depends on international trade. We’ve
been following President Trump’s trade war with China. What would really steep
tariffs mean for your farm?
I think that what they mean for our farm is, it’s not that different from what
they would mean to everybody. We live in a very global economy, a global market.
So many of the products that we purchase, both on the farm and within our
households and within any business you run, often come from overseas. Those
trade networks and industries have been set up, many of them have been in place
for decades. Chinese manufacturing, we’ve been making things in China for years
and years, and they’ve gotten pretty good at it. They’ve got pretty good systems
to get them shipped here. I think steep tariffs will, at least for the
foreseeable future, will mostly raise the prices that everyday Americans and
farmers spend on the things that they buy. So I think that’s how it affects all
Americans.
Now, how does it affect me differently? Well, many of the products I sell that
get shipped into overseas markets or international markets, now they are looking
to buy that commodity from somewhere else. And what I’m selling is a commodity.
I like to think that my corn is really good, but as far as the markets are
concerned, my corn doesn’t really look any different than anybody else’s. So if
mine is now 20% higher or 120% higher, whatever these tariffs are, I’ll buy it
somewhere else, because it’s the same stuff.
Are you scared that if these tariffs continue that it will basically put you out
of business? If China can buy soybeans from Central America at a much cheaper
price than what they would buy them from you, how is that going to affect your
farm in the long term, especially if these tariffs stay up?
For our farm, personally, we try to manage things very financially conservative.
So do I feel that a trade war would put us out of business? No, probably not,
because if a trade war puts us out of business, it’s going to put a whole lot of
other people out of business first, and there are business owners that have
probably taken on more risk. And at the end of the day though, if there are,
let’s just put it in simple terms, a hundred units of soybeans produced globally
and China uses 50 of them, whether they get 50 from the United States or 50 from
everywhere else, all the soybeans are probably going to go somewhere and get
used. It’s that friction that gets added in the system for tariffs that, well,
now instead of sending multiple large container ships to China with soybeans,
I’ve got to send a hundred smaller container ships to multiple other countries
to make that same sale. So you lose that economic efficiency the more hurdles
you put in this trade deal.
So what do you think of Trump’s reasons for imposing these tariffs?
Well, it depends what day you get. So someday, one day, it may be, “I’m going to
impose these tariffs because I want to bring American manufacturing back.” And
you think, “Well, I could get behind parts of that in some industries.” But for
that to happen, we’ve got to have consistent tariffs for a long time because I’m
not going to come build a factory tomorrow, it’s going to take years. There’s
whole supply chains that have to be built up around it, and if I’m an investor
or a business owner, I don’t want to build a factory when tomorrow he may say,
“Well, tariffs are off. We worked out a deal.” On one side, this long-term play
that, “I want to get manufacturing and jobs back to the United States.” Which
yeah, I think, I don’t know too many of us that would argue with that, but
there’s a lot of hurdles to doing that and that’s a long-term play.
And then the other side is, “Well, I’m just using it as a bargaining chip. I’m
going to get him to the table and get better deals.” And he’s maybe done some of
that. I don’t know. I’m not a hundred percent confident that he has a really
clear vision for exactly how this plays out. I think, I don’t know, it’s been so
uncertain whether, are these short-term, we’re going to try to get short-term
deals, or is this a long-term strategic, we’re going to rebuild American
manufacturing? And I don’t know where it is because it changes every week.
And when we talk about, is it a long-term goal, I’ve done a lot of reporting on
manufacturing in the past, and the thing that keeps coming to me is that it may
be a long-term goal that is really unrealistic in the sense that I can’t imagine
Americans going to work in manufacturing plants where the pay is not going to be
the type of pay that… The reason why all the manufacturing is in different parts
of the world is because their economies are different and people will go in
there and work for a couple dollars an hour, whereas, here in America, people
would need government aid to survive off of working in a factory if we were
paying the same amount to workers that they do in China. So it doesn’t feel like
a realistic goal to me, it feels like manufacturing at that scale is in our past
and not really in our future.
Yeah, I completely agree. I just think, yeah, if you want to talk automobile
manufacturing or some of those higher level, more advanced type manufacturing.
Yeah, and maybe there’s a national defense reason we need more computer chip
manufacturing in the country, but if you think we’re going to have a Nike
sneaker factory in the country, come on. These other countries have been doing
this for decades. They’re good at it. They’ve got systems set up, they’ve got
the people to work there. I don’t know any of my neighbors who want to go sit at
a sewing machine and make t-shirts all day. That’s not what this country’s going
to do. It’s probably not realistic.
Yeah. So all that being said, in 2024 you voted for Trump knowing that this may
be what he would do. How did you come to the decision to vote for him?
