Former Romanian presidential candidate Călin Georgescu was indicted on Wednesday for endorsing fascist propaganda, according to a press release from a prosecution office attached to the High Court of Cassation and Justice. Prosecutors allege that between June 16, 2020 and May 16, 2025, Georgescu repeatedly endorsed fascist ideas through a series of interviews, online posts and public speeches. He is also accused of glorifying extremist historical figures such as Marshal Ion Antonescu — the leader of Romania’s World War II fascist government and a convicted war criminal — and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the founder of Romania’s interwar Iron Guard, a fascist paramilitary group. If convicted, Georgescu faces between three months and three years in prison, or possibly longer due to the continuous nature of the alleged offenses. The case, filed with the Sector 1 Court in Bucharest, addresses only the charge of “legionary propaganda” related to Romania’s National Legionary State, which ruled the country for five months from 1940 to 1941. But Georgescu remains under investigation for other serious offenses including allegedly attempting to overthrow the constitutional order. A hard-line ultranationalist and a vocal opponent of the EU and NATO, Georgescu surged to prominence during Romania’s November 2024 presidential election in which he won 22.9 percent of the vote in the first round. The country’s Constitutional Court later annulled the results, citing credible evidence of foreign interference — including alleged Russian-backed influence operations and a coordinated disinformation campaign on TikTok. The election was subsequently rescheduled for May but Georgescu was barred from running again and announced he was stepping away from politics.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan nominated Ilie Bolojan, a center-right National Liberal Party politician who served as acting president until Romania elected Dan to the role a month ago, for the prime ministerial post. His nomination on Friday comes after more than a month of political deadlock. Bolojan now has to form a government and receive approval from the parliament. All four pro-European parties in the parliament are expected to join the government, with the prime ministerial post possibly rotating to the Social Democratic Party in 2027. The center-right Union Save Romania and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania will also join the coalition.  Former Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned May 5 and his Social Democratic Party withdrew from the government after a presidential candidate backed by the mainstream coalition failed to qualify for the second round of the presidential election. Dan, who ran as a centrist independent, subsequently beat hard-right nationalist George Simion in a nail-biter vote to keep Romania on its pro-Brussels, pro-NATO path. Right-wing parties had previously surged in last December’s parliamentary election, forcing pro-Western parties to look past their disagreements and form a fragile government. After winning the presidency on May 18, Dan pledged to help four pro-European parties form a new governing coalition. He later held several rounds of talks with party leaders and helped broker their agreement. Dan’s victory and the establishment of a pro-Western government now appear to offer a path to political stability for Romania. The new government will have to tackle Romania’s crippling budget deficit, running at over 9 percent of gross domestic product in 2024. The European Commission recently reprimanded the country for breaking EU limits on government spending. Addressing the deficit may prove difficult, however. The governing parties and the president are leery of taking unpopular steps, such as hiking taxes. “I hope we will reach to the tax side as little as possible,” Dan said recently. Prime Minister-designate Bolojan, who is “known for his technocratic efficiency and willingness to make difficult decisions,” will need to manage a politically diverse coalition while also implementing unpopular fiscal measures, wrote analysts at The Smartlink, a Romanian strategy consultancy, putting his leadership to the test. “Bolojan is the most suitable person” to address the budget deficit, Dan said when nominating the prime minister. “He is a person who, through the positions he has held, has proven that he knows how to reduce and streamline spending … and will have a partner in me.” Bolojan said he will continue negotiations with the four parties to finalize the governing program. Carmen Paun contributed to this report.

Romanian election disruptor Călin Georgescu announced late Monday that he was stepping away from politics. “The elections for the position of president of Romania in 2025 have ended. Along with them, I have chosen to end my active involvement in the political process, considering that this phase of the sovereignist movement has ended,” Georgescu said in a video. Georgescu, who won the first round of the Romanian presidential election in November 2024 before it was annulled, said he wanted to dedicate more time to his family. “It is not a resignation, but a responsible choice,” he added. In the first round of the 2024 election, Georgescu surged from obscurity to snatch 22.9 percent of the vote. However, Romania’s Constitutional Court canceled the election, citing credible evidence of foreign interference in his favor. Georgescu, an ultranationalist, anti-EU and anti-NATO candidate, was reportedly boosted by Russian interference and a hybrid influence campaign on TikTok. He was barred from running again in the rescheduled May 2025 election, and faces criminal charges related to the suspected promotion of fascist ideologies. The election annulment and Georgescu’s subsequent ban from taking part in the rescheduled election stirred up right-wing outrage around the world, including from senior figures in Washington such as billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance. Expressing gratitude to his supporters, Georgescu emphasized he does not plan to join any political party or movement. “However, if I see that the rights of those who have chosen differently are violated, I will get involved again with a clear voice to defend the principles of democracy and freedom,” he said. In the May 2025 do-over election, moderate candidate Nicuşor Dan defeated Georgescu’s hard-right ally George Simion, winning with over 53 percent of the vote.

