LONDON — Since Labour swept into office last year, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has traveled the country enthusing over the government’s dream of a humming, futuristic net-zero economy. The good news, according to polling released Wednesday, is that his vision still has the backing of the public. The bad news is that support is slipping — and voters aren’t convinced Miliband is the guy to deliver it. For Miliband’s political opponents, this validates their wider attacks on him as an out-of-touch climate warrior, flogging a net-zero dream voters have rejected. At Reform’s party conference Friday, party chair David Bull referenced “mad Ed swivel-eyed Milliband.” Not to be outdone, the Conservatives have vowed to squeeze every molecule of oil and gas from beneath the North Sea, deadly heatwaves be damned. But it also shines a light on a confusing feature of British politics: a misalignment between the stories politicians want to tell about efforts to stop climate change, and stuff the public actually care about. At Reform’s party conference Friday, the party chair David Bull referenced “mad Ed swivel-eyed Milliband.” | Leon Neal/Getty Images The polling, conducted by progressive think tank More in Common and the Climate Outreach NGO, found the number of people who think reaching net-zero emissions will be good for the U.K. vastly outnumber those who think it will have a negative effect — 48 percent versus 16 percent. More people feel that the shift to clean energy has been fair than unfair. In Scotland, more are proud of the offshore wind industry (63 percent) than the oil and gas industry (54 percent). “Those who seek to divide communities with climate disinformation will not win because they do not represent the interests or values of the British people,” Miliband said in a statement shared with the media. Despite this, voters are hesitant about the personal impact of a country rushing to go green. Seventy-four percent of people think the U.K.’s commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 will eventually cost them money personally. The gap between those who think it will be beneficial for the U.K. versus harmful has shrunk by 20 points in only a year. This is frequently interpreted as a sign that a personal desire to help fix the climate is butting up against the hard realities of net zero, which requires changes like fitting millions of heat pumps and EV chargers and overhauling the energy grid. Further polling released by The Times Tuesday backs up the sense voters are growing more divided on climate change. It shows support for net zero collapsing among Reform and Conservative voters, while overall the issue has slipped from voters’ list of top concerns. But analysts from Climate Outreach said part of the problem isn’t the message but the messengers. “Politicians are not well trusted to speak about climate,” the NGO said in an analysis shared with POLITICO. In fact, elected leaders were the least trusted carriers of the climate message — beneath also-lowly ranked protesters and energy company executives. TRUST ISSUES Voter wariness about pro-climate messages isn’t a feature of green politics in particular, said Emma James, a researcher at Climate Outreach, but a symptom of broader public cynicism about government. “They don’t trust that politicians are there for people like them. Some audience segments feel that the system is rigged against them,” she said. It’s not net zero the public aren’t buying, it’s the ability of this government — or any government — to deliver it. Voters believe the NHS remains broken. National projects like high-speed rail lines and nuclear power stations keep being delayed at higher and higher costs. This creates a problem for Miliband. At a time of deep voter skepticism, his Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) is pursuing precisely that kind of major national project — involving upfront costs, disruption and complex trade-offs, with the promise of huge savings to private and public purses down the line. It will, Miliband argues, generate new jobs. Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives went in search of their own set of climate salespeople. | Carl Court/Getty Images “We will win this fight by showing the visible benefits of the clean energy transition,” insisted one Labour official, granted anonymity to discuss the government’s internal deliberations. The story of failure, however, is pervasive and self-reinforcing, said Richard Johnson, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London. “Policy delivery has to be tied in with a compelling political narrative and the political leadership that can tell that story and interpret what people are seeing in front of their eyes,” he said. “I wonder now if there is such a high level of cynicism … that even if you did tell a compelling narrative around policy delivery, that people would not believe it.” Johnson lays the blame with Miliband’s boss, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, “who has been in a way almost catastrophically unable to put together a compelling narrative for his government. Or, quite frankly, even his own leadership.” Downing Street says it is focused on driving economic growth across the country. This is not isolated to Labour. Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives went in search of their own set of climate salespeople — before deciding that there was more political capital in ditching pro-climate policies. Climate Outreach said Miliband could turn this problem into an “opportunity,” as long as he laid off the grand projet and focused on the visible, local benefits of climate policies. And there is some evidence that Labour gets it, seen in the government’s move to chip in for the energy bills of people living in sight of unpopular new electricity pylons. The more conservative or skeptical parts of the British electorate still had deep enthusiasm for messages about protecting the environment, the pollsters said. But most important, the NGO argued, was bringing other voices into the frame. While politicians are viewed very dimly indeed, experts and scientists are seen as credible messengers, the polling shows. So too are those seen to understand what life is like for normal British people. Farmers were among the messengers who cut through most with traditionalists and those described by the pollsters as “patriots.” Jeremy Clarkson, DESNZ needs you.

Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and author of “False Alarm” and “Best Things First.” Europe is alone. The post-1945 world order has collapsed, and — as incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz puts it — we’re at “five minutes to midnight.” Amid this ever-darkening back drop, both Merz and French President Macron advocate “strategic autonomy” for Europe. But this will be expensive and require major trade-offs. U.S. President Donald Trump’s hyperactive, isolationist policy is hardly the continent’s only challenge either. The EU is suffering anemic growth — barely above 1 percent per person. Long gone are the 1960s, when the economy would double in just 16 years. Now, it takes over half a century. Europe is also growing old, with increasing health and pension costs. Education is floundering; immigration is challenging both budgets and cohesion, and hasn’t increased growth; and innovation has come to a near halt, with Europe dramatically outspent on research by China, the U.S. and even the rest of the world. So, how is Europe going to get its mojo back? How can it find the resources to rearm, grow and return to a path of innovation? Simple. It’s well past time the bloc reconsidered hemorrhaging money on an unaffordable and ineffectual climate policy that no other continent is emulating. The costs to get Europe back on track are considerable: To rearm, the bloc will need to at least double or even triple its 1.8 percent of GDP defense spending — that means at least another €325 billion each year. For innovation, the EU itself set a target of €170 billion more — something it has failed to do for 25 years. And yet, increasing innovation could deliver €800 billion in additional growth each year over the coming decades. Pundits, meanwhile, offer solutions that range from slashing welfare and increasing taxes to borrowing and getting richer. Welfare costs 30 percent of the EU’s GDP, amounting to some €3 trillion each year for social protection and €1.5 trillion for pensions. But both spending cuts and tax hikes would be immensely challenging to pull off. Borrowing is tempting but dangerous, given the mountains of existing debt. And getting richer would obviously solve many problems but requires more innovation investment, fewer brakes on growth and deregulation. There is, however, one obvious reform that could drive growth and free up enormous resources: overhauling our climate policy. Currently, the EU spends a third of its entire budget on climate policy. Just last year, the price tag for buying things like solar panels, wind turbines, transmission lines, electric cars and chargers was €367 billion — this amount alone could fund Europe’s need for defense spending. The EU’s extremely high energy prices also drain the continent’s growth rate, leaving less money for all other priorities. Currently, the cost is already beyond another 1 percent of GDP, and toward 2050, it will escalate to about 10.5 percent of GDP, or some €3.3 trillion annually. The post-1945 world order has collapsed, and — as incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz puts it — we’re at “five minutes to midnight.” | Sean Gallup/Getty Images Of course, climate campaigners will counter that Europe is now all that’s standing against unmitigated climate disaster. But this is far from true. While climate change is a man-made problem, it pales in comparison to most of the pressing challenges Europe is now facing. Moreover, the EU has already cut its emissions a lot. Further cuts will have zero impact on temperatures over the coming decades. Even spending hundreds of trillions of euros on net zero by 2050, the impact will be unmeasurable. Just run the U.N.’s climate model with EU emissions going to zero, and the change in global temperature is zero today and an imperceptible 0.017 degrees Celsius by mid-century. The world won’t thank the EU for its self-sacrificial net-zero approach. It will, however, hold up the continent as a dangerous example of what to avoid. Nobody will follow a self-defeating, self-punishing policy. I’m not suggesting we throw out climate policy altogether. But for a much lower cost, the EU could embrace a much smarter policy. Climate economists have long known the solution to climate change isn’t self-immolation but innovation: Drive down the future price of low-carbon energy through R&D spending to eventually outcompete fossil fuels, and everyone will switch over — not just rich, well-meaning Europe, but China, India and Africa too. And it would cost just one-twentieth of the resources currently being poorly spent. Europe is now at a crossroads. It can continue to keep net-zero policies as its central pillar — amounting to ruinous virtue signaling while the rest of the world passes it by. Or it can end this singular obsession and implement a smart climate policy, spending €27 billion on green innovation, leaving far beyond €300 billion to be spent better elsewhere.   This would not only have a much greater chance of fixing climate change, it would also free precious European resources to drive innovation, boost defense and — through much lower energy prices — reinvigorate a high-growth continent to once again meet the challenges of the future.

