BRUSSELS — The European Commission on Wednesday unveiled a €90 billion loan to Ukraine aimed at saving it from financial collapse as it continues to battle Russia while aid from the U.S. dries up. About one-third of the cash will be used for normal budget expenditures and the rest will go to defense — although countries still need to formally agree to what extent Ukraine can use the money to buy weapons from outside the EU. A Commission proposal gives EU defense firms preferential treatment but allows Ukraine to buy foreign weapons if they aren’t immediately available in Europe. While the loan is interest-free for Ukraine, it is forecast to cost EU taxpayers between €3 billion and €4 billion a year in borrowing costs from 2028. The EU had to resort to the loan after an earlier effort to use sanctioned Russian frozen assets ran into opposition from Belgium. The race is now on for EU lawmakers to agree on a final legal text that’ll pave the way for disbursements in April, when Ukraine’s war chest runs out. Meetings between EU treasury and defense officials are already planned for Friday. The European Parliament could fast-track the loan as early as next week. The financing package is also crucial for unlocking additional loans to Ukraine from the International Monetary Fund. The Washington-based Fund wants to ensure Kyiv’s finances aren’t overstretched, as the war enters its fifth year next month. The €90 billion will be paid out over the next two years, as Moscow shows no sign of slowing down its offensive on Ukraine despite U.S.-led efforts to agree on a ceasefire. “Russia shows no sign of abating, no sign of remorse, no sign of seeking peace,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after presenting the proposal. “We all want peace for Ukraine, and for that, Ukraine must be in a position of strength.” When EU leaders agreed on the loan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the deal an “unprecedented decision, and it will also have an impact on the peace negotiations.” Adding to the pressure on the EU, the U.S. under President Donald Trump has halted new military and financial aid to Ukraine, leaving it up to Europe to ensure Kyiv can continue fighting. Once the legal text is agreed, the EU will raise joint debt to finance the initiative, although the governments in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia said they will not participate in the funding drive.  The conditions on military spending are splitting EU countries. Paris is demanding strict rules to prevent money from flowing to U.S. weapons manufacturers, while Germany and other Northern European countries want to give Ukraine greater flexibility on how to spend the cash, pointing out that some key systems needed by Ukraine aren’t manufactured in Europe. MEETING HALFWAY The Commission has put forward a compromise proposal — seen by POLITICO. It gives preferential treatment to defense companies based in the EU, Ukraine and neighboring countries, including Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, but doesn’t rule out purchases from abroad. To keep the Northern European capitals happy, the Commission’s proposal allows Ukraine to buy specialized weapons produced outside the EU if they are vital for Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. These include the U.S. Patriot long-range missile and air defense systems. The rules could be bent further in cases “where there is an urgent need for a given defense product” that can’t be delivered quickly from within Europe. Weapons aren’t considered European if more than 35 percent of their parts come from outside the continent, according to the draft. That’s in line with previous EU defense-financing initiatives, such as the €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons program. Two other legal texts are included in the legislative package. One proposes using the upper borrowing limit in the current budget to guarantee the loan. The other is designed to tweak the Ukraine Facility, a 2023 initiative that governs the bloc’s long-term financial support to Kyiv. The Commission will also create a new money pot to cover the borrowing costs before the new EU budget enters into force in 2028. RUSSIAN COLLATERAL Ukraine only has to repay the €90 billion loan if it receives post-war reparations from Russia — an unlikely scenario. If this doesn’t happen, the EU has left the door open to tapping frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to pay itself back. Belgium’s steadfast opposition to leveraging the frozen assets, most of which are based in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, promises to make that negotiation difficult. However, the Commission can indefinitely roll over its debt by issuing eurobonds until it finds the necessary means to pay off the loan. The goal is to ensure Ukraine isn’t left holding the bill. “The Union reserves its right to use the cash balances from immobilized Russian assets held in the EU to repay the Ukraine Support Loan,” Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said alongside von der Leyen. “Supporting Ukraine is a litmus test for Europe. The outcome of Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine will determine Europe’s future.” Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report from Brussels.

