A major outage of Amazon Web Services servers affecting multiple websites Monday
morning prompted immediate calls for Europe to boost its tech sovereignty.
Slack, Snapchat, Signal and Perplexity were among the affected sites. Amazon Web
Services (AWS) offers cloud servers that allow these services and millions of
other websites and platforms to run.
Brussels is in the midst of a debate on how to achieve digital sovereignty, and
what that means exactly, with cloud services at the center of the conversation.
EU leaders are expected to take a position during a high-level summit meeting
later this week.
“Today’s outage shows how concentrated power makes the internet fragile and this
lack of resilience hits our economies as a result,” technologist Robin Berjon
said in an email. Berjon co-founded the Eurostack project — an initiative
campaigning to make Europe self-reliant in digital services.
“Europe’s dependency on monopoly cloud companies like Amazon is a security
vulnerability and an economic threat we can’t ignore,” Cori Crider, executive
director of the Future of Technology Institute, said in an email.
According to AWS’s health dashboard, which shows a “running log of AWS service
interruptions for the past 12 months,” the outage originated with servers in
North America and specifically Virginia.
That prompted reaction including from Ulrike Franke, senior fellow at the
European Council on Foreign Relations: “My robot vacuum cleaner no longer works
and can someone explain why a robot in Paris is linked to U.S. East? Talk about
European digital sovereignty…” she posted on Bluesky.
“These disruptions are not just technical issues, they’re democratic failures,”
said Corinne Cath-Speth, head of digital at civil society group Article 19.
“When a single provider goes dark, critical services go offline with it — media
outlets become inaccessible, secure communication apps like Signal stop
functioning, and the infrastructure that serves our digital society crumbles.”
“We urgently need diversification in cloud computing,” she added.
Transcription service Trint said in an email that it had experienced disruption
but “customers on our EU servers should be largely unaffected.”
In a statement shared with media outlets, Amazon Web Services said: “We continue
to observe recovery across most of the affected AWS Services. We can confirm
global services and features that rely on US-EAST-1 have also recovered. We
continue to work towards full resolution and will provide updates as we have
more information to share.”
Asked at a briefing of reporters in Brussels on Monday, European Commission
spokesperson Markus Lammert said the outage “would be a question for the
companies, this is not for us to comment on.”
With regard to how it had affected the Commission’s own operations, Paula Pinho,
chief spokesperson for the European Commission, said: “We were more using for
instance e-mails. We go back to our traditional methods.”
Pieter Haeck contributed reporting.
Tag - Supply chain security
LONDON — The U.K., Canada and the EU are mulling a coordinated response at the
G7 level to China’s expansion of export controls on critical minerals at a key
meeting at the end of this month.
With Canada due to host G7 ministers in Toronto at the end of October, the
allies are seeking to accelerate efforts to diversify away from Beijing’s
dominance in the rare-earth sector.
This comes after Beijing last week announced new restrictions on foreign access
to rare-earth magnets and the refined metals and alloys needed to make them over
national security concerns.
The move immediately raised alarm from the EU and G7 allies over supply chain
security for technologies ranging from electric vehicles and wind turbines, to
F-35 fighter jets and naval vessels. China mines about 60 percent and processes
about 90 percent of the world’s rare-earth metals.
Ministers from the G7 are “putting our shoulders to the task, buckling down and
trying to get as many concrete steps taken as we can to create alternatives for
the critical minerals that have been put on export restrictions,” Canadian
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson told POLITICO in an interview
Thursday at the end of a three-day trip to London.
“We had a meeting with the G7 envoys on critical minerals while I was here, all
working towards further development of a coordinated, multilateral approach to
dealing with the recent restrictions,” Hodgson said. “We’re working on those as
we speak and we’ll hopefully have some announcements by the time we get to the
minister’s meeting in Toronto at the end of the month.”
The move immediately raised alarm from the EU and G7 allies over supply chain
security for technologies ranging from electric vehicles and wind turbines, to
F-35 fighter jets and naval vessels. | AFP via Getty Images
According to one EU official briefed on the G7 discussions, the Canadians are
working on a term sheet of measures to accelerate stockpiling, activate critical
mineral partnerships, and build out mining activities in a more concerted
approach.
EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič this week urged the G7 to respond jointly.