Romanian far-right leader George Simion announced Tuesday he will contest his defeat in last Sunday’s presidential election. Centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan won the second round of the vote, which was rerun after a first election last November was annulled over concerns about Russian interference. “We will contest the election at the Constitutional Court for the same reasons they annulled the elections in December,” Simion said. This story is being updated. Carmen Paun contributed reporting.

The European Union breathed a huge sigh of relief Sunday night as moderate Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan fended off a fierce hard-right challenge to win the Romanian presidential election. Mainstream European leaders rushed to congratulate Dan on his surprise win — while Simion’s right-wing acolytes bemoaned his defeat. “My warmest congratulations to Nicușor Dan on his victory tonight,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “The Romanian people have turned out massively to the polls. They have chosen the promise of an open, prosperous Romania in a strong Europe. Together let’s deliver on that promise. Looking forward to working with you.” Dan beat ultranationalist candidate George Simion to win the election, as the hard-right candidate cozied up to U.S. President Donald Trump, ripping pages from his MAGA agenda, while threatening to stop military support for Ukraine. “Congratulations Nicușor Dan! Long live free Romania,” exulted center-right Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose party candidate also won a narrow election victory Sunday night in Poland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also thrilled by the outcome, as Dan promises to keep Romania on its pro-EU, pro-NATO pathway. “For Ukraine — as a neighbour and friend — it is important to have Romania as a reliable partner. And we are confident we will. By working together, we can strengthen both our countries and our Europe,” Zelenskyy said. “I look forward to further developing the strategic partnership between our friendly nations for the sake of their stability, security, and prosperity,” Zelenskyy added. “Congratulations, dear Nicușor Dan, on being elected President of Romania! Moldova and Romania stand together, supporting one another and working side by side for a peaceful, democratic, and European future for all our citizens,” said Moldovan President Maia Sandu, whose country has been at loggerheads with the irredentist Simion for years. “From city hall to the table of the European Council. Sincere congratulations to Nicușor Dan for winning the Romanian Presidential elections. This is a strong signal of Romanians’ attachment to the European project. I look forward to working with you for a better Europe and a better Romania,” beamed European Council President António Costa. Not everyone was cheering Dan’s win, however. “Well Romania we had a good run. Thanks for the pleasant memories,” said Tristan Tate, brother of notorious manosphere influencer Andrew Tate. The brothers have lived in Romania for years and are under investigation for human trafficking.

Nicușor Dan, Bucharest’s centrist mayor who ran as an independent, is expected to become Romania’s new president, according to exit polls. The 55-year-old mathematician edged out hard-right election front-runner George Simion by 55 percent to 45 percent, exit polls suggested Sunday evening. Dan celebrated the polling result with a crowd of more than 2,000 people packed into the park and streets opposite his Bucharest City Hall mayoral office. When the results filtered through to the crowd, his supporters screamed and applauded and began chanting: “Nicușor! Nicușor!” The projections are not official results, which will start coming in from Romania’s election authority in the next few hours. Dan’s victory, if confirmed by official results, will calm fears in Brussels and other European capitals that Romania — a country of 19 million people that is a key EU and NATO member — would veer hard to the right. The election was closely watched in Washington, where Trump administration officials were supportive of the country’s potential right-wing turn. U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized Romanian authorities in February for canceling the first attempt at holding the presidential election last November. Romania’s top court decided to annul that election and order a rerun over allegations that the candidate who won the first round, ultranationalist Călin Georgescu, benefited from an illegal online campaign, with potential Russian support. Georgescu and the Russian government have denied the accusations. Still, Romania’s election authorities barred Georgescu from running again in this election.  Dan’s rival, Simion, won the first round of the presidential election against competition from 10 other candidates by aligning himself closely with Georgescu and condemning the election cancellation as illegal. Dan’s immediate challenge as president will be to secure a coalition of pro-European parties in the parliament and name a prime minister who will be tasked with implementing tough economic measures to rein in the country’s 9 percent budget deficit. This story is being updated.