PORT TALBOT, WALES — Julian Thomas has lost his job in the steel industry twice now. The first time, he moved home to south Wales. He lasted 22 more years, driving trains loaded with freshly-coiled metal at the Port Talbot steelworks. But in November, he was made redundant again. Thomas, 56, is a grandad. He thought he would work in Port Talbot until he retired; now he is seeking retraining. In his view, he was let down by decades of Britain outsourcing its dirty industries to the east — and by a Labour government that broke its word. “I genuinely believed they would help to keep this works open,” he told POLITICO, browsing a jobs fair on the mezzanine level of Port Talbot’s 1970s shopping mall. Thomas voted Labour in the 2024 general election on its vow to secure the industry’s future. Three months later, the blast furnaces shut down. He will not vote Labour next year. “I can’t vote for people I think are doing nothing for you,” he said. He is considering backing either an independent or Reform UK, the upstart party led by veteran right-winger Nigel Farage. Never mind that Port Talbot plans a greener furnace to melt scrap metal from 2028; that an £80 million government support fund is helping staff and businesses; that a £2.5 billion “plan for steel” is in the works; or that Labour insists its deal was better than one it inherited, late in the day, from its Tory predecessors. For many workers, these points are less salient than the 2,500 jobs lost in the short term — never mind the contractors, shops and cafes that depend on them across town. Labour has held this seat for 103 years, as long as it has been Wales’ largest party. But polls predict a seismic upset in next year’s elections to the Welsh parliament, the Senedd — a test bed for the U.K.’s next general election in 2029. Some of those caught in deindustrialization are eyeing Reform, with its anti-net zero and anti-immigration credentials — even if, like Thomas, they aren’t yet convinced Farage is the answer. POLITICO spoke to around two dozen Labour and Reform officials and politicians across Welsh politics, in both Westminster and the Senedd. Such is the anxiety that many asked for anonymity to discuss party matters. But the overall impression was clear: a right-wing party in breezy ascendancy — and a center-left ruling party riven over what to do about it.  WELCOME TO STEEL TOWN Two blast furnaces still dominate the coastal skyline of Port Talbot. You see them from Station Road; from Cafe Remo’s on the beach; from the M4 motorway; and over rooftops from the hills that rise steeply above town. The white plumes and occasional smell of rotten eggs are gone, but they remain as symbols of a Britain slipping away. The plant is run by Indian firm Tata, while British Steel is Chinese-owned. Labour insists it is helping an industry that is already changing to move with the times. As the U.K.’s single-biggest carbon dioxide emitter, Port Talbot, without change, was a hurdle in reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Thomas is more skeptical. He points to U.S. President Donald Trump, who boasts of putting America first and threatens tariffs on steel imports. “He’s looking after his own interests. China are. We were just piggy in the middle,” he said. Two blast furnaces still dominate the coastal skyline of Port Talbot. | Justin Tallis/Getty Images Jordan Griffiths put it more simply: “If we went to war, we couldn’t produce our own steel.” Griffiths, 24, was a welder fabricator contractor in Port Talbot for four years. His dad, brother and cousins all worked there too. He now hopes to find work at the Hinkley Point nuclear power station — but it’s a 100-mile drive away on a speed-restricted motorway (Wales’ Labour government scrapped a planned relief road due to environmental concerns). It would mean leaving his two young children behind for half the week.  “I would have to make that sacrifice to make sure me and my family are financially steady,” Griffiths said. Last year was his first general election; he voted Reform. He has friends who are on the housing waiting list, while “people coming over get accommodated in five-star hotels.” He has half a mind to leave the country. Some younger workers are heading to Australia; others have less choice. Many will end up in “lower-paid, less secure, less dignified” work, said one Welsh Labour strategist. “It’s professional men in their 20s and 30s who feel like they’re having their dignity stripped away.” A vast Amazon “fulfilment center” is a 20-minute drive away. Almost 2,000 people have visited a bright, cheerful drop-in careers shop run by the Community union. In one period of less than two weeks, it received 24 calls about suicide. THATCHER WITHOUT THE THATCHER South Wales has been here before, when coal mines shut under 1980s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Her legacy ensured generations here would never vote Conservative. Reform UK is different. Of the dozen current or departed workers in Port Talbot who spoke to POLITICO, only three said they were likely to vote Labour next time. Five said they would either vote Reform or were considering it. Two were considering Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru — who challenge Labour from the left — and two said they might not vote at all. “There is an anti-Tory sentiment in these seats, which protects Labour from the Tories,” said one Labour figure in Westminster. “Reform is a different package altogether — it’s something new, it’s not tainted by Thatcherism.” Farage is a lover of Thatcher who backed a statue of her in London’s Trafalgar Square, “but for whatever reason, people choose not to see that.” Mark Turner, 60, was in the steel industry for 30 years. The Unite union official, a self-described “Corbynite” left-winger who will back Labour, says his old colleagues are “definitely turning to Reform because Reform is basically saying what they think.” He added: “Labour gained power, and literally within days their stance [on Port Talbot] completely changed.” Nigel Parsons, 51, was made redundant Dec. 30. He’s lucky — his mortgage is paid off — but his next job will pay less. He believes a £500 million government deal for Port Talbot’s future should have had more strings attached. “I always used to vote Labour,” he said. “My mother and father voted Labour, and I did. But I’ll tell you honestly, I voted Reform last time and I will continue to vote Reform until he [Farage] comes in.” Alan Walters, 58, who moved to the steelworks from digging up roads on night shifts, will stick with Labour. His last day is March 31, but he