Šefčovič is expected to discuss the matter with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang
Wentao early next week.
The European Commission is seeking to foster coordinated measures against
Beijing’s curbs, two other Commission officials told POLITICO. One of them said
the EU executive would launch a study of the impact of the new bans on EU
industry early next week.
“It’s coercion. We need to see how we will respond,” said the other Commission
official, who like the others cited in the story was granted anonymity to
discuss the sensitive discussions.
CODEPENDENCY RISK
China’s export curbs triggered an escalatory threat from President Donald Trump
to hit Beijing with 100 percent tariffs. While Washington has since scaled back
the confrontation, top U.S. officials are also drawing the consequences of
Beijing’s lockdown on critical minerals.
“China’s actions have once again demonstrated the risk of being dependent on
them, on rare earths, and for that matter, anything,” Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent said. “If China wants to be an unreliable partner to the world, then the
world will have to decouple. The world does not want to decouple.”
China’s export curbs triggered an escalatory threat from President Donald Trump
to hit Beijing with 100 percent tariffs. | Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post
via Getty Images
Hodgson and Canadian Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin will host their G7
counterparts from top global economies, including the U.S., Japan, Italy,
Germany, the U.K. and France, in Toronto from Oct. 30-31.
Beijing’s new restrictions are an “amping up” of curbs on critical minerals
China has announced this year, Hodgson said. G7 allies, he added, are working on
“a number of actual contracts” with private sector firms that they hope to
announce at the Toronto meeting.
The G7 is encouraging international firms and other countries to use financial
tools to increase global supplies of critical minerals. “That would include
things like stockpiling agreements, that would include things like off-take
agreements, that would include things like potentially contract for differences
on critical minerals,” Hodgson said.
Ottawa is working to implement these “in real terms” following the June G7
leaders meeting in Canada, where Prime Minister Mark Carney proposed a critical
minerals buying group, Hodgson said. “Canada is a potential supplier of many of
those critical minerals.”
Securing supply chains of critical minerals is playing an increasingly vital
role in geopolitics as China tightens the tap on supplies. The U.K. renewed
trade talks with Greenland this month, promising to secure critical minerals
supply chains. And in Mumbai last week, Britain’s Keir Starmer and India’s
Narendra Modi buckled down to collaborate on downstream processing and research
projects to “strengthen and diversify critical mineral supply chains.”
During his stay in London, Hodgson met U.K. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and
Britain’s critical minerals envoy, Industry Minister Chris McDonald.
“We believe that multilateralism is the way to counter non-market activities by
certain states,” Hodgson said, advocating for multilateralism in response to
China’s crackdown.
“We don’t believe using trade as a tool of state manipulation is in anyone’s
interest.”
Graham Lanktree reported from London, Camille Gijs and Bjarke Smith-Meyer from
Brussels and Clea Caulcutt from Paris. Doug Palmer and Jacopo Barigazzi
contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — Two of Europe’s tech powerhouses tied the knot on Tuesday in a
landmark deal that bolsters a push by politicians to reduce reliance on the
United States for critical technology.
Dutch microchips champion ASML confirmed it was investing €1.3 billion in French
AI frontrunner Mistral, one of the few European companies that is able to go
head-to-head with U.S. leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic on artificial
intelligence technology.
It’s a business deal soaked in politics.
Officials from Brussels to Paris, Berlin and beyond have called for Europe to
reduce its heavy reliance on U.S. technology — from the cloud to social media
and, most recently, artificial intelligence — under the banner of “tech
sovereignty.”
“European tech sovereignty is being built thanks to you,” was how France’s
Junior Minister for Digital Affairs and AI Clara Chappaz cheered the deal on X.
Europe has struggled to stand out in the global race to build generative AI ever
since U.S.-based OpenAI burst onto the scene in 2022 with its popular ChatGPT
chatbot. Legacy tech giants like Google quickly caught up, while China proved
its mettle early this January when DeepSeek burst onto the scene.
European politicians can showcase the ASML-Mistral deal as proof that European
consumers and companies still can rely on homegrown tools. That need has never
been more urgent amid strained EU-U.S. ties under Donald Trump’s repeated
attacks against EU tech regulation.
But the deal also illustrates that while Europe can excel in niche areas, like
industrial AI applications, winning the global consumer AI chatbot race is out
of reach.