BUCHAREST — On a cold Saturday morning last December, Călin Georgescu, the far-right ultranationalist standing to be president of Romania, gathered with a group of his closest aides at a horse ranch outside Bucharest. His campaign was in crisis.  A day earlier, the country’s top court had taken the unprecedented decision to cancel the election he had been well-placed to win. The move threw the country’s politics into turmoil and slammed Georgescu’s surging bid for the presidency into a wall.  The court’s decision followed the release of secret intelligence reports suggesting a foreign power — likely Russia — interfered to tilt the election in favor of Georgescu, a NATO-skeptic and Moscow sympathizer who had threatened to halt all aid to Ukraine.  The judges’ ruling had far-reaching consequences. In the months since, Georgescu’s popularity grew further amid claims of an establishment conspiracy. Now he is a poster boy for U.S. President Donald Trump’s MAGA acolytes, with both Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance citing Romania’s election fiasco as evidence of a deep sickness in European democracy.  Romania’s presidential election debacle has exposed a critical weakness in a country of strategic significance. At stake in the election is not only the governance of 19 million people but the future orientation of a key NATO member bordering Ukraine on the eastern edge of the European Union. Romania is home to a vital NATO base that’s set to become the alliance’s biggest in Europe over the next five years, at a fragile time for the West.  The details of what was discussed on that foggy Saturday morning at the Jbara equestrian center remain unclear. But one of the owners of the ranch told prosecutors the stakes for those present, along with their blood pressure, appeared to be sky-high.  “Everyone was stressed and worried,” the person told prosecutors. “I realized that their discussions might have something to do with the election annulment. This assumption was reinforced by their behavior. As I entered the room, they suddenly fell silent.” Investigators now see the rendezvous at the ranch as a key moment in what they believe was a plot to destabilize Romania in the aftermath of the election annulment with a Jan. 6-style insurrection. The suspect at the center of the alleged conspiracy was at Georgescu’s side that morning: a leader of a mercenary group, called Horațiu Potra.  Late the following day, Potra was arrested on his way toward Bucharest in a convoy of five cars filled with armed men. They were allegedly en route to the capital to incite a riot in protest at the court’s decision to cancel the vote, according to prosecutors.  On March 11, Romanian authorities took their final step of banning Georgescu from standing in the rerun of the election, which is taking place this weekend. But if polls are correct, most of Georgescu’s voters are now backing another hard-right candidate, George Simion, who has denounced what he called the “coup d’état” and has promised to give Georgescu a role — potentially even as prime minister.  Speaking to POLITICO, Simion — who is the frontrunner to win the presidency on Sunday — said he never met Potra. But he had rejected him as a potential candidate standing for his AUR party, he added. Simion brushed off the furor over the alleged insurrection attempt as “fireworks and smoke bombs and distraction.”  Raids on Potra’s properties allegedly uncovered an illicit arsenal of military-grade weapons and over €3 million in cash hidden in basements, walls, and floors of his properties. An international arrest warrant is out in his name, charging him with “attempting to commit actions against the constitutional order.” If polls are correct, most of Georgescu’s voters are now backing another hard-right candidate, George Simion. | Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images He has been abroad since he was charged, including in Dubai, and continued to conduct business in Africa. Georgescu is charged with “instigating actions against the constitutional order” and is banned from leaving Romania without permission from the courts. Both men have dismissed the allegations against them and their supporters regard the charges as politically motivated slurs designed to undermine Georgescu’s campaign. POLITICO asked Potra and his lawyers multiple times over the course of six weeks for their side of the story but despite repeated requests, they declined to engage. “Better to break the law and live than to obey the law and die,” Potra said in an interview with the Georgescu-friendly TV channel Realitatea Plus after he was indicted.  A POLITICO investigation uncovers the full extent of Potra’s empire and his influence over the pro-Georgescu campaign that plunged Romania into crisis. Drawing on business records, financial transactions, prosecutor files, land registries, and testimonies from insiders, this research reveals a portrait of a man who amassed both vast wealth and powerful connections through his mercenary activities. It raises crucial questions, too, over his links with Moscow.  ROYAL BODYGUARD Potra is a man who has been shaped by war.  Now 54, the Transylvania-born legionnaire honed his physique during a five-year stint in the French Foreign Legion before spending almost 30 years as a private security operative. His shaven head and stocky build now call to mind the figure of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late leader of Russia’s mercenary group Wagner.  