ROME — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday called on Europe to appoint a special envoy to talk to Russia, as efforts continue to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Meloni said that she agreed with French President Emmanuel Macron, who last month called for new dialogue with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin “expressed readiness to engage in dialogue” with Macron, Moscow said in response. “I believe the time has come for Europe to also speak with Russia,” Meloni told a press conference in Rome on Friday. “If Europe speaks to only one of the two sides on the field, I fear that the contribution it can make will be limited.” Meloni warned that Europe needs a coordinated approach or “risks doing Putin a favor.” Since the beginning of negotiations over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, “many voices have been speaking out, and that’s why I’ve always been in favor of appointing a European special envoy on the Ukrainian issue,” Meloni said. Peace talks aimed at ending the all-out conflict, which Russia launched in February 2022, have accelerated with U.S. President Donald Trump back in the White House, but Moscow has not indicated that it is willing to make concessions. The U.S. in November proposed that Russia be readmitted to the Group of Seven leading nations. But Meloni said it was “absolutely premature” to talk about welcoming Russia back to the G7 fold. Meloni also emphasized that Italy would not join France and the U.K. in sending troops to Ukraine to guarantee a potential peace deal, because it was “not necessary” if Ukraine signed a collective defense agreement with Western allies modeled on NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense provision. She suggested that a small contingent of foreign troops would not be a serious deterrent against a much larger Russian force. Reacting to Trump’s recent aggressive rhetoric toward Greenland, Meloni said that she “would not approve” of a U.S. military takeover of the vast Arctic island. “I don’t believe that the USA will carry out military action on Greenland, which I would not approve of and would not do anyone any good,” she told reporters. Meloni said she believed the Trump administration was using “very assertive methods” to draw attention to the strategic importance of Greenland for U.S. interests and security. “It’s an area where many foreign actors are carrying out activity and I think that the message of the USA is that they will not accept excessive interference by foreign actors,” she said.   Meloni also countered Trump’s remarks Thursday that he does not need international law, stressing that “international law must be defended.” But she added that it was normal to disagree with allies, “as national interests are not perfectly aligned.” “When I don’t agree with Trump, I say so — I say it to him.”

Less than 24 hours before EU leaders descend on Brussels for vital talks on financing Ukraine’s war effort, Belgium believes negotiations are going in reverse. “We are going backward,” Belgium’s EU ambassador, Peter Moors, told his peers on Wednesday during closed-door talks, according to two diplomats present at the meeting. The European Commission and EU officials are in a race against time to appease Belgian concerns over a €210 billion financing package for Ukraine that leverages frozen Russian state assets across the bloc. Belgium’s support is crucial, as the lion’s share of frozen assets lies in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. Bart De Wever, the country’s prime minister, refuses to get on board until the other EU governments provide substantial financial and legal safeguards that protect Euroclear and his government from Russian retaliation — at home and abroad. One of the most sensitive issues for Belgium is placing a lid on the financial guarantees that currently stand at €210 billion. Belgium believes that the guarantees provided by other EU countries should have no limits in order to protect them under any scenario. Talks looked to be going in the right direction. The Belgians backed a Commission pitch for EU capitals to cough up as much as possible in financial guarantees against the Ukrainian package — only for Belgium’s ambassador to drop a bombshell at the end of the meeting. “I just don’t know anymore,” one diplomat said, on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely. A spokesperson for the Belgian permanent representation declined to comment. Another key demand from Belgium is that all EU countries end their bilateral investment treaties with Russia to ensure Belgium isn’t left alone to deal with retaliation from Moscow. But to Belgium’s annoyance, several countries are reluctant to do so over fears of retribution from the Kremlin. Moors said during the meeting that any decision on the use of the assets will have to be taken by De Wever, according to an EU diplomat. Belgium is pushing the Commission to explore alternative options to finance Ukraine, such as issuing joint debt — a position that’s gained traction with Bulgaria, Italy, and Malta. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen cautiously opened the door to joint debt during a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday morning. “I proposed two different options for this upcoming European Council, one based on assets and one based on EU borrowing. And we will have to decide which way we want to take,” she said. But joint debt requires unanimous support, unlikely given Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s threats to veto further EU aid to Kyiv.  Moors proposed a possible workaround on Tuesday by suggesting triggering an emergency clause — known as Article 122 — that would nullify the veto threat. The Commission and Council’s lawyers rebuffed the Belgian pitch at the same meeting, saying it was not legally viable. The idea was first proposed by the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a dinner of finance ministers last week, but has been challenged by Northern European countries. De Wever is expected to suggest this option during the meeting of EU leaders on Thursday.