EUROPE KEEPS CONTROL
Tuesday’s deal brings together two European companies that are most closely
watched by those in power.
ASML, a 40-year-old Dutch crown jewel, has grown into one of the bloc’s most
politically sensitive assets in recent years. The U.S. government has repeatedly
tried to block some of the company’s sales of its advanced microchips printing
machines to China in an effort to slow down Chinese firms.
Mistral is only two years old but has been politically plugged in from the
start, with former French Digital Minister Cédric O among its co-founders.
When the company faced the need to raise new funding this summer, several
non-European players were floated as potential backers, including the Abu
Dhabi-based MGX state fund. There were even rumors Mistral could be acquired by
Apple.
Apple’s acquisition of Mistral would have been “quite negative” for Europe’s
tech sovereignty aspirations, said Leevi Saari, EU policy fellow at the
U.S.-based AI Now Institute, which studies the social implications of AI. “The
French state has no appetite [for] letting this happen,” he added.
Getting financing from an Abu Dhabi-based fund, conversely, would have
reinforced the perception that Europe can provide the millions in venture
capital funding needed to start a company, but not the billions needed to scale
it.
With this week’s €1.7 billion funding round led by ASML, Europe’s tech
sovereignty proponents can breath a sigh of relief.
“European champions creating more European champions is the way to go forward
and it needs further backing from the EU,” said Dutch liberal European
Parliament lawmaker Bart Groothuis in a statement.
The deal is also what officials, experts and the industry want to see more of:
one where startups are backed by an established European corporation rather than
a venture capitalist.
“A European corporation finally investing massively in a European scale-up from
its industry, even [if] it [is] not directly tied to its core business,” said
Agata Hidalgo, public affairs lead at French startup group France Digitale,
on Linkedin.
A French government adviser, granted anonymity to speak freely on private deals,
said they felt “hyped” by the news after months of uncertainty due to Mistral’s
refusal to publicly deny talks with Apple.
The deal is also expected to avoid any close scrutiny from Europe’s powerful
antitrust regulators, which in the past have intervened in mergers and deals to
keep the market competitive. Tuesday’s deal is not a full takeover and does not
need merger clearance.
Nicolas Petit, a competition law professor at the European University Institute,
said there was “nothing to see here unless the EU wants to shoot itself in the
foot with a bazooka.”
“It’s a non-controlling investment, and neither ASML [nor] Mistral AI compete in
any product or service market,” he added.
REALITY CHECK
While the incoming Dutch investment goes a long way toward keeping Mistral in
European hands, it also determines the path forward for the French artificial
intelligence challenger.
Mistral had already been struggling “to keep up with the race for market share”
with other large language models, Saari claimed in a blogpost published last
week, in which he cited numbers suggesting that Mistral’s market share is
“around 2 percent.”
“Mistral was known to face challenges both technically and in finding a business
model,” said Italian economist Cristina Caffarra, who has been leading the
charge for European tech sovereignty through the Eurostack movement. “It’s great
they found a European champion anchor investor” that will, in part, “protect
them from the [venture capital] model.”
Tuesday’s deal could mean that Mistral will get more support to work on
industrial applications instead of a consumer-facing chatbot that venture
capitalists like to propagate.
“With Mistral AI we have found a strategic partner who can not only deliver the
scientific AI models that will help us develop even better tools and solutions
for our customers, but also help us to improve our own operations over time,”
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet wrote in a post on Linkedin.
ASML’s main customers are the world’s biggest microchips manufacturers,
including Taiwan’s TSMC and America’s Intel. The company also has a wide network
of industrial suppliers, which could be leveraged as well.
For Mistral, catering to European industrial applications could strengthen its
business. But it could also be seen as a tacit admission that in the global AI
race, Europe has to pick its battles.
Francesca Micheletti and Océane Herrerro contributed reporting.
Iran’s cyber command ordered top officials and their security teams to avoid IT
equipment connected to telecom networks in a sign they fear digital disruption
from Israel.
The news was reported by the Fars news agency on Tuesday, which is affiliated
with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Israel and Iran have clashed militarily since Israel launched Operation Rising
Lion last Friday, targeting Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Explosions were
reported Tuesday in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, as Iranian state media claimed a new
wave of missiles had been launched toward Israel.