A dual Romanian-French citizen, he once served as a personal bodyguard to Qatar’s royal family. But it was in Africa where he made his career. Initially, he pursued work in the private sector, providing security services for political leaders and business people. It was work that took him across the continent, including to the Central African Republic, Sudan’s Darfur, The Gambia, and Senegal. In his CV, Potra also described how he oversaw operations for the Romanian-Australian mining magnate, Frank Timiș in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Sierra Leone.  These contracts, and many others, have helped him amass millions of dollars, but also political influence, power, and, inevitably, detractors.  One person who knows Potra well had no good words to say about him. The person, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity in order to speak freely amid fears they would face reprisals if their identity was made public. This individual described Potra as someone who could not be trusted and cared only about himself. “He is a real Victor Lustig of Romania,” the same person said, referring to a notorious con artist best known for successfully scamming wealthy victims and famously selling the Eiffel Tower—twice—during the 1920s.  MADE IN AFRICA  When Romanian police detained Potra last December, among the machetes, axes and wads of dollars in his car, they also found a stack of Congolese francs. It was a souvenir from the previous two years Potra largely spent in the Democratic Republic of Congo. While he was there he commanded a 1,000-strong group of mercenaries, hired by the Congolese government to try to stop Rwanda-backed rebels taking the strategic city of Goma.  Recruits were paid between $5,000 and $6,000 per month for their work, according to the employment contracts seen by this investigation. There was no health insurance and few employee protections, but a lot of obligations on the part of those who signed up. Among them was Petru Samolinschi, a 23-year-old ex-soldier in the Romanian army. For him, 2023 was shaping up to be an eventful year. He had proposed to his girlfriend, quit his job in the army and joined Potra’s security company. His objective for signing up to work in DR Congo was clear: go to Goma, earn enough money for a home, and come back to start a life with his fiancee.  It wasn’t to be. In June 2024 while he was flying a drone into enemy territory, Samolinschi was killed in a missile strike. “It was a mistake that Petru was there,” his fiancee, Bianca Antoneac, told POLITICO, fighting back tears. “I don’t understand why they were sent there.” She recalled hearing stories from Samolinschi that made her doubt how good a deal Potra was offering the soldiers. Samolinschi told her that the operations were badly organized and that the mercenaries would sometimes “fire at each other.” Interviews with more than half a dozen of Potra’s contracted fighters confirm the impression of a disorganized operation in DR Congo. Among the motley crew of recruits, Potra hired his close friends, truck drivers and supermarket guards, as well as elite French foreign legion fighters or Romanian military and police personnel who took leave from their day jobs to sign up. The contractors who spoke to POLITICO for this article said this pattern put many of them in danger. Along with Samolinschi, three others also died.  “In the end, the company’s goal was profit,” said one contractor.  The city of Goma fell in late January this year and Potra’s mercenaries failed to hold the line. They were evacuated from the country in a humiliating transfer across the border into Rwanda and back to Romania on a chartered flight.  When they returned to Romania, Potra’s mercenaries were usually allowed in without any of the normally routine checks on their luggage, according to five of the contractors POLITICO spoke to. “There was a total lack of airport checks,” said one. “It was like we were traveling within Schengen.” The soldier told POLITICO they had personally seen Potra return to Romania carrying bags stuffed with dollars. Among the litany of allegations against Potra is one of money laundering and tax evasion, which investigators in Romania are probing in a separate case. Authorities accuse him of not paying taxes on more than＄7 million, money they say he earned from mercenary contracts in Africa.  Since securing his military contract in DRC in 2022, Potra has quietly amassed an impressive real estate portfolio. Some of his latest transactions include a $1.6 million villa in central Bucharest, neighboring the Ministry of Defense’s foreign military relations office, but also 44 hectares of forest in central Transylvania and several buildings in his hometown of Mediaş, according to land registry documents.  Potra organized his operations through a network of companies spanning several jurisdictions, from Malta, Sierra Leone, Panama, U.K, DRC and Romania, according to company and financial documents seen by POLITICO.  Financial records reveal a pattern of self-dealing. He purchased real estate and then signed promises of sale with his own companies, registered in Sierra Leone and Panama, effectively selling assets to himself. That is a move several experts POLITICO spoke to argue could be intended to obscure the origin of his income. THE RUSSIANS  Another mercenary, Victor Răilean went to Goma in DR Congo as part of Potra’s group because he was trying to buy a house to support his family, including his son who has autism. In February 2024, he was shot in the stomach by a sniper in an ambush and died of his injuries.  