ATHENS — The country that almost got kicked out of the eurozone is now running the powerful EU body that rescued it from bankruptcy. Greece’s finance minister, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, on Thursday beat Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Vincent Van Peteghem in a two-horse race for the Eurogroup presidency. Although an informal forum for eurozone finance ministers, the post has proved pivotal in overcoming crises — notably the sovereign debt crisis, which resulted in three bailouts of the Greek government. That was 10 years ago, when Pierrakakis’ predecessor described the Eurogroup as a place fit only for psychopaths. Today, Athens presents itself as a poster child of fiscal prudence after dramatically reducing its debt pile to around 147 percent of its economic output — albeit still the highest tally in the eurozone. “My generation was shaped by an existential crisis that revealed the power of resilience, the cost of complacency, the necessity of reform, and the strategic importance of European solidarity,” Pierrakakis wrote in his motivational letter for the job. “Our story is not only national; it is deeply European.” Few diplomats initially expected the 42-year-old computer scientist and political economist to win the race to lead the Eurogroup after incumbent Paschal Donohoe’s shock resignation last month. Belgium’s Van Peteghem could boast more experience and held a great deal of respect within the eurozone, setting him up as the early favorite to win. But Belgium’s continued reluctance to back the European Commission’s bid to use the cash value of frozen Russian assets to finance a €165 billion reparations loan to Ukraine ultimately contributed to Van Peteghem’s defeat. NOT TYPICAL Pierrakakis isn’t a typical member of the center-right ruling New Democracy party, which belongs to the European People’s Party. His political background is a socialist one, having served as an advisor to the centre-left PASOK party from 2009, when Greece plunged into financial crisis. He was even one of the Greek technocrats negotiating with the country’s creditors. The Harvard and MIT graduate joined New Democracy to support Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ bid for the party leadership in 2015, because he felt that they shared a political vision. Pierrakakis got his big political break when New Democracy won the national election in 2019, after four years of serving as a director of the research and policy institute diaNEOsis. He was named minister of digital governance, overseeing Greece’s efforts to modernize the country’s creaking bureaucracy, adopting digital solutions for everything from Cabinet meetings to medical prescriptions. Those efforts made him one of the most popular ministers in the Greek cabinet — so much so that Pierrakakis is often touted as Mitsotakis’ likely successor for the party leadership in the Greek press. Few diplomats initially expected the 42-year-old computer scientist and political economist to win the race to lead the Eurogroup after incumbent Paschal Donohoe’s shock resignation last month. | Nicolas Economou/Getty Images After the re-election of New Democracy in 2023, Pierrakakis took over the Education Ministry, where he backed controversial legislation that paved the way for the establishment of private universities in Greece. A Cabinet reshuffle in March placed him within the finance ministry, where he has sped up plans to pay down Greece’s debt to creditors and pledged to bring the country’s debt below 120 percent of GDP before 2030.

BRUSSELS — Belgium is demanding that the EU provide an extra cash buffer to ensure against Kremlin threats over a €210 billion loan to Ukraine using Russian assets, according to documents obtained by POLITICO. The cash buffer is part of a series of changes that the Belgian government wants to make to the European Commission’s proposal, which would be financed by leveraging €185 billion of frozen Russian state assets held by the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. The remaining €25 billion would come from other frozen Russian assets, lying in private bank accounts across the bloc — predominantly in France. Belgium’s fresh demand is designed to give Euroclear more financial firepower to withstand Russian retaliation. This cash buffer would come on top of financial guarantees that EU countries would provide against the €210 billion loan to protect Belgium from paying back the full amount if the Kremlin claws back the money. In its list of amendments to the Commission, Belgium even suggested increasing the guarantees to cover potential legal disputes and settlements — an idea that is opposed by many governments. Belgium’s demands come as EU leaders prepare to descend on Brussels on Dec. 18 to try and secure Ukraine’s ability to finance its defences against Russia. As things stand, Kyiv’s war chest will run bare in April. Failure to use the Russian assets to finance the loan would force EU capitals to reach into their own pockets to keep Ukraine afloat. But frugal countries are politically opposed to shifting the burden to EU taxpayers. Belgium is the main holdout over financing Ukraine using the Russian assets, amid fears that it will be on the hook to repay the full amount if Moscow manages to claw its money back. The bulk of this revenue is currently being funneled to Ukraine to pay down a €45 billion loan from G7 countries, with Euroclear retaining a 10 percent buffer to cover legal risks. | Artur Widak/Getty Images In its list of suggested changes, Belgium asked the EU to set aside an unspecified amount of money to protect Euroclear from the risk of Russian retaliation. It said that the safety net will account for “increased costs which Euroclear might suffer (e.g. legal costs to defend against retaliation)” and compensate for lost revenue. According to the document, the extra cash buffer should be financed by the windfall profits that Euroclear collects in interest from a deposit account at the European Central Bank, where the Kremlin-sanctioned money is currently sitting. The proceeds amounted to €4 billion last year. The bulk of this revenue is currently being funneled to Ukraine to pay down a €45 billion loan from G7 countries, with Euroclear retaining a 10 percent buffer to cover legal risks. In order to better protect Euroclear, Belgium wants to raise this threshold over the coming years.