hopes to return when the new electric arc furnace is built. Other workers don’t trust that it will arrive. As the U.K.’s single biggest carbon dioxide emitter, Port Talbot, without change, was a hurdle in reaching net zero emissions by 2050. | Justin Tallis/Getty Images One outgoing steelworker, 29, said “you can’t fault the government” for global factors. Others say the same. Yet he is currently backing Reform: “It’s to give [Labour] something to think about.” ‘ALL THEY’VE DONE IS SHAFT US’ Port Talbot is not unlike the American “rust belt” towns that embraced Farage’s ally, Donald Trump. “They like heavy industry, and they like big plates of food,” as one Welsh union official put it. There is no railway line or electrical grid link between north and south Wales. Skepticism of the establishment runs hot: The county of Neath Port Talbot voted 57 percent for Brexit in 2016. One steelworker said of politicians: “All they have done is shaft us.” Turner said: “Reform is a bit like Brexit — a case of ‘I don’t like what’s going on, it’s not working for me … so I may as well vote for something different.’” On a sunny Tuesday, Port Talbot doesn’t yet look like a left-behind town. The shopping center has a decent footfall and there are fewer shuttered shops than in Llanelli, a 40-minute drive away. But residents fear far worse if the transition stutters. Muhammad Usama, 25, tending a mobile phone stall, says it’s already quieter than a year ago. A tire shop down the road has had to lay off five workers because of the drop in trade. Leanne Kehoe, 43, is at the jobs fair after her weekly hours at a hotel were cut from 30 to 12.  Local Labour MP Stephen Kinnock won a thumping 10,354-vote majority last July but on a turnout of less than 50 percent; Reform came second. Not for nothing did Farage say last week he wanted to “reindustrialize Britain.” LABOUR ‘VOTING ITSELF OUT OF POWER’ Whatever the cause, few doubt Reform is surging in Wales — and not just in the old southern coalfield, which is only one part of the national fabric. Farage’s party came second in 13 of Wales’ 32 seats in 2024, and will be boosted by a more proportional voting system for the Senedd elections in May 2026. Sixteen mega-seats will have six members each, elected on party lists via the proportional D’Hondt method. This will hand an advantage to Reform, whose support is spread more evenly than that of rival parties. Polls predict a three-way fight among Labour, Reform and Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru to be the largest party in the Senedd, with the Conservatives in fourth. Defenders of Wales’ former First Minister Mark Drakeford, who brought the system in, note that Reform would have done well anyway because the old system was semi-proportional. But Labour officials at the highest levels in London have been raising their eyebrows. “It’s a chaotic system, absolutely mad,” added the Welsh Labour strategist quoted above. Labour politicians expect Reform to win at least one Senedd member (MS), if not two, in almost all of the 16 seats. A second Labour figure in Westminster predicted Labour could end up with fewer seats than its 30 now — even though the total up for grabs is rising from 60 to 96. Defenders of Wales’ former First Minister Mark Drakeford, who brought the system in, note that Reform would have done well anyway because the old system was semi-proportional. | Leon Neal/Getty Images A third Labour figure in Westminster said: “The whole system is nonsense. We’ve got to be the only party ever who has created a system that could vote itself out of power.”  FARAGE’S UPSTARTS HAVE JUST TWO STAFF Reform is not ready — yet. It has no Welsh HQ, and only two permanent staff in Wales (increasing to three shortly). For now it is relying on the U.K. party’s heavy online presence, influx of wealthy donors and its charismatic leader. Party officials expect Farage to be front and center of the Welsh campaign, and are mulling whether he should apply to front any head-to-head TV election debate, despite not being a Senedd candidate. One Reform strategist said: “He’s definitely going to lead our campaign — he’s the most popular politician in Wales.” Reform is recruiting more staff, discussing plans for an office in the Welsh capital Cardiff, and sent out application forms for Senedd candidates on Feb. 17. The party plans a conference at a convention center in Newport, south Wales, on May 11. It will be a chance for Labour to try out its tactics — a “laboratory for how to fight Reform at the general election,” as a fourth Labour figure in Westminster put it. But Farage will get to test his message too. The Reform strategist quoted above said: “If you want change, there’s only one party that can beat Labour at this election.” Reform won a by-election for a council seat in Torfaen, a south Wales Labour heartland, earlier this month. The numbers were tiny — Reform had 457 votes to Labour’s 259 — but the result set off alarm bells within Labour. “We probably knew we had this in the bag within the first week of knocking doors,” said Torfaen councillor Dave Thomas, 47, an independent who defected to Reform last year after Farage’s return. (“I kind of felt a little bit lost without him.”) Thomas predicts an “onslaught” that could see Reform lead the Welsh government — despite the numbers indicating a Labour-Plaid coalition. “I would pretty much bet my life savings that we will probably be the biggest party,” he added. Labour’s question is what to do about it. ‘FUCKED’ “Fucked,” “screwed,” “idiots,” “complacent,” “mollycoddled,” “nutty,” “naive,” “smug,” “heads in the sand,” “intent on their own destruction” — all words that Labour figures in Westminster have privately used toward the Welsh operation or the people in it.  The tension is partly because MPs and MSs face different electorates. Senedd elections breed low Tory turnout and nationalist sentiment, allowing Labour to make a more center-left pitch to voters. Nigel Farage will get to test his message too. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Lee Waters, a Labour MS who is standing down next year, said: “There’s just a different set of values, a different political mandate, cycle.” Waters argued this is “the whole point of devolution — we’re not here to simply be a mini-Westminster.”  