According to documents seen by POLITICO, Potra later donated ＄100,000 to Răilean’s family and to that of Samolinschi, but only after he mentioned his generosity in the media. His sister Victoria Gonț said she had to negotiate with Potra through lawyers to get the full amount he’d talked about in the press.  Răilean’s account sheds light on Potra’s links to another key part of Romania’s story. While Moscow has not officially been blamed for interfering in last year’s election to boost Georgescu’s campaign, the finger of suspicion pointed at Kremlin agents. Romanian authorities warned Russia was waging a “hybrid” attack on Romania to destabilize the country, as it had done in neighboring Moldova.  It was while working on a job protecting a Russian businessman during a casino deal in 2019 that Răilean met Potra for the first time.  Before he was killed in Africa, Răilean told his sister that he started receiving unusual work offers after that initial Russian job.  The proposals — which she said she assumed came from Potra, with whom her brother was working at the time — were to take part in destabilization efforts during pro-Russian protests in neighboring Moldova, and to conduct counterespionage for Russia in Ukraine. “[My brother] told me, do you realize that from Russia, through Romania, here in Moldova, they proposed this,” Gonț told POLITICO.  Potra has some links to Russia that have emerged in the public domain, though the extent of any potential connections to Putin’s regime is unknown.  Photos posted online by people from his inner circle appear to show Potra at the Russian and Chinese embassies in Bucharest. He once posted from Moscow’s Red Square, drawing a comment from one of his acolytes seemingly joking he was “the Wagner boss.”  Flight tickets from Dubai to Moscow as well as hotel bookings from September 2024, just before Romania’s annulled elections, point to Potra visiting Russia. Prosecutors wrote that they suspect these images hint at possible coordination or backing from “entities aligned with Russian interests.”  Potra’s connections to Russia don’t stop there. Prosecutors allege that Dorina Mihai, a woman with a close relationship to Georgescu’s bodyguard, Marin Burcea, has ties to Chechen fighters including warlord Ramzan Kadyrov. Photos on social media also show her posing with Chechen troops and praising Putin.  Burcea, Georgescu’s bodyguard, also fought as a mercenary in DR Congo under Potra and was present at that fateful horse ranch meeting with his boss in December. As long ago as 2023, Mihai told Burcea the upcoming elections were “our last chance.” According to text messages cited in the prosecution files, she wrote: “If the system doesn’t change, we’re finished … I believe God is waiting for us to fight […] We need to hit them hard.” Neither Mihai nor Burcea responded to requests for comment. GEORGESCU’S FINANCIER  While Georgescu was an obscure figure in Romania before he burst into the lead in the first round of the election last November, he had long been known to Potra.  Messages from Potra’s phone show that back in April 2022, Georgescu had asked him for help fundraising for his campaign, according to prosecutors’ documents. In particular, Georgescu wanted Potra to approach billionaire Frank Timiş for financial backing — seeking between $20 million-$35 million. In exchange, Potra assured Timiş that Georgescu would greenlight mining projects across Romania, especially gold mines. “I need support now, and then I’ll support as well,” Georgescu wrote to Potra. In the end, the approach to Timiş failed. There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by Timiş and according to Potra, Timiş refused his request for money. But Potra was allegedly useful in other ways. Investigators found that Georgescu benefited from Potra’s financial support from June 2024 until at least January 2025, including directly financing Georgescu’s campaign by covering the lease for a luxury limousine. Invoices annexed in the prosecutors file show Potra paid a €2,800 monthly rental for the vehicle, with messages showing this was a systematic arrangement throughout the election cycle. Prosecutors documented what are alleged to be repeated cash payments from Potra to Georgescu — either directly or through intermediaries. On August 3, 2024, Georgescu reached out to Potra, seeking “support” for the upcoming presidential election. “Maybe we can meet at the end of next week, starting Friday afternoon,” he wrote, according to the prosecutors’ files. “The elections are on November 24. Please, I need support until then.”  It’s not completely clear what this “support” involved. But one of the critical points in the election controversy centers on Georgescu’s — allegedly false — declaration that he incurred zero campaign expenditure.  ‘COME OUT WITH YOUR GUNS’ Many Romanians are deeply cynical about the political system in their country. The decision to annul the election last year has only reinforced the belief that their democracy is a sham. To Georgescu’s supporters, the charges against him and Potra are bogus slurs drummed up by a vindictive state establishment. The allegations, they say, are designed to damage Georgescu’s standing and lock him out of power. Despite numerous requests to Georgescu and Potra, made over several months — via contact with their legal representatives and other means — they did not respond to the allegations against them or to the information contained in this investigation. In February, Potra spoke to Georgescu’s preferred TV channel Realitatea Plus, denying any wrongdoing. Potra told the station that he had no connection to Georgescu’s campaign and dismissed the suggestion that he helped