BRUSSELS — France and Italy can breathe a sigh of relief after the EU’s statistics office signaled that the financial guarantees needed to back a €210 billion financing package to Ukraine won’t increase their heavy debt burdens. Eurostat on Tuesday evening sent a letter, obtained by POLITICO, informing the bloc’s treasuries that the financial guarantees underpinning the loan, backed by frozen Russian state assets on Belgian soil, would be considered “contingent liabilities.” In other words, the guarantees would only impact countries’ debt piles if triggered. Paris and Rome wanted Eurostat to clarify how the guarantees would be treated under EU rules for public spending, as both countries carry a debt burden above 100 percent of their respective economic output. Eurostat’s letter is expected to allay fears that signing up to the loan would undermine investor confidence in highly indebted countries and potentially raise their borrowing costs. That’s key for the Italians and French, as EU leaders prepare to discuss the initiative at a summit next week. Failure to secure a deal could leave Ukraine without enough funds to keep Russian forces at bay next year. The Commission has suggested all EU countries share the risk by providing financial guarantees against the loan in case the Kremlin manages to claw back its sanctioned cash, which is held in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. “None of the conditions” that would lead to EU liability being transferred to member states “would be met,” Eurostat wrote in a letter, adding that the chances of EU countries ever paying those guarantees are weak. The Commission instead will be held liable for those guarantees, the agency added. Germany is set to bear the brunt of the loan, guaranteeing some €52 billion under the Commission’s draft rules. This figure will likely rise as Hungary has already refused to take part in the funding drive for Ukraine. The letter is unlikely to change Belgium’s stance, as it wants much higher guarantees and greater legal safeguards against Russian retaliation at home and abroad. The biggest risk facing the Commission’s proposal is the prospect of the assets being unfrozen if pro-Russia countries refuse to keep existing sanctions in place. Under current rules, the EU must unanimously reauthorize the sanctions every six months. That means Kremlin-friendly countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, can force the EU to release the sanctioned money with a simple no vote. To make this scenario more unlikely, the Commission suggested a controversial legal fix that will be discussed today by EU ambassadors. Eurostat described the possibility of EU countries paying out for the loan as “a complex event with no obvious probability assessment at the time of inception.”

EU countries will need to individually commit billions of euros to guarantee as much as €210 billion in urgently needed loans to Ukraine, with Germany set to backstop up to €52 billion, according to documents obtained by POLITICO. The European Commission presented the eye-watering totals to diplomats last week after unveiling a €165 billion reparations loan to Ukraine using the cash value of frozen Russian assets. The backstops, which would be divided up proportionally among countries across the bloc, are needed to secure a go-ahead on the loan from Prime Minister Bart De Wever. The Belgian leader has opposed the use of sovereign Russian assets over concerns that his country alone may eventually be required to pay the money back to Moscow. Some €185 billion in frozen Russian assets are under the stewardship of the Brussels-based financial depository, Euroclear, while another €25 billion is scattered across the bloc in private bank accounts. The per-country totals may go up, however, if Kremlin-friendly countries such as Hungary refuse to join the initiative — though non-EU countries may help, if they choose, by covering some of the overall guarantee. Norway had been mooted as a possible candidate until its finance minister, Jens Stoltenberg, distanced Oslo from the idea. Ukraine faces a budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year and will have to start cutting public spending from April unless fresh money arrives. Hungary on Friday vetoed issuing new EU debt to plug Kyiv’s budget gap, putting the onus on leaders to convince De Wever to support using Russian assets when EU leaders meet on Dec. 18, rather than dipping into their own national coffers. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was in Brussels on Friday evening to reassure De Wever that Germany would provide 25 percent of the backstop, the largest share of any country. “We had a very constructive exchange on this issue,” Merz said after dining with the Belgian leader. “Belgium’s particular concern about the question of how to make use of frozen Russian assets is undeniable and must be addressed in any conceivable solution in such a way that all European states bear the same risk.” CHECKS AND BALANCES The proposed reparations loan earmarks €115 billion to finance Ukraine’s defense industry over five years, while €50 billion would cover Kyiv’s budgetary needs. The remaining €45 billion from the overall package would repay a G7 loan to Ukraine, issued last year. The funds would be disbursed in six payments over the year, according to the Commission’s slideshows. Certain checks and balances would be in place to prevent crooks from pocketing the money. In terms of defense spending, for example, this would include ensuring that the contracts and the spending plans are acceptable to the Commission. The Commission would also detail Ukraine’s financing needs and outline where the government receives military and financial aid, allowing EU capitals to track the money streaming to Kyiv.