Lukasz Olejnik, a visiting senior research fellow of the Department of War
Studies at King’s College London, said the Iranian decision to avoid connected
kit signals “deep concern” that ordinary devices can be hacked and tampered
with. “It suggests Tehran fears adversaries can use connected devices to track,
intercept, or even target key officials,” he said.
Israel has used connected devices to kill individuals in the past. Last
September, it used explosive pagers to hit Hezbollah targets, injuring nearly
3,000 people — a sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack in which
Israeli security services hit the Lebanon-based terrorist group by
simultaneously triggering minute quantities of explosive hidden in thousands of
modified hand-held devices distributed among Hezbollah operatives.
“Israel is definitely a cyber superpower,” said Matt Pearl, former director for
emerging technologies at the National Security Council during the Biden
administration. “I would put it, in many ways, in the category of the U.S. or
[China], although smaller, just in terms of its overall capabilities.”
Both Iran and Israel are powerful cybersecurity actors. Experts said that cyber
disruption and espionage operations are often conducted in the background of
direct military clashes.
Tel Aviv has a skilled cyber talent pool and close-knit relations between the
government and the private sector. It is also considered to have stronger cyber
capabilities and advanced technology, enabiling more sophisticated digital
attacks.
While Iran is considered a major rival power to Western countries — alongside
China, North Korea and Russia — its cyber operations are primarily focused on
espionage rather than disruption.
Iran’s nuclear program has also been the target of one of the most infamous
cyberoffensive operations in history: The U.S. and Israel were reportedly behind
the Stuxnet malware attack that significantly damaged the country’s nuclear
efforts in 2010.
Sam Clark contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — European Union auditors on Monday warned that the bloc is dangerously
reliant on China for mainstream microchips powering everything from cars to
washing machines.
In a report published on Monday, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said one
in three low-tech chips comes from China. It warned the EU is “nowhere close” to
meeting its own goal of making up 20 percent of the global value chain for
microchips by 2030, a target set in its 2023 European Chips Act that intended to
make the bloc less reliant on foreign regions.
The report is yet another sign that the EU is struggling to reduce some of its
most glaring dependencies on foreign technology for critical and essential
services, despite attempts by Brussels to make the bloc more “technologically
sovereign.”
Europe has some leading companies in the field of less advanced microchips,
including Germany’s Infineon, the Dutch NXP and French-Italian
STMicroelectronics. These firms cater to the needs of Europe’s powerful car
industry.
But the auditors wrote that demand in Europe “is currently growing more quickly
than EU-based chipmakers can supply it.” In 2024, the EU ran a €9.8 billion
deficit with China on chips; it also had deficits with other chipmaking hubs
like Taiwan.
Globally, Taiwan has emerged as the leading hub for more advanced chips, which
have smaller nodes than low-tech varieties and are used in smartphones and data
centers. But demand remains high for low-tech chips as well, including to power
the transition to more sustainable, less energy-consuming technologies.
The auditors warned that the gap Europe has with other regions will only widen.
“As this type of microchip is needed for technology associated with the green
transition, this trade deficit is likely to increase in the future.”
As the EU’s independent auditor, the Court of Auditors reviews the EU’s
finances, its spending and the implementation of its policies.
The auditors’ message arrives as Brussels gets ready to review its Chips Act,
which formulated the goal of 20 percent by 2030. The auditors dismissed that
goal as “aspirational” and not grounded in reality.
Last July, the Commission acknowledged the goal was far from attainable,
projecting that the EU would hit 11.7 percent in 2030 rather than 20 percent.
The EU executive has been investigating the bloc’s reliance on China for
low-tech chips.
Last year it surveyed microchip suppliers and their customers about the
older-generation technology used in cars, household appliances and medical
devices over fears that China-subsidized firms were undermining them.
That move was coordinated with Washington under then-President Joe Biden, which
ran a similar survey.
Annemie Turtelboom, a member of the Court of Auditors, said geopolitical
tensions between the U.S. and the EU have made the issue of reducing
dependencies even more pressing than a year ago.
“We already know about the risks that come with importing from countries [with
which] we have an uncertain relationship. But maybe we cannot even rely on our
traditional allies for the supplies of chips,” she said.