That is a very good question, and it was something that I struggled with, to be
a hundred percent honest, I was not thrilled with either candidate. I’m a little
bit embarrassed that on the global stage, these are the best two candidates that
we could come up with out of this great country. I was very uncomfortable with
the Harris campaign on some social issues, some other things. I was very
uncomfortable with the Trump campaign on a lot of, I guess, his personal
character issues that I am very uncomfortable with. I don’t think it represents
our country very well, what we stand for very well. Ultimately, because you look
at what a president can do, I felt like his policies long-term were probably
more in line with what I wanted, but this was not something that I was really
sold on either way. So I did know that these trade wars were possibly coming. I
also felt that his business experience, I guess I felt, much like he says, some
of the time that he would use these type of things as a bargaining token, but at
the end of the day, I do feel he’s got a decent business acumen and would
recognize that, yeah, we’re not going to bring a bunch of manufacturing back to
this country. Maybe we should use our power on the global stage to get some
better trade deals. I was hopeful that amidst all the rhetoric and all the talk
that he would use them maybe more wisely than I feel he has to this point.
Let me run down some numbers for you here to… Because I want to focus up that
you said that he’s got a good business acumen. In 1991, his casino, the Taj
Mahal, bankrupt. In 1992, Trump Plaza Hotel, bankrupt. Castle Hotel Casino, ’92,
bankrupt. Trump Hotels, Casino and Resorts in 2004, bankrupt. Trump
Entertainment Resorts in 2009, bankrupt. I could go on, there’s more. I would
say that the way we have talked about Trump, both in the media… Because I
believe that the reality show that he was on where he’s got that great saying,
“You’re fired.” It’s myth building. It makes this idea that he is a really great
business man, but the truth of the matter is that when you look into his
business deals, I mean he had a college that the government had to sanction and
shut down because it was ultimately deemed, and I may be putting it in
colloquial terms, but it was ultimately deemed a scam. So I mean, how do you
feel about that when you think about it, looking at it from this vantage point?
Yeah, maybe I should have rephrased my previous statement as he has given us
this idea that he has a lot of business acumen. I’ve always questioned whether
he really does or not, because I see those things that you’ve mentioned.
Apparently he’s been pretty good at running failed businesses and enriching
himself, which that is what pointed to a lot of the character issue that I had
voting for him to begin with. I mean, that’s one of the character issues. I
still think it’s no secret. I live in a very red area and the people I talk to,
I think there’s still some that they still are very confident that he has this
really good plan that this is all going to work out for the better. And I guess
I don’t necessarily… I don’t have that much confidence. I think he’s doing a lot
of running his mouth without much of a plan, and maybe it’ll end up okay in the
end if he throws his power around enough. But I’m a little more skeptical.
So Bryant, your farm has been in your family for a very long time. How have you
seen farming change over the years?
There have been a lot of changes in agriculture over the long term. When I think
about my great-grandfather, he would’ve started with some horse-drawn equipment,
likely moved into tractors pretty quickly thereafter, but nothing on the scale
of what we use today. There’s a lot of technology that we use to try to make
sure every product we use gets put in the right place at the right time, and we
are just better at conserving land and water resources as well.
I’ve done a lot of reporting with farmers in the past, and the one thing that I
think our listeners may not understand or know, is really like the economics of
farming. So I’m just curious if you can break down for my listeners, what’s your
income like and how do you get that income? Do you get a big check from
delivering cows to market? How does all that work?
I think from the outside people see, we deliver a lot of high value products,
whether it’s right now cattle are at record highs. The checks we receive from
selling cattle are very high. The checks we receive from selling grain can be
very big. To the average American, that’s a lot of money. The issue is that we
have so many expenses tied to producing that crop that really very little of it
is profit. As far as the money, when I had a corporate job, I had a paycheck
every two weeks. I had so much money that went into my bank account and that was
very reliable and consistent. With this, it’s a lot more inconsistent and you
find the business can pay for a lot of our living expenses. So my out-of-pocket
expenses are less, but I don’t take just regular paychecks. Mostly what we do is
we take our profits and invest those back into the business through land and
equipment that it’s like this business has it’s built in 401(K) that you’re
investing in assets all the time and eventually you hope to get a pretty big
asset base, but you don’t do it through collecting a lot of cash in your bank
account. It goes elsewhere.
When it comes to competition, it seems to me that you are dealing with different
factors than your dad had, than your grandfather, than your grandfather had. And
I’m thinking of specifically with the rise of big agriculture and these big
company farms that I would imagine make it hard to compete because of the
resources that they have.
Yeah, I think what’s often referred to as corporate farms probably get a lot of
bad press. I think there can be some confusion in just because you’re a really
large farming operation doesn’t mean it’s not still family owned and operated,
but it may not still have that same family feel that I feel our operation does.
As you get bigger, you do have to put some corporate structure, mid-level
managers, a lot more process and procedure in place. We have seen over the past
10 years, especially some of the very biggest producers have continued to grow,
and I think the economics have worked out for them to do that. And they’ve
really built systems and as equipment gets bigger, they’re just able to cover a
lot more acres. I think for our operation, we decided that our way to improve
and build for the future was not necessarily to try to achieve scale at all
costs, but to try to focus more on a more diverse operation and also just to
produce, let’s say, higher quality over quantity, let’s put it that way.