to fund it with Russian money. Potra explained the cash found in raids on his property, saying he had earned the money legitimately working for presidents in Africa and the king of Qatar. “All the money I brought to Romania,” he said. “Nobody forces me to keep my money in the bank because I’ve seen what happens: Accounts are blocked, they closed my accounts, and so on.” In December, Georgescu initially said that he did not know Potra at all but later admitted that he had concealed their connection, at Potra’s request. Georgescu has also confirmed that he used the limousine provided by Potra. But, like Potra, he has said he has done nothing wrong. In the aftermath of the Constitutional Court’s decision to annul the election on Dec. 6, Georgescu’s supporters went into something of a tailspin. According to transcripts in the prosecutors’ documents, tension flared in a WhatsApp group with Potra and his close associates. As their frustration mounted, Potra stepped in, urging patience: “We wait to see what CG declares,” referring to the initials of Călin Georgescu. By the next day, the conversation had shifted to logistics. Potra asked who was home and who was willing to travel to Bucharest. Several members confirmed their availability, and Potra set a meeting for that evening. In a separate Whatsapp group for mercenaries, with more than 1,500 members, one of Potra’s deputies also posted a call to mobilize and march on Bucharest.   According to prosecutors, most of the people detained during the attempted December raid on Bucharest had worked for Potra in DRC and had the “intent to use lethal force.” They were his most trusted soldiers.  As he walked out of the police station in handcuffs, Potra smiled. Asked why he had come to Bucharest in a convoy of armed men, he replied that he had come to vote.  The story isn’t over yet. On Sunday May 18, Romanians will vote in the final round of a rerun of the election to choose a new president. Their options don’t include Georgescu but that doesn’t mean the ultranationalist and his allies are out of the picture. For one thing, they have Trump’s team publicly on their side.  When Georgescu was finally banned from running in the new election in March, Potra sent an audio message to supporters. He seemingly called for a civil war: “Message to all the Romanian military — the true Romanian military who have sworn to defend their homeland and their nation, they have sworn a sacred oath: Come out now. Come out with your guns and arrest all those who staged the coup. Absolutely all of them, arrest them all.  “And if your generals try to stop you, arrest them too. Shame on those generals who so far have done nothing and accepted the coup. Come out, Romanian soldiers, honor your oath. You are not alone. The people are with you. God help us.”  Emmet Livingstone and Marine Leduc contributed with reporting. This investigation was supported by grants fromJournalismfund Europe, the IJ4EU fund and the Henry Nxumalo Foundation and Viewfinder. These funders or any other of their partners are not responsible for the content published and any use made of it. 

ALBA IULIA, Romania — The contest for the Romanian presidency is almost over.  Sunday’s vote will determine whether a strategically vital NATO member on the EU’s eastern edge takes a turn against Ukraine under the disruptive influence of a hard-right populist, or remains firmly anchored in the traditional pro-Brussels mainstream. In the lead after the first round is the Donald Trump-loving George Simion, a 38-year-old nationalist who opposes aid to Ukraine and has previously favored uniting Romania with its neighbor Moldova.  His opponent in Sunday’s second round runoff vote is moderate, centrist mathematician Nicușor Dan, 55, who has been the independent mayor of Romania’s capital, Bucharest, since 2020. Dan promises to keep Romania on its European and pro-Western trajectory and has called on Trump to take a harder line with Russia.  Their contest has at times taken on the air of a schoolyard stand-off: Simion, who is constantly picking conflicts with his critics, ridiculed the soft-spoken intellectual Dan as “autistic” on Thursday.  “We are basically winning,” Simion told POLITICO in separate remarks during a visit to Brussels on Thursday. “The only thing we need is fair and free elections, all the institutions to act in a normal, correct way, and we will finish first when the last vote [has] been counted. I have a rather optimistic view on it, on the final result, I think it will be a landslide.”  Is he right to be so confident?  THE POLLS  In the first round of the election, Simon won 41 percent of the vote to Dan’s 21 percent. The question is whether Simion can maintain that huge advantage — or if Dan can attract enough support from backers of other parties to overtake him in Sunday’s second round. In the early polls looking at the head-to-head contest after the first vote, Simion retained a comfortable lead — at 55 percent to Dan’s 45, in one survey commissioned by the Bucharest mayor himself.  But more recent polls have shown the gap narrowing significantly as decision day gets closer. On Wednesday, a poll of 4,000 people by AtlasIntel put the two candidates level on 48 percent each. Crucially, AtlasIntel included a sample of the large Romanian diaspora population, among whom Simion is hugely popular.  Then, on Thursday, Dan took the lead in a poll for the first time, with 52 percent to Simion’s 48 percent. That survey, by independent research institute IRSOP, canvassed some 950 people.  