But the fourth Labour figure quoted above said: “It’s toxic … there is a dysfunctional relationship. The fact the Welsh PLP [Parliamentary Labour Party] hate the Senedd group is a significant problem for the party.” There are concerns too among Labour-affiliated trade unions, who are watching members turn to Reform. Labour in Wales has in the past focused on more left-wing policies, while Labour in Westminster faces right. Many regret Wales’ rollout of default 20 miles per hour road-speed limits, down from 30mph. Waters, who as transport minister oversaw the rollout, defended the policy despite admitting it was “toxic with some people,” saying casualties are down by a quarter. Welsh Labour MPs are also pushing for a tougher line on immigration to focus on blue-collar voters (a similar push is happening among MPs in England). Some Labour figures in the Senedd argue immigration should not be a hard focus in the 2026 election campaign at all — because policy is not devolved to Cardiff. That enrages some Labour figures in Westminster, who hear no distinction on the doorstep. ‘HELP’ FROM LONDON It’s perhaps little surprise that Labour officials in London are involved. Having benefited from Reform’s splitting the right-wing vote last year, Labour is aware of the threat to its own position across England and Wales. No. 10 strategists now speak of making Labour the “disruptor” to avoid being disrupted. Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Cabinet ministers last week not to “look down at people” concerned by immigration. Labour’s General Secretary Hollie Ridley and other senior officials speak regularly to their colleagues in the Welsh party, said a person with knowledge of the conversations. Labour MS Alun Davies has a leading role on writing the 2026 manifesto, but Torsten Bell, a rising-star MP and former think-tank boss who is favored by No. 10, was asked to feed into the process, three people told POLITICO. The same people cautioned that his involvement would be limited now that he’s a minister; one said a different Welsh MP will be chosen to pitch in. Matt Faulding, an official who was in charge of finding dependable (and Starmer-friendly) Labour candidates across the U.K. for the 2024 general election, is feeding into the work of finding new candidates for the Senedd, three people with knowledge of the process said. Selections will kick into gear in the coming weeks. The cooperation goes both ways — Eluned Morgan, Wales’ Labour first minister, has encouraged MPs to come up with names. | Pool Photo by Andy Buchanan via Getty Images The cooperation goes both ways — Eluned Morgan, Wales’ Labour first minister, has encouraged MPs to come up with names. But the Welsh union official quoted above said the U.K. party wants to “retain the same level of ruthlessness” with which Starmer’s Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, and allies such as Faulding, steered selections in the lead-up to 2024. “They see [Wales] as a staging post between now and 2029.” There are plenty of vacancies. Drakeford promised incumbents they would top the party’s list in each constituency — a promise two people said has been kept, despite some Labour MPs hoping otherwise. But a dozen of the 30 Labour MSs have announced they are standing down, and colleagues believe more than half could go. Drama still awaits. The Senedd super-seat for Port Talbot looks likely to have three Labour incumbents standing, including Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies. They will have to fight for first place in a ballot of local members. DELIVERY FROM CARDIFF The unenviable job of getting it right falls to Eluned Morgan. The first minister took the job last August after her short-lived predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned amid a donations scandal. She embarked on a “listening exercise” that produced four priorities — health, transport, green jobs, and “opportunities” in schools and social housing. To her supporters, this was the reset Labour needed. A fifth Labour figure in Westminster described Morgan as a “good communicator” and “refreshing,” adding, in reference to a legendary if controversial Labour communicator: “She’s straight-up and honest about stuff. I don’t think she would be described as a sort of … Peter Mandelson art of spin.” But they added: “There’s a period between now and the start of the campaign for the Senedd where delivery on objectives and priorities by the first minister is really key … She’s going to need to show people changes they can see and feel.” This mirrors Labour’s focus on “delivery” in England. Welsh councillors have been offered training on making the positive sell on the doorstep, two people said, and Labour’s manifesto is expected to focus heavily on funding for the NHS.  Yet in Wales, Labour has been in power for 26 years, and can no longer blame its ills on poor funding from the central government. And Starmer and McSweeney are working to five- and 10-year timelines. The Welsh Labour strategist quoted above said: “The question is whether it will be enough by 2026. I don’t know how we deal with the fact that the NHS has become terrible on our watch.” YOUR LOCAL REFORM CANDIDATE Reform knows this. In Torfaen the upstart party campaigned on “local issues — council tax, local crime, potholes, refuse collections, street lighting, community facilities,” said Thomas. One party official said the plan for 2026 is to focus on bread-and-butter areas like health, education and the economy, more than on immigration. Labour’s response is to point out that Reform is new; untested; not to be trusted. | Oli Scarff/Getty Images POLITICO has barely sat down at Caroline Jones’ kitchen table when she brings up child poverty. The former MS for UKIP, Farage’s old party, talks about visiting an armed forces veteran who was living rough. Her home in the woods overlooks the Port Talbot blast furnaces. “When you look at people, they seem dragged down,” she told me. “They want some inspiration and some hope for the future.”  