European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said in a response that the
Chips Act was “a strong foundation” after two decades in which Europe’s share
had declined, and that it had “put Europe back on a path of growth.”
BRUSSELS — Europe’s struggle to develop and produce the world’s cutting-edge
technologies is “the single biggest long-term challenge” to the Continent’s
security, according to veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger.
A former German ambassador to the United States, Ischinger is the godfather of
the annual Munich Security Conference — also known as “Davos with guns” — which
brings together heads of state, military chiefs, top diplomats and executives
from the defense and tech industries.
In an interview with POLITICO in Brussels this week, Ischinger said that “we’re
definitely not in good shape” when it comes to keeping up with defense and
security technology.
“This, I think, is probably the single biggest long-term challenge for the
European Union: the technological gap,” he said, adding that “we need to put
that at the top of the agenda,” alongside the wars in Ukraine and the Middle
East.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has put the issue at the top
of her next mandate, bundling the portfolios of “tech sovereignty,” security and
defense and putting them in the hands of one of her right-hand officials, Henna
Virkkunen. Virkkunen, Finland’s nominee for Commission executive vice president,
faces a European Parliament hearing on Nov. 12 to defend her plans.
Von der Leyen’s choice to bundle tech and security is telling, amid the war in
Ukraine, waves of hybrid and cybersecurity threats to digital infrastructure,
and global tech supply chains that are being weaponized by the U.S. and China.
The message: Technology can help serve the bloc’s security and defense goals.
But Ischinger fears the EU’s plans will fall short: “My optimism is somewhat
limited, because I don’t think that government institutions, whether they’re at
the national level or at the EU level, can actually do it.”
What’s holding Europe back is the fragmentation of its capital market, the
former ambassador said, echoing the analysis of former Italian Prime Minister
Mario Draghi in his recent landmark report on Europe’s ability to compete in the
world.
“The completion of the Capital Markets Union is probably the single, most
essential precondition for getting this right,” Ischinger said.
Europe’s defense tech sector has voiced similar concerns. The co-founder of
Germany’s military AI champion Helsing, Gundbert Scherf, earlier this month told
POLITICO that European countries have to revise and ramp up their investments in
military tech specifically.
TECHNO-MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
In the past, military researchers pioneered tech ranging from jet engines to
duct tape and the internet, all of which later found civilian uses. Now the
process has come full circle: Generals are shopping for civilian-developed tech.
That shift has been front and center at the Munich Security Conference in recent
years. Increasingly, the conference has looked at the tech sector to fix
security issues — both in cyberspace and on the battlefield — through
innovations like artificial intelligence.
The Munich gathering has drawn top tech executives like Facebook’s Mark
Zuckerberg in recent years. | Johannes Simon/Getty Images
The Munich gathering has drawn top tech executives like Facebook’s Mark
Zuckerberg and Microsoft’s Brad Smith in recent years and served as a platform
for firms like Microsoft, Google and others to make their case for how
technology can help provide security and beef up militaries.
Last year Big Tech giants used it as the platform to launch an industry pledge,
first reported by POLITICO, to protect elections against AI-driven disruption.
POLITICO first reported in September that Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian
prime minister and until recently secretary-general of the NATO defense
alliance, was taking on the role of chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
Ischinger said he personally knocked on the door of Stoltenberg’s home in
Brussels, when the Norwegian was wrapping up his NATO post.
“I was just simply trying to find out whether he could see himself being
involved” in any way — not necessarily as chairman, Ischinger said. “Within 10
minutes of an initial discussion, I found out that he was enthusiastic about
it.”
Stoltenberg will lead the conference and will start his mandate shortly after
the next edition, in February 2025, is over. Ischinger handed over the
chairmanship of the conference to Christoph Heusgen in 2021 but remained a
driving force as president of the Foundation Council of the Munich Security
Conference Foundation.
Antoaneta Roussi and Pieter Haeck contributed reporting.
Benton Coblentz is a member of the Truman National Security Project and an MPA
candidate at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.
Voters in Moldova are heading to the polls Sunday to vote in a referendum on
whether the country should enshrine its EU aspirations in the constitution.
Current polls indicate a fragile majority in favor of the change, but various
challenges — including Russian misinformation and the economic repercussions of
the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — mean the results are far from certain.
So, might voters in Moldova surprise observers in their EU referendum, just as
British voters did in 2016?