Nicușor Dan, 55, has been the independent mayor of Romania’s capital, Bucharest, since 2020. | Robert Ghement/EFE via EPA Many Romanians are reluctant to say how they will vote, with some fearing repercussions. Given the high level of cynicism regarding the process, and the fact the polls previously underestimated support for right-wingers, are such surveys truly reliable?  “Yes, they can be trusted,” said Radu Magdin, a former Romanian government adviser who is now CEO of Smartlink Communications. “It’s going to be really tight on Sunday. It’s highly unlikely that Simion wins with a margin. Either he wins close or even it’s a high possibility that Nicușor Dan catches up and wins, based on an increased participation.”  THE AIR WAR  Romania’s election has been fought largely on TV and on social media. Neither of the two candidates spent much time on the ground, touring the country, in the final days, and there has been no pressing the flesh or holding rallies in key constituencies. Simion hasn’t even been in the country. Both have instead relied on rallying their voters online and via TV appearances.  Dan has taken part in multiple debates on television, where he has given polished if sometimes pedestrian answers to questions.  Simion, by contrast, has only taken part in one direct debate involving Dan, which was seen to have helped the Bucharest mayor. Dan’s supporters have repeatedly complained that Simion won’t show up to TV debates, adopting the image of an empty chair to symbolize their opponent.  Romania’s national broadcaster scheduled a final TV question-and-answer “debate” for each candidate — with Dan appearing on Thursday and Simion 1due to take his turn on Friday. But Simion failed to confirm his participation, leading the broadcaster to call it off. Instead, Simion has used a regular flow of social media messages to ram home his radical, Trumpist offering. He has attacked the mainstream media, alleging they distort their coverage of his political positions, and has even hauled journalists into his office to give them an angry scolding before posting the video on X.  He has also radically changed his game in the last few days. This week he has toured Europe, perhaps to bolster his international credentials, meeting hard-right allies in Poland, Italy and Brussels.  During an exchange with a reporter in Brussels on Thursday, Simion said: “You have a candidate you’re supporting, he’s autistic, poor guy.”  Dan hit back: “Wanting to be president and using ‘autistic’ as an insult is unacceptable.”  POLICY CLASHES  When it comes to policy, Simion has promised to follow Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war and to emulate his governing style more generally, cutting taxes and boosting business while stamping out “woke” ideology and backing traditional Christian and family values. Amid criticism that he has been too pro-Putin, Simion has recently talked up his belief in NATO.  While avoiding outright anti-EU postures, he has also claimed to stand up for Romania in negotiations with the bloc, and on Thursday accused French President Emmanuel Macron of having “dictatorial tendencies” — the kind of comment that wouldn’t be out of place coming from Trump. Many Romanians are reluctant to say how they will vote, with some fearing repercussions. | Robert Ghement/EFE via EPA Dan, meanwhile, has called on Trump to put more pressure on Putin in peace negotiations with Ukraine and has vowed to continue to steer Romania along its pro-European and Western path, describing Simion as a “Russian gazette.” TURNOUT  In the end, voter turnout is likely to be the deciding factor. Analysts, including those within Dan’s camp, believe the higher the turnout, the better for the Bucharest mayor.  “Historically there is a higher turnout with around 10 per cent more in the 2nd round of presidential elections compared with the first round,” said analyst Magdin.  If turnout remains at the level of round one — up to 55 percent — Simion would likely win, he said. “At 60 percent-plus, suddenly Nicușor Dan becomes the most probable winner.”  One official working on Dan’s team told POLITICO that mobilizing new voters will be key. To win Dan needs 11 million people to turn out compared to the 9.5 million in the first round, the official said. GEORGESCU’S GHOST Simion is the frontrunner after ultranationalist Georgescu, the far-right shock victor of last year’s canceled election, was disqualified. Romanian authorities said foreign interference had helped propel him to victory. Many voters in Romania — including those who did not back Georgescu — felt aggrieved that faceless officials and judges could abort an election. People in Romania commonly describe democracy as a sham and demand that the country’s “corrupt” political system be torn down. Simion is the chief beneficiary of this anger, though Dan also promises to enact change and portrays himself as an “anti-system” politician.   FOREIGN VOTES  The Romanian diaspora could swing the Sunday vote results either way. An estimated 4 million Romanians live abroad, 970,000 of whom voted in the first round — with about 60 percent backing Simion.  Voting has already begun among the diaspora for round two. “The polls that we’ve seen until now are not accurate because they don’t cover the diaspora,” said Elena Calistru, civic activist and president of Funky Citizen NGO. “In the previous elections, the turnout for the diaspora was more than one million people.” “The huge difference we saw between the two candidates in the first round of the elections is indeed closing in, and Nicușor Dan is on the rise,” she said. “The turnout will be fundamental.”