Jones held a Reform branch meeting on a recent rainy Wednesday night; 72 people turned up. Labour’s response is to point out that Reform is new; untested; not to be trusted. Former Port Talbot worker Alun Davies, 55, who works for the Community union, said the Labour government showed far more commitment to the steelworks — and got a better deal — than the Tories ever did. “People are just despondent because they’ve lost their jobs and the first people they’re going to lash out at are the government,” he said. “Farage has got no answers. It’s all pie in the sky rubbish … I think he’s full of piss and wind.” A sixth Labour figure in Westminster said: “I think [Reform] will fuck up. My worry is … will they fuck up enough before the general election?” So how to convince voters? One Welsh government figure insisted Labour is in “full combat mode” against Reform already, and “gloves will come off” as the party’s candidates and policies — and their flaws — become better known. They said the plan is also to challenge Reform on its “values and principles,” including Farage’s history of comments on whether to bring in an insurance-based model for the NHS, and to press the point that “Reform are the Tories Mark 2.” But the second Labour figure in Westminster quoted above lamented: “Painting Nigel Farage as more Tory than the Tories just isn’t going to work. We tried it in 2015, we tried it in 2017.” THE ASYLUM HOTEL Then there’s the trickier divide — immigration. Soothing pop music plays on the stereo at the Stradey Park hotel. Flowers garnish the tables; the windows look out on the hills around Llanelli. Martyn Palfreman had his wedding there. But Palfreman, a Labour county councillor whose ward covers the hotel, knows it for another reason. In 2023 the Home Office (then run by the Conservatives) announced plans to temporarily house up to 241 asylum seekers in the 76-bedroom venue. The plans were withdrawn but left their mark. Over a coffee at the hotel, Palfreman says he and local Labour MP Nia Griffith opposed the scheme from the start — but their narrative “just didn’t stick,” with voters skeptical of his party. Griffith’s majority was cut to just 1,504 in last year’s election, while the Tories were knocked into fourth place. Reform came second. Palfreman said the hotel row had been a “massive catalyst” for the result, aided in part by “infiltration by the far right” of some protests. Lee Waters, whose Llanelli seat covers the hotel, agreed: “A large number of people in Llanelli feel that we let them down.” Chancellor Rachel Reeves has her eye trained on the City of London. | Pool Photo by Jordan Pettitt via Getty Images But both men think the answer is not to adopt harder rhetoric on immigration more generally, as many others in Labour believe. Waters said the “posturing and rhetoric about immigration is fundamentally missing the point,” given that Labour’s problem in south Wales is “generations of economic abandonment.” Tony Blair focused on a services economy; Chancellor Rachel Reeves has her eye trained on the City of London. “We don’t really have a lot to say economically to a community like ours, I’m afraid,” Waters added. “That’s the brutal reality.” Palfreman added: “I think we should be sowing a bit of unity. It [also] alienates some of our more liberal, left-leaning core support, because they’ll say, well, Labour’s just the same as the others.” A THIRD WAY That left-leaning vote is looking at Plaid Cymru — particularly in seats like Llanelli’s, which also includes Plaid-friendly Carmarthen. For some politicians in Cardiff, the nationalist party — which could keep Labour in power in 2026 via a coalition — should be the focus. A second Welsh government figure said: “It depends on whether you think those people voting Reform can be won back to Labour … We can’t out-Reform Reform.” One private session at the party’s Welsh conference in November focused more on beating Plaid than Reform, a seventh Labour figure in Westminster said. “The MPs in the room were like — ‘this is insane,’” they said.  The union official quoted above added: “They’re living in cloud cuckoo land.” In many ways, the Reform threat has crept up fast. Not even Labour’s U.K. HQ marked Llanelli as a battleground seat in 2024. Griffith was advised to campaign in Carmarthen. But it may become too late to win back Reform voters. Working-class former industrial areas have been “moving away from the party for a long time,” Waters said. “The majorities that we were getting in 1987, 1992 were enormous. They’ve gone down as turnout has gone down.” Richard Wyn Jones, who leads the Welsh Election Study, said evidence from the general election was that “almost nobody who voted Labour in 2019 voted for Reform in 2024.”  Wyn Jones agreed Labour is “in panic mode” but added: “These voters haven’t voted Labour for at least two or three general elections … [and] if Labour now decide they need to chase the Reform votes, there’s a huge danger that they leave their Plaid flank wide open.” NHS AND NET ZERO Wales’ devolved NHS will be a big target of attack for all parties. Liz Saville Roberts, Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader, said: “They’ve been running the NHS for 25 years. So while Labour can say Farage would wreck the NHS, we can say Labour have wrecked the NHS and Farage would make it worse.” She plans to focus on other devolved issues too, including ownership of the sea bed where offshore wind farms will be built. Reform will go hard on Britain’s net zero goals in the other direction. Over a pint in Llanelli’s Wetherspoons, Gareth Beer — a Reform candidate who nearly won last year — tells me net zero rules and the apparent blight of solar farms are coming up on the doorstep. Wales’ devolved NHS will be a big target of attack for all parties. | Adrian Dennis/Getty Images Beer, 49, who runs a building maintenance firm and lives in the coastal castle town of Kidwelly, said: “It’s about a political class that are in London, in their little community, bouncing off each other, and everything’s fine. But when you get out into the Rust Belt, it’s not fine.” Beer is skeptical about man-made climate change: “On a macro level, we can’t affect the sun, and it’s mainly driven in my mind, in my research, by the sun. That’s the end of it. Not a trace gas that’s 400 parts in every million parts of the atmosphere … I’m not a solar expert, but there’s solar winds and all sorts of things, it’s a big red ball in the sky, isn’t it, and the output of that varies over the centuries, over the years. That’s why we had ice ages.” CHANGE? In the end the problem may be simpler: disillusionment. Behind the counter of her burger van in Port Talbot, Mandie Pugh, 59, has a roll call of complaints that you would hear in any left-behind town. Lying politicians; a country “over-run” by immigration; broken social care; an NHS that can’t see her for an ear infection; families living on benefits; Downing Street parties during the Covid pandemic. Her husband works in the steelworks, and she’s now “ashamed” to have voted Labour. Though “I wouldn’t vote in the Welsh elections,” she adds. “It’s a load of shit.” This could yet be Labour’s silver lining. The same disengagement that affects the ruling party will mean many are yet to be convinced about Farage. Yet “change” was enough to sweep out 14 years of Tory rule in Westminster last July. In a world of anti-incumbency, Labour politicians in Wales will now hope they avoid the same fate.