In an echo of Brexit, surveys have found that just over 50 percent of Moldovan
voters are in favor of the pro-EU position. In a recent poll from the
International Republican Institute, 53 percent of respondents were in favor of
the change, while a poll by the Moldovan NGO Watchdog.MD found a similar 52
percent share in favor. And as election day has approached, polling indicators
point to a growing majority — as well as a small minority planning to abstain.
But the uncertainty remains.
Meanwhile, as Moldova’s voters consider their options for the country’s
long-term geopolitical future, they’ll also be rendering their judgment on
incumbent President Maia Sandu’s bid for reelection.
The timing of all this is seemingly no coincidence. Sandu is currently leading
the presidential race, polling at around 35 percent of the vote. And Moldova’s
pro-European leadership likely hopes the two elections will be mutually
reinforcing, with voters motivated to vote for the EU helping deliver a majority
for Sandu — and vice-versa.
However, this presumed positive correlation is far from guaranteed. Popular
discontent has been fueled by the economic headwinds brought on by the war in
Ukraine, leading to disruptions in Moldova’s supply chain and contributing to
inflation — which, at certain points throughout 2023, reached over 30 percent.
And given the perceived certainty of Sandu’s reelection, voters may well see a
“no” vote in the referendum to be a safe way of expressing their dissatisfaction
with her administration.
The opposition is well-positioned to capitalize on this discontent as well.
Despite talk of a unified opposition candidate earlier in the year, more than a
dozen candidates have now declared their intent to run. And the multiplicity is
allowing these candidates to tailor their anti-EU and anti-Sandu messages in
ways that will appeal to the country’s different voting blocs. For example,
while some are calling for a “no” vote in the referendum, others are encouraging
abstention, hoping the referendum will fail to achieve the constitutionally
required 33 percent turnout.
Moreover, these opposition efforts are all spearheaded with tacit support from
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government. Not only does Moscow have the
power to exert influence through its hold on breakaway region Transnistria’s
leadership, but it openly supports the opposition within Moldova itself. Just
this month, Moldova’s National Police accused Russia of backing an attempt to
bribe 130,000 voters — although the alleged orchestrator of the operation,
convicted Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, has denied the allegations.
Russia-fed misinformation has been stoking fears about Sandu’s potential
reelection as well, claiming she’s preparing to drag the country to war with
Transnistria, which is politically backed by Moscow. These misinformation
efforts have also focused on tarnishing the EU’s reputation, claiming that
membership will spread LGBTQ+ propaganda and lead to family separations.
Despite Russia’s outside support for the opposition, however, Moldova’s
pro-European forces are laying the groundwork for a successful close to their
campaign. Sandu has actively promoted EU integration, holding large rallies in
Chișinău and launching her reelection bid with a focus on EU aspirations.
The country’s civil society has been active too. For example, one campaign by
the Institute for Politics and European Reform aired poignant ads in favor of
the EU during the Euro football championships, presenting a screen split to
compare visions of a life of peace and of war, calling to celebrate the “79
years of peace and respect for life” that European integration brought the
Continent.
The EU itself has also done a good job promoting the efficacy of a strong
relationship with Brussels. After being granted candidate status in 2022 and
officially beginning negotiations in December 2023, Moldova hit major milestones
in its accession process. It hosted the 2023 European Political Community
Summit, attended by 45 European heads of state and government. And signs of
EU-funded public works projects are now visible throughout the country,
reinforcing the tangible benefits of EU association.
However, even if all these efforts fall short, the format of the question posed
to voters might help Moldova avoid the U.K.’s fate. In Britain, voters were
faced with a broad question about leaving or remaining in the EU, whereas
Moldovan voters will be specifically asked about including EU aspirations in
their constitution.
Thus, while a failure in the referendum might challenge the government’s
perceived legitimacy, it wouldn’t necessarily preclude Moldova from a European
future. It would, however, make the 2025 parliamentary elections — where Sandu’s
party currently faces bleak prospects — all the more important.
Overall, Moldova’s pro-European forces have successfully laid the groundwork for
a positive result in this year’s referendum — but they can’t afford to be overly
complacent at the eleventh hour. And Sunday’s results will show whether
Moldovans’ efforts to avoid their “Brexit moment” will succeed.