BRUSSELS — Hungary formally ruled out issuing eurobonds to support Ukraine on Friday, a move that robs the EU of a potential Plan B should it fail to find a way to use frozen Russian state assets to finance a €165 billion loan to Kyiv. The European Commission wants the 27 EU member countries to agree at a summit later this month to support Kyiv’s faltering economy with a loan based on immobilized Russian central bank reserves. Belgium is pushing back hard as it holds the lion’s share of that frozen cash and fears it would be on the hook if the Kremlin sues. Eurobonds would have provided an alternative funding stream to Ukraine, but Budapest rejected the idea of issuing joint debt backed by the EU’s seven-year budget, two diplomats at a meeting of ambassadors told POLITICO. Hungary’s rejection came hours before a dinner between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever in Brussels to discuss the loan. Merz said he was planning to use the event to bring De Wever on board. “I take the concerns and objections of the Belgian prime minister very seriously,” Merz told reporters on Thursday night. “I don’t want to persuade him, I want to convince him that the path we  are proposing here is the right one.” Germany is offering a backstop on 25 percent of the funds to convince Belgium to send the frozen billions to Ukraine, but De Wever wants a broader guarantee from the whole EU that Belgium will be insured for the full amount, or more. The Commission proposed eurobonds on Wednesday as one of two options, along with the Russian asset-backed loan, to ensure that Ukraine’s war chest doesn’t run bare as soon as next April. Raising debt through the EU budget to prop up Ukraine requires a unanimous vote, however. Hungary’s rejection now raises the stakes for what are expected to be intense negotiations on the loan before EU leaders gather in Brussels on Dec. 18. Officials did not expect an immediate breakthrough given De Wever’s strong opposition. The Commission has repeatedly downplayed the financial and legal risks associated with the reparation loan and insists its proposal addresses most of Belgium’s concerns. The proposed reparations loan earmarks €115 billion to finance Ukraine’s defense industry over five years, while €50 billion would go to cover Kyiv’s budgetary needs. James Angelos contributed reporting from Berlin.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will arrive Friday in Brussels in a bid to convince Belgium’s leadership to back a €165 billion reparations loan to Ukraine using the cash value of frozen Russian state assets held on Belgian soil. “Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Belgium tomorrow evening for a dinner meeting to speak privately with Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,” a German government spokesperson told POLITICO. Merz scrapped his travel plans to Oslo to make the trip to the EU capital after the Commission proposed a financial package to fund Ukraine’s defense against Russian forces. Time is of the essence, as Kyiv’s war chest is expected to run bare in April. De Wever continues to oppose the initiative, as the lion’s share of the assets is under the stewardship of Brussels-based financial depository, Euroclear. He fears that Russia will retaliate against Belgium at home and abroad, and is demanding ironclad financial guarantees from EU capitals before he even considers backing the Commission’s proposal. EU leaders are scheduled to discuss the initiative in Brussels on Dec. 18. Failure to reach a deal could force EU governments to use taxpayers’ money to ensure Ukraine’s survival.