LONDON — Sorry seems to be the easiest word. Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch is on an apology tour Wednesday as she seeks to explain why her party plummeted to an historic election loss last July and rebuild trust with British voters. While tearing chunks out of Labour, Badenoch lambasted her party for failing to come up with a coherent plan for economic growth after Brexit, making a legal commitment to a net zero emissions target by 2050 without explaining how they’d do it, and dropping the ball on migration. It’s a big moment for Badenoch as she looks to steady the ship. But she’s not the first U.K. political leader to try and move on — by burying the recent past. 2006: DAVID CAMERON SORRY FOR TORY EU OBSESSION Taking the reins shortly after his Conservative party failed to make a dent in Tony Blair’s majority at the 2005 election, David Cameron’s smooth-talking, energetic style had Tories long in the doldrums hoping for a savior. But Cameron’s first conference speech as leader went far beyond style, offering both an apology and a frank autopsy of his party’s failings. He lambasted them for talking about their own hobby horses rather than the people’s priorities, pressing for tax cuts rather than economic stability, and pushing selective grammar schools over broader educational standards. But his speech is best remembered for his line that, instead of talking about the childcare squeeze, the Tories had spent too long “banging on about Europe.” David Cameron’s speech is best remembered for his line that, instead of talking about the childcare squeeze, the Tories had spent too long “banging on about Europe.” | Leon Neal/Getty Images That famous line did, for a short time, seem to quiet Eurosceptic feuding and allow the Tories to rebuild into an election-winning machine. But given David Cameron is now best known as the Prime Minister who presided over Brexit, you have to wonder, where did it all go wrong? 2010: ED MILIBAND SORRY FOR THE IRAQ WAR When Cameron swept into Downing Street in 2010, it was Labour’s turn for a post-mortem on their election failings. New leader Ed Miliband, from the party’s soft left, was frank in his analysis. It was in large part, about Iraq. The 2003 Labour-backed invasion, Miliband told his party faithful, had led to a “fundamental loss of trust” and it was “right to level with people” about it. The 2003 Labour-backed invasion, Ed Miliband told his party faithful, had led to a “fundamental loss of trust” and it was “right to level with people” about it. | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images Branding Tony Blair’s decision to take Britain to war as “wrong”, Miliband also offered a eyebrow-raising excuse for his own lack of criticism when in government, saying he was bound by the “collective responsibility” principle that stops members of the government from openly hitting out at decisions made around the cabinet table. His analysis went down well with members listening to his keynote conference speech, but led to some awkward scenes as senior members of his party were captured on camera refusing to applaud along. Former cabinet minister Harriet Harman did join in with the applause, only to be castigated by Miliband’s brother (and defeated leadership rival) David, who leaned in to her and said: “You voted for it, why are you clapping?” Hardly the best start. 2016: JEREMY CORBYN REALLY, REALLY SORRY FOR THE IRAQ WAR When veteran left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn sensationally won the Labour leadership in 2016, he had plenty to say about the reasons for its spate of election defeats and how to put things right. He accused the Westminster establishment of being out-of-touch with young people, slammed the “intrusive” and “abusive” media, and suggested his party had abandoned its core supporters. But Corbyn also made the promise of further apologies for Iraq a key promise in his leadership bid — which he delivered on repeatedly. Like his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn hoped setting the record straight would encourage disillusioned voters — particularly young people — to return to his party, even if it meant some short-term anger from the right. | Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images The time for an apology on behalf of the Labour Party was “past time,” the veteran anti-interventionist later stated. The U.K.’s involvement was, he said, based on “deception,” with MPs “misled” by the governmental top brass. Like his predecessor, Corbyn hoped setting the record straight would encourage disillusioned voters — particularly young people — to return to his party, even if it meant some short-term anger from the right. 2020: KEIR STARMER SORRY FOR CORBYN Corbyn’s initial popularity failed to transform his party’s election record, with the left-wing leader presiding over an underwhelming result in 2017 and a brutal election drubbing in 2019. Tasked with turning around their fortunes, newly-elected Labour leader Keir Starmer was quick to offer a diagnosis. Corbyn had been their biggest problem. In his first conference speech as leader, Starmer didn’t mention his predecessor by name, but the message came across loud and clear. “It’s time to get serious about winning,” he said. “This is a party under new leadership.” Starmer continued his dismantling of Corbyn’s record by deriding his claim that while Labour had lost the election they had “won the arguments.” “Let’s be blunt,” he fired back. “Let’s be brutally honest with ourselves. When you lose an election in a democracy, you deserve to.” And beyond Corbyn’s policy priorities, the new Labour leader was keen to hammer home his view about the corrosive impact that allegations of anti-semitism had had on Labour’s election result. Opting to be introduced by Jewish former Labour MP Ruth Smeeth, Starmer’s less-than-subtle message was hammered home before he even uttered a word. Tasked with turning around their fortunes, newly-elected Labour leader Keir Starmer was quick to offer a diagnosis. Corbyn had been their biggest problem. | Leon Neal/Getty Images “As I promised on my first day as leader we will root out the anti-semitism that has infected our party,” he said in his opening remarks. “We’re making progress — and we will root it out, once and for all.” Given Starmer’s historic election victory last year, Badenoch’s team might feel the man they want to replace was on to something. 