Yeah. So take me back to 2018 when President Trump imposed tariffs on China.
This is right around the time when you are starting to come back to the farm.
How’d that affect you and your family?
Yeah, so that was an interesting year. We had a pretty severe drought that first
summer I came back and then trade war with China on top of that. So it was a
pretty rough year that first year, but I guess I was still getting my feet under
me. So maybe I didn’t fully grasp, I just thought that was normal, but that
first trade war, it did severely affect the price of soybeans, primarily because
China is such a huge buyer of US soybeans. We produce a lot of soybeans, and
when your largest customer, the harder you make that to do trade with them, that
directly affects our bottom line. And then on top of that, they come through
with these direct payments from the government that I think are a touchy subject
amongst farmers. I’m not going to tell you we turned ours away. You feel like
it’s a competitive market. You can’t reject it on principle, but at the same
time, I don’t think any of us feel like that’s how we want markets to operate.
We try to be self-sufficient and run our business in a way that can be
profitable and let me do that. I don’t need the government to come in and write
me a check to make sure I stay in business.
Yeah, that’s what I was going to ask you is why do you think it’s a touchy
subject?
Well, I think if you ask many people, in the parts of the country I live, about
welfare programs, SNAP, they might look at those with a negative light. This
idea that, “Hey, I work really hard to support myself. I don’t need the federal
government coming in and doing that for me.” And then all of a sudden I’m a
farmer and I’m taking this check from the government because government-induced
tariffs reduce the value of my product. At the same time, I don’t know any
farmer who turned theirs away who said, “Well, I don’t believe in it, so I’m not
going to accept it.” We all took it, but I ultimately think it’s really those
programs aren’t administered very well on who actually needs them the worst. And
also if you give all a certain number of farmers in the same area, a whole bunch
of money, it’s no different than the COVID payments that drove a lot of
inflation. You can’t just hand out a bunch of money and not have other effects
in the economy. And I think we saw that as well through that.
So there’s a lot of debate about whether those payments actually helped or hurt,
and I’ll let economists argue over that. The thing that stands out for me when I
think about those payments is that when Trump did it, the left complained. And
when Biden did it, the right complained. To me, what it tells me is that America
has turned politics into sports. Maybe neither party is functioning or serving
Americans particularly well, but because of team loyalty, people just go with it
and sometimes they vote not for their interests, but for the team that they
represent, their home team, the thing that they feel strongly about.
Yeah, I think there’s a lot of reasons that our political system has drifted
this way. I live in a congressional, like a house district that there’s
virtually zero chance that it would ever flip to blue. So I think our incumbent,
as long as he continues to say and do right-leaning things, he’s never going to
be challenged. And he’s never going to be held to account for how much he
actually accomplishes because, “Hey, he’s on my team, so I’m not going to go
against something that my team wants.” But it’s something that American politics
really has to figure out. I think we continue to go through these cycles where
really nothing really happens. And I just think with this many smart people, we
have to be able to come together and come up with solutions that maybe the edges
of both sides are not thrilled with, but ultimately move our country forward.
And I don’t know what it’s going to take to get there, but I too am very
frustrated with this polarized, “I pick my team. The other team can do nothing
right and my team can do nothing wrong.” Because we just know that’s just not
how it works, and it’s just not true. I’m not confident enough in my own
abilities, knowledge, biases, to think that I have all the solutions to make all
this better. I know we need both sides to be able to come together, but our
political system, our primaries, there’s so many reasons why that doesn’t
happen. And I don’t know what it’s going to take to break, but you just see
these presidential elections that are so evenly split, so much urban rules, so
much class-based voting, and it’s not good for our country, and we do need some
leaders who can really bridge that and try to bring people together for a
greater good.
You just gave a great campaign speech. I’m just saying. You are looking for an
answer and I think you might be it. I’m just saying. Bryant Kagay, thank you so
much for talking to me, and thank you for being open, man. You just have a good
conversation. I am going to be thinking about this conversation for days to
come. I really appreciate it.
Thank you. I enjoy it. I try to be open and honest and I appreciate those kind
words. I try to be a reasonable voice amidst all the polarization, so thank you.
One one my biggest worries about VPNs is the amount of trust users need to place
in them, and how opaque most of them are about who owns them and what sorts of
data they retain.
A new study found that many commercials VPNS are (often surreptitiously) owned
by Chinese companies.
> It would be hard for U.S. users to avoid the Chinese VPNs. The ownership of
> many appeared deliberately opaque, with several concealing their structure
> behind layers of offshore shell companies. TTP was able to determine the
> Chinese ownership of the 20 VPN apps being offered to Apple’s U.S. users by
> piecing together corporate documents from around the world. None of those apps
> clearly disclosed their Chinese ownership...