BRUSSELS — The European Commission is adamant it has done what’s needed to address Belgium’s concerns about a financial package worth up to €210 billion to fund Ukraine’s defense against Moscow. The EU executive unveiled the package on Wednesday, first reported by POLITICO, which leverages the cash value of frozen Russian state assets across the bloc — with the lion’s share sitting in Belgium. The Belgian government fears the move would provoke Russian retaliation but, without support, Ukraine’s war chest is expected to run bare in April. Diplomats are now in a race against time to scrutinize the proposal before EU leaders gather in Brussels on Dec. 18 to decide on whether to proceed with the initiative or meet Ukraine’s financing needs with their own taxpayers’ money. The main stumbling block remains the Belgian government’s opposition to the loan. “I’m not impressed yet, let me put it that way,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said in televised remarks before the proposal was unveiled on Wednesday afternoon. “We are not going to put risks involving hundreds of billions … on Belgian shoulders. Not today, not tomorrow, never.” Belgium fears Russian retaliation against the state and the financial depository holding the frozen assets, Euroclear. The government is demanding that other EU capitals pay up the full amount if Moscow successfully recovers the money. Responding to De Wever’s concerns, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters that “we have put in place mechanisms that protect all our member states and this, of course, includes specifically also Belgium.” She added that the legal proposal addresses Belgium’s main conditions for supporting the loan, which include more risk-sharing and tapping into assets held by other EU countries beyond Belgium. Here are the five top questions that De Wever will ask to determine whether the proposal stays within his red lines. WHAT DOES THE LOAN TO UKRAINE LOOK LIKE? Under the proposal, the EU will lend €165 billion to Ukraine, which it will only have to repay once Russia ends the war and pays reparations. The loan includes €25 billion of immobilized Russian state assets held in private bank accounts in France, Germany, Belgium, Sweden, and Cyprus, in addition to €140 billion held in the Brussels-based Euroclear bank. As part of the financial package, the Commission will set aside €45 billion to repay a G7 loan to Ukraine, which was agreed in 2024. This brings the total value of the package to €210 billion. If all else fails, the EU executive said that it can issue joint debt to Ukraine through its multi-year budget. The main drawback is that pursuing this option requires unanimity, an unlikely scenario given Hungary’s repeated threats to block further financing to Kyiv.  Within the reparations loan, €115 billion has been earmarked to finance Ukraine’s defense industry, while €50 billion will cover Kyiv’s budgetary needs. | Roman Pilipey/Getty Images HOW WILL THE MONEY BE SPENT? Within the reparations loan, €115 billion has been earmarked to finance Ukraine’s defense industry, while €50 billion will cover Kyiv’s budgetary needs. The loan reserved for military spending will be disbursed over five years in cash envelopes, known as tranches, under certain conditions to avoid corruption. The bulk of the money, €90 billion, would be available over the next two years. Money reserved for the country’s budgetary needs could last until the end of 2055. The proposal gives preference to military gear made in Europe or Ukraine, but also allows for buying equipment from foreign allies, such as the U.S., under certain conditions. WHAT SAFEGUARDS DOES BELGIUM HAVE? EU governments will provide bilateral financial guarantees of up to €105 billion until 2028 to ensure that Belgium is not alone in handling the risks associated with the initiative. The underlying principle is that EU capitals collectively stump up the full amount of the loan should the Kremlin successfully claw its money back, which the Commission sees as unlikely. Belgium is demanding that the guarantees exceed the total value of the EU loan and extend beyond the expiry of the Russian sanctions package — and will continue to push for this during the technical negotiations in Council. In further reassurance to Belgium, the Commission will set up a “liquidity mechanism” that can lend money to governments to ensure that the guarantees can be paid out at a moment’s notice. The EU’s next seven-year budget will take over from national guarantees from 2028, and shoulder the burden through its “headroom,” a financial cushion that ensures Brussels can meet its obligations. HOW WILL THE EU KEEP THE RUSSIAN ASSETS FROZEN? The biggest legal hurdle facing the proposal is the prospect of the assets being unfrozen if pro-Russia countries refuse to keep existing sanctions in place. Under current rules, the EU must unanimously reauthorize the sanctions every six months. That means Kremlin-friendly countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, can force the EU to release the sanctioned money with a simple no-vote. The Commission suggested a legal fix that would make this scenario less likely. It aims to trigger a clause in Article 122 of the EU treaty that could make it illegal to return the assets to the Kremlin. The clause is legally uncertain and hinges on the argument that reversing the sanctions would wreak havoc on Europe’s economy. The Commission is confident that it can trigger this legal clause by a qualified majority. The Belgian government fears the move would provoke Russian retaliation but, without support, Ukraine’s war chest is expected to run bare in April. | Nicolas Tucat/Getty Images DOES THIS AFFECT THE PEACE DEAL WITH RUSSIA? De Wever claimed last week that the Commission’s proposal would derail a peace deal in Ukraine by removing leverage that might encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. But von der Leyen played down the argument, saying that the reparations loan will instead ramp up the pressure on Russia. “It is a very clear message … to Russia that the prolongation of the war on their side comes with a high cost for them,” she said, adding that the proposal “will contribute positively to the peace negotiations.” For Ukraine, meanwhile, the scheme would strengthen its negotiating position, ensuring it was not entering peace talks while facing a cash crunch. “It is a leverage that makes it very clear that we are in for the long haul with Ukraine,” she said. Hanne Cokelaere contributed reporting from Brussels.