2019: JO SWINSON SORRY FOR … EVERYTHING As leader of Westminster’s fourth-largest party when the 2019 election was called, Liberal Democrat MP Jo Swinson raised plenty of eyebrows when she talked up her chances during the campaign of being the next British prime minister But while initially viewed as a sign of confidence in their ability to seize on anti-Brexit sentiment, the PM-in-waiting gimmick soon morphed into utter delusion among elements of the party who appeared genuinely convinced they were destined for a historic victory. With resources diverted toward clearly unwinnable seats, election night brought humiliation for the party as their clutch of 12 seats dropped to 11. Rather than walking into Downing Street as the next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson walked out of the East Dunbartonshire sports hall where her votes were counted, unemployed. Rather than walking into Downing Street as the next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson walked out of the East Dunbartonshire sports hall where her votes were counted, unemployed. | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images While Swinson said she was “so sorry” for the result, she insisted she did not “regret” being the “unapologetic voice” of anti-Brexit sentiment during the campaign, instead attacking her opponents for dodging media scrutiny and allowing racism to fester. It was an unusually defiant speech given the disastrous result, and served as proof to party insiders that Swinson refused to buy into the old adage: Pride comes before a fall. That fall would come just months later when an internal party review branded the campaign she led as a “high-speed car crash.”

BAKU, Azerbaijan — The European Union teamed up with 11 countries Thursday in announcing a commitment to “ambitious” new climate plans — but the U.S., an architect of the initiative, did not join them. Each of the governments said they would soon set new targets to cut greenhouse gas pollution by 2035 that are aligned with stopping the climate from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Besides the EU, the coalition included Canada, Mexico, the U.K. and Norway. POLITICO reported last week that the United States had dropped its participation in the coalition, an action that appeared to reflect the new political realities in Washington given Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. Senior U.S. climate adviser John Podesta said the Biden administration welcomed the leadership displayed by the countries in the coalition, but did not respond to a question about why the United States was not included. “We continue to work with countries to set ambitious climate targets with rapid emissions reductions that are required to secure a safer, cleaner planet for ourselves and our children,” Podesta said in an email to POLITICO, adding that the U.S. is “hard at work” to set its own 2035 target. Asked at a press conference on Thursday why the U.S. was not part of the coalition, EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said: “There is a larger group of countries looking into joining us. … Having said that, we would really plead particularly with the largest economies and those emitting the most to do something that is similar to what we’re doing.” Setting a new round of pollution targets is a key requirement for all countries signed onto the Paris Agreement on climate change, a 2015 pact that Trump has said he will leave. Those goals “will be the final barricade for every nation in its fight-to-the-death against climate impacts getting more brutal each year,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said in a speech that was unrelated to Thursday’s announcement. Joining the pledge, Mexico’s secretary of environment and natural resources, Alicia Bárcena, lauded the country’s “renewed commitment to ambitious climate action” under President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist. Of the 12 backers of the initiative, one — the U.K. — has already submitted a new target, while four said that they had reached net-zero already. The governments that pledged to come up with new targets were Canada, Chile, Georgia, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland plus the European Union. Switzerland said it would do so by February. The seven countries said they would ensure their upcoming climate plans included targets that covered all greenhouse gases and every sector of the economy. They also promised the targets would either be a straight line or steeper path between their emissions today and their ultimate goals to reach net zero by 2050 — or slightly later in the case of some of the developing countries. The countries that claimed to have reached net zero emissions already, thanks to the forests that soak up the emissions from their small economies, are Bhutan, Madagascar, Panama and Suriname. In a joint statement, their leaders called “on the rest of the world to rise to the occasion, match our ambition, and embrace transformational changes.”