Andrew Duff is a former member of the European Parliament and is a senior fellow
at the European Policy Center. Luis Garicano is a former member of the European
Parliament and a professor of public policy at the London School of Economics.
U.S. President Donald Trump has undermined NATO, probably fatally. He’s treated
the EU institutions with contempt and has stymied Ukraine’s efforts to assert
its own sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Amid this shifting geopolitical landscape, Europe desperately needs to react,
rapidly and decisively, to ensure its future security. Unfortunately, Hungarian
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is determined to avoid such resolute action.
Nursing a deep grudge against the EU, the Hungarian leader prides himself on
disrespecting the bloc’s liberal democratic values and is cavalier about rule of
law, failing to cooperate with his bloc partners. He openly opposes the EU’s
external security policy and has become an apologist for Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
The EU has few options to address this crisis. And while current mechanisms have
so far proven inadequate, a fresh interpretation of existing treaty provisions
might just offer a solution.
Let’s be clear: Orbán’s obstructionism is nothing new, and the bloc has already
been trying to work around him using ad hoc measures. The Hungarian leader is a
deeply mistrusted member in the European Council, as is European Commissioner
for Health and Animal Welfare Olivér Várhelyi. And earlier this month, the
European Council took the unprecedented step of issuing a communiqué on Ukraine
signed by 26 members, not 27.
Moreover, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has begun conducting
business via select groups of trusted Commissioners rather than the whole
college, building coalitions of the willing by excluding the unwilling.
Still, the EU has so far been reluctant to exploit the provisions in its
treaties that “as a last resort” provide for enhanced cooperation between groups
of countries willing to integrate faster (Article 20, Treaty of the EU). But
that last resort has now been reached, which means we can expect more policy
initiatives of this type in the future.
Such development of common foreign, security and defense policies will likely be
led by an avant-garde group of politically willing and militarily capable member
countries. And in this area, the treaties offer more permission than
prohibition.
For example, Orbán and his allies cannot prevent certain countries from
integrating their armed forces (Article 42(6)), and non-EU members like Norway
and the U.K. can also join the bloc’s joint arms procurement and military
missions — with or without NATO.
Here, Ukraine’s membership bid presents an early test case of the bloc’s resolve
to outwit internal opposition: Joining the EU must be an essential part of any
Ukrainian peace deal, and by abstaining in the European Council, Orbán has
already allowed accession negotiations to begin. For swift progress, however,
the EU would need to drop its procedural rules from 2020, which allow members to
veto the opening and closing of each chapter in the enlargement process, and
return to the original treaty that only permits national vetoes at the beginning
and end of the process (Article 49).
This is achievable. Unless a qualified majority in the Council calls a halt, a
concerted initiative by von der Leyen, supported by European Council President
António Costa and implemented by the Council of the EU presidencies of Poland
and Denmark in 2025, could tear up the old rule book.
Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico would protest, of course, but their bluff must
be called.
Today, Viktor Orbán’s main ally is Robert Fico, and this mutual protection pact
has paralyzed the EU. | Zuzana Gogova/Getty Images
Even if all this comes to pass, though, these approaches offer only partial
solutions, and they fail to address the fundamental problem: They work around
Orbán rather than confronting him directly.
We already know that next year’s negotiations on reforming the EU’s system of
own resources and its multi-annual financial framework will get nowhere. And
those with ambitions for the bloc’s evolution will be forced to invent new
financing methods outside the EU budget.
We need a much more decisive approach — and there’s where Article 7 comes in.
Article 7 permits the European Council to “determine the existence of a serious
and persistent breach” of the values of Article 2, with a view to depriving the
offending country of voting rights in the Council. But the deployment of this
sanction requires a unanimous vote among all other members, and Orbán has always
been able to rely on other fellow national populists.
Today, his main ally is Fico, and this mutual protection pact has paralyzed the
EU.
However, a more creative reading of Article 7 offers a path forward. The treaty
specifies that sanctions require unanimity of all other member states — but what
if two countries were to face proceedings simultaneously?
The exact wording is as follows: “Acting by unanimity on a proposal by one third
of the Member States or by the Commission and after obtaining the consent of the
European Parliament, may determine the existence of a serious and persistent
breach by a Member State of the values referred to in Article 2.” The unanimity
is calculated excluding the state “in question.”
The treaty wording refers to “the Member State in question” in the singular, and
doesn’t explicitly address situations where multiple countries are
simultaneously under scrutiny. However, this singular language doesn’t preclude
concurrent proceedings against two countries, especially when their mutual
protection pact effectively renders the article toothless.
Moreover, distinguished legal scholars like Dimitry Kochenov, Laurent Pech and
Kim Lane Scheppele have argued that if two countries (e.g., Hungary and
Slovakia) are sanctioned in parallel, each of them is excluded from the vote on
the other, thereby neutralizing their ability to veto one another’s punishment.
The rationale for this approach is a teleological interpretation of the article
in question, which is intended to uphold EU values. Thus, it shouldn’t be
providing a shield for autocrats via mutual impunity. And such a reading —
focused on purpose and effectiveness — would support interpreting Article 7(2)
flexibly, so that rule-of-law violators can’t exploit the unanimity rule to
escape accountability.
It also aligns with the principle that treaty provisions shouldn’t be applied in
a way that defeats their effectiveness.
The strategy carries risks, of course, as Hungary and Slovakia would likely
challenge this procedure before the Court of Justice of the European Union.
However, the court has consistently supported the EU’s fundamental values in
recent judgments, such as in the 2021 Hungary v. European Parliament case
(C-650/18).
This interpretation stays within the letter of the law, while addressing its
exploitative loophole. It transforms Article 7 from a theoretical threat into a
practical tool. And, crucially, it simply requires political courage — not
treaty change.
Europe now faces the greatest challenge since its formation. The continent’s
peace, prosperity and core values depend on confronting those who would destroy
it from within, and if the bloc fails to act decisively, it risks remaining
caught between a dysfunctional confederation and the “ever closer union” it
hopes to become.
This proposed simultaneous suspension strategy offers a pathway forward. The
legal tools to address this crisis exist — Europe just needs to use them, and
meet the moment with creativity and courage.
Tag - EU reform
Keep your moccasins on and the espresso at the ready because things are about to
get awfully Italian in Brussels.
Giorgia Meloni’s man, Raffaele Fitto, hits the auditorium to defend his
expertise and diplomatic credentials while being considered for an executive
vice president role overseeing some €400 billion in funding for poorer regions.
And things could get firey. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has
already let it be known she wants the distribution of these so-called “cohesion
funds” — which apply to various sectors including transport and agriculture — to
be subjected to conditionality, something that’s already upset everyone from
Polish farmers to Greek laborers.
There could be Italian political drama too. Fitto hails from the right-wing
Brothers of Italy which vocally opposed von der Leyen’s reappointment as
president, a fact that enraged the pan-European Socialists and Democrats
grouping. Many worry about the party’s fascist leanings, even though Fitto
himself is considered a moderate. Whether party politics or Italian patriotism
prevails will be the question on the day.
We’ll be bringing you all the live action from 9 a.m. CET on Nov. 12.
Background reading:
* How the hearings work
* Who’s most likely to get the chop
PS. If you want to follow more of the action from the hearings, our reporters
will be bringing you blow-by-blow updates from all 26 commissioner interviews
here.