Romania’s hard-right presidential frontrunner George Simion on Thursday said he would push for a broad coalition government if he is elected president on Sunday, potentially including his centrist opponent Nicușor Dan. Romanian politics plunged into turmoil in a presidential election late last year when the two main establishment parties — the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL) — were eclipsed by the stunning rise of far-right ultranationalist Călin Georgescu, who won the first round. Georgescu was later banned over undeclared election funding and allegations of Russian interference. The deciding round of a presidential election rerun will be held on May 18, with Simion expected to win, riding the wave of right-wing support Georgescu built up last year. Although they are part of a parliamentary majority, the PSD and PNL again performed badly in the presidential rerun and have failed to make it to Sunday’s second round. Instead, Simion from the hard-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) will face off against Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest, in the battle to become president. “My option is to form a big union government to get rid of this crisis,” Simion said, adding such a coalition was needed to stabilize national politics, fight the country’s deficit and stave off a serious economic downturn. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu from the PSD resigned after the dismal performance of his party in the first round of the presidential election rerun. Simion had predicted this, saying he could appoint Georgescu prime minister because the traditional parties had lost the credibility to hold a government together. Simion’s AUR was founded in 2019 and has surged to become the second-biggest party in Romania’s parliament. At the European level, it is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party, alongside Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The first task for whoever is elected on Sunday will be to gather enough support in the parliament to appoint a new prime minister. Simion, who said he is sure he will win Sunday’s ballot by a “landslide,” argued he could include his presidential opponent Dan, whom he called “Macron’s guy,” in government negotiations too. “I wouldn’t rule them out either because they are quite reformist,” Simion said, praising Dan’s anti-corruption platform and goals to reduce red-tape and spending on administration. “We will have to stay at the dialogue table and we will see who of them wants to go to government,” Simion promised. In a rapidly tightening race that looks like it is going down to the wire, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts Simion on 49 percent and Dan on 46 percent. ROMANIA PRESIDENTIAL POLL OF POLLS All 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Smooth Kalman For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. In truth, however, it is going to be far from easy for Simion to build up a coalition. Three out of the country’s four main parties have already said loud and clear they will not join a coalition with Simion: the PNL, the centrist Save Romania Union, and the Hungarian minority party. They deem Simion as too extreme and anti-European. They also criticize his hostile approach to Ukraine, as the hard-right candidate has said on multiple occasions he would oppose any further military aid to Ukraine. “We cannot imagine any cooperation with either AUR or Simion, it would be a disaster for the Hungarians in Romania,” said Botond Csoma, spokesperson of the Hungarian minority party. He qualified Simion’s potential victory as “terrible” and the start of a “dark era.” He could potentially find friends in the PSD, whose leadership announced after the first round of the election they would not endorse Dan against Simion in the runoff, leaving the door open to future collaboration with AUR. Yet that would be no easy feat, either. The European Socialists’ umbrella party, of which the PSD is a member, is pressuring the Romanian party to avoid a coalition with Simion. Socialists at the European level have spearheaded a campaign to keep far-right parties out of decision-making in Brussels. Such an alliance in Romania would put their credibility at risk. Csongor Körömi contributed to the reporting.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said Monday he would resign, throwing the country into further turmoil after a hard-right candidate easily won the first round of the country’s presidential election. An interim prime minister will be appointed Tuesday morning, local media reported, citing Romania’s presidential administration. Ciolacu has been prime minister since 2023, leading the ruling center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD). PSD’s candidate for president, Crin Antonescu, came third in Sunday’s closely watched election. The second round on May 18 will pit hard-right leader George Simion against independent Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, sidelining Romania’s establishment parties entirely. Ciolacu himself ran for president in last year’s annulled election. His campaign was criticized for his use of luxury planes, and he placed third, with less than a fifth of the vote. He offered his resignation then but ultimately remained in his post. In an interview with POLITICO before the election, Simion predicted that the prime minister would have to go if the establishment parties flopped again — and he has touted Călin Georgescu, the disqualified winner of last November’s cancelled election, for the role. This story is being updated.